NIT Final Betting Preview & Pick: Stanford vs. Minnesota
By Covers.com
Stanford Cardinal vs. Minnesota Gophers (Pick 'em, 131)
THE STORY: The spotlight figures to be on two freshman point guards when sixth-seeded Minnesota faces third-seeded Stanford in the NIT championship game at Madison Square Garden. Stanford’s Chasson Randle leads his team in scoring while shooting 44 percent from the field, and Andre Hollins scored a team-high 20 points in the Gophers’ 68-67 overtime victory over Washington in the semifinals. Minnesota is looking for its third NIT crown after winning in 1993 and 1998, although the latter was vacated due to an ineligible player. Stanford, which won the 1991 NIT title, improved to 11-4 in six NIT appearances with its 74-64 victory over Massachusetts on Tuesday.
ABOUT MINNESOTA (23-14): The Gophers were 6-12 in the Big Ten and lost seven of their final nine games before winning three straight road games to reach the NIT semifinals. Against Washington, Rodney Williams had 18 points and nine rebounds despite playing much of the second half in foul trouble. “It seems like when he gets off to a good start we play well,” said coach Tubby Smith. Williams needs 16 points to break Voshon Lenard’s school record for most points in a postseason tournament. Lenard had 99 points in the 1993 NIT. Hollins, who was once recruited by Stanford, is averaging 17.8 points in the NIT.
ABOUT STANFORD (25-11): Josh Owens had 15 points and tied a career high with 12 rebounds against Massachusetts, and he’ll need another strong effort against the Gophers. Owens will likely be asked to neutralize Williams, who was called one of the top five athletes in college basketball by Stanford coach Johnny Dawkins. Guard Anthony Brown scored a season-high 18 points against the Minutemen, including a key 3-pointer late in the game. The backcourt trio of Randle, Brown and Aaron Bright scored 43 of the team’s 74 points in the win. The title game could be a defensive battle, with Stanford allowing an average of 63.5 points and Minnesota holding teams to an average of 64.5.
TRENDS:
- Stanford is 4-1 against the spread in its last five neutral-site games.
- Minnesota is 7-0-1 against the spread in its last eight.
- The over is 6-1 in Stanford's last seven.
TIP-INS
1. Minnesota center Ralph Sampson III has missed the last six games with a sprained right knee, and his status is doubtful for the NIT final.
2. Stanford is just the fourth team to play at New York’s Madison Square Garden in both the Preseason and Postseason NIT during the same season.
3. The teams share two common opponents, Southern California and Washington. Stanford was 2-0 against the Trojans, and the Gophers won 55-40. The Cardinal lost 76-63 at Washington, while Minnesota beat the Huskies on Tuesday.
PICK: Cardinal
NIT Championship
By Chris David
VegasInsider.com
Even though the Final Four doesn’t tip until Saturday, college basketball followers can build their bankroll on Thursday with the NIT Championship. This year’s finale will pit the Big 10 and Pac 12 against one another as Minnesota and Stanford will square off from Madison Square Garden. ESPN will provide coverage of this tip at 7:00 p.m. ET.
Gamblers could be scratching their heads on this affair since the Golden Gophers and Cardinal have been cashing tickets left and right lately.
Minnesota nearly coughed up a lead to Washington in the semifinals but still managed to earn a 68-67 overtime decision. The win for the Gophers was their fourth straight in the NIT and what’s even more impressive is that all of the victories came outside of Minneapolis.
VegasInsider.com handicapper Brian Edwards is one of the many bettors that have been riding the Golden Gophers. “I feel like I’ve been like stealing money by backing the Gophers in the NIT. Behind the brilliant play of Rodney Williams, they have won outright as underdogs at LaSalle, at Miami and at Middle Tennessee. I felt like the wrong team was favored on Tuesday and sure enough Minnesota silenced a Washington squad that played its first three in the NIT at home.”
“Tubby Smith's team has played outstanding since the Big Ten Tournament when it beat Northwestern and lost a heartbreaker to Michigan in overtime.”
Including Tuesday’s win, Minnesota has covered eight straight games. We will note that some gamblers late to the dance might’ve had the Gophers -1 but the opener had Washington favored before late action came in on the Big 10 squad.
As Edwards mentioned, the catalyst for Minnesota has been Rodney Williams. The forward posted 18 points and nine boards in the win over the Huskies and he’s scored in double figures in every game during Minnesota’s ATS run.
Helping Minnesota and Williams has been the play of the brothers Andre and Austin Hollins. The pair combined for 32 points against the Huskies, with the freshman (Andre) putting in 20. Head coach Tubby Smith appears to have a winning formula with this threesome, especially after center Ralph Sampson III went down with a knee injury.
In hindsight, the loss of Sampson II was the best thing to happen during Minnesota’s run since the big man was anything but big in the paint. Fortunately for Smith, Williams is a junior and the Hollins brothers are underclassmen. Hopefully they’re ready to go in 2012-2013 season.
Smith and the talented trio could meet their match on Thursday when they face a talent and young Stanford squad. The majority of VegasInsider.com has 14 handicappers with selections on the NIT semifinal between Massachusetts and Stanford. Only one individual had the Cardinal, Antony Dinero and he drilled the game.
His analysis said, “The Cardinal should be able to execute their offense fluidly against a Massachusetts team that struggles on the defensive end and is going to get too wrapped up with trading baskets thanks to their explosive backcourt of Chaz Williams and Jesse Morgan. Ultimately, Stanford's strength as a collective unit and an advantage in overall depth should make the difference, as Chasson Randle is blossoming into a star and will rise to the occasion against Williams.”
The Cardinal led 36-33 at halftime and outscored the Minutemen 38-31 in the final 20 minutes for a fairly easy 10-point win (74-64). Stanford didn’t shoot well from the floor (37%) but they did receive a solid performance from Anthony Brown, who poured in a season-high 18 points.
The 74 points put up by Stanford was its lowest total so far during the NIT. Prior to this performance, the Cardinal scored 76, 92 and 84 points in the first three rounds but all those games were played at Maples Pavilion in Palo Alto.
Along with freshman sensation Chasson Randle, who Dinero mentioned above, Stanford has received great play from sophomores Aaron Bright and Dwight Powell. Plus, senior Josh Owens has provided the muscle in the frontcourt.
Head coach Johnny Dawkins might not have as much recognition as Smith at Minnesota but he’s been all business about the cross-country trip to New York. “We want to be champions,” Dawkins said. “We want to be able to put a banner up in Maples.”
Oddsmakers opened the game at a pick ‘em and the line has held steady. The Greek have Stanford laying 1 while Wynn Las Vegas has Minnesota giving up 1 point.
On neutral courts, Minnesota has gone 4-2 both SU and ATS, while Stanford owns a 3-2 SU and 4-1 ATS mark. This is the second trip to Madison Square Garden for the Cardinal who played in the NIT Season Tip-Off in November. Stanford ran past Oklahoma State (82-67) in the semifinal before coming up short against Syracuse (63-69) in the championship.
Since the current form for both teams is equal, looking at competition is a good factor to analyze. It’s well known that the Pac 12 was down this season but Stanford did beat the conference tournament champion Colorado handily (84-64, 74-50) twice, plus Dawkins team has wins against NCAA Tournament teams in N.C. State and Colorado State. The Big 10 was arguably the best overall conference this season but that had nothing to do with Minnesota’s performance. The Golden Gophers went 6-12 against the 11 other members and only one win (Indiana, 77-74) was noteworthy. If you look at Minnesota’s 12-1 start to the season, you’ll agree that they played nothing but cupcakes.
The total on this matchup opened at 131 and it hasn’t moved. Stanford was on a 6-0 ‘over’ run prior to Tuesday’s game going ‘under.’ On the season, the Cardinal has seen the ‘over’ go 18-15 and that includes an 8-5 mark in non-conference games. Minnesota has leaned slightly to the ‘over’ (17-16).
The Big 10 won the NIT Championship in 2008 and 2009, with Ohio State and Penn State taking home the titles. Minnesota won the NIT in 1998 but it had to vacate the championship due to academic issues. Stanford captured the NIT in 1991.
NCAAB Preview
Minnesota played four starters 37+ minutes Tuesday, three played 40+ in tense win over Washington, where they blew 12-point halftime lead in 68-67 OT win. Gophers are playing 7th straight game away from home. Stanford didn't play anyone more than 33 minutes Tuesday; only two guys played more than 28, in foulfest against UMass. Cardinal are 2-1 on this court this season, with only loss to Syracuse by 6. Minnesota is 1-9 this season against teams ranked in top 30. Stanford is 2-3 against reams ranked in top 40. Coaching edge goes to Minnesota.
Armadillosports.com
STANFORD (25 - 11) vs. MINNESOTA (23 - 14)
Top Trends for this game.
STANFORD is 2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) in a neutral court game where the total is 130 to 134.5 since 1997.
MINNESOTA is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) in March games this season.
MINNESOTA is 8-2 ATS (+5.8 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games this season.
STANFORD is 8-2 ATS (+5.8 Units) in all tournament games this season.
MINNESOTA is 11-21 ATS (-12.1 Units) when the total is 130 to 139.5 over the last 2 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.