College Basketball Betting News and Trends For Saturday, March 10, 2018

Saturday’s college basketball
Atlantic 14 tourney, Washington DC
St Joe’s ruined Rhode Island’s Senior Day with a 78-48 thrashing of the Rams Feb 27; URI was 3-29 on arc in game that was 35-16 at the half. Teams split last six meetings overall. St Joe’s won seven of its last eight games after starting season 9-14; Hawks outscored George Mason 42-24 in second half of 68-49 win yesterday- St Joe’s only played seven guys, three of them 32:00+. URI split its last six games overall; they beat VCU by 9 yesterday, outscoring VCU 18-8 over last 6:21 of game. Rams played two starters 38:00+- no one else played more than 30:00.

St Bonaventure outlasted Davidson 117-113 in triple OT in Olean Feb 27; they lost 83-73 in first meeting in Charlotte. Bonnies are 3-2 in this series- they lost 90-86 in OT to Davidson in this event two years ago. Bonnies won their last 13 games; they beat Richmond by 6 yesterday, after nearly squandering a 17-point lead with 6:25 left. Mobley/Adams played whole 40:00 yesterday; no other Bonnie played more than 30:00. Davidson won six of its last seven games, with only loss the 3OT game in Olean; they crushed St Louis Friday- four Wildcats played 33:00+.

AAC tournament, Orlando
Home side won both Wichita-Houston games this season; Shockers won first meeting 81-63 at home, then lost rematch 73-59 in Houston Jan 20. Wichita won eight of its last nine games, with only loss by point at Cincinnati; Shockers beat Temple 89-81 last nite- Shamet was only Shocker to play more than 30:00. Houston won nine of last ten games, with only loss at Memphis; Cougars shot 71% inside arc in rout of UCF last night- they last won their conference tourney in 2010, are 4-7 in this event since then. Wichita is 11-3 in last 14 conference tourney games.

Sun Belt tournament, New Orleans
UL-Lafayette beat Tex-Arlington twice this season, 77-65 in Arlington, then 100-79 at home in last meeting Feb 17. Ragin’ Cajuns are 8-3 vs UTA in Sun Belt meetings. ULL won 17 of its last 19 games; they made 14-25 on arc in easy win over Texas St yesterday- they led 37-15 at half. Ragin’ Cajuns are #51 experience team in country. Arlington starts five seniors, is most experienced team in country; Mavericks won four in row and seven of last nine games- they played two guys more than 30:00 in easy win over Appalachian State Friday.

ACC tournament, Brooklyn
Duke-North Carolina games are emotional; hard to play a real good team the next day. This is 4th game in four days for UNC. Virginia is 6-4 in its last ten games with Carolina- they lost to Tar Heels in two of last three ACC tourneys, both by 4 points. Carolina won seven of its last nine games overall; they beat Duke by 5 Friday, playing three guys 33:00+. UNC got smothered 61-49 at Virginia Jan 6- UNC was held to 21 2nd half points. Virginia won its last seven games overall; they won their last seven games. Three Cavaliers played 34:00+ in Friday’s win over Clemson.

Big X tournament, Kansas City
Kansas beat West Virginia twice this season, by 5-8 points; Jayhawks are 8-4 vs Mountaineers in Big X meetings. Kansas won six of its last seven games; they won last two days by 14-16 points. Jayhawks are 27-5 in last 32 Big X tourney games. Kansas played three guys 35:00+ last night vs K-State. West Virginia is 6-3 in its last nine games; they’re 13-6 vs top 50 teams this season, went WWL in last two Big X tourneys. Mountaineers had tough 66-63 win over Texas Tech last night- they made 10-20 on arc, played three guys 32:00+.

Big East tournament, NYC
Providence won four of its last five games, winning last two days in OT; they rallied back from down 17 to upset Xavier Friday- three Friars played 40:00+ Friday, after four played 40:00+ in Thursday’s OT win. Villanova won its last four games, winning last two days by 19-24 points. Providence/Villanova split pair of games this year; Wildcats won first meeting 89-69 at home, but lost rematch 76-71 on Feb 14. Villanova won 10 of last 12 series games; they beat Friars in two of last three Big East tourneys, by 2-8 points.

Big Sky tournament, Reno
Montana won its last five games; they needed OT to hold off Northern Colorado 91-89 last nite, after trailing by 6 with 1:06 left. Four Grizzlies played 31:00+; two played 40:00+. Eastern Washington won its last eight games, first of which was 74-65 home win over Montana Feb 15; Eagles shot 62.5% inside arc that night. Teams split last ten series games; EWU beat Montana 69-65 in this event three years ago. EWU shot 64% inside arc in win over Southern Utah Friday- only two Eagles played 32:00+. Montana is 10-4 in last 14 Big Sky tourney games.

Mountain West tournament, Thomas & Mack Center, Las Vegas
New Mexico made 13-29 on arc, rallied back from down 10 at half to beat San Diego State 79-75 in only meeting this season. Lobos won last three series games- since ’04, they’re 4-1 vs Aztecs in MW tourney. San Diego State won its last eight games; they were up 30 at half yesterday against Nevada. Only one Aztec played 30:00+ last nite. New Mexico won won its last seven games; they played eight guys 21:00+ last nite, no one more than 29:00 in workmanlike win over Utah State. San Diego State held five of its last seven opponents under 65 points.

Conference USA tournament, Frisco, TX
Western Kentucky beat Marshall twice this season, 112-87 in Huntington, then 85-74 in rematch Jan 27; Hilltoppers are 4-5 overall vs Marshall in C-USA games. WKU played four guys 32:00+ in 57-49 win over Old Dominion Friday- Hilltoppers won 17 of its last 21 games; they’re 9-7 vs teams ranked in top 125 this season. Marshall plays fast tempo; five of their last six games had 75+ possessions. Thundering Herd won nine of last 11 games; they played only seven guys last nite in fairly easy win over Southern Miss, with three of them playing 34:00+.

MAC tournament, Cleveland
Toledo star Fletcher got hurt last nite, is likely out here. Buffalo opened MAC play with a 104-94 home win over Toledo, just their 2nd win in last six series games. Toledo won its first two MAC tourney games by total of three points; they’re 4-3 in last seven games overall. Rockets played four starters 36:00+ last night in 64-63 win over EMU, making 12-22 on arc. Buffalo won its last five games, winning first two MAC tourney games by 15-17 points; Bulls have only one senior in their rotation- they played two guys 32:00+ in 78-61 win over Kent State last night.

Big West tournament, Anaheim
Road team won both Fullerton-Irvine games this season; Titans won first meeting 67-64, then lost rematch 63-58 at home Feb 3. Irvine won 11 of last 13 series games, but lost two of last three. Irvine won 10 of their last 12 games overall; they’re 11-4 in last 15 Big West tourney games; Anteaters won their first two tourney games by total of 4 points- they played only one guy more than 28:00 in ragged 61-58 win over UCSB. Fullerton won seven of its last nine games, winning first tourney games by 2-3 points. Three Titans played 32:00+ last night.

Pac-12 tournament, T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas
Arizona was +18 (40-22) on boards in 81-67 home win over USC in only meeting Feb 10; Wildcats won last four series games, and 10 of last 12. Arizona outscored UCLA 11-0 in OT win last nite; Wildcats played three starters 40:00+, a 4th starter 38:00. Wildcats won seven of their last eight games overall- three of their last six games went OT. USC won six of its last seven games; they won last two nights by 13-20 points, allowing 51 ppg. Trojans aren’t deep; they don’t have a backup PG right now- they used four starters 36:00+ last night, even in an easy win.

NCAAB
Long Sheet

Saturday, March 10

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

TX-ARLINGTON (20 - 12) vs. LA-LAFAYETTE (27 - 5) - 3/10/2018, 12:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TX-ARLINGTON is 2-8 ATS (-6.8 Units) in road games against conference opponents this season.
LA-LAFAYETTE is 13-6 ATS (+6.4 Units) as a favorite this season.
LA-LAFAYETTE is 14-5 ATS (+8.5 Units) against conference opponents this season.
LA-LAFAYETTE is 28-14 ATS (+12.6 Units) in road games in March games since 1997.
LA-LAFAYETTE is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) on Saturday games this season.
LA-LAFAYETTE is 13-6 ATS (+6.4 Units) after a conference game this season.
LA-LAFAYETTE is 39-23 ATS (+13.7 Units) in road games in all tournament games since 1997.
LA-LAFAYETTE is 30-12 ATS (+16.8 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 77+ points/game after 15+ games since 1997.
TX-ARLINGTON is 50-25 ATS (+22.5 Units) as an underdog since 1997.
TX-ARLINGTON is 10-1 ATS (+8.9 Units) revenging a road loss vs opponent over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
LA-LAFAYETTE is 4-1 against the spread versus TX-ARLINGTON over the last 3 seasons
LA-LAFAYETTE is 4-2 straight up against TX-ARLINGTON over the last 3 seasons
4 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

GA SOUTHERN (21 - 11) vs. GEORGIA ST (22 - 10) - 3/10/2018, 3:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
GA SOUTHERN is 5-1 against the spread versus GEORGIA ST over the last 3 seasons
GEORGIA ST is 3-3 straight up against GA SOUTHERN over the last 3 seasons
4 of 6 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

MEMPHIS (21 - 12) vs. CINCINNATI (28 - 4) - 3/10/2018, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MEMPHIS is 160-112 ATS (+36.8 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games since 1997.
CINCINNATI is 119-159 ATS (-55.9 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games since 1997.

Head-to-Head Series History
MEMPHIS is 3-2 against the spread versus CINCINNATI over the last 3 seasons
CINCINNATI is 4-1 straight up against MEMPHIS over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

HOUSTON (25 - 6) vs. WICHITA ST (25 - 6) - 3/10/2018, 3:30 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
WICHITA ST is 1-1 against the spread versus HOUSTON over the last 3 seasons
WICHITA ST is 1-1 straight up against HOUSTON over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

ST JOSEPHS (16 - 15) vs. RHODE ISLAND (24 - 6) - 3/10/2018, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
RHODE ISLAND is 31-20 ATS (+9.0 Units) as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.
RHODE ISLAND is 21-9 ATS (+11.1 Units) off a win against a conference rival over the last 2 seasons.
ST JOSEPHS is 22-10 ATS (+11.0 Units) in road games against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons.
ST JOSEPHS is 22-11 ATS (+9.9 Units) in road games after a conference game over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
ST JOSEPHS is 3-2 against the spread versus RHODE ISLAND over the last 3 seasons
ST JOSEPHS is 3-2 straight up against RHODE ISLAND over the last 3 seasons
4 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

DAVIDSON (19 - 11) vs. ST BONAVENTURE (25 - 6) - 3/10/2018, 3:30 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
DAVIDSON is 3-2 against the spread versus ST BONAVENTURE over the last 3 seasons
DAVIDSON is 3-2 straight up against ST BONAVENTURE over the last 3 seasons
4 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

ALABAMA (19 - 14) vs. KENTUCKY (22 - 10) - 3/10/2018, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
KENTUCKY is 87-60 ATS (+21.0 Units) in March games since 1997.

Head-to-Head Series History
KENTUCKY is 5-1 against the spread versus ALABAMA over the last 3 seasons
KENTUCKY is 6-0 straight up against ALABAMA over the last 3 seasons
4 of 6 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

ARKANSAS (23 - 10) vs. TENNESSEE (24 - 7) - 3/10/2018, 3:30 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
ARKANSAS is 3-1 against the spread versus TENNESSEE over the last 3 seasons
ARKANSAS is 4-0 straight up against TENNESSEE over the last 3 seasons
2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

CORNELL (12 - 15) vs. HARVARD (17 - 12) - 3/10/2018, 12:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
HARVARD is 29-15 ATS (+12.5 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
HARVARD is 29-15 ATS (+12.5 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
HARVARD is 10-3 ATS (+6.7 Units) against conference opponents this season.
HARVARD is 15-6 ATS (+8.4 Units) on Saturday games over the last 2 seasons.
HARVARD is 10-3 ATS (+6.7 Units) after a conference game this season.
HARVARD is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) off a win against a conference rival this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
CORNELL is 3-2 against the spread versus HARVARD over the last 3 seasons
HARVARD is 5-1 straight up against CORNELL over the last 3 seasons
6 of 6 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

YALE (16 - 14) at PENNSYLVANIA (22 - 8) - 3/10/2018, 3:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
YALE is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) as a road underdog of 3.5 to 6 points over the last 3 seasons.
YALE is 7-1 ATS (+5.9 Units) when the total is 140 to 149.5 this season.
YALE is 136-98 ATS (+28.2 Units) in road games since 1997.
YALE is 136-98 ATS (+28.2 Units) in road lined games since 1997.
YALE is 88-63 ATS (+18.7 Units) in road games against conference opponents since 1997.
YALE is 92-61 ATS (+24.9 Units) when playing with 5 or 6 days rest since 1997.
YALE is 86-61 ATS (+18.9 Units) in road games after a conference game since 1997.
YALE is 32-17 ATS (+13.3 Units) after allowing 80 points or more since 1997.
YALE is 47-26 ATS (+18.4 Units) after scoring 80 points or more since 1997.
PENNSYLVANIA is 97-136 ATS (-52.6 Units) in all home games since 1997.
PENNSYLVANIA is 97-136 ATS (-52.6 Units) in home lined games since 1997.
PENNSYLVANIA is 37-60 ATS (-29.0 Units) in home games on Saturday games since 1997.
PENNSYLVANIA is 56-80 ATS (-32.0 Units) in home games after a conference game since 1997.
PENNSYLVANIA is 2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
YALE is 4-2 against the spread versus PENNSYLVANIA over the last 3 seasons
YALE is 4-2 straight up against PENNSYLVANIA over the last 3 seasons
3 of 6 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

W VIRGINIA (24 - 9) vs. KANSAS (26 - 7) - 3/10/2018, 6:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
KANSAS is 4-3 against the spread versus W VIRGINIA over the last 3 seasons
KANSAS is 5-2 straight up against W VIRGINIA over the last 3 seasons
5 of 7 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

SAN DIEGO ST (21 - 10) vs. NEW MEXICO (19 - 14) - 3/10/2018, 6:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
NEW MEXICO is 3-2 against the spread versus SAN DIEGO ST over the last 3 seasons
NEW MEXICO is 3-2 straight up against SAN DIEGO ST over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

PROVIDENCE (21 - 12) vs. VILLANOVA (29 - 4) - 3/10/2018, 6:30 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
PROVIDENCE is 5-2 against the spread versus VILLANOVA over the last 3 seasons
VILLANOVA is 5-2 straight up against PROVIDENCE over the last 3 seasons
4 of 7 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

TOLEDO (23 - 10) vs. BUFFALO (25 - 8) - 3/10/2018, 7:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
BUFFALO is 2-2 against the spread versus TOLEDO over the last 3 seasons
BUFFALO is 2-2 straight up against TOLEDO over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

N CAROLINA (25 - 9) vs. VIRGINIA (30 - 2) - 3/10/2018, 8:30 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
VIRGINIA is 3-2 against the spread versus N CAROLINA over the last 3 seasons
VIRGINIA is 3-2 straight up against N CAROLINA over the last 3 seasons
4 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

MARSHALL (23 - 10) vs. W KENTUCKY (24 - 9) - 3/10/2018, 8:30 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
MARSHALL is 4-2 against the spread versus W KENTUCKY over the last 3 seasons
MARSHALL is 4-2 straight up against W KENTUCKY over the last 3 seasons
4 of 6 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

USC (23 - 10) vs. ARIZONA (26 - 7) - 3/10/2018, 10:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
ARIZONA is 3-2 against the spread versus USC over the last 3 seasons
ARIZONA is 4-1 straight up against USC over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

CS-FULLERTON (19 - 11) vs. UC-IRVINE (18 - 16) - 3/10/2018, 12:00 AM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
UC-IRVINE is 3-3 against the spread versus CS-FULLERTON over the last 3 seasons
UC-IRVINE is 4-2 straight up against CS-FULLERTON over the last 3 seasons
4 of 6 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

E WASHINGTON (20 - 13) vs. MONTANA (25 - 7) - 3/10/2018, 8:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
E WASHINGTON is 3-1 against the spread versus MONTANA over the last 3 seasons
MONTANA is 2-2 straight up against E WASHINGTON over the last 3 seasons
4 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

MD-BALT COUNTY (23 - 10) at VERMONT (27 - 6) - 3/10/2018, 11:00 AM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
VERMONT is 6-0 straight up against MD-BALT COUNTY over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

NC CENTRAL (18 - 15) vs. HAMPTON (19 - 14) - 3/10/2018, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
HAMPTON is 2-1 against the spread versus NC CENTRAL over the last 3 seasons
HAMPTON is 2-1 straight up against NC CENTRAL over the last 3 seasons
2 of 3 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

TEXAS SOUTHERN (14 - 19) vs. ARK-PINE BLUFF (14 - 20) - 3/10/2018, 5:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
TEXAS SOUTHERN is 4-2 straight up against ARK-PINE BLUFF over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

SF AUSTIN ST (27 - 6) vs. SE LOUISIANA (22 - 10) - 3/10/2018, 9:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
SF AUSTIN ST is 2-1 straight up against SE LOUISIANA over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

GRAND CANYON (22 - 10) vs. NEW MEXICO ST (27 - 5) - 3/10/2018, 10:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
NEW MEXICO ST is 4-2 straight up against GRAND CANYON over the last 3 seasons
__________________

NCAAB

Saturday, March 10

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Trend Report
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

UMBC @ VERMONT
UMBC

No trends to report
VERMONT

No trends to report
CORNELL @ HARVARD
CORNELL

The total has gone OVER in 5 of Cornell's last 5 games when playing Harvard
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Cornell's last 6 games
HARVARD

Harvard is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Cornell
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Harvard's last 5 games when playing Cornell
TEXAS-ARLINGTON @ LOUISIANA-LAFAYETTE
TEXAS-ARLINGTON

The total has gone OVER in 5 of Texas-Arlington's last 6 games when playing Louisiana-Lafayette
Texas-Arlington is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
LOUISIANA-LAFAYETTE

Louisiana-Lafayette is 17-2 SU in its last 19 games
Louisiana-Lafayette is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Texas-Arlington
SAINT JOSEPH'S @ RHODE ISLAND
SAINT JOSEPH'S

Saint Joseph's is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games
Saint Joseph's is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
RHODE ISLAND

Rhode Island is 19-3 SU in its last 22 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Rhode Island's last 5 games when playing Saint Joseph's
MEMPHIS @ CINCINNATI
MEMPHIS

Memphis is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games
Memphis is 6-2 ATS in its last 8 games
CINCINNATI

Cincinnati is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
Cincinnati is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing Memphis
ALABAMA @ KENTUCKY
ALABAMA

The total has gone UNDER in 14 of Alabama's last 19 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Alabama's last 7 games when playing Kentucky
KENTUCKY

Kentucky is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Alabama
Kentucky is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games
NORTH CAROLINA CENTRAL @ HAMPTON
NORTH CAROLINA CENTRAL

No trends to report
HAMPTON

No trends to report
YALE @ PENNSYLVANIA
YALE

Yale is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games
Yale is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games
PENNSYLVANIA

Pennsylvania is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
Pennsylvania is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games
GEORGIA SOUTHERN @ GEORGIA STATE
GEORGIA SOUTHERN

Georgia Southern is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Georgia State
Georgia Southern is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games
GEORGIA STATE

The total has gone OVER in 8 of Georgia State's last 10 games
Georgia State is 13-4 SU in its last 17 games
ARKANSAS @ TENNESSEE
ARKANSAS

Arkansas is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Tennessee
Arkansas is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Tennessee
TENNESSEE

Tennessee is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Tennessee's last 5 games
DAVIDSON @ ST. BONAVENTURE
DAVIDSON

Davidson is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Davidson's last 5 games when playing St. Bonaventure
ST. BONAVENTURE

St. Bonaventure is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of St. Bonaventure's last 5 games when playing Davidson
HOUSTON @ WICHITA STATE
HOUSTON

Houston is 9-1 SU in its last 10 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Houston's last 5 games
WICHITA STATE

The total has gone OVER in 11 of Wichita State's last 12 games
Wichita State is 8-1 SU in its last 9 games
TEXAS SOUTHERN @ ARKANSAS-PINE BLUFF
TEXAS SOUTHERN

No trends to report
ARKANSAS-PINE BLUFF

No trends to report
WEST VIRGINIA @ KANSAS
WEST VIRGINIA

West Virginia is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of West Virginia's last 5 games
KANSAS

Kansas is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games
Kansas is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing West Virginia
SAN DIEGO STATE @ NEW MEXICO
SAN DIEGO STATE

San Diego State is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
San Diego State is 7-1 ATS in its last 8 games
NEW MEXICO

New Mexico is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
New Mexico is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games
PROVIDENCE @ VILLANOVA
PROVIDENCE

Providence is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Villanova
Providence is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
VILLANOVA

Villanova is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Villanova's last 7 games
TOLEDO @ BUFFALO
TOLEDO

Toledo is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Toledo's last 8 games when playing Buffalo
BUFFALO

Buffalo is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
Buffalo is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
EASTERN WASHINGTON @ MONTANA
EASTERN WASHINGTON

The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Eastern Washington's last 5 games when playing Montana
Eastern Washington is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games
MONTANA

Montana is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Montana's last 5 games when playing Eastern Washington
MARSHALL @ WESTERN KENTUCKY
MARSHALL

The total has gone OVER in 5 of Marshall's last 6 games
Marshall is 9-2 SU in its last 11 games
WESTERN KENTUCKY

Western Kentucky is 17-4 SU in its last 21 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Western Kentucky's last 5 games
NORTH CAROLINA @ VIRGINIA
NORTH CAROLINA

North Carolina is 9-2 SU in its last 11 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of North Carolina's last 5 games
VIRGINIA

Virginia is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Virginia's last 5 games when playing North Carolina
STEPHEN F. AUSTIN @ SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA
STEPHEN F. AUSTIN

No trends to report
SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA

No trends to report
USC @ ARIZONA
USC

The total has gone UNDER in 5 of USC's last 5 games
USC is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games
ARIZONA

Arizona is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games
Arizona is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games when playing USC
GRAND CANYON @ NEW MEXICO STATE
GRAND CANYON

Grand Canyon is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
Grand Canyon is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing New Mexico State
NEW MEXICO STATE

New Mexico State is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
New Mexico State is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Grand Canyon
__________________

Get to know your mid majors: Betting profiles for small conference teams in the NCAA Tournament
Ashton Grewal

The Spartans won outright as 8.5-point underdogs at NC State back in December.

The Gonzaga Bulldogs punched their ticket into the NCAA Tournament for a 20th consecutive season by winning the West Coast Conference in convincing fashion over BYU. From Dan Dickau to Adam Morrison to Kelly Olynyk – sports bettors are familiar with the Zags’ knack for making noise in March.

The program has grown too much under head coach Mark Few to be lumped in with the rest of the small conference teams filling out the field. The Bulldogs earned a No. 1 seed in the tournament a year ago and made it all the way to national championship game before bowing out to the Tar Heels.

Gonzaga is the exception not the rule when it comes to mid major teams. Most squads from the lesser conferences are unknown entities when they appear on the bracket.

Murray State Racers

Record: 26-5 SU, 17-11 ATS, 14-14 O/U
Conference: Ohio Valley champs

Best win: 17-point win against Belmont in the conference tournament championship game.

Worst loss: 14-point loss to the Saint Louis as a 3.5-point favorite.

What they do best: Murray State owns the 21st most efficient offense in the country and nets 1.119 points per offensive possession. The Racers aren’t a dominate 3-point shooting team but they are highly-effective when they do shoot from beyond the arc.

Weakness: They don’t devote many minutes to their big men and are better off when they’re playing small ball. A matchup against an opponent with a stacked frontcourt – like say Duke – in the first round would be less than ideal for Murray State supporters.

Radford Highlanders

Record: 22-12 SU, 5-4 ATS, 3-6 O/U
Conference: Big South champs

Best win: The Highlanders beat regular season Big South champs N.C. Asheville by 20 points at the start of conference play.

Worst loss: They lost by 12 points to Vanderbilt back in November. The Commodores finished with just 12 regular season wins and were the second worst team in the SEC.

What they do best: In a word – defend. The Highlanders allowed fewer than 54 points in each of their conference tournament games and only 17 other teams in college hoops surrendered fewer points per game during the regular season.

Weakness: They won’t be able to win in a shootout against an up-tempo team. Virginia Tech, for example, crushed Radford 95-68 in the first week of December.

Loyola-Chicago Ramblers

Record: 28-5 SU, 19-9-1 ATS, 12-17-1 O/U
Conference: Missouri Valley champs

Best win: They won 65-59 against Florida – a top contender to win the SEC tournament – in Gainesville.

Worst loss: Wisconsin-Milwaukee, a middle-of-the-pack MVC side, beat the Ramblers by 17 points in December.

What they do best: They don’t take bad shots and they run a balanced offense. Loyola-Chicago finished third in the country in field goal percentage (50.6) and it has five players averaging 10 or more points per game.

Weakness: The pace the Ramblers play will remind bettors of Virginia. They average just 66.9 possessions per game and aren’t comfortable playing a fast-break tempo. An effective pressing team like West Virginia wouldn’t suit Loyola-Chicago well.

Lipscomb Bison

Record: 23-9 SU, 4-2 ATS, 3-3 O/U
Conference: Atlantic Sun champs

Best win: They played preseason Atlantic Sun favorites three times with the last coming in the conference tournament final where they beat Florida Gulf Coast 108-96.

Worst loss: The Bison lost at home to New Jersey Tech at the beginning of February. That was the last game they lost.

What they do best: They find a way to get to the charity stripe. Made free throws account for 22.3 percent of the Bison’s points (28th highest in the country) and they draw the sixth most fouls per game at 21.6.

Weakness: This is Lipscomb’s first appearance in the Big Dance in the school history. Will nerves be a factor? They played well in their conference but Texas and Alabama destroyed them during non-conference play.

Iona Gaels

Record: 20-13 SU, 15-14 ATS, 16-12 O/U
Conference: MAAC champs

Best win: They beat conference regular season champion Rider by 27 points back in January.

Worst loss: The Gaels lost by 22 points at home to a Monmouth-NJ team that finished the season with just 11 wins.

What they do best: Shoot from deep. Iona averages 9.7 made threes per game and three of its main rotation players shoot 38.5 percent or better from beyond the arc.

Weakness: Don’t expect the Gaels to get many second chance points. They rank 303rd in the nation in offensive rebounding rate. They don’t want to play a team that defends the perimeter well and closes out hard on 3-point shooters. Kentucky and Virginia are two teams that could cause big problems for Iona.

NC-Greensboro Spartans

Record: 27-7 SU, 17-9-1 ATS, 11-16-1 O/U
Conference: Southern champs

Best win: The Spartans won outright as 8.5-point underdogs at NC State back in December.

Worst loss: They lost to East Tennessee State despite being listed as 8.5-point road chalk.

What they do best: Control the paint. The UNCG is tops in the Southern conference in offensive rebounding, rebounding margin and blocks per game.

Weakness: Their offense was middle in the pack in the conference and the Spartans don’t draw many fouls. They rank 331st in the nation in free throw attempts per game (15.5).

Wright State Raiders

Record: 25-9 SU, 18-13-1 ATS, 12-20-1 O/U
Conference: Horizon champs

Best win: The Raiders took down Georgia Tech on the road as 8.5-point underdogs.

Worst loss: They lost by 19 points at home against eventual Ohio Valley champion Murray State back in November.

What they do best: This is another team that hangs its hat on defense. The Raiders led the Horizon league in most key defensive statistics but the thing they do best is cause turnovers. Their opponents turned the ball over 20.7 percent per offensive possession which is the 32nd highest rate in all of college hoops.

Weakness: There’s not much flash to the Raiders’ offense and those turnovers they create gives them needed extra offensive possessions. They don’t want to face a team with multiple, strong ball handlers.

Charleston Cougars

Record: 26-7 SU, 15-14-1 ATS, 17-13-1 O/U
Conference: Colonial Athletic champs

Best win: The Cougars won outright as 3.5-point road underdogs against Northeastern at the beginning of February.

Worst loss: Cal Poly, the third worst team from the Big West, won just nine games this season. One of those came courtesy of Charleston.

What they do best: Execute down the stretch. The Cougars own the 18th best, second-half scoring margin at +5.2.

Weakness: They don’t own the boards as well as you’d hope particularly against weak competition in the CAA conference. They grabbed just 72.3 percent of their defensive rebounds and averaged only 8.4 offensive boards per game.

LIU Brooklyn Blackbirds

Record: 18-16 SU, 3-4 ATS, 2-4 O/U
Conference: Northeast champs

Best win: They beat conference regular season champ Wagner in the tournament final 71-61 as 9.5-point road underdogs.

Worst loss: Take your pick. The Blackbirds won their conference despite losing 16 of their 34 games.

What they do best: Defend the 3-point line. Their opponents shot a conference-low 32.5 percent from deep.

Weakness: LIU Brooklyn will likely be one of the smallest teams in the field. Two of its main contributors stand less than six feet tall and the lone big man in the rotation (Zach Coleman) only plays 22 minutes per game.

South Dakota State Jackrabbits

Conference: Summit League champs
Record: 28-6 SU, 19-9 ATS, 15-13 O/U

Best win: The Jackrabbits hopped past Iowa as 7.5-point underdogs on a neutral court.

Worst loss: They lost to Missouri State, a middle of the road team in the Missouri Valley conference, by 20 points.

What they do best: Shoot from deep. South Dakota State is ninth in the country in made 3’s per game (10.4), and hit 40.3 percent of its shots from beyond the arc during conference play.

Weakness: No team averaged more fouls per game (19.3 in conference games) in the Summit League than South Dakota State. A team that draws a lot of fouls and shoots a high percentage at the line – like Xavier – would be a tough draw for the Jackrabbits.
__________________

Don't let bad NCAA tournament betting trends drive you mad this March
Jason Logan

Trends are as much a part of March Madness as a stack of blank brackets and that CBS college basketball theme song. You know the one: Da-da, Da-da, Da, Da-dum, Da-da, Dum!

Wrangling NCAA tournament trends is more difficult than any other major sport, mainly because player turnover in college hoops is pretty significant, especially in power conferences. The year-to-year makeup and talent level of programs fluctuate more than stock prices following a Trump tweet, and sports bettors should really watch it when it comes to putting any weight into these long-running stats.

Oh, you’ll hear some real doozies as it pertains to particular conferences and their ATS success in the national tournament over the last 20 years or betting trends tied to specific seedings (especially useless since they’ve changed the way they seed teams and added play-in games). And we are among the guilty purveyors of such hollow facts, as a lot of these trends – while completely f-ing worthless - are fun topics to discuss and weigh against matchups that qualify for debate.

I’ve always viewed historical trends as a slight nudge in direction (not saying it’s the right direction), like a trail of bread crumbs or moss growing on the north side of a tree. They’re a first step in the process and some are worthy of deeper exploration. But trends are very much just a single cog in the handicapping machine.

Things like recent form and current trends based on this season’s output should hold importance over the fact that No. 11 seeds set between +6 and +9.5 are covering at a 61 percent clip since 1998 (they’re not by the way. I just made up a ridiculous trend as an example. For God’s sake, don’t place a bet based on that).

How books treat trends

Perhaps the best way to measure the validity of historic NCAA tournament betting trends is to ask the guys who set the odds on each and every game: the Bookmakers. And what you’ll get back from the bookies when it comes to their use of historic trends when setting their spreads and totals is an echoing “Nahhhhhhhhh”.

“Trends are generally ignored by oddsmakers. Historical trends with large samplings may carry some weight, but still it would be very minimal,” says Scott Cooley, an odds consultant for online book BetDSI. “In all, trends are something the public loves to point to, but they have almost no bearing on how oddsmakers proceed with their side of the business.”

In fact, some sportsbooks pointed to historical trends as their biggest weapon against the betting public. And it makes sense.

College basketball is a sharp market all the way through non-conference, conference, and Championship Week play, with the action about a 70/30 split in terms of wiseguys to public bets. Then Selection Sunday happens and suddenly everyone and their dog is a damn NCAA expert and talking about Loyola Chicago as a sleeper team they’ve been watching all season. I’m calling bullshit.

That same guy clucking away about RPI is advancing a team in his bracket or placing a wager solely based on some whack-ass trend he saw on Twitter about SEC schools struggling when giving double digits in the Round of 32 (again, just a made-up trend). And it’s not just game-by-game betting, it also lures unsuspecting bettors into the NCAA futures waters as well.

“One of the most beneficial trends to the books is that myth that any team can win March Madness,” says Matthew Holt, COO at CG Analytics which provides odds to multiple books in Las Vegas. “This myth normally creates a massive hold for the books in the futures market for college hoops. In fact, the college basketball futures market is the most lucrative to the books.”

A long-time oddsmaking contact always reminds me that lines are set to the public’s perception, and if the bettors are factoring in historic trends into their capping, the books will as well. As one Bookmaker pointed out, a trend like a No. 1 seed never losing to a No. 16 may prompt a few extra cents on the moneyline for the top-seeded team knowing plenty of public players will tie those lofty moneylines to other wagers just to get a bit more bang for their buck.

Not all trends are bad

OK, we’ve said some terrible things about historic NCAA trends, many of which we can’t take back. That doesn’t mean ALL HISTORIC TRENDS should be thrown in the trash and/or sorted for recycling.

Leave it to long-time handicapper and gatekeeper of one of the biggest betting databases in the business, Marc Lawrence, to school me on the value of historic trends using this famous Winston Churchill quote, “Those who fail to learn from history are doomed to repeat it.”

Who am I to argue with the Prime Minister? But I’m pretty sure he didn’t have a bunch of dudes yelling “What the hell kind of shot was that?!” at a TV in mind when he said that.

Lawrence says by relying on past patterns we can better anticipate expectancy and by applying them to current form, we become better, well-rounded handicappers. He specifically points to trends as they pertain to head coaches, stating “Their personalities and traits are reflective on a team’s measure of success on the court.”

And it makes sense. Players come and go in the college ranks, but head coaches remain the same, as do their game plans, offensive playbook, and defensive philosophies. They recruit players that will fit their system, so those results are more stable and reliable than other historic NCAA trends.

“The coaches have a little more time to get their team ready for this first game than most games in the season, and the ones who have proven successful at this stage should be trusted,” says Covers Experts’ Brandon Shively. “New coaches are a wild card and I try to pass on them.”

Another trend used by not only handicappers but also showing up on the radar of Bookmakers is a team’s defensive efficiency ranking. OK, OK. That’s not so much of a trend as it is a stat, but when you apply it to past Final Four teams, there’s an absolute trend bleeding through the bracket.

Looking back at the past six NCAA tournaments (2012 to 2017), no Final Four team has ranked outside of the Top 40 in defensive efficiency (points allowed per 100 possessions). Twelve of those 24 national semifinal programs have placed inside the Top 10 in that stat column (including seven in the Top 3) and the average defensive efficiency rating for Final Four teams is 13.6 since 2012 - a year in which the four semifinalists ranked No. 1, No. 3, No. 4, and No. 7 in that category.

“Few saw South Carolina's Final Four run coming last year. However, the Gamecocks ranked No. 3 in the country in defensive efficiency going into the tourney,” says Covers Experts Brian Power. “Gonzaga was No. 1 and, of course, made it all the way to the final. For the record, this year's top teams in defensive efficiency are Virginia, Cincinnati, Texas Tech and Tennessee. Make note of this.”

That means whether you’re filling out your bracket, taking a flyer on the futures, or betting game-to-game, you should really take a hard look at teams ranked Nos. 1-14 in defensive efficiency. It’s something oddsmakers admittedly look at when setting their outright odds for the Big Dance.

“Historic offensive and defensive efficiency data of past champions and Final Four teams are used to set the futures odds on the NCAA tournament,” says Greg R., a lines manager for online book GTBets. “It also helps if they play at a fast tempo.”

Mixing offensive pace into the NCAA sauce, along with defensive efficiency, you have a select number of qualifying teams this year: Duke, Michigan State and Gonzaga. Those power programs sit around +500, +600 and +2,500 respectively on the NCAA futures board.

Infamous 12 over 5

We couldn’t end this bad boy without mentioning the most notorious NCAA tournament trend of them all: No. 12 seed over a No. 5 seed.

Yes, this is a trend that shows up most times in March but is far from a given. Going back to 2012, all four No. 5 seeds have advanced past the Round of 64 just once in that span – in 2015 – and before that 2007 was the last time we saw this trend come up short. In that six-season span, No. 5 seeds are just 11-13 SU versus No. 12 seeds in the opening round.

When you throw a pointspread into this matchup, the No. 5 seeds have been a money pit, going just 8-16 ATS since 2012. They failed to cover in three of four matchups last March and were also 1-3 ATS in 2016. That said, the No. 5 seed is also 5-3 SU in those last two tournaments.

“I’m not a trends guy but from an observation stand point I’d say the No. 12 versus No. 5 matchup has been drawn out,” says Covers Experts Zack Cimini. “There was a time that the No. 12 seed teams warranted upset potential. Nowadays, the No. 5 seed has become more dangerous. These teams usually had their moments in-season and are rounding back into form.”

As a historical trend, I’m so weary of seed-based betting, but there’s no denying that the No. 12 over No. 5 trend has teeth - big nasty sand shark-looking ones – when you level the playing field with a spread.

Of course, as Mr. Lawrence proclaimed, trends like these allow bettors to “anticipate expectancy” and when measured against current form, you can pinpoint the value – or in this case the No. 5 least likely to cover the spread against the No. 12 seed.
__________________