College Basketball Betting News and Trends For Saturday, March 24, 2018

Saturday’s NCAA games
Loyola, Chi won its first three tourney games by total of 4 points; they’ve won their last 13 games- since Jan 4th, they’re 20-1. Ramblers are #142 experience team that plays pace #319- they make 39.9% of their 3’s (#15). Loyola is 3-1 vs top 100 teams, with loss at Boise State. Kansas State allowed only 53.3 ppg in winning its first three tourney games; Wildcats are #242 experience team that plays pace #307. K-State is 13-2 outside Big X (NC sked #324); their opponents shoot 32.6% on arc (#40). #11 or lower seeds are 4-3 vs spread in this round, 2-5 SU.

Michigan won its last 12 games; they made 14-24 on arc in rout of Texas A&M Thursday. Wolverines lost by 15 at North Carolina in their only ACC game this year; Michigan is 14-2 outside Big 14, albeit vs #300 NC sked. Florida State played 12 guys in first half Thursday; they’re very deep and very athletic. Seminoles are 14-1 outside ACC, with only loss by point to Oklahoma State (#330 NC sked). FSU won by 5 at Rutgers in their only Big 14 game this year. Over last 20 years, underdogs are 16-4 vs spread in West Region final.

Other tournaments
Liberty hasn’t played in 12 days; they’re #306 experience team that is 6-4 outside Big South- they also had four non-D-I wins. Flames are #306 experience team that plays pace #343- they lost Big South title game at buzzer at Radford, are 6-8 vs top 200 teams, with win at Wake Forest. Central Michigan scored 94-98 points in winning first two games of this tournament; they haven’t played in eight days. Chippewas are 10-2 outside MAC with three non-D-I wins, vs NC schedule #340. CMU won four of its last seven true road games.

Ramble On
And now’s the time, the time is now
To sing my song
I’m goin’ ‘round the world, I got to find my girl
On my way
I’ve been this way ten years to the day
I gotta ramble on
I gotta find the queen of all my dreams

-- Led Zeppelin

The great rock tune, “Ramble On,” from Led Zeppelin seems to apply to these Ramblers, who are seeking victory No. 32 and an invite to the 2018 Final Four in San Antonio when they take on Kansas State at Philips Arena in Atlanta on Saturday.

These are the most unlikely of participants in the South Region finals. Loyola-Chicago needed a buzzer beater to edge Miami and a go-ahead bucket with 3.6 seconds left to clip Tennessee in the first weekend. Then high-powered Nevada raced out to a double-digit lead early in the first half of Thursday’s region-semifinal showdown.

But Porter Moser’s team has yet to flinch. And at this point, why would anyone doubt this team, one that’s been a model of consistency all season?

I watched this squad go into Gainesville and put on a defensive clinic at the O-Dome on Dec. 6. The Ramblers led nearly the entire game in a 65-59 win at Florida as 16-point road underdogs.

But here’s the rub: The Gators were the only foe Loyola-Chicago faced that made the field coming into the Tournament. The Missouri Valley, a conference without Wichita State and Creighton any longer, clearly isn’t what it once was.

However, with wins over UF, UM, UT and now Nevada in its pocket, Loyola-Chicago need not fret about playing any “respect card” moving forward. This team can play and that’s been clear as day to all observers in its run to the Elite Eight for the first time since the school won the national championship in 1963.

Most books opened this game as a pick ‘em with a total of 126.5 points. As of Friday afternoon, most spots had Kansas St. (25-11 straight up, 16-17 against the spread) installed as a 1.5-point ‘chalk.’

KSU has an underdog story of its own, wearing that label in two of its three wins to get here. The other victory came over the ultimate ‘dog, the first No. 16 seed to beat a top seed in UMBC.

Bruce Weber’s squad started its run by ousting one that used to be its own. Marcus Foster began his career at KSU, leading the Wildcats in scoring (15.5 points per game) as a true freshman in 2014. However, the relationship between Foster and Weber soured to the point that Foster transferred to Creighton following his sophomore campaign.

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After sitting out the 2015-16 season via transfer rules, Foster shined for the Bluejays over the last two years. After averaging 18.2 PPG as a junior, Foster averaged 19.8 PPG this year while shooting at career-best clips from the field (46.1%), 3-point land (41.3%) and the free-throw line (74.4%).

Foster had scored at least 12 points in 31 of Creighton’s first 32 games. His lowest scoring output was nine points coming into the first-round matchup with his former team. Kansas State held Foster to a season-low five points on 2-of-11 field-goal attempts.

Creighton had scored at least 70 points in 29 of its first 32 games and had produced 68 or more in 31 of its first 32 outings. The Bluejays were ranked 12th in the country in scoring with an 83.5 PPG average.

Nevertheless, KSU captured a 69-59 win over Creighton as a 2.5-point underdog, holding it to a season-low scoring output. The 128 combined points fell ‘under’ the 144-point tally. With star center Dean Wade sidelined with a foot injury the first weekend, Barry Brown stepped up with 18 points, six rebounds, three assists, two steals and two blocked shots. Mike McGuirl drained 3-of-5 attempts form 3-point range in a 17-point effort. The Wildcats hit 3-balls at a 9-for-19 rate (47.4%) to help overcome woeful FT shooting (14-of-25, 56.0%).

Kansas State failed to cover the number in last Sunday’s 50-43 win over UMBC as a 10.5-point ‘chalk.’ Brown led the way again with 18 points to help his club overcome 1-of-12 shooting from downtown (8.3%). Makol Mawien added 11 points, six rebounds and a pair of blocked shots.

This sent Weber’s team to ‘Catlanta to face what was a virtually a road game against Kentucky in Thursday’s region semifinal. For decades, the UK fan base has been notorious for taking over the city of Atlanta for SEC Tournaments, which used to be played at the Georgia Dome nearly every year.

But Big Blue Nation was of no help to the ‘Cats on Thursday, nor was the abysmal FT shooting of freshman P.J. Washington, who had 18 points, 15 rebounds and three steals but went 8-of-20 at the charity stripe.

Kansas State won a 61-58 decision as a 5.5-point underdog, hooking up money-line supporters with a payout in the +210 range. The 119 combined points dropped ‘under’ the 136.5-point total.

Xavier Sneed was the catalyst, scoring 22 points to go with nine rebounds, two steals and one assist without a turnover. He wasn’t available at crunch time after fouling out, though. In fact, overtime would’ve been real scary for KSU with three players fouling out with time to spare in regulation.

But as it has throughout the Tournament to date, KSU got the stops when it needed them most. Brown added 13 points, three boards and three assists. Wade finally played but the foot injury slowed him down and limited him to only eight minutes of playing time. He had four points, one rebound and one steal.

Wade is listed as ‘questionable’ against the Ramblers. He averages 16.2 points, 6.1 rebounds, 2.7 assists, 1.5 steals and 0.8 blocked shots per game. Brown (16.0 PPG) averages team-highs in assists (3.3 APG) and steals (1.8 SPG), while Sneed averages 11.0 points and 5.1 RPG. Mawien (6.9 PPG, 3.4 RPG) is the team’s rim protector with 1.2 blocked shots per contest.

Loyola-Chicago (31-5 SU, 22-9 ATS) has tasted defeat just once since Jan. 5, winning 20 of its past 21 games with the lone defeat coming by a 69-67 count at Bradley on Jan. 31. Since then, the Ramblers have won 13 games in a row while producing a 10-3 spread record. If the line holds and leaves them as underdogs, they’ll feel perfectly comfortable in that role that’s resulted in a 6-1-1 spread record with six outright victories.

Moses’s team beat Miami 64-62 as a 1.5-point ‘dog thanks to Deonte Ingram’s 3-ball from well beyond the top of the key to beat the horn. Clayton Custer scored 14 points and handed out four helpers without committing a turnover. Ingram had 13 points and seven rebounds, while Aundre Jackson had 12 points. Cameron Krutwig chipped in 11 points and four boards on 4-of-6 FGAs.

Loyola-Chicago needed Custer’s go-ahead basket with 3.6 ticks left to nip third-seeded Tennessee by a 63-62 count as a five-point underdog in the Round of 32. The Ramblers had balanced scoring with seven players producing six points or more. Jackson had a game-high 16 points on 5-of-7 FGAs, while Custer tallied 10 points on 4-of-5 FGAs and 2-of-2 shooting from long distance.

In a Loyola-Chicago section at Philips Arena on Thursday, there was a sign reading, “Mission From God.” This was obviously referencing the Chicago-centric movie, “The Blues Brothers,” featuring star actors John Belushi and Dan Aykroyd. It also had to somewhat elude to one of this Tournament’s beloved characters, 98-year-old Sister Jean Dolores-Schmidt, the nun and team chaplain whose popularity continues to rise.

Sister Jean had Loyola making the Sweet 16 in her bracket, but she didn’t pick her school to advance further. Well, her pre-tourney prediction was off the mark as the Ramblers beat Nevada 68-68 thanks to Marques Townes’s 3-pointer from the right wing off a shot fake and a dribble just before the shot-clock buzzer to put his team up four with 6.1 seconds remaining.

Townes stole the show in the ATL, scoring 18 points on 6-of-10 FGAs. He had five assists, four rebounds and one steal while also hitting both of his attempts form downtown and all four of his FTs. Custer added 15 points, four assists, three rebounds and three steals, while Jackson also finished with 15 points.

Custer paces the Ramblers in scoring (13.4 PPG), assists (4.2 APG) and steals (1.5 SPG). All five starters average in double figures, with Ingram, Jackson and Townes averaging 11.2 PPG apiece. Krutwig (10.4 PPG) paces Loyola in rebounding (6.3 RPG) and FG percentage (60.0%).

The Ramblers are extremely efficient at both ends of the floor, ranking fifth in the nation in scoring defense (62.4 PPG) and third in field-goal percentage (50.7%). They are 19th in the country in 3-point accuracy (39.7%).

After cashing in their eighth straight game in Thursday’s win over UNR, the ‘under’ improved to 20-12 overall for the Ramblers.

The ‘under’ has been a winner in all three of K-State’s Tournament games and is now 21-11-1 overall.

TBS will have the telecast with the tip scheduled for 6:05 p.m. Eastern.
By Brian Edwards

When I was on the “Out of Bounds Show” with Qualk and Kelly on a 105.5 The Roar in Clemson on Wednesday afternoon, they asked me how I felt about Michigan, the team I picked to win it all. I said, “Michigan played terrible last weekend and yet still advanced. It got through the first weekend without playing well and still has a pulse. That’s a great thing and I expect them to play lights out moving forward.”

Of course, John Beilein’s team will need to play lights out three more times to cut the nets down in San Antonio. But if Thursday’s run-away-and-hide beatdown of Texas A&M was any indicator, Michigan’s chances to get to San Antonio and thrive are looking good.

The Aggies were fresh off dealing out a pimpslap of their own the previous Sunday, when they destroyed North Carolina 86-65 as seven-point underdogs in the Round of 32. But Billy Kennedy’s bunch was on the receiving end Thursday at Staples Center in Los Angeles, where the Wolverines rolled out to a 52-28 halftime lead and coasted to a 99-72 triumph.

Michigan (31-7 straight-up, 24-12-1 against the spread)easily covered the way-too-short 2.5-point number. The 171 combined points dropped ‘under’ the 136-point total.

Muhammad-Ali-Abdur-Rahkman led the way with 24 points, five rebounds, one steal and seven assists compared to just one turnover. Mo Wagner added 21 points, three boards and two steals while shooting making 8-of-12 FGAs, all three of his launches from downtown and both of his FTAs. Charles Matthews had 18 points and five boards, draining 8-of-11 FGAs. Zavier Simpson contributed 11 points, six steals, five assists and four rebounds. Duncan Robinson was also in double figures with 10 points, as he buried 2-of-3 launches from 3-point land.

Before blasting Texas A&M, Michigan had to overcome an early 10-0 deficit to Montana, the winner of the Big Sky’s regular-season title and Tournament championship. The Wolverines would shake that poor start off and lead by three at halftime. Then they outscored the Grizzlies 30-19 in the final 20 minutes to pull away for a 61-47 victory as 10-point favorites. The 108 combined points dipped ‘under’ the 134-point total.

Matthews stole the show with 20 points and 11 rebounds, while Abdur-Rahkman added 11 points, five boards, two assists and two steals.

Waiting for Beilein’s bunch in the Round of 32 was Houston, which closed last Saturday night as a 3.5-point underdog. Neither team would build a lead of more than six points in this back-and-forth affair. The Cougars seemed to be in control late in the final minute but Devin Davis, who had made his first eight free throws of the game, missed three of his last four. The final miss came with UH holding a two-point lead and gave Michigan one last chance.

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The Wolverines advanced the ball into the front court and passed to freshman Jordan Poole, who only had time to catch, elevate and shoot a deep 3-ball from the right wing. The buzzer sounded with the ball in mid-air just before it caught nothing but nylon. Final Score: Michigan 64, Houston 63.

Kelvin Sampson’s club took the cash however as 3.5-point underdogs. Abdur-Rahkman and Wagner shared team-best scoring honors with 12 points apiece. Matthews and Robinson chipped in with 11 points apiece.

Wagner paces the Wolverines in scoring (14.4 points per game), rebounding (6.9 RPG) and FG percentage (53.1%). Matthews is averaging 12.9 points and 5.5 RPG, but he’s a liability from the FT line (57.0%). Abdur-Rahkman (12.9 PPG, 3.9 RPG) has a remarkable 128/28 assist-to-turnover ratio and makes 38.5 percent of his 3-pointers. Simpson (7.4 PPG) is the team leader in assists (3.7 APG) and steals (1.3 SPG).

As of Friday afternoon, most books had Michigan listed as a 4.5-point ‘chalk’ with a total of 143.5. The Seminoles are +170 on the money line (risk $100 to win $170).

Michigan is ranked ninth in the nation in scoring defense, limiting foes to 63.3 PPG. The Wolverines are 10-6 ATS in 16 games as single-digit favorites.

FSU (23-11 SU, 18-13 ATS) was in a 1-7 ATS slump entering the Tournament, but it has taken the cash in all three of its Tourney victories. Leonard Hamilton’s team caught a break when Missouri’s second-leading scorer Jordan Barnett was suspended for its opener after being arrested on DUI charges.

Barnett might not have made any difference because FSU took control early and darted out to a 42-20 halftime lead. The Seminoles cruised to a 67-54 win as 1.5-point favorites. Trent Forrest scored eight points, grabbed six rebounds, had three steals, blocked two shots and dished out eight assists compared to only one turnover. Mfiondu Kabengele finished with 14 points, 12 rebounds and two blocked shots.

FSU took on top-seeded Xavier in Nashville last Sunday night and found itself trailing by 12 points midway through the second half. The Seminoles’ defense was dominant at crunch time, however, forcing six turnovers in the Musketeers’ final nine possessions. An 18-4 run to end the game lifted the ‘Noles to a 75-70 victory as 5.5-point underdogs.

Braian Angola scored 16 points to go with six rebounds, three assists, two steals and one blocked shot. Forrest added 13 points, five boards, four steals and three assists.

After playing late Sunday night in Music City, FSU had to travel back to Tallahassee. Then after spending less than 36 hours at home, the ‘Noles had to make the cross-country flight to L.A. to meet Gonzaga, which has played in Boise on Thursday and Saturday of the previous weekend.

These travel factors that seemed advantageous to Mark Few’s team didn’t matter. FSU took a comfortable lead early and had a counter for every run Gonzaga tried to make. Hamilton’s bunch won a 75-60 decision as a six-point underdog to advance to the program’s first Elite Eight appearance since it lost to Kentucky in 1993 with a Pat Kennedy team that featured players like Charlie Ward, Sam Cassell, Doug Edwards, Rodney Dobard and Bobby Sura.

Terance Mann led the way past the ‘Zags with 18 points and five rebounds. Angola and C.J. Walker contributed nine points apiece, but this win was mostly about defense. The Bulldogs made only 33.9 percent of their FGAs and just 5-of-20 (25.0%) launches from long distance.

FSU owns a 6-5 spread record with five outright victories in 11 games as an underdog this season.

Mann averages team-bests in scoring (12.9 PPG), rebounding (5.5 RPG) and FG percentage (56.5%). Phil Cofer averages 12.8 PPG and buries 37.9 percent of his 3-pointers.

The ‘under’ is 18-16-2 overall for Michigan, going 2-0 in its first two games of the Tournament.

The ‘over’ is 17-15 overall for FSU despite three straight ‘unders’ in this Tournament.

These schools met in the first round of the 2007 NCAA Tournament, with FSU winning 87-66 as a 7.5-point favorite. They haven’t squared off since Nov. 22 of 2013 when Michigan won 82-80 in overtime as a two-point ‘chalk.’ Nik Stauskas scored 26 points to help the Wolverines overcome a 10-point intermission deficit.

Tip-off at Staples Center in L.A. is scheduled for 8:45 p.m. Eastern on TBS.
By Brian Edwards

Loyola-Chicago Ramblers vs. Kansas State Wildcats Preview and Predictions 03-24-2018

23rd March 2018 by Gracenote
An unlikely trip to the Final Four wouldn't mark uncharted territory for Loyola Chicago or Kansas State, but neither team has advanced that far in more than five decades. The teams that busted up the NCAA Tournament's South Regional bracket - the ninth-seeded Wildcats and the 11th-seeded Ramblers - square off Saturday in Atlanta with a long-awaited return to the Final Four on the line.

Kansas State is in the Elite Eight for the first time since 2010, but the Wildcats lost the last six times they had a chance to advance to the Final Four. Their last trip came in 1964 - one year after Loyola claimed the national title in their only Final Four trip. The Ramblers were a power in the 1960s but hadn't been in the NCAA Tournament since 1985 before this year's Cinderella run in which the Ramblers have won three games by a total of four points, including a 69-68 win over No. 7 seed Nevada on Thursday. Kansas State, which overcame foul trouble to escape with a 61-58 win over No. 5 seed Kentucky on Thursday, will be the lowest-seeded team Loyola has faced thus far after beating the Nos. 6, 3, and 7 seeds.

TV: 6:09 p.m. ET, TBS

ABOUT LOYOLA CHICAGO (31-5): The Ramblers have won 13 straight - the longest streak in the nation - and 20 of their last 21. They closed out the win over Nevada by shooting 75 percent in the second half, as Marques Townes (11.2 points) and Aundre Jackson (11.2 points) made key 3-pointers down the stretch. Five players averaged double-digit scoring with Clayton Custer (13.4) - the hero of the Tennessee win - leading the way.

ABOUT KANSAS STATE (25-11): Perhaps the most remarkable aspect of the Wildcats' run through the tournament - which was aided by No. 16 seed Maryland-Baltimore County knocking off overall No. 1 seed Virginia - is the fact they've done it with very little contribution from leading scorer and rebounder Dean Wade (16.2 points, 6.2 rebounds). The 6-10 center missed the first two games with a foot injury and was limited to eight minutes against Kentucky. Point guard Barry Brown (16 points, 3.3 assists) and swingman Xavier Sneed (11 points, 5.1 rebounds) have stepped up to carry the load in his absence.

TIP-INS

1. Kansas State is 10-2 when making at least nine 3-pointers, including two wins in the NCAA Tournament.

2. The Ramblers are 22-0 when leading at halftime and 29-1 when scoring at least 60 points.

3. The Wildcats are 20-2 when leading at halftime and 24-2 when shooting for a higher percentage from the field than the opposition.

PREDICTION: Kansas State 67, Loyola Chicago 65

Florida State Seminoles vs. Michigan Wolverines Preview and Predictions 03-24-2018

23rd March 2018 by Gracenote
Third-seeded Michigan looks to stay on course for its second Final Four appearance in six years when it faces No. 9 seed Florida State in the West Regional Final on Saturday in Los Angeles. The Wolverines set a new NCAA Tournament single-game record as eight players made at least one 3-pointer in the impressive 99-72 win against seventh-seeded Texas A&M on Thursday to advance to the Elite 8 for the third time in their last five tournament appearances.

Michigan, which is coming off its most points scored in an NCAA Tournament game since 1992, has won 12 straight games, including nine in a row away from home, and can set a single-season program record with their 32nd victory at the Staples Center. Florida State overpowered No. 4 seed Gonzaga 75-60 to reach the Elite 8 for the first time since 1993. The Seminoles, who had one player finish in double figures against the Bulldogs, blocked nine shots while holding Gonzaga to 33.9 percent shooting from the floor en route to the upset and hope to put the defensive clamps on the hot-shooting Wolverines to reach their first Final Four in 46 years. "We're a team that operates with the philosophy that we have to win games by committee," Florida State coach Leonard Hamilton told reporters. "They're all able to contribute offensively and defensively because of that philosophy."

TV: 8:49 p.m. ET, TBS

ABOUT FLORIDA STATE (23-11): Terance Mann led the way with 18 points to go along with five rebounds despite being hampered by a groin injury while Braian Angola and C.J. Walker each added nine points in the win against Gonzaga. Trent Forrest provided a big spark off the bench with seven points, six rebounds and six assists while fellow reserve Mfiondu Kabengele was an intimidating force in the paint as he registered a game-high four blocks against the Bulldogs. "It feels great," Forrest told reporters. "We're a team that from the beginning of the season knew that we could make it as far as we wanted to."

ABOUT MICHIGAN (31-7): Muhammad-Ali Abdur-Rahkman scored 16 of his team-leading 24 points in the second half and dished out seven assists against Texas A&M after shooting a combined 7-of-26 from the floor in his previous two NCAA Tournament games. Moritz Wagner bounced back from two pedestrian performances as he tallied 14 of his 21 points in the first half to set the offensive tone as the Wolverines finished 14-of-24 from 3-point range against the Aggies. Charles Matthews continued his stellar play in the tournament by adding 18 points on 8-of-11 shooting while Zavier Simpson contributed 11 points, six steals and five assists.

TIP-INS

1. Michigan has won eight of its last 12 games by double digits.

2. Florida State has held three straight opponents to 70 points or fewer.

3. The winner plays ninth-seeded Kansas State or No. 11 seed Loyola-Chicago in the Final Four.

PREDICTION: Michigan 77, Florida State 69