College Knowledge
-- Miami (-9.5) held Florida State to 30.8% from floor in 71-47 win at home Jan 27, 5th straight series home win; 'canes lost last six visits here, by 19-3-13-6-6-5 points. ACC home underdogs are 14-4 vs spread this season. Miami is 10-0 in ACC, 5-0 on road, with two of last three wins on road by single point. State is 3-5 in last eight games, with its last four losses by 19+ points- they split their four ACC home games.
-- Butler is without 2nd-leading scorer Smith (abdomen) here; they're 4-0 at home in conference, with two wins by 12+ points. Bulldogs won last three games overall, by 7-19-3 points. A-16 double digit home favorites are 5-9 vs spread. Charlotte is 2-4 in last six games, losing last three road games by 20-1-28 points; their last three games were all decided by 7 or less points. 49ers' last three road games went over the total.
-- Northeastern (+4.5) made 10-15 from arc, won 74-70 at Delaware Jan 19, its 13th win in last 17 series games. Blue Hens lost six of last seven visits here, losing by 9-2-4-14-1-4 points, but they've won five of last six games overall, are 4-2 on CAA road, losing by 14-20. Huskies are 5-1 at home in CAA, with four of five wins by 7 or less points. CAA home favorites of 6 or less points are 10-16 against the spread.
-- Syracuse won six of last seven games vs UConn, winning by 8-2 in its last two visits here; Orange won its last two games, by 16-19 points, as return of Southerland gave them boost vs St John's, but they've also lost last two road games. Big East home underdogs of 5 or less points are 3-8 vs spread. Huskies are 1-5 vs top 40 teams but they're 3-1 in conference home games and won four of their last five games overall.
-- Ole Miss lost three of last four games, allowing 84.5 ppg, after giving up 68.7 ppg during 6-0 SEC start; Rebels lost last two road games, by 14-19 points. SEC home teams are 15-11 vs spread if number is 5 or less points. Texas A&M's last seven games were all decided by 7 points or less; Aggies are 2-3 at home in SEC, beating Arkansas/Mizzou. Last four Ole Miss games went over; six of last eight A&M games stayed under.
-- Creighton (-11.5) beat Northern Iowa 79-68 Jan 15- both teams made 57% of shots inside arc, in 6th strait series win by home team. Bluejays lost last three visits here, by 18-5-3 points. Creighton is 3-4 in last seven games, losing three of last four on road. UNI won its last five home tilts, four by 11+ points. Six of last seven Bluejay games stayed under total. MVC home teams are 15-5 vs spread if number is 5 or less points.
-- Arizona State (-8) nipped Utah 55-54 at home Jan 2, despite making only 4-18 from arc; home team won three series games in Pac-12 play, with ASU losing 64-43 here LY. Sun Devils split four conference away games, with losses by 3-4 points. Utah is 1-4 at home in league play, beating Coloroado by 3 for only home win. Pac-12 underdogs are 23-9 against the spread if the number is 5 or less points.
-- Memphis won nine of last ten games with Central Florida, winning last five here, by 33-21-6-16-29 points, but UCF won six of last seven games, is 11-3 in last 14, with win over Southern Miss last week- their only two C-USA losses are by 3-4 points. Memphis won 14 games in a row, winning its four conference hone games by 13-11-1-30. C-USA double digit home favorites are 4-7 against the spread.
-- West Virginia won last three games to get to 5-5 in conference, but the wins were vs worst clubs in league; Mountaineers are 3-3 on Big X road, losing by 2-27-14 points. Baylor lost three of last four games, but is 4-1 at home in Big X, with wins by 7-11-10-27 points; they allowed 56 or less points in five of six league wins, an average of 70.8 ppg in its four losses. Big X home favorites of 8+ points are 11-4 vs spread.
-- Duke is 5-2 in its last seven games vs North Carolina, but UNC won here by 18 LY- they're 5-2 in last seven games in Cameron- visiting clubs are 9-5 in last 14 series games. ACC double digit home favorites are 10-3 vs spread. Duke is 5-0 at home in ACC this year with all five wins by 13+ points; they've won five in row overall, three by 13+. UNC won six of last eight games; they're 2-3 on ACC road, losing by 9-8-26.
-- UNLV won its last 11 games vs Air Force, with two of last three wins in OT; they beat Falcons 76-71 (-13) Jan 12, making only 6-25 from arc, 18-31 from foul line. Rebels are 1-4 on MWC road, with only win by 7 at San Diego State- they scored 66 or less points in five of last six games. MWC home underdogs are 7-3 vs spread this season. Air Force is 4-0 at home in league, with three of four wins by 11+ points.
-- Colorado State (+5.5) lost 79-72 in OT at San Diego State Jan 12, in a game they trailed by 18 at half; Rams lost 17 of last 19 series games, but beat Aztecs by 17 here LY. MWC home favorites of 6 or less points are 8-3 vs spread. Rams are 4-0 at home in MWC, with three wins by 19+ points; they won last four games overall, allowing 58.8 ppg. San Diego State is 2-2 on road in league, losing at Wyoming/Air Force.
-- Oregon lost three of last four games, after 7-0 Pac-12 start; Ducks beat Washington 81-76 (-7.5) Jan 26, outscoring Huskies 27-14 on foul line, making 65% inside arc. Oregon lost last two road games, scoring 52-54 points. Washington lost six of last seven games, scoring 60 or less points in three of last four; they're 2-2 at home in conference, with losses by 9-4 points. Pac-12 home favorites of 5 or less points are 7-16 vs spread.
Armadillosports.com
Games to Watch
By David Schwab
VegasInsider.com
North Carolina Tar Heels vs. No. 4 Duke Blue Devils
The Tar Heels were hammered by Miami this past Saturday 87-61 as 7½-point road underdogs to fall to 6-4 in the ACC and 16-7 overall. They are 11-9 ATS overall and 3-5 ATS on the road this season. The total has gone OVER in five of their last six games. Despite the up and down nature of North Carolina this season, it remains one of the top scoring teams in the nation with 78.3 points a game and ranked fifth in rebounds with 41.7 a game. James-Michael McAdoo leads the team in both categories with 14.9 points and 8.2 rebounds a game.
Duke could very well find itself back in the No.1 spot in the new rankings after extending its current winning streak to five with a very tight 62-61 win over Boston College as an 11-point road favorite this past Saturday. The Blue Devils still trail Miami in the ACC standings by two games at 8-2 and are 21-2 overall. ATS, they are 13-10 and 6-6 at home. The total has gone OVER in six of their last eight games. Mason Plumlee and Seth Curry remain the team's top two scoring threats. Plumlee leads the Blue Devils with 18.2 points and 10.7 rebounds while Curry is chipping-in another 16.8 points a game.
Wednesday's Top 25 NCAAB Betting Notes
By Covers.com
Rivalry Week continues with a huge slate of games filled with bad blood Wednesday. We give you betting news and notes for all the Top-25 matchups:
Oklahoma State Cowboys at Texas Tech Red Raiders (+12, 134)
No. 16 Oklahoma State goes for its sixth straight win when it travels to Texas Tech on Wednesday night. The Cowboys have made a January span in which they lost four of six contests seem like a distant memory. Because of the hot streak, Oklahoma State has positioned itself in the thick of the Big 12 race, half a game behind co-leaders No. 13 Kansas and No. 11 Kansas State.
The Red Raiders are on a four-game skid and will be playing to keep breathing room between them and conference newcomer TCU in the Big 12 basement. Oklahoma State routed Texas Tech, 79-45, in Stillwater on Jan. 19, and the Red Raiders have won at home just once in 2013.
Nebraska Cornhuskers at Indiana Hoosiers (-24, 134)
There is no question No. 2 Indiana is one of the top teams in the country and has an excellent chance to land one of four No. 1 seeds for the NCAA tournament. If the Hoosiers are to win their sixth national title, though, they'll need 7-foot sophomore center Cody Zeller to continue to play a large role. Indiana hosts Nebraska on Wednesday in what figures to be a lopsided affair, so the Hoosiers should have little trouble providing Zeller more of an opportunity to become the focal point of the offense.
Zeller, a national player of the year candidate, scored a season-high 24 points in Indiana's 81-68 victory at then-No. 10 Ohio State on Saturday, but perhaps the most encouraging aspect was how aggressive he was in demanding the ball. The Cornhuskers, who are 11th in the 12-team Big Ten, got a boost of confidence with a 67-53 victory over last-place Penn State on Saturday. Nebraska, though, must shoot better than the 29.2 percent it achieved against the Nittany Lions for it to have a remote chance of an upset.
Charlotte 49ers at Butler Bulldogs (-12, 131)
Charlotte will try to get back on track when it visits No. 10 Butler on Wednesday night. After starting the season as the hottest team in the Atlantic-10 by winning their first nine games and 16 of 19, the 49ers have lost four of their last six and are coming off consecutive losses for the first time this season. Charlotte lost 68-61 at home to VCU on Saturday and fell 89-88 at Temple on Feb. 6.
Butler, the first A-10 team to reach 20 wins this season, has a three-game win streak and is coming off a 59-56 victory at George Washington on Saturday that helped it maintain a share of the conference lead with VCU and Saint Louis. The Bulldogs, who are 12-0 at home, last met Charlotte in 1993. The 49ers are 2-1 in the series.
Miami Hurricanes at Florida State Seminoles (+5, 124)
Miami (Fla.) continues to roll along, winning by more than 20 points four times in the last three weeks to take control of the ACC race. The fourth-ranked Hurricanes will be challenged with four road games in the next six, starting with a trip to play inconsistent Florida State on Wednesday. Miami can become the first ACC team to start 11-0 in the league since North Carolina in 2000-01 and extend its winning streak to 12 for the first time since 2007-08. The Hurricanes pounded the Seminoles 71-47 on Jan. 27 at home, but they have not won at Tallahassee since 2006.
Florida State have alternated wins and losses the last seven, capped by a dispiriting 71-46 thumping at Wake Forest last Saturday. The Seminoles, who stand last in the ACC in rebounding, are 6-6 at home overall -- 2-2 in conference play.
DePaul Blue Demons at Notre Dame Fighting Irish (-14, 148)
On the heels of winning the longest regular-season game in Big East history over the weekend, No. 21 Notre Dame will host another team on Wednesday that stretched it into overtime earlier this month in DePaul. The Fighting Irish overcame an eight-point deficit with 50 seconds left in regulation and survived through five overtimes before toppling Louisville on Saturday. Oddly enough, Notre Dame’s second conference overtime win was only a week removed from its first such victory – a 79-71 triumph over the Blue Demons.
The Irish have won four of five and stand a good chance of keeping the pressure on the four teams above them in the standings. Their next two opponents – DePaul and Providence – are among the five teams in the Big East with losing conference records. The Blue Demons are mired in an eight-game slide after Saturday’s loss at Marquette and have dropped five straight road games against Notre Dame.
Syracuse Orange at UConn Huskies (+3, 131)
No.7 Syracuse looks for its third straight Big East win when the Orange travels to Connecticut for a Big East rivalry game Wednesday. Syracuse cruised past St. John’s 77-58 on Sunday in senior swingman James Southerland’s return from a six-game, academic-related suspension. Six days earlier, the Orange responded from back-to-back conference losses with a 63-47 rout of No. 21 Notre Dame. Syracuse is still without freshman forward DaJuan Coleman, who underwent minor knee surgery on Jan. 29.
The Huskies are fresh off a 78-67 comeback win over Seton Hall on Sunday in which Shabazz Napier led the way with 22 points, nine assists and six steals. Connecticut has won four of five after starting 2-3 in Big East play and sits two games behind the Orange in the conference. All six teams above the Huskies are nationally ranked. Syracuse beat Connecticut three times last season, including a 58-55 victory in the Big East Tournament semifinal to snap the Huskies’ 13-game postseason win streak.
Creighton Bluejays at Northern Iowa Panthers (+2, 127)
No. 23 Creighton looks to bounce back from back-to-back Missouri Valley Conference losses when the Bluejays travel to Northern Iowa Wednesday night. Creighton, the most-efficient field-goal shooting team in the nation at 51 percent, is coming off losses to Indiana State and Illinois State and will likely lose a share of first place in the conference with a third straight defeat. National Player of the Year Candidate Doug McDermott (23.3 ppg, 7.5 rpg) scored a season-low eight points on 3-of-10 shooting against the Sycamores before managing 24 points on 0-of-5 shooting from beyond the arc in Creighton’s 75-72 loss to the Redbirds on Saturday. The Bluejays are currently tied with Wichita State and Indiana State atop the MVC conference standings.
The Panthers host the Bluejays riding a three-game winning streak that includes a 57-52 win over then-No. 15 Wichita State on Feb. 2. Most recently, Northern Iowa held off a stifling second-half comeback from Bradley for a 68-65 win on Saturday. The Panthers are 11-2 at home this season and undefeated in their last five games at the McLeod Center in Cedar Falls. Northern Iowa is tied with Evansville for fourth in the MVC, trailing the trio of leaders by two games. Creighton defeated the Panthers 79-68 on Jan. 15.
Central Florida Knights at Memphis Tigers (-13, 139)
No. 25 Memphis looks to extend its 14-game winning streak and stay perfect in Conference USA play when it hosts Central Florida on Wednesday. The Tigers have quietly been one of the hottest teams in the country, with their only losses on the season coming to VCU, Minnesota and Louisville, who have all been nationally-ranked.
The Knights are hoping to pull closer to Memphis in the league standings, with Southern Miss and Central Florida sitting two games behind the Tigers heading into this contest. This is the first of two meetings between the two teams in the next three weeks, so getting a win now could set up a big showdown on UCF's homecourt on March 2. But beating Memphis these days is easier said than done, with only four of the 14 straight wins coming by fewer than 10 points.
North Carolina Tar Heels at Duke Blue Devils (-11, 156)
Duke looks to extend its winning streak to six when the top-ranked Blue Devils and Tar Heels renew the Tobacco Road rivalry on Wednesday in Durham. Duke enters the contest in sole possession of second in the ACC, two games behind first-place Miami. Senior forward Mason Plumlee is the reigning ACC player of the week after averaging 24.5 points and 9.5 rebounds in wins over North Carolina State and Boston College.
North Carolina has won six of its past eight games, but the Tar Heels looked overmatched in an 87-61 loss at Miami on Saturday. The Tar Heels allowed the Hurricanes to shoot 54.4 percent from the field, and they’ve allowed an average of 79.6 points in their seven losses. They’ll need a much stronger effort against a Duke team that leads the ACC in scoring while averaging 75.8 points in conference action.
San Diego State Aztecs at Colorado State Rams (-5, 126)
Colorado State is nationally ranked for the first time since 1954 and puts its 26-game homecourt winning streak on the line when it meets No. 22 San Diego State on Wednesday. The No. 24 Rams have a rising program under first-year coach Larry Eustachy and are in second place in the Mountain West Conference, a half-game ahead of the Aztecs. San Diego State defeated the Rams 79-72 in overtime on Jan. 12 in San Diego.
The Aztecs were the preseason conference favorite but lost three of their first seven league games before winning their last two outings. San Diego State faces a tough week with a visit to Nevada-Las Vegas looming on Saturday after the Colorado State contest. “We know what it takes to win away games and we have been in that environment before,” junior guard Jamaal Franklin said after Saturday’s win over Fresno State. Rams senior forward Greg Smith was giddy upon learning Monday that the Rams had become nationally ranked. “I think all of us that have been around here for a while are really just happy that we’re finally being recognized as being one of the best teams in the nation,” Smith said. “We’ve just got to go out and keep playing like it, starting Wednesday.”
New Mexico Lobos at Fresno State Bulldogs (+6, 119)
Just when it looked like New Mexico was ready to pull away in the Mountain West race, the Lobos were tripped up by UNLV on Saturday. New Mexico will try to get back on track Wednesday at last-place Fresno State, which has lost of five of its last six games. The Bulldogs are hoping for a better outcome than the first meeting, when the Lobos cruised to a 72-45 win in the Pit on Jan. 12.
Fresno State doesn’t shoot well enough to contend in the conference, but the Bulldogs’ defense can keep games close. “One of Fresno’s strengths is how hard they play,” San Diego State coach Steve Fisher told the U-T San Diego after the Aztecs beat the Bulldogs 75-53 on Saturday. The Bulldogs will likely struggle again to stop New Mexico center Alex Kirk, who had 19 points and 14 rebounds in the teams’ first meeting.
North Carolina at Duke: What Bettors Need to Know
By Covers.com
North Carolina Tar Heels at Duke Blue Devils (-11, 156)
Duke looks to extend its winning streak to six when the top-ranked Blue Devils and Tar Heels renew the Tobacco Road rivalry on Wednesday in Durham. Duke enters the contest in sole possession of second in the ACC, two games behind first-place Miami. Senior forward Mason Plumlee is the reigning ACC player of the week after averaging 24.5 points and 9.5 rebounds in wins over North Carolina State and Boston College.
North Carolina has won six of its past eight games, but the Tar Heels looked overmatched in an 87-61 loss at Miami on Saturday. The Tar Heels allowed the Hurricanes to shoot 54.4 percent from the field, and they’ve allowed an average of 79.6 points in their seven losses. They’ll need a much stronger effort against a Duke team that leads the ACC in scoring while averaging 75.8 points in conference action.
North Carolina is 6-1 ATS in its last seven trips to Durham and has gone 12-3 ATS and 6-9 SU in Cameron Indoor since the 1997-98 season, including an 88-70 win as a 2-point road favorite last year.
ABOUT NORTH CAROLINA (16-7, 6-4 ACC, 12-9-1 ATS): The Tar Heels allowed Miami to make a program-record 15 3-pointers, and now they’re facing the ACC’s top 3-point shooting team in Duke. Sophomore forward James Michael McAdoo will look to bounce back after posting his second single-digit scoring performance of the season against Miami, but the key player may be point guard Marcus Paige. The freshman is shooting 28 percent in his last 10 games, and he has a challenging matchup against Duke’s Quinn Cook. North Carolina forces 15.6 turnovers per game, but Duke has done a good job of protecting the basketball.
ABOUT DUKE (21-2, 8-2, 13-10 ATS): The Blue Devils have struggled defensively at times without senior forward Ryan Kelly, who is sidelined indefinitely with a right foot injury suffered Jan. 8. However, the injury has provided other players with an opportunity, including freshmen Rasheed Sulaimon and Amile Jefferson. Against North Carolina, however, the Blue Devils will rely heavily on Plumlee and Cook, who ranks second in the ACC with six assists per game. Senior Seth Curry will also be a key factor. The 6-2 senior averages 16.8 points while shooting 45.3 percent for Duke, which is a perfect 12-0 at home this season.
TRENDS:
* Tar Heels are 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings in Duke.
* Under is 6-2 in the last eight meetings.
* Favorite is 5-2 ATS in the last seven meetings.
* Road team is 9-2 ATS in the last 11 meetings.
TIP-INS:
1. While North Carolina leads the all-time series 132-102, Duke owns a 22-11 record since the 1998-99 season.
2. Plumlee is 28 rebounds shy of becoming the 31st player in ACC history to record 1,000 points and 1,000 rebounds in a career.
3. Duke and North Carolina split the two regular-season meetings last season for the seventh time in the last 12 years.
Wednesday Tips
By Kevin Rogers
VegasInsider.com
The ACC boasts two of the top three teams in the country this week with Duke (#2) and Miami (#3) rising towards the top of the rankings. Both the Blue Devils and Hurricanes battle rivals on Wednesday night, looking to avoid a slip-up. We'll start with a team that will be joining the ACC next season, playing one of their main rivals likely for the final time.
Syracuse at Connecticut
The Orange is playing in its final season as a member of the Big East conference, as Jim Boeheim's club looks to improve to 9-2 in league play with a victory at UConn. The Huskies have won four of their last five games, but much of that damage has come against the bottom-feeders of the Big East. UConn downed Seton Hall on Sunday afternoon, 78-67 as four-point road favorites, as the Huskies have beaten DePaul, Rutgers, and USF at home - all teams owning conference records of 3-8 or worse.
Syracuse is coming off consecutive home blowouts of Notre Dame and St. John's, but the Orange has dropped back-to-back road contests at Villanova and Pittsburgh. The Orange is allowing 58.7 points per game this season, while giving up at least 65 points in each of their last four away games (3-1 to the 'over'). Six of the last seven meetings between Syracuse and UConn have been taken by the Orange, including a two-point triumph in Storrs last February.
UConn has drilled the 'over' in five of the last six games, which includes an overtime victory over USF that needed the extra five minutes to eclipse the 'over.' The Huskies have compiled a 4-3 ATS record as an underdog this season, as UConn blew a six-point halftime lead in a 73-58 home defeat to Louisville last month.
Miami at Florida State
The Hurricanes are the only power conference team to be undefeated in league play (10-0), as Miami takes its number three ranking to Tallahassee on Wednesday night. The Seminoles grabbed all the headlines last season by beating UNC and Duke en route to the ACC tournament championship. Florida State has fallen on hard times this season, compiling a 5-5 record inside the conference, while losing five of their last eight games.
One of those defeats came in Coral Gables on January 27, a 71-47 drubbing by the 'Canes as 9 ½-point favorites. Jim Larranaga's squad avoided a letdown that night after thrashing Duke four nights before, as UM has covered eight of 10 ACC contests. Miami owns a 1-2 ATS record in three spots as a road favorite inside the ACC, including non-covers in victories at Boston College and Virginia Tech.
Florida State has had a flair for the dramatic over the last month, as senior guard Michael Snaer has drilled three game-winners in victories over Clemson, Maryland, and Georgia Tech. However, the Seminoles fell flat in Saturday's 71-46 setback at Wake Forest as short road favorites, dropping Leonard Hamilton's team to 1-7 ATS the last eight games. The lone cover came at Georgia Tech as two-point 'dogs, as FSU owns a 2-8 ATS record at home this season.
North Carolina at Duke
The Tar Heels are still in a prime position to make the NCAA Tournament as an at-large squad, but UNC was embarrassed in its last trip to the court in Saturday's 87-61 rout at the hands of Miami. North Carolina receives the ultimate consolation prize tonight by facing rival Duke at Cameron Indoor Stadium, as the Blue Devils are riding a five-game winning streak.
Things didn't come easy for Mike Krzyzewski's club the last time out, staving off Boston College as 11-point road favorites in a 62-61 thriller on Sunday night. Duke is rolling at home with four straight covers in conference play, including a 98-85 victory over N.C. State last Thursday night as 12-point 'chalk.' The Blue Devils split a pair of meetings with the Tar Heels last season, which included a buzzer-beating three-pointer by Austin Rivers in Chapel Hill last February.
North Carolina was blitzed early as seven-point 'dogs in Saturday's defeat to Miami, snapping a three-game winning streak. Roy Williams' team has drilled the 'over' in five of the last six contests, while allowing at least 87 points twice on the road in this stretch. The Tar Heels have compiled a 1-3 SU/ATS record on the road inside ACC play with the lone victory coming at Florida State as three-point 'dogs last month.
College Basketball: Streaks, Tips, Notes
Sportspic.com
North Carolina at Duke
North Carolina Tar Heels (16-7, 11-9 ATS) had it's three game win streak snapped Saturday at Miami Florida Hurricanes getting thumped 87-61 as 7.5 point underdogs. Now, Tar Heels must journey to Cameron Indoor Stadium in Durham for a college hoops matchup with Duke Blue Devils (21-2, 13-10 ATS). UNC a dangerous group scoring 78.3 PPG lead by James Michael-McAdoo (14.9), Reggie Bullock (14.0) are holding opponents to 69.3 PPG on 41.0% shooting. Duke lead by Mason Plumlee (18.2), Seth Curry (16.8) are just as proficient in the scoring department at 78.2 PPG but have a slight edge on the defensive side allowing 64.2 PPG on 40.9% from the field. Blue Devils with those Cameron Crazies on their side along with an imposing home court stretch standing at 61-3 (31-30-1 ATS) makes it tough on UNC which is clearly vulnerable on the road in conference play posting a 2-3 SU/ATS mark allowing 76.2 points/game and on a 2-5 (3-4 ATS) skid vs their bitter rival.
Wednesday Cliff Notes
By Dave Essler
As is the case with any sport later in the season, there's more data and the lines get tighter. It's easy to see as a bettor, simply by the number of games in a given day that come down to the final minute, whether it's a 14 point favorite, a 4 point underdog, or a total. The key is how WE will adjust to that, because it's every year. The last two weeks we have been behind, but not on Wednesday.
Syracuse at Uconn: With Sutherland back in the fold one would certainly have to believe that the Orange will get some additional love. The one thing UConn does have that most teams playing Syracuse cannot compete with is size. But, for all that length that are not a good rebounding team at either end of the court, and where it looks like it may really hurt them is on the defense. The 'Cuse is a superior offensive rebounding team. With Sutherland back they've got another outside threat other than Triche. And at 6'8" Uconn really doesn't have anyone that can match up with him. Huskies only home loss was to L'ville but they haven't played the best teams in Storrs. Yet. Orange lost their last two road games (without Sutherland) and really have to be considered here. Although, Syracuse beat Uconn badly in the regular season and then knocked them out of the Conference tournament by three in a very low scoring game. Since both teams are superior FT shooting teams, the lack of rebounding should lead to fast break baskets, and the fact that Uconn should perhaps push the pace a bit more, this game may well go over. The side. We'll pass for now. Sharp money has indeed been dictating policy lately.
San Diego State at Colorado State: Both teams behind New Mexico in the MWC, and this game is probably more important to SDSU because four of their last seven are on the road, including at UNLV Saturday and later AT New Mexico, so they can't afford too many more losses. CSU has not lost at home, and this is a rematch from an earlier game that CSU lost in OT at SDSU. With that in mind, one would think they'd be the right side, but, remember these lines are getting tighter. CSU has the experience (#3 in the nation) and SDSU has the size here, but what has amazed me is how well CSU has rebounded under Eustachy, which probably shouldn't given that Southern Miss was always a great rebounding team as well. Just not THIS good. Since the Aztecs ARE a good offensive rebounding team, this may be their best test yet. In the last game, both defenses completely dominated, holding each other under 40%. SDSU made tons of threes, while CSU owned the offensive glass (what's new) getting NINETEEN offensive rebounds. If both teams make the adjustments to combat those, one would have to think this game stays under. CSU is very methodical and will not want a track meet here. I'd have to lean CSU simply because they get to the line more and are overall a better FT shooting team, and at home should get more calls, one would think. Lean under, because this should be an intense defensive game.
Creighton at Northern Iowa: Potential pay-back for Northern Iowa from an earlier loss this season. They paid back the Shockers and kind of cruised through the last couple of games, probably looking ahead to this one. And with Creighton's last two losses they're now in a three way tie for first in the MVC. They'd better be careful because they have a losable game at Evansville on Saturday. They've got a BB game at St. Mary's too, so they've gone, in a couple of weeks, from a fairly high seed to potentially not so much, ending the season against Witchita State. Northern Iowa, as always, will take the air out of the ball. They've actually got a significant size advantage, so if Creighton is off, NI will dictate everything. They played two close games last year and this one should be no different. Three of Creighton's four Conference losses have come on the road, and they may well lose a third straight. I'd' give NI an advantage for two reasons. A far superior schedule that jades their stats a bit, and the best three point defense in the MVC since Conference play started.
Oregon at Washington: Ducks tied with Arizona and UCLA for first in the Pac-12, so every game important. They've lost three of four and semi-struggled with Utah, so perhaps there's SOME value here. They (Washington) lost at Oregon by five in a high scoring (go figure) game. Washington shot well in that game, but Oregon went to the line a whopping 37 times. Perhaps, though, a somewhat under valued home team. This is a team that beat Washington State, Cal, and Stanford on the road, all in succession. They played Arizona to the wire at home, and pushed UCLA to the last shot on the road last week. Of course they then lost to USC, but that was pretty predictable given the schedule. Ducks COULD be paying for a weak non-conference schedule now, and have been the beneficiary of a ton of home games early in conference play here. IMO Ducks may well lose this game. If Washington can slow it down enough, Oregon has had some turnover issues and the Huskies have a huge size advantage inside. Artis is listed recently as doubtful for the Ducks. I worry about Oregon's sheer athletic advantage, and Washington's "at times" relative clumsiness, but do think Washington wins this game.
North Carolina at Duke: As expected Duke struggled with BC, damned near losing outright. Heels had seemingly started to come together a bit (they are super young) but that beating in Miami clearly was a wake up call. Not unlike any other rivalry, you can simply throw records out when these two play, but the key thing is that because there is no love lost if one team (Duke?) gets ahead, they WILL try and win by 30. I did see that line come out at 10, which I thought may be a bit low. Clearly they're trying to get Duke money early, and at that number they probably will. And a big total of 152 as expected as well. Duke was out-everyting'd stat-wise against BC. If the Eagles hadn't shot 2-11 from deep, they'd certainly have lost. They were out-rebounded, has half as many steals, and let BC shoot over 50% from inside. It was so ugly it's almost hard to see a total turn-around that quickly. Heels had a similar performance in Miami, but didn't have the resolve to even keep it close, the sign of a young team. North Carolina simply shouldn't be able to compete offensively inside with Duke, so the only way they stay in this is by not turning it over and hitting outside shots. Since the general people will be on Duke and the over, I will take North Carolina and the under. For now.
Mississippi at Texas A & M: Mississippi in line for a first round bye in the Conference tournament. They've played the 4th toughest SEC schedule while the Aggies have actually played the second toughest. Perhaps, though, even losing to UK and UF before getting dismantled by Missouri, they are starting to feel the effects of a pitiful non-conference schedule. They barely beat both Auburn and Vanderbilt on the road, so I am not sure they can be trusted here. The Aggies W/L record is a bit deceptive, due in part to the strong schedule. They took UK to overtime before beating Missouri, both just prior to losing to an improving Georgia team. We have one of the slowest teams here (the Aggies) against one of the most up-tempo teams there is. Usually the home team dictates the pace. Usually. Aggies lead the SEC in offensive rebounding, and if they can control a few extra possession hence slowing this game down even more, I like their chances. Mississippi's interior defense can be had, and that's where the Aggies want the ball. Inside. My only hesitation is that for all the inside ball movement they just don't get to the line as often as I wish. However, it's Aggies or nothing here.