Tuesday's Tip Sheet
By David Schwab
VegasInsider.com
The men’s college basketball season continues to grind on and this is the time of the year where winning on the road gets tougher and tougher for any team in the nation no matter how much of a mismatch a game may appear to be on paper. For this Tuesday’s betting tip sheet, we will take a closer look at three conference showdowns that could have trap written all over it if the road favorite takes its eye off the ball.
No. 15 Iowa Hawkeyes at Indiana Hoosiers
Iowa handled its latest test on the road with an 82-70 victory over Penn State this past Saturday as a six-point favorite to improve to 8-3 against the spread in 11 games played away from home this season. The Hawkeyes are 8-4 both SU and ATS in the Big Ten and the total has gone OVER in their last four conference games.
They remain one of the highest scoring teams in the nation with 83.6 points a game and they are shooting a respectable 47 percent from the field. Iowa has also done an excellent job at controlling the boards with an average of 43 rebounds which is the third-highest total in the country. While things continue to move in the right direction, this team is still just 4-3 SU in its last seven games and if it is not careful it could get caught looking ahead to Saturday’s showdown at home against No. 16 Wisconsin.
The wheels have come unglued for an Indiana team that appeared to be in position to make some noise in the Big Ten this year after going 10-3 SU in nonconference play. The Hoosiers fell to 4-8 SU in conference play with an 82-64 loss to Purdue as one-point road underdogs this past Saturday. They have now failed to cover in four of their last five games while going just 2-6 SU in their last eight contests.
With the exception of the 82 points it gave up against the Boilermakers, defense has not really been the issue for Indiana over its previous seven games after holding teams to an average of 59.3 PPG. The problem has been an offense that could only muster 58.9 PPG during this same stretch as opposed to a season average of 73.4 PPG.
The Hawkeyes opened as 3½-point road favorites for this matchup and the numbre quickly jumped to 4½.
Iowa lost both meetings last season SU, but it comes into this matchup with a 7-1 mark ATS in the last eight games between the two. The total has stayed UNDER in four of the last five meetings.
No. 14 Virginia Cavaliers at Virginia Tech Hokies
Virginia has very quietly worked its way up the national rankings while remaining just a half a game in back of No. 1 Syracuse for first place in the ACC standings with a conference record of 12-1. The Cavaliers have won their last eight games and they have covered in 11 of their 13 games against the ACC. The lone SU loss was a 69-65 setback to Duke on Jan. 13 as six-point road underdogs. The total has stayed UNDER in five of their last seven games.
This is by no means one of the more explosive teams in the ACC with an average of 66.1 PPG and a field-goal percentage of 44.8, but Virginia does know how to play defense. So much so that it is ranked first in the nation in points allowed (55.6). It has also done a decent job under the boards with 36.4 rebounds a game.
It has been a rough season for the Hokies with just two victories in their first 12 ACC contests. They have been beaten by 20 points or more in four of their last six games including a 65-45 loss to Virginia on Jan. 25 as 16½-point road underdogs. Virginia Tech is 2-5 ATS in its last seven conference games and the total has stayed UNDER in 13 of its last 14 outings.
The total in the first meeting against the Cavaliers stayed UNDER a closing line of 123 points, which should not come as all that big of a surprise. The Hokies are averaging 65.8 PPG and shooting just 41 percent from the field. They are allowing an average of 66.1 PPG on their home court.
Virginia comes into this in-state rivalry as an 11½-point road favorite over the Hokies.
The favorite in this matchup is 3-0-1 ATS in the last four meetings and the total has gone OVER in three of the last four meetings. Virginia has beaten the Hokies SU in six of the last seven games and it is 5-1-1 ATS.
No. 5 Duke Blue Devils at Georgia Tech
Duke has lost three of its first 12 conference games and all of the setbacks came on the road. It had to grind-out a two-point 69-67 win over Maryland this past Saturday as a 13½-point home favorite. The Blue Devils run the risk of being a bit distracted against the Yellow Jackets with a Thursday night trip to Chapel Hill looming large. This will be a make-up date for last Wednesday’s game against North Carolina that was unexpectedly snowed-out. Duke is 7-4 ATS on the road this season and the total has gone OVER in five of six road games with a posted line.
Freshman phenom Jabari Parker continues to lead Duke in both points (19.3) and rebounds (8.5) and he has taken things up a notch in his past three outings with an average of 24.3 PPG and 10.7 RPG. The Blue Devils are averaging 81.7 PPG and they have exceeded that total in three of their last four games.
Georgia Tech has been all over the board in the ACC this season with a win following two-straight losses for an overall record of 4-8. If this pattern were to continue it would stand to reason that the Yellow Jackets should lose on Tuesday and this Saturday at home against Clemson after beating Boston College 74-71 last Thursday at home in a game that ended as a PUSH. They are 6-3-1 ATS in their last 10 games and the total has gone OVER in four of their last six games.
This will be the Yellow Jackets second meeting against Duke this season after getting hammered 79-57 on Jan. 7 as 15 ½-point road underdogs. They come into the back-end of this season’s home-and-home series averaging 67.8 PPG and shooting 43.8 percent from the field. Defensively, they are holding opponents to an average of 65.4 PPG on their home court.
The Blue Devils will head into McCamish Pavilion as 10½-point road favorites over Georgia Tech.
Duke has won nine of the last 10 meetings SU, but it is just 1-4 ATS in its last five road games against the Yellow Jackets. The total stayed UNDER the 146-point closing line in the first game this season and it has now stayed UNDER in 13 of the last 16 meetings.
College Basketball Information
Richmond won/covered all three games since leading scorer Lindsey was lost for season; Spiders won five of last seven games with GW, winning three of last four played here, by 4-10-9 points- they're 5-0 SU at home in league. GW lost last two games by 17-6 points; they're 2-3 on A-13 road, winning at St Bona/George Mason. A-13 teams are 10-13 against spread in games where spread was 3 or less points.
NC State played its heart out but lost by point at Syracuse; Wolfpack is 4-2 as ACC road dog- three of their last five road games were decided by one point. State won three of last four games with Clemson, losing four of last five visits to Littlejohn, with three losses by 10+ points. Clemson is 2-5 in last seven games, losing last two by 4-5; they're 1-2 as a home favorite. ACC home favorites of 5 or less points are 5-15 vs spread.
Texas won nine of last ten games, three of last four on road; Longhorns (+2) beat Iowa State 86-76 at home Jan 18, its 10th win in last 12 series games, but they lost last two visits here, by 6-20 points. Cyclones won four of last five games but are 1-5 as home favorites, failing to cover last five at home, with only one of last four home wins by more than six points. Big X home favorites of 5 or less points are 8-5 vs spread.
Villanova (-12) made 14-26 from arc in 91-61 thrashing of Providence Jan 5; Wildcats are 9-3 in last 12 series games, but lost last two visits to Providence, by 25-3 points. Wildcats are 4-2-1 as road favorites, with road wins by four of six road wins by 7+ points. Providence won five of last six home games, is 3-3 as Big East underdog, 1-0 at home. Big East home underdogs are 8-12 against spread.
Kentucky won four in row, 12 of last 14 games with Ole Miss, beating Rebels 80-64 (-11.5) at Rupp Feb 4, outscoring them 26-8 on foul line in game that was 35-34 at half. Wildcats won last three road games, are 2-2 as road favorites, losing at Arkansas/LSU in six road games. SEC home underdogs of 5 or less points are 11-6-1 vs spread. Ole Miss lost four of last six games, but all four were on road- they're 5-0 at home in SEC.
Kansas won its last eight games with Texas Tech, winning last three in Lubbock by 22-35-14 points, but Tubby Smith has injected life into the Tech program. Red Raiders won three of last four games, covered eight of last ten- they've won three of last four at home, are 2-2 as home dogs. Kansas is 3-2 as road favorite but lost two of last three on foreign soil. Big X home underdogs are 11-8-1 vs spread.
Indiana lost six of last eight games, with five losses by 7 or less poiints; Hoosiers split six home games, but won three of last four games with Iowa, winning by 14-13 in last two games played here. Hawkeyes won three of last four games, winning last three on road- they covered five of six road games. Big Dozen home teams are 10-8 vs spread in games where spread was 3 or less points; home underdogs are 8-12.
Duke, which plays UNC/Syracuse later this week, beat Georgia Tech at home 79-57 (-15) Jan 7, outscoring Tech 22-0 from foul line, hitting 9 of 20 from arc. Blue Devils won six in row, 15 of last 17 games with Tech- they split last four visits here, winning by 14-7. Tech lost four of last five home games, is 1-2-1 as home dog- five of its eight ACC losses are by 13+. ACC home underdogs of 6+ points are 0-6 against spread.
Northern Iowa (-8.5) beat Drake 76-66 Jan 11, outscoring Drake 23-8 in last 6:05; Panthers won five in row, nine of last ten series games, taking four of last five visits here, all by 7+ points. MVC home underdogs of 4 or less points are 3-5-1 vs spread. Bulldogs won last three home games, are 3-5 as MVC dogs. UNI won/covered last two games after covering once in previous eight games- they're 2-5 on MVC road.
St John's won last five games, covered six of last seven, including three in row at home; Red Storm (+3.5) won 69-52 at Butler Jan 25, as Bulldogs made only 1-8 on arc. Butler lost its last four games, three by 8 or less points; they're 1-5 as road underdogs, with last three road losses by 9 or less points. Big East home favorites of 8+ points are 8-6 vs spread. St John's is 2-4 as a conference favorite this season.
Georgia won its last four games, three by 12+ points; favorites are 4-0 vs spread in its last four road games. Dawgs won four of last five games vs Tennessee, with three wins by 6 or less points- they won two of last three visits here. Vols lost three of last four games, but covered three in row as home favorite, with last three home wins by 7-16-19 points. SEC home favorites of 8+ points are 14-9 vs spread.
Home side won last six Boise-Colorado State games; Broncos lost three in row at Roby Arena, by 17-11-20 points. MWC home teams are 12-9 in games where spread was less than 4 points. Colorado State lost five of last seven games, losing last two by 9 points each- they're 3-3 at home in league. Boise lost three of last four games but beat New Mexico by point last game- they lost four of five MW road games, winning at Nevada.
San Diego State (-3) won 74-69 in OT at Utah State Jan 25, outscoring Aggies 20-2 on foul line; Aztecs were +11 in turnovers (6-17), trailed in last 5:00 by 4. MWC home favorites of 10+ points are 10-15 vs spread. Aggies won three of last four games, is 2-2 as road dog, losing games on road by 1-8-4-20-17 points, with lone win at Colorado State. Only one of Aztecs' last five wins was by more than nine points.
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CBB Tuesday Preview
By Dave Essler
Villanova at Providence: I wonder where Villanova's heads are at after the Creighton beating. Are they now vulnerable or did the just hit the Blue Jays at the wrong time. Certainly lean Providence to avenge another beating Villanova game them as well, and their stock may be back on the uptick after a few road losses. Friars have the size, but don't defend the perimeter too well, so they may need to work hard to slow this game down. I'd lean to either 'Nova and over, or Friars under. IMO the line movement in the total may be the key. Friars can still get a first round bye in the Conference Tournament, but their bench is pretty thin, so it may well get back to the pace of this game. Maybe Providence 1H.
Texas at Iowa State: Clearly Iowa State will be the public side here, so I'll look to back the Horns, probably. They lost to ISU at home and actually only sit a game behind Kansas in the Conference. However, they play the Jayhawks on the road Saturday, which is a factor, especially with them being so young. They do have a huge length advantage over ISU, so I can see a scenario where the Horns get a fair bit if second chance points. They do have three road wins in Conference, so this wouldn't be a stretch, and they do get to the line enough to where if ISU's thinner bench gets in foul trouble, Texas could hang.
Kentucky at Mississippi: Mississippi hasn't lost a conference home game, but they've play the second weakest SEC schedule. Two weeks ago they hung with the 'Cats in Lexington for a half before getting blown out. And in that game Kentucky only shot 2-13 from deep, but simply did not miss from inside, and went to the FT 26 more times. Mississippi has another home game Saturday against Florida, so where is the focus here. All the teams that have beaten Kentucky on the road this season have also been up-tempo teams, which the Rebels are. Even the last two road losses at UGA and at Auburn were both close games, so perhaps they're not playing as bad as the record might indicate. My biggest issue with the Rebels is they don't rebound defensively very well at all, but given the fact that they play defense, I can see this total being to high.
Kansas at Texas Tech: Don't sleep on Tubby Smith here. They've been playing pretty well and haven't been blown out in many games. At home, if they can slow this game down to their pace (slow) they've got a shot. Let's not forget how young Kansas actually is, and it's getting to "that point" in the season where people like Wiggins are playing minutes well beyond what they played in High School a year ago. If any of the Tech players have memories, Kansas hammered them twice last season, so at the start they should have some confidence. Perhaps Tech 1H as well. If Kansas does have a weakness it's not creating many turnovers, which could help the Red Raiders keep this game lower scoring, so there's a case here to fade Kansas, especially given that their only threat in the Conference is Texas (for the regular season title) and they play Texas Saturday.
Iowa at Indiana: Clearly Indiana has fallen out of any favor they might have been in at one point, but they're not as bad as the team that let Purdue roll them Saturday. I almost think the quick turnaround benefits them in some way, and they did beat both Michigan and Wisconsin at home. Iowa is not going to catch Michigan or Michigan State for one of the top two spots in the Conference Tournament, so is really playing for seeding here, in reality. They obvious key to me is whether the Hoosiers can protect the ball, which has been a problem for them. I'd like to think this game may go over, although it always depends on the number. Simple reason being that it'll be a fast paced game, both teams get to the line a lot, and shoot well from it.