College Basketball Knowledge
Miami split its last six games after a 13-1 start; they're 4-0 at home in ACC, winning all four games by 11+ points. Notre Dame won five of last six games, with PG Jackson missing loss, at Syracuse. Irish swept Miami LY 75-70/70-63; they lost 71-64 here couple years ago. Miami holds teams to 29.9% on arc; ND is shooting 38% from arc in league play. ACC home favorites of 6 or less points are 8-9 vs spread.
St Bonaventure beat St Joe's three times LY, by 9-10-11 points; they've lost three of last four visits here, losing by 7-14-10ot points. Bonnies lost three of last four games, losing by 8-7 points in last two road games, at Duquesne/VCU. St Joe's won seven games in row, is 14-1 in its last 15- they won last three home games, by 15-25-8 points. A-14 home favorites of 6+ points are 14-10 vs spread.
Northern Iowa lost six of its last nine games; they're 3-2 in MVC home games, losing to Loyola/Wichita. Panthers won three of last four games with Evansville, winning by 14-11 points in last two played here. MVC home favorites of 6 or less points are 4-8 vs spread. Purple Aces are 1-2 in last three games after a 17-3 start; they're 3-2 on Valley road, losing at Wichita by 3, Indiana State by 17.
Florida won eight of last ten games with Arkansas- they beat Hogs last two years by total of three points. Arkansas lost last six in Gainesville, with five of six wins by 8+ points. Gators won four of last five games; they're 4-0 at home in SEC, winning by 14-6-3-32 points. SEC home favorites are 21-13 vs spread. Arkansas lost four of last five games; two of those losses were in OT. Five of their last 12 games went to OT.
Davidson swept George Washington LY, winning 65-63 here, 77-66 at home, in first season as A-14 rivals. Wildcats lost three of last five; they are 1-3 on A-14 road, with only win at Richmond. A-14 home favorites of 6+ points are 14-10 vs spread. Colonials split last four games, with all four decided by 7 or less points- they're 3-1 at home in A-14, with wins by 6-27-4. Davidson turns ball over 13.5% of time, fewest in country.
Villanova was 28-32 (87.5%) inside arc in 85-71 win at Creighton Jan 2, Wildcats' third straight series win, by 21-4-14 points. Villanova is 10-1 in last 11 games, has revenge game at Providence Saturday. Wildcats are 3-1 at home in Big East, with wins by 15+ points- loss to Providence. Bluejays are 3-1 on Big East road, with only loss 74-73 at Georgetown. Big East double digit home favorites are 6-5 vs spread.
Marquette won its last three games; they're 2-2 on Big East road, losing by 10 at Georgetown, 15 at Villanova, winning at Providence/St John's. Seton Hall won 83-63 at Marquette Dec 30, its second win in last nine series games; Eagles won last three visits here, by 21-11-3 points. Big East home favorites of 8 or less points are 7-9 vs spread. Seton Hall lost two of its last three home games, but won last two games overall.
Maryland is 8-2 in Big 14 but lost two of last three road games, losing at both Michigan schools; Terps are are 3-2 on road, winning by 13-3-5 points- they won at Ohio State Sunday. Maryland swept Nebraska 69-65/64-61 LY, in first year as league rivals. Huskers lost last two games by 13-15 points; they're 1-3 at home in Big 14, with only win vs winless Minnesota. Big 14 home underdogs of 7 or less points are 4-10.
Kansas split its last six games but all three losses were on road; they are 4-0 at home in Big X, winning by 28-3-7-9 points. Jayhawks won seven of last nine games with K-State; Wildcats lost last nine visits here, all by 11+ points. K-State is 2-6 in conference with two losses in double OT; Wildcats are 0-4 on Big X road, losing by 3-10-7-15 points. Big X home favorites of 10+ points are 6-5 against the spread.
Arizona is 4-4 in its last eight games, 1-3 in last four road, with only win by 14 at Stanford; Wildcats made 9-16 on arc, routed Washington State 90-66 at home Jan 16, ninth series win in row for Wildcats, who won last four visits here by 1-14-4-27 points. Wazzu lost seven games in a row, with three of last five by 21+ points; Coogs are 1-4 at home, with losses by 13-4-21-5. Pac-12 favorites of 7+ points are 9-1 vs spread.
Cal-Riverside outscored Northridge 7-2 over last 2:08 in 75-72 road win Jan 16, UCR's third win in last four series games. Matadors lost by 1-4 points in last two visits here. Riverside won four of last five games, and four of those were on road- they're 1-2 at home, with only win by hoop over Long Beach. Big West home favorites of 6 or less points are 3-8 vs spread. Northridge lost seven of its last ten games overall.
Fresno State was 35-46 on foul line, San Jose St 8-15 in Bulldogs' 81-74 home win Jan 16. Fresno won last five series games, winning by 13-11 points in last two visits here. Bulldogs are 2-2 on road; three of the four games were decided by 3 or less points or in OT. Mountain West home underdogs of 4+ points are 7-4 vs spread. San Jose is just 2-8 but is out of last place for first time in three years it has been in Mountain West.
Washington never trailed in 89-85 win at Arizona State Jan 16; Huskies made 9-20 on arc, ASU just 16-29 on foul line. Washington won nine of last ten series games; Sun Devils won here 78-68 LY. Huskies are 6-3 in Pac-12, but five of wins were by 4 or less points or in OT. Pac-12 home favorites of 7 or less points are 12-10 vs spread. ASU is 0-4 on Pac-12 road, losing by 10-7-5-2 points; they scored 84-86 in two Pac-12 wins.
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NCAAB: Streaks, Tips, Notes
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Creighton at Villanova
Life on the road in college basketball is never easy. But, can't sell Creighton short when they visit Villanova Wildcats on Wednesday. That's because the team has had some major success against the betting line vs a Big-East opponent. The Blue Jays are 4-0 ATS on the road this season vs the conference and a profitable 15-5-1 ATS overall the past twenty-one running the hardwood against the Big-East. Additionally, Creighton has kept backers happy last 29 games overall (20-8-1 ATS) and have made their mark last 11 taking points on the road (7-3-1 ATS).
Taking those betting numbers into account, there is still one more fact that leans in Creighton's direction. Wildcats have been a terrible play for bettors of late. Wildcats haven't cashed in five straight Big-East games moving to 3-6 ATS within the conference on the campaign including 1-3 ATS hosting a conference rival.
Wednesday's Top 25 Trends
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St. John's at Xavier
The Musketeers are one game behind Villanova, ranking second in the Big East. They're 10-1 at Cintas Center (6-5 ATS), losing only to Georgetown on Jan. 19. Key forward James Farr tweaked a hamstring in Saturday's rout of DePaul and is now questionable. Chris Mullin's Red Storm haven't won since Dec. 13, a span of 12 straight games. They're one of only four teams in the country without a victory in major conference play. St. John's has lost by 15 or more in four of the last five, but did cover twice. SJU is 4-3 ATS in its last seven, a stretch that began with a 74-66 home loss to Xavier, covering as 15-point dogs. Shot blocking center Yankuba Sima remains out for SJU but is getting closer to returning from a broken hand.
Notre Dame at Miami, Fl.
The Hurricanes aim to bounce back from an 85-69 upset loss at NC State by improving to 11-1 at home in Coral Gables. The 'Canes have a 12.8-point margin of victory in their ACC home games and are 3-0-1 ATS. The Fighting Irish won last year's regular season meeting and also eliminated UM in the tournament quarterfinals. They in lost their only visit to Miami since joining the league. PG Demetrius Jackson returned from a hamstring injury in Sunday's 85-62 win over Wake Forest and is one of the best floor generals in the country. Head coach Mike Brey has also inserted senior Austin Burgett into the starting lineup. Seven of the last nine Miami games have gone under the posted total.
Penn State at Iowa
The Nittany Lions go on the road hoping to pull an upset and snap a season-long three-game losing streak, but they're up against it. They'll be facing a rude host, one that is 11-0 at Carver-Hawkeye Arena (6-3 ATS), including 5-0 in Big Ten play, winning by double digits each time (12.2 margin of victory). Dating back to last year, the Hawkeyes have won 14 straight in Iowa City. Penn State won the last meeting between these schools, pulling an upset in the 2015 conference tournament quarterfinals. Iowa forward Jarrod Uthoff made the regional cover of this week's Sports Illustrated. He leads the Big Ten in scoring (18.6) and blocked shots (2.9). The over is 4-1 in the last five Hawkeyes games.
Boston College at Virginia
The Cavaliers come off their best effort of the season, a 63-47 romp at Louisville that looks even more impressive since the Cards bounced back with a win over North Carolina on Monday night. UVA has won four consecutive games and is 11-0 in Charlottesville (5-4 ATS), having won its last 15 there dating back to last season. BC is winless in ACC play, carrying an eight-game losing streak into this one. The Eagles are 1-6-1 ATS and have lost every league game by double-digits, falling by an average margin of 21 points. As a favorite of more than 12 points, Virginia is 2-5 ATS. This is the most they've been favored by in a game this season. The under is 10-3 in BC's last 13 board games and 9-6 in Virginia's last 15.
Creighton at Villanova
The Wildcats look to pull off a season sweep of the Blue Jays, who arrive in Philly hoping to snap a two-game losing streak with a boost for their at-large resume. Creighton has the look of a bubble team, a game above .500 in Big East play, but has won three of four on the road in league games (4-0 ATS), falling at Georgetown by only 1. Villanova won in Omaha 85-71 on Jan. 2, shooting 68 percent from the field, including an astounding 88 percent from inside the arc. 'Nova guard Josh Hart scored 25 points. The top rebounder and shot blocker for each team may be absent. The Wildcats won't have C Daniel Ochefu available due to a concussion. Blue Jays C Geoff Groselle is highly questionable with an ankle injury.
otals: 13-3-1 O/U
Maryland at Nebraska
The Terps completed a season sweep of Ohio State on Sunday, escaping Columbus 66-61. They're 3-2 in conference road games (2-2-1 ATS) and will certainly be facing a raucous environment in Lincoln. Despite great fan support, the 'Huskers have dropped four of their last six home games (1-4 ATS), but are led by talented forwards Andrew White (17.0 ppg, 6 rpg) and Shavon Shields (15.8 ppg, 5.0 rpg). The entire Terrapins starting lineup averages double-figures in scoring, led by All-American candidate Melo Trimble (14.3 ppg, 5.4 apg). Nine of Maryland's last 11 games have finished below the posted total. The over is 6-0-1 in the last seven Nebraska games.
Kansas State at Kansas
After rallying to turn back Kentucky in OT, the Jayhawks aim to get back up for another big game as the first Sunflower Showdown with rival K-State arrives. The Wildcats have won two of the last three in this series, but haven't beaten KU at Allen Fieldhouse since 2006, a stretch of nine consecutive games. The Wildcats are 1-5 on the road this season, but are actually 4-1-1 against the number. Their strength has been defense and they rank second in the Big 12 in 3-point percentage defense, allowing just 28.7 percent of shots to fall. Kansas is 13-0 in Lawrence (7-4 ATS) this season and has won 35 consecutive home games. Bill Self is 201-9 at Allen Fieldhouse. He's 23-5 against K-State as the Jayhawks head coach.
Southern Illinois at Wichita State
The Shockers have started 10-0 in Missouri Valley play and come off an impressive 78-65 win at Evansville, considered by most to be the second-best team in the conference. Wichita State avenged its only non-cover in MVC play against the Aces, improving to 9-1 against the number in league play. WSU is looking for a season sweep of the Salukis, currently tied for second in the Valley at 7-3. It dominated SIU 83-58 on Jan. 9 in front of a sellout crowd in Carbondale. The Salukis have lost consecutive games for the first time all season. The over is 5-2 through the last seven games for both schools.
Arizona at Washington State
After suffering consecutive losses to Cal and Oregon, the latter snapping a 49-game home winning streak, the 'Cats put together an impressive second half in dismantling Oregon State 80-63 on Saturday. Sniper Gabe York hit a career-high six 3-pointers and scored 24 points. Sean Miller's team is only one game above .500 in Pac-12 play, but will have just three road games left after this one and has an opportunity to put together a big February. The 'Cats are 3-3 SU and ATS away from home. They beat the Cougars 90-66 in Tucson on Jan. 16 and could get back top scoring guard Allonzo Trier from a broken hand. He's likely to be a game-time decision. The over has prevailed in nine of Arizona's last 11 games, including the first meeting between these teams. Washington State ranks last in the Pac-12 in offensive and defensive efficiency.
Steve's Screenshot
By Steve Merril
Notre Dame at Miami Florida (-5, 148.5)
Notre Dame (15-6 SU, 8-10-1 ATS) is 5-1 SU during their last six games, but the Irish have played an extremely easy schedule over that span. Four of their six games were also on their home court. #15 ranked Miami Florida (16-4 SU, 11-7-1 ATS) returns home off a terrible 69-85 road loss at NC State on Saturday as a 5-point favorite, so the Hurricanes will be looking to bounce back in this game. Miami was predictably flat in that game on Saturday after their big 80-69 home win over Duke earlier in the week.
Home court has been strong in this series the past two years with the home team going a perfect 3-0 SU, but the games were competitive as the margins of victory were just 7, 5, and 7 points each time. Both teams have been strong offensively this season as Notre Dame is averaging 78.9 points per game on 49.6% FG, while Miami is averaging 78.7 ppg on 47.5% FG shooting.
Wednesday's Top Action
By Sportsbook.ag
KANSAS ST WILDCATS (13-8) at KANSAS JAYHAWKS (17-4)
Sportsbook.ag Line: Kansas -12.5, Total: 144
Kansas State looks for its first win in Lawrence since 2006 as it visits in-state rival No. 7 Kansas.
Coach Bruce Weber’s Kansas State Wildcats come into this in-state rivalry game having lost 12 straight to Bill Self’s Jayhawks away from the friendly confines of Manhattan, KS. Kansas is actually 19-1 SU (14-6 ATS) when playing Kansas State either at home or in the Big 12 tournament. Last season, the Wildcats covered (68-57, Kansas St. +11.5) in Allen Fieldhouse for the first time in their last eight tries (dating back to 2007).
The Wildcats are coming off of a home win over Ole Miss (69-64, Kansas St. -7) which got them out of the cellar of the Big 12 conference standings (2-6 in conference play). Kansas also defeated their SEC foe this weekend, taking down No. 20 Kentucky, 90-84 in overtime on Saturday (Kansas -5.5).
The Jayhawks have uncharacteristically struggled, by their standards, in conference play so far and stand at 5-3. Kansas had been 0-5 ATS since Jan. 12th before covering Saturday’s game in overtime. Kansas’ struggles, however, have all been on the road against ranked teams, as the Jayhawks are 11-0 SU (5-4 ATS) in Allen Fieldhouse.
Kansas State is 1-5 this season as an away underdog, however, the Wildcats are solid ATS (4-1-1) in that same scenario. The total has gone OVER in five of Kansas State’s last seven road games, and it has also gone OVER in four of the last six times the Jayhawks and Wildcats have met.
While Kansas holds a decidedly upper hand at home over Kansas State, the Wildcats do currently have the last laugh in this rivalry, having beaten the then-No. 8 Jayhawks 70-63 last February (Kansas -5). Kansas State was 14-15 at that time.
Coach Weber’s teams usually make it very difficult for opposing offenses to score, and this season’s Wildcats are no exception. Allowing just 28.7% 3PT (7th NCAA), Kansas State will have a stern test defending beyond the arc against the nation’s fourth best team from deep (Kansas – 42.5% 3PT).
Unfortunately, Kansas State’s offensive struggles from that same spot could prove their undoing, as the Wildcats shoot a woeful 28.6% from deep (344th NCAA). In fact, coach Weber’s club is actually an abysmal 4-38 (10.5%) from three over their last two games. Kansas State will have to rely on their ability to create offense with their active hands on defense, (7.6 SPG, 40th NCAA) their energy on the offensive glass (12.3 OR/G, 23rd NCAA) and their ability to get to the free throw line (25 FTA/G, 32nd NCAA).
Coach Weber has seven players contributing at least 6.5 PPG for the Wildcats and, more impressively, five players averaging at least 4.4 RPG. F Wesley Iwundu (12.2 PPG, 4.9 RPG) leads the team in scoring in what’s been a breakout season for the junior. Iwundu averaged 5.8 PPG last season.
G Justin Edwards (11.9 PPG, 5.5 RPG, 1.9 SPG) is the only senior who plays more than 20 minutes for the Wildcats. Coach Weber plays a rotation of big men in F Dean Wade (10.1 PPG, 5.9 RPG), F D.J. Johnson (7.2 PPG, 4.7 RPG) and F Stephen Hurt (6.7 PPG, 4.4 RPG) who are all big bodies (6’9”+) but not great rim protectors (less than 1 BPG).
Kansas looks to continue their winning ways after the thrilling overtime win over Kentucky at home on Saturday. That victory saw junior G Wayne Selden Jr. (15.4 PPG, 51% FG, 47% 3PT) explode for 33 points, a career high. The Jayhawks offense is very good, averaging 82 PPG (17th NCAA) on 47.5 FG (30th NCAA) versus D1 opponents.
Kansas does have just an average defense (69.8 PPG allowed, 128th NCAA vs D1 opponents) but that shouldn’t come back to haunt them against the offensively challenged Wildcats. The Jayhawks take care of the ball well, with a 1.35 A/TO mark (38th NCAA vs D1 opponents) which should negate Kansas State’s quick hands on defense.
G Frank Mason III (13.3 PPG, 5 RPG, 4.7 APG) is the catalyst for the offense, but while the normally sure-handed point guard has gotten careless with the ball on the road recently (13 combined turnovers at West Virginia and Iowa State) Mason III has only committed 5 turnovers in his last three home games. Mason III has struggled with his shot recently though, shooting only 32.8% FG (31.6 % 3PT) over his last five games.
F Perry Ellis (16.3 PPG, 6.7 RPG, 49.8% FG) is a model of consistency in the paint for the Jayhawks, having hit double figures in all but one game this season. Ellis struggled with the size and length of Kentucky on Saturday night, but got to the free throw line enough to squeeze out 10 points along with 9 rebounds.
Along with Selden, Mason III, and Ellis, G Devonte’ Graham (10.5 PPG, 42.5% 3PT) is the fourth Jayhawk that sees 30+ minutes per game in an otherwise thin rotation for Self’s Kansas squad. Graham has actually been the primary setup man for this Jayhawk offense over their past five games, boasting 5.1 APG in that stretch to just 1.8 TO/G.