Wednesday's Best NIT Bets
By Covers.com
Minnesota Golden Gophers at Middle Tennessee State Blue Raiders (-3, 134)
A road victory over an in-state rival combined with Minnesota's upset of Miami gave Middle Tennessee State a home game with a chance to earn a trip to the NIT semifinals.
The Blue Raiders used a phenomenal finish - they closed the game on a 15-0 run - to knock off top-seeded Tennessee on Monday, setting up a home contest against Minnesota, which was dominant from the outset in a 78-60 win at Miami in the second round.
The No. 6-seed Golden Gophers have been road warriors in the tournament, winning at La Salle in the first round and at Miami in the second round. They never trailed against the Hurricanes, opening the game on a 12-0 run and extending their 12-point halftime lead with a 15-2 run early in the second half.
Perhaps the most impressive part of Minnesota's run through the first two rounds is that it has come without 6-foot-11 senior Ralph Sampson III, who averages 7.9 points and 4.6 rebounds and provides a menacing presence in the post. Sampson was expected to return for the opener against La Salle but still has not made his return from a knee injury.
Minnesota is one of six teams with 25 or more wins in the history of the NIT. The Gophers have reached at least the second round in 11 of their 14 NIT appearances.
Pick: Golden Gophers
Nevada Wolf Pack at Stanford Cardinal (-6, 137.5)
Less than 48 hours after rallying to beat Illinois State in overtime, third-seeded Stanford hosts No. 5-seed Nevada in the NIT quarterfinals with a trip to New York’s Madison Square Garden on the line.
Nevada, the Western Athletic Conference regular season champion, opened the NIT with wins over Oral Roberts and Bucknell, and the Wolf Pack have won nine of their last 11 games.
The Wolf Pack advanced to the quarterfinals for the first time in program history after forward Olek Czyz scored 24 points in the team’s 75-67 victory over eighth-seeded Bucknell on Sunday.
WAC Player of the Year Deonte Burton averages a team-high 14.8 points, and his matchup with Stanford point guard Chasson Randle should be worth the price of admission. One win away from equaling the school record of 29 victories set in 2006-07, Nevada held opponents to 40.9 percent shooting to lead the WAC.
Like Nevada, Stanford is a solid defensive team that holds opponents to an average of 63.7 points.
Pick: Wolf Pack
NCAAB Preview
Middle Tennessee had huge win Monday, winning at Tennessee, which avenged 30-point loss to Vols LY- they outscored Tennessee 15-0 over final 6:00 of play, won 71-64. Blue Raiders won last 13 home games- they lost in double OT at home to Belmont Nov 20. Minnesota already has road wins at LaSalle/Miami in this tourney- they shot 58% in easy win at Miami Monday. Sun Belt home favorites of 7 or less points are 9-5 vs spread. Big Dozen road underdogs of 5 or less points are 8-2.
Nevada beat Oral Roberts/Bucknell to get here; they move up in class to try and get to NYC. Stanford survived Illinois State making 15-30 from arc in 92-88 OT win Monday, its third straight win at home (by 5-11-4 points); Cardinal beat Fresno State by 16, in its only game vs WAC foe this season. Nevada is 2-0 vs Pac-12 teams, beating Washington/ ASU at home. Pac-12 home favorites of less than 7 points are 5-8 against the spread; WAC road underdogs of 8 or less points are 11-7 vs spread.
Pitt's season LY was ruined by 71-70 loss to Butler in second round of NCAAs, when Panthers committed a dumb foul at end to give Bulldogs winning points, now they meet again. Panthers have had losing streaks of eight and five games this season, but beat Wofford/Princeton to get here. Big East road teams are 12-13 vs spread in games where spread was 3 or less points; Horizon home teams are 5-9 when spread is less than 5 points. Butler won nine of its last eleven games.
Washington State swept both regular season games with Oregon State, winning 81-76/83-73, then lost to the Beavers 69-64 in Pac-12 tourney two weeks ago in LA. Coogs beat San Francisco/Wyoming to get here; Oregon State won six of last seven games, losing only to Arizona in Pac-12 tourney when they were playing third night in row. Both teams won by 20 points Monday, but Wazzu has to travel on short rest. Pac-12 home favorites of 7 or less points are 13-21-1 against the spread, but home favorites of 7+ points are 22-10-1 (33-29-2 total).
Mercer upset Georgia State at home Saturday, now they hit road, visit another club from CAA; Bears lost at Jacksonville/North Florida in last two road games, which were four weeks ago. Mercer's win Sunday was their first this year in seven games against top 100 teams. Old Dominion won six of last eight games; they beat SC-Upstate, another Atlantic Sun team, to get to here. CAA home favorites of 8 or less points are 10-12 against the spread. Mercer had extra day to rest/prepare for this game.
Fairfield beat MAAC rival Manhattan to get here; Stags beat Quinnipiac by 12 in its only game vs NEC opponent this season. Robert Morris has wins at Indiana State/Toledo to get here- they won at Ohio U when they somehow survived turning ball over 31 times, and is 6-2 in its last eight away games. MAAC home favorites are 6-8 vs spread in non-conference games. RMC beat St Peter's by 17 in only game vs MAAC opponent. Fairfield turns ball over way too much, makes just 64.7% on foul line.
Loyola Marymount is on road for first time since upsetting St Mary's Feb 15; Lions are 9-4 in last 13 games, 7-1 in last eight on road, losing only at Gonzaga by 19. Utah State won five of last six games, since loss in Bracket Buster game at home to UCSB; Aggies beat BYU by 7 in its only game vs WCC opponent. Utah State is 3-8 against teams ranked in top 150. WCC road underdogs of 7 or less points are 6-10-2 vs spread; WAC home favorites of 7 or less are 7-10 against the spread.
Armadillosports.com
MINNESOTA (21 - 14) at MIDDLE TENN ST (27 - 6) - 3/21/2012, 7:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.
Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
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NEVADA (28 - 6) at STANFORD (23 - 11) - 3/21/2012, 9:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.
Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
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PITTSBURGH (19 - 16) at BUTLER (22 - 14) - 3/21/2012, 8:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.
Head-to-Head Series History
BUTLER is 1-0 against the spread versus PITTSBURGH over the last 3 seasons
BUTLER is 1-0 straight up against PITTSBURGH over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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WASHINGTON ST (17 - 16) at OREGON ST (21 - 14) - 3/21/2012, 10:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.
Head-to-Head Series History
WASHINGTON ST is 4-3 against the spread versus OREGON ST over the last 3 seasons
WASHINGTON ST is 5-2 straight up against OREGON ST over the last 3 seasons
4 of 7 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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MERCER (24 - 11) at OLD DOMINION (22 - 13) - 3/21/2012, 7:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
OLD DOMINION is 70-97 ATS (-36.7 Units) after allowing 60 points or less since 1997.
OLD DOMINION is 6-15 ATS (-10.5 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
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ROBERT MORRIS (26 - 10) at FAIRFIELD (21 - 14) - 3/21/2012, 7:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
FAIRFIELD is 15-30 ATS (-18.0 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games since 1997.
Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
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LOYOLA-MARYMOUNT (21 - 12) at UTAH ST (19 - 15) - 3/21/2012, 9:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
LOYOLA-MARYMOUNT is 68-96 ATS (-37.6 Units) after a non-conference game since 1997.
LOYOLA-MARYMOUNT is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) in road games this season.
LOYOLA-MARYMOUNT is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) in road lined games this season.
Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
MERCER vs. OLD DOMINION
No trends available
Old Dominion is 2-4-1 ATS in its last 7 games at home
Old Dominion is 9-2 SU in its last 11 games at home
MINNESOTA vs. MIDDLE TENNESSEE
No trends available
Middle Tennessee is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games at home
Middle Tennessee is 13-1 SU in its last 14 games at home
ROBERT MORRIS vs. FAIRFIELD
No trends available
Fairfield is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Fairfield's last 6 games
PITTSBURGH vs. BUTLER
The total has gone UNDER in 16 of Pittsburgh's last 22 games on the road
Pittsburgh is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games on the road
Butler is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Butler's last 5 games
LOYOLA MARYMOUNT vs. UTAH STATE
Loyola Marymount is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Loyola Marymount's last 5 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Utah State's last 5 games at home
Utah State is 20-5 SU in its last 25 games at home
NEVADA vs. STANFORD
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Nevada's last 5 games on the road
Nevada is 11-1 SU in its last 12 games on the road
Stanford is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Stanford's last 5 games
WASHINGTON STATE vs. OREGON STATE
Washington State is 3-9 ATS in its last 12 games when playing on the road against Oregon State
Washington State is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games when playing on the road against Oregon State
Oregon State is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
Oregon State is 10-5 SU in its last 15 games when playing at home against Washington State
CBB CHEAT-SHEET
By Scott Spreitzer
MINNESOTA v. MTSU: MTSU must not let-up after beating "big brother" Tennessee last time out. Gophers a bit banged-up. Tubby Smith's first wins in postseason non-conf tourneys as HC of Minnesota. Minny = 56 of 102, 54.9% in 2 NIT wins. 67-39 rebound advantage over La Salle and Miami combined.
NEVADA v. STANFORD: A quiet 25-3 SU run by Nevada to get here. 10 players have seen action in at least 31 of 34 games. Four players average between 14.8 and 10.5 ppg. Cardinal = young, but big and deep. Almost got burned getting into 3-point contest with Illinois State. No home-court advantage. Maples had less than 2,000 in attendance for each of the first 2 Stanford NIT tilts.
PITTSBURGH v. BUTLER: Both teams playing to win, rather than moping about their CBI "relegation." Revenge opportunity for last year's last-second tourney loss for Pitt. Panthers banging teams in CBI, while Butler has found their team chemistry winning 10 of last 13.
WASHINGTON STATE v. OREGON STATE: Cougars last 60 minutes of basketball (full game v. Wyo; 2nd half v. USF) have outscored the opposition 115-82! Beavers beat the Cougs in the Pac-12 tourney 69-64 after losing both regular season meetings. OSU = 76-118, 64.4% FT's last 5 games, but 69-106, 65% FG shooting in 2 CBI tilts.