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College Basketball Betting News and Notes Wednesday 3/14

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Last Post by blade 13 years ago

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blade

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NCAAB Preview

Lamar-Vermont both have coaches in first year at their school; Lamar is one of most experienced teams in country- they were #3 Southland seed, Vermont was #2 in its league, and won true road game to get automatic bid. Southland teams are 2-9 in tournament last nine years, with UTSA winning play-in game LY, its only previous appearance in game. This is first play-in game for America East, which is 1-9 in NCAAs over last nine years, with lone win Vermont's win over Syracuse in '06. Cardinals have five seniors in their rotation; four of top six Vermont players are freshman/sophs. Lamar plays the #121 pace, Vermont #282.

Pac-12 gets killed in media, but since 2007, their teams are 17-7 in first round games (10-2 last three years); Cal Bears won last 16 games when they allowed less than 70 points- they've lost three of last four games, a red flag. South Florida plays great defense, hideous offense; they're very relieved to be here, after being one of last teams announced Sunday nite. Bulls scored less than 60 points in last seven games, splitting their last six. USF turns ball over 22.9% of time, shoot 31% from arc, play #342 pace, so they play ugly games. Three of Cal's top five guys are freshmen or sophs. Three of USF's top six guys are seniors.

Other Three Tournaments

Short notes on the games in the other tournaments, where motivation is a great x-factor.

Manhattan @ Albany-- MAAC road teams are 4-8 vs spread when line is 3 or less points. Albany split pair with MAAC teams this year, with win over Rider by 9, losing at Siena by 4.

Yale @ Fairfield-- Yale lost its last three road games, by 15-7-21 points. MAAC home favorites are 5-8 against the spread.

Bowling Green @ Oakland-- MAC road underdogs of 6 or less points are 7-10 against spread. Oakland is 0-2 vs MAC teams this year, losing by by 2 to Ohio, by 15 to Western Michigan.

Minnesota @ LaSalle-- Atlantic 14 home favorites of less than 6 points are 11-6 vs spread. Big Dozen road underdogs of 6 or less are 7-3.

Central Florida @ Drexel-- Dragons are one team that feels they should be in NCAAs; CAA home favorites of 7 or less points are 7-8. UCF lost its last four road games, by 4-9-29-31 points.

Northern Iowa @ St Joe's-- MVC road underdogs of 7 or less points are 13-10. A-14 home favorites of 7 or less points are 14-7 vs spread.

Valparaiso @ Miami-- Valpo lost its conference final on its home court; one of its big men was hampered by leg injury. ACC double digit home favorites are 18-16 vs spread.

Bucknell @ Arizona-- Bucknell lost final of its conference tournament on their home court. Arizona lost finals of Pac-12 tourney by a basket. Pac-12 teams were 4-0 vs spread in games played last night.

Nevada @ Oral Roberts-- ORU had won 20 of last 21 games before they got upset in semis of Summit League tourney. WAC road underdogs of 7 or less points are 9-6 vs spread.

Illinois State @ Ole Miss-- Redbirds lost in MVC finals, after upetting Wichita State in semis. SEC single digit home favorites are 9-8 vs spread.

Wofford @ Pitt-- SoCon road underdogs of 10-21 points are 12-19 vs spread this season. Panthers had their worst season in over a decade-- they went 6-15 in their last 21 games.

Quinnipiac @ Penn-- Quakers lost on last day of Ivy League season; it kept them from having playoff game with Harvard. Quinnipiac is #1 offensive rebounding team in country- they beat Yale by 6, in only game against an Ivy League team this season.

Delaware @ Butler-- CAA single digit road underdogs are 9-19 against the spread. Have to question Butler's will to be here after playing for a national title in each of the last two seasons.

North Dakota State @ Wyoming-- MWC home favorites of 7+ points are 17-10 against the spread. Bison lost nine of their last 13 games.

Western Illinois @ Oregon State-- Leathernecks lost Summit League final in OT; they play tough defense, while Oregon State wants to run. Pac 12 double digit home favorites are 17-21 against the spread.

Buffalo @ American-- MAC road teams are 8-13 vs spread if number is 4 or less points. Buffalo's last three games were won by 3 or less points.

North Dakota @ Drake-- Bulldogs went 5-8 in their last 13 games; they shoot only 64.7% from foul line. MVC double digit home favorites are 7-7 vs spread.

Rice @ UL-Lafayette-- Underdogs are 13-6 in C-USA road games when spread is 3 or less points. Ragin' Cajuns beat Central Florida 61-60 in their only game against a C-USA team this season.

UCSB @ Idaho-- Gauchos lost Big West final late Saturday night, now have long road trip up to Idaho, where its probably little colder than Santa Barbara. WAC home teams are 6-10 vs spread if number is 5 or less points.

CS-Bakersfield @ Utah State-- WAC double digit home favorites out of conference are 8-0 against the spread. Bakersfield is 0-5 vs WAC teams this seasonl with three of the five losses by 13+ points.

Fullerton @ LMU-- Titans handed Long Beach its only conference loss, then got upset by UC-Irvine in first round of Big West tourney, just as LMU did in WCC tournament, losing to San Francisco. Fullerton makes 40.4% behind arc; they've won eight of their last ten games.

Armadillosports.com

Posted : March 13, 2012 7:23 am

blade

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March Madness First Four Betting
Sportspic.com

Lamar Cardinals vs. Vermont Catamounts

The College Basketball Betting experts who follow the smaller conferences will tell you that Lamar is unbeaten – a robust 6-0 – ever since coach Pat Knight read the riot act to the senior players on his team in a public and very uncomfortable press conference. Lamar is riding a wave of momentum at this point, while Vermont barely scraped past Stony Brook in what was an ugly, choppy America East Tournament championship game. Lamar is playing better at the moment, and that’s as good a reason as any to tab the Cardinals in this First Four game.
College Basketball Betting Pick: Lamar

California Golden Bears vs. South Florida Bulls

These are two teams who did absolutely nothing in non-conference play, failing to win the marquee games they scheduled in November and December. Cal and South Florida then won at least 12 conference games against largely mediocre opponents. Cal won 13 games against a weak Pac-12 field that produced only one other NCAA Tournament team. South Florida played an imbalanced schedule that yielded only one particularly notable Big East win, a road triumph over Louisville. These two teams stand on equal footing. Does California have enough offensive depth and balance to withstand South Florida’s withering defensive pressure? The answer here is no. The Pac-12 has been awful all season long. Don’t expect anything to change now. College Basketball Betting Pick South Florida.

Posted : March 13, 2012 9:22 am

blade

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NCAA Tournament Betting Preview
Sportsmemo.com

Lamar -3 vs. Vermont O/U 130

Rob Veno Power Rating: Lamar -2

Betting Take: Play-in game with the winner getting top seed North Carolina. Lamar made headlines a few weeks ago after head coach Pat Knight bashed his team for not knowing how to win. The Cardinals responded by winning six straight – all by double-digits – including the Southland Tournament. According to Ken Pom, Lamar is the most experienced team in the country with virtually the entire roster comprised of juniors and seniors. They faced a very tough non-conference slate: at Louisville, at Ohio State and at Kentucky. Vermont has now reached the postseason four straight years. They acquitted themselves well when asked to step up in class with close losses to tournament teams South Florida, Harvard and Iona. Should be a fairly competitive contest with Lamar ranked no. 102 and Vermont no. 120 based on Ken Pom's ratings.

No. 12 South Florida vs. No. 12 California -3 O/U 115

Rob Veno Power Rating: California -1.5

Betting Take: Play-in game with the winner taking on Temple. No question South Florida played a favorable Big East schedule but the Bulls still won 12 league games in one of the best conferences in the country while California didn't even win the PAC-12 regular season or the PAC-12 Tournament. The Golden Bears have the advantage on offense with multiple players who can score from all over the court. But South Florida has one of the best defenses in the tournament – even when accounting for the slow pace of its games. The Bulls ranked first in the Big East in effective field goal percentage defense (42.1%) and 2-point field goal percentage (42.2%). In comparison, Cal ranked 4th in both categories in the much weaker PAC-12. The total is certainly reflective of USF’s ability to control tempo. In Big East play, only once (a blowout vs. Georgetown) did a game involving the Bulls top 64 possessions.

Posted : March 13, 2012 9:41 am

blade

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NCAA Preview & Pick: Vermont vs. Lamar
By Covers.com

Vermont Catamounts vs. Lamar Cardinals (-3, 129)

THE STORY: Pat Knight never reached the NCAA tournament while coaching at Texas Tech but the son of legendary Bobby Knight led the Cardinals into the Big Dance with a rout of McNeese State over the weekend. The younger Knight ripped his team’s seniors a couple of weeks ago and then watched them roll through the Southland Conference Tournament to earn a spot in the NCAA for the first time since 2000. There they’ll play America East perennial power Vermont (which shocked Syracuse as the 13-seed in 2005 for its only NCAA tournament victory) in a battle of 16-seeds in a first-round game at Dayton, Ohio on Wednesday. The Catamounts have reached the NCAA tournament five times. The winner plays No. 1 seed North Carolina on Friday.

ABOUT LAMAR (23-11): The Cardinals won their conference championship as the third seed but may have caught a break as their opponent in the final, McNeese State, knocked off the No. 1 seed Texas-Arlington. Still, Lamar avenged a 12-point regular-season loss to win the finale in convincing fashion getting 26 points from Mike James. Knight drew national headlines when he said his seniors were “stealing money by being on scholarship.” After they won the Southland title his critics called it brilliant motivation for the high-scoring Cardinals who average nearly 74 points per game.

ABOUT VERMONT (23-11): The Catamounts needed two overtimes to survive a semifinal round in the America East tournament against lowly Hartford which started the season at 0-13. First-year coach John Becker then preached defense in its conference title game matchup with Stony Brook and the Catamounts responded with a 51-43 victory despite scoring just five points in the final 10 minutes of the game. Becker’s squad displayed a ton of poise becoming just the fourth team in the tourney’s history to win the championship on the road and it did so in front of a raucous sold-out crowd of over 4,200. Vermont’s last NCAA appearance was in 2010 and all of its bids have been since 2003. They’ve won 14 of their last 15 games overall.

TRENDS:

- Lamar is 5-1 against the spread in its last six.
- The over is 10-2 in Vermont's last 12 non-conference games.
- Vermont is 2-5 against the spread in its last seven as an underdog.

PICK: Lamar

Posted : March 13, 2012 9:44 pm

blade

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NCAA Preview & Pick: South Florida vs. California
By Covers.com

South Florida Bulls vs. California Golden Bears (-3, 115)

THE STORY: A pair of teams squarely on the bubble heading into Selection Sunday will meet in a first-round contest Wednesday night at Dayton, Ohio. California was the lone at-large selection from the Pac-12 Conference and now hopes to run the ball against defensive-minded South Florida in a matchup of contrasting styles. The Bulls apparently punched their ticket to the dance with a solid two-game run in the Big East tournament and will be making their first appearance in the NCAA tourney since 1992. The winner of the battle of 12-seeds advances to Nashville to face No. 5 Temple on Friday.

ABOUT CALIFORNIA (24-9): Cal’s loss to eventual Pac-12 tournament champion Colorado made for some anxious moments for the Bears which were viewed as the conference’s top team throughout the regular season but faded down the stretch. Cal finished second to Washington (which did not get an NCAA bid) in the regular season at 13-5 and is led by Pac-12 Player of the Year Jorge Gutierrez, a fearless competitor who admitted he succumbed to pressure late in the year. Cal isn’t deep but its starting five is formidable. The Bears have reached the NCAA three of the past four years and need a strong game from sharp-shooter Allen Crabbe who buried 81 3-pointers this season. The Bears, however, limp into the tourney losers of three of their last four games.

ABOUT SOUTH FLORIDA (20-13): The Bulls finished 12-6 in the Big East to earn a first-round bye in the conference tourney and then posted a much-needed win over Villanova in their first game at MSG. South Florida nearly reached the final falling to Notre Dame in overtime in the semifinals after it blew a lead late in the game. South Florida averages just 59 ppg (Cal scores 71.7) and USF doesn’t have a single player averaging in double figures. The Bulls are 0-2 all-time in NCAA play. South Florida has won seven of its last 10 games but was 1-6 against teams who were ranked in the top 25 at the time of those meetings.

TRENDS:

- The under is 9-1 in California's last 10 neutral-site games.
- South Florida is 7-3 against the spread in its last 10.
- The under is 22-6 in South Florida's last 28.

PICK: Bulls

Posted : March 13, 2012 9:45 pm

blade

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Wednesday's Best NIT Bets
By Covers.com

Valparaiso Crusaders at Miami Hurricanes (-11, 135)

Miami reached the NIT quarterfinals a year ago before losing 79-64 to Alabama. The Hurricanes must shake off the disappointment of being left out of the NCAA field to go further this time around.

That will be tougher if leading scorer Durand Scott, declared ineligible Friday for receiving impermissible benefits, is not reinstated by the NCAA. Miami has wins over Florida State and Duke.

The Hurricanes probably needed one more victory to get an NCAA at-large bid, but they have the tools to make a long NIT run. Scott, if he returns, simply gives a balanced lineup another threat. Rion Brown, starting in Scott’s place against Florida State in the ACC quarterfinals, had 13 points and has averaged 10.4 over the last five games. Kenny Kadji, a 6-foot-11 forward, is second in scoring (12.3) and shoots 42.4 percent from 3-point range. The Hurricanes will need more from burly center Reggie Johnson, who is averaging just 7.0 points over the last eight games.

Horizon League regular-season champion Valparaiso, making its 11th postseason appearance in 17 years, is an efficient offensive team. The Crusaders are shooting 55.2 percent from inside the 3-point arc.

Pick: Over

Bucknell Bison at Arizona Wildcats (-8.5, 132)

Arizona saw its NCAA tournament hopes disappear when it fell to Colorado in the Pac-12 championship game. Now, the top-seeded Wildcats will have to regroup for their first-round NIT matchup with No. 8 seed Bucknell. Arizona is making its first NIT appearance since 1951.

The Bison were also a win shy of the NCAA tournament, but they suffered an 82-77 setback against Lehigh in the Patriot League final. The Wildcats are 0-3 all-time in the tournament and this will be the teams' first meeting.

After winning the Pac-10 title and advancing to the NCAA tournament’s Elite Eight last season, Arizona experienced a bit of a dropoff this season. The Wildcats finished fourth in the Pac-12, two games behind first-place Washington. A sluggish start, which included four non-conference losses, ultimately hurt the Wildcats, as did an ugly 87-80 loss at Arizona State in the regular-season finale.

Kyle Fogg averages a team-high 13.7 points for Arizona, which is 14-3 at home. Solomon Hill adds 12.9 points and a team-high seven rebounds per game.

Pick: Wildcats

Posted : March 13, 2012 9:59 pm

blade

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Posts: 318493

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LAMAR (23 - 11) vs. VERMONT (23 - 11) - 3/14/2012, 7:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
VERMONT is 19-8 ATS (+10.2 Units) after a conference game since 1997.
LAMAR is 15-5 ATS (+9.5 Units) in road games in non-conference games since 1997.
LAMAR is 15-5 ATS (+9.5 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record since 1997.
LAMAR is 8-0 ATS (+8.0 Units) in road games versus good defensive teams - allowing <=64 points/game since 1997.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
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S FLORIDA (20 - 13) vs. CALIFORNIA (24 - 9) - 3/14/2012, 9:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CALIFORNIA is 39-24 ATS (+12.6 Units) as a favorite over the last 3 seasons.
CALIFORNIA is 89-64 ATS (+18.6 Units) in road games after a conference game since 1997.
S FLORIDA is 8-2 ATS (+5.8 Units) on Wednesday games this season.
CALIFORNIA is 21-43 ATS (-26.3 Units) versus good defensive teams - allowing <=64 points/game after 15+ games since 1997.
CALIFORNIA is 5-15 ATS (-11.5 Units) versus poor offensive teams - scoring <=64 points/game after 15+ games since 1997.
CALIFORNIA is 12-25 ATS (-15.5 Units) versus poor offensive teams - scoring <=64 points/game since 1997.