Ohio State at Michigan State: What Bettors Need to Know
By Covers.com
Ohio State Buckeyes at Michigan State Spartans (OFF)
Aaron Craft produced two of the best offensive games of his four-year career against Michigan State last season and the Ohio State point guard will try to continue that trend when the No. 3 Buckeyes travel to the No. 4 Spartans for a Big Ten clash Tuesday. Craft scored his career high of 21 points when these teams met in their second conference game last season, and came back with 20 three weeks later when they collided in the conference tournament semifinal. Craft, who has just one other 20-point game in collegiate career, enters this matchup on a roll after earning Big Ten Player of the Week honors for his efforts last week against Purdue and Nebraska.
Michigan State will counter with shooting guard Gary Harris, who has battled an ankle injury that kept him out three games this season, but appears to be on the mend after scoring 26 points in 37 minutes – both season highs – in a 73-56 victory Saturday at Indiana. Michigan State 6-10 forward Adreian Payne poses a possible matchup problem, but will need to get more shot attempts than he did the last two games if he expects to have an impact. Payne, an Ohio native, combined for 11 field-goal attempts and nine points in the last two games after taking double-digit shot attempts and scoring no fewer than 16 in the previous five games.
LINE: The line and total are currently off the board.
ABOUT OHIO STATE (15-0, 8-6 ATS): The Buckeyes have been successful mostly because of their defense. Ohio State is surrendering an average of 54.9 points, tied for third-best in the nation, and has not allowed an opponent to hit the 70-point mark this season, their longest such streak since they went 22 games during the 2010-11 season. Perimeter defense has been a specialty as the Buckeyes are limiting the opposition to 24.3-percent shooting from 3-point distance, the lowest mark in Division I.
ABOUT MICHIGAN STATE (13-1, 7-4-2 ATS): The Spartans are shooting 39.3 from 3-point distance, which puts 38th in the nation. Harris has seen his long-range efficiency drop off this season, but point guard Keith Appling has connected on 47.2 percent of his 3s, up from 32 percent last season and 25 percent the year before. Travis Trice has been nearly as effective from downtown, hitting on 44.4 percent of his tries from beyond the arc.
TRENDS:
* Under is 4-0 in the last four meetings.
* Home team is 3-0-1 ATS in the last four meetings.
* Ohio State is 4-1-1 ATS in its last six meetings at Michigan State.
* Underdog is 6-2-1 ATS in the last nine meetings.
TIP-INS:
1. Ohio State’s bench has outscored the opposition’s reserves 325-177 this season.
2. Craft, who averages 4.9 assists, needs 39 to pass Bruce Douglas of Illinois (1982-86) to become the Big Ten’s all-time leader.
3. Michigan State F Matt Costello could return to the starting lineup in his third game back after missing four in December with mononucleosis.
Tuesday's Tip Sheet
By David Schwab
VegasInsider.com
It is a new year and that means that conference play in men’s college basketball is in full swing. Looking at the week ahead, two of the biggest matchups just so happen to fall on this Tuesday night’s schedule.
The first is a showdown between Baylor and Iowa State in the Big 12 followed by a Big Ten tilt between Ohio State and Michigan State. The following is a betting tip sheet for these two games plus a brief look at a top matchup in both the ACC and the AAC.
No. 7 Baylor Bears at No. 9 Iowa State Cyclones
The Bears rolled over Savannah State 80-50 this past Friday in one last tune-up before Tuesday’s conference opener. They bring a six-game winning streak and 12-1 straight-up record into this game, but there has not been a posted line in five of their last six games in what has been a less than challenging nonconference schedule. Baylor is 3-4 against the spread in games with a line and the total has stayed UNDER in four of those games.
The overall numbers have been impressive with 78.8 points a game on offense against just 63.9 points allowed on the other end of the court and the Bears are shooting 50.4 percent from the floor. Cory Jefferson has led the way with a team-high 14.2 points and 8.3 rebounds and Baylor as a team has four different players scoring in double figures.
Iowa State went a perfect 13-0 SU against its opponents outside the conference; however it was favored in 10 of 11 games with a posted line. The Cyclones have covered in four of their last five games to run their record ATS to 8-3. The total has stayed UNDER in four of their last five games after going OVER in five of their first six games this year. It has gone OVER in all five of their home games with a total line.
This is another team that has had little problem scoring with an average of 87 points a game, which is the eighth highest total in the nation. Iowa State is shooting 48.8 percent from the floor and pulling down an average of 41.4 rebounds a game. The big man in this lineup has been Melvin Ejim with 17.7 points and 7.6 rebounds, but both Georges Niang and DeAndre Kane are scoring over 15 points a game while combining for 11.1 rebounds and 9.6 assists.
Iowa State has been listed as a 6½-point home favorite over the Bears in this Big 12 battle.
The Cyclones have won four of the last five meetings both SU and ATS including a sweep both ways in last season’s two-game series. The total has gone OVER in the last four games between these two.
No. 3 Ohio State Buckeyes at No. 5 Michigan State Spartans
The Buckeyes opened play in the Big Ten with back-to-back victories over Purdue and Nebraska both SU and ATS to run their overall record to a perfect 15-0 on the year. They are 8-6 ATS after covering in seven of their last 10 games. The total went OVER in both conference wins after staying UNDER in five of their last six nonconference outings. It has stayed UNDER in nine of 14 games overall this season.
This is definitely not one of the highest scoring offenses in Division I with 75.7 points a game and Ohio State is ranked 133rd in the nation in rebounds with 36.8 a game. What makes this team so hard to beat is a total defensive effort that is holding opponents to just 54.9 points a game. LaQuinton Ross and Lenzelle Smith Jr. are each averaging over 12 points and Amir Williams is scoring 9.7 points while leading the team in rebounds with 6.5 a game.
Michigan State has just one SU loss on the year; a 79-65 setback to North Carolina on Dec. 4 as a 10-point home favorite. It is 13-1 SU with a 7-5-1 record ATS. The Spartans opened play in the Big Ten with two double-digit romps over Penn State and Indiana on the road while covering as favorites. They are 3-3 ATS at home this season and the total has stayed UNDER in four of the six games.
The Spartans will have the edge in scoring with 82.6 points a game while shooting a solid 48.6 percent from the floor. They will also have an advantage under the boards with an average of 41 rebounds a game. To get the win at home over their arch rivals, Michigan State will need another big night from both Gary Harris and Adreian Payne. So far, these two have combined for 34.3 points and 12.4 rebounds a game. Keith Appling has also been a key contributor with 15.6 points and a team-high 4.6 assists.
Michigan State comes into this contest as a 4½-point home favorite over the Buckeyes.
Looking back at some of the more interesting betting trends in this matchup, the underdog is 6-2-1 ATS in the last nine meetings and the total has stayed UNDER in the last four. The Buckeyes won last season’s series 2-1 SU (2-0-1 ATS).
Other Games to Watch
The Notre Dame Fighting Irish stunned Duke this past Saturday 79-77 as a 5½-point home underdog in its first ever conference game as a member of the ACC. The Fighting Irish will try and avoid a letdown this Tuesday when they welcome North Carolina State to South Bend. The Wolfpack come in at 10-4 SU with a 4-6-1 record ATS. They are 1-2 ATS on the road and the total has stayed UNDER in all three games. Notre Dame is also 10-4 SU with a 5-6-1 record ATS.
The American Athletic Conference features a matchup between two of its top teams when Cincinnati heads to Houston to face the Cougars this Tuesday night. The Bearcats are 13-2 SU overall and 2-0 in the AAC with victories over SMU and Memphis. They are 7-2 ATS and the total has stayed UNDER in eight of the nine games. Houston is also 2-0 in conference play with an overall mark of 10-5 SU. It has covered in six of 10 games and the total has stayed UNDER in seven of nine games with a posted line.
College Basketball Information
Rhode Island won its last five games with Saint Louis, beating Billikens last two years, when Rams were combined 15-45. URI won at LSU on Saturday, big road win for 9-6 Rams, their first top 100 win. St Louis is 4-0 in true road games, winning at Valpo/Vandy- they force turnovers 23.4% of time, #11 in country. Rams turn ball over 21% of time, shoot just 29.7% from arc.
Charleston's CAA debut comes vs James Madison team that won four of last five games after a 2-8 start. Dukes turn ball over 21.4% of time, shoot just 27.4% from arc- they're 3-6 on road, but beat NC-Wilmington by 5 in CAA road opener Saturday. Cougars won six of last eight games with a win at Davidson; they turn ball over 20.7% of time, make 30.5% from the arc.
Tennessee won its last five games with LSU, winning last three visits to Baton Rouge by 2-5-5 points, but Vols are 0-2 on road this year, losing at Xavier by 4, Wichita by 9. LSU had won five in row before home loss to Rhode Island Saturday; Tigers are 2-2 vs top 100 teams, 2-3 in games decided by 7 or less points. Tennessee is 1-4 in games decided by single digit margin; they're 3-3 vs top 100 teams.
Duke is out of top 10 for first time since November 2007; Blue Devils' opponents are shooting 50.8% inside arc- they're 2-3 vs top 100 teams, but Georgia Tech is #110. Duke won 14 of last 16 games against Tech, winning last five by 19-4-22-7-16 points. Jackets never led in last game at Maryland, losing 77-61- they're 1-5 vs top 100 teams, with all five losses by 10 points, only win at home vs Illinois.
Home side won 11 of last 12 Baylor-Iowa State games; Bears lost last six visits to Ames, with all six wins by 8+ points. ISU won last three in series by 8-8-5 points. Cyclones blew 15-point halftime lead Saturday in Lubbock, beat Tech by 11; they're 5-0 vs top 100 teams, with all five wins by 7 or less points. This is first true road game for Baylor, who played at D-II Chaminade in Maui, but that doesn't count.
Kansas State swept TCU by 13-11 points in Frogs' first season in Big X LY; Wildcats won last nine games after 2-3 start, upsetting Oklahoma State at home Saturday, but this is their first true road game- they're 2-2 on neutral floors, losing two of three at Puerto Rico tourney. TCU lost its three top 100 games by 8-21-5 points, losing to West Virginia 74-69 in conference opener Saturday.
Ill-Chicago swept Youngstown LY with both wins by 5- second game went three OTs, with Penguins shooting 28.6% inside arc- they're 2-8 in last ten visits to UIC- home side won 10 of last 13 series games. UIC is 5-10, 2-3 at home, losing last four games, last three by 13+. Youngstown allowed 83.5 ppg in losing first two Horizon road tilts by 6-16 points.
Notre Dame upset Duke in its ACC debut Saturday; four of its last five games were decided by 4 or less points or in OT. Irish have to get back to business vs NC State team that lost by 11 at home to Pitt Saturday, after jumping out to 17-2 lead. It was -14 when Wolfpack's plane got to South Bend Monday; State is 2-1 on road, losing by 11 at Cincinnati, winning at Tennessee by 7.
Michigan State-Ohio State are 7-7 in last 14 meetings; Buckeyes are 2-1 in last three visits here- teams split pair of close games in last two Big Dozen tourneys. OSU is 13-0, winning road games by 17 at Marquette, 9 at Purdue; opponents are making 24.3% from arc. Spartans won last six games, opening conference play with 16-17 road wins at Penn State and Indiana- their only loss was North Carolina at home.
Houston won first two AAC games by 4-9 points after couple of weird non-league losses to San Jose/ULL; Cougars are 7-1 at home- they're 0-5 if they allow 72+ points, 10-0 if they allow 70 or less. Cincinnati gave up 55 ppg in winning first two AAC games by 8-16 points, with a big win at Memphis Saturday. Bearcats force turnovers 25.1% of time, #7 on country- they play great defense, can struggle with the ball.
Vanderbilt won last three games with Alabama by 1-4-10 points; they're 3-2 in last five visits here, but are 0-2 on road this year, losing by in OT at Butler by 8, at Texas by 6- they're 0-4 vs top 100 teams. Alabama is 0-6 vs top 100 teams, with all six losses by 10 or less points. Tide lost last two home games to Wichita/Xavier- they're 1-6 in games decided by 9 or less points.
Creighton won its first two Big East games by 18-13 points; they're #3 in country, making 42.7% from arc; Bluejays are 3-0 road, with wins by . 4-17-3 points. DePaul scored 55 ppg in losing first two league games by 7-10 points; Blue Demons are amazingly bad 9-95 in last 103 league games; they've turned ball over 20.7% of time. DePaul scored average of 57.8 ppg in their last four games, not good.
Syracuse is 14-0, winning by 5 at St John's in only road game- they won ACC debut 49-44 over Miami at home Saturday (trailed by by 5 at 6:11 mark)- they allowed 54.2 ppg in last five games. Virginia Tech is 1-2 vs top 100 teams, losing to Michigan State by 19, VCU by 30, winning by 5 over West Virginia. Orange are #2 in countery, forcing turnovers 25.9% of time. Hokies are #6 in country, making 42.5% from arc.
Armadillosports.com
Baylor at Iowa State: What Bettors Need to Know
By Covers.com
Baylor Bears at Iowa State Cyclones (-7.5, OFF)
Two of the premier power forwards in the nation face off when No. 7 Iowa State hosts No. 9 Baylor in a Big 12 showdown Tuesday night. Melvin Ejim is averaging 17.7 points and 7.6 rebounds for the Cyclones and the 6-6 senior has led the way with four double-doubles this season. Cory Jefferson is a 6-9 senior for the Bears who’s averaging 14.2 points and 8.3 rebounds with five double-doubles.
Baylor should benefit from its size advantage with 7-1 center Isaiah Austin occupying the middle and 6-8 forward Rico Gathers averaging 7.9 points and 7.8 rebounds off the bench. Iowa State does well with the size it has, as 6-6 forward Dustin Hogue is averaging 12.6 points and 9.6 rebounds and 6-4 guard DeAndre Kane does it all with 15 points, 7.1 rebounds and 6.1 assists per game. Kane won Big 12 Player of the Week honors the last two weeks and an Iowa State player has won the award in six of nine weeks overall.
LINE: The line opened with Iowa State as 7.5-point faves. The total is currently off the board.
ABOUT BAYLOR (12-1, 3-4 ATS): A key for the Bears could be the contributions from starting guards Brady Heslip and Kenny Chery. Heslip is shooting 47.9 percent from beyond the arc, which has helped open up things up on the interior, and Chery is second on the team at 11.5 points, though he’s coming off back-to-back games in single digits for the first time this season. A wild card for the Bears could be 6-7 sophomore forward Taurean Prince, who is coming off consecutive games in double figures for the first time in his career.
ABOUT IOWA STATE (13-0, 8-3 ATS): Prince could find himself matched up against another 6-7 sophomore forward in Georges Niang, who is second in scoring for the Cyclones at 15.9. Niang has scored at least 14 points in each of the last seven games and presents a challenge because of his ability to score from inside and outside. Monte Morris, a freshman guard, will be looking to reach double figures in scoring in three straight games for the first time this season.
TRENDS:
* Over is 4-0 in the last four meetings.
* Home team is 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings.
* Baylor is 1-4 ATS in the last five meetings.
* Baylor is 0-7 ATS in the last seven meetings at Iowa State.
TIP-INS:
1. The Cyclones can set a program record with their 14th consecutive victory.
2. Iowa State has had at least four players score in double figures in every game this season.
3. Prince scored 15 first-half points all of last season, but combined for 26 first-half points in the last two games.