Wednesday Big Ten Tips
By Brian Edwards
VegasInsider.com
Iowa at Michigan
Most books opened Michigan (13-4 straight up, 8-6-1 against the spread) as a 1.5-point home favorite.
John Beilein's squad is off a 77-70 win at Wisconsin as a 7.5-point road underdog. Nik Stauskas scored a game-high 23 points and also contributed four rebounds and four assists. His step-back trey off a between-the-legs dribble put his team up by four with 48 seconds remaining. Caris LaVert added 20 points as the Wolverines ended an 11-game losing streak in Madison.
Michigan has won seven in a row, going 5-1-1 ATS in the process. This has oddly come on the heels of losing sophomore center (and likely future first-round pick) Mitch McGary for the season due to back surgery. The Wolverines aren't better without McGary, but they are just fine without him because of the increased scoring from Stauskas and LaVert. In addition, Jon Horford and Jordan Morgan are capable 'bigs' who play solid defense and rebound well.
Iowa (15-3 SU, 11-5 ATS) has its best team in a long time and is going to make the NCAA Tournament for the first time since 2006. The Hawkeyes are 4-1 in Big Ten play and have taken the cash in four straight games, including an easy home win over Minnesota on Sunday. Aaron White and Roy-Devyn Marble led the way against the Gophers with 18 and 16 points, respectively.
Fran McCaffrey's team doesn't have a shameful defeat on its resume. Iowa's losses have come at Wisconsin (75-71), at Iowa St. (85-82) and to Villanova (88-83) in overtime on a neutral court.
Iowa is 29th in the RPI Rankings, posting a 3-3 record against RPI Top-50 opponents and a 5-3 ledger versus the RPI Top 100.
Michigan's profile is nearly identical to Iowa's. The Wolverines are 28th in the RPI, going 3-3 versus the Top 50 and 5-3 against the Top 100.
Michigan has won seven of its eight home games, compiling a 5-1 spread record. The Wolverines' lone home defeat came against Arizona in a 72-70 decision.
The 'over' has cashed in four consecutive Iowa games to improve to 11-4 overall.
The 'over' is 8-6-1 overall for Michigan, 4-2 in its home games. The Wolverines have seen the 'over' hit in three straight contests.
The home team is 8-2 ATS in the last 10 games of this rivalry.
The Big Ten Network will have the telecast at 7:00 p.m. Eastern.
Wisconsin at Minnesota
Most books opened Wisconsin as a two-point road favorite.
Since winning its first 16 games, Wisconsin (16-2 SU, 11-7 ATS) has dropped back-to-back contests at Indiana and vs. Michigan. The Badgers lost a 77-70 decision to the Wolverines on Saturday as 7.5-point home favorites. Josh Gasser had a team-high 16 points in the losing effort, draining 4-of-5 shots from 3-point range. Frank Kaminsky and Ben Brust added 14 points apiece.
Minnesota (14-5 SU, 6-9-1 ATS) has won 11 of its 12 home games while going 4-4-1 ATS. The only home setback came against Michigan (63-60).
Minnesota is off to a 3-3 start in Big Ten play, but the Gophers are mired in a 3-9-1 ATS slump. They have wins over Ohio St., Purdue and Penn St.
Minneosta went to Iowa City on Sunday and led at halftime. However, it was all Hawkeyes in the second half, as they cruised to a 94-73 victory as 8.5-point home favorites. In the losing effort, Andre Hollins had a team-best 20 points.
Richard Pitino's team is No. 30 in the RPI Rankings. The Gophers are 2-4 against RPI Top-50 opponents, 4-5 versus the RPI Top 100.
Wisconsin has a balanced scoring attack with all five starters averaging at least 9.1 PPG. Sam Dekker paces the Badgers with a 13.8 PPG average.
Wisconsin is third in the RPI Rankings. The Badgers are 5-1 against RPI Top-50 foes, 9-2 versus the RPI Top 100.
The 'over' has hit in five consecutive Wisconsin games to improve to 10-7 overall.
The 'under' is 8-6-1 overall for the Gophers, 6-2 in their home games at The Barn.
These teams split a pair of regular-season meetings last year with the home team winning each time. Minnesota won by a 58-53 count in overtime as five-point home favorites, while Wisconsin won a 45-44 decision as a 3.5-point home 'chalk.' The 'under' cashed in both contests.
Although Wisconsin has beaten Minnesota outright in four of the last five meetings, the Gophers are 6-2-1 ATS in the last nine encounters.
Tip-off is scheduled for 9:00 p.m. Eastern on the Big Ten Network.
B.E.'s Bonus Nuggets
If you missed the 3-point shooting display from Creighton's Ethan Wragge on Monday night at Wells Fargo Center in Philadelphia, you really missed something special. It was like Loyola Marymount's Jeff Fryer against Michigan in the 1990 NCAA Tournament in San Jose. It was similar to Steph Curry against Wisconsin in the Sweet 16 at Ford Field during the 2008 Tourney. It was downright nasty. Wragge finished with 27 points, making 9-of-14 attempts from behind the line. He buried seven straight at one point and I'm talking about deep jumpers that are called WraggeBombs in Omaha. The Bluejays led at Villanova by 40 at one point. They won by 28 as 6.5-point road underdogs.
Wragge is a 6-7 center, but he has stunningly attempted just six two-point field goals this year. He has taken 148 of his 154 shots from 3-point range.
George Washington will be without its second-leading scorer Kethan Savage for the next 6-8 weeks. Savage, who averages 13.4 PPG, has a broken his foot.
Syracuse will be without reserve big man DaJuan Coleman for the rest of the season. He needs surgery to repair a leg injury. Coleman was averaging 4.2 points and 4.1 rebounds per game.
College Basketball Information
UMass beat Richmond 79-68/70-65 last two years; they're 2-3 in their last five visits here; 16-1 Minutemen won last six games, with four wins by 5 or less points- they're 4-0 in true road games, with three wins by 10+ points. Spiders are 7-2 at home, losing to Minnesota/Ohio; they're 2-6 vs top 100 teams, beating Delaware/Dayton. A-13 favorites are 6-2 vs spread when number is 4 or less points.
Michigan won 10 of last 12 games with Iowa, which lost its last four in Crisler Arena by 15-14-14-28 points. Wolverines won last seven games, are 5-0 in league, winning home games by 23-13 points; they're making 62% of 2-point shots in league. Iowa won last three games, scoring 90.3 ppg; they won at Ohio State, after losing at Iowa State/Wisconsin in true road games. Iowa is making 40.3% from arc in league games. Big Dozen home favorites of less than 10 points are 0-8.
VCU is 14-4 but 1-2 in true road games, with only win at Belmont back on Dec 1- they lost at Northern Iowa/GW, their only two losses in last dozen games. Rams force turnovers 28.1% of time, #1 in US, 25.6% in league games- their three A-13 foes shot 18% from arc. Dayton lost two of first three league games, losing to Saint Louis at home; they're 2-2 vs top 50 teams, beating Gonzaga/California.
Akron won 11 of last 13 games with Eastern Michigan, winning the last three by 14-30-8 points; Zips won four of last five games, winning last road game in double OT at Ohio- they're turning ball over 20.8% of time. Eagles are 3-1 in MAC, beating WMU by 19 in only home game- they're forcing turnovers 22% of time (#22 in US). MAC single digit home favorites are 3-7 against the spread.
Duke lost both its true road games this year, allowing 79-72 points in losses at Notre Dame/Clemson; Blue Devils lost two of last three games with Miami, after winning 11 of previous 12 meetings- they've got no inside presence (last in ACC in blocked shots). Miami's 40.8eFG% is #1 in ACC- Hurricanes are 2-2 in ACC, despite allowing 52.8 ppg. ACC home underdogs are 3-7 vs spread, 1-5 if number was less than 5 points.
West Virginia (-1) won 89-86 in OT at Texas Tech Jan 6, after trailing by 3 with 0:27 left; Mountaineers were +7 in turnovers, but made only 13-22 on foul line- they won three of four series games, with three of four games decided by 3 or less points. Big X single home favorites are 3-5 against spread. Tech won last two games by 10-11 points, with win at TCU. West Virginia lost its last three games since beating Tech.
Last three Arkansas games all went OT, with Hogs losing twice; they're 1-3 in SEC, beating Kentucky at buzzer, losing road games at A&M by 16, Georgia by 5. Home side won five of last six Arkansas-Tennessee games; Razorbacks lost last three visits here, by 22-7-19 points. Vols are turning ball over 23.1% of time in SEC games. SEC home favorites are 11-7 vs spread, 5-3 if they laid 7 or less points.
Wichita State won 10 of last 11 games with Illinois State, winning 66-47 at home two weeks ago, when Redbirds were 7-26 from arc, Shockers 11-22 on foul line. Wichita won last three visits here by 14-1-13 points; Shockers are 6-0 in Valley, winning road games by 15 at SIU, 3 in OT at Missouri State. Illinois State won last three Valley games, won seven in a row at home overall. MVC home underdogs are 4-5-1 vs spread.
Ole Miss swept Vandy LY by 10ot-12 points, after going 1-10 against Vandy in previous 11 meetings; they won here LY despite being down 13 with 8:39 left, ending 4+-game skid here. Commodores lost three of last four games but beat Missouri in last home game. SEC home teams are 9-1-1 vs spread in games with spread of 3 or less points. Ole Miss has best eFG% defense in SEC, blocking 17.4% of shots so far.
Wisconsin lost last two games, allowing 76 ppg after 16-0 start; they're forcing least turnovers in league games and lost at Indiana despite making 68% of shots inside arc. Minnesota beat Purdue/Ohio State in last two home games after losing by 3 to Michigan; Gophers are 3-3 in league, 2-4 vs top 25 teams. Big Dozen home dogs are 6-5 vs spread, 0-3 if number was less than 3 points.
LaSalle won its last three games vs St Bonaventure, with two of wins in OT; Explorers are 5-0 this month, with three A-13 wins and two more in Big 5- they're 1-2 in road games outside of Philly, winning at Duquesne by 19. Bonnies lost last three games by 5-6-8 points; they're shooting 28.6% from arc, turning ball over 22.3% of time in league games. A-13 home favorites of 4 or less points are 4-1 vs spread.
Home side won Utah State's first five games in Mountain West; Aggies lost last three road games by 1-8-4 points- they're making 43.8% from arc in league games. UNLV lost itslast two home games, to Air Force, Nevada, then played better in road trip at New Mexico/San Diego State; they've made 22.9% from arc in conference games. MW home favorites are 9-14 vs spread, 4-1 if they're laying 7 or less points.
USC is 0-5 in Pac-12, losing all five games by 18+, but if Golden Bears look ahead to UCLA game, they could lose to team they've beaten four times in row, winning last two visits here 75-49/72-64. Cal won its first three Pac-12 road games by 7-13-5 points. Pac-12 home underdogs are 6-4 against spread. USC lost by 19-20 to Arizona schools in its first two Pac-12 home games; they're shooting 25.4% from arc in league.
Armadillosports.com
Duke heads to Miami, Fl.
By Sportsbook.ag
Duke Blue Devils (14-4 SU, 10-8 ATS) at Miami Hurricanes (10-7, 6-7 ATS)
Sportsbook.ag Line: Duke -5
Still seeking its first true road win this season, No. 18 Duke heads to Miami where it got drubbed last season.
The Blue Devils fell 90-63 to the Hurricanes in Coral Gables last season, but at 2-3 SU (3-2 ATS) in conference play this year, this is a much weaker Miami team this season. The 'Canes have lost both of their ACC home games to Virginia Tech and Florida State and are just 4-4 SU (1-4 ATS) at home this season. However, they are coming off a strong 56-42 road win at Georgia Tech on Saturday, and over the past two seasons are 17-3 ATS (85%) coming off a double-digit victory. Although Miami is a mediocre 6-7 ATS overall this season, the club is 5-2 ATS (4-3 SU) as an underdog. Duke has yet to win an ACC game on the road, losing at Clemson and Notre Dame. In those two games, they were outrebounded by an average of 13.5 RPG. The Blue Devils are 10-8 ATS overall this season, and even though they have failed to cover in two of their past three contests, they have a 15-4 ATS mark (79%) when that has happened over the past two seasons. Although Duke is 12-3 SU in this series since 2005, the Hurricanes are 6-1-1 ATS in the past eight meetings in this series, covering in three straight contests (2-1 SU) against the Blue Devils.
Duke plays an up-tempo brand of basketball, scoring 82.6 PPG (19th in Div. I) on a 48.4% shooting clip (28th in nation) with 15.5 APG (35th in Div. I). Impressively, Mike Krzyzewski’s squad is hitting 9.2 threes per game (8th in Div. I) on a strong 41.4% clip (10th in nation), while turning it over only 9.6 times per game (7th fewest in nation). Freshman PF Jabari Parker (19.1 PPG, 7.3 RPG) leads the team in scoring and rebounding, and is coming off a game against NC State in which he scored 23 points on 7-of-14 FG (2-of-2 threes). That ended a funk of five games in which he averaged only 10.8 PPG on 32% FG (5-of-21 threes). Like Parker, 6-foot-8 SF Rodney Hood (17.9 PPG, 4.3 RPG) has size and plays on the perimeter, hitting 2.1 threes per game on a 46% clip. He started off conference play with 24.7 PPG in his first three games, but has just 12.5 PPG in the past two ACC games. Helping those two rebound down low is sophomore C Amile Jefferson (6.6 PPG, 6.8 RPG), who accumulates those numbers in only 19.0 MPG. His boardwork has increased to 9.6 RPG in ACC play. PG Quinn Cook (13.1 PPG, 5.7 APG) paces the team in passing and importantly only coughs up the rock 1.9 times per game (3.0 Ast/TO ratio), impressive given the amount he has the ball and his team-high 34.7 MPG. Although Cook was a dreadful 1-for-12 FG in the loss at Miami last season, he still averaged 5.5 RPG and 5.0 APG in the two meetings. Also on the perimeter, SGs Andre Dawkins (8.9 PPG, 45% threes) and Rasheed Sulaimon (8.4 PPG, 49% threes) are both shooting very well from downtown. Sulaimon was Duke's high scorer in its loss at Miami last season with 16 points and four steals
The Hurricanes have struggled on offense all season, scoring a pithy 62.4 PPG (335th in Div. I) on 42.2% FG (281st in nation) and 31.9% threes (274th in Div. I). Senior SG Rion Brown (14.1 PPG, 6.4 RPG) is the team's only double-digit scorer, hoisting 5.1 threes per game and hitting 1.6 per game (32% threes). He scored just seven points (1-for-7 FG) over 33 minutes in last season's two games against Duke as a reserve. But in his past three contests, Brown has a lofty 17.3 PPG on 51% FG (9-of-20 threes). Senior SG Garrius Adams (9.8 PPG) joins him in the backcourt, though he has been quiet with only 6.2 PPG on 11-of-39 FG (28%) in the team’s past five contests. His 2.8 APG and 1.6 SPG lead the team, but he carries a pedestrian 1.5 Ast/TO ratio. Six-foot-9 senior PF Donnavan Kirk (9.9 PPG, 6.7 RPG) will look to shut Parker down in the paint, averaging a team-high 2.2 BPG. He’s averaging 17.5 PPG on a blistering 78% FG (14-of-18) over the team’s past two games. Fellow big man PF James Kelly (7.8 PPG, 4.6 RPG) joins him down low, with both members of the duo hitting more than 50% FG for the season. But Kelly's offense has been non-existent in the past three games where he's combined for five points on 1-of-6 shooting.
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