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College Basketball Knowledge
Hofstra won three of its four games with Charleston, splitting pair here; Pride won its first two CAA games by 10-32 points, scoring 90 in both games- they're shooting 39.9% on arc (#20). Charleston is playing first home game in month; they split last four games, losing at Wm Mary by 8 Saturday. Over last 6+ years, Hofstra is 12-4 as CAA road favorites, Cougars are 4-2-1 as home dogs. CAA home teams are 2-8 vs spread.
NC State pulled upset in Louisville LY, then lost 75-65 to Cardinals in ACC tourney; Wolfpack had 6-game win streak snapped at Va Tech in OT last game; they're 2-2 vs top 100 teams, but don't shoot well. Cards are 0-2 in true road games, losing at Michigan State/Kentucky by total of six points. Last five years, Louisville is 11-15 as conference road favorite. ACC home underdogs are 3-3 vs spread.
SMU is one of two undefeated teams in country (South Carolina); they can't play in postseason, so winning AAC regular season is all they have. Mustangs lost three of last four games with Cincinnati, splitting pair of games here. SMU won its first two AAC games by 12-14 points, giving up 63.5 ppg. Bearcats split last eight games; none of losses was outside of Cincinnati. AAC home favorites are 4-6 vs spread.
Cleveland State beat Green Bay by 14-5 points LY, after losing five in a row to Phoenix before that; Vikings allowed 87 ppg in losing first couple Horizon games by 18-8 points- they're 1-10 vs top 200 teams, best win by hoop over #107 Belmont. Green Bay scored 81 ppg in winning first two league games by 16-8 points; they're playing #2 pace in US, making 37% on arc, but only 61.3% on line (#335).
Ole Miss is opening its new arena here; Rebels won four of last five with Alabama, in series where home side won seven of last eight series games. Crimson Tide lost last five visits to Oxford, by 7-9-5-4-13; they turn it over 21.2% of time (#311), scored 52.3 ppg in three true road tilts, with 80-48 loss at Dayton. Ole Miss had 7-game win streak snapped last game by Kentucky- they were 5-0 in old home gym this season.
UL-Lafayette won last three games with Ark-Little Rock; two of three games went OT,. Cajuns lost six of last eight visits here- home side won five of last six series games. ULL is 0-3 vs top 100 teams, losing by 6-12-9 points; they're 0-6 in true road games, with nine points closest of six. UALR allowed 60.5 ppg in winning first two league games by 9-6 points. Sun Belt home favorites are 5-1 vs spread.
Arizona won three of last four games with UCLA but lost three of last four played here; five of last six series games were decided by six points or less. Last 3+ years, Wildcats are 12-15 as Pac-12 road favorites; they are 5-1 vs top 100 teams- only loss was by 4 to Providence on a neutral floor. UCLA got swept on Washington swing for first time in 20+ years; Bruins lost three of last four games. Pac-12 home underdogs are 4-2.
Home side lost last four Illinois-Michigan State games; Illini won last two visits to East Lansing, 53-46/59-54. Illinois has been banged-up this year; they're 0-2 in Big 14, losing by 10-2 points, allowing 76.5 ppg. Michigan State was on road all last week, losing first game to Iowa. Spartans are in bottom 10 in country at forcing turnovers but are #2 in eFG% defense in country- they're top 20 rebounding team. . Big 14 home faves are 3-2.
Michigan won four of last five games with Purdue, losing 64-51 here LY, its first loss in last six visits to Mackey Arena. Boilers led Iowa by 17 at half in last game but lost by 7, scoring only 26 points in 2nd half. Purdue split last four games after 11-0 start; they have #1 eFG% defense in US. Over last six years, Wolverines are 24-15 vs spread as Big 14 road dogs. Big 14 home favorites are 6-7 against the spread.
Old Dominion/Louisiana Tech split pair of C-USA meetings, with both at ODU. Monarchs won last four games after 4-6 start- they're 0-4 in true road games, with three losses by 9 or less points. Bulldogs are 12-2 vs schedule #320; they won at Ohio State, beat Tex-Arlington by 12- they force turnovers 21.2% of time (#48). C-USA home favorites are 4-2 vs spread. This is ODU's first visit to Ruston for a C-USA game.
Arizona State won five of last seven games with USC but lost to Trojans in Pac-12 tourney last March; ASU won two of its last three visits here. Sun Devils are 2-1 in true road games, winning at Creighton/UNLV- they lost at Kentucky. USC had 7-game win streak snapped at Washington as Trojans blew 22-point lead. USC has #10 eFG% defense. Pac-12 home favorites are 3-2 against the spread.
Murray State is 11-1 in last 12 games with Tennessee Tech, winning six in row, last two by 39-16 points. Tech lost last nine visits here, with four of last six losses here by 11+ points. Racers lost five of last six D-I tilts with two of five losses at home. Tech scored 90 ppg in winning first two OVC games, by 10-23 points. Eagles are 1-5 in true road games, winning at #277 Lipscomb. OVC home favorites are 4-2 vs spread.
North Dakota State won its last six games with Omaha, winning the three here by 44-22-7 points. Bison won five of last six D-I games, winning by 26 over Decent in Summit opener. Mavericks scored 79 ppg in winning first two league games; Omaha are 3-3 in true road games; they scored 100+ points in all three true road wins. Summit home favorites are 3-7 vs spread. Omaha is shooting just 28.6% on arc, #334 in country.
Armadillosports.com
Thursday's Tip Sheet
By David Schwab
VegasInsider.com
A pair of Arizona teams from the Pac-12 will go on the road this Thursday night to face two Southern California foes in a men’s college hoops double-header. First, the No. 7 Arizona Wildcats will square-off against the UCLA Bruins in a 9 p.m. (ET) tip at Pauley Pavilion. The second Pac-12 matchup sends the Arizona State Sun Devils on the road against the USC Trojans with that game getting underway at 10:30 p.m. in Galen Center.
No. 7 Arizona Wildcats at UCLA Bruins
Betting Point-spread: Arizona -3
Betting Matchup
The lone setback in Arizona’s 13-1 straight-up start was a 69-65 loss to Providence on Nov. 27 as a six-point neutral-site favorite. Since then, the Wildcats have been on a tear both on the court and at the betting window with an 8-0 record SU while covering against the spread in seven of those games. The total has gone OVER in five of their last six contests.
In this past Sunday’s 94-82 victory against rival Arizona State as a 3½-point road favorite in its Pac-12 opener, Arizona raised its scoring average to 87.7 points over its last six games. The trio of Ryan Anderson, Allonzo Trier and Gabe York has done most of the damage with a combined average of 43 points a game. Anderson has been the team’s top shooter; hitting 54.1 percent of his shots from the field.
UCLA has been a tough team to figure out all season long at 9-6 SU and it is in an early hole in the Pac-12 following losses to both Washington and Washington State as a slight road favorite. The Bruins have now failed to cover in their last five games with the total going OVER in four of those contests. Overall, they are just 4-11 ATS this year.
The bright spot in what has been a disappointing season so far has been the play of junior guard’s Bryce Alford and Isaac Hamilton. This dynamic backcourt is averaging 33 points, nine rebounds and eight assists. The Bruins are still one of the better scoring teams in the nation with 79.9 PPG, but they fall well down the list on defense when it comes to points allowed (76.5).
Betting Trends
The Wildcats are 6-1 ATS in their last seven road games and they are 23-8 ATS in their last 31 Pac-12 games. The total has stayed UNDER in seven of their last 10 games against a team with a SU winning record.
The Bruins have failed to cover in their last four games at home and they are 1-4 ATS in their last five games following a SU loss. The total has stayed UNDER in five of their last seven games played on Thursday.
The underdog in this matchup is 8-1 ATS in the last nine meetings and the total has stayed UNDER in four of the last five meetings at UCLA.
Arizona State Sun Devils at USC Trojans
Betting Point-spread: USC -6
Betting Matchup
Sunday’s loss to Arizona snapped a SU four-game winning streak as part of an overall record of 10-4. The Sun Devils are just 2-3 ATS in their last five outings with a closing betting line and the total has gone OVER in their last three games. Arizona State is 2-1 ATS in its last three road games and 4-2 ATS this season as an underdog.
Sophomore guard Tra Holder is averaging a team-high 15.2 points this season, but he has been able to exceed that average in each of his last five games including a game-high 24 points in the loss to the Wildcats. The Sun Devils, as a whole, are averaging 76 PPG while shooting 43.2 percent from the field and 31.8 percent from three-point range.
USC is off to a respectable 12-3 start SU with a 10-5 record ATS, but it will be looking to quickly bounce-back from a tough 87-85 loss to Washington its last time out as one-point road favorites after leading that game by as many as 22 points. The total went OVER the closing 163½-point line in that game and it has now gone OVER in four of its last five contests. The Trojans remain a solid bet at home with a 7-2 ATS record this season.
Junior guard Julian Jacobs left the game against the Huskies with an ankle injury and his status for Thursday could be considered day-to-day. He is one of six USC players scoring at least 10 points a game in a very deep lineup. The Trojans are averaging 83.7 PPG and this total has climbed to 89.2 points over their last five games. They have also been a strong team under the boards with 43.1 rebounds a game.
Betting Trends
The Sun Devils have failed to cover ATS in seven of their last eight conference games, but they are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games following a SU loss. The total has stayed UNDER in five of their last six games played on Thursday.
The Trojans are 9-1-1 ATS in their last 11 home games and they are 5-2 ATS in their last seven games following a SU loss. The total has stayed UNDER in five of their last seven home games.
Head-to-head in this conference tilt, the road team has covered ATS in the last four meetings and the total has stayed UNDER in all four games. Arizona State has a 5-2 edge ATS in the last seven games.
NCAAB: Streaks, Tips, Notes
Sportspic.com
Arizona at UCLA
Arizona Wildcats (13-1, 8-6 ATS) have ripped off eight straight including a 94-82 victory as 3.5 point road chalk over Arizona State in its Pac-12 opener. Wildcats lead by Ryan Anderson (15.1), Allonzo Trier (14.1), Gabe York (13.7) are netting 80.0 points/game and sport a smothering defense holding opponents to 63.3 per/contest on 40.7% shooting, 29.1% from outside.
Bruins (9-6, 4-11 ATS) are entereing this matchup off back-2-back losses to Pac-12 rivals Washington and Washington State. Bruins drop 79.9 per/game with Bryce Alford (16.9) leading five players in double digit scoring. On the other side of the court keeping the ball out of their own basket is a work in progress as Bruins are allowing opponents a whopping 76.5 points/game.
Arizona won both meetings last year but failed at the betting window in both games. Going back eleven in the series, Wildcats are a money-burning 2-9 against the betting line. Still, have to like Arizona in this matchup. Bruins are not shooting the ball well hitting just 39.4% in the two conference games and are having trouble keeping the ball out of their basket. Consider laying the -3.0 points, Wildcats respond in today's betting range. They're 6-3 ATS including a cover at Pauley Pavilion.
Thursday's Early Tips
By Brian Edwards
VegasInsider.com
Cincinnati at Southern Methodist
As of late Wednesday night, most betting shops had SMU (13-0 straight up, 4-5 against the spread) installed as a seven-point favorite.
Larry Brown’s squad is only one of two unbeaten teams remaining in college basketball (South Carolina is the other). Unfortunately for SMU, it can’t go to the NCAA Tournament this season due to probation sanctions. Nevertheless, the Mustangs can win the AAC regular-season title and they’re out to a 2-0 record in league play.
SMU is off a 72-58 non-covering win over South Florida as a 25.5-point home ‘chalk.’ Nic Moore, Markus Kennedy and Sterling Brown shared team-high scoring honors with 13 points apiece. Ben Moore added 12 points and 10 rebounds. Moore dished out four assists and had three steals.
Moore, the senior point guard who is a two-time All-AAC selection and last year’s AAC Player of the Year, is the catalyst for the Mustangs. He led the league in 3-point shooting and free-throw shooting last season, in addition to finish fourth in scoring and second in assists. Moore is averaging a team-best 15.9 points per game this year. He has a 59/24 assists-to-turnovers ratio.
Jordan Tolbert, a transfer from Texas Tech who was the Red Raiders’ second-leading scorer and rebounder in 2013-14, is averaging a double-double (12.2 PPG, 10.2 RPG). Ben Moore, a junior forward, is scoring at a 12.2 PPG clip. Moore is averaging 8.5 rebounds per game and has a team-best 16 blocked shots. Malik ‘Shake’ Milton, a true freshman guard who was the two-time Gatorade Player of the Year in Oklahoma before inking a scholarship with the Mustangs, is also scoring in double figures (11.6 PPG). Milton has a 37/13 assists-to-turnovers ratio. He is shooting at a incredible percentage from the field for a guard (55.7%) and is draining 47.9 percent of his looks from long distance.
SMU is in the process of adjusting from a nine-player rotation (see Keith Frazier info below) to an eight-man rotation that has seven players playing more than 22 minutes per game. The eighth player, true freshman shooting guard Jarrey Foster, is logging better than 16 minutes per contest.
SMU has been a single-digit favorite five times, compiling a 3-2 spread record.
SMU is undefeated in eight home games, but it has limped to a 1-3 spread record. However, the Mustangs hooked up their backers in their lone single-digit home ‘chalk’ situation (an 82-58 win over Michigan as a 6.5-point favorite).
SMU junior guard Keith Frazier left the team this past weekend. He reportedly chose to leave because he felt he was being blamed for the NCAA penalties. Frazier was scoring at a 11.9 PPG clip.
Cincinnati (11-4 SU, 4-7 ATS) has won three of four head-to-head meetings against SMU (both SU and ATS) since the AAC’s formation in 2013-2014. The Bearcats are one of just three teams that have won at SMU’s new Moody Coliseum in 45 games since the facility opened in ’13-14.
Mick Cronin’s team avoided a three-game losing streak by beating Tulsa 76-57 as an eight-point home favorite. Farad Cobb knocked down 5-of-7 from 3-point land en route to scoring a team-high 21 points.
Cobb averages team-highs in scoring (12.3 PPG) and steals (1.1 SPG). Gary Clark, a sophomore forward, has become the heir apparent to shot-blocker extraordinaire Justin Jackson, who departed two seasons ago after spending multiple seasons protecting the rim and turning Cincy games into (almost) automatic ‘unders.’ Clark leads Cincy in rebounding (8.3 RPG) and field-goal percentage (60.9%). Clark also scores at a 9.6 PPG clip and has 17 blocked shots.
Cincy’s Octavius Ellis plays an equally important role in terms of interior defense, something that has been a staple for the Bearcats and a reflection upon their head coach throughout Cronin’s tenure. Ellis has a team-best 21 blocked shots. He averages 9.9 points and 7.4 rebounds per game while shooting at a 60.5 percent rate from the floor.
Cincy junior PG Troy Caupain is the team’s second-leading scorer (11.1 PPG) and has a stellar 72/21 assists-to-turnovers ratio. He is also second on the team in steals with 17.
Cincy has been an underdog just once, losing 65-55 at Xavier as a 4.5-point ‘dog. The Bearcats are 2-1 both SU and ATS in three true road assignments, winning and covering easily at Bowling Green (83-50) and at VCU (69-63).
The ‘over’ is 6-3 overall for SMU, 2-2 in its home games with a total.
The ‘under’ is 7-4 overall this year for the Bearcats, who have watched the ‘under’ cash at a 28-10 clip in their last 38 road assignments. The ‘under’ has cashed in all three of UC’s three road outings.
Tip-off is scheduled for 7:00 p.m. Eastern on the CBS College Network.
Michigan at Purdue
As of early this morning, most spots had Purdue (13-2 SU, 8-3 ATS) listed as a 7.5-point favorite.
Purdue is No. 32 in the RPI Rankings, going 4-2 against the Top 100. The Boilermakers own scalps vs. Florida, vs. Vanderbilt, at Pitt and at Wisconsin. They have lost 70-63 at Iowa and 74-68 vs. Butler in Indianapolis.
Purdue won its first 11 games, only to drop two of its last four, including the home setback against the Hawkeyes this past Saturday. The Boilermakers raced out to a 37-20 halftime lead over Iowa, only to get smashed in the final 20 minutes by Fran McCaffrey’s squad. No starters were in double figures for Purdue, which was led in scoring by Kendall Stephens’ 12 points in just 13 minutes of playing time. A.J. Hammons contributed 11 points and seven boards.
-- Hammons, the seven-foot senior center, is averaging team-highs in scoring (13.9 PPG), field-goal percentage (63.0) and blocked shots (2.7 BPG).
Purdue leads the nation’s in field-goal percentage defense, forcing foes into shooting at a miserable 34.8 percent clip from the field. The Boilermakers are sixth in scoring defense (59.1 PPG) and 12th in defending the 3-point line (28.3%).
Michigan (12-3 SU, 9-4 ATS) is led by senior guard Caris LeVert, who averages team-highs in scoring (17.6 PPG), assists (5.2 APG) and rebounds (5.4 RPG).
Michigan is efficient on offense, ranking No. 5 in the nation in field-goal percentage (50.9%) and No. 7 in splashing the nets from downtown (42.8%). The Wolverines are ranked 12th in the country in scoring defense, giving up just 60.9 PPG.
Matt Painter’s team has won outright in nine of 10 home games, posting a 4-2 spread record. The Boilermakers have been single-digit favorites six times (home/away/neutral), going 4-2 versus the number.
Michigan has won six in a row by double-digit margins, hooking up its backers at a 5-1 ATS clip since losing 82-58 at SMU on Dec. 8. The Wolverines have won their first two Big Ten games, including Saturday’s 79-56 win over Penn St. as 11-point home favorites. Without LeVert, UM was led by Derrick Walton Jr. and Mark Donnal’s 16 points apiece. Walton dished out seven assists, while Donnal pulled down eight rebounds. Muhammad-Ali-Abdur-Rahkman and Aubrey Dawkins finished with 14 and 13 points, respectively.
LeVert is dealing with a leg injury that kept him out at PSU. As of early this morning, he was considered ‘questionable’ for Thursday night’s showdown in West Lafayette.
Michigan is 2-1 both SU and ATS in three true road assignments.
Michigan is winless in a pair of games as an underdog this season, losing at SMU (as previously noted) and falling 74-60 to UConn as a 4.5-point ‘dog on a neutral floor.
There’s no shame in Michigan’s three defeats: at SMU, vs. UConn and vs. Xavier. The Wolverines’ best wins are at Illinois, at N.C. St. and a neutral-site triumph over Texas.
The ‘over’ is 9-4 overall for Michigan, 2-1 in its three road games. The Wolverines have watched the ‘over’ hit in five consecutive games.
The ‘under’ is 8-3 overall for the Boilermakers, 4-2 in their home outings. They have seen the ‘under’ emerge in five consecutive contests.
ESPNU will have the broadcast at 7:00 p.m. Eastern.
Arizona travels to UCLA
By Sportsbook.ag
ARIZONA WILDCATS (13-1) at UCLA BRUINS (9-6)
Sportsbook.ag Line: Arizona -3.5
UCLA is in desperate search of a home win to avoid falling to 0-3 in Pac-12 play as the team hosts No. 7 Arizona at Pauley Pavilion on Thursday night.
UCLA faces a crossroads in their season on Thursday night, as Coach Steve Alford’s team welcomes defending Pac-12 champion, No. 7 Arizona into Pauley Pavilion. Thankfully, the Bruins can refer to big wins already over Kentucky and Gonzaga to buoy their hopes, but getting swept on the Washington road trip (at the Huskies and at Washington State) on Friday and Sunday – both games having UCLA as favorites – was a start that not many saw coming.
Of course, UCLA had the tough task of coming back on one days rest after a draining 96-93 double-overtime loss at Washington, a game they probably should have lost earlier, if not for the heroics of coach Alford’s son, G Bryce Alford (17.3 PPG) hitting game-tying threes at the end of regulation and overtime. The tired Bruins then travelled to Pullman and allowed the Cougars to shoot 55% FG, 45% 3PT, in the 85-78 loss. Both Bruins losses dropped them to 0-5 ATS in their last five and 4-11 ATS overall on the year. UCLA is 6-1 at home this season (3-4 ATS), their lone home defeat coming at the hands of North Carolina, 89-76 (UCLA +8) on Dec. 19th.
Arizona comes off a big road win, turning back upstart in-state foe Arizona State, 94-82 (Arizona -3) in a game now more recognized for Sun Devils’ coach Bobby Hurley’s ejection. Coach Sean Miller, also quite the fiery competitor, has had a team at the head of the class in the Pac-12 since taking over in 2009, amassing an 80-29 record against conference foes and appearing in two straight Elite Eights.
Arizona’s recent betting trend pales in comparison to their home opponent, as the Wildcats are 7-1 ATS over their past eight games. Historically not known for their perimeter marksmanship under Miller, the Arizona faithful have been treated to 48.7% 3PT shooting over their past three games (6th NCAA in that span).
As good as the Wildcats have been, playing in Pauley Pavilion is a daunting task for anyone, and Arizona’s 2-9 SU record at Pauley over the last 11 games reflects just that. The Wildcats are 1-4 ATS at UCLA over the past five games, as well. The total has gone UNDER in four of the last five games between these two teams at UCLA. After missing the entire month of December, Arizona welcomed back C Kaleb Tarczewski (8.5 PPG, 6.8 RPG) to the fold in the win over Arizona State on Sunday. Tarczewski played 15 minutes, contributing 8 points and 5 rebounds.
Coach Miller must be thrilled to have his big man back, as Tarczewski – even though not a stat-sheet stuffer – provides needed size against Pac 12 foes, as the conference boasts many elite big men. Tarczewski will come in handy right away, battling against UCLA’s Tony Parker and Thomas Welsh. The big fella’s absence did allow Miller to develop import Dusan Ristic (8.4 PPG), as the 7-foot sophomore responded with 12.6 PPG on 71% FG in his last five games (all starts).
Allowing 63.3 PPG (22nd NCAA) Arizona has always been about defense-first under Miller (actually up from 59.7 PPG allowed last season). The Wildcats are especially stingy defending the perimeter, allowing only 29.7% 3PT (16th NCAA), which will come in handy when trying to slow down the younger Alford on the Bruins. However, Arizona has allowed 52.8% FG on two-pointers this season, which plays into UCLA’s hands with the aforementioned Parker and Welsh.
Rebounding is the main vehicle for defensive and offensive success for the Wildcats, as they boast a +12.4 rebounding margin (4th NCAA) and allow for minimal second chance looks at the hoop (6.1 offensive RPG allowed, 2nd NCAA). Regardless of roster composition, boxing out is something coach Miller stresses, as Arizona led the nation in this stat (offensive RPG allowed) with 5.7 last season.
F Ryan Anderson (15.1 PPG, 10.2 RPG) has been a revelation for Miller this season, coming over from Boston College. The 6-foot-9 senior has four straight double-doubles. Emerging on offense as one of the most exciting players in the conference has been freshman G Allonzo Trier (14.1 PPG). Trier has now scored 8 straight in double-figures, after starting the season slowly off the bench. The 6-foot-6 guard has two straight 20-point efforts in the Bruins most recent two wins, going 14-16 from the stripe. Also elevating his play as of late has been G Gabe York (13.7 PPG). York had 22 points, 5 rebounds and 6 assists in the win over Arizona State on Sunday.
UCLA’s short rotation came back to haunt them last week after having to play four starters 35+ minutes in the double-overtime loss to Washington. Alford and G Isaac Hamilton (16.1 PPG) played 48 and 43 minutes respectively. Remarkably, Alford finished with 30 points in the loss, after missing his first 11 shots. The minutes didn’t effect Hamilton on offense, who rang up a season-high 27 points in the loss to the Cougars on Sunday evening, but Alford could only struggle to 2-10 FG and 10 points.
More importantly, the Cougars tertiary scoring options on the perimeter had a field day with UCLA’s already-bad defense gone worse. F Tony Parker (13.2 PPG, 9.9 RPG) predictably had a tough time corralling Cougars’ star big man Josh Hawkinson and puffed his way to 7 points, 6 rebounds and four fouls in just 26 minutes. Parker has only averaged 8 points per game over his last three contests.
Picking up the interior slack for Parker has been 7-foot sophomore F Thomas Welsh (13.3 PPG, 8.4 RPG, 59% FG), as Welsh has double-doubles in his last three games and is much more adept at staying out of foul trouble. Freshman G Aaron Holiday (10.4 PPG, 3.2 APG) has earned the elder Alford’s trust, as he’s third on the team with 31 minutes per game, but he’s completely hit or miss with production. Holiday did score a career-high 15 points against the Cougars, taking 15 shots in the process.
Going up against Arizona’s elite defense, UCLA will have to clamp down as well, but that will be a tough task, given that their 76.5 PPG allowed (249th NCAA), is already up from 68.1 PPG allowed last season with the majority of the conference slate still to be played.