College Knowledge
-- Nine of last ten Seton Hall-Rutgers games were decided by 6 points or less; road team won last five series games. Pirates won last five visits to Piscataway, by 13-5-11-5-5 points. Big East home favorites of 7 or less points are 3-19 vs spread. Rutgers lost its last six games, losing three in row at home, by 12-20-6 points. Hall is turning ball over 25.3% of time in league play; they've lost last five games, scoring 58.2 ppg.
-- Virginia made 11-23 from arc, had only six turnovers in 74-58 win (-5) in Blacksburg Jan 24, its 4th win in last five series games. Cavaliers won six of last seven games, are 5-0 at home in ACC, with four wins by 9+ points. Five of last six Virginia games went over total. ACC double digit home favorites are 10-3 vs spread. Tech lost last six games, scoring 58.3 ppg in last three; best player Green was dehydrated in last game.
-- Cleveland State is 1-5 on road in Horizon League, with all five losses by 12+ points, but they upset Detroit 74-62 (+8) Jan 12, making 8-14 on arc. Vikings won three of last four series games, but are 3-6 last nine visits here. Detroit won four of last five games, scoring 75+ points in the four wins- they're 4-2 at home in league, winning by 15-8-51-11 points. Horizon double digit home favorites are 5-4 vs spread.
-- 14-12 Towson State was 1-31 LY; they're 5-1 on CAA road, won last four games overall- they waxed James Madison 76-47 (-3) Jan 19, with Dukes shooting just 25.5% from floor. That was Tigers' first series win in last five tries; they've lost last five visits here, CAA home favorites of 6 or less points are 10-16 vs spread. JMU is 6-1 at home in conference, with only loss by 11 to George Mason.
-- Valparaiso (-9) shot 57% inside arc, beat Wright State 69-63 at home Jan 19, game they trailed by 7 with 6:43 left; Crusaders won four of last five series games, but lost three of last four visits here, with win couple years ago. Favorites are 15-3 vs spread in Horizon games where spread is 3 or less points. Wright is 8-4 in Horizon, with five of eight wins by three or less points. Valpo won nine of its last ten games overall.
-- Kentucky won five of last six games vs Florida, beating Gators three times LY, but they're 2-6 in last eight visits here. Wildcats won last five games overall, with wins at Ole Miss/A&M; they're 4-1 on SEC road, losing by 4 at Alabama. Florida is 5-0 at home in SEC, with one win by less than 25 points (14). SEC single digit home favorites are 11-17 vs spread. This is really a bigger game for Florida; UK has nothing to lose.
-- Indiana State (-10) shot 65% inside arc, beat Missouri State 68-60 at home Jan 16, ISU's third win last four series games. Sycamores won six of last eight games, but lost four of last five on road, with win by 13 at Wichita. MVC home underdogs of 5 or less points are 11-3 vs spread. Bears covered 11 of last 13 games, but lost last two, by 11-29 points- they're 4-2 at home in Valley, losing by 22-10 points.
-- Loyola shot 62% inside arc, beat Milwaukee 76-65 (-12) January 30, but they're 0-3 since then, losing last two games by combined total of 4 points. Ramblers split last six visits here- six of their 11 league games have been decided by 3 or less points. Milwaukee lost last eight games, with six of last seven losses by 10+ points- theur only league win was over Cleveland State here. Horizon single digit home underdogs are 9-6.
-- Cincinnati is 4-2 on road, 2-3 at home in Big East play; they lost last two games, scoring 50-52 points- they beat Villanova twice LY, both by 4 points. Home team won six of last seven series games. Big East home favorites of 7 or less points are 3-19 vs spread. Wildcats won four of last six games, winning three of last four at home- they're getting to foul line at higher rate than any team in country. .
-- Tough stretch of games for Michigan, playing 4th top 15 team in last 11 days, with last two games going OT. Wolverines are 3-3 on road in league, losing last two, at Indiana/Wisconsin- they've won three of last four games vs Michigan State, but they're 1-6 in last seven visits here. Favorites are 10-5 vs spread in Big Dozen games where spread is 4 or less points. Spartans won nine of last 10, are 5-0 at home in league.
-- Georgia won last five games, allowing 53 ppg, after looking dead with 7-11 record before that; Dawgs are 3-2 at home in SEC, winning by 9-8-6 points- they've lost last three games with Alabama, scoring 58.3 ppg. Crimson Tide won seven of last nine games; six of Bama's last seven games were decided by 4 or less points. SEC home teams are 15-11 vs spread if number was 5 or less points.
-- Manhattan won three of last four games after a 5-14 start; they're 1-6 in last seven games vs Fairfield, losing last five visits here, by 2-5-9-7-6 points. Jaspers are 2-5 on MAAC road, with four losses by 4 points or less, none by more than 8. MAAC home favorites of 8+ points are 10-7 vs spread. Fairfield won its last five games, four by 10+, allowing 49.6 ppg; Stags won last three home games, by 34-10-17 points.
Armadillosports.com
Games to Watch
By David Schwab
VegasInsider.com
No. 3 Michigan Wolverines vs. No. 12 Michigan State Spartans
It has been a wild ride for the Wolverines over the past three games with a tough 81-73 loss to Indiana as 5½-point road underdogs, a huge 76-74 overtime victory against Ohio State as seven-point home favorites and a 65-62 overtime loss to Wisconsin this past Saturday as two-point underdogs on the road. They are now 8-3 in the Big Ten and 21-3 SU overall. Michigan failed to cover in all three of these games and is now 12-9-1 ATS. The total went OVER in its last three games as well. The Wolverines remain one of the top shooting teams in the nation; hitting 49.8 percent from the field.
Michigan State moved into a tie with Indiana atop the Big Ten standings at 9-2 after knocking off Purdue 78-65 this past Saturday as a four-point road favorite. It is now 20-4 SU on the year and 9-11-1 ATS. The total has gone OVER in three of its last four games. The Spartans return home where they are a perfect 14-0 SU this season. Keith Appling leads the team with 14.1 points and 4.1 assists a game and Gary Harris is averaging 12.7 points while shooting 46.5 percent from the field.
Top 25 NCB Betting Notes
By Covers.com
Check out our quick-hitting betting notes on Tuesday’s ranked college basketball games:
Kentucky at (6) Florida (-11)
The top two teams in the Southeastern Conference standings play a pivotal contest when Florida hosts Kentucky. The Gators are 11-0 at the O’Connell Center and have won their five SEC home contests by an average of 28.4 points. Kentucky has won five straight games and is playing stellar basketball after a bumpy start. The Gators have adjusted some roles after losing junior forward Will Yeguete (second in rebounding at 6.3) to a knee injury. The loss leaves junior center Patric Young (10.8 points, team-best 6.6 rebounds) as the lone force in the interior. Florida has held 16 opponents under 60 points and allows an SEC-low 52.7 points per game. The Gators are 1-4 ATS in their last five Tuesday games.
(5) Michigan at (8) Michigan State (Pick)
The intense race for the Big Ten regular season title heats up when Michigan visits Michigan State in a mammoth encounter. The Wolverines suffered a stunning loss to Wisconsin, which forced overtime on a 40-footer by Ben Brust, falling into a third-place tie and spoiling a chance at gaining the top ranking in the country. The Spartans had no such drama in their 78-65 win at Purdue on Saturday, which allowed them to enter the week still tied with Indiana atop the Big Ten. Michigan will need to find its legs after back-to-back overtime games. The Wolverines will also need to rediscover the offensive prowess that has made them a special unit at times this season. Against the gritty Badgers, Michigan shot 39.4 percent, just a shade over its season low, and reached the foul line for just two attempts. The home team is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings.
College Basketball: Streaks, Tips, Notes
Sportspic.com
Kentucky at Florida
The Florida Gators (19-3, 12-7 ATS) shook off an 80-69 loss at Arkansas Tuesday with an 83-58 thumping of Mississippi State Bulldogs this past weekend just the confidence builder needed with a home date against Kentucky Wildcats (17-6, 8-12 ATS) scheduled. The Gators lead by Kenny Boyton (13.12) Erik Murphy (12.9) net 74.2 points/game and have outscored their ten conference opponents by an average of 22.6 points/game in posting an 9-1 (7-3 ATS) mark. The Wildcats ridding a 5-0 stretch to hold down second place in the SEC are averaging 76.0 PPG behind five double digit scorers with Archie Goodwin (14.2) leading the troops. Florida needs to be at it's air-tight defensive best in this one (52.7 PPG). Gators have had trouble with Wildcats going 0-5 (1-3-1 ATS) of late and are just 2-9 (5-5-1 ATS) last eleven encounters including 2-3 SU/ATS as host in the series. Gators 11-0 (5-3 ATS) at home, 8-3 ATS their last 11 against the conference have been pegged 9.5 to 10.0 point favorite vs. a Wildcat team 3-10 ATS in it's last 13 vs. the SEC.
Tuesday Cliff Notes
ByDave Essler
Michigan at Michigan State: Always each teams' GOY, and with another game in Ann Arbor later, perhaps there's some relaxation here by the Wolverines. That always concerns me when a team already knows they've got a rematch at home. Spartans in pretty good position here, with no bad losses this season and none at home. That's almost always tough to fade. And perhaps the Wolverines youth is catching up to them a bit. They have lost all three big road games, and remember that most of these Freshman are playing for about their fifth month, which is about two more than they played last year in High School. Both teams have easy games next, if there is such a thing anymore. Spartans now tied with Indiana for the Big Ten lead, both just one game ahead of Michigan. This is one of those key games that can and probably will go a long way towards tournament seeding later, so there's really a lot more at stake here. Both teams play a similar pace. So, with all this said we should just take Michigan State. Not so fast, my friends. Since Conference play stared the Spartans have the 12th WORST two-point defensive efficiency rating, while Michigan is numero uno on offense. What I don't like is that the Wolverines rely so much on the three-pointer, and on the road that's tough for me. The Spartans have had turnover issues, while Michigan's effective defense has fallen a bit. Again, maybe they're tiring and the hype is putting additional pressure on the kids. Rebounding ought to be a wash, while the Spartans ought to cash more free throws. I think the wild card here is Gary Harris, the Freshman guard for MSU. If he can hit his shots and/or defend Hardaway (who has a height advantage over everyone). Not sure if maybe Izzo doesn't switch up with Appling and/or Dawson on he and Burke, but that should be where the game is decided. Issue for Michigan is four players playing at or over 80% of the minutes.
Villanova at Cincinnati: Both teams at 6-5 in the Conference and neither wants to fall too much further since they'd not have a bye in the first round of the Conference Tournament. 'Cats on the road are always tough to back, BUT, SU and ATS are two different things. They played the Irish and Syracuse tough, and although they've only beaten DePaul and South Florida recently, they did do what they're supposed to and pound the shit out of both of them, so I'd say they are pretty focused. With this game and at UConn next, you might have thought they'd at least not cover those two potential look-ahead games. Cincinnati hasn't really had a good win since they beat Pittsburgh, in overtime at home, in about a month, and they've got a game against G-Town as soon as Friday. To me, their recent mini-collapse is due the very weak non-conference schedule they played, and because they are a terrible FT shooting team, it would be hard for me to take them here. Both teams more or less live and die with outside shots, 'Nova to a slightly bigger extent. I don't like Villanova's turnover rate, but, Cincinnati is a great defending team, but not so much at creating turnovers. All things being equal, I like Villanova's defense better since Conference play started. The Bearcats three point % is 12th in the Conference, which is not good. However, whenever I fade them Cashmere Wright simply goes off. Both teams get to the line a lot, 'Nova shoots better. So, probably Villanova and 'ova here as I think they will be able to speed up the game. Why? Because I like Jay Wright better than Mick Cronin. Plus, the beat Villanove by four last year, twice, and now they're without Dion Dixon and Yancy Gates.
Valpo at Wright State: Wright and Detroit are two games behind Valpo in the loss column, so obviously a huge game for Wright State. Without Butler in the Horizon League, this could be their biggest game in years. Wright has already split with Detroit and lost by six at Valpo, meaning two things. First, they've got the obvious in-season revenge motivation, and more importantly they will be favored in their remaining games have already played the best. Valpo has a game Saturday with Detroit, so a potential lack of focus, perhaps. Valpo is THE most experienced team in the country and score nearly a third of their points from behind the arc, the defense of which is the strength of Wright State. The downside to taking Wright is that they are a very aggressive defense and have been know to get into foul trouble, and Valpo isn't the team you want to do that against. A couple of glaring things I know is that Wright creates turnover and Valpo turns it over. OK, we'll take Valpo. Not so fast. Wright is an awful offensive rebounding team and Valpo is a great defensive rebounding team that WILL run when given the chance. Having said that, it's rare that I would take a Wright State "over" in a home game, but I might. Stat-wise Valpo is better in almost every way since Conference play began, but as we know they don't play this on a simulator. Valpo has the chance to eliminate Wright from the #1 Tourney seed, while Wright has the chance to be at worst #2, and potentially #1 if Detroit beats Valpo Saturday. The huge win over GB and the rout of Wisconsin (as it should be) should have them sky high here. They beat Valpo here by 18 points last season, which was probably their best win of the season. So, revenge for Valpo or confidence for Wright. Very interesting game that will probably be a PK or close, tempting the public (I hate that word) to take Valpo.
Alabama at Georgia: I looked at this game on Sunday and thought I'd like the Dawgs. Alabama has played the third worst Conference schedule, which is why they're 7-3 and a game ahead of UGA. Obviously no love lost between the schools, so emotion will play a big part. But, Alabama has won two Conference road games, against Vanderbilt and Mississippi State, so from that aspect it'd be tough to think they win in Athens. UGA's only loss in the last six games was to the Gators, but they mysteriously lost to the aforementioned Mississippi State at home earlier this season. But, if it's "what have you done for me lately", they've beaten A & M and Tennessee on the road, and beat the Aggies again on Saturday. The do have Mississippi next, but when these two play each other look-aheads (unless it's to Florida) probably don't matter. UGA is bigger, deeper, and more experienced (marginally), but the downside is they turn it over almost more than anyone. Of course 'Bama creates them, it couldn't be that easy. UGA is not a great offensive rebounding team, but Alabama hasn't been cleaning up the glass this season. This game may not see 100 points, but I have to still lean UGA because they've scored 25% of their points from the charity stripe, more than anyone in the SEC this season (Conference play). They only met once last year, early, and Alabama pounded the shit out of them. My guess is they remember. Probably another PK game when all is said and done. Lean under and at this point have to go with UGA, subject to change.
College Basketball Point Spreads, Betting Guide and Picks
By: Larry Hartstein
Sportingnews.com
Tuesday gives us two juicy matchups in college basketball: No. 8 Michigan State hosts No. 4 Michigan, while No. 7 Florida hosts No. 25 Kentucky. The teams are a combined 34-8 in conference play.
No. 4 Michigan (21-3 SU, 12-9-1 ATS) at No. 8 Michigan State (20-4 SU, 9-11-1 ATS), 9 p.m. ET, ESPN
Line: Michigan -1.5; Total: 132
Michigan saw its three-game win streak against archrival Michigan State snapped a year ago. To start another streak, the Wolverines could use junior big man Jordan Morgan to battle the Spartans’ strong frontcourt. Morgan remains questionable with an ankle injury. He sat out Saturday’s stunning OT loss to Wisconsin in hopes of playing Tuesday in East Lansing.
"It's a physical game; much of their game is developed around post play,” Michigan coach John Beilein said of the Spartans, according to MLive.com. “You cannot be soft in the post and expect to guard them."
The Spartans are rolling, having gone 9-1 SU and 6-3-1 ATS since the calendar turned to 2013. The only loss was to No. 1 Indiana. They easily covered Saturday at Purdue as the starters shot 56.5 percent.
Michigan is coming off two straight overtime games and looks tired. This will be the Wolverines’ sixth road game in their last nine outings. They're on an 0-3 ATS skid after getting to the foul line just twice in Madison.
Michigan State has won 19 of the last 25 meetings.
Trends:
Michigan is 19-9-1 ATS in its last 29 road games.
Michigan is 37-18 ATS in its last 55 games following a SU loss.
Michigan State is 4-1-1 ATS in its last six games.
Under is 6-1 in Michigan’s last seven games against winning teams.
Over is 11-5 in Michigan’s last 16 Big Ten games.
Under is 5-1 in Michigan State’s last six games against winning teams.
Under is 6-1 in the last seven meetings.
Home team is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings.
The Linemakers’ take: With how competitive the Big Ten has been this season, we’ve typically been inclined to take the points. But with tonight's spread so light – and just about where we think it should be based on our power ratings – this one is a little different. Michigan State has covered five of its last six and is now tied for first in the conference with Indiana, but has gone largely unnoticed because of the renown of their counterparts. We’re still not too jazzed about going against the Wolverines, who will be charged up after Saturday’s heartbreaking loss to Wisconsin.
No. 25 Kentucky (17-6 SU, 8-12 ATS) at No. 7 Florida (19-3 SU, 12-7 ATS), 7 p.m. ET, ESPN
Line: Florida -10; Total: 135
Kentucky rides a season-best five-game win streak (2-3 ATS) into Gainesville, where the Gators are itching for revenge. Florida, which lost three times to the Wildcats last season, has won its five SEC home games by an average of 28.4 points. But the Gators are on an 0-3 ATS skid, owing mainly to inflated lines.
“I think every school in this conference looks at Kentucky as being the program to try to become,” Gators coach Billy Donovan said. “Obviously, it’s hard to do because they’ve done it for such a long period of time, not just here recently.”
The matchup to watch is Kentucky freshman Nerlens Noel (10.6 ppg, 9.6 rpg, 103 blocks) against Florida junior Patric Young (10.8 ppg, 6.6 rpg).
Trends:
Kentucky is 3-7 ATS in its last 10 games.
Kentucky is 3-10 ATS in its last 13 SEC games.
Kentucky is 2-8 ATS in its last 10 games vs. teams with .600-plus winning percentages.
Florida is 8-3 ATS in its last 11 SEC games.
Under is 16-5-1 in Kentucky’s last 22 road games.
Over is 4-1 in Florida’s last five home games.
Road team is 3-1-1 ATS in the last five meetings.
The Linemakers’ take: For all the talk about what a down year it’s been at Kentucky, John Cailpari’s group is just a game behind Florida for first place in the SEC. Still, the Wildcats haven’t beaten much on the road this season and get a Gators club that has yet to lose at home. While Florida hasn’t been rewarding their backers of late, that’s largely because of inflated point spreads – but they’re laying double-digits again tonight.
Alabama (15-8 SU, 8-11 ATS) at Georgia (12-11 SU, 10-9 ATS), 9 p.m. ET, ESPNU
Line: Georgia -1.5 Total: 111
The Bulldogs are on a 6-1 SU and ATS tear that seemed to come out of nowhere. Only once in that stretch has Georgia’s opponent scored 60 points. Georgia held Texas A&M to a season-worst 24 percent in a 52-46 win Saturday.
SEC leading scorer Kentavious Caldwell-Pope (17.5 ppg, 6.3 rpg) is finally getting some help offensively, with Georgia forward Nemanja Djurisic the latest to contribute significantly. The 6-8 sophomore came off the bench to score 13 points Saturday.
“We’re learning how to play together,” Djurisic told the Atlanta Journal-Constitution. “On the nights (Caldwell-Pope) doesn’t feel as good, we step up. Everyone’s been stepping up recently. We’ve been having about nine guys a night score. The whole bench is contributing.”
Alabama has averaged 46.3 points over its last three road games
Trends:
Alabama is 2-9 ATS in its last 11 games against winning teams.
Georgia is 5-0 ATS in the last five games.
Georgia is 4-1 ATS in its last five home games against teams with losing road records.
Under is 8-0 in Alabama’s last eight SEC games.
Under is 20-6 in Alabama’s last 26 games.
Under is 5-1-1 in Georgia’s last seven games.
Over is 4-1 in the last five meetings.
Favorite is 10-4 ATS in the last 14 meetings.