Betting news, trends, odds and predictions for Sunday, March 25, 2018 from various handicappers and websites
NCAA tournament
Sunday’s NCAA games
Villanova won its last eight games; they played four starters 31:00+ in Friday’s win over West Virginia. Wildcats are 16-0 outside Big East this season; they won first three NCAA games by 26-23-12 points, making 44-92 (47.8%) behind the arc. Texas Tech won five of its last six games; they’re 15-1 outside Big X, losing by 10 to Seton Hall in Brooklyn, their only Big East game this season. Only one Red Raider played more than 27:00 in Friday’s win over Purdue. Over last 8+ years, underdogs are 21-12-1 vs spread in regional final games, 8-5 the last 13 times they were getting 6+ points.
Bill Self is only 2-5 in regional finals at Kansas; #1-seeds who are underdogs in regional finals are 2-7 SU, 3-6 vs spread. Kansas beat Duke 77-75 in NYC last season; Graham played whole 40:00 for Jayhawks, but Duke had a whole different team then. Jayhawks are 14-2 outside Big X this season (#71 NC sked); they played four starters 35:00+ when they held on to beat Clemson Friday- they led by 20 with 11:40 left, won by 4. Duke won its first three tourney games by 22-25-4 points; they played three starters 39:00+ in snails-pace 61-possessions win vs Syracuse Friday. Blue Devils are 15-1 outside the ACC this year- they lost to St John’s.
Texas Tech Red Raiders vs. Villanova Wildcats Preview and Predictions 03-25-2018
24th March 2018 by Gracenote
Villanova appears determined to shoot its way to the Final Four, while Texas Tech is employing an alternative strategy. The top-seeded Wildcats can secure their second Final Four berth in three seasons Sunday when they take on the third-seeded Red Raiders in the East Regional final in Boston.
The Wildcats shot 13-of-24 from 3-point range in Friday's 12-point win over West Virginia, improving the team to 47.8 percent from the arc in their three tournament wins. "The deeper you go, the better the teams are going to be," star guard Jalen Brunson said. "For us, most importantly, nothing changes no matter who we play, where we play, what time we play. We play every game like it's our last." While the Wildcats have made 44 3-pointers through three tournament games, the Red Raiders only have made 15 and are shooting just 31.3 percent from long range in this event, but will that percentage rate be enough against Villanova? "They've been the No. 1 team the whole season and are great all-around," Texas Tech guard Keenan Evans said after Friday's 78-65 win over Purdue in the Sweet 16. "They have a great point guard and great bigs that can shoot the ball, so we will just have to get back in the film room and study up on them and get some rest."
TV: 2:20 p.m. ET, CBS
ABOUT TEXAS TECH (27-9): The Red Raiders rode a combined 45 points from Evans to first- and second-round wins, but the senior guard was limited to three field goals against Purdue, although he still scored 16 points to lead the team. Zach Smith added 14 points off the bench and is shooting 15-of-19 over the last four games, while freshman Zhaire Smith has registered double-digit points in all three Big Dance contests. Texas Tech, which is playing in the Elite Eight for the first time in school history, would love another big effort out of Justin Gray, who pitched in 12 points against Purdue, matching his second-highest total of the season.
ABOUT VILLANOVA (33-4): Brunson led the Wildcats with 27 points versus West Virginia, while freshman Omari Spellman registered 18 points and eight rebounds, not to mention three assists, three blocks and two steals. Brunson has made at least half his shots in six of the last seven games, while Mikal Bridges has done so in 11 of his last 12 games, and Bridges also carries a seven-game streak of draining at least 50 percent of his 3-pointers. Phil Booth, one of the stars from Villanova's national championship game victory two years ago, is just 2-of-11 from the field over the last two games and 5-of-20 over the last four contests.
TIP-INS
1. Villanova needs 10 3-pointers to tie the all-time Division I record for 3-pointers in a season. (VMI had 442 in 2006-07.)
2. Jarrett Culver leads Texas Tech with 54 3-pointers. By comparison, Booth has 52 3-pointers for Villanova and he is fifth on the Wildcats in made 3s.
3. The winner of this game will face the Midwest champion - either No. 1 seed Kansas or No. 2 seed Duke - in next week's Final Four.
PREDICTION: Villanova 82, Texas Tech 77
Duke Blue Devils vs. Kansas Jayhawks Preview and Predictions 03-25-2018
24th March 2018 by Gracenote
A wild NCAA Tournament gets back to normalcy on Sunday when two of college basketball's true blue bloods, Duke and Kansas, meet in the Midwest Regional final in Omaha, Neb. The No. 2 seeded Blue Devils and top-seeded Jayhawks have combined to win eight NCAA titles, including three of the last 10, and are two of the top four winningest programs in NCAA history.
After extending its record Big 12 regular-season title streak to 14, Kansas has advanced to the Elite Eight for the third straight year, jumping out to a 20-point lead early in the second half before holding off Clemson, 80-76, on Friday night. "I wanted to get back to this game so bad because I've been here the last two years, and hopefully we can get over the hump," said Big 12 Player of the Year Devonte' Graham referring to losses to eventual NCAA champion Villanova in 2016 (64-59) and Oregon (74-60 last year that denied the Jayhawks a 15th Final Four berth.) Duke will be trying to advance to the Final Four for the 17th time after grinding out a 69-65 victory over Syracuse and is back in the Elite Eight for the first time since 2015 when the Blue Devils went on to win their fifth NCAA championship. "I thought we were young for a lot of today," Duke coach Mike Krzyzewski said after the Blue Devils shot just 39.3 percent, including 5-of-26 from 3-point range, and were outrebounded, 37-33, by the Orange. "We were so good in Pittsburgh (in the first two rounds), and hopefully what we did under pressure today will help us on Sunday against a great Kansas team."
TV: 5:05 p.m. ET, CBS
ABOUT DUKE (29-7): The Blue Devils are young, starting four freshmen, but don't feel too sorry for old Krzyzewski, who picked up his 1,100th career coaching victory and 94th career tournament win against Syracuse, both NCAA records. Two of the freshmen, 6-11 forward Marvin Bagley III (21.2 ppg, 11.1 rpg), who garnered ACC Player of the Year and Rookie of the Year honors, and 6-10 Wendell Carter Jr. (13.6 ppg, 9.3 rpg) are both both projected as top 10 draft picks, while guards Gary Trent Jr. (14.4 ppg) and Trevon Duval (10.0 ppg, 5.6 apg) are also considered potential first rounders. Senior guard Grayson Allen had 15 points and eight assists to lead Duke in Friday night's win but was just 3-of-14 from 3-point range and is also rated as a potential first round pick.
ABOUT KANSAS (30-7): The Jayhawks have made it this far despite the loss of five-star recruit Billy Preston to eligibility issues and 7-foot center Udoka Azubuike playing with a left knee brace to help support a MCL injury suffered in a March 6 practice that forced him to sit out the Big 12 Tournament and play just three minutes in a 76-60 opening-round win over Pennsylvania. The explosive Azubuike has averaged 12 points, nine rebounds and two blocks in the last two games while connecting on 11-of-14 shots despite limping noticeably at times, and his presence inside will be a key factor in trying to defend the imposing Duke front line of Bagley and Carter. The Jayhawks have the edge in the backcourt, however, led by Graham (17.3 ppg, 7.4 apg), senior Svi Mykhailiuk (14.8 ppg), sophomore Malik Newman (13.5 ppg, 4.9 rpg) and junior Lagerald Vick (12.1 ppg, 4.9 rpg), all excellent 3-point shooters who will test Duke's 2-3 zone.
TIP-INS
1. Newman, a transfer from Mississippi State regarded by some scouting services as the No. 1 shooting guard prospect in the nation as a prep senior, has scored 20 or more points in four of the last six games and is 23-of-39 (59 percent) behind the arc during that span.
2. Kansas (2,247) is second in all-time Division I victories while Duke is fourth (2,144).
3. Duke leads the series with Kansas, 7-4, but the Jayhawks have won three of the last four meetings. The Blue Devils defeated the Jayhawks, 72-65, in Indianapolis in 1991 to claim their first national championship.
PREDICTION: Kansas 73, Duke 69
ATS Trends
Texas Tech
Red Raiders are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS win.
Red Raiders are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 non-conference games.
Red Raiders are 17-35-1 ATS in their last 53 neutral site games.
Red Raiders are 2-5-1 ATS in their last 8 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.
Red Raiders are 2-7-1 ATS in their last 10 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record.
Red Raiders are 2-7-1 ATS in their last 10 games overall.
Red Raiders are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 vs. Big East.
Villanova
Wildcats are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games overall.
Wildcats are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 NCAA Tournament games.
Wildcats are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.
Wildcats are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS win.
Wildcats are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 vs. Big 12.
Wildcats are 22-8 ATS in their last 30 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record.
Wildcats are 21-8 ATS in their last 29 games following a straight up win.
Wildcats are 20-8 ATS in their last 28 neutral site games.
Wildcats are 51-21-1 ATS in their last 73 non-conference games.
Wildcats are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 Sunday games.
OU Trends
Texas Tech
Under is 5-1 in Red Raiders last 6 vs. Big East.
Over is 7-2 in Red Raiders last 9 overall.
Over is 5-2 in Red Raiders last 7 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.
Under is 12-5 in Red Raiders last 17 neutral site games.
Villanova
Over is 12-3 in Wildcats last 15 games following a straight up win.
Over is 6-2 in Wildcats last 8 non-conference games.
Over is 9-3 in Wildcats last 12 games following a ATS win.
Over is 6-2 in Wildcats last 8 neutral site games.
Over is 19-7 in Wildcats last 26 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.
Under is 8-3 in Wildcats last 11 vs. Big 12.
Over is 21-8 in Wildcats last 29 overall.
Over is 5-2 in Wildcats last 7 NCAA Tournament games.
Head to Head
No trends available.
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ATS Trends
Duke
Blue Devils are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games following a ATS loss.
Blue Devils are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 Sunday games.
Blue Devils are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 non-conference games.
Blue Devils are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games overall.
Blue Devils are 11-4 ATS in their last 15 neutral site games.
Blue Devils are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.
Blue Devils are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record.
Blue Devils are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 vs. Big 12.
Blue Devils are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 NCAA Tournament games.
Kansas
Jayhawks are 8-2-1 ATS in their last 11 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.
Jayhawks are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 vs. Atlantic Coast.
OU Trends
Duke
Over is 12-2 in Blue Devils last 14 non-conference games.
Over is 8-2 in Blue Devils last 10 neutral site games.
Under is 9-3 in Blue Devils last 12 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.
Under is 8-3 in Blue Devils last 11 overall.
Under is 5-2 in Blue Devils last 7 games following a ATS loss.
Over is 7-3 in Blue Devils last 10 vs. Big 12.
Under is 9-4 in Blue Devils last 13 games following a straight up win.
Kansas
Over is 4-0 in Jayhawks last 4 Sunday games.
Over is 6-1 in Jayhawks last 7 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.
Over is 4-1-1 in Jayhawks last 6 overall.
Over is 4-1 in Jayhawks last 5 games following a straight up win.
Over is 4-1-1 in Jayhawks last 6 neutral site games.
Under is 4-1 in Jayhawks last 5 vs. a team with a winning straight up record.
Over is 5-2 in Jayhawks last 7 NCAA Tournament games.
Head to Head
Under is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings.
Blue Devils are 1-4 ATS in the last 5 meetings.
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Game played at TD Garden from Boston, Massachusetts
East Regional - No. 1 Villanova vs. No. 3 Texas Tech (CBS, 2:20 p.m. ET)
Opening Odds: Wildcats -6 ½, Total 144 ½
Tournament favorite Villanova had a very tough battle with West Virginia Friday night as the Mountaineers led early in the second half but a six-point deficit turned into a seven-point lead in a span of about four minutes to completely flip the game around. The Wildcats overcame rebounding and turnover disadvantages to win by 12 with great shooting numbers hitting 23 of 27 free throws for a big edge at the line and hitting 54 percent from 3-point range, an outrageous mark even by Villanova standards.
Villanova was the only Big East team to advance out of the opening weekend of the tournament and Gonzaga was the only Sweet 16 team that the Wildcats beat in the regular season as some scrutiny can be placed on the schedule of the Wildcats. If they can outlast another Big XII team Sunday they will be back in the Final Four for the second time in three years following the 2016 Tournament championship.
This line might be slightly inflated with a higher price than Villanova faced than versus West Virginia with Texas Tech finishing ahead of the Mountaineers in the Big XII standings. The Red Raiders haven’t posted dominant scoring numbers like Villanova and they are in the Elite 8 for the first time in program history led by a defense that ranks third nationally in defensive efficiency.
Texas Tech trailed early in the first two tournament games but after a slow start Friday night the Red Raiders pulled away from Purdue led by a great defensive showing. Unlike West Virginia, Texas Tech has strong numbers defending the 3-point shot which will be critical in this matchup. In the win over Purdue the Boilermakers made just seven 3-point shots and Texas Tech only sent Purdue to the line six times while forcing 17 turnovers against a team that like Villanova possessed a very low turnover rate.
Villanova had 16 turnovers against West Virginia, an incongruent number with the season rate for the Wildcats who have one of the lowest turnover rates in the nation. Texas Tech has good length and athleticism at every spot on the court to fit Chris Beard’s defensive scheme and the Red Raiders will need to play great defense to stay in this game as they won’t win a shooting contest with Villanova.
Texas Tech has benefitted from playing the first two tournament games in Texas in a favorable venue while drawing Purdue without Isaac Haas who was injured in the Round of 64 as the path has featured some good fortune and Texas Tech still trailed at halftime against Stephen F. Austin and Florida. The non-conference schedule for Texas Tech doesn’t grade well overall but the Red Raiders won five times against Sweet 16 teams this season with the Big XII living up to its billing with strong tournament results.
Villanova will likely continue to get heavy support even with the elevated line as the Wildcats are 25-12 ATS on the season while scoring 80 or more points in every tournament game. In the past 11 games vs. top 80 caliber competition however Villanova has three losses and two overtime wins as a lot of the dominance in the statistics was produced early in the season with a 22-1 start.
Battling some late season injuries Texas Tech entered the NCAA Tournament losing five of the final seven games as this tournament run wasn’t expected but it is worth noting that three of those losses came by three or fewer points as this isn’t going to be an easy team to pull away from. Texas Tech has the defensive profile to give Villanova problems but the nation’s top offense has certainly proven capable of shooting its way out of trouble in any matchup.
Game played at CenturyLink Center from Omaha, Nebraska
Midwest Regional - No. 1 Kansas vs. No. 2 Duke (CBS, 5:05 p.m. ET)
Opening Odds: Blue Devils -3 ½, Total 155 ½
In a tournament filled with upsets the Midwest Region has the top two seeds remaining for a heavyweight clash of blue blood programs Sunday to decide the final team into the Final Four. Duke and Kansas have played three times in the last decade in November but haven’t met in the tournament since 2003 with Kansas winning 69-65 in the Sweet 16 in the final season for Roy Williams with the Jayhawks.
Kansas hasn’t looked like an elite national contender this season, stunningly losing three times in Lawrence in what has generally been one of the toughest home courts in the nation. The Jayhawks were only 8-4 in Big XII play in November but they again rallied to win the Big XII title, also delivering the tournament title despite playing some of those games without Udoka Azubuike.
The Jayhawks had a bit of a battle in the 1/16 matchup with Penn trailing early and only slipping past the favorite spread in the final minute of the game. Kansas has four-point wins in the past two contests ironically losing ATS on backdoor covers including a comeback effort from Clemson Friday after Kansas led by 20 in the second half.
The season resume didn’t feature a great deal of notable wins on the non-conference schedule other than beating Kentucky but the Big XII has proven itself with four Sweet 16 teams and three Elite 8 squads, looking like the strongest conference in the nation overall. This year’s team actually has the weakest defensive efficiency ranking in 15 seasons under Bill Self but this is a great offensive team that has shot nearly 41 percent from 3-point range while featuring a very low turnover rate.
Duke turned in big early season wins over Michigan State and Florida but after starting 11-0 the Blue Devils had several surprising losses, falling to Boston College, NC State, and St. John’s. Duke still went 13-5 in ACC play but they drew one of the lighter schedules in the conference and they only won once in the ACC Tournament.
Handed a tough bracket draw with unusual travel for the program plus the expected Sweet 16 matchup with Michigan State the Blue Devils didn’t feel like a great threat to make it to San Antonio. Duke posted 176 points in the first two tournament wins however and they held off Syracuse in an expected grind on Friday night. Facing a #11 seed that likely didn’t even deserve to be in the tournament field in the Sweet 16 has meant a favorable path for Duke as this will certainly be the biggest test for a young Blue Devils squad.
Duke has improved its defense down the stretch with more zone than usual and now holding foes to just 62 points per game over the last 12 contests. Duke has unparalleled size of the remaining teams but lacks the depth and experience of the other contenders, issues that sometimes come into play in the NCAA Tournament setting depending how games get called.
Offensive rebounding is a great area of strength for Duke and they will need those second chance opportunities as Kansas has the stronger shooting profile in this matchup. Duke does have a great 3-point defense holding foes to just over 31 percent shooting from beyond the arc as Kansas will have a hard time maintaining the over 43 percent clip they have hit 3-point shots at so far in the tournament.
A popular Duke team is surprisingly 22-12 ATS this season and only one of 29 Duke wins this season came by fewer than points than the four-point margin Friday night against Syracuse. All seven Kansas losses this season came by five or more points while six of seven Duke losses came by five or fewer points.
Neither team shoots free throws particularly well as there could be some pressure-packed moments down the stretch in this contest in what could be a classic game between two storied programs and high profile coaches. The winner will be expected to draw Villanova in a heavyweight national semifinal that would be fit for a championship game.
By Joe Nelson