College Basketball Betting News and Notes Thursday, March 26

Thursday's Top Action
By Sportsbook.ag

W VIRGINIA MOUNTAINEERS (25-9) vs. KENTUCKY WILDCATS (36-0)

Quicken Loans Arena – Cleveland, OH
NCAA Tournament – Sweet 16
Tip-off: Thursday, 9:45 p.m. ET
Sportsbook.ag Line: Kentucky -13.5 Total 136.5

Kentucky looks to stay perfect and advance to the Elite 8 with a win over West Virginia Thursday.

West Virginia faced Maryland in the last round of this tournament and won 69-59 as a 1.5-point favorite. The Mountaineers have now won-and-covered in two straight games and three of their past four. They have also covered in seven of their past nine games. Kentucky, meanwhile, defeated Cincinnati 64-51 as a 16-point favorite last round. The Wildcats obviously come into this game after having won 36 games in a row SU. They have held their past nine opponents under 70 points and have only allowed their opponent to shoot over 40% from the field in four of their past 10 games. The Wildcats know how to make their opponent uncomfortable and they’ll look to do the same against West Virginia Thursday. These teams have met four times since 1997 and Kentucky has gone 3-1 both SU and ATS in those games. The one West Virginia victory will hold significance though, as it was a Mountaineers 73-66 upset over John Wall and DeMarcus Cousins’ then 35-2 Kentucky team in 2010. That John Calipari team was considered one of the best he ever coached, so Bob Huggins will draw motivation from that upset for this year’s bunch. West Virginia is 12-3 ATS when seeded 5 to 8 in the NCAA tournament since 1997 and 19-5 ATS overall in the tournament since then as well. Kentucky, meanwhile, is 84-58 ATS off a no-cover where the team won straight up as a favorite since 1997. F Kevin Noreen (Undisclosed) is out indefinitely for the Mountaineers and F Alex Poythress (Knee) is out for the season for the Wildcats.

Can the Mountaineers defeat the perfect Wildcats in the Sweet 16 on Thursday? For the latest college basketball picks, check out The Platinum Sheet for all the StatFox Experts selections every week throughout the entire 2013-14 season. StatFox Zach is on a 56% ATS (32-25) Best Bets run since Jan. 1 and has a 55% ATS mark (52-43) this season. StatFox Brian is a strong 59% ATS (19-13) in Best Bets since Feb. 6 to put him at 55% ATS (52-42-1) this season, while StatFox Gary has a 55% ATS (52-43) record for the season.

The Mountaineers have been a solid team offensively this season, putting up 73.9 PPG (36th in NCAA) but they’re shooting just 41.2% from the floor (282nd in NCAA). They are also decent on the defensive end, allowing just 66.5 PPG (164th in NCAA) thanks to 10.9 SPG (1st in NCAA). West Virginia will need to play a nearly perfect game on Tuesday, forcing turnovers against Kentucky and also avoiding turning the ball over itself. G Juwan Staten (14.2 PPG, 4.8 APG, 2.8 RPG, 1.1 SPG) will have to play a very good game against the Wildcats in this one. Staten struggled against Maryland, finishing with just six points in 34 minutes of action. He is this team’s most reliable scorer and will need to get his shots to fall in this one. He also has to do a solid job of finding his teammates, as he is this team’s best passer. F Devin Williams (11.6 PPG, 8.2 RPG) has come into his own for the Mountaineers, averaging 17.0 PPG over the past three games. He had 16 points and 10 boards in 32 minutes against Maryland and must be extremely active in the game Thursday. Williams will be battling for rebounds against a big and athletic frontcourt, so he will have to bring some serious intensity to this game. F Jonathan Holton (7.6 PPG, 5.7 RPG, 1.1 SPG) also must have a big game on the glass. Holton had 12 points against Maryland last game, but he has had four or less rebounds in each of the past four games. He will need to be much better in that department in order for his team to have a chance of upsetting Kentucky. G Daxter Miles Jr. (7.5 PPG, 2.3 RPG, 1.1 SPG) is going to be an x-factor for this team. Miles Jr. is on fire recently, averaging 12.0 PPG over the past four contests. He is shooting 50% from three in those games and can really impact this game if he is stretching the floor.

Kentucky has been dominant throughout the course of the entire season, playing flawless basketball on both ends of the court. The Wildcats are allowing just 53.9 PPG (3rd in NCAA) thanks to 6.9 BPG (2nd in NCAA). Defense has been the strength, but they are also very good on offense. Offensively the team is impressive as well, scoring 74.9 PPG (29th in NCAA) on 46.9% shooting (40th in NCAA). The guy that makes this team go is C Willie Cauley-Stein (9.3 PPG, 6.4 RPG, 1.7 BPG). The big man has had 2+ blocks in each of the past five games and has unbelievable athleticism for a player his size. At 7-feet tall, Cauley-Stein runs the floor like a point guard and has very good timing. He’ll serve as a serious source of rim protection in this game and should also have a number of dunks as well. F Karl-Anthony Towns (10.0 PPG, 6.8 RPG, 2.4 BPG) is another big man with big-time shot-blocking ability. Towns has stood out for Kentucky in this tournament, averaging 14.5 PPG, 9.0 RPG and 3.0 BPG over the past two games. He’ll need to continue scoring around the basket in addition to playing the great defense that fans have become accustomed to. In the backcourt, Gs Andrew Harrison (9.2 PPG, 3.6 APG, 2.2 RPG) and Aaron Harrison (11.1 PPG, 1.2 SPG) are the two most consistent contributors. Andrew Harrison is responsible for running this offense. He is a smart player that avoids turnovers and he is capable of knocking down shots when called upon (39% 3PT). Aaron Harrison is this team’s crunch time scorer. He knows how to create his own shot and is not afraid of the big moment. He’ll need to play well in this game or the Wildcats could be upset before the Elite 8. G Devin Booker (10.1 PPG) is going to be an important player in this game. Booker is one of the best shooters in the nation (41% 3PT) and is second on the team in points per game, but he’s scored in double figures just once in the past seven games. He’ll need to find his stroke in this one. Fortunately for the Wildcats, their roster runs nine-deep with players that could start on any other team in the country.

NORTH CAROLINA TAR HEELS (26-11) vs. WISCONSIN BADGERS (33-3)

Staples Center – Los Angeles, CA
NCAA Tournament – Sweet 16
Tip-off: Thursday, 7:45 p.m. ET
Sportsbook.ag Line: Wisconsin -5.0, Total 144

North Carolina and Wisconsin will duke it out Thursday night for a chance to advance to the Elite 8.

North Carolina faced Arkansas in its last game and won 87-78 as a 5-point favorite. The Tar Heels have now won five of their past six games SU and are 4-2 ATS in those contests. Offensively the team is clicking, shooting 45% or better from the floor in each of its past four games.

Wisconsin, meanwhile, beat Oregon 72-65 as a 12.5-point favorite on Sunday. The Badgers have won eight straight games SU and have been excellent offensively as well, scoring 72.0 PPG over the course of the winning streak.

These two teams have met just once in the past five seasons and the Tar Heels won that game 60-57 as 6.5-point home favorites on Nov. 30, 2011. North Carolina is 11-4 ATS after a non-conference game this season.

Wisconsin, meanwhile, is 21-10 ATS after a non-conference game over the past two seasons and 18-9 ATS after two consecutive non-conference games in that time. The Badgers are also 8-0 SU (4-4 ATS) when playing on a neutral court this season.

F Kennedy Meeks (Knee) is 'doubtful' for this game for the Tar Heels, who are already without Fs Desmond Hubert (Knee) and Sasha Seymore (Knee) for the season. G Traevon Jackson (Ankle) is doubtful for Wisconsin, but he is also the only player dealing with an injury for the team.

North Carolina has been one of the best offensive teams in the nation this season, scoring 77.9 PPG (17th in NCAA) on an outstanding 47.5% shooting (27th in NCAA). This team knows how to move the ball (17.7 APG, 2nd in NCAA) and also rebounds very well (41.0 RPG, 2nd in NCAA). The Tar Heels do, however, allow a rather poor 68.6 PPG (239th in NCAA) but a lot of that can be attributed to their preferred pace.

F Kennedy Meeks (11.6 PPG, 7.4 RPG) will need to be healthy if this team is going to advance. Meeks is a talented scorer around the basket and his strength would give Frank Kaminsky a lot of issues on Thursday. If he doesn’t play then his teammates will really need to step it up on the glass.

F Brice Johnson (12.9 PPG, 7.9 RPG, 1.1 BPG) would be the player that is asked to play a bigger role in the rebounding department. Johnson had 13 rebounds and two blocks before fouling out against Arkansas last game. He is very active around the basket on both ends and must stay out of foul trouble in this game, as he can’t foul out if Meeks is going to sit or be less than 100%.

G Marcus Paige (14.1 PPG, 4.5 APG, 1.7 SPG) played one of his better games of the season against the Razorbacks, finishing with 22 points, six rebounds and five steals in 29 minutes of action. Paige got hot from three (3-for-6 3PT) and will need to find a way to find success against a Wisconsin team that knows how to slow the pace of games down. The Badgers did, however, allow Joseph Young to score 30 points last game and that proves that the team can have trouble with quicker guards that can shoot from the outside.

F J.P Tokoto (8.4 PPG, 5.6 RPG, 4.3 APG, 1.5 SPG) continues to stuff the stat sheet for the Tar Heels. He had 13 points, eight assists, five boards and two steals in 26 minutes last game. He’ll need to play a solid game defensively against either Sam Dekker or Nigel Hayes Thursday.

G Justin Jackson (10.6 PPG, 3.7 RPG, 2.3 APG) could really help this team with a solid scoring performance. He is averaging 15.0 PPG in the tournament so far and that type of game would give the team a real chance at upsetting Wisconsin.

Wisconsin has run one of the most efficient offenses in the nation this season, scoring 71.9 PPG (67th in NCAA) on 48.0% shooting (21st in NCAA). The Badgers are also allowing just 56.8 PPG (10th in NCAA), but they prefer to play at a very slow pace and aren’t as good defensively as that number suggests. They can have trouble stopping guards that penetrate the lane and will need to make sure they keep Marcus Paige in line Thursday.

C Frank Kaminsky (18.4 PPG, 8.1 RPG, 2.7 APG, 1.5 BPG) is averaging 21.5 PPG and 9.5 RPG in two games this tournament. He had 16 points and seven boards against Oregon last game, but didn’t play the way he is capable of in that contest. He will really need to make his presence felt inside against North Carolina in this game, especially if Kennedy Meeks is to sit out.

F Sam Dekker (13.3 PPG, 5.4 RPG) has really had an incredible tournament for Wisconsin so far, averaging 18.5 PPG in 34.0 MPG. Dekker went 7-for-16 from the outside in the first two tourney games for the Badgers and has made timely buckets late in games. He is extremely athletic and active around the rim on offense and has been playing solid defensively as well. He’ll need to be ready to perform at a high level once again, as teams are putting more and more emphasis on stopping Kaminsky.

F Nigel Hayes (12.6 PPG, 6.4 RPG, 2.1 APG) has also played very well both inside and outside for Wisconsin. Hayes comes to play every single night and is averaging 17.3 PPG over the past four contests. He is extremely strong once he gets two feet in the paint and he can also knock down jumpers as well as any guard on this team. If he is playing well then there will be less pressure on his teammates to score.

G Bronson Koenig (8.6 PPG, 2.4 APG) had 12 points in 28 minutes against Oregon. Koenig is an excellent outside shooter (41% 3PT) and can also run this offense to perfection despite his low assist numbers. He’ll need to hold his own against Marcus Paige on Thursday and if his previous performances in big games are any indication then he is certainly capable of doing so.

XAVIER MUSKETEERS (23-13) vs. ARIZONA WILDCATS (33-3)

Staples Center – Los Angeles, CA
NCAA Tournament – Sweet 16
Tip-off: Thursday, 10:17 p.m. ET
Sportsbook.ag Line: Arizona -10.5, Total 136

No. 2 seed Arizona looks to keep punishing tournament foes as it faces No. 6 Xavier for the right to go to the Elite Eight.

If it weren’t for Kentucky’s season-long dominance, Arizona’s recent play would be garnering more headlines. Surely for Coach Sean Miller, this isn’t a bad thing. The Wildcats, winners of 13 straight, will enter their game against Xavier as a double-digit favorite for the eighth straight game (5-2 ATS in previous seven). The Wildcats are fresh off of a 73-58 win over Ohio State in the third round, as they held star Buckeye guard, D’Angelo Russell, to nine points on 3-for-19 shooting.

The Musketeers, losers in the Big East conference finals to Villanova, have had the good fortune of facing two double-digit seeds in the NCAA tournament thus far, easing by No. 11 seed Ole Miss and No. 14 Georgia State 76-57 and 75-67 respectively.

The Musketeers did have impressive conference tournament wins over NCAA tournament teams Butler and Georgetown, as they enter this contest as winners of five of their past six (4-2 ATS).

Arizona will be the first non-conference opponent to make the NCAA tournament that Xavier plays this year, and will be the second time all season that the Musketeers are double-digit underdogs (88-75 loss at Villanova as 10-point underdogs on Jan. 14). Xavier is 5-3 SU (5-3 ATS) in neutral sites this season while Arizona is undefeated (8-0 SU) and 4-4 ATS on neutral courts.

Both Arizona and Xavier have had their total hit Under in four of their past five games respectively. The major storyline for the game will revolve around a subplot of coaching mentor versus protégé, as Sean Miller will be coaching against his former team, and former top lieutenant on the bench, Xavier’s Chris Mack.

Miller coached the Musketeers from 2004-2009 and Mack was his top assistant, as the two led Xavier to four NCAA appearances, culminating in one Elite Eight trip in 2008 and a Sweet 16 trip in 2009.

Once Miller left for Arizona, Mack took over at the end of the bench. Mack has led the Musketeers to the NCAA tournament in five of his six seasons as head man, including two Sweet 16 appearances.

Mack is 6-4 overall in the NCAA tournament. Miller, over his tenures at Xavier and Arizona has compiled a 16-7 overall NCAA tournament resume (8-3 at Arizona) and has reached the Sweet 16 in three straight seasons (and Elite Eight in two of the past three seasons. Miller’s three tournament losses at Arizona have all been by three points or less.

Five Xavier players average over 8.5 points per game, as Coach Mack has a solid eight-man rotation with a good mix of size, athleticism and experience. Only one Musketeer - G Dee Davis (8.5 PPG, 6.1 APG, 32 MPG) - plays 30+ minutes per game. Playing Arizona presents myriad problems, but chief of Mack’s concerns should be keeping the Wildcats off the glass, as Arizona (+9.5 reb margin, 2nd in NCAA) has upped that to a +12 rebounding margin over its past five games. X

avier is very good at keeping opponents off the glass (30.9 RPG allowed, 39th in NCAA), as it always helps to shoot 68% from the field, as it did in its win on Saturday versus Georgia State (in the process, allowing only 12 rebounds). Xavier’s total rebounding numbers are mediocre, but its strong defensive rebounding contributes to a rebounding margin that’s 60th in the country. Xavier’s overall profile from the field (47.7% FG, 22nd in NCAA) shows that the performance versus Georgia State on offense wasn’t completely out of the blue.

The Musketeers balanced offense shares the ball (16.3 APG, 9th in NCAA) and doesn’t turn it over (1.35 A:TO, 23rd in NCAA). Xavier hadn’t profiled as a team reliant on beating you with the three in the regular season (35.6% 3PT, 118th in NCAA) but its two NCAA tournament wins have been a different story, as the team has gone 17-for-36 from downtown.

Leading the long range efforts have been Davis (5-for-10 3PT) scoring 15 and 17 points respectively and fellow G Myles Davis (10.7 PPG) – no relation – who broke out of a 1-for-12 slump from long range going into the tournament to hit seven of his past 13 threes (including going 5-for-8 in the win over Georgia State). Xavier is led in scoring by senior C Matt Stainbrook (12.0 PPG, 6.8 RPG, 2.4 APG), who is very adept at finding the open man on offense from the high post.

The ever-inconsistent F Trevon Bluitt (11.7 PPG) would be very helpful to have contribute versus Arizona, as he’s scored only seven points over two games so far. F Jalen Reynolds (9.6 PPG, 6.2 RPG) scored 21 points on 8-for-9 shooting from the field versus Georgia State and has the size and athleticism to match Arizona’s length inside, if he can stay out of foul trouble.

Given how well Arizona is playing as of late, the Wildcats won’t be fazed by Xavier’s defensive profile (191st in NCAA in points allowed). If Arizona is to struggle versus Xavier, it’ll be its own doing, as Xavier is excellent at drawing fouls (20.2 per game, 32nd in NCAA). Of course, Arizona profiles as even better, at 20.9 fouls drawn per game (12th in NCAA), but if F Brandon Ashley (12.3 PPG, 5.4 RPG, 51% FG), F Rondae Hollis-Jefferson (10.9 PPG, 6.8 RPG), F Stanley Johnson (14.4 PPG, 6.6 RPG) or C Kaleb Tarczewski (9.0 PPG, 5.1 RPG) were to find themselves in foul trouble, they’d arguably be worse-equipped to deal with the depth drop-off than Xavier, as only one bench player for the Wildcats sees significant minutes (G Gabe York – 9.1 PPG, 22.0 MPG).

Given the way G T.J. McConnell (9.8 PPG, 6.4 APG, 2.1 SPG) has been playing recently, though, one gets the feeling that he’ll be able to will this club far past this round. McConnell has put on a show through two rounds so far, filling the stat sheet with 31 points, 10 rebounds, 10 assists and nine steals in total thus far. Even more impressive, as a 6-foot-1 point guard, McConnell is shooting 13-for-21 from the field.

While Arizona doesn’t light it up from the perimeter, York (the aforementioned sixth man) can be a big weapon for the Wildcats, as he hit for 21 points (5-for-9 from three) in their most recent win over Ohio State. Hollis-Jefferson has quietly put up two straight double-doubles (points and rebounds) for the Wildcats, who will need more from their star freshman, Johnson, who went just 1-for-12 from the field versus Ohio State in the third round.

WEST VIRGINIA MOUNTAINEERS (25-9) vs. KENTUCKY WILDCATS (36-0)

Quicken Loans Arena – Cleveland, OH
NCAA Tournament – Sweet 16
Tip-off: Thursday, 9:45 p.m. ET
Sportsbook.ag Line: Kentucky -13.5, Total 136.5

Kentucky looks to stay perfect and advance to the Elite 8 with a win over West Virginia Thursday.

West Virginia faced Maryland in the last round of this tournament and won 69-59 as a 1.5-point favorite. The Mountaineers have now won-and-covered in two straight games and three of their past four. They have also covered in seven of their past nine games.

Kentucky, meanwhile, defeated Cincinnati 64-51 as a 16-point favorite last round. The Wildcats obviously come into this game after having won 36 games in a row SU. They have held their past nine opponents under 70 points and have only allowed their opponent to shoot over 40% from the field in four of their past 10 games. The Wildcats know how to make their opponent uncomfortable and they’ll look to do the same against West Virginia Thursday.

These teams have met four times since 1997 and Kentucky has gone 3-1 both SU and ATS in those games. The one West Virginia victory will hold significance though, as it was a Mountaineers 73-66 upset over John Wall and DeMarcus Cousins’ then 35-2 Kentucky team in 2010. That John Calipari team was considered one of the best he ever coached, so Bob Huggins will draw motivation from that upset for this year’s bunch.

West Virginia is 12-3 ATS when seeded 5 to 8 in the NCAA tournament since 1997 and 19-5 ATS overall in the tournament since then as well. Kentucky, meanwhile, is 84-58 ATS off a no-cover where the team won straight up as a favorite since 1997.

F Kevin Noreen (Undisclosed) is out indefinitely for the Mountaineers and F Alex Poythress (Knee) is out for the season for the Wildcats.

The Mountaineers have been a solid team offensively this season, putting up 73.9 PPG (36th in NCAA) but they’re shooting just 41.2% from the floor (282nd in NCAA). They are also decent on the defensive end, allowing just 66.5 PPG (164th in NCAA) thanks to 10.9 SPG (1st in NCAA). West Virginia will need to play a nearly perfect game on Tuesday, forcing turnovers against Kentucky and also avoiding turning the ball over itself.

G Juwan Staten (14.2 PPG, 4.8 APG, 2.8 RPG, 1.1 SPG) will have to play a very good game against the Wildcats in this one. Staten struggled against Maryland, finishing with just six points in 34 minutes of action. He is this team’s most reliable scorer and will need to get his shots to fall in this one. He also has to do a solid job of finding his teammates, as he is this team’s best passer.

F Devin Williams (11.6 PPG, 8.2 RPG) has come into his own for the Mountaineers, averaging 17.0 PPG over the past three games. He had 16 points and 10 boards in 32 minutes against Maryland and must be extremely active in the game Thursday. Williams will be battling for rebounds against a big and athletic frontcourt, so he will have to bring some serious intensity to this game.

F Jonathan Holton (7.6 PPG, 5.7 RPG, 1.1 SPG) also must have a big game on the glass. Holton had 12 points against Maryland last game, but he has had four or less rebounds in each of the past four games. He will need to be much better in that department in order for his team to have a chance of upsetting Kentucky.

G Daxter Miles Jr. (7.5 PPG, 2.3 RPG, 1.1 SPG) is going to be an x-factor for this team. Miles Jr. is on fire recently, averaging 12.0 PPG over the past four contests. He is shooting 50% from three in those games and can really impact this game if he is stretching the floor.

Kentucky has been dominant throughout the course of the entire season, playing flawless basketball on both ends of the court. The Wildcats are allowing just 53.9 PPG (3rd in NCAA) thanks to 6.9 BPG (2nd in NCAA). Defense has been the strength, but they are also very good on offense. Offensively the team is impressive as well, scoring 74.9 PPG (29th in NCAA) on 46.9% shooting (40th in NCAA).

The guy that makes this team go is C Willie Cauley-Stein (9.3 PPG, 6.4 RPG, 1.7 BPG). The big man has had 2+ blocks in each of the past five games and has unbelievable athleticism for a player his size. At 7-feet tall, Cauley-Stein runs the floor like a point guard and has very good timing. He’ll serve as a serious source of rim protection in this game and should also have a number of dunks as well.

F Karl-Anthony Towns (10.0 PPG, 6.8 RPG, 2.4 BPG) is another big man with big-time shot-blocking ability. Towns has stood out for Kentucky in this tournament, averaging 14.5 PPG, 9.0 RPG and 3.0 BPG over the past two games. He’ll need to continue scoring around the basket in addition to playing the great defense that fans have become accustomed to.

In the backcourt, Gs Andrew Harrison (9.2 PPG, 3.6 APG, 2.2 RPG) and Aaron Harrison (11.1 PPG, 1.2 SPG) are the two most consistent contributors. Andrew Harrison is responsible for running this offense. He is a smart player that avoids turnovers and he is capable of knocking down shots when called upon (39% 3PT). Aaron Harrison is this team’s crunch time scorer. He knows how to create his own shot and is not afraid of the big moment. He’ll need to play well in this game or the Wildcats could be upset before the Elite 8.

G Devin Booker (10.1 PPG) is going to be an important player in this game. Booker is one of the best shooters in the nation (41% 3PT) and is second on the team in points per game, but he’s scored in double figures just once in the past seven games. He’ll need to find his stroke in this one. Fortunately for the Wildcats, their roster runs nine-deep with players that could start on any other team in the country.

Check out more NCAA Tournament Odds and Props at Sportsbook.ag!

College Basketball : Streaks, Tips, Notes
Sportspic.com

West Virginia vs Kentucky

Kentucky's chase for perfection continues Thursday as Cali's Cats reeling off thirty-six straight victories look to 'Dance' past West Virginia while punching a ticket to the Elite-Eight for the 7th time since the 2002-03 campaign. Wildcats are an effective offensive team netting 74.7 points/game but their strength comes at the defensive end with it's third-ranked scoring defense (53.9 PPG) and top ranked field-goal defense (35.1%). As for Mountaineers, its been a struggle putting the ball in the basket as they're averaging 68.5 PPG in the Tournament and have topped 70 points just four times the past 13 on the hardwood. However, coach Huggins' troops with its trapping defense will be a scary matchup for Wildcats as Mountaineers force opponents to turn the ball over an average 19.5 per game and they lead the nation with 10.0 steals per/game. These two have met twice recently in Tournament play. Mountaineers upended Wildcats in the 2010 Elite-Eight with Kentucky getting revenge the following season defeating West Virginia in the round of 32. When handicapping this contest a few betting nuggets to consider. Although #1-seeds are 11-3 SU in this round facing a #5-seed they're just 5-8-1 ATS, 0-2 ATS laying double digits. Kentucky has won six consecutive in this round (5-1 ATS) including three as a #1 seed (2-1 ATS). West Virginia has a 2-2 SU stretch in Sweet 16 play with a 3-1 ATS mark against the betting line.

Sweet 16 - West Regional
By David Schwab
VegasInsider.com

The West Region of this season’s NCAA Tournament has pretty much gone chalk with three of the top four seeds advancing to the Sweet 16 Round. This Thursday at the Staples Center, two of those four teams will take the next step towards winning this region and a spot in this year’s Final Four.

Odds to win NCAA Tournament West Regional - Sportsbook.ag

Arizona 5/6
Wisconsin 8/5
North Carolina 7/1
Xavier 20/1

No. 4 North Carolina vs. No. 1 Wisconsin

Venue: Staples Center
Location: Los Angeles, CA
Betting Odds: Wisconsin -6½, Total 144

The Tar Heels are perennial threats to go deep in this tournament and they punched their ticket to this year’s Sweet 16 with a tight 67-65 victory against No.13 Harvard as 10-point favorites in their opener followed by last Saturday’s 87-78 victory against No. 5 Arkansas as five-point favorites. North Carolina is now 5-1 straight-up in its last six games while going 4-2 against the spread. The total has gone OVER in three of its last four games.

Freshman guard/forward Justin Jackson was the hero against the Crimson with four of his team-high 14 points sealing the win after the Tar Heels led by as many as 16 points in that game. It was junior guard Marcus Paige’s turn to carry the load against the Razorbacks as he has done all season long with 22 points, six rebounds and five steals to help pace that victory. On an injury note, starting forward Kennedy Meeks remains 'doubtful' for Thursday with bad knee.

The top seed in the West, Wisconsin won its first two games against No. 16 Coastal Carolina and No. 8 Oregon by a combined 21 points but it could not cover a double-digit spread in either contest. The Badgers have just one SU loss in their last 19 games, but they are only 8-10-1 ATS during this same stretch.

Much of the credit for Wisconsin’s success this season has to go to the elevated play of senior forward Frank Kaminsky. He scored 27 points in his tournament opener while pulling down 12 rebounds and in his next time out against the Ducks he scored 16 points with seven boards. The Badgers are averaging 71.9 points per game, but their primary strength still lies in a defense that is holding opponents to just 56.8 PPG.

Betting Trends:

The Tar Heels have failed to cover in four of their last five NCAA Tournament games and the total has gone OVER in 15 of their last 21 games played at a neutral site.

The Badgers are 7-3-1 ATS in their last 11 games in the NCAA Tournament and the total has stayed UNDER in nine of their last 13 games following a SU win.

These two last met 2011 with North Carolina coming away with a 60-57 victory, but with Wisconsin covering as a seven-point road underdog.

No. 6 Xavier Musketeers vs. No. 2 Arizona Wildcats

Venue: Staples Center
Location: Los Angeles, CA
Betting Odds: Arizona -10½, Total 135½

The prospect for a deep run by Xavier did not look too good after getting blown-out by Villanova by 17 points in the Big East Tournament Final, but it has gotten the job done so far with convincing wins (SU and ATS) over No. 11 Ole Miss and No. 14 Georgia State in this tournament. The Musketeers are now 4-1 ATS in their last five games with total staying UNDER in four of those contests.

The big man in the middle of Xavier’s lineup is senior center Matt Stainbrook. He has combined for 29 points, 17 rebounds and seven assists in his first two tournament games. Sophomore forward Jalen Reynolds had the hot hand against Georgia State with 21 of the Musketeers’ 75 points in the eight-point victory. Overall, Xavier is averaging 73.6 PPG and shooting 47.3 percent from the field.

Arizona has been on a major roll that dates back to mid-February with a SU 13-game winning streak while going a profitable 10-3 ATS. The Wildcats failed to cover against No. 15 Texas Southern in their tournament opener in a 93-72 romp as 23 ½-point favorites, but they covered a 10-point spread in this past Saturday’s 73-58 victory against No. 10 Ohio State. The total has stayed UNDER in four of their last five games.

The Wildcats have averaged 82.7 PPG in their last seven outings while holding teams to 60.9 points at the other end of the court. On the season, they are ranked sixth in the nation shooting the ball with a 48.9 field goal percentage. Arizona’s leading scorer this season with 14 PPG has been freshman forward Stanley Johnson, but he was held to just four points against the Buckeyes. In his place, junior guard led the way in that game with a team-high 19 points.

Betting Trends:

The Musketeers are 19-5-2 ATS in their last 26 NCAA Tournament games and the total has stayed UNDER in five of their last six neutral-site games.

The Wildcats are 14-4 ATS in their last 18 games following a SU win and the total has gone OVER in seven of their last 10 games against a team from the Big East.

Sweet 16 - Midwest Regional
By Brian Edwards
VegasInsider.com

No. 3 Notre Dame vs. No. 7 Wichita St.

Venue: Quicken Loans Arena
Location: Cleveland, OH.
Betting Odds: Wichita St. -2, Total: 137.5

Wichita State (30-4 straight up, 17-14-1 against the spread) advanced to the Sweet 16 by virtue of comeback wins over Indiana and Kansas. In the opening-round victory over the Hoosiers, Fred VanVleet erupted for 27 points, two steals and four assists compared to only one turnover. Ron Baker overcame a cold shooting night (3-13 FGs, 0-5 3PFGs) to contribute 15 points, five rebounds, five steals and a pair of assists.

Gregg Marshall's squad got its dream matchup in the Round of 32. Kansas has been refusing to play its in-state rival during the regular season for years, but the Jayhawks had no choice last weekend. After falling behind early, the Shockers rallied late in the first half to take the lead going into intermission. They would pull away in the second half for a 78-65 triumph as one-point 'chalk.' Tekele Cotton led the way with 19 and 17 points, respectively. VanVleet also had six rebounds, six assists and four steals.

Notre Dame (31-5 SU, 15-13 ATS) has won seven in a row, including a road win at Louisville and neutral-court victories over Duke, North Carolina and Butler. Mike Brey's team is 5-2 ATS during its seven-game surge. The Irish advanced to the Sweet 16 for the first time since 2003 thanks to wins over Northeastern (69-65) and Butler (67-64).

After surviving a late run by Northeastern to move into the Round of 32, Notre Dame needed overtime to slip past Butler by a 67-64 count as a 3.5-point favorite. Steve Vasturia, who scored a career-high 20 points, drained a 3-pointer at the shot-clock buzzer to put his team up 65-61 with 1:21 left in the extra session. Jerian Grant put the game away with a lefty layup with 18.2 ticks left for a 67-62 cushion. Grant tallied 16 points, five rebounds and five assists, while Demetrious Jackson was also in double figures with 13 points.

Notre Dame has been an underdog seven times, compiling a 5-2 record both SU and ATS.

Wichita State has been a single-digit 'chalk' 11 times, going 7-4 versus the number.

The 'over' has hit in three straight for the Shockers to improve to 17-13 overall.

Totals have been an overall wash (13-13) for the Irish, but we should note that the 'under' is on a 4-1 run in their last five outings.

No. 1 Kentucky vs. No. 5 West Virginia

Venue: Quicken Loans Arena
Location: Cleveland, OH.
Betting Odds: Kentucky -13.5, Total: 136.5

Kentucky (36-0 SU, 18-16-2 ATS) rolled to a 79-56 win over Hampton in its first-round game at the KFC Yum! Center in Louisville. The Wildcats led by 30 at the under-16 timeout in the second half, but they only moved ahead of the number twice (63-28 and 67-32). The Pirates were able to comfortably cover the spread as 34-point underdogs. The 135 combined points slipped 'over' the 134.5-point total thanks to Lawrence Cooks' back-to-back free throws for Hampton with 50 seconds remaining.

Karl Anthony-Towns led the way against Hampton with 21 points, 11 rebounds and three blocked shots. Andrew Harrison added 14 points, four rebounds and three assists without a turnover.

John Calipari's team got a tough test from Cincinnati for 30 minutes before creating some separation, but the Bearcats nonetheless took the cash as 14.5-point underdogs. UK got beaten on the boards by a 45-38 margin and Cincy had 21 offensive rebounds compared to only 12 for the 'Cats. Aaron Harrison hit three treys and scored a team-best 13 points. Trey Lyles finished with 11 points, 11 rebounds and a pair of blocked shots.

West Va. advanced to the Sweet 16 with victories over Buffalo (68-62 as a 4.5-point 'chalk') and Maryland. The Mountaineers got past the Terrapins 69-59 as one-point favorites. Devin Williams paced WVU with 16 points and 10 boards, while Gary Browne had 14 points and five steals in just 20 minutes of playing time. Browne, who missed the regular-season finale and the Big 12 Tournament with an injury, knocked down 3-of-4 from long distance.

West Va. (25-9 SU, 19-13 ATS) doesn't shoot particularly well from the field (41.2%) or 3-point land (32.0%), but it uses a relentless full-court press that forces more turnovers than any other team in America.

The win over Maryland was a vintage one for this year's Mountaineers. Bob Huggins explained, "We get 16 more shots than what they get. That's what we have to do. We have to get more shots. We shot 36 percent in the first half. They shot 55. And we led by one. Because we get more shots. That's what we are."

West Va. owns a 6-5 spread record with five outright wins in 11 games as an underdog. This is the Mountaineers' richest spot as underdogs. In their biggest previous situation, they covered the spread at Kansas as 9.5-point 'dogs.

West Va. freshman guard Daxter Miles Jr. provided bulletin-board material for top-ranked UK when speaking with the media Wednesday. Miles said, "I give them their props. Salute them to getting to 36-0. But tomorrow they're gonna be 36-1." Miles added that the Cats "don't play hard."

WVU star guard Juwan Staten missed four straight games (foot) coming into the NCAA Tournament. However, he returned in style in the win over the Bulls by tallying 15 points and seven assists. Williams added 17 points and nine rebounds.

Calipari has won 20 of 23 NCAA Tournament games since arriving at Kentucky. However, one of those defeats came to West Va. in the 2010 East Region finals at the Carrier Dome in Syracuse. Joe Mazzulla exploded for a career-best 17 points to lead WVU to a 73-66 win as a four-point underdog.

Among coaches who have faced Calipari at least 10 times, only Huggins and Mike Jarvis own winning records. Huggins has the best record by far at 8-2, while Jarvis went 8-7 vs. Cal.

The 'under' is 21-15 overall for UK, cashing in four of its last six games. The 'Cats lead the nation in field-goal percentage defense (35.0%) and they're third in the country in scoring defense (53.2 PPG).

The 'over' is 14-12-1 overall for WVU, but it saw the 'under' cash in back-to-back games last weekend.

Odds to win Midwest Regional - Sportsbook.ag

Kentucky 2/11
Notre Dame 7/1
Wichita State 15/2
West Virginia 20/1

News & Notes for Thursday
By Ken Pomeroy
Nropp.com

#1 Kentucky vs #5 West Virginia

It’s probably not a surprise to anyone that Kentucky has made it to the round of 16. The best defense in the country has limited opponents to just 0.75 and 0.82 points per possession in their two opening weekend games, while the offense has struggled to a less than stellar 1.05/1.03 in those games. It hasn’t really mattered, and is reminiscent of 2012, where Kentucky looked as if they’re going through the motions and then BAM, they drop 100+ on Indiana and roll to the Title. You’re going to hear a lot of Huggins being 8-2 against Calipari in his career, but he was favored in 7 of those games and the majority came during Calipari’s rebuilding years at Umass and Memphis. The last time Huggins beat Calipari was a few years ago in the tournament when WVU rattled off like eight straight three’s, and Kentucky missed their first 20 three’s. If that game is any indication, there is a really good chance Huggins squad just sags and forces Kentucky to beat them from the perimeter. Obviously, the key in this game is how well or poor Kentucky handles WVU’s pressure. The Wildcats have hardly seen any pressure this year, which would be a cause for concern. Yes, they played Arkansas twice, but comparing Arkansas’ base pressure against WVU’s pressure where they bring it from all different angles is like comparing apples to oranges. It’s amazing to see the kind of transformation that West Virginia has undergone in the past few seasons. In large part, the past few years under Huggins, the Mountaineers have been a team that can compete offensively, but they’ve struggled to stop teams from scoring. Seeing a need to change that, Huggins brought in a bunch of athletic and quick guards and completely transformed the WVU roster into one that is going to run and press and get in your face and bring pressure from all these different angles and basically has formed this Havoc 2.0 and it’s done just that...wreaked havoc. If you look at the Mountaineers season, practically every team that saw the pressure for the first time struggled against it. They lost the majority of their games the 2nd time around the Big 12 schedule, but now that we’re in the tournament, we’re getting a glimpse at just how good this pressure can be. Against two teams that are usually great at taking care of the basketball, they forced a combined 40 turnovers in the first weekend of the tournament. Now, this comes with an asterisk, largely because Maryland was forced to play half a game with Trimble on the bench, but it is what it is. Offensively, WVU has been nothing special. Their offense has been a product of those 40 extra turnovers they’ve been able to capitalize on. In the event that Kentucky doesn’t handle the pressure that well, I still don’t think it matters. If you’ve followed Calipari throughout the years, he’s been a coach that has opted to bring a big up on the press to alleviate the pressure. This solves two major things and gives them two advantages within the game. One, the bigs hit a tall streaking guard down the sideline where they can make a play, and two, there is always a big back to protect the rim in the event of a turnover. There isn’t a team that is more reliant on scoring with their transition and turnover-forcing than West Virginia, and Cal is likely to take that away by bringing the bigs up to combat the pressure. Gimmicks can work your way into the Sweet 16, but it’s rare they get you any farther, particularly against a team that has numerous options to adjust everywhere like Kentucky does. Likewise, there just isn’t much hope for WVU in the half-court in this game. Kentucky’s size forces teams into shots they simply don’t want to take, and if you’ve watched WVU this year, they’re not the best at converting on long-range jumpers. Simply put, WVU must force turnovers, but more importantly, they must CONVERT off of those turnovers to stay competitive here, and that’s the big issue I have with them, particularly if Calipari sticks with the trend of bringing a big up to help on the pressure. As I’ve been saying all year, and for some odd reason the majority of the world can’t grasp this, is the fact that you have to have bigs that can bang with Kentucky to beat them. You have to be physical with them. You have to take it at them, and you have to make them work. WVU just doesn’t qualify. Everyone focuses on WVU’s defense, which again, is the essential to this game, but their ability to CONVERT on those opportunities and their ability to score in the half-court is what will tell the story in the end.

Zzzzinger: West Virginia has allowed an average of 1.35 points per possession on the occassions they have not forced a turnover in two tournament games.

#3 Notre Dame vs #7 Wichita State

When you think of Notre Dame basketball over the years, the first thing that probably comes to mind is their ability to shoot the three-ball. For the most part, they’ve been pretty good at doing so. Unfortunately, it’s usually been there downfall come March when they’re up against a team that limits those three-point attempts, and ultimately the reason they’ve been less than successful come tournament time in the past. This year, however, the roster is setup so much differently, and you don’t really need to look further than their first two games in this tournament to explain why it is differently. In their opener against Northeastern, the Huskies really took away that three-point line, and Notre Dame made just two three’s in the game. Did it matter? Nope. Why? Because Notre Dame has guards that can attack and find the open man down low. In their second game against Butler, again, a team who likes to run teams off the perimeter, Notre Dame still survived. Why? Because Notre Dame has other options - those same guards that can attack and find the open man. If you’ve watched Notre Dame this year, you’ve likely come away with the thought that the offense is a thing of beauty. It’s a thing of beauty because they basically have two PG’s on the court at all times with Grant and Jackson, and they’re surrounded in large part by a ton of guys who can flame-throw it. They had plenty of success in the conference this year, which included a tournament title beating Duke and Carolina back-to-back, but that success is predicated on one thing - and we’ll get to that in a minute. Wichita State enters their Sweet 16 matchup on an extremely high note, taking down both Indiana and Kansas to reach this point. I think the major question with the Shockers - and we’re unlikely to know the answer until Thursday - is just how much the win over Kansas meant to this team. If you followed the post-game, and read and watched all the publicity for accomplishing the feat, it sure seemed like Wichita had accomplished their tallest task of the year - they finally beat Big Bro. How they react and focus on the future will be important. In terms of the matchup, I’d much more like to focus on the Notre Dame offense against the Wichita State defense. As I mentioned before, Notre Dame has had major success this year, but I think a lot of that can be attributed to their offense. They haven’t played many teams that look to take away the three-ball AND can slow you down on the interior. When you look at the ACC, you have a really diverse set of defenses. Duke’s going to limit your three’s, but they can’t stop anyone inside, which is why you see Notre Dame have the success they did against them. North Carolina’s going to protect the paint, but their guards have no interest in defending jumpers out front - which is why you saw Notre Dame have the success they did on them. Teams like Virginia, Pitt, and NC State, who do a bit of both, the Fighting Irish really struggled with (same with Providence in the non-conference). Wichita State will be the toughest test defensively that Notre Dame has seen all year. Not because of stats, not because of the players on the court, but because of scheme. They don’t let teams beat them from behind the perimeter, and they make it extremely tough for teams to score on the inside of them, and then you combine that with the fact that they just don't let you score in transition. They’re a complete defense, and a few of Notre Dame’s advantages such as spreading the court and either a) going after the three or b) attacking the inside are really taken away in this matchup. There are other things within the matchup that are semi-important. How does Notre Dame defend? Man or zone? More than likely a mixture depending on how the game plays out, but it’s important to point out that Notre Dame’s the worst defense (by ratings) left in the field. Will Notre Dame’s lack of depth catch up to them? They’re on a slippery slope in this game with all of the Wichita attacking, and Wichita’s relentless ability to hammer the ball inside if they need to. Teams with no depth have no options, and teams with no options rarely get past this point come March. In the end, I really just think it boils down to Brey’s ability to find somehow, somewhere to score. He’s the type of coach that attacks the gameplan and says we’re either going to score by doing this, or we’re going to score by doing that. And his three options as far as what he wants to do, are essentially, taken away if Wichita State shows up with the same focus they brought the first weekend.

Zzzzinger: Notre Dame enters this game as the nation's 10th best transition offense with an eFG% of 63.5%...but Wichita leads the country in limiting transition opportunities as it occurs just 16.5% of the time in the duration of their games.

#2 Arizona vs #6 Xavier

Xavier’s run to the Sweet 16 has been a bit minimized by most. They drew a couple favorable opponents, a Mississippi team that was on short rest and then a #14 seed in Georgia State. Both defenses went zone and both defenses struggled to contain Xavier in that zone because of all the options Xavier has on the offensive side of the ball. Needless to say, Xavier looked really good as they have on most zones they’ve faced throughout the course of the season. Mack really transformed the offense this year. A once reliant-attacking team became a team that still attacks, but also looks for spot up jumpers off of those attacks now. It’s the one thing that really sticks out with Xavier and their success this season. They basically bring Stainbrook out to the top of the key and allow him to operate the offense and find whichever mismatches they can get. I think Mack’s always been this way, but it’s showed with their efficiency this year and the health of Stainbrook within the offense has been the key. As expected, Arizona has also entered the Sweet 16 with two somewhat easy victories. They’ve been on a tear for the better part of the past month and a half. A team that struggled at times to generate offense last year, really isn’t struggling at all to generate offense this year. McConnell’s been playing out of his mind, and the Wildcats have more than enough to make a deeper run it would appear. In terms of scheme and style, it’s really hard to see Xavier being competitive in this one. Yes, it’s coach on mentor, and all of that other stuff - it should be familiar to everyone that these coaches know what the other is going to do and they’ll try their best to stop it. But, it should also be pointed out that one of these teams likely doesn’t have the talent it needs to stop the other and that is likely Xavier. The biggest quality in regards to Xavier’s success this year, as I alluded to earlier, is Mack’s ability to change on both offense and defense. Offensively, they’ll always have the ability to attack with Davis running the show, and with Bluiett and Davis on the wings. If teams sag, as I’ve mentioned, they now have the ability to knock down some shots, and/or bring Stainbrook out to open up the lane, and open up other avenues of scoring. Everything Xavier will focus on offensively within this game probably relies on them getting Arizona’s bigs as far away from the basket as they can. Defensively, Xavier is ever-changing. If you’re strength is getting the ball inside, they’ll make it a point to stop it. Look at Georgetown for instance. Georgetown breaks down Xavier on film, finds ways to score inside on Xavier, and Mack totally switches it up and they shut Georgetown down. This whole coaching tree is no different. They’re going to think you have them scouted and they’ll switch it up, and if you don’t have the personnel to aim at something different, you’re going to struggle. Teams that Xavier struggled with this year did have the experience, and did have the options to switch it up. So, where’s the advantage here for Xavier? I’m just not sure. You can try and bring Tarczewski or Ashley or Hollis-Jefferson or Ristic or whoever Zona is playing at the big spot out of the lane, but they just have so much size and so many inter-changing parts that I’m not sure it matters. With as much as Stainbrook is able to find the open man, or find the mismatch and how good he is at doing just that, the task now just becomes so much harder because of all this size. If Xavier has any sort of advantage, it’s probably in the attacking department, but attacking on size and finishing on that size over the course of 40 minutes are two totally different things. Defensively, I’m not sure what Xavier looks to take away. Gun to head, they play this really sagging style and force Arizona jumpers, which has been the method to beating Zona dating back to last year, it’s just that Arizona’s crushed these types over the course of the past month. All in all, this could, and likely will be an entertaining game if not from the standpoint of points being scored, then from the standpoint of these coaches going back and forth trying to one-up the other in a game’s result that will be heavily weighted on who can trump the other’s scheme.

Zzzzinger: Arizona is just 10-12 under Sean Miller in games played in Southern California (Conference, Conference Tournament, NCAA Tournament).

#1 Wisconsin vs #4 North Carolina

I feel as if this matchup would be more appropriate if it was a #2 versus a #3 instead of a #1 versus a #4, but more on that in a bit. For the second straight year, the Badgers defeated Oregon in the second round and have advanced to the Sweet 16. And, just like last season, the Badgers are doing it with an offense that has performed far better than its defense. Through two games this season, the Badgers have yielded 1.07 and 1.14 points per possession, but it’s not a topic because the offense has posted totals of 1.37 and 1.18 in those same two games. The reason has been the three-point shooting and how many they’re hoisting. In the two games in the tournament, Wisconsin has attempted 62 two-pointers and whopping 50 three-pointers a big reason as to why Wisconsin enters the Sweet 16 as the tournament’s most efficient team remaining. North Carolina is back in the Sweet 16 for the first time in a few years, but they’ve done it in an entirely different manner than Wisconsin. Through their own two games in the tournament, the Tar Heels have only attempted 17 three-point shots, while getting up an astonishing 92...yes...92!....two-pointers. Thus, we it would appear we have a classic two against three in this game. Will North Carolina’s effectiveness at getting up easy two point shots be enough to overcome Wisconsin’s effectiveness of making long three’s? It’s a really tough matchup to consider because of the extra elements, but let’s take a look. If you’ve seen North Carolina play, not much has changed this year from previous seasons under Roy Williams. They want to push the tempo, they want to get as close to the rim as possible, they’re going to grab a good chunk of their misses, and the offense is usually going to put up some points because of all of this. Defensively, the Tar Heels throw out enough size and usually force opponents to shoot jumpers which is the issue here. Actually, I think the issue isn’t really the fact that they give up a ton of jumpers. The bigger issue, and I’ve brought this up time and time and time and time again, is that the guards are just so much more willing to get out and run offensively that their ability to guard and defend in the half-court has been virtually non-existent. They want to force a jumper, they want the bigs to rebound the jumper, and the transition offense is put to full use almost immediately. Case in point, herein lies the problem against Wisconsin. UNC played around 10 teams this year who really focus their offense around the three-point shot. In those 10 games, North Carolina yielded an average of 25.6 three-point attempts, which is borderline absurd. You give Wisconsin - the #1 most efficient offense in the country - that many attempts from out there, and it’s probably going to be a long night. At the same time, it’s likely what North Carolina is going to do. Forcing Wisconsin into those long shots keeps Kaminsky away from the game plan, at least down low, which in effect also keeps Kaminsky out of the paint, which in effect allows Carolina to run a bit more, but really exposes the Carolina bigs having to shade Kaminsky out front. On the flip side, where Wisconsin has given up the majority of their points also benefits North Carolina. Everything Wisconsin does from a defensive standpoint is designed upon keeping the guards in front of you and forcing them to attack, forcing them into gaps that are covered up and forcing into places where they want you to go - in essence - they don’t allow you to shoot three’s. Believe it or not, North Carolina is perfectly OK with this, and Roy’s going to make it a point to go in down low. I think this game is also more than just the 3’s versus the 2’s...it’s also a game of speed. If North Carolina can force the early jumpers, they’re doing their job, because the speed of this game will be fast, a style of play in which they benefit greatly. I really think all of the pressure is on Wisconsin in this one. They have to play slow. They have to be patient on offense, they have to work the ball down low, they have to get something going on in the interior to open up that outside game or they’re just settling. Against Oregon, they showed that patience, and they settled, and had a poor shooting night. Will that happen again? Not sure. The 3’s on one end, against the 2’s on the other. The team that wants to play fast and has to play fast for success, against the team that wants to play slow and likely needs to keep this one slow to succeed. These games are tough to project, but offer a good amount of entertainment value. Side note: Meeks is semi-important in this game, if not for having his rebounding and defensive ability down low, then just for the simple fact that it gives Roy another body to throw at Kaminsky.

Zzzzinger: North Carolina averaged 1.17 points per possession this year on teams who fall in the bottom half of the country in forcing turnovers, where Wisconsin ranks #317.