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College Basketball Betting News and Notes Thursday, March 17

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Afternoon Games

Since 2003, Duke is 5-8 vs spread in first round games; they are lower than a 3-seed for first time since '07, when they lost in first round to VCU as 6-seed. Duke's subs play 7th-least minutes in country; longer TV timeouts will help, but UNCW is pressing team with lot of depth. Seahawks are 16-2 in last 18 games; they haven't played in 10 days- Duke played Friday. Wilmington is a young team, but five pf seven guys in Duke rotation are frosh, sophs. ACC teams are 5-3 vs CAA teams this year, 3-5 vs spread. #4 seeds in West are 3-12 vs spread in 1st round the last 16 years.

Since 2003, underdogs are 31-21 vs spread in 8-9 first round games. Butler is 4-0 in last four first round games, dating back to their days in Horizon League. Bulldogs went 11-1 in pre-conference schedule (#279), went 7-3 last 10 games but lost to Providence in first round of Big East tourney- they're only team to beat Seton Hall since Jan 23 (beat Pirates twice). Texas Tech is in NCAAs for first time since '07; Tubby Smith is 7-2 in last nine first round games, but he was 1-2 at Minnesota, 6-0 at Kentucky. Big East teams are just 9-9 SU in first round last three years; Big X teams are 8-10.

UConn is 17-2 in last 19 first round games; they won in OT vs St Joe's in first round in '14, when they won national title. Huskies came off deck Friday, won in 4OTs, won AAC tourney. UConn are #5 eFG% defense in country, #1 foul shooting team, but they also finished 6th in 11-team AAC; Colorado is in for 4th time in five years- they went 1-2 in first round those years. Buffs are 1-6 in last seven games away from Boulder. Since 2003, underdogs are 31-21 vs spread in 8-9 first round games. AAC teams are 2-3 vs Pac-12 teams this year; Colorado lost 70-66 to AAC kingpin SMU in December in Las Vegas.

Selection committee did Yale a favor, putting game in Providence, 100 miles from New Haven campus; Yale is in tourney for first time since 1962- they're going to have lot of fans there. Baylor is 5-7 in last 12 games- their last four losses were to Top 10 teams. Bears are 3-2 in last five first round games; they got upset as a 3-seed by Georgia State LY. Baylor is 10-2 out of conference, losing to Oregon/Texas A&M. Ivy League teams are 3-3 SU in first round last six years, after losing six in row before that; Big X teams are 3-0 vs Ivy teams this year, winning by 10-6-12 points.

Hampton is 0-4 vs top 100 teams, losing by 19-33-42-30 points. Virginia beat Pirates 69-40 at home three years ago; game was 40-19 at half. Cavaliers lost in ACC tourney final Saturday; they're 13-3 in last 16 games, won 11 of 12 out of conference, beating MEAC's Morgan State by 38 in opener. Last three years, underdogs are 8-4 vs spread in 1-16 games, as 1-seeds tend to look ahead to secnd round games. Since '09, MEAC teams are 2-5 vs spread in non-play-in games; Hampton won play-in game LY, then lost to Kentucky by 23, so they shouldn't be in awe. Playing team from same state isn't a bad thing.

Austin Peay finished 7-9 in OVC but won last six games, are here for first time since 2008; Governors lost by 39-26 in only two top 100 games, vs Vandy and Indiana. OVC teams are 8-3 vs spread in first round game last 11 years-- this isn't best OVC team, though. Kansas is 2-5 vs spread in 1st round last seven years- they will have ton of pressure on them Saturday, having lost in second round last two years, to Stanford/Wichita- this is 7th year in a row Jayhawks are 1 or 2-seed and they've KO'd on first weekend three times. Austin Peay is turning ball over 20.4% of time, playing against schedule #230.

Last seven years, underdogs are 18-10 vs spread in 5-12 games. Little Rock is 29-4, a deep team with wins at San Diego St, Tulsa; they're #13 in experience- bench is #44 in minutes played- this is their first NCAA in eight years, when they lost play-in game. Trojans play 7th-slowest tempo in country; they're not a big team and Purdue is a top 25 rebounding team. Since '07, Sun Belt teams are 6-3 vs spread in this round. Not sure if it is relevant; since 1994, #12 seed in Midwest is 17-5 vs spread in 1st round. Boilers don't force lot of turnovers; they've got #6 eFG% defense, have won five of last six games overall.

Buffalo lost 68-62 to West Virginia in this round LY; game was tied with 2:42 left; Bulls have new coach now, won six of last eight games- they're 1-7 vs top 100 teams, with only win in MAC title game over Akron- they play #25 tempo Miami is #23 in experience but is in NCAAs for first time in three years; 'canes lost two of last three games- they're 7-1 vs teams outside top 100- this is first game vs team outside top 100 since January 23, vs Wake Forest. Underdogs are 8-4 vs spread in 3-14 games last three years. ACC teams are 4-0 vs MAC teams this year, winning by 9-9-23-33 points (2-2 vs spread).

Night Games

Southern Conference teams haven't won NCAA game since Steph Curry was at Davidson, but since '03, they're 9-3-1 vs spread in this round. Chattanooga is 42-10 in SoCon last three years but is in NCAAs for first time since '09 with rookie coach. Mocs beat Georgia/Dayton/Illinois by total of 8 points back in fall- they're #17 in experience. Indiana makes 41.5% on arc, has senior PG and is #2 eFG% offense in country, but they did lose first conference tourney tilt, often a red flag. Chattanooga forces turnovers 20.3% of time, #53 in country. Last seven years, underdogs are 18-10 against the spread in 5-12 games.

North Carolina won its last 13 first round games, last two by hoop each; they are 1-4 vs spread in last five first round games. This is first time they're a 1-seed since '12, when they made Elite 8- their last Final Four was '09. UNC is 21-4 in last 25 games, with all four losses to top 40 teams. Florida Gulf Coast is 0-3 vs top 100 teams, losing by 20-10-4 points; Eagles crushed FDU Tuesday, easy day to bounce back from. Atlantic Sun teams pulled big upsets in last two non-play-in games- since '03, they're 6-6-1 vs spread in this round. FGCU defends arc well, but UNC doesn't shoot lot of 3's. Last three years, underdogs are 8-4 vs spread in 1-16 games.

Fresno State has an experienced backcourt but won Mountain West tourney in very down year for league; Bulldogs are in NCAAs for first time since 2001, they lost by 5 at Oregon, 13 at Arizona last fall. Utah won nine of last 10 tilts; they beat San Diego State by 5 in its only MW game. Utes made Sweet 16 LY; they're 8-1 vs teams ranked outside top 100. Fresno is #19 in experience; they start three senior guards, but Poeltl is going to kill their inside guys. Pac-12 teams are 13-3 vs Mountain West this year, 8-8 vs spread (8-5 as favorites). Underdogs are 8-4 against the spread in 3-14 games last three years.

Arizona is #6 seed in South; last six years, #6-seed in South is 1-5 with three one-point losses in this round. Wildcats are 4-0 in first round games under Miller (1-3 vs spread); they split their last six games, with five of them decided by 6 or less points. Wichita State is 20-3 in its last 23 games; they closed on 20-2 run vs Vandy Tuesday in Dayton. Shockers won last three first round games, allowing average of 48.7 ppg. MVC teams split four games with Pac-12 teams this year; Wichita beat Utah by 17, Arizona waxed Bradley by 30. VanVleet and Baker played 34-33 minutes Tueasday; no other Shocker played more than 29:00. Since 2009, Pac-12 teams are 23-6 in this round.

Kentucky is 5-0 in first round under Calipari (2-3 vs spread); they made Final Four last four times they were in tournament. Wildcats opened season with a 78-65 win over Albany, one of Stony Brook's rivals in America East. Stony Brook is in NCAAs for first time; they had 18-game win streak during season. Seawolves lost at Vandy in OT, by 25 at Notre Dame- they're #24 experience team in country. America East teams covered four of last five non-play-in games. Last 10 years, favorites are 23-17 vs spread in 4-13 first round games. Kentucky has to guard against looking ahead to Indiana in second round.

Since 2009, Pac-12 teams are 23-6 in this round. USC lost seven of its last ten games overall, Providence won four of its last five. USC is 3-7 vs top 50 teams this season- this is their first NCAA since 2011, but Enfield was in Sweet 16 three years ago with Florida Gulf Coast, beating Georgetown in 1st round. Providence has two really good players, Dunn/Bentil; they beat Arizona of Pac-12 in November and made NCAAs last two years, but lost in first round both times. Big East teams are just 9-9 in this round last three years. Since 2003, underdogs are 31-21 vs spread in 8-9 first round games. Weird game; chances are no seniors will play for either team.

Gonzaga is in only because they won WCC tourney- they haven't been on court in 11 days, but also won last seven first round games, winning as 7, 8 (twice) and 11-seeds, so they've been in this boat before. Seton Hall is in NCAAs for first time in 10 years; they won eight of last nine games, winning Big East tourney for first time since 1993. Pirates start five sophs, don't play many subs. Hall played Saturday night. Big East teams are just 9-9 in this round last three years. Gonzaga scored 88.3 in winning the WCC tourney. Last four years, faves are 11-4-1 vs spread in 6-11 games. Zags start two seniors, have slight edge in experience, big edge in height inside.

MAAC teams are 0-7 in first round (0-7 vs spread) since Siena beat Ohio State in an 8-9 game in '09; Iona lost by 25-16 points its last two times in this round. Gaels are 12-1 in last 13 games, but 2-7 vs top 100 teams, with two wins vs Monmouth. Iowa State is #4 in experience; their bench plays 5th-least minutes in country. Cyclones got upset in first round as 3-seed LY, after making Sweet 16 the year before. ISU beat Chattanooga by 20 in November, a team with similar profile to Iona. Last 10 years, favorites are 23-17 vs spread in 4-13 first round games. Two thin teams who like to run playing in Denver; total was posted at 166.

Friday

Afternoon Games

Dayton (+6.5) upset Syracuse 55-53 in second round 3-11 game couple years ago in Buffalo; Orange were 0-10 on arc that day. Syracuse won five of last six first-round games, but lost five of its last six games overall, losing last three, all by 5 or less points- they made 20-45 on arc in neutral court wins vs UConn, Texas A&M in November- they're shooting 36.1% on arc, are thin (#350 subs' minutes). Last eight years, underdogs are 10-7-1 vs spread in 7-10 first round games. ACC teams are 14-2 SU in first round last three years; A-14 teams are 3-6, with Dayton two of three wins. Dayton split its last eight games, after a 21-3 start.

Lot of pressure on Villanova this weekend; last three times they were a #1 or 2 seed, they didn't get past first weekend; other two times, they were 9-seed and lost in first round. Wildcats won five of last six games overall, losing by hoop to Seton Hall in Big East tourney final. NC-Asheville tied for 3rd in Big South, but is 15-seed, first time since Winthrop in '08 that Big South team is higher than a 16. Big South teams are 2-4 vs spread since '08 n first round, after covering five in row before that. NC-Asheville won at Georgetown, lost by 28 at Texas A&M in its two top 100 games. Since 2008, #2-seeds who are favored by 16+ points are 6-12 vs spread in this round.

VCU lost first round games in OT last two years; this is Wade's first NCAA- he went 27-7 in SoCon at Chattanooga, but never got this far. Oregon State is in NCAAs for first time since 1990, when Gary Payton was the Beavers' star; now his son is OSU's star. Tinkle was 0-3 in NCAAs at Montana. OSU is 4-8 vs top 50 teams. Beavers split last eight games overall; freshman wing Tinkle (foot) is out. VCU is 7-5 in last 12 games after a 17-5 start; Rams Since 2009, Pac-12 teams are 23-6 in this round. Last eight years, underdogs are 10-7-1 vs spread in 7-10 first round games. VCU is 1-6 vs top 60 teams this season.

Hawai'i is 11-2 in last 13 games; they're 10-2 on mainland after playing once on mainland before Jan 14. Rainbows lost to Oklahoma by 3, Texas Tech 8 in its only two top 70 games this year- best team they beat was Northern Iowa by 16 on Dec 22. Over last decade, Big West teams are 0-10 in non-play-in games (3-7 vs spread). Cal Bears split last four games, losing to Utah in OT in Pac-12 tourney; they've got one senior in talented, 8-man rotation. Pac-12 teams are 15-1 vs Big West this year (10-6 vs spread). Last 10 years, favorites are 23-17 vs spread in 4-13 first round games. Hawai'i is #48 in country in experience.

Middle Tennessee is in NCAAs for first time since losing play-in game in '11; Blue Raiders won Alaskan Shootout, are 0-2 vs top 100 teams, losing by 6-4 to VCU, South Dakota State. MTSU is 4th-worst (60.7%) foul shooting team in country. Michigan State got to Sweet 16 last four years, covering first round game all four times; Spartans started season with 82-55 win over FAU of C-USA- they're making 38.9% of 3's, #19 in country. Big 14 teams are 5-1 vs C-USA this year, 3-2 vs spread as faves. Since 2008, #2-seeds who are favored by 16+ points are 6-12 against the spread in this round.

Iowa lost six of its last eight games after 19-4 start; seven of those eight tilts were decided by 8 or less points. Hawkeyes lost to Dayton of A-14 on neutral floor in November. Iowa is experienced, starting junior and four seniors- they made 38.2% on arc (#32), just 33.1% in last six games. Temple is in NCAAs for first time in three years; Owls are 2-4 in last six first round games. Last eight years, underdogs are 10-7-1 vs spread in 7-10 first round games; since 2010, Big 14 teams are 28-10 in this round- they're 3-4 vs A-14 teams, 2-2 vs spread when favored. AAC teams are 4-2 in this round the last two tournaments.

Cal-Bakersfield is in D-I March Madness for first time; they won three D-II national titles. Coach Barnes was last in tournament with Ole Miss in 2002, losing to UCLA by 22 in first round. Roadrunners lost by 16-35 vs top 100 teams (Arizona State and St Mary's); they've got #10 eFG% defense in country. Oklahoma lost in first round two of last three years (0-3 vs spreas); last time they covered in first round was 2009. Sooners are just 6-5 in last 11 games after 19-2 start; Big X is such a hard league- they are 8-0 vs teams outside top 90. WAC teams are 3-10 vs spread in this round, 0-5 the last five years. Since '07, #2-seeds who are favored by 16 or less points in the first round are 12-4 against the spread.

Maryland is 3-5 in last eight games after starting season 22-3; TV pundits are openly questioning team chemistry. Maryland took 93 3's last four games, more than when they were playing well. South Dakota State won six in row, 12 of last 14 games; they won 84-70 at Big 14's Minnesota Dec 8. Since '03, Terps are 6-0 in first round games; they beat Valpo by 3 LY, in first NCAA with Turgeon as coach. Jackrabbits will start three seniors, always a help. Since '03, Summit League teams are 1-12 in NCAAs, 2-9-2 vs spread; North Dakota State got the only win, two years ago in 5-12 game. Big 14 teams are only 3-3 vs Summit League this year; 2-3 against spread as a favorite.

Night Games

Pitt coach Dixon is rumored to be leaving Pitt for either TCU or UNLV; Panthers are 4-7 in last 11 games overall, 7-1 in last 8 first round games. Wisconsin coach Gard got interim label lifted, is now the guy; Badgers are 8-1 in last nine first round games- they lost last two games after 11-1 run, slight red flag. Big 14 teams are 10-8 vs ACC teams this year; Pitt lost 70-56 at home to Purdue Dec 1, its only loss in 13 non-conference games; Wisconsin won in OT at Syracuse in its ACC game. Badgers don't defend 3-ball well, but Pitt is 16-64 on arc in last four games. The last eight years, underdogs are 10-7-1 vs spread in 7-10 first round games.

SF Austin coach Underwood worked for Bob Huggins at Kansas State; Lumberjacks are 88-13 in Underwood era, 59-1 in Southland play. SFA upset VCU in '14 first round, lost to Utah by 7 LY- they force turnovers 25.9% of time. West Virginia 25.5%- they lead the country in that stat. Mountaineers won six of last seven games, can struggle on offense, but they've played schedule #5, SFA #317. 'jacks are #46 experience team, WV #170. Southland teams are 2-10 in first round games, 5-6-1 vs spread, 1-3 in last four non-play-in games. SFA opened season with 97-55 loss at Baylor; they got beat by 7 at Arizona State on other top 100 game.

Horizon teams are 0-4 in NCAA games since Butler bolted for greener pa$ture$ (1-3 vs spread). Green Bay coach Darner won D-II national title LY at Florida Southern; they've won eight of their last nine games, winning four days in row to win Horizon title. Texas A&M won eight of last nine games, losing in OT to Kentucky at SEC tourney; Aggies forced turnovers 20.7% of time in SEC games. Green Bay plays #6 tempo, has protected ball well (#27)- their offensive posessions are shortest in the country. SEC teams won both their games with Horizon teams this year, but didn't cover either one. Underdogs are 8-4 against the spread in 3-14 games last three years.

Oregon won its last eight games, 14 of last 16 to grab its #1 seed; Ducks won first round games last three years by 13-19-6 points. Last three years, underdogs are 8-4 vs spread in 1-16 games- the #1 seed in West is 10-4 vs spread last 14 years, 0-3 the last three. Holy Cross won its last five games after being 10-19 to that point; Crusaders run Princeton offense- they've made 37.8% on arc last five games, are just 32.8% for season. HC lost by 18-33 points in its two top 10 games this year (URI/Kansas). Patriot League clubs are 0-3 in this round last three years, losing by 12-40-41 points.

Xavier is in NCAAs for 10th time in 11 years; they're 6-2 in last 8 first round games- this is 1st time they've been higher than 6-seed under Mack. Xavier is 12-0 out of conference. Weber State is in NCAAs for just second time in last nine years; they lost 68-59 to Arizona in '14. Big Sky teams are 0-9 in NCAA last nine years (2-7 vs spread). Wildcats are 1-2 vs top 100 teams, splitting pair with South Dakota State. Since '07, #2-seeds who are favored by 16 or less points in the first round are 12-4 against the spread. Last two years, double digit first round favorites are 9-16 vs spread.

Notre Dame is in NCAAs for 6th time in seven years; they're 2-3 last five first round games, 3-4 in last seven games overall. Irish don't have much depth- PG Jackson played 33:00+ in 11 of last 12 games, 40:00+ in six of 12. Michigan used three starters 35:00+ in win over Tulsa Wednesday, a brickfest where teams were combined 9-40 on arc. Wolverines are 5-11 vs top 40 teams, beating Indiana/Notre Dame in last week, with loss to Purdue in between. Last four years, favorites are 11-4-1 vs spread in 6-11 games. ACC teams are 8-10 vs Big 14 teams this season, 5-5-1 vs spread when favored.

Northern Iowa won 12 of last 13 games, beat North Carolina very early in season, but somehow went 5-10 in skid during middle of year- they beat Iowa State of Big X 81-79 on neutral floor. Panthers won game in tourney LY after missing four years in row before that; UNI is #35 team in experience; they protect ball well, shoot 3's well. Texas is 4-5 in last nine games; they played hardest schedule in country. Longhorns might get big man Ridley back here; they play #301 pace, un-Smart-like, after he became famous with pressing style at VCU. Last four years, faves are 11-4-1 vs spread in 6-11 games. Big X.MVC slit four games this season with underdog covering all four games.

Cincinnati split last six games, losing last game in 4OTs to UConn is there a hangover from that? St Joe's scored 85 ppg in winning A-14 title; they're in NCAAs for just second time in eight years- they lost in OT to UConn in first round in 2014. Hawks protect the ball well, aren't deep, don't foul lot (#6 in not fouling). Cincinnati is 3-2 in first round games last five years; last four were decided by 6 or less points. Winner of this game has legit shot to knock off #1 Oregon Sunday. AAC/A-14 split eight games this season; Cincy beat GW/VCU, St Joe's beat Temple in OT. Since '03, dogs are 31-21 against the spread in 8-9 first round games.

NIT

Valparaiso is 17-3 in its last 20 games; winning last three home games by 4-11-16 games. Crusaders used three starters 31:00+ in Tuesday's 84-73 win over Texas Southern. Valpo has #8 eFG% defense in US. Florida St used only two guys more than 28:00 in 84-74 win over Davidson in its first NIT game; Seminoles are 11-2 outside the ACC, losing to Hofstra by 5, Iowa by 3 in OT.

CIT

Grand Canyon won its last four home games since 59-57 loss to Seattle Jan 30; Antelopes held on Monday for 78-74 win over South Carolina State in its first CIT game- they used three starters 30:00+, made 16-34 on line in game they led by 12 at half. Jackson State made 14-31 on arc in 81-77 OT win at Sam Houston Monday- Tigers blew 21-point lead in game where they used three guys 40:00+.

Armadillosports.com

 
Posted : March 16, 2016 3:36 pm
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Thursday - Session 1
By David Schwab
VegasInsider.com

No. 13 UNC Wilmington Seahawks vs. No. 4 Duke Blue Devils

Opening Odds: Duke -10½, 156½

Betting Matchup

The Seahawks punched their ticket to the Big Dance with a successful run through the CAA Tournament. They have won five of their last six games straight-up, but their record falls to just 2-3-1 against the spread during this same run. Junior guard Chris Flemmings has led an offensive attack that is ranked 39th in the nation in scoring (79.2 points) with an average of 16.1 points per game.

Duke made an earlier than expected exit from the ACC Tournament with an 84-79 loss to Notre Dame as a two-point favorite. The Blue Devils have now failed to cover in their last five games while going 2-3 SU. The total has stayed UNDER in 10 of their last 13 games. Duke is the 17th-highest scoring team in the country with 81.5 PPG led by sophomore guard Grayson Allen (21.6 points) and freshman guard Brandon Ingram (16.8 points).

Betting Trends

The Seahawks are 2-0-2 ATS in four previous appearances in the NCAA Tournament and the total has gone OVER in seven of their last eight neutral-site games.

The Blue Devils are a perfect 6-0 ATS in their last six games in this tournament and the total has gone OVER in their last four games at a neutral site.

No. 9 Butler Bulldogs vs. No. 8 Texas Tech Red Raiders

Opening Odds: Butler -4, 147½

Betting Matchup

The Bulldogs posted a 12-9-1 record ATS as favorites this season and their 74-60 loss to Providence in the Big East Tournament as 3½-point favorites was just the second time they failed to cover in their last 10 games. The total went OVER in seven of those contests. Butler comes into this tournament averaging 80.6 PPG and shooting 46.6 percent from the field behind four different players scoring in double figures.

Texas Tech finished seventh in a very competitive Big 12 conference this season with a SU record of 9-9 and it was 19-12 overall. The Red Raiders dropped three of their last four games SU including a bad 67-62 loss to TCU as 7½-point favorites in the conference tournament. Their offense has sputtered during this recent slide with an average of just 67 points over the four games.

Betting Trends

The Bulldogs are 4-1 ATS in their last five games against a Big 12 opponent and the total has gone OVER in seven of their last 11 nonconference games.

The Red Raiders have failed to cover in 13 of their last 16 games played at a neutral site and the total has stayed UNDER in four of their last five NCAA Tournament games.

These two last met in 2007 with Butler winning 81-71 as a five-point road favorite. The total went OVER the 123.5-point closing line.

No. 9 Connecticut Huskies vs. No. 8 Colorado Buffalos

Opening Odds: Connecticut -3, 132½

Betting Matchup

The Huskies are once again hitting their stride at the right time of the year. A recent run to the AAC Tournament title extended their current winning streak to four games (SU and ATS) and the total has gone OVER in five of their last seven contests. Four of Connecticut’s five starters scored in double figures in a 72-58 romp over Memphis in the AAC title game and it held the Tigers to shooting just 37.5 percent from the floor.

Colorado bowed-out of the Pac-12 Tournament with an 82-78 loss to Arizona, but it was able to cover as a 7½-point underdog. The Buffaloes have now covered ATS in their last five games and they went 8-5 ATS this season when closing as underdogs. Senior forward Josh Scott is the team’s leading scorer with 16.1 PPG while shooting 53.2 percent from the field. He is also pulling down an average of 8.7 rebounds a game.

Betting Trends

The Huskies have covered ATS in 15 of their last 18 games in this tournament and the total has gone OVER in four of their last six neutral-site games.

The Buffaloes are 1-4 ATS in their last five NCAA Tournament games and the total has gone OVER in five of their last seven games outside their conference.

No. 13 Iona Gaels vs. No. 4 Iowa State Cyclones

Opening Odds: Iowa State -8, 166

Betting Matchup

Iona is getting quite a bit of play as an upset special in this matchup after stringing together eight-straight wins. This run includes a huge 79-76 victory over Monmouth in the MEAC Tournament Finals in a game that closed as a PICK. The Gaels have been kind to bettors with a 7-1 record ATS during this run and four of five starters scored at least 15 points in that title game.

The Cyclones slid to 3-4 SU in their last seven games with a tough 79-76 loss to Oklahoma as four-point underdogs in their only Big 12 Tournament game. They also covered as 11-point road underdogs in a season-ending 85-78 loss to Kansas. Iowa State has been one of the more prolific scoring teams in the nation this season with 81.8 PPG, but its defense is well down the list in points allowed (75.0).

Betting Trends

The Gaels have gone 4-0 ATS in their last four games against a team with a SU winning record and the total has stayed UNDER in their last four games at a neutral site.

The Cyclones are 4-1 ATS in their last five games following a SU loss and the total has stayed UNDER in nine of their last 11 neutral-site games.

These two met once before in 2005 with Iona cruising to an 89-72 victory as a 13½-point road underdog. The total went OVER a total line of 142.

 
Posted : March 16, 2016 3:40 pm
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Thursday - Session 2
By Kevin Rogers
VegasInsider.com

#12 Yale vs. #5 Baylor (-5½, 137)

One of four Big 12 teams that was bounced early in last season’s tournament tries to redeem itself as Baylor (22-11 SU, 12-14-1 ATS) has lost three of four down the stretch. Rewinding to last March, the Bears were tripped up as a third-seed against upstart Georgia State in the first round, 57-56 as 9 ½-point favorites. Baylor covered six of its final eight games, including both contests in the Big 12 tournaments in a win against Texas and a four-point loss to Kansas. After getting blown out in Lawrence in the Big 12 opener at Kansas back in January, Scott Drew’s team won seven of its last 10 contests played away from Waco, including a 3-0-1 ATS record in the favorite role.

Yale (22-6 SU, 11-6-2 ATS) is making its first NCAA tournament appearance since 1962, while winning only its third Ivy League title in the last 43 years. The Bulldogs are playing less than two hours away from campus in their tournament opener, coming off a fantastic 13-1 record in Ivy play with the only loss coming to Princeton in mid-February. Yale put together a 1-3-1 ATS mark as an underdog this season, which included a cover as 13-point ‘dogs in a 71-69 setback at SMU in November.

The Bulldogs will try to match the tournament success of rival Harvard, who won their opening game in two of the last three seasons, while falling by two points to North Carolina last season. Three of four contests involving 5 and 12 seeds last March were decided by seven points or less, while three 12 seeds picked up outright victories in the opening round during the 2014 tournament.

#16 Hampton vs. #1 Virginia (-23½, 133)

These two Old Dominion squads haven’t met since 2013 as the tournament committee paired these Virginia schools together in the opening round. Virginia (26-7 SU, 17-14 ATS) received a top seed in spite of not winning the ACC regular season or tournament championship, as the Cavaliers won 13 of its final 16 games of the season. UVA covered just three of its last nine contests as a double-digit favorite since late December, while failing to cash in each of its past two opportunities as double-digit chalk in the tournament the past two seasons against Coastal Carolina (-19 ½ in 2014) and Belmont (-17 in 2015).

Hampton (21-10 SU, 3-2 ATS) captured the Mid-Eastern Athletic title after cruising past South Carolina State in the conference championship, 81-69 as three-point favorites. The Pirates are led by the backcourt duo of seniors Reggie Johnson (18.3 ppg) and Quinton Chievous (17.0 ppg), while qualifying for the tournament for the second straight season. Hampton beat Manhattan in the First Four round last season before bowing out to top-seeded Kentucky, 79-56, but the Pirates cashed as 34-point ‘dogs.

The Pirates were out-manned in both matchups with tournament teams this season, losing to Colorado by 42 points and SMU (ineligible for postseason, but would have gone to tourney) by 33 points. Virginia is a top seed for the second time in three seasons, reaching the Sweet 16 in 2014, while falling in the round of 32 to Michigan State last season. The Cavaliers owned one of the stingiest defenses in the country, while posting an 11-2 mark to the ‘under’ in its last 13 games of the season.

#16 Austin Peay vs. #1 Kansas (-26, 152)

The biggest favorite in the opening round shouldn’t shock anyone, as top overall seed Kansas (30-4 SU, 21-11 ATS) is laying nearly four touchdowns against Ohio Valley champion Austin Peay. The Jayhawks grabbed both the regular season and tournament championship in the Big 12 after knocking off West Virginia, 81-71 to pick up its 14th straight victory. Bill Self’s club put together a solid 10-5 ATS record when laying at least 10 points this season, while easily covering in two opportunities back in November as 29-point favorites in routs of Northern Colorado and Chaminade.

The Governors (18-17 SU, 13-15-1 ATS) haven’t reached the Big Dance since 2008, when they lost to another Big 12 school, Texas by 20 points. Austin Peay finished fourth in the Ohio Valley West with a 7-9 conference record, while needing four wins in four days to capture the automatic berth and sneak above the .500 mark. In all four victories, the Governors covered as an underdog, while compiling a solid 6-1 ATS record in its past seven opportunities when receiving points. Peay has scored plenty of points by putting together a 13-1-1 mark to the ‘over’ the last 15 games, but the Governors allowed a season-high 102 points at Indiana in mid-November.

Kansas will look for its first Sweet 16 appearance since 2013, when the Jayhawks lost to Michigan in overtime, 87-85. KU has won nine consecutive tournament openers since 2007, but won only one of those games by more than 25 points, while posting a 2-6 ATS record in its past eight tournament contests as a double-digit favorite since 2009.

#12 Arkansas-Little Rock vs. #5 Purdue (-9, 128½)

Purdue (26-8 SU, 18-11 ATS) hasn’t made the Sweet 16 since 2010, as the Boilermakers travel to the high altitude of Denver for their tournament opener. Matt Painter’s squad finished one win shy of capturing the Big 10 tournament championship after losing to Michigan State on Sunday, 66-62 as five-point underdogs. The Boilermakers never lost consecutive games this season, while the only bad defeat on their schedule came at Illinois as nine-point favorites in January. Purdue didn’t face many non-conference tournament teams, winning at Pittsburgh by 13 points in the Big 10/ACC Challenge, while falling to Butler in December by six.

The champions of the Sun Belt seek their 30th win of the season as Arkansas-Little Rock (29-4 SU, 19-10 ATS) is appearing in its first NCAA tournament since 2011. In that season, the Trojans lost in the First Four to UNC-Asheville in overtime, as their previous “real” tournament contest came in 1990, losing to eventual champion UNLV, 102-72. UALR pulled off some impressive victories in non-conference action by beating San Diego State and Tulsa as double-digit road underdogs, while closing the season by winning 14 of its final 16 games.

The Trojans are looking to become the second straight Sun Belt champion to advance to the round of 32 after Georgia State upset Baylor last March. Purdue posted a 15-9 ATS record in the favorite role this season, while covering four straight in the favorite role. The Boilermakers haven’t won an NCAA tournament game since 2012, knocking off St. Mary’s as a short underdog in the opening round.

 
Posted : March 16, 2016 9:59 pm
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Thursday - Session 3
By Tony Mejia
VegasInsider.com

#14 Buffalo vs #3 Miami (-14.5, 148)

The Hurricanes struggled with Virginia Tech down the stretch, losing in Blacksburg and barely surviving the ACC Tournament’s first round. They did hang in there with elite Virginia, didn’t at North Carolina and are, all in all, 9-3 over their last 12. They’re 7-5 ATS in that span, but have failed to cover in each of their last three outings. They’ve got impressive freshman reserve Ja’Quan Newton back from a three-game suspension for a violation of team rules that forced him to miss the final regular-season contests, which gives them a pair of excellent point guards alongside veteran starter Angel Rodriguez. Miami is 9-1 as a double-digit favorite, going 7-2-1 in covering the number.

Bulls point guard Lamonte Bearden has something in common with Newton, having been suspended in February for three games, all of which resulted in losses. The sophomore was remorseful and instantly got results, leading the team to wins in six of eight, averaging 12.5 points and 6.0 assists upon his return. The Bulls have scored 87 or more points in six of those games, winning five. Junior wing Blake Hamilton has been the team’s best player since Bearden returned, picking up four double-doubles. Over the last six, he’s averaged 17.8 points and 10.1 rebounds. He’s current pro Jordan Hamilton’s cousin. The Bulls have played fellow NCAA participants Duke, Iowa State, Saint Joseph’s and VCU, losing all four and going 1-2-1 ATS. The ‘over’ has prevailed in six of the last eight Buffalo games.

#12 Chattanooga at #5 Indiana (-12, 147)

The Mocs were one of the few top-seeds to actually win their conference tournaments, pulling off a double in addition to the regular-season title. Chattanooga’s 29 wins rank second in the country, but it did struggle some down the stretch, barely winning its regular-season finale at lowly VMI and then having trouble with No. 8 seed Samford in the SoCon Tournament. They beat No. 2 ETSU for a third time to get back to the NCAA Tournament for the first time since 2009, getting there under first-year head coach Matt McCall, who replaced Wil Wade went he left for VCU to replace mentor Shaka Smart. McCall is a Billy Donovan disciple. The Mocs overcame losing leading scorer Casey Jones, a former All-SoCon standout, just eight games in with an ankle injury. Seven players averaged more than 7.3 points per game or more. They’re among the best teams in the country in turnover percentage. Chattanooga owns wins over Dayton, Georgia and Illinois. The over has prevailed in five of the last seven Mocs games.

The Hoosiers also have experience in overcoming the loss of a key player, as No. 2 scorer James Blackmon was lost to a knee injury just before Big Ten play began. He was shooting 46 percent from 3-point range and 85 percent from the free-throw line. PG Yogi Ferrell put Indiana on his back and led it to an unexpected conference title, potentially landing Tom Crean into the national Coach of the Year mix. Indiana won its final five regular-season games, but lost in the conference tournament quarterfinals on a last-second 3-pointer from Michigan. Versatile forwards Troy Williams and Max Biefeldt join big freshman Thomas Bryant to form a productive frontcourt, while senior transfer Nick Zeisloft and sophomore Robert Johnson have helped make up for Blackmon’s loss. Indiana started the season 5-3, losing to underachievers Wake Forest and UNLV before suffering a 20-point loss at Duke. The Hoosiers than won their next 10 games. The ‘under’ has prevailed in three of the last four IU games.

#16 Florida Gulf Coast at #1 North Carolina (-22, 148)

The Eagles have shocked college basketball this time of year this decade once already, making them an interesting candidate to become the first to ever beat a No. 1. FGCU ran in fourth place in the Atlantic Sun this season, finishing just 8-6. They’ve turned it up with wins in eight of the last 10, the highlight of which was an 89-56 rout of A-Sun regular season champ North Florida in its house in the conference semis. They were impressive against Fairleigh Dickinson, crushing the Knights in both halves in recording a 96-65 win. Marc Eddy Norelia made 10-of-11 shots and grabbed 10 rebounds in imposing his will, so he’ll be counted on to lead the charge against the Tar Heels. He leads FGCU in scoring (17.3) and rebounding (9.2). The Eagles have won six of eight games that have been on the board this season, going 4-3-1 ATS. Their last two games have gone ‘over’ the posted total.

Brice Johnson will undoubtedly see some Norelia duty, coming off a tremendous season for the Tar Heels, averaging team-highs with 16.6 points, 10.6 rebounds and shooting over 61 percent. Together with Kennedy Meeks, he gives North Carolina an edge in quality size around the basket that few in this tournament can rely on. Guards Joel Berry and Marcus Paige have been at their best in wins in seven of their last eight, going 6-2 ATS in those games. The under has come through in 13 of the last 17 UNC games, and their defense really locked in, surrendering 47 points to Notre Dame in the ACC semis and 57 against Virginia in the finals. The Tar Heels have won at least one game in every NCAA Tournament they’ve appeared in since Roy Williams took over in 2004 (relegated to NIT in ’10). They’ve won two national championships and reached another Final Four. Williams is 11-0 in First Round games, but have only won by two points in the last two seasons (Providence, Harvard).

#14 Fresno State vs. #3 Utah (-9, 139)

The Utes survived the semifinals of the Pac-12 tournament in dramatic fashion, getting a Tyus Edney-like layup from SG Lorenzo Bonam to tie Cal at the buzzer, ultimately winning in OT on a great performance from potential All-America center Jakob Poeltl. Utah had nothing left the next day and suffered a 31-point loss to Oregon, snapping a nine-game winning streak. Poeltl, a potential NBA lottery pick, is averaging 17.6 points and 9.0 rebounds, shooting nearly 66 percent from the field. His footwork is sublime. Five Utes average 9.6 points per game or more, but this team thrives when the defense is locked in. Although Utah’s last three games have gone ‘over’, the ‘under’ had come in during five of the previous six and is a staple for Larry Krystkowiak, who has also coached the Bucks in the NBA. Utah owns wins over Duke and Texas Tech in non-conference play, but lost to Texas Tech and Miami. They defeated San Diego State, the regular-season champion of the Mountain West, on Nov. 16.

Fresno State defeated the Aztecs 68-63 in its conference championship game and take a nine-game winning streak into the NCAAs. The Bulldogs have covered the spread in six straight and have overcome the absence of Torren Jones, the second-leading scorer and top rebounder, since February. Marvelle Harris leads the Bulldogs in scoring (20.6) and assists (4.4) and takes a lot of 3-pointers. Guard Cezar Guerrero is also a strong perimeter shooter and streaky scorer. The over has come through in five of the last six games for Fresno. Forward Karachi Edo, a tremendous athlete, serves as this team’s top post defender. He had eight blocks in the Mountain West Tournament. Fresno State is 0-2 against Pac-12 competition, losing at Oregon and Arizona but going 1-1 ATS.

 
Posted : March 17, 2016 10:52 am
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Thursday - Session 4
By Brian Edwards
VegasInsider.com

#11 Wichita State vs. #6 Arizona (-1½, 136½)

The Westgate SuperBook opened Arizona (25-8 straight up, 16-17 against the spread) as a one-point favorite on Wednesday morning. The line moved to pick 'em briefly before settling at 1.5 in favor of the Wildcats by early Wednesday afternoon. The total opened at 136.5 and had yet to move. The Shockers are +105 on the money line (risk $100 to win $105).

Sean Miller's team finished third in the Pac-12 regular-season standings with a 12-6 record in conference play.

Arizona has struggled badly as a single-digit favorite this year, limping to a 4-9 spread record in 13 such spots.

Arizona is mired in a 2-7 ATS slump in its last nine games. The Wildcats saw their three-game winning streak snapped in a 95-89 overtime loss to Oregon in the Pac-12 Tournament semifinals this past Friday night in Las Vegas. UA miraculously forced the extra session by burying a 3-pointer to cut the Ducks' deficit to one with 0.8 seconds remaining. Then Mark Tollefsen stole the inbounds pass and was inexplicably fouled with 0.4 left and had a chance to win the game by going to the free-throw line for two shots. Tollefsen missed the first attempt, however, but knocked down the second to force OT. UA's Gabe York scored a team-best 21 points in the losing effort, one that saw it rally from a 15-point halftime deficit. Allonzo Trier added 16 points before fouling out, while Kaleb Tarczewski finished with 11 points, 12 rebounds and two blocked shots.

Arizona has played 13 games against teams in the NCAA field, going 6-7 SU and 3-10 ATS in those contests.

Arizona's is led by Ryan Anderson, a senior who transferred to UA from Boston College. Anderson is averaging 15.5 points and 10.1 rebounds per game while drilling 54.7 percent of his shots from the field. York is scoring at a 15.2 PPG clip while making 42.5 percent of his launches from 3-point land. Trier is averaging 15.0 PPG.

Miller has the sixth-best winning percentage in the NCAA Tournament among active head coaches in this year's field. His teams at Xavier and UA have gone 17-8 (68.0%), yet he's still looking to get to his first Final Four.

Wichita State (25-8 SU, 19-12 ATS) advanced past Vanderbilt to face sixth-seeded Arizona by winning a 70-50 decision Tuesday night at the First Four in Dayton. The Shockers, who are in the NCAA Tournament for the fifth consecutive year under Gregg Marshall, easily took the cash as 3.5-point favorites by going on an 18-2 run against the Commodores after leading by only two at the under-eight television timeout. Ron Baker and Fred VanVleet, both of whom are seniors and were key cogs in the school's 2013 run to the Final Four, scored 14 points apiece. Baker had nine rebounds, while VanVleet dished out seven assists compared to just one turnover.

Wichita State is 17-7 ATS in its last 24 games. Even better, Marshall's troops have gone 14-5 ATS in their last 19 outings.

WSU has played nine games against teams in the field, going 3-6 both SU and ATS. The Shockers' best win was a 67-50 triumph over Utah as 3.5-point home 'chalk' back on Dec. 12. They lost an 80-76 heartbreaker at Seton Hall in overtime.

VanVleet averages 12.1 points, 5.7 assists, 3.1 rebounds and 1.6 steals per game. He's knocking down 40.8 percent from downtown and 80.9 percent at the charity stripe. Baker averages 14.2 points, 4.9 rebounds, 3.2 assists and 1.5 steals per game. However, Baker has shot at a career-low percentage from 3-point range (35.3%).

The 'over' is 22-11 overall for Arizona, cashing in three straight games and seven of its last nine.

The 'under' is 17-13-1 overall for the Shockers, cashing in three straight and going 9-2-1 in their last 12 outings.

Marshall owns a 9-11 record (45.0%) in the NCAA Tournament, but let's remember that he took seven Winthrop teams to the Tournament in nine years. Those squads went 1-7, beating Notre Dame in an opening-round game in his final year at the school. That obviously leaves him with an outstanding 8-4 record (66.7%) while at Wichita State with one Final Four appearance.

#9 Providence (-2, 149½) vs. #8 USC

The winner of this Pac-12-Big East showdown will get top-seeded North Carolina on Saturday in what will essentially be a road game in terms of crowd noise.

The Westgate opened No. 9 seed Providence as a two-point favorite. Jay Kornegay and Co. initially adjusted the Friars to 2.5 before dropping to 1.5. The number again bounced around from 1.5 to 2.5 on Monday, but it had settled at two by early Wednesday afternoon. The Westgate opened the total at 149.5 and it briefly move to 150 before coming back to the opening number. The Trojans are +115 on the money line (risk $100 to win $115).

Providence (23-10 straight up, 18-14 against the spread) has covered the number in five consecutive games, thought its four-game winning streak was snapped in last Friday's Big East Tournament semifinals. The Friars dropped a 76-68 decision to Villanova, but they nonetheless took the cash as 8.5-point underdogs. One night after dropping 38 points on Butler, Ben Bentil fouled out with 9:40 remaining against the Wildcats. He was held to only three points and committed five turnovers in just 26 minutes of playing time. Nevertheless, PU pulled to within three of 'Nova with 6:59 left thanks to a 15-3 run. Rodney Bullock scored a team-high 18 points and also pulled down seven rebounds. Kyron Cartwright scored 14 points, but star senior PG went 1-of-8 from the field and scored just nine points. Dunn had six assists but also committed three turnovers, but I believe that's a tribute to how well PU is playing by taking Villanova to the wire without its two horses playing effectively.

Providence is 4-6 ATS in 10 games as a single-digit 'chalk.'

Ed Cooley's team has played 12 games against teams in the NCAA field, posting a 5-7 SU record and a 6-6 ATS mark.

Dunn is averaging 16.0 points, 6.4 assists, 5.5 rebounds and 2.5 steals per game. Bentil is one of the nation's most improved players and, like Dunn, he's a future player at the next level. The muscular power forward is averaging 21.2 points and 7.8 rebounds per games.

USC (21-12 SU, 18-14 ATS) really slumped down the stretch, going 3-7 both SU and ATS in its last 10 games. All seven defeats came by margins of seven points or more and four of the losses came by double-digit margins.

USC has lost outright while going 1-5 ATS in its last six games as an underdog. For the season, the Trojans are 4-6 ATS with three outright victories in 10 games as underdogs.

Andy Enfield's squad owns a 5-8 record both SU and ATS in 13 games against teams in the NCAA Tournament field.

USC went 5-10 SU and 6-9 AGS in 15 games either on the road or on a neutral court.

USC's balanced scoring attack is led by sophomore PG Jordan McLaughlin, who averages 13.4 points, 4.7 assists, 3.7 rebounds and 1.5 steals per game. McLaughlin scored 42 points in a pair of games in the Pac-12 Tournament. He shoots at a 42.3 percent clip from 3-point range. Junior center Nikola Jovanovic averages 12.1 points and 7.0 rebounds per game while making 52.3 percent of his shots from the field.

USC trounced UCLA for a third time this year by blasting the Bruins 95-71 as a two-point favorite at the Pac-12 Tournament. Bennie Boatwright was the catalyst with 19 points, nine rebounds and a pair of blocked shots. But in the quarterfinals last Thursday, the Trojans lost an 80-72 decision to Utah as 6.5-point underdogs. McLaughlin had a game-high 24 points in the losing effort, while Julian Jacobs finished with 16 points, eight rebounds, two steals and six assists compared to one turnover.

The 'over' is on a 14-6-1 run for the Trojans, who have seen the 'over' go 18-14-1 overall.

The 'over' hit at a 19-13 overall clip for the Friars, going 6-3 in their last nine games.

#13 Stony Brook vs. #4 Kentucky (-14, 143)

The winner will take on the survivor of Indiana vs. Chattanooga.

The Westgate opened Kentucky (26-8 SU, 18-16 ATS) as a 13.5-point favorite with a total of 144. The number went as high as 14.5 but was resting at 14 as of Wednesday afternoon. As for the total, it was down to 143. The Seawolves were +850 on the money line (risk $100 to win $850).

UK won the SEC Tournament with wins over Alabama (85-59), Georgia (93-80) and Texas A&M (82-77). The Wildcats needed overtime to sneak past the Aggies as four-point favorites. Tyler Ulis played all 45 minutes, producing 30 points, three steals and five assists compared to merely one turnover. Jamal Murray had 17 points, while Alex Poythress, Derek Willis and Isaiah Briscoe scored 10 points apiece. Briscoe finished with six assists, five rebounds and two steals on 5-of-8 shooting from the field.

John Calipari's squad has won 10 of its last 12 games with eight of those victories coming by double-digit margins. UK's only defeats during this span came at Texas A&M and at Vanderbilt. Since the loss at Vandy, UK has won five in a row both SU and ATS. The parlay combination of UK and the 'over' has also hit in five straight.

I believe UK has the best backcourt in the country with sophomore PG Tyler Ulis and freshman sensation Jamal Murray, who is one of the country's best pure shooters. Ulis averages 17.2 points, 7.2 assists, 3.2 rebounds and 1.5 steals per game. He has a remarkable 236/62 assists-to-turnovers ratio this year, 29/5 in the last four games. Murray (20.1 PPG) averages 5.1 RPG and makes 42.1 percent of his launches from long distance.

UK has compiled a 6-1 spread record in its last seven games as a double-digit favorite. The 'Cats are 9-9 ATS in 18 such spots for the entire season.

Since 1987, UK has only lost once in the opening round -- vs. Marquette in 2008.

Calipari owns the second-best winning percentage in the NCAA Tournament among active coaches. He is 47-15 for his career (75.8%) with six trips to the Final Four.

Stony Brook (26-6 SU, 0-5-1 ATS) won the America East Conference Tournament with wins over UMBC (86-76), Hartford (80-64) and Vermont (80-74). The Seawolves trailed the Catamounts 36-27 at intermission, but senior forward Jameel Warney sparked the second-half comeback in a spectacular performance. Warney dominated with 43 points, 10 rebounds and four blocked shots on 18-of-22 shooting from the field. Carson Puriefoy played all 40 minutes, finishing with 23 points, five 3-pointers, four assists, three rebounds and two steals.

Stony Brook played only two teams in the field, losing 79-72 in overtime at Vanderbilt and falling 86-61 at Notre Dame. The Seawolves' best win came at home over Princeton (91-77).

Stony Brook ranks 19th in the nation in scoring defense (63.4 PPG).

Warney averages team-highs in scoring (19.2 PPG), rebounding (10.7 RPG), blocked shots (3.0 BPG) and field-goal percentage (63.6%). In the three AEC Tourney games, Warney averageed 30.3 points and 15.3 boards per contest. Puriefoy (15.1 PPG) has buried a team-best 81 treys.

The 'over' is 4-2 overall for the Seawolves.

The 'over' is 19-14-1 overall for the 'Cats.

#11 Gonzaga vs. #6 Seton Hall (PK, 145½)

This is a 6/11 Midwest Region showdown in Denver, CO., where altitude will play a role. The winner will face the Utah-Fresno St. survivor on Saturday in the Mile High City.

The Westgate opened Gonzaga as a 2.5-point favorite Sunday night. The line moved to two within seven minutes, then down to 1.5 by later that evening. Then on Monday morning, the number moved to one for a few hours before going back up to 1.5. By early Tuesday afternoon Vegas time, the game was a pick 'em, but the Bulldogs were favored by one again Tuesday night. As of Wednesday afternoon, Gonzaga was still favored by one point. The total opened at 143.5 at the Westgate, but the tally was up to 145.5 by Wednesday.

Seton Hall (25-8 SU, 23-9 ATS) is the nation's best ATS team and has won four in a row both SU and ATS. Going back further, Kevin Willard's club has won eight of its last nine games while going 7-2 versus the number. If the line holds and the Pirates close as underdogs, we should note that they own an incredible 12-2 spread record with 10 outright victories as 'dogs.

Seton Hall had a magical weekend at Madison Square Garden in New York City, winning the Big East Tournament for the first time since 1993 when P.J. Carlesimo roamed the sidelines for the school. Willard's team raced out to an 11-point halftime lead and held off Villanova for a 69-67 win as a six-point underdog, hooking up money-line backers with a +210 return (risk $100 to win $210). Isaiah Whitehead was named the tourney's Most Outstanding Player after dropping 26 points on the Wildcats. The sophomore PG has come a long way since last year when he played selfishly and prompted major issues in terms of team chemistry. Trailing by two, Whitehead penetrated to the rim for a layup and a foul with 18 ticks left. His free throw put the Pirates up 68-67 and a defensive stop and subsequent free throw sealed the deal.

Whitehead averages team-highs in scoring (18.4 PPG), assists (5.0 APG) and blocked shots (1.5 BPG). Three other sophomores score in double figures, including Khadeen Carrington (14.3 PPG), Desi Rodriguez (12.5 PPG, 5.2 RPG) and Angel Delgado (10.0 PPG, 9.4 RPG).

Seton Hall is in the Tournament for the first time since 2006. Willard has never been dancing either in nine years as a head coach. He was at Iona for three seasons before taking the job in New Jersey. Willard's only career postseason appearance came in his second year at Seton Hall (2011-2012) when it went to the NIT and won one game.

Seton Hall has played 11 games against teams in the field, compiling a 6-5 SU record and a 9-2 ATS mark. The Pirates won six of nine games against teams in the RPI Top 50, with their only defeats coming to Villanova and Xavier, who No. 4 and No. 7, respectively. They have two wins over both Providence and Xavier and also knocked off Wichita State. In addition, they beat Ole Miss and Georgia in non-conference play.

Gonzaga (26-7 SU, 15-15 ATS) probably would've missed the NCAA Tournament for the first time in Mark Few's tenure had it not won the WCC Tournament for the league's automatic berth. However, the Bulldogs took care of business at The Orleans in Las Vegas by beating BYU and Saint Mary's in back-to-back nights.

Gonzaga has won five in a row both SU and ATS, including the 85-75 win over the Gaels as a 2.5-point favorite on March 8 in Sin City. Eric McClellan scored a team-best 20 points thanks to 9-of-9 shooting at the free-throw line. Kyle Wiltjer scored 17 points, while Josh Perkins finished with 16 points and five assists. Domantas Sabonis had 15 points and eight rebounds on 6-of-8 shooting from the field.

Gonzaga always plays a brutal non-conference schedule, but it simply worked out that its foes in non-con play didn't produce this year. Tennessee, UCLA, Washington and Washington State had down years, while SMU wasn't eligible for the Tournament. Therefore, the Bulldogs played only three games against squad in the field, going 1-2 SU and 0-2-1 ATS. They beat UConn 73-70 on a neutral court as three-point 'chalk,' while losing 68-63 at home to Arizona and 62-61 vs. Texas A&M on a neutral floor.

Wiltjer averages 20.7 points and 6.5 rebounds per game. The senior who is in his second year with the 'Zags after transferring from Kentucky, shoots 49.0 percent from the field, 42.4 percent from downtown and 86.7 percent at the free-throw line. Sabonis (17.4 PPG, 11.6 RPG) averages a double-double and converts 61.7 percent of his attempts from the field.

The 'under' is 18-14 overall for the Pirates, but they have seen the 'over' hit at a 5-1 clip in their last six outings.

The 'over' is 16-15 overall for the Bulldogs after cashing in each of their last three games.

 
Posted : March 17, 2016 10:55 am
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Thursday's Top Action
By Sportsbook,ag

BUTLER BULLDOGS (21-10) at TEXAS TECH RED RAIDERS (19-12)

Sportsbook.ag Line: Butler -4, Total: 147.5

No. 8 and 9 seeds in the Midwest Region, Texas Tech and Butler face off with the Red Raiders making their first NCAA tournament appearance since 2007.

Texas Tech coach Tubby Smith brings his Red Raiders (15-13 ATS) into the NCAA Tournament in his fourth season in Lubbock, and for the first time since 2007. Smith joins Lon Kruger (Oklahoma) as the only coaches to take five programs to the NCAA Tournament. Smith’s resume in the postseason (9 times to the Sweet Sixteen or better, one national championship) dwarfs that of his coaching counterpart, Butler’s Chris Holtmann, although Holtmann has now made the NCAA Tournament in both of his seasons on the bench in Hinkle Fieldhouse.

Conversely, Butler’s NCAA Tournament experience, with senior guards Kellen Dunham (16.3 PPG, 42.3% 3PT) and Roosevelt Jones (14 PPG, 6.6 RPG, 4.7 APG), is in complete contrast with Texas Tech’s green roster. The Red Raiders, picked to finish last in the preseason Big 12 polls, finished out their season 1-3 SU (2-4 ATS) dropping their opening round Big 12 Tournament game to TCU (67-62, TT -7.5).

While Texas Tech only went 2-7 SU (3-6 ATS) in January, the Red Raiders turned their season around with a huge February (6-2 SU; 5-3 ATS) that included wins over Iowa State, Oklahoma and at Baylor. The Red Raiders went 2-1 SU over NCAA Tournament teams in non-conference play. Texas Tech would go 6-9 SU (8-7 ATS) overall against NCAA Tournament teams this season. The Red Raiders are 2-2 SU (1-3 ATS) on neutral courts, including a loss to Utah (73-63, TT +8.5) in the second game of Texas Tech’s season.

Texas Tech struggles as an underdog (5-11 SU, 7-9 ATS) and worse, the Red Raiders are 3-8 SU, 5-6 ATS after a loss. Butler closed their season 7-3 SU (8-2 ATS) since the start of February after – similarly to Texas Tech – looking like they’d miss out on the NCAA Tournament due to a 3-5 SU (1-5-2 ATS) January.

Butler was a loser in their first Big East Tournament game this season, last Thursday to Providence (74-60, Butler -3.5). The loss to the Friars was the third time Butler had lost to Providence this season. The Bulldogs are 3-2 SU (2-3 ATS), including wins over Temple and Purdue and a loss to Miami (FL), amongst matchups with NCAA Tournament teams in those five games. Overall against NCAA Tournament teams, Butler is 5-8 SU (5-7-1 ATS). The Bulldogs are 18-5 SU (12-10-1 ATS) as favorites this season. Historically, Butler has been close to a lock in first-round NCAA Tournament games (8-1 since 2001).

Texas Tech, while seeded higher, comes in as a four-point underdog to Butler, and the Red Raider faithful have a right to be worried with the dreadful loss to Big 12 bottom-feeder TCU still in recent memory. Texas Tech likes to grind away their games (69.2 possessions per game, 271st NCAA) and uses the free throw line to their advantage on offense (17.6 FTM, 74.6% FT). It’s not surprising that the Red Raiders only hit 7 free throws in the loss to TCU. Butler can be foul prone and they’ve got a short bench, so look for a deep Texas Tech squad to use this to their advantage. (Tech draws a foul on 27% of offensive plays, 11th NCAA.)

Texas Tech’s defense is wholly mediocre and aided by their slow pace of play, however coach Smith does get his bunch to clamp down in the second half of games (35.7 PPG in 2H, 66th NCAA). While the Red Raiders excel at preventing assisted baskets (11.2 APG), they struggle versus teams who shoot well from deep (35.2% 3PT, 7.6 3PM) – as Butler does.

Texas Tech shows off its depth with four double-figure scorers and six players averaging 8.7 PPG or better. No Red Raider averages more than G Toddrick Gotcher’s 11.1 PPG. Fellow senior, G DeVaugntah Williams is next up with 10.6 PPG. Forwards Aaron Ross and Zach Smith round out the double-figure scorers with 10.3 PPG and 10.1 PPG, respectively, while Smith leads the team in rebounds and blocks with 7.4 RPG and 1.8 BPG.

Ross is a highly skilled offensive player who tends to run into foul trouble that limits his effectiveness. Smith is arguably the team’s most indispensable player (leads team with 33 MPG).

Bruising F Norense Odiase (8.8 PPG, 4.3 RPG in 18.8 MPG) returned from a lengthy injury to provide 10 points versus TCU in his second game back. F Justin Gray (8.7 PPG) may be the most talented player on the team, but is still an inconsistent sophomore. He did finish strong with 13 points in the loss to TCU.

Butler doesn’t offer the depth of Texas Tech, but coach Holtmann’s squad can beat you in a number of ways on offense. Butler’s reputation as a grind-it-out squad on offense belies this team’s skill this season, as the Bulldogs average 80.6 PPG (18th NCAA) and can beat you from three (38.7% 3PT) or by drawing contact in the paint (17.5 FTM, 73.1% FT).

This game could get ugly to watch if both teams are capitalizing on their ability to pad their offense with points at the stripe, as they have all season. That said, because Butler plays at a faster pace than Texas Tech, and because they’re careful with the ball (10.3 TO, 17th NCAA), Butler ends up getting lots of good looks which translate into 28 FGM per game (29th NCAA).

The Bulldogs are a very average defensive team (71.2 PPG, 150th NCAA). One cause for concern is the Bulldogs’ lack of athleticism around the rim, as they rely on body-fouls a ton to get them to the line. Texas Tech is a solid shot-blocking team (4.2 BPG, 72nd NCAA) and if Butler isn’t getting calls in the lane, Jones, Dunham, F Kelan Martin (16.1 PPG) and F Andrew Chrabascz (10.1) just aren’t above-the-rim finishers for the Bulldogs (as evidenced by their 4.5 shots blocked per game, 333rd NCAA). Long, athletic teams like Villanova and Providence gave Butler fits this season (combined 0-5 versus those two squads).

The catalyst for Butler’s offense is the built-like-granite Jones. The fifth-year senior’s game consists of floaters and coast-to-coast jaunts, which draw in the defense so he can kick it out to fellow senior Dunham or emerging sophomore Martin. Dunham endured the worst shooting slump of his career in late December (0-21 3PT) before rebounding to play possibly the best basketball of his career from January onward (47.7% FG, 54% 3PT, 3.0 3PM in his last 18 games).

Since ascending to a consistent 30+ minutes per game and a starting spot, Martin, a matchup nightmare, has put up 18.9 PPG, and 8.1 RPG in his last 15 games. The sophomore who can go inside-out is truly the one Bulldog who can create his own offense, as that also works against him when he puts his head down and tries to go one-on-one.

YALE BULLDOGS (22-6) vs. BAYLOR BEARS (22-11)

Sportsbook.ag Line: Baylor -5.5, Total: 136.5

No. 5 Baylor will be on upset alert when it takes on a No. 12 Yale team that should have plenty of fans in attendance on Thursday.

After a 70-66 loss to No. 1 overall seed Kansas in the Big 12 Tournament semifinals on Friday (KU -7.0), the Baylor Bears (12-14-1 ATS) enter March Madness as a No. 5 seed and will travel over 1,800 miles to Providence, Rhode Island for Thursday’s game.

Their lower-seeded opponents, the Ivy League champion Yale Bulldogs (11-7-1 ATS), need only to take a short bus ride to the game despite being a No. 12 seed. Since the Ivy League does not feature a postseason tournament, Yale punched its ticket to the Big Dance by winning the regular season conference title. It comes into Thursday's matchup hot, having won five straight (3-2 ATS) and 17 of its last 18 (7-4-1). The Bulldogs failed to take down a major-conference foe in limited opportunities this season, going 0-4 in early-season road matchups against SMU, Duke, Illinois and USC. While they kept it close in a couple of those contests, they were only 1-3 ATS in them. They're 14-0 SU in games they entered as favorites (10-3-1 ATS) and 0-5 in those in which they were underdogs (1-4).

Yale is also without senior captain Jack Montague (9.7 PPG, 3.0 APG), who was expelled from the university for alleged sexual misconduct. He's missed the team's last eight games, though, so it's now used to playing without him.

Baylor, for its part, will take the floor having lost four of its last six (4-2 ATS) in a stretch that included games against Oklahoma and West Virginia and, unfortunately for the Bears, two games against Kansas. For the season, the Bears are 7-6 in games away from home (8-4-1 ATS). While they're 10-2 in non-conference games, they're only 1-6 ATS against teams from outside the Big 12. They'll be looking to bounce back this March after falling as a No. 3 seed last year in a devastating loss to No. 14 Georgia State. Both Baylor and Yale saw the total go OVER in exactly 55.6 percent of their games this season. The winner of this matchup will take on the winner of No. 3 Duke-No. 14 UNC-Wilmington.

Baylor finished with an 11-9 record in the loaded Big 12 thanks in large part to a rugged frontcourt that made a habit of pushing around the opposition. F Rico Gathers (11.4 PPG, 9.1 RPG) was third in the conference in rebounds per game, and surely was first in intimidation factor. Need proof of Gathers' toughness? An All-Big 12 First Team selection, the 6-foot-8, 275-pound senior intends to enter the NFL after this season.

He's joined on the interior by sophomore F Jonathan Motley (11.0 PPG, 5.1 RPG) who shot 61.9% from the field to lead the Big 12. Behind those two, the Bears finished 15th in the nation with a +7.9 rebounding margin. Also in double-figure scoring for Baylor is sophomore G Al Freeman (11.5 PPG, 3.4 RPG), who can hit pretty consistently from deep at 38.9 percent.

But Baylor's real star power comes from senior F Taurean Prince (15.5 PPG, 6.1 RPG, 1.3 SPG). Projected as a first-round pick in the upcoming NBA Draft, Prince went from winning last year's Big 12 Sixth Man of the Year award to being the unquestioned leader of this year's squad. He can score from all areas of the floor, and his propensity for throwing down big dunks on helpless defenders is likely already giving nightmares to whoever at Yale is tasked with guarding him. But he can also be streaky—he scored just nine points on 3-for-11 shooting against Kansas on Friday—and if he's cold on Thursday there will be a lot of scoring pressure on the big guys inside.

For an offensive x-factor, look to senior G Lester Medford (9.1 PPG, 6.5 APG, 1.6 SPG), whose broad skill set lets him pick up of some of his teammates' slack if they're struggling with scoring or ball movement. The Bears aren't studs defensively, as they rank 113th nationally with 69.3 points allowed per game and an ugly 232nd in field goal percentage defense (44.4 percent).

While no Ivy League team won a tournament game from 1999 to 2009, Cornell's two wins in 2010 and Harvard's first-round victories in 2013 and 2014 have established the prestigious academic association as a low major conference to fear come tournament time. It will be Yale's strength against Baylor's when the Yalies look to continue the Ivy League's momentum on Thursday, as the Bulldogs rank second in the nation (behind only Michigan State) with a +11.1 rebounding margin. They're particularly effective on the offensive boards, pulling down 13.37 offensive rebounds per game (15th in NCAA).

Fittingly, the big names for the Bulldogs are in the frontcourt. Senior F Justin Sears (15.8 PPG, 7.5 RPG, 1.8 BPG) is now the two-time Ivy League Player of the Year, and he represents a reliable crunch-time scoring option for Yale. He shot 51.9 percent from the field despite receiving heavy attention from opposing defenses, so it will be interesting to see if he's similarly efficient against Baylor big men that are stronger than their Ivy League counterparts.

Joining Sears on the All-Ivy League First Team is fellow senior F Brandon Sherrod (12.1 PPG, 7.1 RPG). After sitting out last season to sing in Yale's world-class a cappella group (seriously), Sherrod didn't miss a step in his return and actually shot even better than Sears (56.1 percent, third in Ivy League). It should go without saying that Gathers and Motley versus Sears and Sherrod is the tag-team matchup to watch in this one, and potentially the best frontcourt clash we'll see all tournament.

That said, as with Baylor's Medford, Yale's offensive success may come down to a guard. Sophomore G Makai Mason (15.8 PPG, 3.7 APG) was the Bulldogs' third All-Ivy First Team member, and whether or not he's ready for the bright lights of March may determine whether or not Yale can pull off the upset.

The other question is whether Yale's defense can live up to its vaunted reputation. The Bulldogs allowed just 63.1 points per game (13th in NCAA).

FRESNO STATE BULLDOGS (25-9) vs. UTAH UTES (26-8)

Sportsbook.ag Line: Utah -8.5, Total: 139

No. 3 Utah and No. 14 Fresno State stay out West for Thursday's Round of 64 matchup in Denver.

Both Utah and Fresno State enter the tournament with sterling records on the season, so the question is, how did the Mountain West Conference fall so far as to have only one team, a 14 seed, in the Big Dance? For the MWC, which had five teams receive tournament bids as recently as 2013, it's the league's first year as a single-bid conference since 2001. But the Bulldogs did the best with the schedule they were given, finishing 16-5 in conference play (14-7 ATS) and 9-4 out of conference (4-4). They've already had a couple cracks at top-tier Pac-12 opponents this season, losing at now-No. 1 seed Oregon 78-73 (Oregon -11.5) and at Arizona by an 85-72 score (Arizona -12.5). They're entering the tournament red hot, having won nine in a row (8-1 ATS) in a stretch that includes a Mountain West championship. The team began the tournament as a No. 2 seed before toppling No. 1 San Diego State 68-63 (SDSU -4.0) in the title game.

Utah had also won nine in a row (7-2 ATS) up until Saturday, when it was completely dismantled by Oregon 88-57 in the Pac-12 championship game (Oregon -2.5), the biggest blowout of the entire tournament. Utah's season-long in-conference resume speaks for itself, though, as the Utes went 15-6 (12-9 ATS) in a Pac-12 that earned seven NCAA Tournament bids, the most ever in the league's history. While they lost all three of their matchups against Oregon (0-3 ATS), they went 7-1 (6-2 ATS) in games against Arizona, Cal, Colorado and USC, the conference's next-highest finishers after the Ducks and the Utes. Utah also went 11-2 (but only 4-6-1 ATS) against non-conference foes. It was 5-3 in neutral-site games this season (4-4 ATS), while Fresno State was 2-0 both SU and ATS. Utah's games went OVER 56.3 percent of the time, and Fresno State’s did so 57.1 percent of the time.

The winner of this one gets either No. 6 Seton Hall or No. 11 Gonzaga on Saturday.

For Utah, everything starts in the middle with 7-foot-1 C Jakob Poeltl (17.6 PPG, 9 RPG, 1.6 BPG). Some were surprised when the prospective lottery pick returned for his sophomore season in Salt Lake City, but it's to the surprise of no one that the sophomore has dominated this year. Eighth in the country with a field goal percentage of 65.6, the towering center is one of the biggest names in this year's tournament. Thanks to his height advantage, Poeltl has had spells this season where he's barely missed; one four-game stretch in February saw him shoot 40-for-48 from the floor (83.3 percent). No one on Fresno State stands taller than 6-foot-9, so he should have plenty of opportunities to get to work inside on Thursday.

Poeltl does have games where he seems to disappear, although that can mean any number of things. When he scored 14 points on only seven shots in the Utes' 80-72 first-round Pac-12 Tournament victory win over USC, he was passing well and opening up opportunities for other scorers. But when he scored 13 points on six shots two days later in the blowout loss to Oregon, the numbers didn't lie: The Ducks completely limited his effectiveness.

That game was an outlier all around for the Utes, as they’re good for 77.6 points per game (66th in NCAA) and couldn’t buy a bucket. Their defense, too, is typically much better, although at 69.1 points allowed per game (11-th in NCAA), it's not as good as their offense.

Poeltl's supporting cast is headlined by senior G Brandon Taylor (9.6 PPG, 3.8 APG, 1.6 SPG) and senior F Jordan Loveridge (11.8 PPG, 3.9 RPG). Keep an eye on sophomore F Kyle Kuzma (10.8 PPG, 5.9 RPG), who's liable to drop 20 or go scoreless, depending on the night. Utah is 10-2 SU in games in which he's scored 15 points or more.

Fresno State is led by a veritable star in senior G Marvelle Harris (20.6 PPG, 4.7 RPG, 4.4 APG), who has seen his scoring and assists numbers grow in each of his four seasons as a Bulldog. The Mountain West Player of the Year was third in the conference in points per game and 22nd in the country, and first in the conference in assists per game. He shoots nearly six three-pointers per game but makes less than two, putting him at a 32.1 percent clip from deep on the season. If he happens to be hitting from outside, it could be a long day for the Utes. Harris is, however, a consistent perimeter threat on the other end of the floor, where he's averaging 2.2 steals per game.

After Harris, star power is thin for the Bulldogs, for whom Harris was the only player to make any of the three All-Mountain West teams. (For comparison, five Mountain West teams had multiple all-conference honorees.) That means Utah's defensive attention will be focused intensely on Harris, and others will need to step up for Fresno State to pull the upset.

Unfortunately, second-leading scorer F Torren Jones (10.5 PPG, 7.9 RPG) has missed the team's last 13 games for reasons that aren't entirely clear, and there's no word out of Fresno that indicates he'll be playing on Thursday. Clearly the Bulldogs have been just fine without Jones, but he's their biggest interior defender and probably the one with the best chance of holding Poeltl in check.

Junior F Karachi Edo (9.9 PPG, 6.4 RPG) has stepped up in some regards in Jones' absence, averaging 11.4 PPG but only 4.7 RPG since Jones went out. On the outside, senior G Julien Lewis (8.6 PPG) is shooting 42.9 percent from deep on 1.9 3PA. He may need to hoist up a few more than that—and make them—if Fresno State wants to shock Utah.

 
Posted : March 17, 2016 10:57 am
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East Region First Round Betting Preview
By Covers.com

No. 16 Florida Gulf Coast Eagles vs. No. 1 North Carolina Tar Heels (-22, 148)

Top-seeded North Carolina could be playing its best basketball of the season at the right time as it prepares to face the first test in the NCAA Tournament. The ACC champion Tar Heels look to extend their winning streak to six games when they take on 16th seed FGCU in the first round of the East Regional Thursday in Raleigh, N.C.

North Carolina allowed only 52 points per game and 33.6 percent shooting in the final two contests of the ACC tournament and hopes to continue that kind of work in the defensive end to add to its explosive offense. “We kept getting better all season,” Tar Heels coach Roy Williams told reporters of the team’s defense. “We saw the fruits of the labor immediately (at the ACC tournament) and that sort of gave us a little more confidence, too.” North Carolina will have to play well in the defensive end against FGCU, which shot 59.6 percent in the 96-65 victory over Fairleigh Dickinson in the First Four on Tuesday. “We’re just going to stay confident and believe in ourselves and give it our best effort,” Eagles leading scorer Marc Eddy Norelia told reporters. “Anything can happen.”

LINE HISTORY: The No. 1 seed North Carolina Tar Heels opened as massive 22-point favorites over the FGCU Eagles. The total opened at 148.

ABOUT FLORIDA GULF COAST (21-13, 4-3-1 ATS, 4-4 O/U): Norelia recorded 20 points on 10-of-11 shooting to go along with 10 rebounds in the First Four triumph for his fourth double-double in five games and had five of team's 27 assists - their most since becoming a Division I program for the 2011-12 season. Norelia tops three players in double figures scoring (17.3) and leads the team in rebounding (9.2) while shooting 54.9 percent from the field. Christian Terrell (12.7 points) is averaging 15 over the last four games and Zach Johnson (11.1) shoots 40.3 percent from behind the arc.

ABOUT NORTH CAROLINA (28-6, 16-17-1 ATS, 17-17 O/U): Joel Berry II raised his level of play in the ACC tournament, averaging 17 points, and joins the talented Marcus Paige in a backcourt that will be a key moving forward. Paige, a preseason All-American who has been inconsistent (12.1 points, 3.7 assists, 39.3 percent shooting), must find his top form if the Tar Heels are to win it all and Berry was 17-of-24 from the field in the ACC tournament. Brice Johnson is the top threat inside, averaging 16.6 points and 10.6 rebounds while shooting 61.4 percent from the field.

TRENDS:

* Eagles are 13-1 ATS in their last 14 neutral site games.
* Tar Heels are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 NCAA Tournament games.
* Under is 8-0-1 in Eagles last 9 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.
* Over is 5-0 in Tar Heels last 5 non-conference games.

No. 9 Providence Friars vs. No. 8 Southern California Trojans (+1.5, 149.5)

USC returns to the NCAA Tournament for the first time since 2011 when the eighth-seeded Trojans face No. 9 seed Providence, which finished fourth in the Big East and features future NBA lottery pick Kris Dunn in the backcourt, in the first round of the East Regional on Thursday night in Raleigh, N.C. The Trojans can only hope they enjoy the kind of success that their third-year had coach Andy Enfield experienced in his last trip to the NCAA Tournament in 2013 when his Florida Gulf Coast "Dunk City" squad made an unexpected run to the Sweet 16.

Ironically, Florida Gulf Coast may be taking the court just before the USC-Providence contest if it wins its First Four play-in game and faces North Carolina, the top overall seed in the East and the likely opponent for the Providence-USC winner. The Trojans, who were considered a bubble team after finishing in a three-way tie for sixth in the ultra-competitive Pac-12 Conference and then losing to Utah, 80-72, in the quarterfinals of the Pac-12 Tournament, exhaled when they finally saw their name appear on Sunday's selection show. "We figured we'd get in, but it was awesome to actually see it happen," guard Julian Jacobs said. "We're just super-glad to be in position to compete for a championship. We can't wait to get to North Carolina."

LINE HISTORY: Providence opened as one-point favorites over the USC Trojans. The point spread got as high as 3.5 at one point in the week but it settled down as the Friars -1.5. The total had an up-and-down week as well with an opening number of 149.5, a rise to 150.5, and a drop down to the original number of 149.5.

ABOUT PROVIDENCE (23-10, 18-14 ATS, 19-13 O/U): There might not be a better 1-2 punch in the nation than 6-9 sophomore forward Ben Bentil and Dunn, considered a potential top-five pick in this summer's NBA Draft. Bentil leads the team in scoring (21.2 points per game) and rebounding (7.8) while Dunn is second in scoring (16.0) and also is averaging 6.4 assists, 5.5 rebounds and 2.5 steals per game. Forward Rodney Bullock also is averaging in double figures (11.6) and had a team-best 18 points, including 4-of-5 3-pointers, in the Friars' 76-68 loss to No. 1 seeded Villanova in the semifinals of the Big East Tournament on Friday.

ABOUT USC (21-12, 18-14-1 ATS, 18-14-1 O/U): The Trojans won a total of five conference games and were just 23-41 in Enfield's first two seasons before turning things around dramatically this year. USC has five players averaging in double figures led by sophomore guard Jordan McLaughlin (13.4 points) who is also shooting 42.3 percent from 3-point range. Nikola Jovanovic, a 6-11 junior, mans the inside and is averaging 12.1 points and a team high 7.0 rebounds while Jacobs (11.8 points), Katin Reinhardt (11.5) and Bennie Boatwright (11.5) also are averaging double digits.

TRENDS:

* Friars are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 neutral site games.
* Trojans are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record.
* Under is 7-1 in Friars last 8 neutral site games.
* Over is 6-0-1 in Trojans last 7 games following a ATS loss.

No. 12 Chattanooga Mocs vs. No. 5 Indiana Hoosiers (-12, 145.5)

After a disappointing Big Ten tournament showing, Indiana gets a chance to redeem itself as a No. 5 seed in the NCAA Tournament, taking on No. 12 Chattanooga in a first-round game in the East region on Thursday. As the top seed in the Big Ten tournament, the Hoosiers lost their opening game on a buzzer-beater against Michigan, while the Mocs come in having won five straight, including rolling to their 11th Southern Conference tournament title.

Indiana is led by one of the top point guards in the country in senior Yogi Ferrell (17 points, 5.5 assists) and has a pair of solid scorers in Troy Williams (13.1 points) and Thomas Bryant (11.6). The Hoosiers average nearly 16 assists a game as a team, shooting 50.1 percent from the field, including 41.5 percent from 3-point range. Chattanooga notched a school-record 29 victories this season with 6-5 forward Tre McLean leading the way with 12.3 points and 6.4 rebounds. Justin Tuoyo, a 6-10 forward, adds 11.1 points, while senior Eric Robertson is a dangerous 3-point shooter, hitting 80 from beyond the arc on 40.4 percent shooting.

LINE HISTORY: The point spread opened with the Indiana Hoosiers favored by 11 but was quickly bet up to -12. The total opened at 144.5 and rose slightly during the week to 145.5.

ABOUT CHATTANOOGA (29-5, 16-13-1 ATS, 14-13-2 O/U): It's easier to say after the fact, but Chattanooga coach Matt McCall looks back on a Feb. 20 15-point loss to UNC Greensboro as a good thing. McCall's squad hasn't lost since the setback, which he said showed that his team wasn't ready for such a big moment but learned from it. "Everything was at stake (in the Southern tournament title game)," McCall told reporters. "Just trying to get the guys to understand that we've got to do our job and can't get caught up in the moment, so when the moment happened, we handled it well."

ABOUT INDIANA (25-7, 17-15 ATS, 15-17 O/U): Despite the disappointment of falling to Michigan in its Big Ten tournament opener, Indiana coach Tom Crean has his team confident it can shake off the loss and play well in the NCAA Tournament. Right after the contest, players were already talking about things they can improve on -- turnovers, motion on offense -- and looking forward to hitting the court in the Big Dance. "We're still confident," freshman OG Anunoby told reporters. "We think we can learn from it. And look forward to the next game."

TRENDS:

* Mocs are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.
* Hoosiers are 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 NCAA Tournament games.
* Over is 4-0-2 in Mocs last 6 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.
* Under is 4-1 in Hoosiers last 5 Thursday games.

No. 13 Stony Brook Seawolves vs. No. 4 Kentucky Wildcats (-14, 143)

After some regular-season struggles, Kentucky is once again a team that nobody wants to face in the NCAA Tournament. The SEC tournament champions begin their search for another Final Four trip Thursday in Des Moines, Iowa, as the No. 4 seed in the East Region against 13th-seeded Stony Brook.

The Wildcats have won five straight games, including a strong run through the SEC tournament which they capped with an overtime victory over Texas A&M on Sunday. “I'm really proud of this basketball team, how much they've improved,” coach John Calipari said to reporters in his postgame press conference. “Individually, guys are becoming the best version of themselves.” Calipari's assessment certainly includes standout point guard Tyler Ulis, who recorded 30 points against Texas A&M, and backcourt mate Jamal Murray, who is the team's leading scorer (20.1 points). Stony Brook is making its first NCAA Tournament appearance but boasts a legitimate star in 6-8 senior forward Jameel Warney, who averages 19.8 points and 10.7 rebounds and poured in a school-record 43 points with 10 boards in the America East title game against Vermont.

LINE HISTORY: Kentucky opened at -13.5 and the line was bet up to -14. The total opened at 144 and the public felt that was too high and pounded the under early in the week, prompting a drop by the books to 143.

ABOUT STONY BROOK (26-6, 0-5-1 ATS, 4-2 O/U): The Seawolves played at Vanderbilt and Notre Dame in the non-conference portion of their schedule, losing by seven and 25, respectively, although the defeat to the Commodores came in overtime. Warney has scored in double figures every game this season and averaged 30.3 points and 15.3 rebounds over three America East tournament contests. Three other Stony Brook players average at least 10 points, including Carson Puriefoy (15.1), who has knocked down at least 40 percent of his 3-pointers in four of the last five games and has drained a team-high 81 3-pointers on the year.

ABOUT KENTUCKY (26-8, 18-16 ATS, 19-14-1 O/U): The Wildcats have reached the Final Four in each of their last four NCAA Tournament appearances (2011, 2012, 2014, 2015) and - as usual - enter the Big Dance with a deep roster of reigning McDonald's All-Americans mixed in with some veteran mainstays. One of the veterans in this case is Ulis, the diminutive sophomore who has totaled 55 points and two turnovers in his last two games and has not been held to single-digit points since early January. The freshman class for the Wildcats is highlighted by Murray, who has knocked down at least three 3-pointers in 12 of his last 13 games, and Isaiah Briscoe, who has endured an up-and-down season but registered 10 points, six assists and five rebounds in the conference title game.

TRENDS:

* Seawolves are 0-5-2 ATS in their last 7 games overall.
* Wildcats are 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 NCAA Tournament games.
* Under is 7-2 in Seawolves last 9 neutral site games.
* Over is 5-0 in Wildcats last 5 neutral site games.

 
Posted : March 17, 2016 11:04 am
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Posts: 318493
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South Region First Round Betting Preview
By Covers.com

No. 9 Connecticut Huskies vs. No. 8 Colorado Buffaloes (+3, 131.5)

Connecticut took the drama out of Selection Sunday with a dramatic run to the American Athletic Conference title over the weekend. The Huskies, seeded ninth in the South Region, will begin their quest for a fifth national title when they meet No. 8 Colorado in the first round on Thursday at Des Moines, Iowa.

UConn may not have even been in the NCAA field if it weren't for freshman guard Jalen Adams' miraculous 62-foot game-tying prayer at the third-overtime buzzer in its four-overtime win over Cincinnati on Friday. The Huskies steamrolled their way past Temple and Memphis after that to win its first AAC title and the automatic NCAA bid. Some felt that Colorado was a bubble team, but the Buffaloes earned their way into the 68-team field with a fifth-place finish in the Pac-12. Thursday's winner will most likely face the tournament's top-seeded Kansas in the second round if the Jayhawks get past Austin Peay.

LINE HISTORY: The point spread opened with UConn as three-point favorites. The line fluxuated a bit early - even getting as high as 4 at one point - but it seems to have settled in at Cunnecticut -3. The total started at too high of a number in the mind of the betting public. This game had a starting number of 134.5 and was quickly bet all the way down to 131.5.

ABOUT CONNECTICUT (24-10, 16-13-1 ATS, 13-16-1 O/U): Running through conference tournaments on the way to the NCAA is nothing new for the Huskies, who embarked on magical rides to the national title in 2011 with the heroics and Kemba Walker and then again in 2014 paced by guard Shabazz Napier. This year's Huskies needed another strong finish to earn a bid and got it thanks to the resurgence of Daniel Hamilton, who has three straight double-doubles and scored a career-high 32 points in 55 minutes against Cincinnati in the ACC quarterfinals. Adams has also blossomed into a budding star, scoring a career-high 22 points against Cincinnati while getting extended playing time while Shonn Miller and Sterling Gibbs both scored team-high 13 points in Sunday's championship game.

ABOUT COLORADO (22-11, 19-11 ATS, 15-15 O/U): The Buffaloes nearly erased a 22-point deficit but fell short in their last outing, an 82-78 loss against Arizona in the Pac-12 quarterfinals. Colorado, however, got a much-needed win in its conference tournament opener, blowing out Washington State and are in the field for the fourth time in six years under coach Tad Boyle. The Buffaloes won 11 straight games early in the season before ending the campaign losers of six of their last 11, but are a formidable bunch ranked fourth in the nation in rebounding (42.4 per game) and own big victories over Arizona and Oregon, which earned the No. 1 seed in the West Region.

TRENDS:

* Huskies are 15-3 ATS in their last 18 NCAA Tournament games.
* Buffaloes are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games overall.
* Over is 4-0 in Huskies last 4 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.
* Under is 6-2 in Buffaloes last 8 games following a straight up loss.

No. 16 Austin Peay Governors vs. No. 1 Kansas Jayhawks (-26, 152)

Kansas is the NCAA Tournament’s No. 1 overall seed and will tip off tourney play Thursday against 16th-seeded Austin Peay in a South Region matchup in Des Moines, Iowa. Of course, a No. 16 seed never has beaten a No. 1, but there is definite later-in-the-bracket concern about the Jayhawks, who have been ousted by lower-seeded teams in five of the last six NCAA tourneys and have failed to advance past the second round in each of their last two appearances.

Coach Bill Self has seen the complete March range in his 13 seasons at the Kansas helm, also guiding the program to five Elite Eight appearances, including a national title in 2008. This will be the fifth time the Jayhawks have been a No. 1 seed under Self and the first time since 2013, when they lost to fourth-seeded Michigan in the Sweet 16. “We’ve had some (NCAA Tournaments) where we’ve under-performed ... but, really, there’s pressure on everyone in this tournament,” Self told the media after the South bracket had been revealed. “We’ve done a lot of good things this season, winning our 12th straight (regular-season) Big 12 championship and winning the Big 12 Tournament, but to have a truly successful season, we know you have to have success later in March.” Austin Peay, meanwhile, is making its first NCAA Tournament appearance since 2008 after winning the Ohio Valley Conference Tournament title on March 5 as an eighth seed.

LINE HISTORY: The Kansas Jayhawks opened as 26-point favorites and the total opened at 152. Both numbers have stayed relatively steady and any wobble in either number was quickly returned to the opening figure.

ABOUT AUSTIN PEAY (18-17, 13-15-1 ATS, 19-9-1 O/U): The Governors enter the Big Dance on a six-game win streak, including four victories in four days at the Ohio Valley tourney in Nashville. The Clarksville, Tenn., program is led by 6-8 senior Chris Horton, who is averaging a team-best 18.9 points and 12 rebounds and was named the Ohio Valley Tournament MVP despite being limited by an ankle injury suffered late in the first half of the title game. Guards Josh Robinson (16.7 points) and Khalil Davis (11.2) also are averaging double figures while freshman guard Jared Savage is coming off a career-high 24-point outing in the Ohio Valley championship game, with all the scoring coming on an 8-of-10 showing from 3-point range.

ABOUT KANSAS (30-4, 21-11 ATS, 12-19-1 O/U): The Jayhawks enter the Big Dance as one of the nation’s hottest teams, riding a 14-game win streak which includes three Big 12 Tournament victories by an average of 12 points apiece. Guard Devonte’ Graham was named the tourney’s Most Outstanding Player after scoring a career high-tying 27 points in the 81-71 championship game win over West Virginia, and he was joined on the all-tournament team by senior forward Perry Ellis, who totaled 58 points in the three games and is averaging a team-best 16.7 points per contest. Guards Wayne Selden Jr. (13.3 points), Frank Mason III (13.1) and Graham (11.7) also are averaging double digits for Kansas while forward Landen Lucas (6.3 rebounds) and Ellis (5.9) are the team’s pace-setters on the glass.

TRENDS:

* Governors are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 neutral site games.
* Jayhawks are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 non-conference games.
* Over is 10-1 in Governors last 11 games following a ATS win.
* Under is 24-6 in Jayhawks last 30 NCAA Tournament games.

No. 14 Buffalo Bulls vs. No. 3 Miami Hurricanes (-14, 148.5)

Jim Larranaga - who coached George Mason to the 2006 Final Four - looks to conjure up some old March magic as his Miami squad returns to the NCAA Tournament for the first time since 2013 when it takes on Buffalo in a South Region first-round game Thursday in Providence, R.I. The Hurricanes, the No. 3 seed in the West region, come in having won nine of their last 11, while the Bulls took the Mid-American Conference tournament championship for the second straight season.

Miami sports a balanced offense, with four players averaging in double figures - led by Sheldon McClellan (15.8 points), Angel Rodriguez (11.8) and Davon Reed (11.5), each of whom hit more than 40 3-pointers this year. The Hurricanes are also solid defensively, holding opponents to 66.6 points on 43 percent shooting from the field. Buffalo became the first team in 14 years to defend its MAC tournament title despite being the No. 3 seed, upsetting top-seeded Akron on Saturday. The Bulls also feature four double-figure scorers, with Lamonte Bearden and Blake Hamilton leading the way at 13.6 and 13.1 points, respectively.

LINE HISTORY: Miami opened at -13.5 and were quickly bet up to -14. After sitting at -14 for about 24 hours the line settled back down to -13.5. The total opened and 149.5 and has gradually dropped to it's current status of 148.5.

ABOUT BUFFALO (20-14, 17-13-2 ATS, 18-13-1 O/U): After making a trip to the Big Dance last season, Buffalo should be a little more relaxed when it takes the floor against Miami. The Bulls weren't expected to come back to the NCAA Tournament, especially early in the season under first-year head coach Nate Oats, but the team seems to be coming together at just the right time and could give the Hurricanes a tough go. "Nobody was predicting this back in October, November," Oats told reporters. "So I can't say enough about the character of these guys. We got hot at the right time. It's the best basketball we played all year. And we picked the right time to do it, for sure."

ABOUT MIAMI (25-7, 18-12-1 ATS, 15-16 O/U): While everyone wants to go into the NCAA Tournament on a roll, more than half of the field will be coming off a loss, like the Hurricanes are after a loss to Virginia in the ACC tournament semifinals. In fact, Larranaga wasted no time reminding his team that last year's national champion, Duke, also lost in the ACC tournament semis, so there are bigger and better things to focus on. "Nobody's down on themselves because we have bigger things to worry about," forward Kamari Murphy told reporters. "Like Coach told us, Duke was in this exact situation last year and went on to win the title, so a tournament is a new season for us. We have to take one game at a time and hope to keep winning and compete for a national championship."

TRENDS:

* Bulls are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 neutral site games.
* Hurricanes are 12-3 ATS in their last 15 non-conference games.
* Over is 14-2 in Bulls last 16 Thursday games.
* Over is 8-1 in Hurricanes last 9 NCAA Tournament games.

No. 11 Wichita St. Shockers vs. No. 6 Arizona Wildcats (-1.5, 136.5)

Not only did Arizona receive a lower seed than expected, it must travel almost 2,600 miles to face a well-seasoned backcourt duo in the first round of the NCAA Tournament. The sixth-seeded Wildcats take on 11th seed Wichita State, featuring senior guards Fred VanVleet and Ron Baker, on Thursday in the South Regional at Providence, R.I.

“We’ve had obstacles. We’ve had adversity strike us,” Arizona coach Sean Miller, whose team went 3-3 in its last six games, told reporters. “The resilience of this team really stands out.” The Wildcats took NCAA top seed Oregon to overtime before losing in the Pac-12 tournament semifinals and boasts three players that average at least 15 points. Arizona will be tested by the Shockers, who rolled away from Vanderbilt 70-50 in the First Four game at Dayton, Ohio on Tuesday as Baker and VanVleet totaled 28 points. “No doubt they’ll have momentum,” Miller told the Arizona Republic. “. … But I also know this: Rest at this time of year is real important. Sometimes, you can get beat up in your own conference tournament and it’s a quick turnaround.”

LINE HISTORY: The spread and total were late arriving based on Wichita St. being involved in the First Four game on Tuesday night. Arizona opened as -1.5 favorites and the total sits at 136.5.

ABOUT WICHITA ST. (25-8, 19-12 ATS, 13-17-1 O/U): Baker scores 14.2 per game and VanVleet chips in with 12.1 while combining for 102 makes from 3-point range for the Shockers, who have won seven of their last eight contests. Half of their points came from bench players Tuesday as Anton Grady scored 11, Conner Frankamp eight and Markis McDuffie seven. “It just speaks volumes to our depth, VanVleet told reporters. “We worked so hard on the young guys. And for them to step up in those moments is huge for our team. This time of year, that’s what you need.”

ABOUT ARIZONA (25-8, 16-17 ATS, 22-11 O/U): Forward Ryan Anderson returns to New England where he played three seasons with Boston College and looks to rebound from a 2-for-13 shooting performance against Oregon. Anderson averages 15.5 points, 10.1 rebounds and shoots 54.7 percent from the field while senior guard Gabe York scores 15.2 per game - 21.8 over the past four contests. Freshman guard Allonzo Trier has made an impact by averaging 15 points, and 7-0 senior Kaleb Tarczewski (9.4 points, 9.3 boards) could be a key against Wichita State’s relatively small front line.

TRENDS:

* Shockers are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 neutral site games.
* Wildcats are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 non-conference games.
* Under is 6-1 in Shockers last 7 vs. Pacific-12.
* Over is 4-1 in Wildcats last 5 non-conference games.

 
Posted : March 17, 2016 11:04 am
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Midwest Region First Round Betting Preview
By Covers.com

No. 9 Butler Bulldogs vs. No. 8 Texas Tech Red Raiders (+4, 147)

Eighth-seeded Texas Tech, making its first NCAA Tournament appearance since 2007, will face tournament veteran and No. 9-seed Butler in Raleigh, N.C., on Thursday in the first round of the Midwest region. Both teams enter the dance after disappointing exits in their respective conference tournaments.

Texas Tech got on a roll in February - winning five in a row, including three consecutive against top 25 teams - before a 1-3 finish capped by a loss to last-place TCU in the Big 12 tournament. Red Raiders coach Tubby Smith - named the league's coach of the year - joins Oklahoma's Lon Kruger - as the only coaches to take five teams to the NCAA Tournament. The Bulldogs earned their eighth berth in the past 10 years and have won at least one game in seven of those appearances. Thursday's winner will face top-seeded Virginia or Hampton on Saturday.

LINE HISTORY: Bookmakers think the selection committee got the seeding wrong on this one with the 9th seeded Bulldogs opening as 2.5-point favorites and bettors agree. The line has moved from Butler -2.5 to -4. The total has been bet down a point and a half, moving from 148.5 to 147. Check out the complete line history here.

ABOUT BUTLER (21-10, 16-14-1 ATS, 16-13-1 O/U): Sharp-shooting Kellen Dunham (42.8 percent from 3-point range) leads four players in double figures at 16.3 for the high-scoring Bulldogs (80.6 points). Forwards Kelan Martin (16.1 points, 6.8 rebounds), Roosevelt Jones (14, 6.6) and Andrew Chrabascz (10.1 points) give the Bulldogs plenty of scoring options all over the court. The Bulldogs - who went 2-7 against the Big East's four other NCAA Tournament teams - are looking for back-to-back opening round wins after beating Texas last year.

ABOUT TEXAS TECH (19-12, 15-13 ATS, 15-13 O/U): Toddrick Gotcher shoots 40 percent from behind the 3-point line and leads a balanced offensive attack - where seven players average at least eight points - with 11.1. Devaugntah Williams (10.6 points) and Aaron Ross (10.3) contribute off the bench and Zach Smith (10.1) leads the team with 7.4 rebounds per game. The Red Raiders, who led the Big 12 in free-throw shooting (74.6 percent), haven't won a tournament game since advancing to the 2005 Sweet 16.

TRENDS:

* Butler is 5-1 ATS in its last six games overall and 21-6-1 ATS in their last 28 NCAA Tournament games.
* Texas Tech is 3-13 ATS in its last 16 neutral site games.
* Over is 5-1 in Butler's last six games overall.
* Under is 4-1 in Texas Tech's last five NCAA Tournament games.

No. 13 Iona Gaels vs. No. 4 Iowa State Cyclones (-7.5, 167)

After a year to lament last season’s early exit from the NCAA Tournament, Iowa State gets its chance for redemption when the fourth-seeded Cyclones face No. 13 seed Iona in the Midwest Region on Thursday in Denver. The Cyclones are in the tournament for a school-record fifth consecutive year and are a top-four seed for the third straight season, but they flamed out early in a 60-59 first-round loss to No. 14 seed UAB a year ago.

Iona is no stranger to painful losses in March – in 10 previous trips to the NCAA Tournament, the Gaels have only one win (in 1980) and seven losses by five points or fewer. The Gaels enter the tournament as one of the hottest teams in the nation, having won eight straight and 12 of their last 13. Iowa State enters the tournament after consecutive losses to No. 1 Kansas in the regular-season finale and No. 6 Oklahoma in the Big 12 tournament, but the Cyclones have an impressive resume that includes wins over those same two teams. The Gaels won the only previous meeting, 89-72 at Iowa State on Nov. 26, 2005.

LINE HISTORY: Iowa State opened as eight point favorites and have been bet down to -7.5. The total here is the interesting number. With these two high flying teams the total opened at 167 - the highest of the First Round - and has actually been bet up to 167. Check out the complete line history here.

ABOUT IONA (22-10, 16-15 ATS, 15-16 O/U): The Gaels are in the NCAA Tournament for the third time in six seasons under coach Tim Cluess, whose teams play at a break-neck pace and love the 3-point shot. Star guard A.J. English (22.4 points, 6.2 assists) – the son of former NBA star Alex English – is one of three Gaels with at least 77 made 3-pointers and 171 attempts from beyond the arc. Volatile forward Jordan Washington (13.8 points, 6.2 rebounds) is a force inside when he can stay out of foul trouble, but he averages just 18.4 minutes.

ABOUT IOWA STATE (21-11, 15-13 ATS, 13-15-1 O/U): The Cyclones are one of the most balanced teams in the nation with seven players averaging double-digit scoring, but senior forward Georges Niang (19.8 points, 6.2 rebounds) is their star. Niang matched his career high with 31 points against Oklahoma on Thursday and has scored in double figures in 41 consecutive games and 112 in his career. If opponents focus too much effort on limiting Niang’s touches, though, there are plenty of other Cyclones who can make them pay, and point guard Monte Morris (13.9 points, 6.9 assists) is adept and doing it himself or finding the open teammate.

TRENDS:

* Iona is 7-1 ATS in its last eight games overall.
* Iowa State is 1-3-1 ATS in its last five non-conference games.
* Under is 4-0 in Iona's last four neutral site games.
* Under is 9-2 in Iowa State's last 11 neutral site games.

No. 16 Hampton Pirates vs. No. 1 Virginia Cavaliers (-23.5, 133)

Virginia has earned a No. 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament for the second time in three seasons and opens play Thursday in Raleigh, N.C., with a first-round matchup against No. 16 Hampton in the Midwest Region. The Cavaliers cannot look too far ahead but are facing a potential matchup with No. 2 seed Michigan State - which has knocked off Virginia in each of the last two tournaments - in the regional final.

Before they can even entertain such a thought, the Cavaliers must recover from a 61-57 loss to North Carolina in the ACC tournament title game on Saturday. For the fifth straight season under coach Tony Bennett, Virginia has held opponents to under 60 points per game, but this version averaged over 70 on the other end for the first time in Bennett's seven season, led by ACC Player of the Year Malcolm Brogdon (18.7). Hampton is in the Big Dance for the sixth time after rolling through the Mid-Eastern Athletic Conference. The Pirates had a memorable win as a 15-seed in the first round of the 2001 NCAA Tournament and picked up another victory in the event with a triumph over Manhattan in a "First Four" game last season.

LINE HISTORY: Virginia opened as big 24-point favorites over Hampton and have been bet down slightly to -23.5. The total has also been bet down a half point, moving from 133.5 to 133. Check out the complete line history here.

ABOUT HAMPTON (21-10, 3-2 ATS, 5-0 O/U): The Pirates have a two-headed monster in senior guards Reggie Johnson - who ranked second on the MEAC in scoring (18.3) and tied for third in assists (4.1) - and Quinton Chievous, the league's fourth-leading scorer (17.0) and top rebounder (11.0). The latter averaged 18.5 points and 11.5 boards in two tournament games a year ago and enters this one having averaged 18.5 points and 10.8 rebounds over his last four games. Brian Darden, also a senior, is the one other player scoring in double figures (13.2) and ranks as the team's most consistent perimeter threat, knocking down 8-of-14 3-pointers in the final two games of the conference tourney.

ABOUT VIRGINIA (26-7, 17-14 ATS, 12-19 O/U): Brogdon averaged 21.7 points during the ACC tournament but was just 6-of-22 from the floor against the Tar Heels and likely has motivation to improve upon his past performances in NCAAs. He shot 10-of-30 in the team's Sweet 16 run two seasons ago and was 9-of-29 last year, including 3-of-12 in the second straight elimination loss to Michigan State. Anthony Gill, the team's second-leading scorer, has reached double figures in four of his previous five NCAA Tournament games.

TRENDS:

* Hampton is 5-0 ATS in its last five non-conference games.
* Virginia is 5-1 ATS in its last six games overall.
* Over is 6-0 in Hampton's last six games overall (when a total was listed).
* Under is 11-2 in Virginia's last 13 games overall.

No. 12 Arkansas-Little Rock Trojans vs. No. 5 Purdue Boilermakers (-9, 128.5)

Fifth-seeded Purdue looks to build on its deep run in the Big Ten tournament when it takes on No. 12 seed Little Rock in the first round of the Midwest Region in Denver on Thursday. The Boilermakers notched impressive victories over Illinois and Michigan before falling to red-hot Michigan State 66-62 in the tournament final but will make their second straight NCAA Tournament appearance after missing out on March Madness in the previous two years.

Purdue has won the battle of the boards in all but two games this season and hopes to use its overwhelming height advantage to advance past the first round for the first time since 2012. Little Rock coach Chris Beard has engineered one of the most impressive turnarounds in the nation as the Trojans notched 16 more wins than they did in the previous season. Little Rock has won eight of its last nine games and captured the Sun Belt regular-season and tournament titles en route to setting a school record for most victories in a campaign with 29. The Trojans beat ULM 70-50 in the Sun Belt Tournament final to secure their fifth trip to the NCAA Tournament and their first since 2011.

LINE HISTORY: Purdue opened as 8-point favorites and have been bet up a point to its current number of -9. The total has seen plenty of movement, going down 2.5-points from 131 to 128.5. Check out the complete line history here.

ABOUT LITTLE ROCK (29-4, 19-10 ATS, 10-19 O/U): Roger Woods went 8-of-10 from the field en route to a team-high 19 points against ULM and earned the tournament's Most Valuable Player award in the process. Marcus Johnson Jr. added 14 points while Jalen Jackson provided a spark off the bench by scoring 11 points. "I'm the luckiest man in the world to be coaching these guys," Beard told reporters. "We're not done yet and I think we can do some damage in the tournament."

ABOUT PURDUE (26-8, 18-11-1 ATS, 15-15 O/U): Vince Edwards led the Boilermakers with 19 points while A.J. Hammons added 11 points and nine rebounds against Michigan State to finish in double figures for the 15th consecutive game. Caleb Swanigan also scored 11 points but Purdue couldn't overcome a poor-shooting first half against the Spartans. "We came far from two years ago coming in last place in the Big Ten," senior defensive stopper Rapheal Davis told reporters. "To go out and get a five seed and play a good team like Little Rock will be good for us."

TRENDS:

* Arkansas-Little Rock is 7-1 ATS in its last eight non-conference games.
* Purdue is 6-0-1 ATS in its last seven games overall.
* Under is 4-0 in Arkansas-Little Rock's last four neutral site games.
* Over is 5-2 in Purdue's last seven games overall.

No. 14 Fresno State Bulldogs vs. No. 3 Utah Utes (-8.5, 138.5)

Third-seeded Utah made a splash in its return to the NCAA Tournament in 2015 and hopes to take a step - or four - further when it meets No. 14 seed Fresno State on Thursday in the first round of the Midwest Region in Denver. The Utes, appearing in their first NCAAs since 2009, lost to eventual national champion Duke in the Sweet 16 last season and return plenty of experience and firepower including Pac-12 Conference Player of the Year Jakob Poeltl.

Utah was crushed by Oregon - the No. 1 seed in the West Region - 88-57 in Saturday's Pac-12 tournament final, but coach Larry Krystkowiak wasn't too concerned after the Utes had their nine-game winning streak snapped. "I know our guys would trade for some success starting (Thursday),'' he told reporters. "If it means getting our butts waxed in the championship game, then we'll take our medicine and hopefully be focused for some practice on Monday." The Bulldogs earned their ninth straight victory and first NCAA bid since 2001 with a 68-63 win over San Diego State on Saturday in the Mountain West Conference tournament championship game behind senior guard and MWC Player of the Year Marvelle Harris, the school's all-time leading scorer. "It was incredible. Greatest feeling I've had in my whole basketball career," Harris told reporters after the title game. "It's a big win for the program, community, fans, everyone. ..."

LINE HISTORY: Utah opened as 8-point favorites and have been bet up to -8.5. Meanwhile, the total has moved a whopping four points since opening, going down from 142.5 to 138.5. Check out the complete line history here.

ABOUT FRESNO STATE (25-9, 18-11 ATS, 17-12 O/U): Harris (20.6 points, 4.7 rebounds, team-high 4.4 assists) has 2,007 career points after averaging 17.7 in three MWC tournament games and scoring 34 against Utah State on March 5 to break the previous school record of 1,951 set by Melvin Ely in 2002. Harris, who was also named MWC tournament MVP, has 701 points this season - breaking the previous single-season school standard set by Carl Ray Harris in 1994. The Bulldogs boast six other players averaging at least 7.6 points including Torren Jones (10.5 points, team-high 7.9 rebounds) and fellow junior forward Karachi Edo (9.9, 6.4).

ABOUT UTAH (26-8, 16-15-1 ATS, 18-13-1 O/U): Poeltl, a 7-0 sophomore forward from Vienna, Austria, averages 17.6 points, nine rebounds and 1.6 blocks. The Utes have five players scoring at least 9.6 points with senior forward Jordan Loveridge (11.8) leading the group, which also includes sophomore forward Kyle Kuzma (10.8 points, 5.9 rebounds). Senior point guard Brandon Taylor (9.6 points, team-high 3.8 assists) runs the show while junior guard Lorenzo Bonam (9.9 points) also contributes.

TRENDS:

* Fresno State is 6-0 ATS in its last six games overall.
* Utah is 4-0-2 ATS in its last six games versus Mountain West opponents.
* Over is 5-1 in Fresno State's last six games overall.
* Over is 6-0 in Utah's last six neutral site games.

No. 11 Gonzaga Bulldogs vs. No. 6 Seton Hall Pirates (Pick, 145.5)

Seton Hall's shocking run to the Big East tournament title earned it an equally surprising No. 6 seed and a date with No. 11 Gonzaga in the first round of the NCAA Tournament in Denver on Thursday. The Pirates, making their first appearance in the field in 10 years, will be looking to recapture some of their former glory, like when they reached the 1989 championship game, as they kick off play in the Midwest Region.

Gonzaga needed an extended run and perhaps even the West Coast Conference tournament title to secure its 18th straight appearance in the field. The Bulldogs, who reached the Elite Eight last year, losing to eventual national champion Duke, did just that by disposing of Saint Mary's in the final, leaving the top-seeded Gaels on the Big Dance sidelines. Gonzaga is one of only two teams to win its opening-round tournament game each of the last seven seasons -- Kansas is the other. Led by sophomore sensation Isaiah Whitehead, who scored 26 points in the Big East title game against Villanova, Seton Hall is making its 10th appearance in the tournament.

LINE HISTORY: Another situation where the books feel the selection commitee got the seeding wrong opening the No. 11 seed Bulldogs as slight 2-point faves over the Pirates. Money has come in on Seton Hall since however and the line has moved to a Pick'em. The total has been bet up 2-points from 143.5 to 145.5. Check out the complete line history here.

ABOUT SETON HALL (25-8, 23-9 ATS, 14-18 O/U): Whitehead, who is expected to bolt for the NBA after the season, recorded a three-point play in the closing seconds to lead the Pirates to a 69-67 win over the Wildcats in the Big East title game. Another sophomore, Khadeen Carrington, scored a game-high 23 points as Seton Hall nipped Xavier 87-83 in the semifinal. The Pirates are certainly young but guided by coach Kevin Willard and, in his sixth year with the team, they have won 12 of their last 14 games in what was regarded as one of the toughest conferences in the nation.

ABOUT GONZAGA (26-7, 15-15-1 ATS, 16-15 O/U): Gonzaga's NCAA Tournament streak seemed to be in serious jeopardy after an early-season back injury cost them the services of star center Przemek Karnowski. But emerging power forward Domantas Sabonis, who some feel is a future NBA lottery choice, and sharp-shooting Kyle Wiltjer, who transferred from national champion Kentucky after the 2012-13 season and led the team in scoring at 20.7 points a game, helped keep the Bulldogs in the bubble picture. Led by coach Mark Few, Gonzaga has shunned the label of mid-major power and is 22-18 all-time in NCAA games with six trips to the Sweet 16 and two trips to the Elite Eight, although the team was just 1-3 against ranked opponents this season.

TRENDS:

* Gonzaga is 5-0 ATS in its last five games overall.
* Seton Hall is 4-0 ATS in its last four neutral site games.
* Over is 5-0 in Gonzaga's last five neutral site games.
* Over is 2-1 in Seton Hall's last six games overall.

 
Posted : March 17, 2016 11:08 am
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Posts: 318493
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West Region First Round Betting Preview
By Covers.com

No. 13 UNC-Wilmington Seahawks vs. No. 4 Duke Blue Devils (-10.5, 157)

A Tar Heel State showdown is on tap Thursday in Providence, R.I., where fourth-seeded Duke will take on No. 13 seed UNC Wilmington in the first round of the NCAA Tournament's West Region. While the Blue Devils are in the NCAA Tournament for the 21st consecutive season, the Seahawks are making their first appearance in a decade.

The Blue Devils are the defending national champions, but they’ve struggled at times after losing big man Amile Jefferson to a broken foot just nine games into the season and won just one game in the ACC tournament before losing to Notre Dame in overtime in the quarterfinals. The Seahawks have been in tournament mode for more than a week after having to scrape through three close games in the Colonial Athletic Association tournament. They won their first two games in the tournament by a total of five points and needed overtime to dispatch Hofstra in the championship game. The in-state foes have met only once before, with Duke winning 67-57 in overtime on Feb. 8, 1982.

LINE HISTORY: Duke opened as 9.5-point faves and all the early money has been on the Blue Devils, who have been bet up a whole point to sit at -10.5. The total has been bet up a half point from 156.5 to 157. Check out the complete line history here.

ABOUT UNC WILMINGTON (25-7, 15-13 ATS, 16-12 O/U): The Seahawks were a fixture in the NCAA Tournament in the early 2000s but have only one win – a 93-89 overtime triumph over No. 4 seed USC in 2002. Wilmington employs a guard-oriented lineup with four starters listed at 6-5 or shorter and likes to push the pace. Junior guard Chris Flemmings (16.1 points, 5.9 rebounds) is the team’s top scorer and rebounder, but backcourt mates Denzel Ingram (12.5 points) and Craig Ponder (11.1 points) also can hurt defenses.

ABOUT DUKE (23-10, 13-17-2 ATS, 14-18 O/U): The Blue Devils took a huge hit when they lost Jefferson, a post presence and veteran leader, and their youth has shown at the defensive end. There is plenty of offensive firepower with sophomore guard Grayson Allen (21.6 points) leading the way, but two of the team’s top three – Brandon Ingram (16.8 points, 6.8 rebounds) and Luke Kennard (11.9 points) – are freshmen who are unproven on the big stage. Allen, Ingram and junior guard Matt Jones (10.8 points) all love to shoot from the outside and are the first trio in program history to each make at least 70 3-pointers in a season.

TRENDS:

* NC-Wilmington is 1-4 ATS in their last five games overall.
* Duke is 0-5 ATS in their last five games overall, but 6-0 ATS in its last six NCAA Tournament games.
* Over is 7-1 in UNC-Wilmington's last eight neutral site games.
* Under is 8-2 in Duke's last 10 games overall.

No. 12 Yale Bulldogs vs. No. 5 Baylor Bears (-5, 136.5)

Baylor was among the best teams in the nation's best conference this season and hopes the high level of competition puts it in a position to succeed in the NCAA Tournament beginning with Thursday's West Region first-round game against Yale in Providence, R.I. The fifth-seeded Bears are coming off a 70-66 loss to No. 1 Kansas on Friday in the Big 12 tournament semifinals and have lost three of their last four games - all against ranked teams.

Baylor should also be extra motivated after a stunning 57-56 loss to No. 14 seed Georgia State in the first round of the 2015 NCAA Tournament. "Last year, we didn't like how it ended," Bears coach Scott Drew told reporters. "We had had a lot of success in the tournament, and that was the first time we really got stung. I know the returning players and coaches are motivated to make sure we do better." The No. 12 seed Bulldogs are playing in their first NCAA Tournament since John F. Kennedy was president after winning their first Ivy League title since 1962. Yale, which went 13-1 in the Ivy League, is riding a five-game winning streak and has won seven of eight since captain Jack Montague was expelled from school after an alleged sexual assault incident.

LINE HISTORY: The No. 5 seed Bears opened as 5.5-point favorites, but money has come in on the Bulldogs, with Baylor now sitting at -5. As for the total, bettors like the over with the number moving up a point and a half from 135 to 136.5. Check out the complete line history here.

ABOUT YALE (22-6, 11-6-2 ATS, 11-8 O/U): The Bulldogs are expected to control the game with a slow tempo and frustrate the athletic Bears. Yale is led in scoring by senior forward Justin Sears and sophomore guard Makai Mason, who each average 15.8 points despite Sears scoring only nine total points in the last two games. Sears grabs a team-best 7.5 rebounds while senior forward Brandon Sherrod (12.5 points, 7.1 rebounds) is also a major contributor.

ABOUT BAYLOR (22-12, 12-14-1 ATS, 15-12 O/U): The Bears have five players who score roughly two-thirds of their points, led by senior forward Taurean Prince (15.5 points, 6.1 rebounds). Baylor will need senior forward Rico Gathers (11.4 points, 9.1 rebounds) to contribute offensively and control the boards against a solid rebounding team which is 20th nationally at 40.4 per game. Sophomore guard Al Freeman (11.5 points) and sophomore forward Johnathan Motley (11.0 points) are also offensive factors while senior point guard Lester Medford (9.1 points, 11th nationally with 6.5 assists) runs the show.

TRENDS:

* Yale is 6-0 ATS in its last six neutral site games.
* Baylor is 4-1 ATS in its last five games overall.
* Under is 4-0 in Yale's last four games following an ATS win.
* Under is 4-0 in Baylor's last four games overall.

 
Posted : March 17, 2016 11:10 am
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