College Basketball Wagering Weekend
By: Doug Upstone
For many of the smaller conferences, the regular season concludes this weekend, while the larger leagues are still fighting to determine who the regular season champions will be. This Saturday and Sunday, a large number of these confrontations are on tap in several conferences and college basketball bettors are going to have to bring their A-game to determine winners and spread beaters. Enjoy the fray.
Saturday, Feb. 27
Northeastern at George Mason 12:00E ESPN2
One of the most underrated leagues in college basketball is the Colonial Athletic Conference. Each season is highly competitive and the top teams have invariably pulled a few upsets over BCS-type conferences and the quality of play usually leads to good showings in the NCAA Tourney or the minor post-season events. On the final weekend of the regular season, Northeastern (18-11, 15-12-1 ATS) can still tie for conference crown with Old Dominion with a win and Monarchs loss, thanks to league leading defense that has permitted more than 64 points in CAA action just once. The Huskies are 7-5 and 8-3 ATS on the road this season.
George Mason (17-12, 10-15-1 ATS) sky-rocketed to the top off conference standings with 10-1 record, but a closer look revealed a 5-5-1 ATS mark, providing info the Patriots were not quite as potent as they appeared. February has been cruel to George Mason (2-5 SU and 1-6 ATS), as the freshmen stocked team has hit the wall. Don't be shocked if senior guard Cam Long has a big day in his last home game at the Patriot Center. Watch for oddsmakers number since Patriots are 3-0 ATS as home underdogs.
George Mason has won and covered previous four confrontations in Fairfax, VA and the home team is 8-1-1 ATS in these CAA contests
Kentucky at Tennessee 12:00E CBS
Nothing stirs the orange-clad Tennessee fans to see red, like the blue in Kentucky basketball uniform. The Hatfield's and McCoy's feud had nothing on these two universities, where genuine hatred exists between the neighboring states. Coach Bruce Pearl has coached up his team since the trials and tribulations of the new year occurred, however recently, the loss of Tyler Smith, injuries and slumps have seen them struggle. "You can't feel sorry for ourselves," senior guard J.P. Prince said. Pearl almost assuredly will be in the orange sports jacket and the Vols (20-7, 10-14 ATS) are 20-5 ATS as a home underdog or pick.
Though Kentucky (27-1, 15-11 ATS) plays its four freshmen extensively, John Wall and DeMarcus Cousins are arguably as talented as anyone playing their respective positions. The earlier South Carolina road loss may have been a blessing, since forward Patrick Patterson listened to the criticism and has raised his play to the level of his ability and his team has gone on to win eight straight (6-2 ATS). He was the difference-maker in recent overtime wins at Mississippi State and at Vanderbilt. The Wildcats are 6-1 and 5-2 ATS on the road this season and 7-2 ATS dating back to last season if the opponent has a winning home record.
Kentucky has taken seven of the last dozen in Knoxville, and the SU winner is 11-2 ATS wherever they have played in previous 13 outings.
Arizona State at California 3:00E FSN
These are likely to be the only two Pac-10 schools invited to the Big Dance and if either falters in their conference tournament early, even that becomes a question mark. This is Arizona State's third consecutive and final road game of the year and they hope next weekend's home finales will be meaningful for the Pac-10 title. The first order of business is knocking off Cal and the Sun Devils (20-8, 11-13 ATS) don't believe in trickery to upset opposing teams. Arizona State isn't going to "wow" anyone with personnel, instead they play defense and take care of the ball, which is why they are 8-1 ATS in road games when they commit 10 to 13 turnovers.
California (19-9, 15-12 ATS) was the preseason choice to win the Pac-10 and they have positioned themselves to do just that 11-5 record. Senior point guard Jerome Randle, with a strong finish might be conference Player of the Year and fellow senior Jamal Boykin has been playing his best basketball of the season. The Bears are a much better club when sophomore guard Jorge Gutierrez (out six games in January) is on the floor, because he adds ferocity and energy. Cal is 15-3 ATS at home facing a team with a winning record.
Both teams have five conferences defeats and California has a game in hand, having only Stanford remaining on the schedule. The Bears won in Tempe 78-70 as four-point underdogs previously and are 14-1 and 10-4 ATS at home, mauling opponents by 19.3 points per contest. Cal is 7-5 at the Haas Pavilion against ASU since '97, however have only covered the spread three times.
Kansas at Oklahoma State 4:00E CBS
The Jayhawks (27-1, 10-14-1 ATS) have been learning valuable lessons as the season has progressed. Being No. 1 most of the year has forced the Kansas players to expect everyone to be gunning for them. In games at Kansas State, at Colorado, at Texas A&M and even at home vs. Baylor, the Jayhawks had to fight to win, were a less mentally strong team would have lost. Coach Bill Self has his squad back playing for each other and nobody wants to let anyone down. The next adventure is in Stillwater and Kansas is 17-4 ATS against teams with 60%-80% win percentage.
The Cowboys (19-8, 12-8-1 ATS) internal mettle is being tested, facing their third consecutive ranked team in the Jayhawks, after beating Baylor and tumbling to Texas. Any chance for an upset lies in the hands of James Anderson. The junior guard can go from mild to habanero hot in two shots and teammates Keiton Page, Obi Muonelo and Matt Pilgrim end up benefiting as opponents become focused on cooling down Anderson. Oklahoma State has the worst assist-to-turnover ratio in the Big 12, which won't cut it against Kansas. Okie State is 15-5 ATS on own floor vs. teams outscoring opponents by four or more points a contest.
The Cowboys have split six tilts at home vs. Kansas with four covers and the UNDER is 5-0.
New Mexico at BYU 4:00E VERSUS
The Mountain West crown could be on the line in Provo, with New Mexico (26-3, 17-10-1 ATS) looking for the sweep of BYU. The Lobos have been dealing and have ample confidence, which is supported by 9-2 and 5-5-1 ATS road record. We're just real confident," senior forward Roman Martinez said. "We always respect our opponent, but I think we're playing confident now and more calm than we used to be." This will help New Mexico who is 12-3 and 10-4 ATS when playing with three or more days off
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This MWC matchup is doubly important for BYU (26-3, 16-10 ATS), since they try to even season series and still have road games remaining. Senior Jonathan Tavernari has had a relatively disappointing final season, nevertheless has started to find the range in last few weeks, proving why he is the school's 12th all-time leading scorer. Tavernari has maintained a positive outlook as being just the Cougars fourth leading scorer this season. "The reason this team is so good is we have so many options," Tavernari said. BYU is on 12-1 ATS mission in February contests.
With both clubs having two losses in the conference, the straight up winner is perfect 13-0 ATS since 2003.
Villanova at Syracuse 9:00E ESPN
While this won't necessarily determine the champion of the Big East, it will go a long way towards deciding it. This is the most anticipated regular season game of the year in the conference and Scottie Reynolds will lead a veteran Villanova (23-4, 17-9 ATS) squad into the Carrier Dome, long on big game experience. Both teams have talented deep backcourts, which could offset one another, meaning what goes on in the painted area might determine your winner. Forward Antonio Pena, will need the likes of Taylor King, Maurice Sutton, Isaiah Armwood and possibly even Mouphtaou Yarou, all to be a factor for a club that 11-3 and 9-5 ATS away from home.
Coach Jay Wright will play funky defenses designed to confuse, which he can with his guard contingent that are amoeba-like in adaptability, which is why Syracuse (26-2, 17-7 ATS) has to establish dominance in the lane. Finding ways to feed the post to Rick Jackson and Arinze Onuaku opens up wing players like Wes Johnson and sub Kris Joseph, to score in various ways and clears shooting lines for Andy Rautins and others. The Orangemen are 9-2 ATS versus good defensive teams permitting 42 or less field goal accuracy.
Coaching adjustments will also be important and so will rebounding. The team with most boards is 13-1 SU and ATS.
Sunday, Feb. 28
Richmond at Xavier 1:00E ESPN2
It wasn't supposed to be this way in the Atlantic 10, with three teams tied for first place this late in the campaign, especially if the roll call was Richmond, Xavier and Temple. The Spiders (22-6, 15-9 ATS) have given opposing teams arachnophobia, with its crawling defense that permits just 60.1 points per game. Richmond plays mostly upperclassmen, many of whom were on 8-22 squad from three years ago. The Spiders defense really started to get under opponents skin when coach Chris Mooney inserted center Darrius Garrett into starting lineup, being a shot blocking specialist. Who makes Richmond go is 5'11 Kevin Anderson, whose elevated the program to first Top 25 ranking in 24 years. The Spiders are 6-2 ATS this season as creepy underdogs.
Xavier (20-7, 17-9 ATS) was thought to have lost too much talent from last season and not defend their A-10 crown. Taking a wider perspective, new coach Chris Mack took over a program widely successful and placed his personal stamp on in, having senior Jason Love follow his lead. What Musketeers insiders have marveled at is Mack sets expectations for each player on the team and demands they meet them every day. He doesn't holler and scream all the time, but uses several techniques to keep them focused on pushing themselves. Indiana transfer Jordan Crawford has helped this team exceed others expectations, not Xavier's. The Musketeers are 13-0 and 10-2 ATS at the Cintas Center, destroying foes by 23.4 points per game.
Xavier is 7-2 and 6-3 ATS in previous nine matchups.
Michigan State at Purdue 4:00E CBS
The way the Big Ten schedule has played out, every couple of days, a national game of importance is on tap and another is coming on Sunday. Despite a collection of top returning players, it has been anything but easy for Michigan State (21-7, 10-17 ATS). After losing three straight to start February, the Spartans had been showing signs of improving daily (until Ohio State), with guard Kalin Lucas back in control from sprained ankle. Others like Durrell Summers are finally playing smarter and Tom Izzo's crew is 22-10 ATS revenging a same season loss.
A win against Michigan State might well place Purdue (24-3, 13-14 ATS) on the top row to draw a top seed when the tournament bids come out in couple of weeks, however that belief is now clouded with the season ending injury to Robbie Hummel. Like coach Izzo, Matt Painter deserves a boiler room full of credit, riding out tumultuous times in the early part of Big Ten schedule. The Boilermakers stayed the course, fought thru the challenging moments and emerged a mentally tougher club, with road wins at Champaign, East Lansing and Columbus. In Purdue's latest winning streak, center JaJuan Johnson has been a beast and E'Twaun Moore is their leading scorer. However, Hummel was second leading scorer and rebounder on a team not blessed with size. Purdue will have to adjust swiftly and they are 16-5 ATS vs. teams averaging 16 assists a game.
Purdue is 5-1 SU and ATS when Spartans come to Mackey Arena.
Clemson at Florida State 5:30E FSN
The bracketolgists (is there a more worthless job) of college hoops have seven ACC teams making the field of 65 right now. If this information is to be believed, these two teams are fighting to move up toward better seeds, making this a mega-matchup in the ACC. Clemson (19-8, 12-12 ATS) is like Mark McGwire on roids at home (13-2, 9-3 ATS) and about as intimidating as David Spade on the road (4-5 SU and 0-4 ATS as road pooch). The Tigers are in the midst of playing last three of five conference conflicts away from home and are 0-9 ATS in road tilts taking on teams with a winning record.
Most so-called experts believe Florida State (20-7, 8-14 ATS) has to hold serve in last two home games to punch their ticket for NCAA berth. The Seminoles have been a potent squad at the Donald L. Tucker Center at 12-2, but a woeful wager at 2-8 ATS. Florida State has been at or near the top of the defensive field goal percentage numbers all season in the ACC and has the ability to stifle Clemson, who malfunctions when it comes to half court offense. Center Solomon Alabi has been the team's leading scorer (12.0) and he'll have a chance to improve the Noles fortunes.
Clemson is only 3-9 and 6-6 ATS in Tallahassee.