College Basketball Knowledge
Michigan State lost its last two games, allowing 76-77 points after 16-1 start to season; Spartans' three Big 14 wins are by 8-25-27 points. State lost last two games with Nebraska, 60-51/79-77. Huskers lost two of three at MSU in Big 14 play, losing by 10-28 points. Nebraska scored 84 ppg in winning its last three games after 0-3 start; their Big 14 losses are by 9-10-11. Big 14 double digit home favorites are 9-4 vs spread.
Texas is 0-2 on Big X road, losing by 8 at Texas Tech, 1 at TCU; their only true road win was by hoop at Stanford. Longhorns won four of last five games with West Virginia; they're 4-3 in series since WV joined Big X, with all three losses by 7 or less points. Mountaineers won both Big 14 home games, by 17 over Okla State, 11 over Kansas. Big X double digit home favorites are 3-3 vs spread.
Virginia Tech is 4-1 in ACC, with all four wins by 1 or 2 points or in OT; Hokies lost the two ACC games with Notre Dame by 7-25 points, with Tech losing 70-63 last visit here. Irish beat Duke in last game; they are 8-0 vs teams outside top 100, with seven wins by 8+ points. ACC double digit home favorites are 4-4 vs spread. Notre Dame shoots 39.3% on arc, has #11 eFG% in country.
Southern Illinois is 16-3 this year, after going 48-80 last four years; SIU is 3-10 in last 13 games with Indiana State, losing last four by 3-3-3-20 points. Salukis are 5-1 in Valley; three of their last four wins are by 5 or less points. Sycamores had won four in row before losing at Wichita by 20 last game; ISU's other Valley loss was by 8 at Evansville. MVC home favorites of 6 or less points are 2-6 vs spread.
Home side won six of last seven Wichita-Northern Iowa games; Shockers lost two of last three visits here, with win 82-73 two years ago. UNI is having down year, losing four of last five games, including home loss to Loyola as 12-point favorites last game. Panthers are 5-8 in their last 13 games after starting season 5-1. MVC hme underdogs are 3-9 vs spread. Wichita won first three MVC road games, by 27-25-16 points.
Baylor is 5-3 vs top 100 teams, winning first two Big X home games by 17-28 points; Bears are 3-4 in last seven games with Kansas State, losing three of last four visits played here. Big X home favorites of 6+ points are 4-8 vs spread. K-State is 0-2 on Big X road, losing by 3 at Texas, by 10 at Oklahoma; only other true road game was 68-66 win at Georgia. Wildcats are shooting 28.7% on arc (#338).
Colorado State won its last eight games with Air Force, winning four in row here, by 10-3-12-5 points. Rams are 2-3 in Mountain West; four of five games were decided by 4 or less points- both their MW wins are by one point. Air Force lost last four games, all by 12+ points- they lost to Nevada by 23 in only home game of those four. MW home underdogs of 4 or less points are 0-5 against the spread.
Tennessee won six of last eight games with Vanderbilt, which won here LY, its first win in last five visits to Knoxville. Vols are 5-7 in last seven games after starting season 4-1; they play fastest tempo in SEC but do not defend arc well- Vandy is hitting 40.9% on arc (#12 in US). Vandy is won its last two games after losing seven of ten before that; they lost both SEC road games. SEC home underdogs of 4 or less points are 2-5.
Home side won six of last seven Villanova-Seton Hall games; Wildcats are 4-3 in last seven meetings, after Villanova had won 10 in row in row before that. Villanova lost two of last three visits here; their last three series wins are all by 16+ points. Pirates lost 72-63 at Villanova couple weeks ago, despite Wildcats going 4-22 on arc. Seton Hall is 3-3 against top 100 teams. Big East home underdogs are 3-6 vs spread.
Louisville is quiet 14-3 this year, allowing 49 ppg while winning its first two ACC home games by 8-18 points; Cardinals won 81-59 at Florida State LY in first ACC meeting between two schools, who were Metro Conference rivals long time ago. Seminoles beat NC State/Virginia in last two games after losing three in row before that; Louisville has blocked 15.4% of foes' shots in ACC tilts. ACC single digit home faves are 7-9.
Colorado-Washington split last six meetings; five of the six games were decided by 10+ points. Huskies are 4-1 in Pac-12, with three home wins by 4 or less points, two in OT, after losing at home to Oakland/UCSB around holidays. Colorado won three of last four games; they split two road games, losing by 14 at Cal. Pac-12 underdogs are 12-5 vs spread in games where spread was less than 5 points.
UCSB won three of last four games with Long Beach, which lost its last two visits to Thunderdome by 13-15 points. Gauchos are 1-2 in league games, beating Cal Poly by 3; at 7-9, shooting 46.4% inside arc, could be down year for them. 49ers got swept by Irvine/Cal Poly last week, the Poly loss in two OTs; they're 5-11 in last sixteen games. Big West single digit home favorites are 1-7 vs spread so far this season.
UCLA is 4-3 in last seven games with Oregon State, but lost two of last three visits to Corvallis, with line win by a hoop. Bruins got swept up in Washington to open Pac-12 play; they won at Gonzaga in only other true road game. Beavers lost three of last four games; they're 2-1 at home in PAc-12, beating Oregon/Cal. Pac-12 home favorites of less than five points are 3-5 against the spread.
Armadillosports.com
NCAAB: Streaks, Tips, Notes
Sportspic.com
Wake Forest at North Carolina
North Carolina (16-2, 8-91 ATS) riding a nine game winning streak (5-4 ATS) and 5-0 (3-2 ATS) record in conference play look to remain undefeated on Dean E. Smith Center hardwood when they host Wake Forest Demon Deacons (10-7, 6-9 ATS) Wednesday evening. Tar Heels finally healthy and at full strength with six players in double digits netting a nation second best 86.4 points/game should have little trouble vs Deacs who seem to have trouble keeping the ball out of their own basket allowing opponents 79.0 points/game on 44.9% from the field, 34.9% from long range.
Bettors love-affair with North Carolina continues as Tar Heels are a whopping -17.0 point favorites for this ACC tilt in Chapel Hill. Laying that many points in this spot usually ratchets up tension for Tar Heel basketball sports bettors. That's because, Tar Heels have a habit of not responding against the betting line on home court in conference play. Tar Heels already 0-3 ATS in front of the frenzied crowd this season facing an ACC opponent are a horrendous 1-7-1 ATS last nine hosting a conference rival. Two other telling NCAA basketball betting stats that should give UNC backers pause, the Tar Heels are on a 2-7-1 ATS skid laying double digits and for whatever reason have a habit of faltering when hosting Deacs during the months of December/January going 0-4 record against the betting line.
Wednesday's Tip Sheet
By Brian Edwards
VegasInsider.com
Florida State at Louisville
As of early this morning, most betting shops had Louisville (14-3 straight up, 7-6 against the spread) installed as a 9.5-point favorite. The Cardinals will put their unbeaten home record (12-0) on the line.
FSU (12-5 SU, 7-6 ATS) has won back-to-back games since starting ACC play with three consecutive losses. Leonard Hamilton’s squad won 85-78 at North Carolina St. last Wednesday as a two-point underdog. Then on Saturday in Tallahassee, the Seminoles won a 69-62 decision over Virginia as 3.5-point ‘dogs.
Dwayne Bacon was the catalyst against UVA, scoring 18 points and pulling down nine rebounds. Malik Beasley added 17 points thanks to a 3-for-3 shooting from 3-point range. Xavier Rathan-Mayes (11 points) knocked down 7-of-8 from the free-throw line.
FSU has been an underdog six times, compiling a 4-2 spread record with three outright victories. This is the fifth straight game Hamilton’s squad has occupied the ‘dog role. FSU’s richest previous spot as an underdog came in a 72-59 loss at Miami when catching 9.5 points.
FSU is No. 46 in the RPI Rankings, going 2-3 against the Top 50 and 3-5 versus the Top 100. The Seminoles’ best wins are at Florida, vs. Virginia and over VCU on a neutral court. They have lost at Iowa, vs. North Carolina, at Miami, at Clemson and vs. Hofstra on a neutral floor.
FSU is led by Beasley, a freshman guard who averages team-highs in scoring (17.1 points per game), rebounding (5.9 RPG), free-throw percentage (85.7%) and field-goal shooting (49.0%). Beasley is also draining a team-best 41.2 percent from 3-point range.
FSU’s Dwayne Bacon, a true freshman who was a five- star recruit, is averaging 16.7 points and 5.4 rebounds per game. Rathan-Mayes is scoring at a 12.1 PPG clip and handed out a team-high 90 assists.
Louisville owns a 5-3 spread record at home after trashing Pittsburgh by a 59-41 count as a seven-point favorite last Thursday. The Cardinals were led by Damion Lee and Chinanu Onuaku, who scored 18 points apiece. Onuaku pulled down 10 rebounds, blocked three shots and had two steals. Lee finished with four steals and converted 8-of-9 attempts from the free-throw line.
Lee, a senior transfer from Drexel, is averaging a team-best 16.7 points per game. He is leading U of L in steals (1.6 SPG) and free-throw percentage (87.8%). Trey Lewis is scoring at a 12.6 PPG clip, while Onuaku is averaging 10.5 points, 8.8 rebounds and 2.1 blocked shots per contest.
Louisville’s Mangok Mathian (foot) will not return for another 3-4 weeks, according to a tweet from Jon Rothstein on Monday. Mathian has missed seven games in a row. The junior center was averaging 7.1 points, 5.7 rebounds and 1.2 blocked shots per game.
Louisville might be distracted by Saturday’s report from Matt Youmans, the Las Vegas Review-Journal’s UNLV basketball beat writer, who indicated that a source close to Pitino insists he’s interested in the UNLV job. Pitino flirted with the Rebels in 2000. When the UNLV rumor was mentioned at Pitino’s Tuesday presser, he said, “Next question, guys. Anybody have a basketball question about Florida State? I'll be glad to answer it. But please don't talk about job openings in January.”
Louisville is No. 21 in the RPI Rankings, posting a 2-3 record against the Top 100. The Cardinals’ best wins are vs. Pitt and vs. Wake Forest. They have losses at Michigan St., at Kentucky and at Clemson by 10 combined points.
The ‘under’ is 7-6 overall for the ‘Noles, but the ‘over’ is 3-2 in their road assignments. They have watched the ‘over’ go 4-2 in their last six outings.
The ‘under’ is 7-5-1 overall for U of L, 5-2-1 in its home games.
Tip-off is scheduled for 9:00 p.m. Eastern on ESPNU.
Villanova at Seton Hall
As of early this morning, most spots had Villanova (16-2 SU, 9-7-1 ATS) listed as seven-point road favorites.
Villanova is No. 1 in the RPI Rankings thanks to five wins over the Top 50 and nine against the Top 100. The Wildcats own Top-50 scalps at St. Joseph’s, at Butler, vs. Stanford (neutral court), vs. Xavier and vs. Seton Hall.
Jay Wright’s team has won eight in a row, including Saturday’s 55-50 non-covering win at Georgetown as a seven-point road ‘chalk.’ Josh Hart produced a double-double with 15 points and 12 rebounds, while Ryan Arcidiacono also scored 15 points.
Villanova gets after it at the defensive end, rankings fifth in the nation in scoring defense (60.0 PPG). The Wildcats are 11th in field-goal percentage defense, forcing foes to shoot at a 37.7 percent clip.
Hart is averaging 15.5 points and 7.1 rebounds per game. Arcidiacono is scoring at a 12.7 PPG clip and owns an 81/29 assists-to-turnovers ratio. Senior center Daniel Ochefu (10.1 PPG) is averaging team-highs in rebounding (8.4 RPG), field-goal percentage (60.8%) and blocked shots (1.8 BPG).
Villanova took its two losses at Virginia (85-76) and vs. Oklahoma (78-55) in Hawaii.
Villanova is unbeaten in four games as a road favorite, going 2-1-1 ATS.
Seton Hall (13-4 SU, 10-6 ATS) has won eight of its nine home games while compiling a 5-3 spread record. The Pirates’ only home loss came two Saturdays ago vs. Creighton when the Bluejays cruised to an 82-67 win as 4.5-point underdogs.
With a week to let that loss sink in, Kevin Willard’s team responded by capturing an 81-72 win at Providence as a six-point underdog this past Saturday. Khadeen Carrington scored a game-high 22 points by drilling 12-of-12 free throws. Isaiah Whitehead contributed 15 points, seven assists, five rebounds, two steals and two blocked shots. Derrick Gordon added 15 points and seven boards.
Seton Hall covered the number in a 72-63 loss at Villanova on Jan. 6 as a 15-point underdog. The 135 combined points dipped ‘under’ the 140.5-point total. Ochefu paced the winners with 20 points and 18 rebounds, while Hart finished with 15 points and 10 boards. Before fouling out in the losing effort, Whitehead scored a team-high 20 points. Carrington was also in double figures with 14 points.
Whitehead is averaging team-bests in scoring (15.1 PPG) and assists (4.5 APG). Angel Delgado (9.2 PPG) leads the Pirates in rebounding (9.6 RPG) and field-goal percentage (54.1%). Carrington is scoring at a 14.5 PPG clip.
Seton Hall has been dynamite as an underdog, posting a 5-1 spread record with four outright victories. The Pirates have been home ‘dogs only once, beating Wichita St. 80-76 in overtime while catching 4.5 points. They have wins at Marquette, at Providence and vs. Ole Miss on a neutral floor.
The ‘under’ is 10-6-1 overall for Villanova, 2-2-1 in its road games.
The ‘under’ is 10-6 overall for the Pirates, 5-3 in their home games.
CBS Sports College will have the broadcast at 9:00 p.m. Eastern.
B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets
Texas A&M has indefinitely suspended sophomore center Tony Trocha-Morelos after his arrest for DUI this past weekend. Trocha-Morelos has played in 17 games this season, averaging 7.6 points, 4.6 rebounds, 1.4 assists and 0.8 blocked shots per game. Nevertheless, the Aggies thumped LSU by a 71-57 count last night as seven-point home favorites. They have won nine in a row and haven’t tasted defeat since Dec. 5. The 6-0 start in SEC play is A&M’s best since winning its first seven back in 1993-94.
California will be without its leading scorer for the next 4-6 weeks. Tyrone Wallace (15.1 PPG, 5.1 RPG) has a broken bone in his right hand.
Clemson has covered the number in seven consecutive games following last night’s 69-62 loss at Virginia. The Tigers saw their five-game winning streak halted, but they took the cash as 10-point underdogs.
South Carolina won for just the second time in 14 all-time trips to Oxford last night. The Gamecocks won a 77-74 decision in overtime against a banged-up Ole Miss squad. They won outright in come-from-behind fashion as 1.5-point road favorites. The Rebels led 64-53 with 5:17 remaining but couldn’t find any offense when star guard Stefan Moody had to leave the game with a hamstring injury. Moody, who had 24 points and has scored 20 or more points in 13 consecutive games, came back in the game but didn’t score again and was clearly hobbled.
Ole Miss has lost three in a row. The Rebels were also playing without Sebastian Saiz, who is out indefinitely after undergoing surgery for a detached retina. Saiz is averaging 12.8 points and 9.8 rebounds per game. Without Saiz, the Gamecocks crushed Ole Miss on the board by a 49-37 margin.
Sindarius Thornwell was an abysmal 1-of-15 from the field for South Carolina last night.
Florida survived a game effort from Mississippi St. at the O-Dome last night. The Gators captured an 81-78 win after trailing by five at intermission. The Bulldogs took the cash as 10-point road underdogs.
Ben Howland is now 0-4 against Florida. The Gators sent three of his UCLA teams packing from the NCAA Tournament and since then, they’ve bounced the Bruins (under Steve Alford) at the 2014 South Region semifinals in Memphis.
The nation’s worst ATS teams include Illinois-Chicago (3-12 ATS), Saint Louis (2-11), Minnesota (4-12), St. John’s (5-13), Old Dominion (3-11), UC Davis (2-10) and VMI (1-8).
Wednesday's Top Action
By Sportsbook.ag
FLORIDA STATE SEMINOLES (12-5) at LOUISVILLE CARDINALS (14-3)
Sportsbook.ag Line: Louisville -10, Total 140
No. 17 Louisville and Florida State meet for the second time as ACC foes, as the Seminoles look for revenge after getting beaten by the Cardinals at home last season. 81-59 was the score when it was all said and done in Tallahassee last season between Louisville and Florida State.
Rick Pitino’s Cardinals finished with 20 assists and forced 21 turnovers (to just six Florida State assists) to punctuate the blowout (Louisville -5.5). 2016 has both the Seminoles and Cardinals featuring very different rosters than last season’s whitewash in the Donald L. Tucker Center.
While Louisville still has the consistently annual look of a strong NCAA tournament team, Leonard Hamilton’s young Seminoles are making a push to be in the field of 68 as well.
Both squads are coming off victories: Louisville having last played almost a week ago (Jan. 14) in defeating Pittsburgh at home, 59-41 (Louisville -7) and Florida State collecting two big wins as an underdog last week (at NC State, 85-78 – FSU +2 and versus Virginia, 69-62 – FSU +3.5).
The Florida State wins stopped the bleeding on an 0-3 ACC start. On 3+ days rest, Louisville has been excellent (9-1 SU, 6-2 ATS) as they’ll have had five days to prepare for the Seminoles in Wednesday night’s matchup.
While both teams feature offenses that score over 80 points per game, Louisville’s pace and production have slowed considerably against Power 5 teams and in conference play, as the Cardinals average just 67.1 PPG in those six contests.
Louisville is 3-3 SU (2-4 ATS) in those six games. Florida State is 2-3 SU (3-2 ATS) in road games this season, which includes an overtime loss in Ames to now No. 9 Iowa. The Seminoles are 2-2 SU (3-1 ATS) as road underdogs.
Louisville is 1-5 ATS in their last six games but are 12-0 SU at home this season (5-3 ATS). While the KFC Yum! Center has historically been a very tough place to play, Louisville did drop four ACC conference games at home last season. Florida State is 11-3 ATS in their last 14 road games.
For Louisville, F Mangok Mathiang (7.1 PPG, 5.7 RPG, 1.2 BPG) will miss his 8th straight game with injury, while F Phil Cofer (3.8 PPG) is out for the season for Florida State.
Florida State has retooled this season under Leonard Hamilton to have the scary kind of backcourt that would give Cardinals coach Rick Pitino fits. The Seminoles have kicked it up from the perimeter over their last two games, shooting 15-30 from three in wins over NC State and Virginia.
That said, will the incredible talented freshman duo of G Malik Beasley (17.1 PPG, 5.9 RPG, 49% FG) and G Dwayne Bacon (16.7 PPG, 5.4 RPG, 48% FG) be able to overcome the physically draining demand of playing against Louisville’s vaunted press? Bacon had a team-high 19 points in the big win over ranked Virginia, while Beasley has double-doubles in two of his last three ACC games.
It’s possible that this is the most physically talented backcourt that Louisville will play all season, as Florida State also boasts sophomore G Xavier Rathan-Mayes (12.1 PPG, 5.3 APG), however, the Seminoles get most of their buckets off of the dribble-drive and free throws (0.47 Assists/FGM, 301st NCAA), which can be a very dangerous way to play against a team that wants you to over dribble.
Florida State commits 13.2 TO/G (204th NCAA) however, to their credit, opponents only steal it from the Seminoles at a 5.1 SPG clip (39th NCAA). Unfortunately, though, Florida State’s assist-to-turnover ratio has been especially bad in their last three games (.69 A/TO compared with a season-long number of .99 A/TO).
Only three Power 5 teams have a worse assist-to-turnover ratio than the Seminoles over their last three contests.
Louisville may be known for their press, and their Hall of Fame Coach, and their willingness to historically take lots of threes (not the case this season at 16.9 3PA/Game, 294th NCAA), but they wouldn’t be where they are right now without the stellar play of F Chinanu Onuaku (10.5 PPG, 8.8 RPG, 2.1 BPG). Since his frontcourt counterpart Mathiang was lost for an extended period of time, Onuaku has been an all-out beast on the court.
Averaging 11.6 PPG and 10.6 RPG in the seven games without Mathiang, Onuaku has managed to stay on the floor (only fouled out once) and has played 30+ minutes in Louisville’s past three victories, while garnering four straight double-doubles. This is a player who averaged 3.3 PPG in 18 MPG last season.
On the strength of Onuaku’s solid play, the Cardinals rank 12th in the nation in rebounding (42.4 RPG) and are especially effective on the offensive glass (13.4 ORPG, 6th NCAA).
In the backcourt, Pitino’s club features senior transfers G Damion Lee (16.7 PPG, 47% FG) and G Trey Lewis (12.6 PPG, 42% 3PT), but both players have struggled mightily once the calendar turned to 2016. Lee is only averaging 12.3 PPG on 37% FG in his last four games, while Lewis has been downright awful, shooting 17% FG/19% 3PT and averaging under six points per game in that span. G Quentin Snider (9.8 PPG, 3.8 APG) is shooting the ball better after a rough start to the season and most recently had 21 points in a win at NC State.
Snider is 6-10 from three over his past three games. Given the nature of Florida State’s lineup, we could see freshman G Donovan Mitchell (7.5 PPG, 4.1 RPG) get some extra time on Wednesday night. The high-flying guard came into this season as highly ranked (if not higher in some publications) as Florida State’s electric freshman duo, and his length and athleticism bring something to the table that Lewis and Snider can’t offer.
Steve's Screenshot
BY Steve Merril
Nebraska at Michigan State (-14.5, 141.5)
Michigan State (16-3 SU, 10-8 ATS) comes into this game off back-to-back losses, including a home loss versus Iowa. That was a head scratching performance by the Spartans as a 9-point favorite, especially since they were playing with revenge from an earlier season loss to the Hawkeyes. Michigan State should come with a peak performance in this game, but Nebraska is playing with confidence and they are riding a 3-game winning streak.
Nebraska has matched up well versus the Spartans recently, going 3-0-1 ATS in the four head-to-head meetings the past three seasons, including back-to-back straight-up underdog wins in each game the past two years. Nebraska has been a decent defensive team this season, allowing just 66.9 points per game and 41.6% FG (versus opponents that average 71.9 ppg and 43.7%). However, Michigan State has been a great defensive team this season, allowing just 62.7 points per game and 36.7% FG (versus opponents that average 72.4 ppg and 43.5%).