College Basketball Keys to Winning Against the Spread
Robbie Gainous
College Basketball keys to Winning Against the Spread. This section covers the college basketball regular season.
POWER RATINGS – This tool should be used as an initial indicator for a decision, not the principle reason for siding on a game.
Play ON an underdog getting line value when comparing the pointspread to Power Ratings if the team is not in a “let-down” situation or its opponent in a “get-up” situation.
If the team has been fairly consistent with respect to its performances as compared to the Power Ratings, this will be a case of a team not getting the respect it deserves and being under-rated by the wagering public.
Play AGAINST a favorite seemingly getting line value as compared to the Power Ratings if the team is in a “let-down” situation or its opponent in a “get-up” situation.
If a favorite is not favored by as many points as it seems they should, it is likely due to situational analysis. In such games, the public is loading up on what they consider an “easy” bet, while the sharps are jumping on an underdog in an ideal situation or going against the favorite in a letdown spot, thus keeping the line down, as books try to balance the action.
FUNDAMENTAL HANDICAPPING – These matchup tools provide the biggest edges and provide the strongest plays when they expose one team’s strength going against an opponent’s weakness.
SITUATIONAL HANDICAPPING – These tools are very important, as the best team is not always playing up to its potential and sometimes the weaker team is in a more favorable position. Teams play at different levels from week to week. Just as the old stock market adage advises to “buy low and sell high”, playing against teams in down spots and on teams at their peak will result in profitable investments.
LETDOWN
Play AGAINST a team off a nationally televised blowout win.
As an old handicapper proverb states, “a team is never as good or as bad as its last game”. Blowouts do happen, and when they occur on a national stage, they can leave a lasting impression on viewers. The public regards the winning team as invincible and will think they are a “sure thing” the following week. The oddsmakers know this and adjust the pointspread accordingly, so there is no line value with this team.
Play AGAINST a off its peak performance of the season.
Whether a blowout win, upset, revenge victory, played the “spoiler”, or any win in which a team feels like they “just won the title”, they will be hard-pressed to match that emotion, effort, and intensity next time out and will be due for a fall.
Play AGAINST a team with a coach and/or players admitting that they suffered a disheartening loss and have to follow it up with another tough game.
GETUP
Play ON a team off a nationally televised blowout loss.
As an old handicapper proverb states, “a team is never as good or as bad as its last game”. Blowouts do happen, and when they occur on a national stage, they can leave a lasting impression on viewers. The public regards the losing team as woeful and will not want to put their money on them the following week. The oddsmakers know this and adjust the line accordingly, providing good value on the losing team.
Play ON a team with at least some pride off a horrible performance.
A team that has hit a new low with an awful showing will be determined to get rid of the bitter taste and bad press. When the players openly admit to being embarrassed by the result of their last effort, expect their best effort next time out.
Play ON a power team for several games after an embarrassing loss.
Many sports investors know that betting on a top-shelf team following a rare defeat or embarrassing whipping is often the right call; however, win or lose, many bettors will then drop the team like a hot potato afraid to tempt fate again. The best teams did not become the best by believing that one good win cancels out one bad loss. There is more spread value in riding power teams at least two and three games following a loss, and even more sometimes. Especially in college football, basketball and the NBA, top-shelf teams will usually take out their anger for several games.
REST
Play ON a team in the middle of a cluster of games that is playing well, even without much or any rest.
Many handicappers will automatically fade or at least pass on a team that is in a tough spot, schedule-wise. This overlooks the fact that the oddsmakers are usually one-step ahead. The line already takes into account such factors. Momentum and adrenalin are the best cures for exhausted bodies. We still take into account minutes played in recent games by the star players, depth, whether games went down to the wire on in overtime, but If a team is in a groove, a short vacation is the last thing they need. Being “in the zone” more than nullifies any supposed rest disadvantage.
Play AGAINST a well-rested team that just finished a string of good games.
There's a common notion that rest can only be good, but very often hot teams can lose their edge with three or more days off. Being road weary and playing poorly is a bad combo, but being well rested while playing well can be, too. Rest is best for teams that clearly need it. A team playing inadequately can make adjustments, but a break in the schedule can be counterproductive for teams in a groove.
INJURIES
Play ON the underdog when a superstar is injured and missing his first game, and possibly second game.
The pointspread will move to account for the absence of the key player. If a team is made an underdog due to the injury, they will have several factors in their favor. Generally, there is not as big of a drop in talent from the starter to the reserve as the public perceives. The back up will be very excited to get his chance to shine, especially if he has experienced “live bullets” before. Secondly, the rest of the team will be very focused, knowing they all have to play their best in order to make up for their fallen comrade’s absence. They may also be determined to prove that they are not a “one-man team”. Finally, their opponent will suffer an emotional letdown without the challenge of facing the superstar.
If a team is favored despite the star’s absence, they will not have the urgency to “pull together” as an underdog would in the same situation. Additionally, their opponent’s confidence will be bolstered, knowing they stand a much better chance of pulling off an upset without having to face the key player.
Play AGAINST a team playing without its superstar for an extended period.
The squad may have pulled off an upset win or 2 without him in the first game he missed; however, the longer the key player is out, the more it wears down the team, as they cannot sustain an above-average effort for long. When favored, this team will be especially vulnerable to suffering a letdown, as they will not have the added motivation of proving “the experts” wrong.
Play AGAINST a team with a star player returning to the lineup after missing an extended period.
The pointspread will likely move to account for the return of the key player, leaving little value on that team, especially if they are favored. If the team adjusted while he was out and developed some momentum, his return can easily disrupt team chemistry. Additionally, his teammates are likely to suffer a letdown, knowing they no longer have to make up for his absence.
Play ON a team that loses a key, yet disruptive, player to injury, especially if there's a solid backup to take his place.
Sometimes an injury can be a positive for a team, at least in the short term. If a player that has been bickering with the coach or causing problems in the locker room has to sit, it can be a case of "addition by subtraction". If there is a "team first" veteran to take his spot, he will likely have a positive, calming effect on the entire team.
Play AGAINST a team suffering from a cluster of injuries.
If a defense or offense is missing several starters all at once, the team can be very vulnerable to fatigue in addition to being unable to replace the absent talent. A team with a single unit that is missing several key starters and reserves, such as its starting frontcourt or its top two point guards, also figures to struggle.
REVENGE
Play ON a team looking to avenge a favored loss last year that ended their season or cost them a title.
If an upset loss cost a team, a national title, or tourney spot, redemption will be on the minds of the players.
Play ON a team looking to avenge a loss in a game they should have won, especially if it is a “bad beat”.
It may be the last game at the same site played against an opponent or it may be the last game played overall against an opponent. The public may look back at a previous meeting and see little more than the final. Players hate to lose through unusual circumstances, such as a Hail Mary shot at the buzzer or bad call by an official. If the score was misleading, line value should be on the side of the revenge-seeking team. Coaches comments made following the earlier game should reveal what the mentality of the teams will be.
Play ON a good team looking to avenge an embarrassing loss.
A proud squad that looked awful in a loss will be determined to show the opponent and the world that the previous meeting’s outcome was a fluke and that they are the better team. Meanwhile, their foe is likely to be a little over-confident due to the ease of the earlier victory.
Play ON a good team looking to avenge a loss in which their opponent rubbed their faces in the defeat with the outcome already decided.
A proud squad that had insult added to the injury of defeat will be counting the days until the rematch when they will unload a lot of pent-up anger against an unsuspecting foe.
Play AGAINST a favorite vs. an opponent that it has not beaten several times in a row.
Sports psychologist studies have revealed that when a team puts two losses, errors, mistakes, or any negative experiences back to back, then the anticipation turns into expecting a third loss. With each successive loss, the sub-conscious expectation for another loss will become even stronger. The more coaches and players deny a "jinx" or “curse”, the more likely they are likely feeling the weight of the losing streak and the pressure of being favored will not equal confidence. The worst mental attitude a team can have, especially a favorite, is lack of confidence.
Meanwhile, the exact opposite dynamics are happening with the underdog. They have all of the confidence in the world due to their recent, previous success against the team, and will be insulted by the public favoring their opponent, as reflected in the line.
Ultimately, this creates a scenario where the better team is getting points, is much more confident than its opponent, and is just as motivated, if not more so.
This completes our section on the College Basketball Regular season we will return later with Conference Tournament and March Madness keys to winning against the spread.