College Knowledge
Big East tournament (NYC)
-- Georgetown (+4) won 62-55 at Cincinnati Feb 15, holding Bearcats to 4-24 from arc, while UC was just 17-30 from foul line. Hoyas won 12 of last 13 games overall, beating Syracuse by double digits twice- last four Big East tourneys, they're just 4-4, but won first tournament game six of last eight years. Bearcats weren't overly taxed yesterday, jumping out to 18-point lead. 16 of last 18 Cincinnati games stayed under the total.
-- Syracuse played four starters 37+ minutes but beat Seton Hall by 12 after trailing by 10 in first half, just their second win in last eight games; Orange (+4) lost 65-55 at Pitt Feb 2; Panthers turned ball over 20 times but shot 60% inside arc. Pitt was 12-4 in Big East tourney from 2003-8, is just 1-4 last four years; Panthers won four in row, 11 of last 14 games overall. Syracuse is now 7-6 in Big East tourney since last title ('06).
-- Villanova has gone W-L in Big East tourney six of last eight years; last night was the win. Wildcats (+11) outscored Louisville 31-19 over final 10:00 to upset Cardinals 73-64 January 22 in Philly. Cardinals are 9-2 in this event last four years, but is just 2-3 in this round since joining Big East, winning by 6-11ot. Last time Villanova won two games in Big East tourney was '04. Nine of last 12 Louisville games stayed under total.
-- Marquette (-5.5) shot 64% inside arc, beat Notre Dame 72-64 at home March 2, but Irish had 17 offensive boards. Eagles won last four games, are 16-4 in last 20- they've won first tourney game five of last six years. Irish are 4-3 in its last seven games since winning consecutive OT games last month; they lost four of last six on road, played three starters 35+ minutes last night. Only once in last decade has Notre Dame won twice in same Big East tournament.
ACC tournament (Greensboro)
-- Florida State beat Clemson twice this year, by 5-3 points, racing out to 24-8 lead in first game, rallying to win second after being down 11 in second half; Seminoles are 3-1 in last four games- they won this tourney LY, but are 4-5 in first game of last nine ACC tourneys. Clemson lost its last six games, scoring 55.3 ppg; they're 3-7 in first game last 10 ACC tourneys, were 9-36 from arc vs FSU (29% from arc in ACC play).
Atlantic 16 tournament (Brooklyn)
-- Butler (-1) shot 60% inside arc, 7-13 outside it Jan 12 in 79-73 win at Dayton, during its 13-game win streak; Bulldogs were 14-7 in Horizon tourney games last decade, but this is deeper water. Dayton (0-3) hasn't won A-16 tourney game in last four years, scoring 60.7 ppg; Flyers won three of last four games, blowing OT game at GW Saturday. In six of its seven losses this season, Butler was held to 61 or less points.
Big X tournament (Kansas City)
-- Iowa State/Oklahoma are both bubble teams, but Sooners' loss at TCU last game may have crippled them; home team won both games between these clubs this year, by wide margins. Oklahoma was 34-34 from line in 86-69 win over ISU March 2 (Cyclones were 14-22). Iowa State is 5-2 in last seven games overall, but are 0-7 in Big X tourney, with last three losses by 7 points or less. Sooners are 1-4 in this event last four years.
-- Oklahoma State won 11 of last 13 games, is in tourney; Baylor is 4-8 in last 12 games, even with home upset of Kansas last game, they need at least one win this weekend to make NCAAs. Teams split two games this year, with home wide winning both; OSU was 5-37 from arc- they won first tourney game nine years in row, with three of last four by 14+ points. Baylor won six of ten games in this tourney last four years.
Pac-12 tourney (MGM Garden Arena, Las Vegas)
-- Arizona State played four guys 43+ minutes, a fifth guy 38 in 89-88 OT win yesterday that kept its NCAA hopes alive- it was first win for ASU in this event in last decade except for when it had James Harden in '09. ASU waxed UCLA by 18 at home, then lost in OT at Pauley Feb 27 in rematch. Bruins are 9-5 in this event last seven years, 3-4 in last four. its been five years since the #1 seed won this tournament. ASU's Carson is one of two best freshmen in country, gives Sun Devils a chance.
-- Arizona hasn't won Pac-12 tourney since 2002; they lost in final last two years, both by a basket. Colorado is now 5-0 in Pac-12 tournament; they split pair of games vs Arizona this year, getting robbed by refs on bad clock call in Tucson, but winning rematch by 13. Buffs' Roberson played 25 minutes yesterday in his return from illness. Arizona is 4-4 in last eight games after 20-2 start, as lack of true PG begins to show up.
-- Oregon is 5-6 in last 11 games after 18-2 start; PG Artis played 16.7 mpg in three games back from foot injury, but hasn't made 2-point hoop (5-11 from arc). Washington is now 5-2 in last seven games after holding on to beat its rival Wazzu last night, winning by basket after leading by 19 with 14:29 left- they won this tourney two of last three years, lost by hoop in first game LY. Ducks lost first tourney game three of last five years, after winning tourney in '07.
WAC tournament (Orleans Arena, Las Vegas)
-- Tex-Arlington went 11-7 in its first year in WAC despite losing twice on road last week; they swept pair vs Utah State this year, winning by 15-6 points, with +17 turnover ratio (33-16) in two games, holding State to 34.5/29.6% inside arc in those games. Mavericks are #12 team in USA in experience. Aggies are 12-4 in WAC tourney as they prepare to leave for MWC; they're banged up this season, losing last three road games.
Big West tournament (Anaheim)
-- Cal Poly won five in row, eight of last nine games; they lost by hoop at buzzer at UC-Davis Jan 10, then won rematch by 15 (led at half by 17). Mustangs lost pair of home games by total of four points last week, blowing 19-point halftime lead in final vs Irvine; they're 2-10 this season vs teams ranked higher than #199 (Cal Poly is #145). Cal Poly won first tourney game in two of three years that Callero has been their coach,
Amarillosports.com
College Basketball: Streaks, Tips, Notes
Sportspic.com
Oklahoma State vs Baylor
The Oklahoma State Cowboys earned a #3 seed in the tournament with it's 23-7 record (15-12-2 ATS), 13-5 mark within the conference (9-9 ATS) and will take on pesky Baylor Bears Thursday night at the Sprint Center in Kansas City. The Bears with an improbable win over Jayhawks in the season finale head into the tourney 18-13 overall (12-14 ATS), 9-9 in the Big 12 play (8-10 ATS). Pokes averaging 72.8 PPG behind a quad of double digit scorers including AP's Big 12 Player of the Year Marcus Smart (15.1) extend it's 9-0 (7-2 ATS) stretch in Big 12 Tourney openers busting Bears bubble.
Big Ten Tourney Tips
By Brian Edwards
VegasInsider.com
Minnesota vs. Illinois
As of Wednesday afternoon, most books had Minnesota (20-11 SU, 15-13-1 ATS) installed as a two-point favorite with a total of 127.
Tubby Smith’s squad has been the nation’s most inconsistent this year, beating top-tier teams like Memphis, Indiana and Michigan St. The Gophers have 11 total wins over teams with an RPI of 84 or better. However, they have lost at Nebraska, at Purdue and at Northwestern. Furthermore, they lost by 21 at Iowa, by 26 at Ohio St., by 11 at Michigan St. and by 18 against Duke on a neutral court.
Illinois (21-11 SU, 12-17 ATS) has been an underdog 14 times this year, compiling a 6-8 spread record. As for Minnesota, it owns a 4-6-1 ATS mark in 11 games as a single-digit favorite.
Despite back-to-back defeats to close the regular season (63-55 at Iowa and 68-55 at Ohio St.), John Groce’s team has still won six of its last nine games. However, the Illini has failed to cover the number in five consecutive games.
Illinois is No. 41 in the RPI Rankings, going 5-8 against the RPI Top 50 and 6-9 versus the RPI Top 100. I believe the Illini is ‘in’ regardless of Thursday’s outcome thanks to wins by double-digit margins at Gonzaga, vs. Ohio St. and vs. Butler on a neutral floor. They also beat Indiana at home and prevailed at Minnesota (see below).
These Big Ten rivals split a pair of regular-season meetings with the road team winning each time. On Jan. 9, Minnesota went into Champaign-Urbana and emerged with an 84-67 win as a two-point road ‘chalk.’ Joe Coleman erupted for a career-high 29 points, while Andre Hollins added 22 points, eight rebounds and six assists. Brandon Paul had 21 points in the losing effort.
In the rematch at The Barn in Minneapolis, Illinois rebounded to collect a 57-53 win as an 8.5-point road underdog. With 18.1 second left and the Illini leading by one, Tracy Abrams buried an audacious step-back trey to seal the deal. Tyler Griffey hit a career-high four 3-pointers en route to a 16-point effort for the winners.
The ‘under’ is on a 7-2 run in the Illini’s last nine games and is 15-11 overall.
The ‘under’ is on an 8-2 run in Minnesota’s last 10 games to improve to 14-10 overall.
Tip-off is scheduled for noon Eastern on the Big Ten Network.
Penn State vs. Michigan
As of Wednesday afternoon, most betting shops had Michigan (25-6 SU, 13-15-1 ATS) listed as a 14.5-point favorite with a total of 133. The Nittany Lions are +950 on the money line (per 5Dimes).
Penn St. (10-20 SU, 14-12 ATS) has been a double-digit underdog 11 times, posting a 7-4 spread record. The Nittany Lions have covered the number in six of their last seven games.
John Beilein’s team is coming off a gut-wrenching loss at home Sunday to Indiana. The Hoosiers rallied from a five-point deficit in the final minute to win by a 72-71 count as 1.5-point underdogs. Trey Burke had a team-high 20 points in the loss.
Michigan is mired in an abysmal 1-9 ATS slump in its last 10 games. The Wolverines are 7-7-1 ATS in 15 games as double-digit ‘chalk.’
Penn St. took the cash in both regular-season meetings against Michigan, beating the Wolverines 84-78 as a 13-point home underdog on Feb. 27. Jermaine Marshall scored a game-high 25 points, knocking down six 3-pointers on 10 attempts. Tim Hardaway Jr. had a team-high 19 points in the loss.
When these schools met in Ann Arbor, Michigan won a 79-71 decision but PSU backers easily cashed tickets catching 21.5 points. Burke scored 29 points and dished out five assists without committing a turnover. Marshall had 17 points and seven boards in the losing effort.
The ‘over’ is 17-12 overall for Michigan.
The ‘over’ is 14-10 overall for PSU, hitting in six of its last eight games.
The ‘over’ has hit in six straight Michigan-PSU games.
This game will come off the board 30 minutes after the Minnesota-Illinois game concludes.
Purdue vs. Nebraska
As of Wednesday afternoon, most spots had Purdue (15-16 SU, 13-16-1 ATS) listed as a 5.5-point favorite with a total of 120.5. Gamblers can take the Cornhuskers to win outright for a plus-200 return (risk $100 to win $200).
Purdue won three of its last five regular-season games, compiling a 4-1 spread record in the process. The Boilermakers have been especially tough in their last three games, winning 69-56 at Wisconsin, losing 70-65 vs. Michigan and destroying Minnesota by an 89-73 count. The win over the Badgers came as 14.5-point underdogs. They took the cash in the loss to Michigan as six-point home ‘dogs.
Matt Painter’s team has posted a 5-4 spread record in nine games as a single-digit favorite this season. However, we should point out that all five winners have come since the Boilers failed to cover in their first four such spots.Nebraska (14-17 SU, 15-13-1 ATS) has been an underdog 23 times this year, going 12-10-1 ATS.
Before dropping a 74-60 decision at Iowa as a 13-point underdog in its regular-season finale, Nebraska posted its best win of the year by knocking off Minnesota 53-51 as an 8.5-point home underdog. Brandon Ubel led the Cornhuskers past the Gophers with 15 points, six rebounds and four assists.
Since Nebraska joined the Big Ten, Purdue has won both SU and ATS in all three head-to-head meetings. The ‘over’ has cashed in all three encounters, too. The Boilers won 65-56 at Nebraska as two-point road ‘chalk’ on Jan. 16 of this year.
The ‘over’ has hit in three consecutive Purdue games to improve to 16-12 overall.
The ‘under’ is 12-11 overall for Nebraska.
Tip-off is slated for 6:30 p.m. Eastern on ESPN2.
Northwestern vs. Iowa
As of Wednesday afternoon, most books had Iowa (SU, ATS) favored by 9.5 with a total of 125. The Wildcats are +400 on the money line (risk $100 to win $400).
Fran McCaffrey’s team is on the proverbial bubble and needs at least one win, probably two, to feel good about its at-large chances. Junior slasher Roy Devyn Marble is Iowa’s premier player, averaging 14.1 points, 3.9 rebounds and 2.8 assists per game.
Iowa beat Northwestern convincingly in a pair of regular-season meetings. The Hawkeyes captured a 70-50 road win on Jan. 13 in a pick ‘em affair. Aaron White was the catalyst with 17 points, six rebounds and four assists. In Iowa City, the Hawks won a 71-57 decision as eight-point home ‘chalk.’ Marble led the way with 21 points, five boards and five assists.
Northwestern (13-18 SU, 14-14 ATS) has most likely been negatively impacted by injuries more than any team in the country this year. For starters, the Wildcats lost their star forward Drew Crawford, a four-year starter who went down with a season-ending shoulder injury in mid-December. Crawford was averaging 13.5 points and 4.6 rebounds per game. Also Jarod Swopshire, a transfer from Louisville, was lost to a knee injury in February. Swopshire was averaging 9.7 points and 6.7 rebounds per game. Finally, JerShon Cobb (7.1 PPG last year) has missed the entire season due to academics.
Senior guard Reggie Hearn has been one of the few bright spots for Bill Carmody’s squad. Hearn averages team-highs in scoring (13.2 PPG), rebounding (4.4 RPG), field-goal percentage (44.2%) and steals (1.2 per game).
The ‘under’ is 16-10-1 overall for Iowa, connecting in five of its last six contests.
The ‘under’ is 12-11-1 overall for Northwestern.
ESPN2 will have the telecast 30 minutes after the Nebraska-Purdue game ends.
Big Ten Tournament: Round 1 Betting Preview
By Covers.com
Minnesota Golden Gophers vs. Illinois Fighting Illini (+2, 129)
Teams intent on solidifying their NCAA Tournament resumes collide when Illinois and Minnesota open Big Ten tournament play in Chicago on Thursday. The eighth-seeded Fighting Illini lost three of their last four regular-season games but are counting on victories over Gonzaga, Indiana and Ohio State to bolster their at-large chances. Ninth-seeded Minnesota lost 10 of 15 games after a 15-1 start and certainly would face a nervous Selection Sunday if it loses to the Illini.
The winner faces top-seeded Indiana in Friday’s quarterfinals. Illinois and Minnesota split two regular-season meetings, each winning on the other’s home floor. Illinois views the United Center as a home away from home and has a 33-11 record in the facility. Minnesota is 5-9 on the road and neutral courts. The Golden Gophers lead the Big Ten with an plus-8.1 rebounding margin while Illinois (minus-0.7) is one of three conference teams that have been outrebounded overall.
TRENDS:
* Under is 7-3 in the last 10 meetings.
* Favorite is 14-6 ATS in the last 20 meetings.
* Golden Gophers are 6-14 ATS in the last 20 meetings.
Penn State Nittany Lions vs. Michigan Wolverines (-14.5, 135)
Fifth-seeded Michigan doesn’t have to be reminded about what could happen it if overlooks 12th-seeded Penn State when it opens Big Ten tournament play Thursday. The No. 8 Wolverines let a 15-point lead get away in losing to the Nittany Lions on Feb. 27 in one of the more stunning upsets of the college season. Penn State had lost 14 straight games prior to delivering a blow that helped derail Michigan’s hopes of winning the regular-season crown.
The winner of this contest faces fourth-seeded Wisconsin in Friday’s quarterfinals. The Wolverines were in the running for an opening-round bye – not to mention a share of the Big Ten crown – until losing to Indiana in the regular-season finale. Penn State went 2-2 over its final four regular-season games after going nearly two months without a victory. The Nittany Lions defeated 11th-place Northwestern in addition to the Wolverines. Michigan won the first meeting, 79-71, 10 days prior to losing to Penn State.
TRENDS:
* Over is 6-0 in the last six meetings.
* Favorite is 14-6-1 ATS in the last 21 meetings.
* Nittany Lions are 6-15-1 ATS in the last 22 meetings.
Nebraska Cornhuskers vs. Purdue Boilermakers (-6.5, 124)
Purdue’s only chance at extending its NCAA Tournament streak to seven is to win the Big Ten tourney and the Boilermakers begin that arduous task against 10th-seeded Nebraska on Thursday in Chicago. The seventh-seeded Boilermakers are one game below .500 entering the tourney and need four victories in four days to keep the streak from being halted. The Cornhuskers are rebuilding under first-year coach Tim Miles and surviving past Friday would rate as a significant accomplishment.
The winner of the contest faces second-seeded Ohio State in Friday’s quarterfinals. Purdue won this season’s lone meeting by recording a 65-56 win on Nebraska’s home floor on Jan. 16. The Boilermakers routed Minnesota 89-73 in their regular-season finale and have won three of five games entering the tournament. The Cornhuskers also recently defeated Minnesota for their only victory in their last four games. Nebraska averages a conference-low 58.6 points per game.
TRENDS:
* Cornhuskers are 2-5 ATS in their last seven neutral-site games.
* Boilermakers are 5-11 ATS in their last 16 neutral site games.
* Over is 24-11 in Boilermakers' last 35 vs. Big Ten.
Northwestern Wildcats vs. Iowa Hawkeyes (-9, 124)
Iowa needs a strong performance in the Big Ten tournament to improve its dicey NCAA Tournament hopes. The sixth-seeded Hawkeyes open conference tourney play against 11th-seeded Northwestern in Chicago on Thursday and an opening-game loss would squash Iowa’s chances at earning an at-large bid. Iowa has won six of its last eight games and probably needs at least two more wins to improve its odds. Northwestern has lost eight straight games and 10 of 11.
The winner of the contest faces third-seeded Michigan State in Friday’s quarterfinals. The Hawkeyes won the two regular-season meetings with the Wildcats by an average of 17 points. Northwestern has averaged just 51.8 points during its losing skid and ranks 11th in the Big Ten at 60.8 per outing. Iowa ranks third in the conference in scoring at 70.3 and leads the Big Ten in field-goal percentage defense at 38.7. Northwestern shoots 40.2 percent, second-lowest in the conference. The Hawkeyes are just 4-9 on road and neutral courts.
TRENDS:
* Over is 5-2-1 in the last eight meetings.
* Underdog is 9-4-1 ATS in the last 14 meetings.
* Under is 10-4-1 in Wildcats last 15 vs. Big Ten.
ACC Tournament: Round 1 Betting Preview
By Covers.com
Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets vs. Boston College Eagles (+1.5, 130)
Boston College came from behind to beat Georgia Tech 74-72 for its third consecutive victory to end the regular season last Saturday. Five days later, the two young, improving teams meet again in the first round of the ACC tournament at Greensboro, N.C. Eighth-seeded Boston College also rallied to beat Virginia and Clemson in the last three games, shooting a combined 48.9 percent from the field. Guard Olivier Hanlan, named the league’s rookie of the year on Tuesday, has led the way for the Eagles of late.
Georgia Tech could not follow up its win at regular-season champ Miami (Fla.) on March 6, allowing a late 12-0 Boston College surge. The ninth-seeded Yellow Jackets can earn another game against the Hurricanes on Friday with a victory, although they must improve on their league-low 42.4 percent shooting to make a run.
TRENDS:
* Yellow Jackets are 1-4 ATS in the last five meetings.
* Underdog is 7-1 ATS in the last eight meetings.
* Eagles are 1-3-1 ATS in their last five neutral-site games.
Virginia Tech Hokies vs. North Carolina State Wolfpack (-11.5, 155)
North Carolina State blew an eight-point lead in the second half of its regular-season finale at Florida State and lost 71-67, dropping to the fifth seed for the ACC tournament. That means the Wolfpack will have to win four games in four days to wear the crown, starting with 12th-seeded Virginia Tech in the first round at Greensboro, N.C. on Thursday. North Carolina State is second in the league in scoring, but has struggled defensively at times and is 3-5 in its last eight games decided by four points or less.
The Wolfpack will have to contain the nation’s leading scorer Erick Green, who dropped 29 on them in his team’s 90-86 overtime loss on Feb. 16. Virginia Tech is last in the league in scoring defense, one spot below North Carolina State, and has lost 12 of its last 14 games.
TRENDS:
* Hokies are 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.
* Hokies are 2-5-1 ATS in their last eight neutral-site games.
* Wolfpack are 16-5 ATS in their last 21 neutral-site games.
Wake Forest Demon Deacons vs. Maryland Terrapins (-6, 136)
Maryland will have history on its side when the seventh-seeded Terrapins open the ACC tournament against 10th-seeded Wake Forest on Thursday at Greensboro, N.C. The Terrapins have won six straight against the Demon Deacons and their last six meeting at the conference tournament. The winner will play No. 2 Duke, the second seed, in Friday's quarterfinals.
Maryland's bubble may have burst with Sunday's loss at Virginia but coach Mark Turgeon more focused on seeing his young team improve. "We never talk about (the postseason)," Turgeon said in Monday's ACC teleconference. "We just try to get better. If you play well, things will take care of themselves." The Demon Deacons snapped a three-game losing streak with a 90-79 win against Virginia Tech, where they shot 59.2 percent.
TRENDS:
* Favorite is 5-0-1 ATS in the last six meetings.
* Demon Deacons are 0-7-1 ATS in the last eight meetings.
* Over is 10-2 in Demon Deacons last 12 neutral site games.
Clemson Tigers vs. Florida State Seminoles (-1, 122)
Sixth-seeded Florida State will begin defense of its ACC tournament title Thursday against Clemson at Greensboro, N.C. The Seminoles enter the game off back-to-back home wins while the 11th-seeded Tigers have lost nine of 10. The winner will play No. 3 seed North Carolina in Friday's quarterfinals.
Florida State swept Clemson by a combined eight points this season, getting a buzzer-beating 3-pointer from senior Michael Snaer on Jan. 24. In three of their six meetings at the ACC tournament, one team has swept the regular-season games only to lose in the postseason. Clemson senior center Devin Booker finished the season hot and the Tigers got sophomore K.J. McDaniels back in the regular-season finale.
TRENDS:
* Tigers are 5-2-1 ATS in the last eight meetings.
* Underdog is 7-3-1 ATS in the last 11 meetings.
* Seminoles are 4-11-1 ATS in their last 16 games overall.
Thursday Cliff Notes
By Dave Essler
Arkansas-Vanderbilt: Let's not underestimate that this game is being played in Tennessee. Vandy basketball draws and travels well. And we know that the Hogs lone road win this entire season away from Bud Walton Arena was over Auburn, which is nothing to be proud of. This should be a war, because early in the season Arkansas held Vanderbilt to a mere 33 points, and in the rematch the Commodores crushed THEM by 18. The current line has the Hogs favored, and perhaps that's because they did win some fairly impressive home games. Vanderbilt does come in having won four of their last five, albeit against teams they should beat. Since it's much easier to slow a game down than speed it up, Vanderbilt ought to slow the pace down. The don't have the experience (at all) but do have the length. IMO it all comes down to which Sophomore PG plays better, BJ Young or Kedren Johnson. FWIW two of the last three games Johnson went to the line 12+ times. If he does that here, Vanderbilt wins.
Minnesota-Illinois: Obviously in Chicago you would think there'd be a bit of a home court crowd for Illinois, but they were actually pummeled but when these two met in Illinois earlier the Gophers crushed them. Illinois eeked out a win in a low scoring game at Minnesota, so obviously either team is capable. Both teams are technically "in" as of now, but either could play their way right out, so there's some big ramifications here. With that in mind I'd expect this game to be deliberate and low scoring. It might be hard to trust a Minnesota team that limps in with two pretty ugly road losses, or at least uglier than the two Illinois had. Neither team comes in hot/confident. Illinois with a bit more size and experience, and without looking too much further, which I will, I would have to trust the Senior Brandon Paul (Illinois) over the Sophomore Andre Hollins for Minnesota. Just cannot wrap my head around the Gophers turnovers, especially given that Illinois plays a bit faster and in this venue could speed the game up. My only concern fading Minnesota is that they are an excellent offensive rebounding team, but Illinois creates far more turnovers and it's Illinois I'd want at the line late.
Iowa State-Oklahoma: These two met twice this year, with the home team simply crushing both games. Oklahoma's revenge win in Norman was less than two weeks ago, so I would think that would perhaps favor Iowa State a little. iowa State is a projected 12 seed and falling, while Oklahoma is a fairly solid #10 seed. That would certainly tell me the game means more to ISU. Funny how if the Sooners win and ISU doesn't get it, they knock someone from their own Conference out. Neither team does much of anything away from their own gym. ISU was knocked out in the first round be Texas last season, while the Sooners were also done in one by the Aggies. I'd like to take ISU here, because I love Korie Lucious. My one issue is that Oklahoma is much bigger on the perimeter. Since neither of them turn it over much, both are superior from the line, and suck at offensive rebounds, this could be the squarest over play I may make.
Dayton-Butler: Obviously one of these teams is more public than the other, which is probably built into the line. Butler won at Dayton earlier this season, and is bolting from the A-10 after a season. Clearly that's also putting a bigger target on their backs, but it is still Butler and it is still Brad Stevens. What I don't like about trying to back Dayton (which I would instinctively) is that they haven't beaten a good team, in conference, away from home. If Dayton's going to win, they're probably going to have to make some three's, which is not there norm, although they do shoot well from outside. Inside, they're fairly young with the exception of Benson, and that could pose a problem. And I'm not really sure I trust their defense, although perhaps a better way to put it is that I trust Butler's more. Dayton does have some turnover issues that scare me, but Butler's defense, although excellent, is not a pressure defense. And Butler can get sloppy as well, which might make me go with the under in this one. It'll be a very deliberate pace, and barring last minute foul-fest's might be hard pressed to get to the number.
George Washington-Umass: Most of you know I like to fade Umass when they're not in Amherst, but they played well down the stretch except against a highly motivated Butler team coming in off of two losses. GW comes in after beating Dayton in their season finale, and had lost four straight prior to. The thing about that is that three of them were on the road, and the home loss was to St. Louis, so they very well may be a bit under the radar here. The downside is that they won at Amherst, so perhaps UMass remembers that. I think they will, but, GW is a team that would be more than happy to play at the pace the Redmen want to play. The big difference between these two is that GW just doesn't take three point shots, while Umass will take as many as they can. In A-10 play, GW was the number one offensive rebounding team, which is obviously huge. I'd love to take them, and may, but shooting free throws is also something they just don't do well, nor is defending three's, at least in conference play. UMass is a good free throw shooting team, so inasmuch as I'd like to take the points, it's going to take more digging (they all do) to get there. I do think that the total will be higher than it needs to be just because of who these teams are and how they like to play. But, on a neutral site I'd have to think that the turnovers and missed free throws keep it under, and I see it's already lost a bit off of the opener, which as ALREADY less than I had hoped for. This one will beg the aged old question as to whether it's a number we cannot live with, or it there for a reason and we ought to bet it.
SEC Tournament: Round 2 Betting Preview
By Covers.com
LSU Tigers vs. Georgia Bulldogs (-1, 129)
Louisiana State finished out the regular season with eight wins in its last 12 games to get itself near the NCAA Tournament bubble. The eighth-seeded Tigers will try to get one step closer to at-large consideration when they begin SEC tournament play against No. 9 seed Georgia on Thursday in Nashville. The Bulldogs ended the season strong as well, and took the lone regular-season meeting with LSU at home Jan. 19.
Georgia has some experience trying to knock SEC teams off the bubble. The Bulldogs won home games against Tennessee and Kentucky this month to throw a wrench into both of those schools’ tournament plans. The Tigers will probably need to beat both Georgia and top seed Florida in the next round to catch the eye of the selection committee.
TRENDS:
* Under is 4-0 in the last four meetings.
* Favorite is 6-0 ATS in the last six meetings.
* Tigers are 7-2 ATS in the last nine meetings.
Mississippi State Bulldogs vs. Tennessee Volunteers (-13.5, 132)
Tennessee is accustomed to finishing the regular season strong, and hopes to carry that good work into its SEC tournament opener. The fifth-seeded Volunteers take on Mississippi State in the tournament’s second round Thursday in Nashville after winning eight of their final nine regular-season games for the second consecutive season. The Volunteers have played well in close games down the stretch, winning six games by 10 points or less in the past five weeks.
Sophomore forward Jarnell Stokes won conference player of the week last week after posting double-doubles in his past two games. The 13th-seeded Bulldogs lost 13 in a row earlier this season, but have won three of their past four contests. Mississippi State used freshman Fred Thomas’ career-high 21 points to eliminate South Carolina in the first round 70-59 on Wednesday.
TRENDS:
* Bulldogs are 3-7 ATS in the last 10 meetings.
* Underdog is 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings.
* Bulldogs are 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall.
Vanderbilt Commodores vs. Arkansas Razorbacks (-3.5, 125)
Tenth-seeded Vanderbilt and seventh-seeded Arkansas meet Thursday in Nashville with each looking for an improbable run through the SEC tournament. The winner plays second-seeded Kentucky in Friday's quarterfinals. Arkansas will need to make some serious noise this week, probably reach the tourney finals, to play itself back into consideration for an at-large NCAA Tournament bid. Without an SEC tournament title, Vanderbilt will miss the NCAA Tournament for the second time in seven years. The Razorbacks haven't made it since 2008.
The Commodores and Razorbacks split two meetings this season, with Vanderbilt winning Feb. 9 in Nashville, 67-49. Both teams are coming off wins in their regular-season finales. The Commodores dispatched South Carolina 76-64, and the Razorbacks knocked off Texas A&M 73-62. Vanderbilt has never defeated Arkansas in conference tournament play.
TRENDS:
* Over is 9-3 in the last 12 meetings.
* Commodores are 5-2 ATS in their last seven games overall.
* Razorbacks are 3-9 ATS in their last 12 neutral site games.
Texas A&M Aggies vs. Missouri Tigers (-9.5, 141)
Missouri opens play in its first SEC tournament Thursday with a second-round matchup against former Big 12 rival Texas A&M. The 11th-seeded Aggies advanced with a 71-62 victory over Auburn on Wednesday in the first round, but the Tigers from Missouri should offer a much more difficult challenge than the Tigers from Auburn. Texas A&M defeated sixth-seeded Missouri during the regular season 70-68.
To do it again, they'll need to contend with the high-powered Missouri offense, which averages 77.2 points. That means Elston Turner, Texas A&M's leading scorer who returned from a one-game absence because of a hand injury to score 22 points against Auburn, needs to have another big game.
TRENDS:
* Over is 8-1 in the last nine meetings.
* Aggies are 11-3 ATS in the last 14 meetings.
* Underdog is 5-2 ATS in the last 7 meetings.
Pac-12 Tournament: Quarterfinals Betting Preview
By Covers.com
Arizona State Sun Devils vs. UCLA Bruins (-4, 142)
When Arizona State and No. 25 UCLA meet Thursday in the quarterfinals of the Pac-12 tournament, expect a group of freshmen to take center stage in Las Vegas. Jahii Carson of ninth-seeded Arizona State and Shabazz of Muhammad of top-seeded UCLA were voted Pac-12 Co-Freshmen of the Year and each leads his team in scoring.
Carson scored a season-high 34 points in a first-round overtime victory Wednesday against Stanford, boosting his season average to 18.3. Muhammad, who grew up in Las Vegas, also averages 18.3 points, most at the school since Dion Thompson averaged 18.4 for the 2004-05 season. Muhammad isn’t the only freshman standout for the Bruins. Jordan Adams is second on the team and eighth in the Pac-12 in scoring at 15.2 points. Kyle Anderson is the only player in the conference who ranks in the top 10 in rebounds (8.9) and assists (3.6). He also contributes 9.9 points.
TRENDS:
* Sun Devils are 5-2 ATS in their last seven games overall.
* Bruins are 7-21 ATS in their last 28 neutral-site games.
* Under is 24-8-1 in Sun Devils last 33 overall.
Colorado Buffaloes vs. Arizona Wildcats (-4, 133)
Colorado will try to continue its strong play this season against No. 18 Arizona when the teams meet Thursday in the Pac-12 tournament quarterfinals in Las Vegas. The fourth-seeded Wildcats needed overtime to beat the No. 5 Buffaloes in the conference opener Jan. 3 in Tucson. A 3-point try at the end of regulation by Colorado guard Sabatino Chen was ruled to have left his hand after the buzzer and Arizona stormed away in overtime.
That loss seemed to take a toll on Colorado as the Buffaloes lost three of their next four games in Pac-12 play. They regrouped to beat visiting Arizona by 12 points on Valentine’s Day. The Wildcats didn’t have an answer for Colorado guard Spencer Dinwiddie in the second meeting as he scored 19 of his 21 points in the second half. Dinwiddie scored 20 in a first-round victory Wednesday against Oregon State. The Buffaloes have won nine of their last 10 games on neutral courts, including last season’s tournament championship.
TRENDS:
* Under is 4-1 in the last five meetings.
* Underdog is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.
* Buffaloes are 12-3-1 ATS in their last 16 neutral-site games.
Utah Utes vs. California Golden Bears (-7.5, 122)
California will try for its sixth consecutive victory against Utah when the teams meet Thursday in the quarterfinals of the Pac-12 tournament in Las Vegas. The second-seeded Golden Bears feature the Pac-12 Player of the Year in junior guard Allen Crabbe, who led the conference during the regular season at 18.6 points.
Crabbe was particularly tough on the Utes this season, scoring 23 points in a 62-57 victory in Salt Lake City on Jan. 24 and a month later posting 15 points and 11 rebounds - one of two double-doubles on the season - in a 64-46 victory by the host Golden Bears. Utah was held to its lower scoring output this season in the second game. Utah will need a big game from its own leading scorer and Los Angeles native, senior guard Jarred DuBois. He helped carry Utah through its first-round game against USC, scoring 22 points in the 69-66 victory.
TRENDS:
* Under is 5-1 in the last six meetings.
* Utes are 1-4 ATS in the last five meetings.
* Utes are 26-10-1 ATS in their last 37 games overall.
Oregon Ducks vs. Washington Huskies (+3, 139)
Oregon will try to regroup Thursday night when it plays sixth-seeded Washington in the quarterfinals of the Pac-12 tournament in Las Vegas. The third-seeded Ducks blew a chance to clinch the Pac-12 title and earn the top seeding for this tournament by losing their final two regular-season games last week, both by double figures.
If the Ducks hope to avoid losing three in a row for the first time this season, they’ll need to find their shooting stroke. They combined to shoot 40 percent from the floor in the last two games and 22-for-44 from the free throw line. Washington blew a 19-point second-half lead in their tournament opener Wednesday night against Washington State, but the Huskies scored the only two points of the final 2:50 and held on for a 64-62 win. Washington went 0-2 against the Ducks this season.
TRENDS:
* Underdog is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.
* Ducks are 3-12-1 ATS in their last 16 games overall.
* Under is 8-1-1 in Huskies last 10 overall.
Big 12 Tournament: Quarterfinals Betting Preview
By Covers.com
Iowa State Cyclones vs. Oklahoma Sooners (Pick, 158)
Oklahoma looks to keep pace with high-scoring Iowa State when the fourth-seeded Sooners play the fifth-seeded Cyclones on Thursday in a Big 12 tournament quarterfinal. The Sooners have scored at least 83 points in five of their last six games, but have dropped two of their last four and are coming off a 70-67 loss at Texas Christian on Saturday. Oklahoma split with Iowa State in the regular season, winning 86-69 on March 2 at home and losing 83-64 on Feb. 4 in Ames.
Iowa State has a two-game win streak and is coming off an 83-74 victory at West Virginia on Saturday. The Cyclones have scored at least 83 points in seven of their last eight games, the exception coming against Oklahoma two weeks ago. The winner will play No. 1 seed Kansas, No. 8 West Virginia or No. 9 Texas Tech in Friday's semifinals.
TRENDS:
* Over is 11-1 in the last 12 meetings.
* Cyclones are 12-4-1 ATS in the last 17 meetings.
* Over is 23-4 in Cyclones' last 27 overall.
Texas Tech Red Raiders vs. Kansas Jayhawks (-21, 136)
Kansas looks to avoid a two-game losing streak and a major upset when the No. 6 and top-seeded Jayhawks play ninth-seeded Texas Tech in a Big 12 tournament quarterfinal Thursday. Kansas is coming off an 81-58 loss at Baylor on Saturday that snapped a seven-game win streak. The Big 12 regular-season co-champion Jayhawks enter the tournament as the top seed for the 10th time in the league’s 17-year history.
Texas Tech is coming off a 71-69 victory over eighth-seeded West Virginia in the opening game of the tournament Wednesday. The Red Raiders won at the buzzer thanks to Dejan Kravic’s put-back of teammate Jamal Williams’ missed 3-pointer. Texas Tech is 4-24 in the series against Kansas, which has won the last seven meetings, including 79-42 on March 4 in Lawrence and 60-46 on Jan. 12 in Lubbock.
TRENDS:
* Favorite is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.
* Under is 6-2 in the last eight meetings.
* Red Raiders are 1-4 ATS in the last five meetings.
Texas Longhorns vs. Kansas State Wildcats (-6, 133)
Kansas State begins its Big 12 Tournament play Thursday with a quarterfinal matchup against Texas at Kansas City. The No. 12 Wildcats won 10 of their final 12 games to earn a tie for the Big 12 regular-season title. Kansas State racked up a school-record 25 regular-season wins but missed its chance at capturing the outright conference title by losing at Oklahoma State in its season finale on Saturday.
Seventh-seeded Texas fended off Texas Christian in its tournament opener on Wednesday. The Longhorns led most of the way but needed an 11-2 run in the second half and a steady dose of solid defense to secure the win. Texas has won six of its last nine games, but one of those losses was against Kansas State.
TRENDS:
* Over is 5-0 in the last five meetings.
* Underdog is 10-4-1 ATS in the last 15 meetings.
* Longhorns are 3-11-1 ATS in the last 15 meetings.
Baylor Bears vs. Oklahoma State Cowboys (-2.5, 141)
Baylor looks to improve its NCAA Tournament resume when the sixth-seeded Bears meet No. 3-seed Oklahoma State in the Big 12 tournament quarterfinals Thursday. Baylor enters on a high note after a surprising 81-58 rout of Kansas last Saturday, while Oklahoma State finished third in the Big 12 after closing out the regular season with a 76-70 win over Kansas State.
The Bears fell onto the NCAA Tournament bubble after losing five of six before stunning Kansas. Baylor doesn’t have many marquee victories, so the Bears likely need a strong showing in Kansas City to impress the selection committee. Oklahoma State and Baylor split two meetings this season, each winning at home.
TRENDS:
* Favorite is 11-2 ATS in the last 13 meetings.
* Under is 5-1 in the last six meetings.
* Bears are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 vs. Big 12.