Game of the Day: Duke at North Carolina
By Covers.com
Duke Blue Devils at North Carolina Tar Heels (+2.5, 156)
North Carolina will try to run its record to 4-0 against the teams that opened the season ranked in the top four in the preseason coaches’ poll, hosting No. 9 Duke in a pivotal ACC game Wednesday night. The Tar Heels have already knocked off No. 8 Louisville, No. 10 Michigan State and No. 13 Kentucky, but will need another win against a ranked opponent for a chance to get back into the top 25. More importantly, a victory for North Carolina would bring the Tar Heels closer to the top four in the conference standings.
North Carolina has won five in a row, all by double digits, to get back into the thick of the ACC race. Duke had its own five-game winning streak in ACC play interrupted by a loss to top-ranked Syracuse on Feb. 1, but the Blue Devils have reeled off back-to-back wins against Wake Forest and Boston College. Jabari Parker is coming off career highs in points (29) and rebounds (16) in the win against Boston College.
LINE HISTORY: Duke opened as a 2.5-point road favorite with oddsmakers suggesting a total of 156 points.
COVERS POWER RANKINGS: Duke (-15.85) - North Carolina (-9.25) - Home Court (-3.0) = Duke -3.6
WHAT BOOKS SAY: "Duke-UNC is one of the biggest matchups of our NCAA year and it draws one of our largest nights in terms of action where we can see around three times of what you could see for an average late season game.” - Jeff Stoneback, sportsbook manager MGM Mirage Las Vegas.
WHAT SHARPS SAY: "Both teams are red hot. North Carolina in on a 5-0 SU/ATS run. Duke is 7-1 SU and ATS in its last eight with that lone loss in OT at Syracuse. Duke has played a much tougher schedule over that span with Pitt and Syracuse on the road and Virginia at home." - Covers Expert Steve Merril.
WHY BET DUKE (19-5 SU, 16-8 ATS, 12-11 O/U): Rodney Hood loses a lot of attention to Parker, but the 6-8 sophomore forward might by the Blue Devils’ most consistent player. He’s coming off back-to-back games scoring in single digits for the first time this season, so look for the Mississippi native to be extra focused for his first game against the Tar Heels. The other sophomore forward for Duke, 6-9 Amile Jefferson, is up to 66 percent shooting from the floor this season after making all three of his attempts in Saturday’s win against Boston College.
WHY BET NORTH CAROLINA (16-7, 12-11 ATS, 10-12 O/U): James Michael McAdoo will likely get the task of trying to guard Hood or Jefferson at the outset. McAdoo hasn’t had any trouble with his offensive game in a while, reaching double figures in scoring the last 16 games. McAdoo has lost three out of four in his career against Duke, including both games on his home floor, so look for a top-notch effort from the 6-9 junior forward.
TRENDS:
* Blue Devils are 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings in North Carolina.
* Under is 5-1 in the last six meetings in North Carolina.
* Under is 8-2 in the last 10 meetings.
* Road team is 22-8 ATS in the last 30 meetings.
CONSENSUS: 60.78 percent of the wagers are on Duke at -2.5.
College Basketball Information
George Washington (+1.5) beat VCU 76-66 at home Jan 14, avenging an 84-57 loss at VCU in first A-13 meeting LY; Colonials outscored Rams 20-7 on foul line, survived 21 (-7) turnovers. A-13 home favorites of less than 5 points are 11-7 vs spread. GW won seven of last eight games, is 1-2 as A-13 underdog. VCU is 2-3 as home favorite, but won all five of the games, all by 11+ points- they force turnovers 23.3% of time.
Villanova (-17) shot 73% inside arc in 88-62 home win over DePaul Jan 18, Wildcats' 7th straight series win- they've won last three visits here by 2-2-23 points. DePaul's leading scorer Melvin is off team; Demons lost last six games (1-5 vs spread)- they're 1-4 as home dog, with three of four home losses by 10+ points. Big East road favorites of more than 4 points are 7-1. Villanova is 7-1-1 vs spread in its last nine games.
Syracuse lost its last five visits to Pitt; their last win here was 10 years ago. Pitt star Patterson is struggling with injured thumb, making 14-51 from floor in last four games, which Pitt split, with both wins over poor teams in OT. Syracuse is 4-0 on ACC road, with all four wins by 10+; they beat Panthers 59-54 (-5) Jan 18, making 65% of shots inside arc. Pitt had 16 offensive boards that game, but was just 13-23 from the line. ACC home teams are 9-23 vs spread if spread was 5 or less points.
Akron won its last four games with Western Michigan, winning by 3 in OT here LY. Zips' last three games were all decided by 4 or less points; they're 5-1 on MAC road, with underdogs covering five of the six tilts. WMU won five of last six games; underdogs are 5-0 vs spread in their MAC home games. MAC home favorites of 4 or less points are 4-8 vs spread. Four of six Akron road games were decided by 4 or less points.
Ohio (-3) made 11-25 from arc, beat Toledo 95-90 in OT Feb 1, after trailing by 11 with 8:58 left; Bobcats are 7-1 in last eight series games, but lost by 4 in last visit here in '12. MAC home favorites of 5+ points are 8-13-1 vs spread. Toledo won eight of last nine games but is 0-4-1 as a home favorite. Ohio won four of last five games; only one of their three MAC losses was by more than three points.
Home team is 14-2 in last 16 Indiana State-Bradley games; Sycamores are 1-9 in last ten visits to Peoria, losing by 8-12 in last two visits here. ISU is 4-2 on Valley road, with three of four wins by 6 or less points- they're 2-2 as road favorite. MVC favorites are 8-3 vs spread if spread was less than 4 points. Bradley won five of last seven games; they're 5-1 at home in Valley, with only loss by 3 to Missouri State.
Kentucky won 11 games with Auburn, with last four all by 10+ points; Wildcats won last five visits here by 9-9-3-5-22 points- they're 6-1 in last seven games overall, 1-2-1 as road favorite, winning away games by 9-5-10 points. SEC home underdogs are 14-7-1 vs spread. Auburn won three of last four games, covering all four; they're 2-2 at home in SEC, losing by 2 to Missouri, 7 to Florida (1-1 as home dog).
Illinois won three of last four games with Nebraska, splitting pair of 20+ point decisions here; Illini snapped 8-game skid Sunday at Penn St- they are 1-4 on Big Dozen road, losing by 25-6-7-10 points. Nebraska won last three home games by 6-4-5 points, is 7-1 vs spread last eight games. Big Dozen home favorites of 5 or less points are 7-9 vs spread. Illini is 2-7 against the spread in its last nine games.
Duke won seven of last nine games with North Carolina, winning its last two visits here, by 1-16 points. Duke won seven of last eight games, is 7-1 vs spread in last eight, winning three of last four on road, with only loss by hoop at Syracuse. ACC home underdogs of 4 or less points are 2-8 vs spread. Carolina won its last five games, all by 11+ points- they also won their last four home games.
Stanford (-10) outscored Washington 24-6 on line in 79-67 win over the Huskies Jan 18, just its second win in last 11 series games. Cardinal lost its last four visits here, by 1-33-11-13 points- they won six of last eight games, covering last four games as favorite. Pac-12 home underdogs of 5 or less points are 9-5 vs spread. Washington lost five of last seven but is 4-0 SU at home in conference- dogs covered six of its last seven games.
New Mexico (-5) beat Boise State 84-75 Jan 21, making 9-17 from arc, making 59% inside arc; Lobos are 5-0 vs Boise in MW play, winning by 16-5 in last two visits here. Mountain West home favorites of 5 or less points are 8-4 vs spread. Broncos lost last three games, are 1-5 as MW home favorite; they're 2-5 in league games decided by 6 or less points. Lobos won last six games; dogs are 4-1 vs spread in their MW road tilts.
Nevada won six of last seven games with Fresno State, winning 96-86 in double OT in first meeting Jan 22, after trailing by 10 in the second half. Wolf Pack is 3-0 as home favorite; three of its four home wins are by 9+ points. Fresno won its last three games, is 3-2 as road dog, with one road loss by more than 7 points. Mountain West home favorites of 5 or less points are 8-4 vs spread. Last two series games both went to OT.
Cal (-15) beat Washington State 76-55 at home Jan 18, but it was only 34-33 at half; home team won last six series games- Bears lost last two visits to Pullman, by 4-2 points. Pac-12 home underdogs of more than 5 points are 2-4 vs spread. Erratic Cal lost four of last five games, but win was over #1 Arizona- they lost last two road games. Wazzu is 3-2 as a home dog; home teams covered eight of their 11 conference games.
Armadillosports.com
College Basketball: Streaks, Tips, Notes
Sportspic.com
Syracuse at Pittsburgh
ACC newbie Syracuse (23-0, 12-6-1 ATS) has taken the conference by storm winning all ten games cashing six tickets in the process (6-3-1 ATS). Orange lead by C.J. Fair (16.8) and three other players dropping double digits are netting 71.1 points/game while allowing a lowly 58.4 per/contest on 40.6% from the field. The other newbie to the ACC, Pittsburgh (20-4, 7-13-1 ATS) hasn't had as much success within the conference going 8-3 (5-4-2 ATS). The Panthers with three of their own dropping double-digits lead by Lamar Patterson (17.2) are averaging 73.2 per/game and quietly holding opponents to 60.1 PPG on 40.0% shooting. Despite an earlier 59-54 set-back at Syracuse the Panthers have owned their X-Big East rival winning 9-of-11 encounters with a sparkling 10-0-1 mark at the betting window. Those numbers in hand the betting market has Panthers 1-point favorite for the rematch. A toss up to be sure, Pittsburgh is always tough to topple on home court as they're on a 15-2 SU stretch but Panthers cashing on Petersen Events Center hardwood has been a challenge as they're just 3-9 ATS in lined home games this season, 7-17 last twenty-four in front of the home crowd. On the other side, ACC teams are having little luck scoring on Syracuse (55.1) and when that 2-3 zone defense kicks in and locked down (=<55 Pts) Cuse are a money grabbing 15-3-1 ATS.
Duke at North Carolina
By Brian Edwards
VegasInsider.com
One of the premier rivalries in all of sports renews again tonight in Chapel Hill, where North Carolina will take on Duke in an ACC showdown at 9:00 p.m. Eastern.
Most books opened Duke (19-5 straight up, 16-8 against the spread) as a one-point favorite late Tuesday afternoon. However, as of early this morning, most spots had the Blue Devils by 2.5.
North Carolina (16-7 SU, 12-11 ATS) has won 11 of its 14 home games while going 7-7 versus the number. The Tar Heels are coming off Saturday's 73-62 win at Notre Dame as 1.5-point road 'chalk.'
Roy Williams's squad has now five in a row both SU and ATS. I made UNC a 5.5-point favorite at Notre Dame, so I decided to pounce on UNC and the result was an easy winner.
James Michael McAdoo paced the winners with 18 points, eight rebounds and four steals. Marcus Paige added 16 points and six assists.
Until steadying the ship with its current five-game run of success, North Carolina had been the toughest team to figure out in all of college basketball. During a three-week span from late November to early December, the Tar Heels picked up monster wins vs. Louisville (neutral court), at Michigan St. (by 14!) and vs. Kentucky.
But UNC also had several head-scratching defeats. The Tar Heels lost at UAB, in addition to home losses to Belmont and Miami. As it turns out, Belmont has a really solid squad (RPI of 60), but defeats to smaller schools at the Dean Dome aren't looked on fondly, regardless of the circumstances.
Duke is eighth in the RPI Rankings, while UNC is No. 37. The Blue Devils are 4-3 against RPI Top-50 opponents, including non-conference wins over UCLA and Michigan. They are 9-4 versus the RPI Top 100.
UNC is 4-3 against the RPI Top 50, 7-6 versus the Top 100.
Since losing two of its first three ACC games (at Notre Dame and at Clemson), Duke has been on a serious roll with seven wins in its last eight games. The only blemish during this surge was the epic 91-89 overtime loss at top-ranked Syracuse.
Duke has covered the spread in seven consecutive games, including Saturday night's 89-68 win at Boston College as a 9.5-point road 'chalk.' Jabari Parker was the catalyst with 29 points, 16 rebounds and three blocked shots in a dominant performance. Quinn Cook added 21 points by knocking down 5-of-7 attempts from 3-point range.
Duke doesn't take too many one-and-done players, but it has embraced the presence of Parker. He has rewarded them by leading the Blue Devils in scoring (19.2 points per game), rebounding (8.5 RPG) and blocked shots (1.2 per game).
Likewise, Coach K doesn't take too many transfers. In fact, Rodney Hood from Mississippi St. is just the fourth transfer during his tenure, joining Seth Curry, Dahntay Jones and Roshown McLeod. Hood has produced by averaging 16.5 PPG while shooting 49.4 percent from the field and 45.0 percent from 3-point land.
Duke has been a road favorite four times, posting a 2-2 spread record. With that said, we should note four consecutive spread covers on the road, including a pair of 'dog spots (at 'Cuse and an outright win at Pitt).
Although UNC has seen the 'over' go 5-2 in its last seven games and 7-6 in home games at the Dean Dome, the 'under' still maintains a 12-10 overall ledger.
The 'over' has hit in four straight Duke games and seven of its last nine to improve to 12-11 overall.
Duke has beaten UNC in seven of the last nine meetings, including three in a row in Chapel Hill. The Blue Devils cruised to a 69-53 win as two-point road 'dogs at UNC last year. McAdoo had a team-high 15 points for the Heels in the losing effort.
The 'under' is 8-2 in the last 10 head-to-head meetings.
ESPN will provide television coverage tonight.
B.E.'s Bonus Nuggets
Auburn owns a 6-2-1 spread record in its last nine games as an underdog. The Tigers are 7-3 ATS at home. They play host to Kentucky tonight as 7.5-point underdogs.
UConn has won seven of its last nine games while compiling an 8-1 spread record. The Huskies are 15-point home favorites tonight vs. USF. They own a 6-1 spread record in seven games as double-digit favorites this year. The Bulls are 1-3 ATS as double-digit underdogs.
Oklahoma St. got run out of Austin early and often in an 87-68 loss at Texas last night. The Longhorns took the cash easily as four-point home favorites. Travis Ford's team looked like a Final Four contender in December, but now it is without Marcus Smart for two more games and a part of the bubble conversation.
After getting smashed at Iowa on Saturday and falling behind by double digits in the first half at Ohio St. last night, Michigan rallied to capture a 70-60 win as a four-point road underdog.
Wyoming was the nation's tough-luck team last week, losing in overtime at New Mexico and by two at UNLV. But the Cowboys got things to go their way last night, ending San Diego St.'s 20-game winning streak by collecting a 68-62 triumph as four-point home 'dogs.
Florida won its 16th consecutive game Tuesday night at Tennessee, pulling away for a 67-58 victory as a two-point road favorite. The Gators improved to 22-2 overall and 11-0 in SEC. They will venture into Rupp Arena to face Kentucky this Saturday night.
There is a lot of speculation going on about the job security of Alabama fifth-year head coach Anthony Grant. As I've noted several times recently, I've been stunned by his lack of success in Tuscaloosa. The Crimson Tide isn't going to the postseason this year unless it wins the SEC Tournament, and it has just one NCAA appearances and zero wins on Grant's watch. With that said, he has five years remaining on his contract at $1.9 million per season. That's a lot of greenbacks for Alabama to eat if it wants to get rid of him. The empty seats at Coleman Coliseum for last night's game at Ole Miss didn't help Grant's cause, but the final result might have. After allowing a six-point advantage to get away in the final 1:11, Trevor Releford buried a trey with 0.6 seconds left to lift the Tide to a 67-64 win over the Rebels. Releford scored 21 of his 26 points in the second half and had 14 of 'Bama's last 16.