College Basketball Betting News and Notes Tuesday, March 29

Tuesday's NIT Semifinals
By Brian Edwards
VegasInsider.com

Brigham Young vs. Valparaiso

The Westgate SuperBook opened this NIT semifinals showdown at Madison Square Garden as a pick ‘em with a total of 146. As of early this morning, however, the Crusaders were listed as two-point favorites with a total of 146.5 points. The Cougars were +115 on the money line (risk $100 to win $115), leaving Valpo at -135.

Valparaiso (29-6 straight up, 17-14-1 against the spread) advanced to New York City by capturing a trio of home wins over Texas Southern (84-73), FSU (81-69) and Saint Mary’s (60-44). The Crusaders took the cash in the wins over the Seminoles and Gaels as 4.5 and 3.5-point home ‘chalk.’ In the win over Saint Mary’s, Valpo limited the Gaels to only 13 second-half points. Valpo won the battle on the boards by a 36-27 margin. Alec Peters scored 20 points, pulled down eight rebounds and dished out five assists without a committing a turnover. Keith Carter contributed 11 points, while Vashil Fernandez produced nine points, seven rebounds and six blocked shots.

Bryce Drew’s team owns a 6-9 spread record in 15 games as a single-digit favorite.

Valpo played seven games against teams in the NCAA Tournament field, going 4-3 both SU and ATS. The Crusaders smashed Iona 83-58 as 7.5-point home favorites and also won 63-57 at Oregon St. as one-point puppies. They lost 73-67 but covered as 6.5-point ‘dogs at Oregon, which eventually was a No. 1 seed and advanced to the Elite Eight.

Peters averages 18.5 points and 8.4 rebounds per game. The 6’9” junior forwards is shooting 51.1 percent from the field, 44.8 percent from downtown and 85.2 percent from the free-throw line. Carter (10.3 PPG) is the only other double-digit scorer, while Fernandez pulls down 7.4 RPG and 3.3 blocked shots per contest.

BYU (26-10 SU, 18-14 ATS) made its way to the Big Apple by winning three consecutive home games over UAB (97-79), Virginia Tech (80-77) and Creighton (88-82). The Cougars went 2-1 ATS with their only non-cover coming against the Hokies as eight-point home ‘chalk.’ Zac Seljaas buried 5-of-6 shots, all from 3-point land, en route to scoring 19 points and grabbing seven rebounds in the quarterfinals win over the Bluejays. Nick Emery added 17 points, seven boards and five assists. Star Kyle Collinsworth was limited to 20 minutes of playing time, but the senior forward still managed 10 points, five boards and four assists. Kyle Davis (18) and Chase Fischer (15) were also in double figures.

Collinsworth has destroyed the NCAA’s career record for triple-doubles by producing 12, including one in the win over UAB on March 16. He averages 15.2 points, 8.3 rebounds, 7.5 assists and 1.9 steals per game.

Fischer (18.2 PPG) is BYU’s leading scorer, hitting 36.8 percent of his treys. Emery, an explosive freshman guard, averages 16.2 PPG and has a 90/51 assists-to-turnovers ratio. Emery is second on the Cougars in steals (48).

BYU has been an underdog five times, posting a 2-3 spread record with one outright win at Gonzaga.

Dave Rose’s squad hasn’t lost to a team not named Gonzaga since falling to Pacific 77-72 as a 17-point home favorite on Feb. 6.

Rose’s team always plays at a frenetic pace, evidenced by its 84.0 PPG average that ranks sixth in the country.

Totals have been an overall wash (16-16) for the Crusaders, but they have watched ‘over’ go 6-2 in their last eight games.

The ‘over’ is 18-15 overall for the Cougars, 3-1 in their last four outings.

Tip-off is scheduled for 7:00 p.m. Eastern on ESPN.

San Diego State vs. George Washington

The Westgate opened San Diego State (28-9 SU, 17-13 ATS) as a three-point favorite with a total of 130.5 points. As of early this morning, the line remained at three with total down to 129. The Aztecs are -165 on the money line, while gamblers can take the Colonials at +145 to win outright (risk $100 to win $145). San Diego St. was favored by 1.5 points for first-half wagers.

Steve Fisher’s squad found its way to MSG in NYC with three consecutive home wins (SU and ATS) over IPFW (79-55), Washington (93-78) and Georgia Tech (72-56). San Diego State pulled away late in the second half to dispose of the Yellow Jackets as a five-point home favorite. Trey Kell scored a team-best 18 points thanks to 4-of-5 shooting from 3-point range. Winston Shepard added 12 points, five rebounds and two assists without a turnover, while Malik Pope posted a double-double with 10 points and 10 rebounds.

San Diego State owns an 11-6-1 spread record in 18 games as a single-digit favorite this year.

Shepard (11.4 PPG) averages team-highs in assists (3.1 APG) and rebounds (6.5 RPG). Kell is averaging a team-high 12.7 PPG.

San Diego State has one of the nation’s top defensive teams, ranking tops in field-goal percentage defense (37.1%). The Aztecs are third in the country in scoring defense (60.5 PPG) and is fifth in defending the three-point line (29.8%).

George Washington (26-10 SU, 16-16 ATS) beat Florida 82-77 as a 1.5-point home favorite in the quarterfinals. Tyler Cavanaugh drained 4-of-5 from long distance and scored a game-high 23 points for the winners. Kevin Larsen finished with 19 points, 13 rebounds and three assists. Patricio Garino had 13 points and eight boards.

Two nights before knocking off the Gators, GW collected an 87-71 win at Monmouth as a two-point road underdog. Cavanaugh was the catalyst with 22 points and 12 rebounds. Larsen added 19 points, five boards and five assists without a turnover. Garino finished with 19 points and six rebounds, while Joe McDonald had 16 points and seven boards.

GW’s toughest NIT game actually came in the opener when it slipped past Hofstra, 82-80.

George Washington went 4-4 ATS with three outright wins over teams in the NCAA field. The victims included Virginia, VCU and Seton Hall.

The ‘over’ is 18-15 for the Colonials after hitting in their last six straight games. This is the second-lowest total they have had seen this year. The previous low was 125 in a 73-68 win over Virginia as a 6.5-opint home underdogs that saw the 141 combined points go ‘over’ the tally.

The ‘under’ is 17-16 overall for the Aztecs, but they have watched the ‘over’ go 8-4 in their last 12 games.

This game will tip 30 minutes after the conclusion of BYU-Valpo.

Tuesday's Top Action
By Sportsbook.ag

BYU COUGARS (23-10) at VALPARAISO CRUSADERS (26-6)

Sportsbook.ag Line: Valparaiso -1, 146.5

No. 1 Valparaiso and No. 2 BYU look to keep their postseason title hopes alive when they play at Madison Square Garden on Tuesday night for a spot in the NIT final.

Coach Bryce Drew’s Crusaders (17-14-1 ATS) and coach Dave Rose’s Cougars (18-13-2 ATS) have both won three straight National Invitation Tournament home games to reach the semifinals on Tuesday evening. Valparaiso is 2-1 ATS in the NIT, having secured a spot based on their Horizon Conference regular season title.

The Crusaders lost their chance at an NCAA Tournament bid when they lost in their conference semifinals to Green Bay, 99-92, in overtime (Valparaiso -9), the Crusaders’ last game on a neutral court. The Crusaders had been 2-8 ATS, including an 84-73 opening round NIT win over Texas Southern, before covering in their last two victories, over Florida State (81-69, Valparaiso -4.5) and Saint Mary’s (60-44, Valparaiso -3.5), respectively.

Valparaiso is 13-4 SU on 3+ days rest, as their last win (over Saint Mary’s) was March 22nd, but the Crusaders are only 5-11-1 ATS with that type of rest. Valparaiso is 25-5 SU as a favorite (15-14-1 ATS), as the Crusaders have been favorites in every game they’ve played since a 73-67 loss at Oregon on Nov. 22 (Valparaiso +6.5).

BYU has earned a trip to Madison Square Garden on the strength of wins over UAB (97-79, BYU -9.5), Virginia Tech (80-77, BYU -8), and most recently, last Tuesday against Creighton (88-82, BYU -4). On 3+ days rest BYU is 16-3 (11-4-1 ATS). The Cougars were an at-large NIT selection after losing in the WCC semifinals to Gonzaga (88-84, BYU +4). BYU is 4-2 (3-2-1 ATS) in neutral site games this season, having much more experience in this type of setting than Valparaiso (0-1 SU, 0-1 ATS).

While the opening line for this game was PK, BYU has now found themselves as one-point underdogs; the Cougars are only 1-4 SU when not favored (2-2-1 ATS). Both BYU and Valparaiso had a common non-conference opponent in fellow NIT participant Belmont, as the Cougars defeated Belmont in Provo on Nov. 28th (95-81, BYU -6), while Valparaiso lost at Belmont a month later (85-81, Valparaiso -4.5).

BYU overcame postseason adversity in the form of star F Kyle Collinsworth (15.2 PPG, 8.3 RPG, 7.5 APG) coming down with the flu (limiting him to just 20 minutes) to still defeat Creighton and move on to New York City. Collinsworth has the NCAA record for career triple-doubles (12) and was the only player in the nation to average 8+ rebounds and 7+ assists per game this season.

While Collinsworth did put up triple-double number 12 against UAB in the first round of the NIT, it was reserve freshman G Zac Seljaas (7.8 PPG, 51.5% 3PT) elevating BYU into the NIT semifinals with a 19-point performance and a blistering 5-6 from three. Zeljaas is 9-12 3PT over three NIT games.

Senior G Chase Fischer (18.3 PPG, 3.1 3PM) has been truly excellent all tournament long, averaging 22 PPG and hitting four threes per game while fellow backcourt mate, G Nick Emery (16.2 PPG), is keeping up his season scoring average (16 PPG) while pitching in 4.7 RPG and 4 APG in three NIT games.

F Kyle Davis (12.1 PPG, 7.4 RPG) started out the tournament slow but poured in 18 points against Creighton when his offense was needed most. All these offensive weapons have led BYU to gaudy scoring numbers all season (83.6 PPG, 5th NCAA), and their fast pace (17th NCAA) has only increased over three NIT games (77.9 possessions-per-game in NIT).

BYU, however, averages close to 7 points less per game when not playing in the friendly confines of the Marriot Center, and their opponent will offer one of the stingiest defenses in the country and a much slower style of play. While BYU is a very good rebounding team (40.6 RPG, 15th NCAA), their opponent is even better.

The Cougars will have to take notes on Valparaiso’s last loss, a high scoring affair against Green Bay, in order to speed the Crusaders up. Valparaiso is 1-2 SU when allowing 80+ points.

Valparaiso’s impressive defense (62.2 PPG, 9th NCAA) will meet arguably its biggest challenge against a well-oiled offensive machine like BYU. The Crusaders have past experience against NCAA No. 1 seed Oregon and also have had to control high-powered offenses like Oakland and G Kay Felder, therefore Valparaiso should be well-prepared to slow down Collinsworth and company.

The Crusaders boast an impressive + 9.2 rebounding margin (6th NCAA) and usually get off to a very good start (allowing opponents to score just 28 first half points, 5th NCAA). Valparaiso holds teams to 38.9% FG (7th NCAA) and just 41.5% FG on two-pointers (3rd NCAA). The Crusaders can be vulnerable to the three at 33.6% 3PT (114th NCAA), and will have to keep a close eye on Seljaas, Fischer and Emery or else they could find themselves playing from behind.

While Valparaiso has players putting up impressive offensive statistics, their game-changer – especially in the NIT – has been 6-foot-10 senior F Vashil Fernandez (5.7 PPG, 7.4 RPG, 3.3 BPG). Fernandez has 15 blocks in the NIT thus far, more blocks over those three games by himself than all but one other team. Fernandez’s biggest enemy is foul trouble, as he only accrued two fouls against St. Mary’s and was able to post a line of 9 points, 7 rebounds and 6 blocks. How coach Drew deploys Fernandez when BYU is able to go to a lineup of five players who can all play on the perimeter will be interesting to see.

The Crusaders’ offense is led by one of the more underrated players in the nation, F Alec Peters (18.5 PPG, 8.4 RPG, 51.1% FG, 44.8% 3PT). Peters, a 6-foot-9 junior, is averaging an astounding 26.6 PPG over his last seven games, including 24.7 PPG, 61% FG, 43.8% 3PT in the NIT. Valparaiso has the depth advantage over BYU, boasting nine players who average 15+ minutes per game.

GEORGE WASHINGTON COLONIALS (26-10) at SAN DIEGO ST AZTECS (28-9)

Sportsbook.ag Line: San Diego State -3, 129

No. 4 George Washington, the lowest remaining seed, looks to keep its NIT title dreams alive when it faces No. 2 seed San Diego State on Tuesday night at Madison Square Garden.

George Washington (16-17 ATS) has outplayed their seed in their second straight appearance in the NIT under coach Mike Lonergan. The Colonials squeaked by No. 5 Hofstra in the opening round on a last-second shot (82-80, GWU -6), before beating No. 1 Monmouth (87-71, GWU +2) – the only road game any of the final four teams alive in the NIT have played to this point. The Colonials’ path to the semifinals culminated in a defeat of No. 2 Florida last Wednesday (home game for GWU) 82-77 (GWU -1.5).

San Diego State has been a buzzsaw through their bracket, defeating all three of their opponents at home by double-digits. Those victims, IPFW, Washington, and most recently Georgia Tech last Wednesday, all failed to shoot better than 28% 3PT against the stingy Aztec defense. While San Diego State’s elite defensive numbers don’t change much moving from the friendly confines of Viejas Arena, the Aztecs’ offense takes a severe hit, down from 71.3 PPG to 61.8 in six neutral site affairs. San Diego State is 3-3 (2-4 SU) in neutral sites.

The Aztecs, 3.5 point favorites in this game, are 21-5 (13-11-2 ATS) when favored on the season and 12-4 (8-5-2 ATS) on 3+ days rest. Winners of seven of their last eight games (6-2 ATS), San Diego State’s only blemish during that time was the Mountain West Conference championship game loss to Fresno State that kept the Aztecs out of the NCAA Tournament.

This is coach Steve Fisher’s second time taking the Aztecs to the NIT Semifinals (2009). George Washington, last losers in the Atlantic 10 Conference tournament quarterfinals to St. Joseph’s, had been 1-5 ATS in their previous six games before covers over Monmouth and Florida.

The Colonials are 3-6 (4-5 ATS) as an underdog this season, one of those wins coming at home in the season opener against another defensively stout team, then-No. 6 Virginia.

In total trends, the OVER is 8-4 in San Diego State’s last 12 games, while George Washington’s last six games have all been OVER.

While not quite a complete contrast in styles, something will have to give when George Washington – playing its best offensive basketball of the season – meets notoriously stingy and slow-paced San Diego State. The Colonials have consistently shot the ball well for over a month now, failing to dip below 40% FG in their last 11 contests. Meanwhile, San Diego State has only allowed two of their past eight opponents to shoot better than 40% FG.

Shooting 48.9% FG over their last three games, and outrebounding both Monmouth and Florida, the Colonials have gotten predictably solid production from their big three of F Tyler Cavanaugh (16.8 PPG, 7.5 RPG, 51% FG, 42.4% 3PT), F Kevin Larsen (12.3 PPG, 8.5 RPG) and G Patricio Garino (14.2 PPG, 51.2% FG). Averaging 21 PPG, 18 PPG, and 16.7 PPG respectively, Cavanaugh, Larsen and Garino have all elevated their games in the NIT.

Cavanaugh is shooting a remarkable 61.5% 3PT (2.7 3PM), including 4-5 3PT in the win over Florida in a 23-point performance, and 20-point double-doubles in the first and second-round games. Larsen has proven to be a great playmaker with his basketball IQ from the post, with 15 assists over three games.

Given George Washington’s lack of a true point guard, Larsen’s presence in this regard can’t be understated. Garino, the slashing Argentinian swingman, is shooting a team-high 63% FG (22-36) over his three NIT games. George Washington’s rotation only goes six players deep, so continued excellence from Cavanaugh, Larson and Garino in the face of arguably the best defense in the NIT field will be needed if the Colonials want to advance further.

Should the Colonials have the lead late, they’re one of the better free throw shooting teams in the nation (75.1% FT, 23rd NCAA). George Washington is also very strong on the glass (+5.5 Rebound Margin, 34th NCAA) buoyed by their ability to keep opponents off the glass (32.5 Opp RPG, 39th NCAA).

San Diego State’s elite defense has been on display all season (60.7 PPG, 3rd NCAA; 37.1% FG, 1st NCAA) and that hasn’t changed during NIT play. What has changed, and led to arguably the most dominating resume of all NIT teams, is the way San Diego State is shooting (47.6% FG over last three). The Aztecs shot just 42.2% FG this season (252nd NCAA).

Even more impressive, San Diego State is shooting 45.2% 3PT in the NIT, in stark contrast to their 33.2% 3PT regular season mark (243rd NCAA). George Washington has a slightly above-average defense, and the Aztecs are capable of going cold against just about anyone, but should this shooting even stay at a slightly lower elevated rate of success, then San Diego State is going to be a tough out in MSG.

G Trey Kell (12.7 PPG, 38.9% 3PT) is the Aztecs’ leading scorer and has led the charge for more offense, coming out on fire, hitting 8-13 from deep (61.5% 3PT) including 4-5 from three in their last win over Georgia Tech.

Multifaceted F Winston Shepard (11.4 PPG, 6.5 RPG, 3.1 APG) has also shot much better than his season mark of 39.2% FG, as the talented senior is 15-32 in the NIT to go along with 8 rebounds and 6 assists per game. Shepard had a triple-double in the opening round win over IFPW. Maybe more responsible for San Diego State’s offensive improvement than anyone else, sophomore F Malik Pope (7.4 PPG, 5 RPG) may finally be realizing the potential that made him such a tantalizing prospect out of high school.

The lanky talent has three double-doubles in his last four games and is averaging 13.6 PPG over his last eight games. Unlike George Washington, the Aztecs aren’t afraid to dip into their bench, where nine players are averaging more than 12 minutes of playing time in the NIT.