Conference Tournament Betting Notes
By Steve Merril
Covers.com
ACC
North Carolina heads into the ACC tournament as the No. 1 seed in Atlanta. The Tar Heels were mightily impressive in their final regular season game as they went into Cameron Indoor and waxed Duke 88-70. They closed as 2-point road favorites in that game as heavy money came in on UNC.
The Heels’ win at Duke also improved their road to the title game as they avoided the bracket with Florida State - a team that beat them by 33 points (90-57) earlier this year. North Carolina was a pointspread machine down the stretch, going 6-1 ATS over its last seven games while winning by more than 15 points an outing.
Big Ten
Michigan State is the top seed in the Big Ten tournament despite sharing the regular season title and losing its last two games. The Spartans lost at Indiana and at home to Ohio State to close out the schedule, but their biggest loss could be freshman Branden Dawson, who went down with a season-ending knee injury.
Dawson didn’t average big offensive numbers (8.4 points and 4.5 rebounds per game), but he was the Spartans’ best defensive player that did all of the little things right.
“We'll miss the body,” head coach Tom Izzo said when asked about losing Dawson.
“I still think this team has a chance to make a strong run in both tournaments,” Izzo said. “But there’s no question we’ll be hindered some by the lack of a guy who was our best defensive player.”
Michigan State went just 1-3 ATS over its last four games of the season after covering the spread in seven of its previous eight games.
Big 12
Baylor will be the No. 4 seed in the Big 12 tournament, being held at the Sprint Center in Kansas City. The Bears went 25-6 SU in the regular season with all six of their losses coming in conference play. Those defeats came to just four teams: Kansas (twice), Missouri (twice), Kansas State, and Iowa State, who have a combined record of 96-27 SU.
Baylor is an extremely talented team, but it has a suspect head coach in Scott Drew, who always seems to get out-coached while lacking adequate in-game adjustments. Despite its talent, Baylor was a disaster against the spread in conference play this season.
The Bears went just 6-11 ATS, including 1-3 ATS as road favorites. They went 2-3 ATS in conference as underdogs, and overall they were 4-3 ATS when getting points with their other two wins coming out of conference against Northwestern and BYU.
Big East
Syracuse (30-1 SU) is the top seed and the favorite to cut down the nets in Madison Square Garden. But it’s no slam dunk for the Orange to win the Big East tournament, especially after reports of failed drug tests surfaced this week.
On the court, it all depends on who Syracuse matches up with. Aside from the Cuse, there are five other teams in the league that played good basketball this season: Notre Dame, Georgetown, Marquette, Cincinnati, and Louisville.
Syracuse did go 5-1 SU against those teams, but its five wins came by just nine, seven, seven, three, and one-point margins. To compare, Syracuse’s 12 other conference wins came by an average of 14 points per game.After covering the spread in its first three conference games, Syracuse went just 6-9 ATS over its final 15 games, including a 2-4 ATS mark on the road.
Pac-12
California is the No. 2 seed in the Pac-12 tournament, being played at the Staples Center in Los Angeles. The Golden Bears (23-8 SU) were probably the Pac-12’s best overall team, but they played much better at home (17-1 SU) than they did on the road (6-7 SU).
California did not sweep a road trip outside of its home state all season, so it’s a good thing that the tournament is in its backyard. The Golden Bears had a tough schedule to close the season, finishing with three consecutive road games, so their 0-3 ATS mark to cap conference play isn’t as bad as it looks. Prior to that, California was 4-1 ATS in its previous five games, so look for this team to represent itself well in this week's tournament.
SEC
Kentucky is the most talented team in the country and has been all season long. The Wildcats did not disappoint, going 30-1 SU with their only loss coming by a single point (73-72) at Indiana way back in early December.
Kentucky went a perfect 16-0 SU in conference play and it’s an overwhelming favorite to win the SEC tournament. In fact, UK is close to a 1-to-3 favorite to take home the conference championship. You can take the field (all other 11 teams) to win the tournament and get close to 2.5-to-1 on your money.
Kentucky was favored by double digits in 11 of its 16 conference games. In the five games in which they were favored by single digits, the Wildcats went just 3-2 ATS.