Michigan at Ohio State
By Brian Edwards
VegasInsider.com
Since losing four consecutive games, Ohio State (19-5 straight up, 12-11 against the spread) has won four of its last five and appears to have its mojo back going into Tuesday's key Big 10 showdown against Michigan.
As early Monday night, most betting shops had the Buckeyes installed as four-point home favorites.
Thad Matta's squad trounced Purdue, 67-49 on Saturday night as an 11-point home 'chalk.' LaQuinton Ross led the way with a team-high 17 points, while Lenzelle Smith Jr. finished with 16 points and dished out five assists without committing a turnover. Smith knocked down four shots from 3-point land.
Ohio State has now won 14 of its 16 home games, but it is a mediocre 7-8 ATS. The Buckeyes have been single-digit home favorites just once, losing outright to Iowa in that instance.
Michigan (17-6 SU, 11-9-1 ATS) has lost two of its last three games and got spanked, 85-67 Saturday at Iowa as a 5.5-point underdog. The defeat dropped the Wolverines' record as underdog to 3-3 both SU and ATS.
Caris LaVert scored a team-best 22 points in the loss to the Hawkeyes. Zak Irvin came off the bench to score 19 on 4-of-6 shooting from deep.
Michigan star Nik Stauskas was held below his scoring average (17.0 points per game) for the fourth straight game at Iowa. Stauskas scored only 10 points and committed four turnovers without dishing out an assist.
Stauskas is still in the running for Big Ten Player of the Year honors, but the last four games have certainly hurt its candidacy. He had just 10 points against Iowa and was held in single figures the two previous contests. Stauskas has had more turnovers than assists in three of the last four games.
Michigan is in a first-place tie with Michigan State in the Big Ten standings with a 9-2 record in league play. Ohio State is 6-5 in the Big Ten and in a tie for fourth place.
Ohio State is No. 15 in the RPI Rankings, going 3-3 against the RPI Top 50 and 10-4 versus the Top 100. Michigan is No. 17 in the RPI, compiling a 5-4 record against RPI Top-50 opponents and a 9-5 mark versus RPI Top-100 foes.
The 'under' is 13-9-1 overall for Ohio State, 8-6-1 in its home games. Meanwhile, the 'over' has hit in six of Michigan's last nine games to improve to 11-9-1 overall.
These bitter rivals split a pair of regular-season games last year with the home team prevailing each time. Ohio State won a 56-53 decision over Michigan as a two-point home favorite, while the Wolverines won in overtime by a 76-74 count in Ann Arbor.
Ohio State has won eight of the last 10 head-to-head meetings against Michigan, but the Wolverines are 6-4 ATS during this stretch.
B.E.'s Bonus Nuggets
Toledo's leading scorer Justin Drummond (14.6 PPG) has been suspended for Wednesday's game against Ohio after being arrested for DUI on Saturday night.
After ending Cincinnati's 15-game winning streak Saturday night, SMU made its first appearance in this week's AP Top 25 since 1985. The Mustangs beat a Top-10 team for the first time since a 1987 victory over Florida.
Florida won its 29th consecutive home game in Saturday's non-covering win over Alabama at The O-Dome. On Tuesday night, the Gators will put their unbeaten SEC record on the line at Tennessee. Most spots opened UF as a one-point road 'chalk.' The Volunteers have won three of the last four head-to-head meetings both SU and ATS, but Billy Donovan's team destroyed UT 67-41 in Gainesville two weeks ago.
San Diego State has won six of the last seven meetings against Mountain West rival Wyoming both SU and ATS. However, the one defeat came at Wyoming (58-45) last season. These teams will square off Tuesday night and most spots have the Aztecs listed as four-point road favorites. The Cowboys have covered the spread in three straight games to improve to 13-6-1 ATS on the season. They dropped a 48-46 heartbreaker Saturday at UNLV but hooked up their backers as six-point underdogs.
The 'under' is 15-3 overall for San Diego State this year. With that said, we should note that the 'over' is 6-2 in its last eight head-to-head encounters with Wyoming.
With wins at Indiana State and Northern Iowa this past week, Wichita State remained undefeated. The Shockers have an excellent chance to become the first team since 1991 (UNLV) to take an unbeaten record into the NCAA Tournament. They are 17-point home favorites Tuesday vs. Southern Illinois.
College Basketball Information
Oklahoma State lost its last four games, is now without Smart for three games (suspended), and is down three players; Cowboys were 35-51 on the line in 87-74 (-12.5) win over Texas Jan 8, their 4th win in row vs Texas. Underdogs are 5-0 vs spread in OSU's Big X road games. Texas won seven of last eight games; they're 0-3 as home favorites, winning by 3-10-3-12. Big X home favorites of less than 5 points are 5-2 vs spread.
Clemson is 2-3 in its last five games; favorites are 5-1 vs spread in their ACC road games- all four Tiger ACC losses are by 13+ points- they are 5-0 SU in ACC games decided by 8 or less points. Notre Dame is 2-8 in its last ten games, 0-3 as home favorite, with ACC wins by 2-7-3. ACC home favorites of 5 or less points are 4-11 vs spread. Clemson is last in ACC in ball security, turning ball over 21.3% of time.
Wake Forest shot 65% inside arc, 28-39 on foul line in 70-69 (-2.5) wion over NC State Jan 15, just its 2nd win in last eight series games. Wake is 0-8 in last eight visits here, with last four losses by 11+ points- they've lost last three games by 9+ points, are 2-3 as road underdogs. State won four of last five games, with its last three wins by 4 or less points. ACC home favorites of 6 or less points are 6-16 vs spread.
Tennessee was 1-19 on arc in 67-41 (-9) loss at Florida Jan 25, ending a 3-game win streak vs Gators. Vols are 1-5 in last six visits here; three of five losses were by 4 or less points. Florida is 10-0 in SEC, 3-3 as home favorite, with all six wins by 9+. SEC home teams are 21-7-1 vs spread in games where spread was 5 or less points. Tennessee won its last four home games after losing SEC home opener to Texas A&M.
Alabama lost four games in row and six of seven; favorites covered four of its five SEC home games (2-1 as HF). Home side won 11 of last 13 in series; Rebels lost last two visits here, by 10-5 points. Ole Miss lost its last two road games at Tennessee/Kentucky, both by 16 points- they're 1-4 vs spread on SEC road, 2-0 as road dogs. SEC home favorites of 6 or less points are 13-4 against the spread.
Marquette won four in row, 12 of last 13 games with Seton Hall- they beat Pirates 67-66 (-10) Jan 11, holding on after leading by 16 early in second half. Eagles are 1-4 on Big East road, with three losses by 12+, and only win at Georgetown- they're 1-4 as Big East underdog. Pirates lost three of four Big East home games, with only win vs DePaul. Big East home favorites of 6 or less points are 10-7 vs spread.
Wichita State (-11.5) beat Southern Illinois 82-67 in Carbondale Jan 2nd, shooting 70% inside arc, 9-20 outside it; Shockers won four of last five series games, winning last two here by 43-6 points. MVC double digit home favorites are 6-5 vs spread. Wichita is 4-2 as MVC home favorite but covered one of last four games overall. Salukis won/covered last four games- they're 4-1-1 vs spread in last six games as an underdog.
Ohio State won eight of last ten games with Michigan, winning last nine in Columbus, with eight of nine wins by 9+ points, but three of last four in series were decided by 5 or less points. Big Dozen home favorites of less than 6 points are 7-10 vs spread. Michigan lost last two road games, at Indiana/Iowa; they're 3-1 as road underdogs. Ohio State won three in row after losing five of previous six- they're 2-3 as home favorites.
Butler is 1-4 at home in Big East, with only win over Marquette in OT; four of those five games went OT. Xavier (-5.5) beat Bulldogs 79-68 Jan 4, making 20-24 on line, with a +7 (15-8) turnover ratio; Musketeers are 1-3 on Big East road, losing by 6-9-23 points, with only win at DePaul; they've lost three of last four overall, losing by 9-8-23 points. Big East home teams are 6-3 vs spread if spread was 3 or less points.
Utah State (-6.5) beat Colorado State 57-50 Jan 15, making 11-21 on arc, just 8-27 inside it; Rams were only 11-20 on foul line. Aggies are 0-5 on Mountain West road, 1-2 as road dogs, losing away games by 1-8-4-20-17 points. Rams covered four of last five games, are 2-1 as home faves, winning by 19-6-18 points, with only losses to Aztecs/Lobos, top two teams. MW home favorites of 5 or less points are 8-3 vs spread.
San Diego State won six of last seven games with Wyoming, splitting its last six visits here; Aztecs are 10-0 in league, 3-1 as road favorites, with three of last four road wins by 7 or less points. Five of last six Wyoming games were decided by 7 or less points; Cowboys won three of four at home in MW, with only loss by 3 to New Mexico. Mountain West home underdogs of 6 or less points are 5-9 vs spread.
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