College Hoops Betting Notes & Quotes
By Teddy Covers
In this week’s edition, I’ll look at a trio of under-the-radar teams, well outside the national spotlight. All three teams have the potential to offer real value moving forward as bet-on or bet-against plays in the specific roles that I highlight in this article.
Key Panther Injury
The betting markets expected a significant decline from Northern Iowa this year after the graduation losses of Missouri Valley Player of the Year Adam Koch, NCAA tournament hero Ali Farokhmanesh (who hit the huge shot to upset Kansas, leading the Panthers all the way to the Elite Eight) and 7-footer Jordan Eglseder. The betting markets were wrong.
Northern Iowa has won eight straight heading into the weekend, including outright upset wins on the road against Missouri Valley heavyweights Wichita State and Missouri State. The Panthers have been a pointspread machine as road underdogs, just like they were last year. In fact, head coach Ben Jacobson’s track record in this role is truly remarkable - 21-5 ATS as road underdogs in conference in his five years on the job.
Their road success can in many ways be attributed to the play of senior guard Kwadzo Ahelegbe, who made his 97th consecutive career start in a win over Illinois State earlier this week. And the emergence of sophomore Anthony James, who missed his entire freshman year after a bout of mononucleosis, has been a major spark for the Panthers.
“We have lots of guys that can shoot the basketball. The only thing different (now) is the young guys are just playing. They’re not thinking as much,” Jacobson said of the emergence of his young players.
But the Panthers just lost senior forward Lucas O’Rear to a season-ending ankle injury. O’Rear’s absence has the potential to have a significant impact on Northern Iowa’s fortunes down the stretch. At 260 pounds, he was a low post behemoth and a dynamite screen setter to free up the Panthers’ perimeter shooters. O’Rear’s modest averages, seven points, 5.7 rebounds per game, do not reflect his true worth to the team.
“He’s put everything he’s got into helping our team win. He’s not a statistics kind of guy. He never has been. He’s just all about winning,” said Jacobson.
It’s worth noting that Northern Iowa didn’t sniff a pointspread cover as double-digit chalk over Illinois State after O’Rear got hurt earlier this week.
Wolverines midseason turnaround?
Michigan slumped mightily at the start of Big Ten play, going 1-6 SU in its first seven conference games. But the Wolverines came up big with a road win at Michigan State last week and followed that up with an impressive blowout against Iowa this past weekend. All of a sudden, Michigan is playing with confidence.
“This could be a turnaround not only for our season but our program. So we’ve just got to keep going hard, and that’s all we got to do, just play hard,” said forward Jon Horford.
Michigan has been able to hang tough with elite foes all year long. It took No. 2 Kansas to overtime earlier this season, thanks to a stifling defensive effort. The Wolverines came within three points of an upset over Syracuse - a Top 10 team for most of the season. They won outright at Clemson as big underdogs in the ACC-Big Ten challenge. And they hung within four points of No. 1 Ohio State in the first meeting between those two teams.
That leaves Michigan as a squad with the potential to offer real value when stepping up in class moving forward.
Bad-shooting Cowboys
The Wyoming Cowboys were not a particularly deep team coming into the season and a series of injuries has made their depth concerns significantly worse in recent weeks.
Four of their top seven players are either nursing injuries or out. Last year’s leading scorer, Afam Muojeke, is done for the year after another season-ending knee injury. Center Adam Waddell has a sore Achilles. Second-leading scorer and rebounder Djibril Thiam has a bad toe and starting point guard JayDee Luster has a bad hip.
Wyoming head coach Heath Schroyer has plenty of excuses for his team’s failures, particularly in hostile road environments. The Cowboys are 0-7 SU, 0-6 ATS on the highway, with all seven of those losses coming by double digit margins.
“No matter who you are in this league, if you lose two or three starters, you're probably not going to be as successful,” said Schroyer. “We played guys out of position and guys not ready to play those roles yet. They went out and did everything we asked them to do. We just weren't good enough.”
At home in Laramie Wednesday, Wyoming did a stellar defensive job against BYU superstar Jimmer Fredette. The Cowboys switching man-to-man defense forced Fredette into a truly rough evening.
“You have to give him different looks... (I used) anything I could think of,” said Schroyer.
But Wyoming’s offensive gameplan simply wasn’t strong enough to pull off the outright upset.
“We just have to make some shots. We're just going to have to figure out a way to generate some baskets, and generate some easy ones,” Schroyer said.
Until they do, savvy bettors might look at Cowboys as a strong under team at home and a bet-against team on the road.