Conference Tournament Pointspread Tendencies
By Steve Makinen
As with any other type of game in college basketball betting, certain trends or tendencies form in the conference tournaments. These annual events are loaded with tradition and offer, in some cases, nearly identical circumstances from one year to the next. This is the type of foundation from which successful betting systems are built. Think about it, in many leagues, some of the teams, depending upon their seedings, will play at home. In other leagues, all the games are in a neutral environment. Some of the games are on multiple consecutive days, while in others, the schedules tend to favor the better teams. It all adds up to what should be a goldmine of data from which to dig. Let's see what we can uncover for this first group of conference tournaments starting this week. Next week, I'll be back to cover more of the major conferences.
Horizon League
Since 06, FAVORITES have held the upper hand in Horizon League Tournament games, going 21-12 ATS (63.6%).
Horizon League FAVORITES playing on their home court in the conference tournament are 15-7 ATS (68.2%) since 06.
The last 20 Horizon League Tournament FAVORITES of 7-points or more have won outright and are 14-6 ATS (70%).
Horizon League tournament games have been high scoring than expected of late, with the OVER the total going 21-13 (61.7%) over the L4 seasons.
Ohio Valley Conference
UNDERDOGS have held a slight edge in the last five seasons of Ohio Valley Conference Tournament action, going 18-15 ATS (54.5%).
The most successful UNDERDOGS in the OVC tournament are those that reach the semifinal round, as they are 5-5 SU & 7-3 ATS (70%) since 05, including 3-1 SU & 4-0 ATS the L2 years.
Only one UNDERDOG of 6.5-points or more has pulled an upset in the OVC Tournament since 02, going 1-27 SU. However, these teams are 14-14 ATS (50%).
Missouri Valley Conference
The Missouri Valley Conference has seen some significant trends develop by round. In the Opening Round games, UNDERDOGS are a profitable 11-11 SU & 14-8 ATS (63.6%) since 98. In the Quarterfinals, FAVORITES turn the tables, 14-6 ATS (70%) over the last five seasons.
There have been 11 instances since 04 where a LOWER SEEDED MVC tourney team was FAVORED. They are just 3-8 SU & ATS (27.3%) in that span.
Large FAVORITES, or those laying 7-points or more have been very successful in the MVC tourney of late, 16-0 SU & 10-6 ATS (62.5%) since 02.
Since the MVC Tournament games started having totals on every contest (05), the UNDER the total has dominated at a 30-15 (66.7%) rate.
Colonial Athletic Association
The Colonial Athletic Association tournament has shown some strong trends dependent upon the round of play. In the Quarterfinals, UNDERDOGS are just 5-15 SU but on a 13-7 ATS (65%) run over the L5 seasons. In the Championship, the FAVORITE has won nine straight games while going 6-2-1 ATS (75%).
DOUBLE-DIGIT UNDERDOGS have been an unbelievable cover in the CAA tournament of late, going 2-15 SU but 15-2 ATS (88.2%) since 03.
FAVORITES of less than 10-points have also been a highly profitable bet in the CAA tournament since 02, going 40-19 ATS (67.8%).
UNDER has been the flavor of choice on totals for CAA tournament games, with a bankroll-building 37-17 (68.5%) mark since 04.
Sun Belt Conference
Like a few of the other conferences already discussed, the Sun Belt Conference has shown some distinctive tendencies by round. In the opening round, UNDERDOGS have covered eight of 10 games (80%) over the L2 years. In the semifinals, FAVORITES are on a run of 7-3 ATS.
SMALL FAVORITES of 3-points or less have produced a 16-9 ATS (64%) record in the Sun Belt Conference Tournament since 02.
Totals have shown a favoritism towards the OVER in the L5 Sun Belt Conference tournaments, going 35-20 (63.6%).
Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference
FAVORITES have had their way in the opening round of the Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference tournament of late, going 10-4-1 ATS (71.4%) since 04.
UNDERDOGS of 4.5-points or more have only won five of the L44 MAAC tournament opportunities they've had while going 18-25-1 ATS (41.9%).
Where offense has ruled the day in the MAAC Semifinals (7-1 OVER L4 years), defense has taken over the title game (6-1 UNDER L7).
Southern Conference
Despite a 3-7 ATS mark in the 2007 Southern Conference Tournament, UNDERDOGS have held the upper hand in the league postseason proceedings, going 26-21 ATS (55.3%) since 05.
The early Southern Conference Tournament action has shown the most distinctive trends forming, with FAVORITES 18-10 ATS (64.3%) since 2, and the UNDER 14-3 (82.3%) since 04 in the Opening Round.
Those favorites that survive the Opening Round of the Southern Conference Tournament also tend to fare well in the Quarterfinals, as UNDERDOGS in that round are on a 12-6 ATS (66.7%) run since 05.
Like the CAA, Southern Conference Tournament games have shown a strong UNDER tendency, going 36-17 (67.9%) on that side of the total since 05.
West Coast Conference
The West Coast Conference Tournament has been dominated by FAVORITES since 98 to the tune of a 55-28 ATS (66.3%) record.
FAVORITES own the edge in every round of the West Coast Conference Tournament over the L12 seasons, highlighted by a 10-3 ATS (76.9%) record in Round One.
Neutral court FAVORITES of 7-points or more are 27-0 SU & 19-8 ATS (70.4%) in the WCC tournament since 98.
Oddsmakers have hinted which games in the WCC tournament have been high scoring, as on those with totals of 146 or higher since 01, OVER the total is 10-1 (90.9%).
Big Sky Conference
The Big Sky Conference has shown a shift to FAVORITES in the last three seasons, as those teams laying points have converted 10 of the 15 (66.7%) games during that stretch.
There have only been two upsets in the Big Sky Conference tournament semifinals over the last seven years, and FAVORITES are 10-4 ATS (71.4%) in that span.
The Big Sky Conference is one of few where LARGE UNDERDOGS, or those getting 7-points or more, have a good shot at an upset, owning a 4-8 SU & 8-4 ATS record since O8, including 2-2 SU & 4-0 ATS over the L2 years.
FAVORITES in the -4 to -6.5-point line range have been nearly automatic in Big Sky Conference tournament action, 16-1 SU & 15-2 ATS (88.2%).
Summit League
This years Summit League Tournament will be the first one where games beyond the championship will be lined. In the previous two title games, the FAVORITE is 2-0 SU & 1-1 ATS.
Mid-American Conference
FAVORITES are the preferred betting choice in MAC tournament games in recent years, with a record of 40-26 ATS (60.6%) over the L6 seasons.
The MAC title game has seen the FAVORITE go 9-3 SU & ATS (75%) since its inception. The straight up winner is 12-0 ATS.
Semifinal FAVORITES in the MAC tournament have swept the last three years of action and are 5-1 ATS (83%) in that span.
The best spot for playing UNDERDOGS in the MAC tournament has proven to be in games when the lines are 3-points or less. In such cases, they are 23-16 ATS (59%) since 98.
OVER the total has been the preferred choice on that wagering option since 04, with a 37-24 (60.7%) record since 04.