College Basketball Knowledge
Cincinnati won three of last four games with Memphis, winning by 13-12 in last two played here. Bearcats are 3-4 in last seven games after its 10-2 start to season; winning last two home games by 19-11. Memphis is 0-2 in true road games, losing by 10 at South Carolina. 3 at UConn- they've got #2 eFG% defense but their offense is bad, #324 eFG%. AAC single digit home underdogs are 5-6 vs spread.
Kentucky lost last three visits to Arkansas by 1-13-2 points; they beat Hogs twice LY, by 17-15 points. Wildcats are 4-3 in last seven games, 1-3 in true road games, with only win by 16 at Alabama- they lost at both Auburn, LSU. Arkansas is 3-1 in last four games, winning first two SEC home tilts by 5-14. Hogs are shooting 44.7% on arc (#3 in US). SEC home underdogs of 4 or less points are 2-7 vs spread.
Northeastern won its last eight games with Hofstra, winning last four here by 7-5-8-8 points. Huskies lost two of last three games after a 3-0 start in CAA. Hofstra's bench plays 2nd-fewest minutes in nation; they lost last game at home in OT- Pride won two of three CAA road, games, losing by 11 at Charleston. CAA home favorites of 6 or less points are 2-8 vs spread. Northeastern's eFG% defense is #288, not very good.
Arkansas State won three of last four games with Tex-Arlington; home side won three of four games- teams split last two played here. UTA is much-improved this year at 13-3, after being 31-32 last two years; they won first two Sun Belt home games by 15-20 points. ASU is also 5-1 in Sun Belt, but last four were at home- they upset Little Rock last game. Sun Belt double digit home favorites are 5-3 against the spread.
Ark-Little Rock won three of last four games with Texas State, losing in double OT here LY, winning by 4 year before. Trojans split last four on road- they're 2-1 on Sun Belt road, winning by 9-6 before losing by 3 at Ark State last game. Bobcats lost three of last four games, losing by 12-20-9 points- they split two Sun Belt home tilts, are 0-2 vs teams in top 200, losing by 5-12. Sun Belt home underdogs are 8-4 vs spread.
Cal's primary ballhandler Wallace (hand) is out 4-6 weeks; this is their first game without him. Cal lost its last five games with Arizona State, losing by 11ot-35 in last two here. ASU is 1-4 in Pac-12, with only win at home over Wazzu; Sun Devils are 2-3 in true road games, went 0-2 on LA trip in only conference road games. Pac-12 home favorites of 7 or less points are 7-8 against the spread.
Ohio State won seven of last eight games with Purdue; they lost here by hoop LY; Buckeyes are 4-2 in Big 14 but losses were by 25-35 points; they also lost by 20 at UConn, won at Northwestern. Boilers are 5-3 in last eight games after an 11-0 start; they have revenge game at Iowa on deck Sunday. Purdue has two home wins by 17 in league play, plus loss to Iowa. Big 14 double digit home favorites are 9-6 vs spread.
USC is 4-1 in Pac-12 after being 15-47 last four years; they led by 22 at Washington in only conference loss. Oregon won its last ten games with USC, winning last five games here by 10-6-3-12-8 points. Trojans won at Wazzu/UCLA, as well as by 12 at UCSB. Pac-12 home favorites of 5 or less points are 5-6 vs spread. Ducks beat Cal/Stanford by 3-13 points in only two Pac-12 home games; they're 6-2 in last eight D-I games.
Arizona won its last 11 games with Stanford, winning last five here, by 2-9-13-3-7 points. This is Wildcats' first road game with leading scorer Trier; they're 2-2 in true road games, getting swept in LA after winning at Gonzaga/ASU- they lost in four OTs at USC. Pac-12 home underdogs are 9-2 vs spread. Stanford is 3-2 in Pac-12; all three of its Pac-12 home games were decided by 6 or less points.
Utah won its last three games with Washington State; home side is 5-1 in series games, with Utes losing two of three visits here. Utes scored less than 60 points in last four games; they're 2-3 in league, losing by 2-13 at Stanford/Cal before winning by hoop at Colorado. Wazzu allowd 91 ppg in losing last three games; their only Pac-12 win (1-4) was over UCLA here. Pac-12 home underdogs are 9-2 against the spread.
Gonzaga won its last eight games with St Mary's, winning last three in Moraga by 17-28-10 points. Both sides are 6-1 in WCC; Zags struggled but won both WCC road games, winning in OT at USF, by 2 at Santa Clara. St Mary's is 4-0 at home in WCC with all four wins by 11+; they played only one game in last 12 days. WCC home favorites of 5 or less points are 3-7 vs spread. Gaels shoot 46% on arc, best in country.
North Dakota State won five of last seven games with IPFW, in a series where home side won eight of last nine meetings. Bison are 1-5 in last six visits to Fort Wayne, losing 82-71/77-71 in last two. State is 3-4 in true road games, losing by point at Oral Roberts in only Summit road game. IPFW won its two Summit home games by 6-20 points. Summit League home favorites of 5 or less points are 4-3 vs spread.
Home side won both Mercer-East Tennessee games LY, with two games decided by total of six points. Mercer is 4-1 in SoCon, splitting pair on road, with only loss by 12 at Chattanooga- they turn ball over 21% of time (#318). ETSU is 4-1 in league, scoring 81+ points in all five games; they won both home games by 3-37 points. SoCon home favorites are 13-5 vs spread. Bucs are shooting 38.7% on arc, #30 in country.
Armadillosports.com
NCAAB: Streaks, Tips, Notes
Sportspic.com
Arizona State at California
Cal Golden Bears (12-6, 9-9 ATS) suffering three consecutive Pac-12 road losses, the most recent a 77-71 defeat at Stanford as -3.5 point road favorites return to Berkeley to host conference rival Arizona State Sun Devils (11-7, 8-9 ATS). Golden Bears' unblemished home record (11-0, 7-4 ATS) could take a hit. Cal has lost the services of leading scorer, senior point guard Tyrone Wallace (15.4). If that were not enough bad news, Golden Bears haven't been able to solve Arizona State losing each of its last five vs Sun Devils (1-3-1 ATS).
Thursday's Tip Sheet
By Brian Edwards
VegasInsider.com
Kentucky at Arkansas
If you know anything about Kentucky basketball, you’re well aware that the natives who are card-carrying members of Big Blue Nation (BBN) are not happy. That’s what happens after UK drops a second SEC game by mid-January. The Wildcats went to The Plains this past Saturday and lost a 75-70 decision at Auburn as 12-point road favorites. The loss left UK with a 3-2 ledger in SEC action.
Kentucky (13-4 straight up, 6-11 against the spread) enters Thursday’s showdown in Fayetteville in a fifth-place tie with Arkansas in the SEC standings. As of early this morning, most books had the ‘Cats favored by two points.
John Calipari’s team is No. 18 in the RPI Rankings, producing a 4-0 record against the Top 50. However, the Wildcats have four losses to teams slotted between 50-100 in the RPI. They have lost at UCLA, at Auburn, at LSU and vs. Ohio State on a neutral court. UK’s best wins are over Duke on a neutral court, vs. Louisville, vs. Arizona State and at Alabama.
Jamal Murray scored a team-best 20 points before fouling out at Auburn. Tyler Ulis played all 40 minutes, producing 17 points, 10 rebounds and eight assists compared to merely one turnover. Derek Willis finished with 12 points and 12 boards.
Murray is averaging a team-best 17.8 points per game, but he’s shooting only 42.1 percent from the field. Also, he has more turnovers (51) than assists (43). Ulis is UK’s second-leading scorer (14.4 PPG) with a 98/32 assists-to-turnovers ratio. The sophomore point guard shares team-high honors in steals (23) with freshman guard Isaiah Briscoe, who is averaging 10.7 points and 5.3 rebounds per game. Alex Poythress, the only senior on the roster, is averaging 9.6 points and 6.9 rebounds per game.
UK junior guard Dominique Hawkins dressed out at Auburn, but he didn’t play for a fourth straight game due to a sprained ankle. Hawkins might return tonight. He had a season-high 13 points vs. U of L the game before getting injured.
Kentucky is mired in a 4-10 ATS slump.
Arkansas (9-8 SU, 8-5 ATS) is No. 86 in the RPI Rankings, going winless in three games against Top-50 competition. However, Mike Anderson’s team is showing improvement, winning three of its last four games in SEC play. Since losing their SEC opener 92-69 at Texas A&M, the Razorbacks have beaten Vanderbilt (90-85) and Mississippi State (82-68) at home and trounced Missouri 94-61 in Columbia.
Arkansas was unable to win a fourth straight Saturday in Baton Rouge, where it came out on the wrong end of a 76-74 decision at LSU. But the Hogs took the cash comfortably as eight-point underdogs. They have produced an 8-2 spread record in their last 10 games.
Junior guard Anthlon Bell scored a game-high 19 points in the losing effort at LSU. Bell buried 4-of-7 attempts from 3-point range, while Moses Kingsley and Anton Beard were also in double figures with 11 points apiece. Kingsley also had eight rebounds, four blocked shots and a pair of steals.
Arkansas has won eight of its nine home games, compiling a 4-1 spread record. The Hogs are 4-2 ATS as underdogs this year, beating Vandy 90-85 in overtime in their only such spot at Bud Walton Arena.
Kentucky won both meetings between these conference rivals last season, but Arkansas had won the three previous encounters. In fact, UK hasn’t won at Bud Walton since 2009.
The ‘over’ is 9-8 overall for UK.
The ‘over’ is 7-6 overall for the Hogs, 3-2 in their home games.
Tip-off is scheduled for 7:00 p.m. Eastern on ESPN.
Southern Cal at Oregon
As of early this morning, most betting shops had Oregon (14-4 SU, 8-7 ATS) installed as a 4.5-point favorite.
Dana Altman’s squad saw its three-game winning streak snapped in Sunday’s 91-87 loss at Colorado as a one-point underdog. A run of four straight ‘unders’ for the Ducks also came to a halt when the 178 combined points soared ‘over’ the 143-point total. Oregon was destroyed on the glass with the Buffaloes holding a 35-19 rebounding advantage.
Oregon sophomore guard Dillon Brooks scored a team-high 21 points before fouling out in Boulder. Brooks made 9-of-13 shots from the field, including both of his attempts from downtown. He also had five assists, four rebounds, one steal and one blocked shot. Tyler Dorsey and Elgin Cook finished with 19 and 14 points, respectively. Chris Boucher logged only 15 minutes of playing time due to foul trouble. The juco-transfer center still managed 11 points and four rebounds.
Oregon is unbeaten in 11 home games with a 5-3 spread record. The Ducks are 2-2 ATS in four games as single-digit home ‘chalk.’
Brooks is averaging a team-high 15.8 PPG and is also pulling down 6.4 RPG. In 18 games, he also has 55 assists, 20 steals and 10 blocked shots. Dorsey is scoring at a 14.2 PPG clip, while Boucher is averaging team-bests in rebounding (7.7 RPG), field-goal percentage (52.6%) and blocked shots (3.3 BPG).
Oregon is No. 8 in the RPI Rankings thanks to seven wins over Top-50 foes. The Ducks owns victories over the likes of Baylor, Valpo, UC Irvine, Alabama, California, Stanford and Utah. All the wins came at home except for the neutral-court triumph over the Crimson Tide and last Thursday’s 77-59 win at Utah.
USC (15-3 SU, 13-4-1 ATS) struggled mightily in the first two seasons of Andy Enfield’s tenure, limping to a 23-41 record. But Enfield’s program has turned the corner in Year 3, surging to the top of the Pac-12 standings going into Wednesday’s action. The Trojans are 4-1 in league play, winning three straight vs. Arizona St. (75-65), vs. Arizona (103-101) and at UCLA (89-75).
Southern Cal has had a full week to prep for Oregon after spanking arch-rival UCLA at Pauley Pavilion last Wednesday night. Jordan McLaughlin scored 23 points to go with four assists, three rebounds, one steal and zero turnovers. McLaughlin drained 5-of-8 attempts from 3-point range. Chimezie Metu, a true freshman power forward, added 21 points and eight boards, hitting 8-of-10 shots from the field. Katin Reinhardt added 14 points and five rebounds. The Trojans led by 18 points at intermission and cruised into the win column.
SC has posted a 3-1 record both SU and ATS in four true road assignments this year. The Trojans are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 trips to Eugene.
USC is No. 15 in the RPI Rankings, going 4-2 against the Top 50 and 6-3 versus the Top 100. The Trojans have a home win over Monmouth, a neutral-site victory over Wichita State and a road win at UC-Santa Barbara.
USC’s only defeats have come at Washington and vs. Xavier and Monmouth on a neutral court.
USC has been an underdog four times this year, posting a 3-1 record both SU and ATS.
Barring an epic collapse, USC is destined to get to the NCAA Tournament for the first time since 2011.
Totals have been an overall wash for the Trojans (9-9-1), but they have watched the ‘over’ hit at a 5-1 clip in their last six games. The ‘over’ is 3-1 in USC’s four road contests.
The ‘under’ is 9-6 overall for the Ducks, 4-4 in their home outings.
The Pac-12 Network will have the telecast at 9:00 p.m. Eastern.
B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets
Arizona is another ranked team on the road tonight. The Wildcats are 5.5-point road ‘chalk’ at Stanford. After losing back-to-back games at UCLA and at USC by five combined points two weeks ago, Sean Miller’s team responded with consecutive blowout victories over Washington and Washington St. at home last weekend. Meanwhile, the Cardinal has an identical 3-2 record in league play after beating Cal 77-71 at home last Thursday.
The lucrative underdogs absolutely killed it Wednesday night. In games involving schools from Power Five Conferences and the A-10 where the underdog was catching 8.5 points or more, the ‘dogs went 9-2 ATS. FSU, Duquesne and La Salle were the only teams who failed to cover. Nebraska (+14 at Michigan State), Texas (+12 at WVU), DePaul (+8.5 at Marquette) and Saint Louis (+9 vs. Davidson) won outright, while Virginia Tech lost by only two at Notre Dame and Kansas State fell in overtime at Baylor.
Villanova survived at Seton Hall in a 72-71 win, but the Pirates hooked up their gambling supporters as seven-point home underdogs.
Nebraska senior slasher Shavon Shields led his team to a third straight win over Michigan State last night by scoring 28 points in a 72-71 win as a 14-point underdog. Gamblers backing the Cornhuskers to win outright were paid 9/1 odds (paid $900 on $100 wagers) at The Westgate SuperBook. Tim Miles’s squad has won four in a row and has covered the number in five straight. On the other hand, Tom Izzo’s team has lost three in a row (this season and in the head-to-head rivalry with the Cornhuskers).
Nebraska is 4-0-1 ATS in its last five games against Michigan State.
Boise State had its 10-game winning streak snapped in Saturday’s home loss to San Diego State at Taco Bell Arena, but the Broncos bounced back with a 94-69 win over San Jose State last night as 19-point home ‘chalk.’ James Webb III scored 24 points, pulled down 18 rebounds, had three steals, one blocked shots and one assist without committing a turnover. Nick Duncan buried six 3-pointers en route to a 24-point effort. Mikey Thompson added 16 points for BSU.
Thursday's Top Action
By Sportsbook.ag
GONZAGA BULLDOGS (14-4) at ST MARYS-CA GAELS (15-2)
Sportsbook.ag Line: Gonzaga -3.5
The penultimate rivalry in the WCC takes center stage on Thursday night as Gonzaga travels to St. Mary’s with the winner assuming sole possession of first place in the conference.
While Gonzaga has owned this series in recent memory (9-1 SU, 8-2 ATS since 2012; eight straight wins) the Bulldogs look as vulnerable as they’ve been in a long while. A home loss to BYU (for the second time in two seasons) has dropped coach Mark Few’s club out of their familiar perch in the top 25. Gonzaga did rebound to obliterate San Diego, 88-52 (Gonzaga -20) at home on Saturday, but the matchup with the ultra-efficient and even-keeled Gaels on Thursday night looms, with the Gaels arguably as the best team in the conference right now.
At 15-2 (12-2 ATS) and 13-0 SU (9-1 ATS) at home, coach Randy Bennett’s St. Mary’s club has won 9 of its past 10 games. Furthermore, the Gaels last game, a 78-62 win over Pacific at home (St. Mary’s -19.5) was a week ago. Given the six day rest to prepare for their arch-rivals at home, expect the crowd at Moraga to be in an absolute frenzy and for the nation’s best three point shooting team (46% 3PT, 1st NCAA) to be ready to prevent Gonzaga from taking their ninth straight win in this series.
Historically, while both clubs are very solid offensively, the total has gone UNDER in each of the last seven games between the Gaels and Bulldogs. Not only has Gonzaga won the last eight games in this rivalry, they’ve also covered and outshot St. Mary’s (FG%) in seven straight. Gonzaga is 14-6 SU (11-9 ATS) away from home against St. Mary’s since 1998. The last time the Bulldogs were underdogs to the Gaels away from home, they hammered St. Mary’s in Moraga to the tune of 75-47 in Mar. 2014.
The most recent win non-withstanding, WCC play has not been a walk in the park for Gonzaga this season. At 2-4 ATS in conference play, the Bulldogs have found many challengers this season, be that due to a shortened rotation due to injury (F Przemek Karnowski is out for the season) or having only two consistent offensive weapons, or having to rely on a new backcourt for the first time in four seasons, there’s no doubt that this is a team that isn’t going to bulldoze through conference play as they formerly had. To win, coach Few’s team needs All-American type play out of his two top players who, frankly, are doing everything they can for this club.
F Kyle Wiltjer (22.1 PPG, 7.1 RPG, 49.5 % FG) is one of the toughest covers in the country. His ability to move without the ball to get himself open, use his height for mid-range jumpers and post touches, and be effective from three (44% 3PT) while hitting for 87.5% FT makes him college basketball’s answer to Dirk Nowitzki. Wiltjer has been on another planet, production-wise, since the calendar flipped to 2016, as he’s averaging an absurd 30.5 PPG over the past four games (57% FG, 54% FT).
Wiltjer’s frontcourt partner, F Domantas Sabonis (17.3 PPG, 10.6 RPG, 64% FG) makes for the other half of this dynamic duo. Sabonis had been unstoppable until running up against BYU in Gonzaga’s first conference loss last week, as it seems the only thing that can stop Arvydas’ son from putting up monstrous double-doubles is foul issues.
G Josh Perkins (9.8 PPG) is the only other real offensive threat for Gonzaga, as he’s put up double-figures in four of his last five games. The Bulldogs will need to continue getting back to their old ways on defense, as they did in holding San Diego to 55 points. Against the best three point shooting team in the country, Gonzaga’s 29.4% 3PT allowed defense (13th NCAA) will really get a chance to see how good it is.
Surprise, surprise, coach Randy Bennett’s Gaels are led by some outstanding hidden gems from, you guessed it, Australia. Following in the footsteps of former Gaels greats like Matthew Dellavadova, G Emmett Naar (13.8 PPG, 6.4 APG, 59% 3PT) and F Dane Pineau (11.1 PPG, 8.1 RPG, 62% FG) both hail from the land down under. That said, the player surging right now for the Gaels is another Aussie, F Jock Landale (10.4 PPG, 5.2 RPG). Landale, a barely-used freshman a season ago, is thriving with double-figure scoring in his last five games (15.4 PPG, 5.8 RPG) in that span. He’ll be sorely needed to help Pineau put pressure on Sabonis and Wiltjer.
The Gaels three point resume is no joke, as they boast five players averaging more than one triple per game. F Calvin Hermanson (10.6 PPG, 41% 3PT, 2.3 3PM) leads the team in threes made. Running the show is former Boston College transfer G Joe Rahon (9.5 PPG, 6.8 APG). While Rahon isn’t a knock-down shooter that many of his teammates are, he has shown a penchant for coming up big against good competition (24 points in a non-conference win versus Stanford earlier this season). Rahon has seven straight games of 6+ assists and only 9 total turnovers in that same span.
The offense all really comes back to the 6’1” Naar, though, as the sophomore who only averaged 6 points per game last season regained the golden touch that had left him for a five game span in late December and early January. Naar hit for 21 points (4-4 3PT) in the most recent win over Pacific, and Bennett will have to hope that game gives him the confidence to shoot up to his capabilities again on Thursday night.