Big Sky Tournament Betting Preview
By Andrew Lange
Sportsmemo.com
The format of the Big Sky Tournament changes seemingly every year. Last year, only six teams made the field and the first round were at campus sites. The semifinals were at top seed Montana and the Grizzlies defeated second seed Weber State, 85-66, in the finals. This year sets up for an identical scenario with Montana hosting and Weber once again the No. 2 seed. After the first round they reseed the teams with Montana playing the lowest remaining seed in the semifinals.
First Round Pick: Southern Utah/North Dakota Over
I'm not usually looking to play neutral site conference tournament games over the total but both teams have obviously played in Montana's gym – which is normal in terms of back drop and depth perception – and I'm confident that pace of the game will be fairly high. In the two regular season meetings, SUU and ND hit 72 and 70 possessions. Both teams score and allow about a point per possession which gives us a raw score around 140. In the first meeting, SUU won 79-67 and like a lot of lower-level Big Sky games – because a lot these teams don't defend particularly well – there were 45 free throw attempts. In the last meeting, ND won 68-61, and again, there were 48 free throws. What kept the game below 130 was the remarkably low offensive efficiency – even for these two squads. Both teams combined for 27-of-75, 36% from 2-point range. The four best players on the court, all of which earned all-conference honors, SUU's Jackson Stevenett and Damon Heuir and ND's Troy Huff and Aaron Anderson went a combined 11-of-44 from the floor and netted only 34 points (Anderson only played 4 minutes and is probable with a concussion). In the first meeting, Huff didn't play and Stevenett, Heuir, and Anderson combined for 50 points. If we get something in between both meetings, and the projected pace, we cash the over.
Darkhorse: The gap between Montana and Weber and the rest of the Big Sky is astronomical. Both teams went a combined 34-1 SU vs. in games not against one another. So if someone outside of the top two wins this tournament it would be a massive upset. Out of the five-team pool, Northern Colorado looks to have the most upside. The Bears won six of their finals seven in league play and have enough offensive talent (1.08 ppp, 40.1% 3pt.) to potentially spring an upset or two.
Tournament Winner: It isn't by much but I think Weber State is the best team in the league, especially now that Montana is without the services of Mathias Ward (14.8 ppg). Will Cherry, Montana's veteran point guard and Big Sky Defensive Player of the Year, is also banged up. But, winning in Missoula has been damn near impossible for opposing Big Sky teams. The last time Montana lost to a conference opponent on its home court was February of 2010. That is tough to go against. Assuming it's a Montana vs. Weber State final, I'd love to get Weber at +2 or more but I expect to see a near pick 'em type game.
Schedule (All games in Missoula, Mont.)
Thursday, March 14
#2 Weber State vs. #7 Northern Arizona
#3 North Dakota vs. #6 Southern Utah
#4 Montana State vs. #5 Northern Colorado
Friday
#1 Montana vs. lowest remaining seed
Highest remaining seed vs. 2nd highest remaining seed
PAC-12 Tournament Betting Preview
By Teddy Covers
Sportsmemo.com
The PAC-12 received only one at-large bid from the tournament selection committee last year. That was at least partially the result of the numerous upsets in the PAC-12 tournament, where No. 6 seed Colorado beat No. 4 seed Arizona 53-51 in the Final. This year, UCLA, Oregon and Arizona are “locks” to make the Big Dance, and both Cal and Colorado are in good shape to get a bid as well. As a result, the PAC-12’s first tournament here at the MGM Grand Garden Arena in Las Vegas isn’t as crucial for many of the top seeds as it was last year.
The PAC-12 lacks elite teams, but they don’t have any true bottom feeders in the conference either. Arizona spent most of the season as the highest ranked PAC-12 team in the polls, but the Wildcats slumped down the stretch, losing four of their last eight games, including three out of four away from home. UCLA enters the postseason near the bottom of the top 25. Oregon spent a good portion of the season ranked, but the Ducks’ 5-6 SU mark down the stretch has left them in the “others receiving votes” category as tournament play begins. It’s clear that there is no clear-cut favorite to cut down the nets.
The bottom of the PAC-12 is capable of pulling an upset or two (or three, for that matter). Utah, Oregon State and Washington State were the only three teams to finish with sub .500 records in conference play. But Utah knocked off Oregon State and Oregon at home last weekend; entering the tourney with some legitimate positive momentum. Washington State upset UCLA and USC last weekend; another team with real momentum. And even Oregon State closed out the regular season with a road win at Colorado on senior day for the Buffaloes. There’s not a “dead” team in the bunch!
The pointspreads clearly show there’s not a huge difference between the contenders and the bottom feeders in this tournament. All four first round games are lined at -4.5 or less, although it looks like Colorado is going to take money against Oregon State now that leading rebounder and third leading scorer Andre Roberson has been upgraded to probable after missing the last two games due to a bout of mono. The Buffs are in a short turnaround revenge situation, but it’s surely worth noting that both regular season meetings were decided by exactly four points. It’s also worth noting that Colorado had only one win away from home in conference play by more than four points; back in January in Pullman.
First Round Pick: Stanford I’ll be giving Stanford a good look as short chalk (-3.5 at the opener) against Arizona State. The Cardinal won the NIT last year and their quotes all season long tell us clearly that they have absolutely zero desire to return to the NIT again in 2013. Johnny Dawkins’ squad has underachieved to their talent level for a good portion of the season, and the Cardinal clearly looked disinterested down the stretch, knowing full well that their Big Dance dreams would require them to win this tournament to get the automatic bid. They played well in preparation for the tourney last weekend, including an impressive road win at Cal. The Cardinal are big and bulky in the paint, with Dwight Powell and Josh Huestis blocking shots and cleaning up on the boards. Point guard Aaron Bright didn’t lose a single turnover in either game last weekend, and sharpshooter Chasson Randle can score from anywhere on the floor. Their first round opponent, Arizona State, was a surprise team back in January, but Herb Sendek’s Sun Devils dropped seven of their last ten regular season games and looked gassed in their non-competitive loss at arch-rival Arizona over the weekend.
Darkhorse: Stanford As I wrote above, the team with the most motivation of any coming into the weekend is Stanford and they have the talent level to back up their motivation. I’d definitely rate the Cardinal as a legitimate darkhorse candidate to win the whole thing and steal a bid.
Tournament Winner: Arizona Arizona and UCLA are the two best teams in the conference. But Ben Howland hasn’t put his full effort and attention on the PAC-12 tourney throughout his tenure in Westwood – the Bruins haven’t won more than a single game in this tournament since 2008, and even in that tournament victory they failed to cover the spread in two of their three games. Arizona, on the other hand, came up a bucket short of a PAC-12 tournament title last year and a bucket short (in overtime) of the tournament title in 2011 as well. I’ll call for the Sean Miller’s squad to get over the hump and win the tourney this year.
Conference Play Breakdown
Best Offense - Arizona 1.06 ppp
Best Defense - Colorado 95.5 ppp
Best 3-point - Stanford 41.1%
Best Free Throw - Stanford 74.4%
Fastest - UCLA 69.3
Slowest - Washington State 63.1
Schedule (All games in Las Vegas)
Wendesday, March 13
#8 Stanford vs. #9 Arizona State
#5 Colorado vs. #12 Oregon State
#7 USC vs. #10 Utah
#6 Washington vs. #11 Washington State
Thursday, March 14
#1 UCLA vs. #8/#9 Winner
#4 Arizona vs. #5/#12 Winner
#2 California vs. #7/#10 Winner
#3 Oregon vs. #6/#12 Winner
Mountain West Tournament Betting Preview
By Alatex Sports
Sportsmemo.com
The Mountain West Conference Tournament features nine teams, with five of them in position to earn an NCAA berth. As a result, this year’s tournament should be a wide open affair. The contenders include top seed New Mexico, No. 2 Colorado State, No. 3 (and host) UNLV, No. 4 San Diego State and No. 5 Boise State. The Aztecs have had the most success in the tournament in recent years with four straight championship game appearances and two titles including last year.
First Round Pick: Air Force Air Force had a surprising 8-8 finish in the conference, just two games behind UNLV’s 10-6 mark. They also played UNLV very tough, beating the Rebels by 15 on their home court and falling in overtime here back in January. UNLV was 7-1 SU on its home court in conference play, but covered just twice and won by more than 10 just twice, against bottom feeders Nevada and Wyoming. They lost their last home game to Fresno State and also struggled to beat Boise State in their next to last game, winning by just four. Air Force did have some poor efforts away from home this year, but did have home wins against New Mexico, San Diego State and Boise State in addition to its win over UNLV. They will not be overmatched in this one, and given the way that UNLV seems to play to their level of opponent, I see no reason to expect a blowout here and would not be shocked at an outright upset.
Darkhorse: Boise State Of the top five teams in the league, Boise’s position in the field of 68 is the most precarious. They have a solid resume, but no history and no name recognition, so they could benefit the most from a strong run in the tournament. They have proven that they can beat anyone in the conference, and have had some solid efforts on the road as well as at home. They almost knocked off UNLV here last week despite not getting anything from their best player, point guard Derrick Marks, who was saddled with foul trouble the entire game. They played two close games with San Diego State, their first round opponent, winning at home and losing by one on the road. They are a solid No. 5 seed with a great opportunity to win this tournament.
Tournament Winner: New Mexico If Boise doesn’t get the job done it will be because they couldn’t get past New Mexico in the semifinals. If that is the case, New Mexico is my pick to cut down the nets. They were the regular season champs and the one team that proved that they could beat the other contenders on the road as well as at home. I wouldn’t make them much of a favorite, however, simply because of the strength at the top of this conference. Like UNLV, Colorado State and San Diego State, the Lobos know that they are already in the Big Dance, so there is no extra motivation. All in all, this should be one of the best conference tournaments of the year, with a solid group of players and teams.
Conference Play Breakdown
Best Offense - Colorado State 1.12 ppp
Best Defense - New Mexico 93.3 ppp
Best 3-point - Boise State 37.5%
Best Free Throw - Air Force 77.4%
Fastest - UNLV 66.3
Slowest - Wyoming 59.2
Schedule (All games in Las Vegas)
Tuesday, March 12
#8 Wyoming vs. #9 Nevada
Wednesday, March 13
#3 UNLV vs. #6 Air Force
#2 Colorado State vs. #7 Fresno State
#1 New Mexico vs. #8/#9 Winner
#4 San Diego State vs. #5 Boise State
Atlantic-10 Tournament Betting Preview
By Teddy Covers
Sportsmemo.com
The Atlantic-10 Conference Tournament has moved from Boardwalk Hall in Atlantic City to the Barclays Center in Brooklyn, home of the Nets for the 2013 season. This conference got four Big Dance bids last year (Xavier, who made a run all the way to the Sweet 16, along with Saint Louis, St. Bonaventure and Temple). They should get four teams into the mix this year – Saint Louis, VCU, Temple and Butler – and a fifth team, LaSalle, is live to get an at large bid if it doesn’t earn an auto-bid from winning the tourney title.
Last year the top seeds didn’t bring much intensity to the A-10 tournament, knowing that their Big Dance bids were already secure. No. 1 seed Temple lost in their first game, as did No. 2 Saint Louis, and No. 4 seed St Bonaventure won the title in an 11-point win over Xavier on Selection Sunday. I wouldn’t be surprised in the slightest if we saw a similar no-show from some of the top seeds this year!
First Round Pick: Xavier The bottom three teams in the standings – Rhode Island, Fordham and Duquesne – were all true bottom feeders this year. The A-10 tournament structure allows only 12 of the 16 teams in the conference to participate, so none of the true “bet against” squads will be playing, and St. Bonnie lost its chance for a repeat tourney run with a home loss to Fordham on the final day of the regular season.
That leaves some compelling first round matchups! All four first round games are lined at -4.5 or less – we can expect plenty of drama and perhaps a last second buzzer beater or two. My clients and I cashed several tickets betting against Charlotte down the stretch, but the 49ers snapped their losing streak with back-to-back wins over the final weekend of the season; not a “dead team walking” heading into this weekend’s action.
The early money has shown for St. Joe’s against Xavier – Phil Martelli’s Hawks are 1-point favorites in that first round matchup as I write this preview. I’m not buying that the Musketeers should be the dog in this matchup. Xavier has been an undervalued commodity for most of the season, riding a 12-5 ATS run into the tourney. Over the last two weeks, they played heavyweights VCU and Butler down the final possession, both games coming on the road. Yes, their backcourt is very young with starters frosh Semaj Christon and sophomore Dee Davis. But with low post force Travis Taylor and sharpshooter Brad Redford draining open looks on the perimeter, I expect Xavier to get out of the first round with a win over a St. Joe’s team that lost its last five away from home both SU and ATS.
Darkhorse: Xavier I used Xavier as my first round pick, and I’ll pick them as my darkhorse contender to cut down the nets on Sunday as well. The Musketeers have a long history of playing well in the A-10 tournament, including last year’s trip to the championship game, and they haven’t lost an A-10 tournament game by more than two points in regulation since 2008! They’ve beaten top notch foes like Saint Louis and Memphis in the last two weeks alone; capable of making a big run this weekend in an effort to steal a Big Dance bid.
Tournament Winner: VCU I hesitate to bet against St Louis, VCU or Butler; three teams that are quite capable of competing on a national stage. But the Billikens, Bulldogs and Rams have their Big Dance bids already locked up; all currently projected as No. 6 seeds or higher. I’m not convinced we’ll see maximum effort for any of the three. But I’ll call for this deep, defensive minded VCU squad to be the best of the three in this tournament. The Rams have shown they can dominate Butler and they’re certainly going to remember their ugly loss in Saint Louis should they meet up with the Billikens in the final.
Conference Play Breakdown
Best Offense - VCU 1.13 ppp
Best Defense - Saint Louis 92.0 ppp
Best 3-point - Dayton 40.9%
Best Free Throw - St. Bonaventure 81.4%
Fastest - UMass 68.9
Slowest - St. Joe's 62.8
Schedule (All games in Brooklyn)
Thursday, March 14
#8 Richmond vs. #9 Charlotte
#5 Butler vs. #12 Dayton
#7 Xavier vs. #10 St. Joe's
#6 UMass vs. #11 George Washington
Friday, March 15
#1 Saint Louis vs. #8/#9 Winner
#2 VCU vs. #7/#10 Winner
#3 Temple vs. #6/#11 Winner
#3 La Salle vs. #5/#12 Winner
SEC Tournament Betting Preview
By Alatex Sports
Sportsmemo.com
This year’s SEC Tournament is being played at the Bridgestone Arena in Nashville, Tenn. All 14 teams are in action including SEC newcomers Texas A&M and Missouri. Of the 14 teams, only top seeded Florida is assured of a spot in the NCAA Tournament. There are currently no fewer than six SEC teams are on the bubble for the Big Dance – Kentucky, Alabama, Missouri, Tennessee, Arkansas and Ole Miss. Of those teams, all of them have at least one bye, with only Arkansas playing before the quarterfinals. Kentucky has dominated the SEC tournament recently and historically, winning 27 times and reaching the finals in each of the last three years with two titles. Top-seed Florida hasn’t won since 2007, reaching the finals just once in the past five years.
First Round pick: Arkansas This is a huge game for the Razorbacks, who will still have work to boost their résumé should they get past the Commodores. Arkansas, like many SEC teams, played well at home but struggled on the highwat. Their series with Vandy was typical of their results; they beat Vandy 56-33 at home and lost 67-49 on the road. Even though this game is being played on Nashville, it is a neutral court and there won’t be an overwhelming crowd in the Commodores’ favor. Arkansas has more talent than Vandy, which has really struggled to score due to their lack of talent. The price is right as the Razorbacks move on to the next round.
Darkhorse: Kentucky It seems illogical for the No. 2 seed to be a darkhorse, but considering the gap between Florida and the rest of the league, everyone is a candidate. I think Kentucky has the best chance outside of the Gators. The Wildcats are young, flawed, and certainly miss Nerlens Noel. However they still have the most talent in the conference save for Florida. The win over the Gators in the regular season finale shows their capabilities and they certainly have a head coach with a proven track record in the postseason.
Winner: Florida The Gators are unquestionably the best team in the conference, and playing on a neutral court, they are substantial favorites to win this tourney. The season ending loss at Kentucky should give them solid motivation entering the tournament along with the fact that they are a senior laden group that has yet to win an SEC tourney. They also have a fairly easy bracket to the finals, with either LSU or Georgia and then Tennessee or Alabama. They have also gotten healthy, which gives them some depth, something that no other team in the league has. It should be a fairly easy road to the championship for the Gators.
Conference Play Breakdown
Best Offense - Florida 1.13 ppp
Best Defense - Florida 85.3 ppp
Best 3-point - Florida 39.2%
Best Free Throw - Missouri 76.0%
Fastest - Ole Miss 69.5
Slowest - Vanderbilt 61.2
Schedule (All games in Nashville)
Wednesday, March 13
#13 Mississippi State vs. #12 South Carolina
#14 Auburn vs. #11 Texas A&M
Thursday, March 14
#9 LSU vs. #8 Georgia
#5 Tennessee vs. #12/#13 Winner
#10 Vanderbilt vs. #7 Arkansas
#6 Missouri vs. #11/#14 Winner
Friday, March 15
#1 Florida vs. ##8/#9 Winner
#4 Alabama vs. TBA
#2 Kentucky vs. #7/#10 Winner
#3 Ole Miss vs. TBA
Big West Tournament Betting Preview
By Ian Cameron
Sportsmemo.com
The 2013 Big West Conference Tournament will take place March 14-16 at the Honda Center in Anaheim, California. The top eight teams qualified. In the semifinals, the highest seed will play the lowest seed, while the remaining two teams match up. Riverside is ineligible for postseason play, and thus will not compete in the tournament. Northridge finished 9th and also didn’t qualify.
Quarterfinal Pick: Cal Irvine Hawaii enjoyed a nice 9-4 start to Big West play but stumbled down the stretch losing four of its last six. Their only conference win during that time came by just 4 points at home against bottom-tier Santa Barbara. Hawaii ended the season playing dreadful basketball on the highway going 0-4 SU/ATS and I’m not sure they have any momentum going into this tournament against an Irvine squad that went 6-1 SU, 5-2 ATS in its last seven games. These teams split the regular season series with each team winning at home but Irvine is the more talented team and in much better form entering this tournament. They also have the situational edge playing in their home state and facing a team having to travel from the island to the mainland so I’m willing to support them in this short price range.
Darkhorse: UC Davis I’m reaching towards one of the bottom seeds as my darkhorse but with good reason. The Aggies went 6-4 SU in their last 10 games. They battled top seed Long Beach State tough in both meetings losing by 6 at LBSU and by just a single point at home. UC Davis also notched road wins at Fullerton and UCSB during that stretch of games. I also like the fact this team went 2-1 in neutral court games one of which was as an outright win as an underdog against Southern Illinois early in the season and they had the second best road record in the Big West behind only Long Beach State. They match up with Cal Poly in the quarterfinals and I don’t think there is a huge gap between those two teams especially with Davis and Poly splitting their two regular season meetings. If they can win that one, the Aggies might have what it takes to make a little bit of a run in this tournament.
Winner: Cal Irvine Top seed Long Beach State was the best team start to finish in the Big West Conference but Irvine ended the season as the hottest team winning six of their last seven games and I think they have what it takes to win this tournament. I made a lot of money backing this team early on in November and also cashed a couple tickets with Irvine late in the Big West conference season. They have the defensive acumen and size advantage on the interior to really frustrate teams inside the conference. The Anteaters have the 18th best FG defense in the country allowing foes to connect on only 38.7% from the floor. Let’s not forget that Irvine beat both USC and Nevada in non-conference and took UCLA to OT before losing by a single point. This is a dangerous team that is peaking at just the right time. I expect them to get past Hawaii in the quarterfinals and they would likely face Long Beach State in the semifinals. Irvine was able to split the season series with LBSU most recently winning 72-69 at home. That game will be their biggest test of the tournament but I give them more than a decent chance to pull the upset there. For as good as Long Beach State was in the conference, they are entering this tournament slumping just a bit – 1-2 SU, 0-3 ATS with road losses to Irvine and at blowout loss at Pacific. The 49ers were guilty of taking their foot off the gas pedal late in the season having already clinched first place with two weeks left. I have concerns about their ability to suddenly flip the switch and turn up the intensity after coasting for so long. I think the Anteaters have a great chance to go all the way here and grab an automatic berth into the Big Dance.
Conference Play Breakdown
Best Offense - Cal Poly 109.6 ppp
Best Defense - Pacific 98.2 ppp
Best 3-point - UC Davis 43.1%
Best Free Throw - Fullerton 77.2%
Fastest - Hawaii 69.3 (Northridge 69.3)
Slowest - Poly 60.1
Schedule (All games in Anaheim, Calif.)
Thursday, March 14
#2 Pacific vs. #7 Santa Barbara
#3 Cal Poly vs. #6 UC Davis
#1 Long Beach State vs. #8 Fullerton
#4 Cal Irvine vs. #5 Hawaii
Friday, March 15
#2/#7 winner vs. #3/#6 winner
#1/#8 winner vs. #4/#5 winner
Big Ten Tournament Betting Preview
By Erin Rynning
Sportsmemo.com
Michigan State cut down the nets last year in Banker’s Life Fieldhouse as the winner of the Big Ten Tournament. The Spartans were the No. 1 seed which marked the fifth time in the last six years the top team won. This year’s event moves to the United Center in Chicago and the bullseye will fall on the Indiana Hoosiers who won the regular season crown and earned the No. 1 seed after knocking off Michigan last Sunday. However, this is as deep a tournament field as I can remember since the inaugural event in 1998. For much of the regular season you could throw a blanket over Indiana, Michigan, Michigan State, Ohio State and even Wisconsin. Keep in mind in late December Minnesota and Illinois were respectively ranked 11th and 12th in the country and then play in the No. 8 vs. No. 9 game tomorrow.
First Round Pick/Darkhorse: Iowa The Hawkeyes are a longshot to get to the Big Dance, but a rapidly improving basketball team, with a 20-11 record. The Hawkeyes showed improvement down the stretch by winning six of their last eight games outright, while covering the pointspread in eight of their last 10. Defensively, Iowa has shown vast improvement, holding teams to just 58.5 points per game down the stretch. Keep in mind this team likes to push the pace as well. The Hawkeyes have the talent to compete in the Big Ten and beyond with Roy-Devyn Marble and Aaron White leading the way. The key for Iowa will simply be making shots. Iowa ranks 229th in the country in field goal percentage, while an even more troubling 318th in three-point shooting. If this team can shoot well they’ll easily roll over Northwestern and be “live” to make a deep tournament run.
Winner: Michigan Again, this is an extremely tough call with such balance throughout the league. The Wolverines stumbled all over themselves to close the season including a meltdown against the Hoosiers in the season finale. In fact, the Wolverines closed the season covering just one of their last 10 games. However, Big Blue still put up a phenomenal 25-6 record and has the talent and coaching to make a deep run in any postseason environment. The bracket sets up well with multiple opportunities for redemption. Michigan will open the tournament against Penn State. Of course, the Nittany Lions pulled the shocker of the conference season beating the Wolverines by six as a 13-point underdog in Happy Valley. While they should handle Penn State with ease, a showdown with Wisconsin would be on deck. Remember the half-court shot by Ben Brust to thrust the Badgers into an overtime win against the Maize and Blue in early February? I bet Michigan sure does. A win for the Wolverines over Wisconsin would most likely lead to another shot against Indiana in the semifinals – a match-up that would make a fine NCAA title game. The road through the Big Ten Tournament is tough but look for Trey Burke to carry the Wolverines to the title.
Conference Play Breakdown
Best Offense - Indiana 1.13 ppp
Best Defense - Wisconsin 90.8 ppp
Best 3-point - Indiana 41.6%
Best Free Throw - Iowa 73.8%
Fastest - Indiana 65.7
Slowest - Northwestern 59.6
Schedule (All games in Chicago)
Thursday, March 14
#8 Illinois vs. #9 Minnesota
#5 Michigan vs. #12 Penn State
#7 Purdue vs. #10 Nebraska
#6 Iowa vs. #11 Northwestern
Friday, March 15
#1 Indiana vs. #8/#9 Winner
#4 Wisconsin vs. #5/#12 Winner
#2 Ohio State vs. #7/#10 Winner
#3 Michigan State vs. #6/#10 Winner
ACC Tournament Betting Preview
By Rob Veno
Sportsmemo.com
The return of sharp shooting forward Ryan Kelly has most of the country believing that this is Duke’s tournament to lose. The bracket setup has the Blue Devils likely headed for a semifinal matchup with arch rival North Carolina who Duke dismantled at Chapel Hill last Saturday and then a potential showdown with Miami. Before we look too far ahead, there appears to be quite a bit of competitive basketball played between today’s first round and Friday’s quarterfinals. Youth will be in play as Wake Forest, Georgia Tech, Maryland, Virginia Tech and Clemson all have an abundance of underclassmen who are major contributors. With that in mind, results could be a bit random since there’s no real way of telling how players will react to this huge spotlight. Virginia and Maryland fit the “desperate team” bill here as they are both fighting to get into the Big Dance so expect fully focused efforts from each. Last season this tournament was played in Atlanta’s Phillips Arena but this year it is back in Greensboro Coliseum where in 2011, the tourney favorites went 8-3 against the spread. Of that 8-3 mark, it’s interesting to note that Duke was the No. 2 seed just as they are this time around and they went 3-0 ATS winning all three games by double-digits and defeating the pointspread by an average of 8.7 points per game. Totals the past couple of years are 12-10 O/U with no streak by round or individual team other than Maryland’s 3-1 O/U result.
First Round Pick: Florida State Clemson head coach Brad Brownell is one of many second or third year head coaches who came into the ACC with extremely impressive resumes but his Tigers are the one team that appears to be going backward rather than forward. A lot of Clemson’s disappointing season can be attributed to key personnel graduations and the subsequent youth movement they are now dealing with but the offense especially has regressed to the abysmal stage. Senior leaders Milton Jennings and Devon Booker are double-digit scoring interior forces but none of the next six players (all underclassmen) involved in Clemson’s eight-man rotation have stepped up as a consistent third scorer. The lack of scoring ability along with their poor free throw percentage figures to hurt the Tigers once more against this FSU team which played its best basketball of the season this past week upsetting North Carolina State and Virginia. The Seminoles won a pair of hard fought meeting this season by three and five points so in this situation, laying -2 looks to be a number they can handle.
Darkhorse: North Carolina State Yes they have to go the four-wins-in-four-days route and yes it’s likely that they’ll have to face an ACC “murderers’ row” of sorts in order to cross the finish line. The list of opponents could include a desperation filled No. 4 Virginia, No. 1 Miami and either No. 2 Duke or No. 3 North Carolina in the final. But, NC State is the one team from the No. 5 spot down that matches up talent wise with any of the top four and they own the needed confidence in order to pull off this type of championship run. Last year’s bitter 69-67 loss in the semifinals to top seed North Carolina is also something which is implanted in their current mind set so expect this team to have the necessary focus and desire.
Tournament Winner: Miami I know they staggered somewhat down the stretch but they seemed to regain their stability in the regular season finale. So much was made of Ryan Kelly’s 36-point performance in Duke’s win over the Hurricanes 12 days ago but what gets lost is how good Miami played. If it took a personal “game of the ages” as Mike Krzyzewski insisted it was, and if it took the advantage of playing at Cameron Indoor Stadium just to see Miami have a legitimate chance for OT at the buzzer, then why can’t the Hurricanes win on a neutral floor with revenge? Should Miami get to the final and face UNC, they are too strong defensively to be outscored so they are the pick to cut down the nets.
Conference Play Breakdown
Best Offense - Duke 1.15 ppp
Best Defense - Miami 93.2 ppp
Best 3-point - Duke 41.6%
Best Free Throw - Florida State 74.3%
Fastest - Wake Forest 69.0
Slowest - Virginia 60.5
Schedule (All games in Greensboro, NC)
Thursday, March 14
#8 Boston College vs. #9 Georgia Tech
#5 NC State vs. #12 Virginia Tech
#7 Maryland vs. #10 Wake Forest
#6 Florida State vs. #11 Clemson
Friday, March 15
#1 Miami vs. #8/#9 Winner
#4 Virginia vs. #5/#12 Winner
#2 Duke vs. #7/#10 Winner
#3 North Carolina vs. #6/#11 Winner