College Basketball Knowledge
NC-Wilmington won its last 11 games, closest of which was 97-94 OT win at home over Wm & Mary Jan 16; Seahawks made 13-27 on arc in snapping six-game series skid- they lost last three visits here, by 6-23-4 points. W&M allowed 92.5 ppg in losing its last two games- they won five of last six home games. CAA home favorites of 4 or less points are 4-10 vs spread. Five of last nine UNCW wins were by 6 or less points.
Hofstra made 12-24 on arc, drilled Towson 90-58 on road Jan 2, second series win in row after five straight losses. Tigers won last three visits to Long Island by 7-6-14 points. Hofstra won five of its last six road tilts; their subs play least minutes of any bench in country- they're 5-2 as a home favorite. Towson won seven of last ten games; they're 3-2 as road underdog. CAA home favorites of 7 or less points are 7-11 vs spread.
SMU split its last six games after starting season 18-0; Mustangs are 4-1 vs UConn in AAC play, losing 81-73 here LY after winning 64-55 in '14. Mustangs lost two of last three road games- they're shooting 42.3% on arc, #3 in country. UConn won seven of last nine games; they won five of last six home games, losing only to Cincinnati. AAC home favorites of less than 5 points are 4-2 against the spread.
UL-Lafayette beat Tex-Arlington 90-75 at home Jan 30, ULL outscored Mavericks 29-13 on line in game that was tied at half. Cajuns are 5-1 in series, winning 92-89/81-70 in two visits here. ULL is 9-1 in its last ten games; only three of nine wins were on road. UTA won ilast three games by 21-12-31 points; they're 4-1 at home in Sun Belt, losing to UALR by 6. Sun Belt home favorites of 4 or less points are 3-7 vs spread.
Kentucky won last three games by 19-34-27 points, since losing 84-77 at Tennessee Feb 2, when Vols made 30-34 on line, storming back from early 34-13 deficit. Vols lost last eight visits here, with four of last five by 12 or less points. Kentucky is 5-1 as home favorite, with five wins by 19+ points. Tennessee is 1-4 as road dog, with only one road loss by more than 11 points. SEC home favorites of 13+ points are 2-5.
Michigan State won five of last six games, pounding Indiana by 19 in its last game; Spartans lost 77-76 at Wisconsin Jan 17- Badgers outscored State 29-12 on foul line- they're 4-1 in last five series games, but lost last eight visits here, with last one in '13. Badgers won last seven games, with three top 25 wins; they're 2-1 as Big 14 road underdog. Big 14 home favorites of 8+ points are 21-13 against the spread.
Stanford snapped 4-game skid by upsetting Oregon in last game; they're 5-1 in last six games with Washington State, but lost four of last six trips to Pullman- they lost 89-88 here LY. Wazzu lost its last 11 games, five of which were at home; they're 2-9 vs spread in those 11 games, 1-5 as a home underdog. Pac-12 home underdogs of 3 or less points are 11-3 vs spread. Cardinal lost its last four road games, all by double digits.
UCLA is 3-5 in last eight games, with home losses to Washington and USC; home side won five of last six Utah-UCLA games- Utes lost three in row in Westwood, by 27-14-10 points. Utah won seven of last nine games, but lost last two on road; they're 0-2 as Pac-12 dogs. Bruins are 3-2 at home in Pac-12, 2-2 as a home favorite. Pac-12 home teams are 15-10 vs spread in games with spread of 3 or less points.
St Mary's split its last four games after an 18-2 start; they beat Portland 89-74 at home Jan 23, shooting 70.3% inside arc-- Pilots were 11-24 on arc, and +8 in turnovers, still lost for 10th time in last 11 games with the Gaels, who won last four visits here, by 27-22-9-10 points. WCC home underdogs of 8+ points are 5-9 vs spread. Portland lost last three home games, allowing 89.7 ppg; they lost nine of last 12 games overall.
Young Washington team is 2-5 in its last seven games after starting 13-5; Huskies lost last four games with Cal, losing last three series games here, by 3-13-2 points. Golden Bears are 0-5 on Pac-12 road; home side beat spread in their last six games. Cal won its last three games overall, all by double figures after getting its PG Wallace back. Pac-12 home teams are 15-10 vs spread in games with spread of 3 or less points.
UT-Martin lost 82-74 at Eastern Illinois Jan 28; Skyhawks were -8 in turnovers (!5-7) as home side won for 4th time in last five series games. EIU lost by 7-30 points in last two visits here. EIU got swept at home by bad teams LW after winning four in row before that; they're 3-3 on OVC road. OVC home favorites of 7 or less points are 10-17 vs spread. UT-Martin won its last five games after starting OVC play 2-5.
Morehead State lost 77-76 at Tennessee State 12 days ago, Tigers made 58% inside arc, but other than McCall, only 8-21 on foul line. TSU lost six of last seven visits here, losing 72-57 here LY. Eagles are 4-3 as home favorites; five of their last six games were decided by six or less points. Tennessee State is 6-0 vs spread on OVC road, 3-0 as road dog, 4-2 SU. OVC home favorites of 7 or less points are 10-17 against the spread.
South Dakota State-Fort Wayne are tied atop Summit League; State won first meeting 92-76 at home Jan 14- they shot 56.8% inside arc, FW just 29.7%. Home side won last five series games; Jackrabbits losing by 7-10 in last two visits here. State won six of last seven games, split six road games in league. Fort Wayne is 5-1 at home, losing to IUPUI by a hoop. Summit League home underdogs of 5 or less points are 6-3 vs spread.
Armadillosports.com
Thursday's Tip Sheet
By Brian Edwards
VegasInsider.com
Southern Methodist at Connecticut
The Westgate SuperBook in Las Vegas opened UConn (18-7 straight up, 10-10-1 against the spread) as a three-point favorite, only to adjust the number 2.5 by early this morning.
UConn has won 12 of its 14 home games while posting a 5-5 spread record.
UConn is No. 44 in the RPI Rankings, compiling a 2-3 record against the Top 50 and a 6-7 mark versus the Top 100. The Huskies have quality non-conference triumphs at Texas, vs. Georgetown, vs. Ohio State and vs. Michigan on a neutral court.
Kevin Ollie’s club has won seven of its last nine games, going 5-4 ATS, but it has failed to cover the number in three consecutive contests. UConn won a 75-73 decision over Tulsa as an eight-point home favorite Saturday in Storrs. Sterling Gibbs and Omar Calhoun led five double-figure scorers with 14 points apiece, while Daniel Hamilton tallied 12 points, 10 rebounds and five assists.
Hamilton (11.7 points per game) averages team-highs in rebounding (9.1 RPG), assists (5.0 APG) and steals (1.1 SPG) for the Huskies.
SMU (21-3 SU, 9-11 ATS) is 9-3 in AAC action, leaving it one-half game behind conference-leading Temple and its 10-3 ledger. Larry Brown’s squad has won six of its eight road games, going 5-3 ATS.
After starting 18-0, SMU dropped three of five games before beating Gonzaga on Saturday by a 69-60 count as a five-point home ‘chalk.’ The Mustangs played stifling defense on Gonzaga All-American Kyle Wiltjer, who missed all eight of his 3-point attempts and made only 2-of-17 from the field in a four-point effort. Nic Moore was sensational for the winners, scoring 25 points and dishing out 11 assists compared to only one turnover. Ben Moore added 16 points, four rebounds, three steals and three blocked shots.
SMU is led by Moore, the senior point guard who averages team-highs in scoring (16.7 points per game), assists (5.2 APG) and steals (1.3 SPG).
SMU is No. 14 in the RPI, going 2-1 versus the Top 50 and 8-3 versus the Top 100. The Mustangs own quality victories at Tulsa, at Stanford and vs. Colorado on a neutral floor. They also have Top-100 home scalps over Yale, Michigan, Cincinnati, Houston and Gonzaga.
This is SMU’s first underdog situation of the season.
The ‘over’ is 11-9 overall for the Mustangs, 5-3 in their road contests.
The ‘under’ is 12-8-1 overall for the Huskies, 5-5 in their home games. They have seen the ‘under’ cash at an 8-2 clip in their last 10 games.
ESPN2 will have the broadcast at 8:00 p.m. Eastern.
Wisconsin at Michigan State
The Westgate SuperBook opened Michigan State (21-5 straight up, 16-9 against the spread) as a 10-point home favorite for this Big Ten showdown. The number was adjusted to 9.5 by late Wednesday night.
Michigan State is No. 17 in the RPI, producing a 6-4 record versus the Top 50 and an 8-4 mark against the Top 100. The Spartans only have one quality road win (at Michigan), but they own neutral-court scalps of Boise State , Kansas and Providence, in addition to home victories over Louisville, Florida, Maryland and Indiana.
Tom Izzo’s team is 11-2 SU and 8-4 ATS at home inside Breslin Center. Since MSU lost three in a row in mid-to-late January, it has won five of its last six games while covering the number in all six of those outings. The Spartans are off of Sunday’s 88-68 win over Indiana as seven-point home favorites. Denzel Valentine delivered on the 14th of February, tallying 30 points, five rebounds, three steals, one blocked shots and 13 assists compared to merely one turnover. Matt Costello added 22 points, 11 boards and three blocked shots.
Michigan State is third in the nation in field-goal percentage defense, forcing foes to shoot at a mediocre 37.3 percent clip. The Spartans defend the 3-point line well, ranking No. 8 (29.4%) in the country. They’re No. 18 in scoring defense, limiting opponents to 63.8 points per game.
Michigan State is one of the country’s best 3-point shooting squads, draining 42.3 percent of its launches from long distance.
Valentine is averaging 19.5 points, 7.7 rebounds and 7.1 assists per game. Bryn Forbes (14.0 PPG) is burying 48.1 percent of his shots from 3-point land.
Wisconsin has ripped off seven consecutive victories both SU and ATS to improve to 8-4 in Big Ten play. The Badgers are off Saturday’s stunning 70-57 win at Maryland as 8.5-point road underdogs. Junior forward Vitto Brown was the catalyst with 21 points and seven rebounds on 8-of-14 shooting from the field. Bronson Koenig added 16 points, six boards and five assists, while Nigel Hayes contributed 14 points and six rebounds.
Wisconsin is No. 45 in the RPI, going 4-4 against Top-50 opponents and 8-5 versus Top-100 foes. The Badgers have two huge road scalps at Maryland and at Syracuse. They also own quality home wins over Indiana, Michigan State , Temple and Ohio State
Wisconsin has posted a 4-3 SU record and a 5-2 ATS mark in its seven road games.
UW has occupied the underdog role nine time this year, producing a 5-4 spread record with four outright victories.
The ‘over’ is 13-12 overall for the Badgers, but the ‘under’ is 6-1 in their road assignments.
The ‘under’ is 13-12 overall for the Spartans, 7-5 in their home games. However, they have seen the ‘over’ hit in four consecutive contests.
Tip-off is slated for 9:00 p.m. Eastern on ESPN.
B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets
Despite losing Matt Jones to a sprained ankle in the first half, Duke somehow found a way to rally past North Carolina and capture an improbable win last night in Chapel Hill. The Blue Devils won outright as 8.5-point underdogs.
Alabama improved to 12-5 ATS with nine outright victories in 17 games as an underdog with last night’s 76-69 win at LSU as an eight-point underdog. The Crimson Tide hooked up money-line supporters with a +325 payout (risk $100 to win $325). Retis Obasohan was the best player on the court all night, producing 35 points, four rebounds, one steal and three assists without a turnover. Justin Coleman came off the bench to score 21 points and dish out five assists. Riley Norris controlled the glass with 16 rebounds.
Texas Tech won a 65-63 decision over Oklahoma as a four-point home underdog last night, handing the Sooners consecutive defeats for the first time this year. The Red Raiders and Crimson Tide still have work to do, but they’d almost certainly hear their names called if Selection Sunday was today.
Kentucky is a 17-point home favorite tonight vs. Tennessee at 7:00 p.m. Eastern on ESPN. The Wildcats will be looking to avenge a loss in Knoxville a few weeks ago when they had a 21-point lead at one point.
Minnesota is a 10-point home underdog tonight vs. Maryland at The Barn. This game will tip at 8:00 p.m. Eastern on The Big Ten Network. The Gophers have covered the spread in six straight games in which they were listed as underdogs of 9.5 points or more.
Loyal readers have heard me discuss what a disappointment the Mike Anderson Era has been at Arkansas. Bud-Walton Arena might have hit rock bottom last night when Auburn came into Fayetteville and won 90-86 as a 16.5-point road underdog. The Tigers hooked up money-line backers with a 12/1 return (risk $100 to win $1,200).
With its 57-53 win at Georgia on Tuesday night, Florida moved from No. 31 in the RPI up to No. 27. The Gators are only 2-7 against the Top 50, but they are 7-8 versus the Top 100. Mike White’s team has a pair of excellent non-conference wins over West Virginia and State Joseph’s, and it has swept the season series from both Georgia and Ole Miss. They also have a home win over LSU and just one loss to a team outside of the Top 100 (at Tennessee). In fact, UF has just two defeats outside the Top 50, a one-point loss at Vandy being the other.
SMU, UConn hook up
By Sportsbook.ag
SMU MUSTANGS (21-3, 9-3 AAC) at CONNECTICUT HUSKIES (18-7, 8-4 AAC)
Sportsbook.ag Line: UConn -2.5, 136
No. 21 SMU looks to hold off UConn and keep pace in the race for the AAC regular-season title when it faces the Huskies in Hartford on Thursday night.
Coach Larry Brown’s Mustangs are 9-11 ATS but a very impressive 6-2 SU (5-3 ATS) on the road this season. Coming off one of their signature wins of the season, a special February non-conference tilt against Gonzaga, where they beat the Bulldogs 69-60 at home on Saturday (SMU -5), SMU gets their first crack at Connecticut this season in a battle that will have big conference title implications.
As you’ll recall, SMU is ineligible for postseason play, so the AAC regular season conference championship is the sole prize for the Mustangs to validate an outstanding season so far. Oddly enough, the last time these two teams met in Hartford, SMU was also ranked 21st in the nation, facing an unranked Huskies squad. Connecticut would pull off the 81-73 upset in this instance (March 1st of last season) with G Rodney Purvis going for a career-high 28 points.
SMU has won the other four meetings against Connecticut, most recently exacting revenge just 15 days after that defeat last March by winning the AAC conference tourney over Connecticut and getting an automatic berth to the 2015 NCAA tournament. SMU is 4-1 ATS over those five games.
Coach Kevin Ollie’s club comes into Thursday night’s game winners of four of their last five, but they’ve dropped the last three ATS. This includes their most recent win, a 75-73 home squeaker over Tulsa (UCONN -8.5) on Saturday. Connecticut is 12-2 SU at home, but just 5-5 ATS. The Huskies are 8-4 SU in AAC play and 4-8 ATS in that span.
Senior G Nic Moore (16.7 PPG, 5.2 APG) has been a star of stars for SMU lately. The diminutive guard, undoubtedly the engine that makes SMU go, has upped his play over the last five games to 21.4 PPG, 49% FG and 50% 3PT (4.0 3PM) including 25 points and 11 assists on Saturday over Gonzaga.
Moore’s play has allowed freshman G Shake Milton (10.9 PPG, 45% 3PT) to grow in a complementary role, especially with the early-season departure of transfer Keith Frazier. The heir apparent to Moore next season, Milton has had a tendency to disappear in bigger games, evidenced by his 3 points on Saturday against Gonzaga, or his 3-13 FG at Temple in late January.
A great sign for coach Brown has to be the re-emergence of F Markus Kennedy (9.5 PPG, 6.2 RPG). A guy who’s seemingly been in college forever, Kennedy’s always been one of the more talented post players in the country, but for one reason or another (health, academics) has never found the court consistently. Kennedy is averaging 11 PPG and 8.1 RPG in his last nine games.
Along with F Ben Moore (12.1 PPG, 7.1 RPG) and F Jordan Tolbert (11.8 PPG, 8.7 RPG) it’s no surprise that having this trio of talented big men has SMU 7th in the nation in rebounding margin (+9.8). Given that Connecticut’s strength doesn’t lie in the paint, SMU should be exploiting mismatches as often as possible against the Huskies.
It’s been a struggle for coach Ollie to find a consistent starting five that’s worked for Connecticut this season, but he pushed the right buttons in Saturday’s tight win over Tulsa, inserting seldom-used G Omar Calhoun (4.4 PPG) into the lineup. Calhoun responded with 14 points on 4-6 from three, as he replaced mercurial freshman G Jalen Adams (6.2 PPG, 2.1 APG).
Senior G Sterling Gibbs (12.6 PPG, 38% 3PT) has been a fixture in the starting lineup, while leading scorer G Rodney Purvis (13.3 PPG, 40% 3PT) has found his niche coming off the bench. F Daniel Hamilton (11.7 PPG, 9.1 RPG, 5 APG) does a bit of everything for the Huskies, bringing the ball up when they want to bring Gibbs or Purvis off screens, or anchoring the back line when the Huskies play small. While Hamilton isn’t shooting the cover off the ball, he’s at least somewhat out of his offensive funk that plagued his January, and now has three double-doubles in his last four games (12.3 RPG in February).
Unfortunately, as good as Connecticut is defensively (62 PPG, 10th NCAA), scoring just doesn’t come easily, as Connecticut doesn’t help themselves by avoiding the free throw line like the plague (17.6 FTA/game; 306th NCAA). Connecticut has players like F Shonn Miller (13.4 PPG) who are as consistent as they come, a predictable double-figure scoring machine, but don’t have anyone like SMU’s Moore, who can put a team on his back. The Huskies haven’t had a 20 point scorer since January 17th (Gibbs).