College Basketball Top 5: Worst Conference Bets
By Jason Logan
Covers.com
The conference calendar has started for almost every team in the land. Last week, we took a look at the best bets during conference play over the last four seasons (2007-08 – 2010-11). This time around, it’s a glance at the programs which have burned bettors the most during league play in that span:
Georgetown Hoyas (25-47 ATS in Big East play last four seasons)
The Hoyas have been good enough to garner a lot of chalk in recent seasons, but not good enough to cover it. The Hoyas have failed to meet oddsmakers expectations in 65 percent of their Big East contest the last four seasons, most notably going 4-14 ATS during the 2009-10 conference slate.
This season, not much is expected from the you Hoyas, which is why they could be the best bet in the Big East. Georgetown has already recorded ATS victories over Louisville, Kansas, Alabama and Memphis twice. Their only loss in those games was against KU.
Missouri State Bears (23-43-4 ATS in MVC last four seasons)
The Missouri Valley Conference is one of the toughest little leagues in the country. Every March, the MVC boasts at least one at-large bid into the NCAA Tournament. The Bears have been a bottom-half team in the conference, going 4-12 ATS in 2008-09 and 7-11 ATS in 2009-10.
Missouri State is projected to finish near the bottom of the MVC this season, but is off to a strong start in conference play. The Bears are 2-0 SU and ATS, including an upset over league-favorite Creighton as 10-point road underdogs. They host Illinois State Wednesday.
Minnesota Golden Gophers (28-43-1 ATS in Big Ten play last four seasons)
In Tubby Smith’s four years at Minnesota, the Golden Gophers have covered in just 41 percent of their Big Ten games. That came to a head last season, when Minny went just 5-12-1 ATS against conference opponents – not far off its actual Big Ten record of 6-12.
The Gophers have kept their heads above water with a 6-5-1 ATS mark despite major injuries to the frontcourt. Minnesota is 0-2 to start Big Ten play, but covered in the loss to Michigan on New Year’s Day. It hosts Iowa Wednesday.
Davidson Wildcats (31-44-1 ATS in Southern last four seasons)
The Wildcats’ magical March run in 2007-08 sucked all the betting value out of the little school that could. Davidson, which went 12-8 ATS inside the Southern Conference that year, has gone 19-36-1 since losing by two points to Kansas in the Elite Eight – covering in only 34 percent of its conference games.
Davidson is long removed from the days of Stephen Curry burying 30-footers to cover the spread. However, the Wildcats may still be getting the public treatment on name recognition alone. They’re just 4-6 ATS this season with a 1-1 ATS mark to start conference play.
Washington State Cougars (28-42-2 ATS in Pac-12 last four seasons)
Washington State is another school that had its betting value leached by past accomplishments. The Cougars were a live dog in the former Pac-10 back in 2006-07, going 13-5 SU during conference play. They posted a 10-8 ATS record, picking up those paydays in the first 14 conference games. Wazzu hasn’t been in the black since.
Washington State has failed to cover in 58 percent of its league contests over the past four seasons, with the worst total coming in 2009-10 when the Cougars posted a 5-13 ATS record. They went 8-9 ATS last year – their first without Tony Bennett on the sidelines – and are 1-1 SU and ATS in Pac-12 play this season.