Betting news, trends, odds and predictions for Saturday, March 31, 2018 from various handicappers and websites
NCAA tournament
Final Four games
Since 1987, Final Four teams seeded #7 or worse are 2-5-1 vs spread in national semifinals, and that counts a 2011 game between a #8 and #1-seed, so its really 1-4-1 vs spread. Loyola is on an unconscious roll, with three tourney wins by total of four points, before they whacked K-State in regional final. Ramblers are 21-1 since Jan 6; they’ won 14 games in a row. Loyola is #137 experience team that plays pace #315. Michigan is 15-3 outside Big 14; they’ve won 13 games in row- their last loss was Feb 6. Wolverines are #205 experience team that plays pace #326- they’re #3 team at protecting the ball.
Since 1987, when two #1-seeds play in the national semifinals, underdogs are 8-2 vs the spread. Last six years, underdogs are 7-5 vs spread in national semis. Villanova is 11-1 in its last dozen NCAA tourney games- they pounded Oklahoma by 44 in national semis in 2016. Wildcats are 17-0 outside Big East, beating West Virginia/Texas Tech of Big X in last two games. Villanova is #282 experience team that plays pace #160- they make 40% of their 3’s. Kansas won 12 of its last 13 games; they’re 15-2 outside Big X. Jayhawks are #154 experience team that plays pace #150. Kansas opponents shoot only 32.7% on the arc (#40).
Saturday Final Four Best Bets
After two incredibly intense and upset-filled weekends of action in the 2018 NCAA Tournament, we are down to the Final Four teams remaining and they aren't without surprises. Clearly the biggest surprise is having #11 Loyola-Chicago get this far and you've got to wonder if their Cinderella run will end against Michigan or not.
The other matchup pits a couple of blue bloods against one another in Villanova and Kansas and no matter who wins the other game, the winner of the Wildcats/Jayhawks matchup will go into the final as the favorite. So where should your money be going on Final Four Saturday?
Odds per - Intertops.eu
Best Bet #1: Loyola-Chicago/Michigan Under 129.5
This total has already seen plenty of upward momentum after opening up at 128 and I don't really understand why. Yes, we've seen the Wolverines light up the scoreboard to the tune of 99 points against Texas A&M, but outside of that game, Michigan hasn't scored more than 64 points in their other three tournament wins.
They are a team that likes to rely on their defense, slow the game down when they can and find success that way. If that's their strength, what do you think they'll be looking to rely on with a ticket to the National Championship game on the line?
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Loyola-Chicago won't have any issue with playing a slower game where the first to 65 wins, as they've scored in the 60's in three of their four tournament wins as well. They did shoot the lights out against Kansas State in the Elite Eight, but I don't expect a repeat performance in that regard against this Wolverines side.
Nerves haven't bothered the Ramblers on their run to the Final Four, but the stage is definitely the biggest here and if we do see some tentativeness pop out, it's just an added plus for this 'under' play.
But what seals this play for me is trying to visualize how each team expects to get the job done and win this game. For Michigan, it's all about not taking Loyola-Chicago lightly, relying on their defense to clog up everything and then maybe hit a three-pointer or two late to pull away.
A scoring fest isn't something Michigan wants to get involved with because Loyola-Chicago does have five different guys who averaged double figures this year. So keep this game in the 60's and Michigan will like their chances without question.
Loyola-Chicago has to believe that their best chance for success is keeping the game in a similar range as they'll be looking to chase the Wolverines off the three-point line in the same fashion that Florida State did in the Elite Eight.
Michigan couldn't get anything to drop that day and considering this 14-game winning streak to conclude the year for Loyola-Chicago has come with a 5-9 O/U record alongside it, playing tight defense is something they won't shy away from either.
So while I do believe Michigan finds a way to win this game SU and advance, I believe there is more margin for error with the total as opposed to the spread. This game could easily be a 65-60 type finish in favor of the Wolverines, and given their team struggles on the charity stripe all year (another plus for an 'under' play), I wouldn't want to be sweating out a make/miss for either team to cover the side. The magnitude of the stage and the styles of the two teams involved keep this game lower scoring.
Odds per - Intertops.eu
Best Bet #2: Kansas +5
For a tournament full of upsets, getting two #1 seeds to meet in the Final Four does feel a bit odd. And while Villanova has run over everyone in their path so far, and Kansas squeaked out a few games, I'm not sure Kansas is getting the respect they deserve on this spread.
Villanova has definitely looked like the team to beat this entire tournament, but outside of the first 30 minutes against West Virginia, have they really been that tested? The Wildcats beat up on an Alabama team that many questioned their entry into the tournament, struggled with West Virginia for 30 minutes before pulling away in the final 10, and used a dominant final 10 minutes in the first half to seal up the win against Texas Tech.
A Villanova opponent (who were already some of the questionable ones in the tournament) has yet to play a complete 40 minute game against them and everyone has spent the week singing the praises of this team as the upcoming National Champions? I don't buy it.
Kansas is that team that is capable of playing a complete 40 minutes against Villanova because the Jayhawks have been forced to this entire tournament to get this far. They've won each game since the first round by exactly four points and needed a comeback to force OT to beat Duke in the last one.
It pays to be tested multiple times in this tournament and still be alive (just ask Loyola-Chicago and Michigan about that) and the fruits of that labor for Kansas will show up in spades in this game.
The Jayhawks have the guard play to match Villanova for the full 40 minutes, and Villanova and their 86 points per game won't be able to run and hide from a Kansas team that scores 80+ themselves. Oh, and we can't forget about the fact that a few guys on this Kansas team like Devonte Graham and Sviatoslav Mykhailiuk haven't forgotten about losing to this Villanova team back in the 2016 tournament during the Elite Eight.
A few years later, I expect the Jayhawks to get their revenge and play for another championship in the Bill Self era, but taking all these points is the safer way to go.
Preview: Loyola Chicago vs. Michigan
Gracenote
Mar 30, 2018
Third-seeded Michigan hopes its historic season culminates in a title game appearance as it faces No. 11 seed Loyola Chicago in the national semifinal on Saturday in San Antonio. The Wolverines, who have won 13 consecutive games - including 10 straight away from home - held off ninth-seeded Florida State 58-54 in the Elite 8 to set a new program record for wins in a season with 32 and hope to reach the national championship game for the second time since 2013.
"I was watching that from my home in Germany and now I'm playing for him (John Beilein) in another Final Four," Michigan forward Moritz Wagner told reporters. "This is a dream come true, it really is, but we're not done yet." Loyola Chicago's miraculous run in the NCAA Tournament continued with a 78-62 win over No. 9 seed Kansas State to reach the Final Four for the first time since 1963. The Ramblers currently own the nation's longest winning streak at 14 games and hope their efficient offense can break down a tenacious Michigan defense, which has held opponents to 59 points per game during the tournament. "I'm not thinking about anything except Michigan and what we're going to do to score because their defense is one of top defenses in the country," Loyola Chicago coach Porter Moser told reporters. "Our focus has been on Michigan and not the other 11 seeds or whether they've gotten to the next game or not."
TV: 6:09 p.m. ET, TBS
ABOUT LOYOLA CHICAGO (32-5): Ben Richardson scored a career-high 23 points to go along with six rebounds as the Ramblers held Kansas State to 34.8 percent shooting from the field to become the fourth No. 11 seed in NCAA history to advance to the Final Four. Junior guard Clayton Custer, who is the reigning Missouri Valley Conference Player of the Year, earned an honorable mention on the Associated Press All-America Team after averaging 13.2 points and 4.2 assists heading into Saturday's game. Loyola Chicago has dropped two of its three all-time meetings with Michigan, including an 84-80 setback in the 1964 NCAA Tournament.
ABOUT MICHIGAN (32-7): Charles Matthews was named the Most Outstanding Player of the West Region after averaging 16.5 points and 7.3 rebounds in four games, including 17 points and eight boards in the win against Florida State. Wagner, who earned all-tournament team in the West Region honors, added 12 points, six rebounds and two steals despite going 0-for-7 from 3-point range against the Seminoles. Muhammad-Ali Abdur-Rahkman, who tallied nine points against Florida State, joined Wagner and Matthews on the all-regional team after averaging 14 points and 4.3 rebounds over four games.
TIP-INS
1. Michigan is 6-1 all-time in national semifinal games.
2. Loyola Chicago is 9-0 on neutral floors this season.
3. The winner will play top-seeded Villanova or Kansas on Monday.
PREDICTION: Michigan 71, Loyola Chicago 65
Preview: Villanova vs. Kansas
Gracenote
Mar 30, 2018
The NCAA Tournament has been as wild as ever, but there is some stability in San Antonio, as No. 1 seeds Villanova and Kansas square off Saturday in an intriguing Final Four matchup. The teams each have one of the five Wooden Award finalists at point guard, with Villanova's Jalen Brunson and Kansas' Devonte' Graham leading their respective teams into this star-studded clash.
Brunson has guided the Wildcats into the Final Four for the second time in three seasons despite scoring 16 points or fewer in three of the team's first four games in this event and not racking up more than four assists in any NCAA Tournament contest. “The outside thinks about this one-on-one matchup between me and Devonte',” Brunson told reporters. “I just really focus on Villanova versus Kansas.” Graham, a senior whose team had lost in the Elite Eight each of the previous two years, has yet to shoot above 40 percent in any of the four tournament games, although fortunately Malik Newman has stepped up to shoulder the scoring load. Newman scored all 13 of the Jayhawks' points in overtime against Duke in the Elite Eight, finishing with a career-high 32 to help Kansas reach the Final Four for the second time since winning the 2008 title.
TV: 8:49 p.m. ET, TBS
ABOUT VILLANOVA (34-4): The Wildcats have won their four tournament games by 26, 23, 12 and 12 points, but the Elite Eight win over Texas Tech followed a different formula than the first three games. Villanova shot only 33.3 percent against the Red Raiders and finished with 71 points - well below the team's country-leading average of 86.6 points - and they also shot just 4-of-24 from behind the 3-point line - highly uncharacteristic for a team that shoots 40 percent from long range overall. Mikal Bridges missed all five of his 3-point attempts, ending his streak of 11 straight games with at least three 3s, including 10 contests in which he made at least 40 percent of his shots from beyond the arc.
ABOUT KANSAS (31-7): The Jayhawks have five double-digit scorers on the season - including Graham, who is part of a four-guard attack, and big man Udoka Azubuike, who is rounding into form after missing the Big 12 Tournament with a knee injury. Newman has made 13 3-pointers in the last three games, averaging nearly 26 points per game in that stretch, and Lagerald Vick has been consistent with either 13 or 14 points in all four games of the tournament. Sviatoslav Mykhailiuk notched 11 points, 10 rebounds and five assists against Duke, but the Jayhawks' fate likely will come down to Graham, who had a game-high 17 points two years ago when Kansas was upended by Villanova in the Elite Eight.
TIP-INS
1. Villanova is one win away from tying the school record of 35 set by the 2016 national championship team.
2. Azubuike is shooting 77.2 percent from the field this season - by far the best in the nation.
3. The winner of this game will return to the court for Monday's championship game against either Michigan or Loyola-Chicago.
PREDICTION: Villanova 79, Kansas 73