Mo-Valley Conference Tourney Preview
by: Brian Gabrielle
Creighton has won six of the last nine conference tournaments but this season the field is tougher than ever with no fewer than 4 Mo Valley teams ranked in the top 64 teams in the nation. In fact, top seed Drake is a top 20 team in the nation and boasts an impressive 21 game winning streak this season which does include wins over the top teams in this conference and also a road victory over Big 10 foe Iowa. Drake and second seed Illinois State draw first round byes in the 10 team Tournament which takes place at the Scottrade Center in St. Louis Missouri. This event has found a neutral home in St. Louis, which has neutralized somewhat the advantage of the top seeds. In fact, a #1 seed hasn't won this Tournament in the past decade and Drake fans may be extra nervous, as the Bulldogs have never won this event, they are just 11-29 all-time in this tournament and haven't reached the NCAA Tournament since 1971.
The Tournament fires up with the eighth-seeded Indiana State Sycamores facing the ninth-seeded Wichita State Shockers. The teams split the regular season with both teams holding serve on home court, while the Sycamores enjoyed a 5 point total scoring advantage in the two games. The BGS Power Ratings make Indiana State a small favorite and oddsmakers echo this, making either team a +1 point dog depending on where you bet. I'll call this game Indiana State 64, Wichita State 61. However, the winner of this contest faced Drake on Friday, so any celebration early will be short lived.
The other MVC opening round game pits the Missouri State Bears against the Evansville Purple Aces. The Bears won three straight to end regular season, including an upset of Drake. In the last meeting between these two teams the Bears doubled the Aces 76-38. In fact, Evansville has never won this tournament and after a last place finish with just 3 conference wins this season, that shouldn't change. I have the the Bears big here. Missouri State 74, Evansville 56. The second round matchup pitting the winner (Da' Bears) against Illinois State should prove to be a fantastic second round game.
On Friday, the Creighton Bluejays face the Bradley Braves. These teams split a pair of meetings, with the Bluejays capturing an amazing 111-110 double-overtime thriller to punctuate the regular season. Last season, the Bluejays defeated Southern Illinois for their 10th Conference title, twice in the past three years and six times in the last nine seasons. That success should give Creighton an emotional edge, but these teams are very closely matched, with the BGS Power Ratings suggesting a mere basket seperating the two. It should be noted that Bradley out-scored the Blue Jays by a combined 27 points in the two regular season meetings.
The quarterfinal round wraps up with the Southern Illinois Salukis battling the Northern Iowa Panthers. The Salukis have reached the finals of this tournament the last two seasons, winning it all in 2006 and losing out to Creighton last season. In fact, the Saluki have made it to the championship game four times in the past six seasons. After lofty pre-season expectations, the Salukis struggled with consistency for most of the season, however, they did finish strong, winning five of their final six games. The teams split a pair of regular season games but the Saluki out-scored the Panthers by a combined 15 points in the two games and the BGS Power Ratings suggest a -5 point Saluki win. Considering the success Southern Illinois has enjoyed in this tournament, I am sticking with that. Southern Illinois 68, Northern Iowa 63.
This Tournament has been a two dog race in recent years with Creighton and Southern Illinois passing it back and forth. While both teams are right in the thick of it again this season it cannot be ignored that Drake is the team to beat.
Is Xavier for Real ?
By Matt Fargo
Xavier is an appropriate team to focus on this week as its final test of the season takes place on Thursday night at St. Joseph’s. The Musketeers conclude their season on Saturday at home against Richmond. Xavier, 25-4 overall, has won 11 straight games and 17 of its last 18 to basically run away with the regular season Atlantic Ten title. The Musketeers broke the school record for most regular season wins and now they are gunning for the overall record of 28 wins set by the 1989-90 Sweet 16 team.
Most teams with 25 wins prior to the end of the regular season are not even discussed as being a possible fraud team but unfortunately, the Musketeers are part of that group. This is not due to the fact of having any significant weaknesses, but more so of the fact it really has not been tested a great deal. The non-conference schedule was nice but certainly not overwhelming. A victory over Kansas St. was the biggest win while losses to Miami Ohio and Arizona St. are unsettling. A loss to Tennessee was expected.
Some other non-conference wins included SE Missouri St., Coppin St., Oakland, Belmont and Delaware St. Again, not very impressive. Add to that playing in a weak Atlantic Ten Conference and what you have is a record that might be skewed based on a relatively soft schedule. Still, Xavier is eighth in the AP Poll, its highest ranking since being ranked a school-record seventh early in the 1997-98 season. Collegerpi.com has the Musketeers listed at sixth, which is extremely surprising based on the schedule rank.
The Musketeers are a solid 9-3 in road games and this includes six straight wins in the Atlantic Ten. The problem is that there has been a lack on domination as the last four wins have come by an average of only 3.5 ppg. Making that even worse is the fact that all four of those wins came against teams with a .500 conference record or worse. Xavier has dominated at home this season, which it does basically every year, but there will be no home postseason games so stepping up on the road is a must.
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As far as the bad, that is about it. You cannot fault Xavier for playing in a weak conference and it has won the games it needed to. There are a lot of positives on this team and come tournament time, those aspects will need to come out if it plans to make a historic run. Xavier leads the Atlantic Ten Conference in scoring margin (seventh in the nation at +14.1 ppg.), rebounding margin (26th in the nation at +5.7), field goal percentage defense (30th in the nation at 40.1 percent) and A/TO ratio at 1.20.
The Musketeers are second in the conference and 18th in the nation in free throw shooting at 75 percent, second in the conference and 16th in the nation in three-point shooting at 39.7 percent, 2nd in the conference and 38th in the nation in scoring defense at 62.0 ppg and second in the conference in three-point shooting defense at 33.3 percent. All of these statistics show what a powerful team this really is no matter who it has played. One of these stats needs to be touched on further and that is free throw shooting.
There probably is not a bigger factor come tournament time than free throw shooting. With so many tight games, making free throws is vital and Xavier possesses this trait. The Musketeers have an amazing four players that are shooting over 80 percent for the season. Josh Duncan is hitting 86.2 percent, B.J. Raymond is hitting 86.2 percent, Drew Lavender is hitting 85.3 percent and Stanley Burrell is hitting 83.5 percent. Words cannot describe how important this is and they are going to have an edge in nearly every game.
The Musketeers rely heavily on balance and Xavier is one of only three teams in the country to have five players that average double figures in scoring with Duke and Clemson being the other two. This type of balance can be a nightmare for defenses and the Musketeers have five players ranging from 10.6 ppg to 11.7 ppg. Xavier is 18-0 when four or more players score in double figures and the reason is fairly obvious since the points can come from basically anywhere on the floor.
This is a very veteran team with three seniors and two juniors comprising five of the seven players that average double-digits in minutes. They have been here before and they know what to expect. There is also going to be a chip on their shoulder following the debacle from last season. The Musketeers led Ohio St. by nine points with less than three minutes left but the Buckeyes rallied and tied the game with a three-pointer with two seconds left that sent the game into overtime and an eventually Ohio St. win.
Another good thing going for Xavier has been it plays up or down to the competition. The Musketeers are 0-6 ATS against teams with a losing record but 11-5 ATS against winning teams and they are going to face nothing but over .500 teams come postseason time. The Musketeers have been overpriced for the majority of the season and they are 1-5 ATS when favored by more than 17 points but they won’t be laying those numbers in the Big Dance. Soft schedule or not, this is going to be an extremely dangerous team.
VegasInsider.com
HANDICAPPING MID MAJOR TOURNAMENTS
Scott Spreitzer
It’s hard to believe that tournament basketball is finally here! Several mid major tournaments start this week, with the winners earning automatic bids to the NCAA Tournament. Everybody else has their tournaments the following week.
A year ago at this time I outlined some suggestions for handicapping the mid majors. These tournaments have a different atmosphere because so few teams can count on getting an at large bid. You’re going to see some very intense basketball! I’m not going to write up a new version of that piece. But I do want to quickly review those themes. They matter just as much this year as they did last year:
# The TOP teams bring peak intensity because they just can’t afford a loss. It’s safer to play favorites in these events because so much is stake for the top seeds. Upsets are much more common in the major tournaments where top seeds are already locked into the Dance. Betting against mid major powers is a dicey proposition at best.
# Depth is very important because teams are playing big games on consecutive days. Short rotations fade from fatigue. Deep teams are able to handle the gauntlet.
# Inside basketball trumps outside basketball most of the time. For every game where a team happens to get hot from long range, there are two where the power teams are dominant. Focus on defense and rebounding when comparing teams in a matchup.
# Bad guard play will kill you, but good guard play won’t necessarily win any games. The media tends to overrate the impact of guards in tournament action, and underestimate the impact of the inside men. Don’t bet on a team just because they’ve got a star guard. It’s okay to bet against teams who are weak at guard.
# Look to play UNDERS in the first half and full game whenever good defenses or slow tempos are on the court. When those factors are in play on a NEUTRAL court, scoring really plummets.
Okay, you should know that stuff by now anyway if you’re a serious handicapper. I’d like to add these elements to your handicapping arsenal…
# Study how all tournament teams performed in their conference ROAD games. This is usually a great indicator for playoff performance. Some teams who look pretty good in their full season numbers just padded their stats by winning blowouts at home. Unless they’re hosting the tournament, they’re probably going to underachieve expectations in the tourneys. This particular truth has helped me pick winners for many years. It also works great with college bowl games. Throw out home performances when studying neutral site games. Regular season “road warriors” typically do very well in tournaments.
# Make sure you pay close attention to the turnover category as you study past boxscores, and “read and react” once the tournament is under way. Teams with turnover problems will typically see those magnified in tournaments because the officials don’t blow as many whistles. Players have to learn to maintain possession when getting hacked or pushed. The refs just aren’t going to bail them out. One reason scoring goes down in tournaments is that more possessions are ending with turnovers instead of free throws. Teams who are prone to losing the ball anyway often have disastrous results. They’ll score in the high 40’s or 50’s rather than the 60’s or higher. Look to take the opponent and the Under whenever a sloppy team is playing in a neutral floor in a tourney.
# Remember that teams who live by the three die by the three…which means that any team that just won a big game by making a bunch of treys is about to fall back to earth with a thud. Some of my biggest winners in recent years have come on day two of a tournament because I knew a first round winner had played way over their heads. This one factor can trump everything else. There’s just no way to maintain red hot shooting over a period of games. And, there’s no way to win if you’re having a horrible day from behind the arc. Successful tournament handicapping consists of both pre-tourney preparation and “in the moment” analysis. Either will make you money. Mastering both will make you A LOT of money!
Some of today’s issues will also be important in the major tournaments down the road. But, I wanted to point them out to you here because the mid-major conferences can have a lot of variance from top to bottom. There’s more consistency in the majors because of the caliber of athletes. When you’re talking about the Horizon Conference, or the Sun Belt, or the Ohio Valley, you’ll see BIG differences in depth, road play, inside strength, turnover tendencies, and three-point shooting streaks. That leads to some extreme results against conservative Las Vegas pointspreads that are based on full season averages. Double digit covers are common. Finding them ahead of time isn’t very difficult if you’re studying the right indicators!
Pac-10 Conference tourney preview and analysis
By MARC LAWRENCE
Date: March 12 - 15 (All games at Staples Center • Los Angeles, CA)
THE TOP GUNS
No. 1 seed - UCLA Bruins
Record: 28-3, 16-2 Pac-10 play
Everyone’s easy-to-like top seeded Bruins struggled a bit down the stretch. But the fact of the matter is Ben Howland’s bunch is as talented as any team in the land.
We’re sure the Uclans well remember last year’s faux pas when they were bounced in the first round of this tournament as a No.1 seed against 15-point underdog California.
The most impressive achievement on their ledger? How about the fact they were 13-1 SU (straight up) and 12-1-1 ATS (against the spread) in games against .650 opposition or better this season.
No. 2 seed – Stanford Cardinal
Record: 24-6, 13-5 Pac-10 play
The Tree Farm is led by the seven-foot Lopez twins, Brook and Robin – both of whom will be dancing with the NBA stars.
It’s no surprise they rank No. 3 in the land in net rebound margin and No. 17 in defensive field goal percentage. They have, though, gone one-and-out the last two years in this event and are just 3-6 ATS at this tourney since its inception.
The feeling here is Stanford is a real sleeper and will be on our NCAA March Madness buy list.
No. 3 seed – Washington State Cougars
Record: 23-7, 11-7 Pac-10 play
The Cougars have ascended to new heights in their two years under head coach Tony Bennett. They are, however, just 4-9 SU and ATS against conference foes with a win percentage of .714 or greater behind Bennett.
After a 15-0 start out of the gate, WSU leveled out at 9-7 SU and 6-10 ATS to close out the campaign. They will need to step it up in order to wear the crown.
No. 4 seed – USC Trojans
Record: 20-10, 11-7 Pac-10 play
Like Bennett above, Tim Floyd has also done a masterful job with USC. He has been money in the bank as a dog, going 26-13-1 ATS (with 18 SU wins), including 8-0-1 ATS against .900 or better opposition.
Heed our advice - don’t fade the Trojans in their most desirable role. They shoot the ball straight (No. 13 offensive field goal percentage) and they defend it with conviction (No. 16 defensive field goal percentage).
THE NEAR MISSES
No. 5 seed – Arizona State Sun Devils
Record: 19-11, 9-9 Pac-10 play
A pleasant surprise this season when second year head coach Herb Sendek took the Sun Devils’ six-win season in his first year at the helm last year and transformed them into a 19-win ‘on the bubble’ unit this season.
A win against USC in the first round will virtually cement an invite to the Big Dance. Unfortunately, they have never won a game in this event (0-5 SU and 1-4 ATS).
No. 6 seed – Oregon Ducks
Record: 18-12, 9-9 Pac-10 play
The other two teams, atop and below this write-up, certainly qualify as a sleeper team in this event. We’ll cast our vote the Ducks’ way, though.
A 29-win team last year, with four returning starters, Oregon severely underachieved this season. They are, however, deeply talented, and a team none of the ‘big boys’ are anxious to rub up against.
A bevy of good tournament numbers heading in, including a 5-0 ATS mark with three-plus days of rest, makes the Web Feet attractive.
No. 7 seed - Arizona Wildcats
Record: 18-13, 8-10 conference play
As improbable as it may be, the Wildcats finished the season with a losing record in conference play for the first time since 1984.
Still, with a roster as deeply talented as any in the conference, it would be no surprise should they knock one or two of the Top Guns, especially with starting PG Nick Wise back in the lineup.
An interesting stat finds the Cats 1-5 ATS in this tourney against foes off back-to-back wins; 5-1 ATS otherwise.
No. 8 seed – Washington Huskies
Record: 16-15, 7-11 Pac-10 play
Now this is a canine with some clout. At 16-15 this season, the Huskies won’t make the Big Dance but appear to be a legitimate NIT or CBI squad.
The No. 12 rebounding team in the nation, the Huskies beat UCLA, while also taking out Oregon and both of the Arizona’s. They have won 25 conference games straight up as puppies this decade, making these Huskies dangerous dogs.
FYI: they are 0-4 ATS as postseason favorites of more than six points.
THE VICTIMS
No. 9 seed – California Bears
Record: 15-14, 6-12 Pac-10 play
One game under .500 last season. One game over this year. The Bears, however, enter this tourney on a 1-7 losing slide with zero-to-little confidence.
On the plus side, California was 8-3 ATS away from Berkeley this season. If they somehow get past Washington in their first game it would likely be the end of the road as they are 0-6 ATS in this extravaganza against an opponent off a win.
No. 10 seed – Oregon State Beavers
Record: 6-24, 0-18 Pac-10 play
It used to be the Beavers were a lousy football team and competitive on the hardwood. The dichotomy has done a 180 lately, though, as the Beaverball rides a 21-game conference losing streak (6-15 ATS) in this tourney.
Unfortunately, it’s nothing but bad numbers for OSU in this event too (0-3 ATS as dogs of more than six points, 0-3 ATS versus .700 or greater opposition, and the list goes on). Not exactly the kind of team you want to sink your teeth into.
PARTING SHOTS:
After tailing at season’s end, the Bruins will be pumped up looking to make amends for last year’s opening round blunder. Remember this: teams in this tournament that score 66 or fewer points are 6-24 SU and 5-23 ATS. UCLA can apply those kind of clamps.
ACC tourney preview and analysis
By Matty Baiungo
The ACC men’s basketball tournament runs Thursday through Sunday in Charlotte, N.C., with all games being played on the home floor of the Charlotte Bobcats. All 12 ACC teams are in, with the top-four seeds - North Carolina, Duke, Clemson and Virginia Tech - getting a first-round bye.
For the other eight teams, that means they’ll need to win four consecutive games to win the tournament - no easy task. Let’s take a closer look at the teams (listed according to their seeding):
No. 1 North Carolina Tar Heels
UNC earned the No. 1 seed after winning at Duke on Saturday night. The Tar Heels are the complete package: they get excellent point-guard play (Ty Lawson), great perimeter shooting (Wayne Ellington), a monster inside game (Tyler Hansbrough), good team defense, and they hit their free throws (76.1 percent). They only have two losses this year, to Maryland and Duke at home in conference play. The obvious team to beat, but they were only 3-4 ATS as a road favorite in conference play.
No. 2 Duke Blue Devils
The team everybody loves to hate just keeps winning. The Dukies have been ultra-impressive this year, considering just one starter is a senior. Although all five starters average double-digits in scoring, the Blue Devils’ biggest strength is on defense: they’re No. 2 in conference efficiency. In conference play, it’s been a tale of two seasons for Duke. The Blue Devils went 8-0-1 ATS over their first nine games, but 1-6-1 to the spread since. They can win the ACC, but their youth and lack of an inside game might prevent it.
No. 3 Clemson Tigers
Clemson’s fast non-conference starts have historically tailed off once conference play begins. But this season, the Tigers haven’t faded as much as in previous years, going a solid 10-6 SU in ACC games. The Tigers have the ability to beat both top seeds, but they could also lose to a lower-tier team -- you never know what kind of performance you’re going to get. Clemson is also the worst free-throw shooting team in the ACC (59.1 percent), which doesn’t help.
No. 4 Virginia Tech Hokies
At 18-12 SU and squarely on the bubble, Tech will be playing for an NCAA bid. The Hokies need to win a couple of games, but it won’t be easy. Believe it or not, they have the best defense in the conference, according to efficiency numbers. But they also have the conference’s worst offense. That means they’ll be in lower-scoring games, which usually helps in tournament games. Their defense may get them past their quarterfinal game, but don’t expect much after that.
No. 5 Miami Hurricanes
The Hurricanes are quietly having a good season at 21-9 SU, but eight of those losses have come in conference play with six of them on the road. Asking the ’Canes to win four straight here is asking too much. Miami-Fla is also looking for an NCAA bid, but it needs a better team effort. Junior guard Jack McClinton is the only starter averaging more than 10 points per game – that’s the main reason Miami has been held to 70 points or less 12 times this season. The Hurricanes could still get to the semis, but further than that is unlikely.
No. 6 Maryland Terrapins
After looking like a sure-fire NCAA tournament team, Maryland has tanked over its last seven games. The Terrapins have gone 2-5 SU, while covering just one point spread. But this team is capable: it did win tough road games in North Carolina, Georgia Tech and Wake Forest. Gary Williams will have to do one heck of a coaching job over the next few days to get this group back on track. The Terrapins need a good showing to get an NCAA bid, and their road to the semifinals is not all that difficult.
No. 7 Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets
This team is erratic offensively. The Yellow Jackets take a ton of bad shots, but they’ve been in a nice groove lately. They’ve scored 74 points or more, while winning and covering three of their last four games. Two of the wins came against Clemson and Wake Forest, so the Yellow Jackets should not be overlooked. They own the best perimeter defense in the ACC, holding opponents to just 29 percent. That will allow them to hang around with the better teams. It’s no surprise that they are 10-6 ATS as an underdog this year. If they survive Round 1, Tech will lose to Duke in Round 2.
No. 8 Wake Forest Demon Deacons
This could be the sleeper team in this tournament. The Demon Deacons are young, and they’ve certainly taken their lumps this year. But they are extremely talented and should get by the first round, which will pit them against UNC. Their free-throw shooting needs improvement (66 percent); it’s cost them many close games. Of their 12 overall losses, Wake has lost eight times by eight points or less. Wake Forest could make some noise, but getting by UNC in the second round will be tough.
No. 9 Florida State Seminoles
Another middle-of-the-road ACC team coming into the tournament with some confidence. The Seminoles are 4-1 SU their last 5 games (3-1-1 ATS), but they get a bad draw with Wake Forest. Wake swept the two meetings this year while shooting 50% from the floor and from behind the arc. Florida State’s offense is next to last in the conference in efficiency and dead last in assists. The Seminoles simply cannot match points with the higher-scoring teams, and most likely will be gone after one game.
No. 10 Virginia Cavaliers
As Sean Singletary goes, Virginia goes. Singletary is a one-man wrecking crew, averaging almost 20 points per game. But he doesn’t get much help from his teammates. And in bad Singletary games, this team has virtually no chance of winning. The Cavaliers have won four of their last six games, while covering five of those. Expect a close game with Georgia Tech in the first round, as one game went to overtime and the other was decided by a bucket earlier this season.
No. 11 Boston College Eagles
Aside from Tyrese Rice, Eagles head coach Al Skinner doesn’t have much to work with. BC enters this tournament on a massive slide having lost 14 of its last 17 games - including six straight. The Eagles only won a single road conference game, and that was back in December at Maryland. Guess that’s a good thing, because they’ll face Maryland in the first round. Even if BC gets past Maryland, next up would be Clemson, which beat the Eagles by 22 points earlier this season.
No. 12 N.C. State Wolfpack
Losers of eight straight, NC State has little hope of turning things around and making a run in this tournament. The Wolfpack plays no defense, and they’ve allowed 79.5 points per game over their current losing streak. They shoot the long ball well, with the best three-point attack in the conference (39.7 percent). But they are also the league’s worst perimeter defense, allowing 41.7 percent from three-point land. One and done for the Pack.
Overall, this should be another competitive ACC tournament. In the end, the top teams will again prevail, which means a third meeting this season between North Carolina and Duke, with the Tar Heels emerging as ACC champions.
SEC tourney preview and analysis
Matty Baiungo
SOUTHEASTERN CONFERENCE
March 13 - 16 (All games at the Georgia Dome, Atlanta, GA)
THE TOP GUNS:
No. 1 Seed East – Tennessee Volunteers (28-3 SU / 14-2 SEC)
If you are a history buff, the loop’s top team is hard to like here. Consider the Vols are 0-8 SU and ATS off a Conference Tournament win, 1-8 SU and ATS versus a No.1 or 2 seed and 2-12 SU and 3-11 ATS versus a .620 or greater opponent. Yikes. It’s no wonder they’ve gone one-and-out the last two years. If you find the number, they were 8-0 SU and 4-0 ATS this season when not forced to lay points. Be careful here.
No. 1 Seed West – Mississippi State Bulldogs (21-9 SU / 12-4 SEC)
Here’s a top seed from a major power conference that managed to stay under the radar all season. In other words, our kind of team. The Bulldogs bring along the nations No. 2 ranked defensive field goal percentage unit and No.14 net rebounding bunch into the tourney. Toss in a highly accurate shooting squad (No. 46 in offensive field goal percentage) and you have a well rounded team that can adapt to any situation. They are also 7-0-1 ATS in this tourney against foes off back-to-back SU and ATS wins.
No. 2 Seed East – Kentucky Wildcats (18-11 SU / 12-4 SEC)
It took a while but, unlike John Beinlein at Michigan, the young Wildcats adapted to new coach Billy Gillespie’s playbook and now enter this event with confidence and momentum, usually a deadly combination for most teams this time of the season. They are certainly a team no one in the SEC wants in their path in this event. A history of strong success in this tournament (25 titles and 36-7 SU last 43 games) serves them well once again this year.
No. 2 Seed West – Arkansas Razorbacks (20-10 SU / 9-7 SEC)
Look out for the Pig. We see this five-returning starter team in a sleeper role and that can’t be good for the rest of the league. Sure, the Hogs played like slop down the stretch but, like a hooker dressed to the nines, the dirtier looking they are the more appealing they become. Remember, this same unit lost to Florida in the title game last year. They are 17-3 SU laying points in this tournament.
No. 3 Seed East – Vanderbilt Commodores (25-6 SU / 10-6 SEC)
Yes, the Commodores had a strong season, but they are not the team that opened the year 16-0 (that’s what life in the SEC will do to you). They certainly have firepower, but their spotty history in this tourney keeps us from buying a futures ticket. Especially a gaudy stat that reminds us they are 1-12 SU and 2-11 ATS in this tourney off a spread win of more than three points. Nice team, just not our cup of tea.
THE NEAR MISSES:
No. 3 Seed West – Mississippi Rebels (21-9 SU / 7-9 SEC)
Much like their brothers from Starkville, Ole Miss is another unsung club that stayed under the radar this season - only they did so thanks to the schedule maker. The Rebels opened up 12-0 to start the season, with he majority of wins coming against the Sisters of the Poor. The fact of the matter is they’ve struggled in this tourney, especially against good teams (2-10 SU and ATS versus .678 or greater opposition). No surprise should they get exposed here.
No. 4 Seed East – Florida Gators (21-10 SU / 4-8 SEC)
The defending National Champs, sans the five starters, put up pretty decent numbers for a team this young and inexperienced. Credit goes to head coach Billy Donavon whose teams have won this tournament each of the last three years running (9-0 SU and 7-1-1 ATS since 2005). The Gators are also 8-1 SU and 6-1-2 ATS in their initial SEC tourney tilt. While they won’t be around to complete the grand slam this year, they could add to their strong bank account.
No. 5 Seed West – Alabama Crimson Tide (16-15 SU / 5-11 SEC)
Quickie Quiz: next to Kentucky’s 25 SEC Tournament championships, name the team with the second most titles. Answer: you’re reading about them. The Tide is next on the totem pole with six post-season conference crowns. They will certainly be a long shot to improve on those numbers in this year’s contest. They are 5-1 ATS in this tourney when they own a win percentage of less than .560 on the season. Should they manage to squeeze the orange juice out of Florida they won’t live to see the weekend.
THE VICTIMS:
No. 4 Seed West – LSU Tigers (13-17 SU / 6-10 SEC)
Give this gutsy bunch the credit they deserve. After the surprising departure of head coach John Brady during the season, they refused to throw in the towel. They enter Thursday’s game against South Carolina on a 4-1 SU and 5-0 ATS winning roll. So then why is it they are not on our ‘Near Miss’ list, you ask? Simple. Top seed Tennessee awaits and the Bengals are 7-13-1 ATS taking points in this tourney. Enough said.
No. 5 Seed East – South Carolina Gamecocks (13-17 SU / 5-11 SEC)
Head coach Dave Odom knew coming in it would be a difficult campaign. Off a four-win effort last year, the Gamecocks more than tripled that output, making this a successful season. USC is 9-3 ATS in first games in this tourney but they’ve dropped four in a row to LSU. Like the Tigers, they won’t see the weekend.
No. 6 Seed East – Georgia Bulldogs (13-16 SU / 4-12 SEC)
It was a bummer for Dennis Felton and his Bulldogs this year, to be sure. On the heels of a 19-win effort last year, with four starters back, Georgia figured to be in the hunt in the East Division. Instead, thanks to a 2-11 SU and 4-7-1 ATS season ending skid, they are in a Donkey Game. They are also 3-10 ATS their last thirteen games in this tourney. No thanks.
No. 6 Seed West – Auburn Tigers (14-15 SU / 4-12 SEC)
On paper, the prospects were bright for Auburn this season. With five starters back from a 17-win season last year, there was talk of surprising the West. After dust settled the only ones surprised were the Tigers. Injuries, and a 2-10 finish did them in. Still, they are 6-0 SU and ATS in this tournament when playing off a loss of eight or more points and they have cashed three straight in their series against Vandy (Thursday’s opponent). Let’s see what happens.
PARTING SHOTS:
While Tennessee appears to be the heir apparent to Florida’s three-year grip on the crown, we can’t help but like the chances of defensively stout Mississippi State - should both teams make the title game. Keep this thought in mind: The Vols are 20-0 SU and 12-2-2 ATS in games in which they have scored 80 or more points this season; 8-3 SU and 2-9 ATS when they don’t reach 80. Worse yet, they are 1-24 ATS as a favorite in their last twenty-five games in which they failed to score 80 points. The Bulldogs held 28 of the 30 opponents they faced this season to less than 80 points, including Tennessee.
Big Ten Conference tourney preview and analysis
By MARC LAWRENCE
This year’s Big Ten will be held at Conseco Fieldhouse in Indianapolis from Thursday to Sunday. Let’s take a closer look at the competition:
No. 1 Wisconsin Badgers (26-4 SU / 16-2 Big Ten)
When it comes to defense, Bo Ryan’s troops take a back seat to no one in this conference. Since the inception of this tournament, the Badgers allow just 57 points per game, while never surrendering more than 66 points in any one game. That’s why they’ve played in the title game three of the last four years. While the Big Ten is down a notch or two this season, the teams are still defensively sound, a trait epitomized by the Badgers.
No. 2 Purdue Boilermakers (23-7 SU/ 14-3 Big Ten)
The Boilers posted 20 wins for the second straight year and deserve their No. 2 seeding. The problem we have sucking up with Purdue is their putrid performances in this event in the past: 4-11 SU and 5-10 ATS overall (including 0-7 SU and ATS versus a foe off a win of eight or more points). But the Boilermakers were 10-2 SU and ATS against conference foes off a win this season, indicating – perhaps - a reversal of fortune may be in order.
No. 3 Indiana Hoosiers (25-6 SU/ 14-4 Big Ten)
The Hoosiers are the shakiest-looking 25-win team to come down the pike in a while. The choke job at Penn State to close out the season - blowing the No.2 seed in the process - indicates that Dan is not their man. I don’t know how far they will go under interim mentor Dan Dakich. Indiana is 1-7 SU in this tournament against .666 or better opposition. Thus an early exit would be no surprise in our eyes.
No. 4 Michigan State Spartans (24-7 SU/ 12-6 Big Ten)
Tom Izzo’s Spartans rarely play second fiddle to anyone on defense. MSU is 7-2 ATS against No. 6 or higher seeds in this tourney, and they bring two valued commodities into the post-season: a top-10 ranked rebounding team and a top-20 ranked unit in defensive field-goal percentage. They also bring five starters back from last year’s 23-win team. Look out Big 10, here comes the Izzard of East Lansing.
No. 5 Ohio State Buckeyes (19-12 SU/ 10-8 Big Ten)
The Buckeyes, the runner-up in last year’s NCAA Big Dance Contest, were steady if not spectacular this season. Thanks to a sticky defense that allowed less than 65 points per game, they suffered only five losses by more than seven points this season. They are 4-1 ATS as dogs of more than four points, and 12-2 SU in games in which they surrender less than 70 points in this event. Yeah, they smell like our kind of dog.
No. 6 Minnesota Golden Gophers (18-12 SU/ 8-10 Big Ten)
As tip of the hat to new Minny mentor Tubby Smith, the Gophers doubled their win total to 18 this year from nine last season. The five returning starters who adapted to Smith’s schemes realize they are going to need to reach the coveted 20-win plateau in order to get off the bubble, meaning a pair of wins in this tourney is mandatory. Thus, after disposing of Northwestern Thursday, Friday’s contest will be critical. Having Tubby on the sidelines helps.
No. 7 Penn State Nittany Lions (15-15 SU/ 7-11 Big Ten)
With Sunday’s upset win over Indiana, the never-say-die Lions have put themselves into position to snag a NIT (or a new CBI) invite, should they win at least one more game. The good news is, they’ll be favored to do so in their opening-round game Thursday. The bad news is, they are only 2-9 ATS as conference chalk in games off an underdog win, and just 2-4 SU and ATS in this event versus No. 8 or lower seeds.
No. 8 Iowa Hawkeyes (13-18 SU / 6-12 Big Ten)
Like other struggling first-year head coaches in conference, Todd Lickliter’s maiden voyage with the Hawkeyes met with resistance. Butler’s ex-boss couldn’t win consecutive conference games, and ended the year 6-12 SU -- but 11-7 ATS in Big Ten battles (10-4 as a dog). The feeling is his methodical style, and Iowa’s 6-0 ATS mark as a dog of four or more points in this tourney, gets him some season-ending cabbage.
No. 9 Illinois Fighting Illini (13-18 SU/ 5-13 Big Ten)
Easily the most disappointing team in the loop, the Illini went from a 23-win contender to 13-win pretender this season. Like many bad teams in the league, they suffered from an age-old Indian disease – lack-a-buckets – as Illinois averaged a mere 62 points per game in conference play (57.5 on the road). Until they get healthy, they can’t be trusted.
No. 10 Michigan Wolverines (9-20 SU / 5-13 Big Ten)
Yet another first-year coach who disappointed was John Beilein, former boss man at West Virginia. (Gridiron fanatics are hoping the few football staff doesn’t come with the same DNA.) A 22-win team last year, the Wolves did not take to Beilein’s playbook during his debut season. A loss last week against Penn State snapped a 10-game series win skein against the Lions. They warrant a look in the rematch.
No. 11 Northwestern Wildcats (8-21 SU/ 1-17 Big Ten)
We’ll soon learn why the phrase “one-and-done” applies to the Wildcats. A winner of only one of its last 24 conference games, Northwestern has reverted back to its losing ways in Big Ten play. The only saving grace for the Wildcats is the fact they’re 4-1 ATS in this tourney as a double-digit dog when seeking revenge. That a $4 will get you a gallon of gas these days.
The Big Ten appears down this year. That’s confirmed by the fact teams were just 31-31 SU and 23-35-3 ATS outside the conference against winning opposition this season. In conference play, double-digit favorites were 32-2 SU but only 12-22 ATS, including 8-19 off a win. Be careful laying any kind of lumber in this low-scoring circuit.