NCAA Preview
Last nine Western Kentucky games were decided by 7 or less points, as Hilltoppers won last seven, winning Sun Belt tourney even though they were #7 seed. Five of eight guys in Western's rotation are freshmen; the coach got fired in December, but new coach is older guy who won pair of national titles in NAIA. Mississippi Valley is coached by Sean Woods, a Pitino disciple; Delta Devils run/press- they overcheduled in preseason, playing five top 40 teams. Valley is 20-1 in league, 1-11 outside. SWAC are teams are 1-4 in play-in games, losing by 8-10-15-9 points. UALR of Sun Belt lost play-in game LY, first time Sun Belt team had been in one.
Over last nine years, WCC teams are 2-7 vs spread as tourney favorite; MAAC teams are 5-7 as underdogs, losing first game last two years by 8-22 points. WCC teams are 9-5 SU in first round games, even though they were underdog in 10 of the 14 games. Iona is small but plays fast; they're #12 in experience, and went over month without home game this season, so playing away from home not a problem, especially after they got reprieve with surprising bid to this event. BYU is 2-6 this season vs top 70 teams, but are 7-2 last nine games, with both losses to Gonzaga. Before last two Jimmer-led seasons, BYU had been 0-5 in NCAAs.
Other Three Tournaments
I'm not going to waste lot of time doing long write-ups on these other tournaments, but I'll give you a little on each game. No one knows how these teams will approach these games, including the coaches, since no one wants to be there, they all wanted to be in the NCAAs.
UMass @ Miss State-- UMass is young team that will run up/down all night. Over last two years, State might have worst chemistry in nation.
Stony Brook @ Seton Hall-- Seawolves lost conference title game on its home court Saturday. Pirates think they got hosed out of NCAAs- they are very young team that could make a run in this tournament.
Dayton @ Iowa-- Flyers beat Minnesota by 16 in November- they got beat by rival Xavier in A-14 tourney. Iowa is 12-6 against teams not in the top 50 in country. Dayton is #64.
Savannah State @ Tennessee-- Savannah is 0-3 vs top 100 teams, losing by 29-33-33 points. Vols had won eight of nine games before OT loss to Ole Miss in SEC tournament.
Akron @ Northwestern-- Zips play fast- they lost tough MAC final on Saturday night. Northwestern went 3-5 in last eight games to gag away one more chance to make NCAAs for first time.
Marshall @ Middle Tennessee-- Thundering Herd played four games in four days in conference tournament, with last game Saturday afternoon. Middle had been on 17-2 run before getting upset last two games- they are not happy to be here.
LSU @ Oregon-- Tigers lost four of last five games, are one of country's worst shooting teams. Oregon was 11-3 in last 14 games before getting beat in first round of Pac-12 tournament.
UT-Arlington @ Washington-- Mavericks were by far best team in their league, but got whacked in conference tourney; they force turnovers on 24.6% of possessions, 11th in country. U-Dub is totally unreliable team because they play a freshman PG.
Cleveland State @ Stanford-- Vikings lost six of last eight games after a 20-4 start; if they don't force turnovers, they're lost on offense. Stanford lost at home to Butler of Horizon 71-66 back in December.
Princeton @ Evansville-- Purple Aces played six overtime games this season, are #3 foul shooting team in America. Princeton won eight of last nine games, knocking Penn out of Ivy League race.
Milwaukee @ TCU-- Horizon League road underdogs of 5 points or less points are 6-4-1 vs spread. TCU lost home finale in OT to San Diego St, then laid an egg in conference tourney against Colorado State.
Washington State @ San Francisco-- Dons won 10 of last 15 games; not often a WCC team gets a Pac-12 team in its gym. Other than Moten, the Coogs struggle to score. Pac-12 road dogs of 6 or less points are 6-12.
Robert Morris @ Indiana State-- RMC was #3 seed in #26 conference; they're #15 in country at forcing turnovers. Sycamores are 3-5 last eight games. MVC home favorites of 6 or less points are 3-12 vs spread.
Tennessee State @ Mercer-- Tigers are only team to beat Murray State. Mercer lost conference tourney semifinals on home court to a sub-.500 team- they lost four of last six games. Tennessee State lost to Belmont, the A-Sun kingpin, by 13.
Coastal Carolina @ Old Dominion-- Chanticleers lost to Clemson by a point early in season, but lost six of last eight games at end. CAA home favorites of 10+ points are 5-4 against the spread.
Tennessee Tech @ Georgia State-- Tech has one of nation's best gunners in Murphy (43% behind arc). Georgia State plays great defense- foes are shooting just 32% against them, outside the arc.
McNeese State @ Toledo-- Cowboys knocked #1 seed UT-Arlington out of its conference tourney. MAC home favorites of 7 or less points are 12-8 against the spread. Surprised these teams are still playing.
Utah Valley @ Weber State-- Valley is 0-6 vs teams in top 150; four of the six losses were by nine or less points. Weber lost conference title tilt at Montana Wednesday. Big Sky home favorites are 6-11.
Armadillosports.com
NCAA Preview & Pick: Western Kentucky vs. Mississippi Valley State
By Covers.com
Western Kentucky Hilltoppers vs. Mississippi Valley State Delta Devils (4.5, 138)
THE STORY: Mississippi Valley State and Western Kentucky will meet Tuesday as part of the NCAA tournament’s First Four, with the winner advancing to take on No. 1 seed Kentucky in the Round of 64’s South Regional on Thursday. This marks the fifth NCAA tournament bid for the Southwestern Athletic Conference champion Delta Devils, while the Hilltoppers will make their 22nd appearance in the dance, after capturing the Sun Belt Conference title.
ABOUT MISSISSIPPI VALLEY STATE (21-12, 17-1 SWAC): The Delta Devils rolled through the SWAC tournament, defeating Jackson State, Arkansas-Pine Bluff and Texas Southern en route to the title. They have ripped off 20 wins in their last 21 games, including their championship run, after a 1-11 start to the season. MVSU has a nose for turnovers, ranking in the top 10 nationally with 8.8 steals per game. Paul Crosby and Terrence Joyner pace the Delta Devils’ offense, averaging 13.6 and 13.4 points, respectively, while Cor-J Cox adds an 11.4 average. MVSU’s last tournament appearance came in 2008, as a No. 16 seed, losing to UCLA 70-29.
ABOUT WESTERN KENTUCKY (15-18, 7-9 Sun Belt): The Hilltoppers enter as improbable conference champions, having won six straight games overall to claim their first NCAA tournament berth since 2009. WKU has developed a knack for edging out close wins, with just two of its 15 wins this season coming by more than 10 points. During their six-game win streak, the Hilltoppers have prevailed by an average of 4.2 points. Derrick Gordon is Western Kentucky’s leading scorer, averaging 11.8 points per game. The Hilltoppers last appeared in the NCAA tournament in 2009, upsetting fifth-seeded Illinois before falling to No. 4 seed Gonzaga 83-81.
TRENDS:
- Western Michigan is 24-9 against the spread in its last 33 neutral-site games
- Mississippi Valley State is 1-6 against the number in its last seven overall.
- The under is 17-8 in Western Michigan's last 25 non-conference games.
PICK: Hilltoppers -4.5
NCAA Preview & Pick: Iona Gaels vs. BYU Cougars
By Covers.com
Iona Gaels vs. BYU Cougars (-2, 160.5)
THE STORY: BYU and Iona will help kick off the NCAA tournament’s First Four on Tuesday, with the winner moving on to tackle No. 3 seed Marquette as part of the West Regional in the Round of 64. The Cougars look to build on last year’s run to the Sweet 16 after securing an at-large bid to make the 27th tournament appearance in school history. This is the ninth NCAA berth all-time for the Gaels and their first since 2006.
ABOUT BRIGHAM YOUNG (25-8, 12-4 WCC): Last year’s Cougars entered the tournament as a No. 3 seed and saw their dream cut short at the hands of Florida after wins over Wofford and Gonzaga. This season, BYU comes in a little more under the radar, falling to Gonzaga in the WCC semifinals and are 2-2 in their last four. The Cougars rank among the nation's leaders in assists per game, averaging 17. Noah Hartsock is BYU’s leading scorer, averaging 16.7 points per game and the Cougars have four players overall averaging double figures.
ABOUT IONA (25-7, 15-3 MAAC): The Gaels have marked their territory among national powers all season long from a statistical perspective, leading the NCAA in scoring at 83.2 points per game, and assists with 19.3 on average. Iona is also near the top in field goal percentage, connecting at a 50.4 percent clip on the season. Mike Glover leads the Gaels’ offense and topped all MAAC scorers with an 18.6 points per game average – good for 33rd in the nation. Scott Machado averages a near double-double with 13.6 points and a 9.9 assists per game.
TRENDS:
- The under is 5-0 in BYU's last five.
- Iona is 12-3-1 against the spread following an ATS loss.
- BYU is 1-5-1 against the number in its last seven non-conference games.
PICK: Iona +2
MISS VALLEY ST (20 - 13) vs. W KENTUCKY (15 - 18) - 3/13/2012, 7:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MISS VALLEY ST is 1-7 ATS (-6.7 Units) in all games this season.
MISS VALLEY ST is 1-7 ATS (-6.7 Units) in all lined games this season.
MISS VALLEY ST is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in all neutral court games over the last 2 seasons.
MISS VALLEY ST is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) when playing on a neutral court over the last 2 seasons.
MISS VALLEY ST is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in all tournament games over the last 2 seasons.
W KENTUCKY is 44-23 ATS (+18.7 Units) in all neutral court games since 1997.
W KENTUCKY is 33-15 ATS (+16.5 Units) in March games since 1997.
W KENTUCKY is 44-23 ATS (+18.7 Units) when playing on a neutral court since 1997.
W KENTUCKY is 8-2 ATS (+5.8 Units) off a win against a conference rival this season.
W KENTUCKY is 7-16 ATS (-10.6 Units) in non-conference games over the last 2 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
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IONA (25 - 7) vs. BYU (25 - 8) - 3/13/2012, 9:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
BYU is 165-113 ATS (+40.7 Units) as a favorite since 1997.
BYU is 17-35 ATS (-21.5 Units) in road games in all tournament games since 1997.
BYU is 57-96 ATS (-48.6 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record since 1997.
BYU is 35-54 ATS (-24.4 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games since 1997.
Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
No trends available for CBI/NIT games
MISS VALLEY STATE vs. WESTERN KENTUCKY
No trends available
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Western Kentucky's last 6 games
Western Kentucky is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
COASTAL CAROLINA vs. OLD DOMINION
No trends available
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Old Dominion's last 7 games
Old Dominion is 13-5 SU in its last 18 games
MCNEESE STATE vs. TOLEDO
No trends available
Toledo is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Toledo's last 6 games at home
See more trends!
MARCH 13, 7:00 PM
MASSACHUSETTS vs. MISSISSIPPI STATE
Massachusetts is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games on the road
Mississippi State is 2-6 ATS in its last 8 games
Mississippi State is 16-3 SU in its last 19 games at home
TENNESSEE STATE vs. MERCER
Tennessee State is 8-17 SU in its last 25 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Tennessee State's last 7 games on the road
No trends available
TENNESSEE TECH vs. GEORGIA STATE
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Tennessee Tech's last 10 games on the road
Georgia State is 2-6 ATS in its last 8 games
Georgia State is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games at home
ROBERT MORRIS vs. INDIANA STATE
No trends available
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Indiana State's last 6 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Indiana State's last 5 games
STONY BROOK vs. SETON HALL
No trends available
The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Seton Hall's last 13 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Seton Hall's last 5 games at home
DAYTON vs. IOWA
The total has gone OVER in 10 of Dayton's last 15 games on the road
Dayton is 2-6 SU in its last 8 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Iowa's last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Iowa's last 6 games at home
SAVANNAH STATE vs. TENNESSEE
No trends available
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Tennessee's last 6 games at home
Tennessee is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
PRINCETON vs. EVANSVILLE
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Princeton's last 5 games on the road
Evansville is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
Evansville is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games
WISC-MILWAUKEE vs. TCU
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Wisc-Milwaukee's last 8 games on the road
Wisc-Milwaukee is 3-6 SU in its last 9 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 4 of TCU's last 5 games
TCU is 8-1 SU in its last 9 games at home
UTAH VALLEY vs. WEBER STATE
No trends available
Weber State is 1-4-1 ATS in its last 6 games at home
Weber State is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
AKRON vs. NORTHWESTERN
Akron is 7-3 SU in its last 10 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 13 of Akron's last 17 games on the road
Northwestern is 16-6 SU in its last 22 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Northwestern's last 6 games at home
IONA vs. BYU
No trends available
BYU is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games
BYU is 7-2 SU in its last 9 games
MARSHALL vs. MIDDLE TENNESSEE
Marshall is 3-6 SU in its last 9 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Marshall's last 5 games on the road
Middle Tennessee is 12-1 SU in its last 13 games at home
Middle Tennessee is 2-6 ATS in its last 8 games
LSU vs. OREGON
LSU is 1-8 SU in its last 9 games on the road
Oregon is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
Oregon is 21-4 SU in its last 25 games at home
WASHINGTON STATE vs. SAN FRANCISCO
Washington State is 2-8 SU in its last 10 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Washington State's last 12 games on the road
San Francisco is 7-2 SU in its last 9 games at home
San Francisco is 8-4 SU in its last 12 games
TEXAS-ARLINGTON vs. WASHINGTON
No trends available
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Washington's last 6 games
Washington is 10-3 SU in its last 13 games
CLEVELAND STATE vs. STANFORD
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Cleveland State's last 9 games on the road
Cleveland State is 9-4 SU in its last 13 games on the road
Stanford is 16-3 SU in its last 19 games at home
March Madness First Four Betting
Sportspic.com
Western Kentucky Hilltoppers vs. Mississippi Valley State Delta Devils
March Madness Betting experts finally have March Madness games to analyze, even ones between teams that are competing for the right to get a No. 16 seed and face a top-seeded behemoth in the round of 64 at this year’s NCAA Tournament. Western Kentucky is the team enjoying a magic carpet ride. In January, Western Kentucky fired head coach Ken McDonald and replaced him with Ray Harper. The Hilltoppers didn’t top the .500 mark in their conference, but when given a chance to play their way into the NCAA Tournament, they won four games in four days to win the Sun Belt Tournament championship, beating a pair of top-three seeds in the conference.
Mississippi Valley State has been the steadier and more resolutely consistent team over the past two months. The Delta Devils lost only one game in the Southwestern Athletic Conference (the SWAC) all season long. Both of these teams have ample reason to be confident, but Western Kentucky appears to be a little more dangerous. The Hilltoppers aren’t playing like a 15-18 team. They’ve sorted out their issues and enjoy the kind of cohesiveness that can’t easily be replicated at this time of year. College Basketball Betting Pick: Western Kentucky
Brigham Young Cougars vs. Iona Gaels
When you do your homework and assess your Sports Bet on this game, you should realize that these are both teams who are thrilled to have a chance to compete in this contest. Brigham Young was viewed by many bracketologists to be in deep trouble when it got smoked by Gonzaga in the semifinals of the West Coast Conference Tournament, but after a week in which so many bubble teams failed to win games that would have improved their own chances, BYU’s place in the pecking order continued to rise.
The Cougars were able to sneak into the field of 68, and as a result, they’ll be sky-high for this game. Iona, though, will be just as elated. The Gaels, regular-season champions of the Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference (the MAAC), were stunned by the Fairfield Stags in the tournament semifinals. Iona was also viewed to be a team that was on the outside of the candy store. Yet, when reams of bubble teams stumbled, Iona benefited and backdoored its way into this play-in game. Motivation, therefore, is a wash. Who has the better team? It’s probably Iona. The Gaels’ Scott Machado has too much quickness for Brigham Young’s guards. In what is likely to be an up-tempo game, Iona has the best up-tempo player. College Basketball Betting Pick: Iona
NCAA Tournament Betting Preview
Sportsmemo.com
Mississippi Valley State vs. Western Kentucky -4.5 O/U 139
Rob Veno Power Rating: Western Kentucky -6
Betting Take: Play-in game with the winner taking on top seed Kentucky. The SWAC will be represented by the class of the league, Mississippi Valley State, who finished 17-1. Like most SWAC schools, the Delta Devils played a lot of "pay check road games" against power conference schools during the non-conference. They took their lumps but were competitive in losses to Iowa State, DePaul, and South Carolina. Western Kentucky fired its coach mid-season and at one point was 5-14 overall and 1-5 in Sun Belt play. The Hilltoppers managed to finish 7-9 in conference play and won four games in four days (by a total of 17 points) to claim the Sun Belt crown. Never know what to expect from these play-in games though they have been relatively low scoring the last few years with scores of 61-44, 58-43 and 69-60. Note however that Mississippi Valley averaged more than 70 possessions per game in conference action. The SWAC has one play-in game victory in five chances.
Iona vs. BYU -2 O/U 161.5
Rob Veno Power Rating: BYU -1.5
Betting Take: Two teams that just slipped into the postseason square off in the 14th seed play-in game. The winner takes on no. 3 seed Marquette. Against St. Mary's, Loyola Marymount and Gonzaga, BYU went just 2-5 SU with two of those losses coming at the once vaunted Marriott Center. Defensively, the Cougs' numbers look decent but they had a lot difficulty defending pretty much any team with an above average offense. They'll certainly see that against Iona who during the preseason hung 90 and 89 on Purdue and Maryland respectively. Like BYU, the Gaels often win by outscoring the opposition. Note that against the top two defenses in the MAAC, Fairfield and Manhattan, Iona went 1-3 ATS. Also of note, Iona was 1-3 O/U in games lines 160 or above. BYU didn't play a game lined over 160 and was 4-6 O/U in games line 150 or above. A lot of things outside of just pace need to go right in order to top 161 points in a college basketball game.