Colonial Athletic Association Tournament Preview
By: Rob Veno
Friday, March 5 @ Richmond, Va.
#8 Towson vs. #9 UNC Wilmington
#5 VCU vs. #12 Delaware
#7 Hofstra vs. #10 Georgia State
#6 Drexel vs. #11 James Madison
Saturday, March 6 @ Richmond, Va.
#1 Old Dominion vs. Towson/UNCW winner
#4 George Mason vs. VCU/Delaware winner
#2 Northeastern vs. Hofstra/Georgia State winner
#3 William & Mary vs. Drexel/JMU winner
As has been the case almost every year throughout this new millennium, the CAA Tournament promises once again to be very hotly contested. This year’s edition finds no less than seven teams capable of reaching and winning the title. That journey will be a bit more difficult for #5 seed VCU, #6 seed Drexel and #7 seed Hofstra because they must play in the first round and win four games in four days in order to secure a ticket to the NCAA Tournament. Seeds one through four draw a bye right into the second round where #2 Northeastern, #3 William & Mary and #4 George Mason all could benefit if their opponents are stretched in the first round. The Richmond Coliseum venue has become a staple of this conference championship and it unquestionably favors VCU whose campus is within walking distance. Of significance from a handicapping standpoint is the fact that 10 of William & Mary’s 18 conference games were decided by three points or less. Also, Northeastern, Drexel and George Mason enter as the coldest of the contenders going 0-6, 1-5 and 2-8 against the spread down the stretch. Hofstra and Towson are on “over” hot streaks as they come into the tournament on 13-1 and 9-2 runs respectively. The #9 seed has defeated the #8 seed in seven of the last eight years going 7-1 ATS in the process. Eight of the last nine CAA Tournaments have been won by the #1 seed.
Tournament Winner: Northeastern
The veteran laden Huskies have all the ingredients to get the job done. NU features the league’s best all around backcourt tandem (Matt Janning and Chaisson Allen), solid interior play, a stifling defense (60.2 ppg allowed), and an abundance of upper class leadership. With a bye and in the bottom of the bracket, they avoid #1 seed Old Dominion and defacto home team VCU. Their opening matchup will be against either #7 Hofstra or #10 Georgia State. The Huskies will have a revenge motive against Hofstra who they recently lost to as 11-point home favorites 73-62. The semifinals would bring them another opportunity to exact revenge as in their only meetings this season; they lost a 53-52 heartbreaker to William & Mary and were surprisingly upset at home as 10- point favorites 61-48 by Drexel. A finals appearance would probably see them oppose ODU or VCU and whichever one it is, they could be worn out from their semifinal contest the night before.
Darkhorse: William & Mary
All of the attention in this tournament is going to be centered on Old Dominion, Northeastern, and VCU. Lost in the shuffle will be an unassuming William & Mary group that is as good as any team in the CAA. Three-point shooting, tournament style half court execution on each end, free throw shooting and taking care of the basketball are all positives for this squad. They’ve defeated Maryland and Wake Forest on the road as well as Richmond at home. They’re a very seasoned unit which will come well prepared.
Team to Fade: George Mason
Patriots enter this tourney ice cold against the spread. They’re not the experienced bunch that we’ve seen here in recent years. Ball handling and shooting issues (free throws included) work against them in this setting as does the VCU revenge angle.
First Round Best Bet: Hofstra-Georgia State OVER
This is an immediate turn around situation for teams that went over the posted 131.5 by 30.5 points six days ago. Hofstra is on a huge “over” run while GSU enters with four “overs” in their last five games. There should be plenty of value here.