College Basketball Handicapping: Strong late season situationals
By Fairway Jay
Sportsmemo.com
This is the time of the college basketball season when many of our long term positive profiles and strong situations develop. Second meets, qualified revenge situations, last home games and additional profiles and parameters produce profit year after year. Tonight we have another top-rated Big Drive play that fits one of our proven profiles and situations with additional subsets and parameters that guide us to our selection. When we combine some of these late season situations with positive statistical parameters in our match-up evaluation, we have a play worth full support.
As you look over a college card and dig deeper into the surrounding situations and match-up, here’s something to guide you for future winners. Keep in mind some of the information I discuss is proprietary, so I don’t give out all the details in regards to exact ATS results or perhaps a specific subset or situation in addition to our base premise and profile. After all, I do get paid for providing positive pointspread prognosis and winning information.
But here we go. At this time of the season, teams are playing second meets or opponents for the second time. Winning teams playing on their home court off back-to-back losses are often discussed by the media, handicappers and others as struggling a bit. Two or more consecutive losses and questions arise about the team and their current play. Yet winning teams often respond in these situations with strong performance on their home court. Case in point was Baylor on Monday. Off back-to-back losses to Kansas and Missouri, the Bears returned home to bury Iowa State by 15 points as an 8.5-point favorite. The Cyclones were playing well and on a 7-0 ATS run heading into the game. The line seemed high to many bettors despite a justified power rating of 9+ points when factoring home court. Yet Baylor responded as a winning and capable team on their strong home court (12-2) to pull away for the pointspread covering victory.
At this time of the season I go through the college card and look for winning teams playing at home. As I go through the entire card February 15, I see our situation and positive profile pop again in three games. And this time it’s an even stronger situation as our winning home teams are playing with same season revenge. So we have a winning team off back-to-back losses, playing at home, on a strong home court with single season revenge. A focused favorite at a short or mid-range and fair price is always worth consideration, and when you combine it with the motivational situation it becomes a play with a historical profile of positive results.
I don’t argue with my late season situational profiles that have produced profit season after season. I research the information and situations, dig deeper into stats, match-ups, injuries and other situations that impact outcomes, bet it and deliver it to my clients and sometimes the public for consideration. Not all of these situational plays make my card, and game selection management can be a struggle at times with so many games to analyze and consider. However having some proven, positive profiles and situations to evaluate this time of year allows us to produce more profit and winners; and that’s the name of the game.