College Basketball Handicapping: Last Home Game situations
By Fairway Jay
Sportsmemo.com
As we near the conclusion of another winning and profitable college basketball season, I often isolate some solid Last Home Game situations that have proven profitable for many seasons. These are not just plays on home teams, but also against lesser or “towel tosser” teams playing on weaker home courts.
Many of these LHG’s bring a level of emotion and effort from both the players and fans as the seniors make their final appearance for the home faithful. Three seasons ago, Indiana lost its last nine regular season games and had just one senior, five freshman and six walk-ons. One of those freshmen was Verdell Jones lll who will play his final game at Assembly Hall as a senior on March 4. Indiana was a 14-point home underdog to top-10 Michigan State, but battled hard to the end to cash the ticket in a five-point loss.
Those kind of efforts and situations are prevalent throughout the final weeks of the season, and it gives you an idea of the emotion and meaning of these late season contests in front of their home fans. While some teams are pushing for conference titles, others are just trying to finish above .500 or prepare themselves for the upcoming conference tournaments. Other teams are playing out the string and know the conference tournament is their last shot to qualify for the NCAA Tournament. Thus, some of the remaining games will have far less meaning to teams on the downturn or struggling with cohesion, chemistry and potential coaching changes. Still, there is always a game or two in the final weeks that bring out the best in a team, be it a rivalry or revenge game or often the last home game; signaling the end of the college careers for the seniors in front of the home fans.
Over the next two weeks we’ll see the continuation of many of these Last Home Games. Many teams will fit proven profiles and strong situations for success. One situational profile I’ll provide to you is to watch for winning teams playing off back-to-back losses. If they are playing at home against an opponent with same season revenge, you have a solid situation to support the home team with plenty of focus, motivation, energy and effort expected.
So be sure to evaluate the schedules and situations over the last two weeks and watch for last home games and other solid situations that may provide additional motivation, energy and effort. If you read my recent blog on the troubles surrounding Illinois and watched its performances against Purdue and Nebraska last weekend, then you know that energy, effort cohesion and chemistry (or lacks thereof) are key factors beyond the stats and box scores.