College Knowledge
-- George Mason (-4.5) blew 20-point first half lead, lost 58-54 at home to Drexel Jan 31, scoring five points in last 10:00 of game; Mason lost last two visits here, by 13-7 points. Road team won Patriots' last four games; Mason, Drexel are both 2-3 in last five games; Dragons are 2-4 at home in CAA, with only home wins vs Georgia State/JMU. CAA faves of 3 or less points are 14-4 against spread, 7-4 at home.
-- Minnesota shot 31% inside arc, lost 45-44 (+3.5) at Wisconsin Jan 26, Badgers' 10th win in last 13 series games, winning the last four by 8-7-7-1. Wisky is 4-2 in last six visits here. Gophers lost six of last eight tilts, scoring 50-53 in last two. Big Dozen home favorites of 6 or less points are 10-6 vs spread. Badgers won last three games, last two in OT; they are 3-2 on Big Dozen road- their league losses are by 4-2-9 points.
-- Denver (-10) beat Utah State 68-57 at home Jan 19, making 10-19 on arc, 59% inside it; Pioneers never trailed in game, led by 22 with 12:07 to play. Denver is 11-1 in last 12 games, winning last four, all by 14+; they are 5-2 on WAC road. Utah State won its last three games, by 10-22-27 points; they're 3-2 at home in WAC, winning by 9-7-6 points. WAC home underdogs are 3-14 against the spread.
-- Cal was outscored 23-5 on foul line, went 0-13 from arc in 79-65 loss at UCLA (+7.5) Jan 3, just second Bruin win in last seven series games. UCLA won six of last seven visits here, but split last six games overall; they're 3-1 on Pac-12 road, losing only at ASU. Pac-12 home favorites of 5 or less points are 7-18 vs spread. Cal won three of last four games; they're 3-1 at home in league- this is their first home game in 18 days.
-- UMass won four of last five games, is 2-2 on A-16 road, losing by 8 at Saint Louis, 1 at Charlotte; Minutemen are 13-3 in last 16 games after 3-3 start that included losses to NC State/Miami. VCU won its last three games by 6-16-7 points; they're 3-1 in A-16 home games, winning by 12-6-16 points. Last two UMass losses were by combined total of four points. A-16 double digit home favorites are 5-11 vs spread.
-- Arizona (-12) won controversial 92-83 OT game over Colorado Jan 3 in Tucson, when Buffs' winning hoop was ruled no good by refs, even after replays showed it was good. Three of four Pac-12 meetings in this series were decided by 1-2 points, or in OT. Colorado won five of last six games; they're 3-1 at home in league, losing only to UCLA. Wildcats won four of last five games. Pac-12 home underdogs are 10-4 vs spread.
-- Home side is 14-2 in last 16 USC-Stanford games; Trojans lost eight of last nine visits here, with six of eight losses by 6+. Stanford (-3) got beat 71-69 at USC Jan 3, after leading by 9 at halftime; SC shot 53.5% inside arc for game, won last three games overall, by 4-4-11. Stanford is 4-1 at home in league, with only loss to Washington. Pac-12 home faves of 8+ points are 5-13 against the spread.
-- St Mary's (+9) lost 83-78 at Gonzaga Jan 10, game Zags led 46-28 at half; Gonzaga is 5-4 in last nine visits here, but teams split last eight in series, with Gaels winning in WCC tourney LY, Bulldogs won their last six games, five by 14+ points; they're 5-0 on WCC road, with three wins by 16+/ WCC home teams are 1-10 vs spread in game with spread of 5 or less points. St Mary's won last nine games, with five of nine on road; they're 5-0 in WCC home games, with four wins by 12+ points.
-- Belmont (-15) beat Tennessee State 78-66 at home Jan 19, making 11 of 25 from arc while turning ball over only seven (+9) times; Bruins are 5-1 on OVC road, with four wins by 11+ points, only loss at Murray State last week. State is 5-0 at home in OVC, with all five wins by 6+ points, but they've lost four of last six games overall, are turning the ball over 22% of time. OVC home underdogs of 5+ points are 5-9 vs spread.
-- Canisius made 13-19 from arc, beat Loyola 91-79 (-3.5) Jan 31 out in Buffalo, offsetting -13 (16-3) turnover ratio; Griffins are 6-2 in last eight games, 4-3 on MAAC road- they scored 76+ points in four of last five wins. Loyola is just 2-3 in last five games, but is 5-2 in its MAAC home games, losing to Niagara/Iona. MAAC home favorites of 5 or less points are 8-12 against the spread.
-- Davidson (-10) beat Charleston 77-68 at home Jan 19, shooting 58% inside arc, outscoring Cougars 21-10 on foul line; Wildcats won their last eight games, seven by 9+ points- they're 5-1 on SoCon road, with four of five wins by 8+. Cougars won last six games, are 5-1 in its SoCon home games, losing by 5 to Samford. Under is 4-0-1 in Davidson's last five games, 1-4 in last five Charleston tilts. Southern Conference home underdogs of 8 or less points are 10-5 vs spread.
-- North Dakota State (-3.5) got outscored 21-4 from foul line in a 50-42 loss at Western Illinois Jan 19; Bison were 4-5 on line, Western 21-36. State is 6-0 in Summit home games, with five wins by 8+ points- they've won three of last four games overall. Western won four of its last five games; its only Summit losses are by 7-6 points. Summit League home favorites are 11-16 vs spread, 4-9 if laying single digits.
-- Montana was 30-33 from foul line in 76-74 (-3) home win vs Weber State Jan 26, offsetting Wildcats' 63% shooting inside arc. Griz won last 14 games, is 6-0 on Big Sky road-- home team won last seven regular series meetings, with Montana losing last seven regular season visits to Ogden (they won Big Sky tourney on this floor in '10). Wildcats won last fou games, all by 15+ points; they're 6-0 at hone in Big Sky games. Big Sky home favorites of less than 7 points are 22-11 vs spread.
Armadillosports.com
Games to Watch
By David Schwab
VegasInsider.com
No. 6 Gonzaga Bulldogs vs. Saint Mary's Gaels
Gonzaga could crack the top five this week in the national rankings after posting its 23rd victory of the season against just two losses. It remained a perfect 10-0 in the West Coast Conference with a 74-55 drubbing of Loyola Marymount this past Saturday as a 24½-point home favorites. The Bulldogs have failed to cover in four of their last six games and are 12-10-1 ATS overall. The total has stayed UNDER in seven of their last eight games. Gonzaga has one of the most potent offenses in Division I with 78.6 points a game while shooting 50.7 percent from the field. Kelly Olynyk has led the way with 17.7 points a game.
St. Mary's will look to avenge an earlier 83-78 loss to Gonzaga as a nine-point road underdog. It was its only conference loss of the season to remain neck and neck with the Bulldogs in the standings at 10-1. Overall the Gaels are 21-4 SU and a perfect 13-0 at home. They are 12-9-1 ATS this season and 5-6 ATS at home with the total going over in three of their last five games overall. Matthew Dellavedova is averaging 15.9 points and 6.6 assists for St. Mary's squad that is scoring 77.8 points a game while shooting an impressive 49.3 percent from the floor.
Thursday's Road Tests
By Brian Edwards
VegasInsider.com
Arizona at Colorado
These schools played a controversial thriller in Tucson earlier this season. As of Wednesday night, most betting shops had Arizona (20-3 straight up, 10-11 against the spread) installed as a 2.5-point favorite for the rematch.
On Jan. 3, Colorado (16-7 SU, 13-8 ATS) was poised to hand Arizona its first loss of the season as a 12.5-point road underdog. However, Sabatino Chen’s 3-pointer that banked home at the buzzer was waved off even though replays indicated that Chen got the shot off in time. Therefore, the game went to overtime and Sean Miller’s team eventually captured a 92-83 win.
Mark Lyons scored a game-high 24 points in the previous win over CU. The transfer from Xavier made all 10 of his attempts from the free-throw line, including a pair that forced the extra session. Kevin Parron added 16 points and eight rebounds for the winners. In the losing effort, Askia Booker scored 18 points and dished out five assists.
Lyons is averaging team-highs in scoring (15.4 points per game) and assists (3.0 APG). He scored 16 points, making 4-of-7 shots from 3-point land, in Sunday’s stunning 77-69 loss to California as a 13-point home favorite. The Wildcats had won four in a row prior to the loss the Bears. Nevertheless, they are 8-3 and in a three-way tie for first place in the Pac-12 with Oregon and UCLA.
Tad Boyle’s team has won nine of its 10 home games, posting a 5-3 spread record. The Buffaloes are 6-5 straight up in league play. They are in their first spot as home underdogs this year.
Arizona is No. 9 in the RPI Rankings. The Wildcats are 5-2 SU against RPI Top 50 opponents, 9-3 against Top 100 foes.
CU is 18th in the RPI Rankings, going 2-3 against the RPI Top 50, 7-6 against the RPI Top 100.
Arizona owns a 4-3 spread record in seven games as a road favorite.
The ‘under’ is 11-6-1 overall for Arizona even though it has watched the ‘over’ hit in three consecutive games. The ‘under’ is 5-2 in the Wildcats’ seven true road assignments.
The ‘under’ is 9-5 overall for CU, 2-2 in its four home games with a total.
Sportsbook.ag has 16/1 odds for Arizona to win the national championship. Colorado’s future number is 200/1.
Tip-off is slated for 10:00 p.m. Eastern.
Gonzaga at Saint Mary’s
As of Wednesday night, most books were listing Gonzaga (23-2 SU, 12-10-1 ATS) as a one-point favorite.
Saint Mary’s (21-4 SU, 12-9-1 ATS) is unbeaten in 13 home games but is just 5-6 ATS. If the Gaels close as home underdogs, it will be a first for this season. In fact, they haven’t even been single-digit home favorites yet. Randy Bennett’s team has been favored by at least 12 (vs. Harvard in a 70-69 non-covering victory) in each home outing.
Since losing 83-78 at Gonzaga on Jan. 10, Saint Mary’s has won nine consecutive games while going 5-3-1 versus the number. The Gaels are coming off a 74-64 win at San Diego as 10-point road ‘chalk.’ Matthew Dellavedova led the cause with 19 points, seven assists and three rebounds, while Brad Waldoe chipped in with 18 points on 8-of-9 shooting from the field.
Dellavedova is one of the nation’s premier guards. The senior from Australia, who played with former Gaels’ star Patty Mills in this past summer’s Olympics, is averaging 15.9 points and 6.6 assists per game.
Gonzaga has won six in a row since getting beaten at the buzzer at Butler on Jan. 19. The Bulldogs’ only other loss this year came vs. Illinois on Dec. 8.
Gonzaga beat Loyola-Marymount 74-55 Saturday as a 24.5-point home favorite. Kelly Olynyk and Kevin Pangos led the way for the Bulldogs with 20 points apiece. Elias Harris added 16 points and 10 rebounds.
Olynyk leads the ‘Zags in scoring (17.7 PPG), field-goal percentage (65.2%) and blocked shots (25). Harris is averaging 14.8 points and 7.2 rebounds per game, while Pangos averages 11.9 points and 3.5 assists per contest.
Mark Few’s squad is 12th in the RPI Rankings. The Bulldogs are 4-2 against the RPI Top 50, 8-2 vs. Top 100 opponents.
Saint Mary’s is ranked 49th in the RPI Rankings, going 0-1 against RPI Top 50 opponents and 3-2 vs. the RPI Top 100.
Gonzaga has 18/1 odds to win the national title per Sportsbook.ag.
The ‘under’ is 12-8 overall for Gonzaga, 7-1 in its last eight contests.
Totals have been a wash for Saint Mary’s overall (8-8) and at home (4-4).
ESPN2 will have the telecast at 11:00 p.m. Eastern.
B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets
Kentucky announced Wednesday morning that Nerlens Noel suffered a torn ACL in Tuesday’s loss at Florida and will miss the remainder of the season. Noel is scheduled to have surgery in 2-3 weeks when the swelling subsides. The 6-10 freshman will most likely be the No. 1 pick in this summer’s NBA Draft despite the injury. Noel finished the season averaging 10.6 points, 9.6 rebounds and 4.5 blocked shots per game.
Despite Tuesday’s blowout loss at arch-rival Michigan St., Michigan remains the plus-450 ‘chalk’ to win the national championship at Sportsbook.ag. Florida, Miami and Indiana share 5/1 odds, while Duke is at 8/1. Louisville’s future number is 10/1, followed by Michigan St. and Syracuse, both of whom own 15/1 odds.
With thoughts of making a profit through potential hedges during the NCAA Tournament, the most attractive future numbers in my opinion belong to Butler (40/1), Minnesota (60/1), VCU (60/1) and Wisconsin (80/1).
As of Wednesday night, Stanford was listed as a nine-point home favorite vs. Southern Cal. ESPNU will provide television coverage Thursday night at 11:00 p.m. Eastern.
Thursday's Top 25 NCAAB Betting Notes
Covers.com
Northwestern Wildcats at Ohio State Buckeyes (-17)
After facing a pair of top-three teams back-to-back, No. 14 Ohio State gets a small step down in competition when it hosts Northwestern on Thursday. The Wildcats have dropped three of their last four but have the talent to give the Buckeyes fits and are motivated to earn the type of signature road win that might get them a second look from the NCAA tournament selection committee. Ohio State is hoping for better defense than it's showed lately.
The Buckeyes have surrendered season-high point totals in each of the last two games, culminating in an 81-68 home loss to No. 1 Indiana on Sunday. Ohio State has struggled to contain guards like Trey Burke and Tim Hardaway Jr. of Michigan and Victor Oladipo of Indiana in the last two losses. Northwestern’s Reggie Hearn will be the one looking for those same holes on Thursday. Hearn leads the Wildcats in scoring at 14.2 points but has struggled from the field lately.
Wisconsin Badgers at Minnesota Golden Gophers (-5)
Wisconsin and Minnesota combined for 89 total points when the teams played in late January and another low-scoring game figures to be on tap when the Golden Gophers host the No. 19 Badgers on Thursday. Wisconsin prevailed 45-44 in the Jan. 26 contest. The Badgers enter on a three-game winning streak and are one of five teams in the Big Ten title mix. Minnesota has lost six of its past eight games.
The Golden Gophers could use a late-season turnaround to assure they will be part of the NCAA tournament field. Minnesota is 12-2 at home but fell to Illinois last Saturday. The Badgers aren’t viewed in the same vein as Indiana or Michigan State – and even Michigan, which has lost four Big Ten games – in terms of contenders for the regular-season crown. Senior center Jared Berggren has a different view. “I think we’re up toward the top of the standings right now,” Berggren said. “There is a lot of basketball left to play, but I think we’ve proven that we can beat anyone at any time.”
St. John's Red Storm at Louisville Cardinals (-17)
Louisville figures that Thursday’s contest against visiting St. John’s will be shorter than Saturday’s five-overtime loss to Notre Dame. The No. 12 Cardinals have had time to recuperate from the agonizing defeat and are seeking a strong finish to the regular season after losing four of the past seven games. St. John’s coach Steve Lavin will miss his second straight contest following the death of his 82-year-old father. The Red Storm have lost two of three games.
Assistant coach Rico Hines will again coach St. John’s. The Red Storm lost to Syracuse on Saturday. Louisville let a late eight-point lead in regulation get away in the loss to Notre Dame, and also squandered other opportunities to win in the overtimes. “We’re just disappointed,” junior forward Luke Hancock said afterward. “We had so many chances to win that game and didn’t execute the way we would have liked.”
Arizona Wildcats at Colorado Buffaloes (+2.5)
Arizona’s loss to California in its last game not only damaged its hopes of earning a No. 1 seed in the upcoming NCAA tournament, but it knocked the ninth-ranked Wildcats into a three-way tie for first place in the tightly-contested Pac-12 Conference.
Arizona looks to cap a season sweep when it visits Colorado on Thursday. The Buffaloes nearly beat the Wildcats in the first meeting when Sabatino Chen banked in a 3-pointer at the end of regulation, but officials waved it off after reviewing the video and Arizona went on to the controversial win, 92-83, in overtime. Colorado enters on a two-game winning streak and has won five of its last six.
Gonzaga Bulldogs at St. Mary's Gaels (+1)
The top two programs in the West Coast Conference battle again Thursday when No. 3 Gonzaga visits streaking Saint Mary’s. The Bulldogs notched an 83-76 home victory against the Gaels on Jan. 10 and now the scene shifts to Moraga, where Saint Mary’s is undefeated in 13 home games this season. The Gaels have won nine consecutive games and are a half-game behind the Zags in the WCC race. Gonzaga has won six straight outings.
Bulldogs star Kelly Olynyk scored 31 points in last month’s meeting as Gonzaga built an 18-point halftime lead and held off a Saint Mary’s charge. Gaels standout Matthew Dellavedova struggled to 14 points on 4-of-15 shooting. Gonzaga is 7-1 on the road, the lone loss being a last-second defeat at Butler. Six of the last seven Saint Mary’s wins have been by double digits. “We’re getting there,” Gaels coach Randy Bennett said after Saturday’s victory over San Diego. “I think we’re becoming more consistent and that’s becoming our identity, which is what needs to happen.”
Thursday Cliff Notes
By Dave Essler
Gonzaga at St. Mary's: Obviously Gonzaga with the name recognition and undefeated in Conference play. What's new there. St. Mary's one conference loss was to Gonzaga by five, in a game they were down big in the first half. I would think that would give them some confidence, no matter what, in this game. Both teams made well over 60% of their two-point shots, and both sucked from deep, while St. Mary's did dominate their offensive glass. Having said that, I may lean in that direction simply because they did everything BUT win that last game. Last year these guys both covered their home court easily, and St. Marys' won the Conference Tournament in OT. St. Mary's a bit more experienced and Gonzaga considerably bigger which made me wonder how the got hammered on the boards last game. Clearly that will be a point of emphasis for them in this game. To me, at this point, this is a total coin flip. Honestly, if you made me bet this game, I'd follow the money if I could find it. The total has already come down a point, but I tend to think it may go over since St.Mary's may want to push the pace a bit. Probably all depends on the last minute and the score.
Arizona at Colorado: Rematch of an overtime game that Colorado lost earlier this season. Colorado's only home loss was by three to UCLA, and they've got six of the last eight games at home, so they may be one of the better bets going forward. They are young, but they did play a brutal non conference schedule, so they're not going to be intimidated at home. 'Cats have all the pieces to make a deep run in the post season, but this is just one game. If Arizona has a weakness it's defensively defending the perimeter, but as fate would have it Colorado is far more of an inside team. 'Zona will shoot from anywhere, and Colorado's three point defense is third in the Pac-10 and their 2-point defense is numero uno. Because Colorado knows they probably won't win a track meet, I do lean to the under in this one.
Wisconsin at Minnesota: Badgers are only one game back of Indiana and Michigan State in the loss column, beat Indiana, and do have a game left with Michigan State. Minnesota may be another team with a bunch of losses not to be taken too lightly, although I still remember taking them against Michigan. FML on that one. Badgers beat Minnesota in a 45-44 thriller a few weeks back. Badgers come back home to face Ohio State Sunday, so the spot says Gophers here, perhaps since Wisconsin had played and won two straight overtime games. Tough to sustain that emotion again on the road. However, Gophers three point defense is 12th in the Conference and Badgers have the #1 defense in terms of efficiency in the Big Ten. SOME of that is due to their slow pace and a lot of home games. Stats have deeper meaning. Have to revert back to the emotion of the Badgers and can they sustain it, and have to lean Gophers to even this year's score.
UCLA at Cal: Bruins are playing up to their preseason potential/hype and Cal is really not. However, Cal has played a great schedule and at home have only lost in Conference to Washington and have won three of the last four, including Oregon at home and then most recently at Arizona. Bruins fairly soft early season schedule and their youth, which may be catching up to them. Not unlike Michigan and some of these other hyped teams with tons of Freshmen that simply are playing way more basketball than a year ago, and obviously at a higher level with even more pressure. Cal will try ot slow this game down and simply pound away inside with their length, plus they've got a short bench so they don't really want a run 'n shoot game. I like Cal in this spot. They're more well rounded on defense, and if they can stop the penetration (hence free throws) then they win the game, inside, and perhaps under the number.
Denver at Utah State: I think I will not touch a USU game this season. We keep waiting for them to fall apart without Medlen and Reed and they rattle off three straight road wins. Granted those wins were against lousy teams, but they were impressive wins. They lost at Denver, the first game those two did not play. Denver is simply going to walk up the floor and shoot at three pointer when it's available to be shot. It's what they do. USU is also going to walk up the floor, but has a bit more diverse offense. Denver is at a huge size disadvantage (against almost everyone) but they can create some turnover, and that could eventually be the undoing of USU one day. I wouldn't touch a side here with someone else's money at this point, and lean under.
Davidson at CoC: Neither team is what people are used to seeing on the floor, and they are walking through the SoCon almost by default. This is a CoC team that actually lost at home, by 16 points, to NR Anderson. This is a Davidson team that lost AT Georgia Southern by thirteen. I suppose that loss isn't quite as bad. Davidson won the earlier meeting and may well be slight favorites here as well, and I could not fade them. The get to the line a ton and shoot 81% as a team in Conference this season. That's hard not to take almost anywhere. CoC can be turnover prone at times, and with nobody (OK at Elon) left on their schedule this game probably means more long term to Davidson. They can separate themselves from everyone in the SoCon.
College Basketball Point Spreads and Picks
By: The Linemakers
Sportingnews.com
Thursday night features a busy slate of college basketball. Here is point spread information and betting analysis from The Linemakers on Sporting News on two of the more intriguing matchups – Gonzaga at St. Mary’s and UMass at VCU.
Gonzaga (10-0 in-conference) and St. Mary’s (10-1) sit in first and second place, respectively, in the West Coast Conference. The Bulldogs and Gaels meet tonight for the second time this season (11:00 p.m. ET, ESPN2).
Gonzaga won the first meeting, 83-78, but didn’t cover the 9.5-point spread. The Bulldogs are a 1-point favorite on the road tonight, and the total is 142.5
Both of these teams are streaking right now – Gonzaga has won six straight since losing by one at Butler; St. Mary’s has reeled off nine straight since the loss to the Zags. Both teams are also cashing at profitable rates – Gonzaga is 12-10-1 ATS, St. Mary’s is 12-9-1.
Gonzaga has an impressive out-of-conference resume, too, with wins over Oklahoma, Kansas State, Baylor and Oklahoma State. Their two losses have been a blowout at the hands of Illinois and the aforementioned loss to Butler.
But St. Mary’s is an underrated team. With Stephen Holt back in lineup and Matthew Dellavedova, the Gaels may have the edge in the backcourt tonight.
In terms of the total, Gonzaga has gone under in seven of its last eight, but the teams combined for 161 points in the first meeting, and we look for a similar pace here and will make a play on the OVER.
Earlier, VCU is a sizable 11.5-point favorite over UMass in a showdown in the competitive Atlantic-10 (9:00 p.m. ET, CBSSN).
VCU employs a defense referred to as “Havoc,” as they’ll press you for the entire 40 minutes. That unnerves some opponents, but the Minutemen like to play a similar style.
VCU sits atop the conference at 7-2 and is 19-5 overall. But the Rams have clearly been overvalued from a point spread-perspective — they’re 6-11 ATS on the season and have failed to cover their last five games.
UMass, on the other hand, has covered five in a row.
The Linemakers Power Ratings indicate VCU is again laying too many points. The Rams should be about -9 tonight according to our numbers.
These teams, meanwhile, have both been trending UNDER. But we don’t feel too good about the total here because we envision an up-and-down game and there are some guys on the floor who can shoot the lights out.
We will, however, be holding a UMass ticket.
More leans from The Linemakers on Sporting News:
Wisconsin (+5) at Minnesota: Wisconsin has won three straight while the Gophers have lost six of their last eight. Minnesota is 12-2 on their home floor and they expect forward Rodney Williams back for this one. The Badgers won the first meeting 45-44 and you can expect another low scoring game here. Wisconsin has won four straight in the series and we feel the value is in taking the points.
Arizona at Colorado (OVER 135): Colorado should have won the first meeting but a banked in three at the buzzer was disallowed and the Wildcats went on to a 92-83 overtime win. Arizona has been good on the road, going 6-1, but they have had trouble here in the past. Colorado has won six of seven meetings with Arizona on this floor. This should be another nail biter, but we think the pace will be up tempo and favor the over in the game.