Conference Tourney Notes
By Bruce Marshall
VegasInsider.com
Following is our annual look at conference tourneys and chances of the "board" conferences sending multiple entries to the NCAA Tournament. Teams have been divided the teams into three categories -- Solid, Looking Good, and Bubble.
Solid is self-explanatory.
Looking Good teams can expect an NCAA invitation as long as they don't slump badly in the next few weeks.
Bubble teams, however, remain at the mercy of the Tournament Committee, and desperately need every win down the stretch to keep their Big Dance hopes alive.
(We're a bit generous in the "bubble" designation, with teams expected to enter the conversation even briefly granted such status.)
Keep in mind that EVERY Division I team can now qualify for an automatic Big Dance berth by winning its conference tournament. With the Ivy League finally relenting and adding its own four-team tourney, every conference now has a postseason event. In the meantime, as always, the number of upsets in conference tournaments can alter the look of the Big Dance.
Also included below are conference tournament sites and dates; Conference Power Rankings (thru Feb. 22); and last year's postseason participants, including NCAA, NIT, CBI, CIT, and VEGAS 16/8 action.
Note that when referencing last year's NCAA Tourney, we have reverted to the new/old designations, wherein the play-in games are referred to as the First Four, the sub-regionals referred to as the first and second rounds, etc., as the NCAA thankfully changed back to its former designations a year ago.
AMERICAN
Solid...Cincinnati.
Looking Good...SMU.
Bubble...Houston.
Conference Power Rating: 7th.
Tournament Date-Site-Venue: March 9-12 at XL Center, Hartford, CT.
Last year...NCAA-4 (UConn-2nd round, Cincinnati, Temple, Tulsa-First Four); NIT-1 (Houston).
Notes...The American looks a bit less crowded this season, likely just a 2-bid league unless SMU or Cincinnati don't win in Hartford. Houston is still hanging on to the edge of the bubble as March approaches.
ACC
Solid...North Carolina, Florida State, Duke, Virginia, Louisville, Notre Dame.
Looking Good...Miami-Fla., Syracuse, Virginia Tech.
Bubble...Georgia Tech, Wake Forest, Clemson.
Conference Power Rating: 1st.
Tournament Date-Site-Venue: March 7-11 at Barclays Center, Brooklyn, NY.
Last year...NCAA-7 (North Carolina-Runner-up, Syracuse-Final Four, Virginia-Elite Eight, Notre Dame-Elite Eight, Duke-Sweet 16, Miami-Fla.-Sweet 16, Pittsburgh). NIT-3 (Georgia Tech-Quarterfinals, Virginia Tech-2nd round, Florida State-2nd round).
Notes...Could the ACC match the Big East from six years ago as the most-heavily represented loop (11) in NCAA Tournament history? Note the first-ever foray into the Big Apple with the conference Tourney in Brooklyn.
ATLANTIC TEN
Looking Good...Dayton, Virginia Commonwealth.
Bubble...Rhode Island.
Conference Power Rating: 8th.
Tournament Date-Site-Venue: March 8-12 at PPG Paints Arena, Pittsburgh, PA, home of NHL Penguins.
Last year...NCAA-3 (Saint Joseph's-2nd round, Virginia Commonwealth-2nd round, Dayton); NIT-3 (George Washington-Champion, Davidson, St. Bonaventure); CBI-1 (Duquesene-2nd round); CIT-1 (Fordham).
Notes...Like the American, the A-10 has the look of a 2-bid league with Dayton and VCU, while Rhode Island gamely hangs on to the bubble into late February. The tournament moves to Pittsburgh this season after recent years at Barclay's Center in Brooklyn.
BIG EAST
Solid...Villanova, Creighton, Butler.
Bubble...Marquette, Seton Hall, Xavier.
Conference Power Rating: 3rd.
Tournament Date-Site-Venue: March 8-11 at Madison Square Garden, New York City, NY.
Last year...NCAA-5 (Villanova-Champion, Butler-2nd round, Providence-2nd round, Xavier-2nd round, Seton Hall). NIT-1 (Creighton-Quarterfinals).
Notes...Seton Hall helped its at-large cause greatly with its recent wins over Creighton and Xavier, with the latter result a bit worrying for the Musketeers, now minus key cog Edmond Sumner and faltering of late. So we've moved the "X" from Looking Good into Bubble status. Georgetown now seems officially off of the bubble after its midweek home loss to DePaul.
BIG TEN
Solid...Wisconsin, Maryland, Purdue.
Looking Good...Northwestern, Minnesota, Michigan, Michigan State.
Bubble... Illinois.
Conference Power Rating: 4th.
Tournament Date-Site-Venue: March 8-12 at Verizon Center, Washington, D.C.
Last year...NCAA-7 (Indiana-Sweet 16, Maryland-Sweet 16, Wisconsin-Sweet 16, Iowa-2nd round, Michigan, Michigan State, Purdue); NIT-1 (Ohio State-2nd round).
Notes...The Big Ten is generating plenty of discussion, especially with a Big Dance regular like Indiana looking to have slipped off of the bubble. Though wobbling a bit down the stretch, this also looks to be the year that Northwestern makes its first-ever Dance appearance. Northwestern in and Indiana out, eh? Note that the Tourney moves out of the Midwest for the first time, landing at the Verizon Center in Washington, D.C., where Maryland will have a regional edge.
BIG 12
Solid...Kansas, Baylor, Iowa State, West Virginia.
Looking Good...Oklahoma State.
Bubble...Kansas State, TCU, Texas Tech.
Conference Power Rating: 2nd.
Tournament Date-Site-Venue: March 8-11 at Sprint Center, Kansas City, MO.
Last year...NCAA-7 (Oklahoma-Final Four, Kansas-Elite Eight, Iowa State-Sweet 16, Baylor, Texas, Texas Tech, West Virginia).
Notes...The Big 12 will again be well-represented in the Dance, with several of its candidates likely riding the bubble all the way into Selection Sunday. Though Baylor's chances of landing on the top line have taken a couple of hits in recent weeks, Kansas still looks a good bet for a top seed in the Midwest Regional.
BIG WEST
Conference Tournament winner will be only Big Dance rep.
Conference Power Rating: 30th.
Tournament Date-Site-Venue: March 9-11 at Honda Center, Anaheim, CA (home of the NHL Ducks).
Last year...NCAA-1 (Hawaii-2nd round); NIT-1 (Long Beach State); CIT-1 (UC Irvine-Runner-up); VEGAS 16/8 (UC Santa Barbara).
Notes...For what would be only the second time since the at-large play-in games were initiated, the Big West could be involved in one of those 16 vs. 16 First Four games in Dayton.
COLONIAL
Bubble...NC-Wilmington.
Conference Power Rating: 12th.
Tournament Date-Site-Venue: March 3-6 at North Charleston Coliseum, Charleston, SC (not the home of College of Charleston, which plays at TD Arena).
Last year...NCAA-1 (NC-Wilmington); NIT-1 (Hofstra); VEGAS 16/8 (Towson).
Notes...UNCW's at-large candidacy was greatly reduced by losses vs. William & Mary, Charleston & Elon within the past four weeks. The Seahawks will almost assuredly have to win the CAA Tourney to gain passage to the Big Dance. After three years at Baltimore's Royal Farms Arena, once known as Baltimore Civic Center in the '60s and early '70s when it was the home of the NBA Baltimore Bullets, the conference tournament begins a three-year stint in Charleston.
CONFERENCE USA
Bubble...Middle Tennessee.
Conference Power Rating: 22nd.
Tournament Date-Site-Venue: March 8-12 at Legacy Arena, Birmingham, AL (not the home court of UAB, which plays at Gene Bartow Arena).
Last year...NCAA-1 (Middle Tennessee-2nd round); NIT-1 (UAB); VEGAS 16/8 (Old Dominion-Champion, La Tech).
Notes...MTSU appears to be one of the few mid-majors with a chance at a Big Dance at-large bid if it does not win its conference tourney.
HORIZON
Bubble...Valparaiso.
Conference Power Rating: 19th.
Tournament Date-Site-Venue: March 3-7 at Joe Louis Arena, Detroit, MI.
Last year...NCAA-1 (Green Bay); NIT-1 (Valparaiso-Runner-up); VEGAS 16/8 (Oakland-Runner-up).
Notes...After last Friday's loss to Oakland, and surrendering top seed at "the Joe" to the Golden Grizzlies, Valpo might have already played itself off of the edge of the bubble. After years of being conducted at campus sites, the Horizon Tournament begins a second year in Detroit at the soon-to-close Joe Louis Arena, home of the NHL Red Wings. Next year, the Tourney is slated to move into the new Detroit Events Center, currently under construction.
IVY
Conference Tourney winner will be only Big Dance rep.
Conference Power Rating: 20th.
Tournament Date-Site-Venue: March 11-12 at the Palestra, Philadelphia, PA (home court of Penn).
Last year...NCAA-1 (Yale-2nd round); NIT-1 (Princeton); CIT-1 (Columbia-Champion).
Notes...The Ivy finally relents with its first-ever tourney, which will include the top four teams and takes place at the Palestra in Philadelphia. Though the Ivy has had an unofficial playoff of sorts a couple of times in recent years with one-game playoffs after ties for the regular-season crown. Princeton, Harvard, and Yale currently appear very good bets to land three of the four slots at the Palestra.
MID-AMERICAN
Bubble...Akron.
Conference Power Rating: 13th.
Tournament Date-Site-Venue: first round March 6 at campus sites; quarters, semis, and Final March 9-11 at Quicken Loans Arena, Cleveland, OH.
Last year...NCAA-1 (Buffalo); NIT-1 (Akron); CIT-2 (Ball State-Quarterfinals, Central Michigan); CBI-1 (Ohio-Semifinals); VEGAS 16/8-1 (Northern Illinois).
Notes...The MAC has not sent multiple teams to the Big Dance since 1999, when Kent State and Miami-Ohio qualified. That's not likely to change, as top at-large contender Akron just suffered a trio of damaging losses the past three weeks, and has yet to notch a Top-100 win this season.
MISSOURI VALLEY
Looking Good...Wichita State.
Bubble...Illinois State.
Conference Power Rating: 11th.
Tournament Date-Site-Venue: ("Arch Madness") March 2-5 at Scottrade Center, St. Louis, MO.
Last year...NCAA-2 (Wichita State-2nd round, Northern Iowa-2nd round).
Notes...After years as the flagship mid-major conference, the Valley has been a one-bid league at times in recent seasons and might be again this year unless some rep other than Wichita wins at "Arch Madness" in two weeks. Other than the Shockers, who appear a near-certainty into the field of 68, Illinois State is the only other Valley rep that would be under consideration for an at-large on Selection Sunday.
MOUNTAIN WEST
Bubble...Nevada.
Conference Power Rating: 9th.
Tournament Date-Site-Venue: March 8-11 at Thomas & Mack Center, Las Vegas, NV (home court of UNLV).
Last year...NCAA-1 (Fresno State); NIT-1 (San Diego State-semifinals); CBI-1 (Nevada-Champion).
Notes...How the mighty (or near-mighty) have fallen, as the MW is almost certainly a one-bid league for the second straight year. Last year was the first time the league received only one Big Dance bid since its inception in 1999. As recently as 2013, the Mountain was a five-bid league!
Pac-12
Solid...Arizona, Oregon, UCLA.
Looking Good...Southern Cal, Cal.
Bubble...Utah.
Conference Power Rating: 6th.
Tournament Date-Site-Venue: March 8-11 at T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas, NV.
Last year...NCAA-7 (Oregon-Elite Eight, Utah-2nd round, Arizona, Cal, Colorado, Southern Cal, Oregon State); NIT-1 (Washington-2nd round).
Notes...A very good chance there will be three Pac-10 protected seeds (Oregon, Arizona, and UCLA) in the Dance. After a four-year run at the MGM Grand Garden, the Pac-12 Tourney moves across the street on the Strip in Vegas to the brand-new T-Mobile Arena, which will also be the home ice of the NHL expansion Golden Knights starting in October.
SEC
Solid...Florida, Kentucky, South Carolina.
Looking Good...Arkansas.
Bubble...Alabama, Georgia, Tennessee, Vanderbilt.
Conference Power Rating: 5th.
Tournament Date-Site-Venue: March 8-12 at Bridgestone Arena, Nashville, TN (home of the NHL Predators).
Last year...NCAA-3 (Texas A&M-Sweet 16, Kentucky-2nd round, Vanderbilt-First Four); NIT-4 (Florida-Quarterfinals, Georgia-2nd round, South Carolina-2nd round, Alabama).
Notes...We're stretching the bubble to include the likes of Vandy and Tennessee, though we believe the SEC will do a bit better than the mere three entries it received to the Dance last March.
SUN BELT
Bubble...UT-Arlington.
Conference Power Rating: 15th.
Tournament Date-Site-Venue: March 8-12 at Lakefront Arena, New Orleans, LA.
Last year...NCAA-1 (Little Rock-2nd round); CIT-3 (UL-Lafayette-2nd round, UT-Arlington-2nd round, ULM).
Notes....The Belt has not been a multi-bid league since 2008, when Western Kentucky and South Alabama qualified, and is likely not going to be again this season, though UTA could at least enter the at-large conversation with the Selection Committee if the Movin' Mavs make the final and lose in the Belt Tourney at New Orleans.
WEST COAST
Solid...Gonzaga, Saint Mary's.
Conference Power Rating: 12th.
Tournament Date-Site-Venue: March 3-8 at Orleans Hotel Arena, Las Vegas, NV.
Last year...NCAA-1 (Gonzaga-Sweet 16; NIT-2 (BYU-Seminfinals, Saint Mary's-2nd round); CBI-1 (Pepperdine).
Notes...The only likely intrigue at the WCC tournament will be if Gonzaga can maintain its stellar record and enter the Dance as the top overall seed, though the "pre-selection" shows seem to indicate the Committee is more likely to merely award the Zags with the top seed in the West Regional...if Mark Few's team stays with just one loss, that is. After several near-misses in recent years, Saint Mary's will not have to sweat its bid this Selection Sunday.
Included below is tournament info for the remainder of the D-I conferences, with any clear-cut favorite accompanied by an *.
AMERICA EAST
Tournament Date-Site-Venue: March 1, 6, and 11 at home of highest seed for each matchup. Top eight teams qualify. Vermont enters as the top seed. UMass-Lowell is in its final year of a four-year transition period from Div. II and is ineligible for the conference tournament.
Top contenders: Vermont*, Stony Brook, UMBC, Albany, New Hampshire.
Last year...NCAA-1 (Stony Brook); CIT-1 (New Hampshire-2nd round); CBI-2 (Vermont-Semifinals, Albany).
ATLANTIC SUN
Tournament Date-Site-Venue: February 27, March 2, and 5 at home of highest seed for each matchup. Florida Gulf Coast has earned the top seed and home edge in the A-Sun Tourney.
Top contenders: Florida Gulf Coast, Lipscomb, SC-Upstate.
Last year...NCAA-1 (Florida Gulf Coast); NIT-1 (North Florida); CIT-1 (NJIT-Semifinals).
BIG SKY
Tournament Date-Site-Venue: March 6-11 at Reno Events Center, Reno, NV (home of NBA-DL Bighorns).
Top contenders: North Dakota, Weber State, Eastern Washington.
Last year...NCAA-1 (Weber State); CBI-3 (Eastern Washington-Quarterfinals, Idaho, Montana); CIT-1 (North Dakota).
BIG SOUTH
Tournament Date-Site-Venue: Feb. 28, March 2-3, 5. First round at campus sites, quarterfinals and semifinals at home of No. 1 seed. Highest remaining seed will host championship game.
Top contenders: UNC-Asheville, Winthrop, Liberty, Gardner-Webb.
Last year...NCAA-1 (UNC-Asheville); NIT-1 (High Point); CIT-1 (Coastal Carolina-Quarterfinals).
METRO ATLANTIC
Tournament Date-Site-Venue: March 2-6 at Trans Union Center, Albany, NY. The top five seeds gets byes into the quarterfinals; seeds 6 thru 11 compete in a play-in round.
Top contenders: Monmouth, St. Peter's, Iona, Siena, Canisius.
Last year...NCAA-1 (Iona); NIT-1 (Monmouth-2nd round); CBI-1 (Siena); CIT-1 (Fairfield).
MEAC
Tournament Date-Site-Venue: March 6-11 at The Scope, Norfolk, VA (former part-time home of the ABA Virginia Squires; not the home court of Norfolk State, which plays its games at Echols Hall).
Top contenders: NC Central, Norfolk State, Hampton, Morgan State.
Last year...NCAA-1 (Hampton); CIT-3 (Norfolk State, Savannah State, South Carolina State).
NORTHEAST
Tournament Date-Site-Venue: March 1, 4 and 7 at home of highest seed for each matchup. Mount Saint Mary's or Long Island will be the top seed.
Top contenders: Mount Saint Mary's, Long Island, Wagner.
Last year...NCAA-1 (Fairleigh Dickinson); NIT-1 (Wagner).
OHIO VALLEY
Tournament Date-Site-Venue: March 1-4 at Municipal Auditorium, Nashville, TN (not the home court of Nashville-based Tennessee State, which plays its games at the Gentry Complex, or Nashville-based Belmont, which plays its games at the Mike Curb Events Center).
Top contenders: Belmont*, UT Martin, Murray State.
Last year...NCAA-1 (Austin Peay); NIT-1 (Belmont); CIT-2 (UT Martin-2nd round, Tennessee State); CBI-1 (Morehead State-runner-up); VEGAS 16/8-1 (Tennessee Tech).
PATRIOT
Tournament Date-Site-Venue: February 28, March 2, 5, and 8, all at home of higher seed for each matchup. Bucknell is the top seed. Top four seeds receive byes in first round.
Top contenders: Bucknell*, Lehigh, Boston University, Navy.
Last year...NCAA-1 (Holy Cross); NIT-1 (Bucknell); CIT-2 (Boston U-2nd round, Army).
SOUTHERN
Tournament Date-Site-Venue: March 3-6 at U.S. Cellular Center, Asheville, NC. Top six seeds receive bye in first round.
Top contenders: East Tennessee State, Furman, NC-Greensboro, Chattanooga, Wofford.
Last year...NCAA-1 (Chattanooga); CBI-2 (NC Greensboro-Quaterfinals, Western Carolina); CIT-2 (Furman-2nd round, Mercer); VEGAS 16/8-1 (East Tennessee State-Semifinals).
SOUTHLAND
Tournament Date-Site-Venue: March 7-12 at Merrell Center, Katy, TX. Top eight teams qualify. Incarnate Word and Abilene Christian are still in their transitional period from D-II to D-I and are ineligible for the conference tournament, though can participate in the NIT, CBI, or CIT.
Top contenders: New Orleans, Stephen F. Austin, Texas A&M-Corpus Christi, Sam Houston.
Last year...NCAA-1 (Stephen F. Austin-2nd round); CIT-2 (Sam Houston, Texas A&M-Corpus Christi); CBI-1 (Houston Baptist).
SWAC
Tournament Date-Site-Venue: March 7, 10-11 at Toyota Center, Houston, TX.
Top contenders: Texas Southern, Alcorn State, Southern.
Last year...NCAA-1 (Southern-First Four); NIT-1 (Texas Southern); CIT-1 (Jackson St.-2nd round).
SUMMIT
Tournament Date-Site-Venue: March 4-7 at the Denny Sanford PREMIER Center, Sioux Falls, SD (not the home court of nearby, Brookings-based South Dakota State, which plays its home games at Frost Arena, or nearby, Vermillion-based South Dakota, which plays its home games at the Dakota Dome). The Summit League was formerly known as Mid-Continent Conference.
Top contenders: North Dakota State, South Dakota, Denver, Fort Wayne, Omaha.
Last year...NCAA-1 (South Dakota State); NIT-1 (Fort Wayne); CBI-1 (Omaha).
WAC
Tournament Date-Site-Venue: March 8-11 at Orleans Arena, Las Vegas, NV. Grand Canyon remains in its transition period from Division II and will be ineligible for the conference tournament, but can participate in the NIT, CBI, or CIT. Top seed receives a bye into semifinals.
Top contenders: CS Bakersfield, New Mexico State, UMKC.
Last year...NCAA-1 (CS Bakersfield); NIT-1 (New Mexico State); CIT-1 (Seattle-2nd round).
Conference Championship Odds
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“Championship Week” for the major college basketball conferences takes place during the week of March 5 through 12 and bettors can start placing wagers on the select tournaments.
Odds per Sportsbook.ag
Odds to win 2017 ACC Tournament (3/12/17)
North Carolina 7/4
Louisville 3/1
Duke 4/1
Florida State 13/2
Virginia 17/2
Notre Dame 11/1
Syracuse 14/1
Miami 22/1
Clemson 50/1
Virginia Tech 50/1
Wake Forest 50/1
NC State 80/1
Pittsburgh 80/1
Georgia Tech 100/1
Boston College 200/1
2016 Winner: North Carolina
Odds to win 2017 AAC Tournament (3/11/17)
Cincinnati 6/5
SMU 7/5
Houston 4/1
Connecticut 8/1
Central Florida 20/1
Memphis 22/1
Temple 50/1
Tulsa 50/1
East Carolina 100/1
Tulane 150/1
South Florida 200/1
2016 Winner: Connecticut
Odds to win 2017 Big 12 Conference Tournament (3/11/17)
Kansas 10/11
West Virginia 9/4
Baylor 19/4
Iowa State 27/4
Oklahoma State 12/1
Kansas State 28/1
Oklahoma 33/1
TCU 35/1
Texas 35/1
Texas Tech 35/1
2016 Winner: Kansas
Odds to win 2017 Big East Conference Tournament (3/11/17)
Villanova 10/13
Butler 2/1
Creighton 11/2
Marquette 12/1
Xavier 12/1
Seton Hall 20/1
Georgetown 25/1
Providence 28/1
St Johns 65/1
DePaul 200/1
2016 Winner: Seton Hall
Odds to win 2017 Big Ten Conference Tournament (3/12/17)
Purdue 3/2
Wisconsin 11/5
Maryland 6/1
Michigan 10/1
Minnesota 10/1
Michigan State 14/1
Indiana 16/1
Northwestern 16/1
Iowa 30/1
Ohio State 35/1
Illinois 50/1
Nebraska 60/1
Penn State 60/1
Rutgers 150/1
2016 Winner: Michigan State
Odds to win 2017 Pac-12 Conference Tournament (3/11/17)
UCLA 8/5
Oregon 9/5
Arizona 11/5
California 12/1
Utah 16/1
USC 18/1
Colorado 30/1
Stanford 50/1
Arizona State 70/1
Washington 125/1
Washington State 125/1
Oregon State 200/1
2016 Winner: Oregon
Odds to win 2017 SEC Tournament (3/12/17)
Kentucky 1/1
Florida 7/5
South Carolina 10/1
Georgia 14/1
Arkansas 15/1
Mississippi 28/1
Tennessee 28/1
Vanderbilt 30/1
Alabama 35/1
Texas A&M 35/1
Auburn 50/1
Mississippi State 60/1
Missouri 150/1
LSU 200/1
2016 Winner: Kentucky
Championship Angles
By Marc Lawrence
VegasInsider.com
Cutting Down The Nets: College Conference Championship Games
It’s Championship Week and with it the reward of a ticket to the Big Dance to all the teams who will be cutting down the nets immediately after their conference tournament championship game.
Before knee jerking and playing on teams in title games that on paper look to be the better squad, instead pay close attention to these four College Conference Championship Game moneymaking scenarios. You could end up padding your NCAA Tournament bankroll.
Note: All results are prior to this year’s tourneys and are since 1990
(SU - Straight Up, ATS - Against the Spread)
Size Matters
Having been there and done that goes a long way toward a team’s success in conference title games.
That’s confirmed by the fact that team who won 27 or more games the previous season use that weight to their advantage, going 85-65-3 ATS in these affairs.
Put them up against a No. 4 or lower seed and they improve to 35-6 SU and 28-12-1 ATS, including 18-1 SU and 17-2 ATS if they defeated their lightweight opponent in a most recent contest.
Ain’t No Stopping Us Now
Momentum can carry a team a long way, especially when they arrive to the championship game of their conference tourney.
No. 1 or 2 seeded favorites that enter off three wins in a row by an average win margin of 20 PPG or better are 19-2 SU and 17-4 ATS, including a jaw-dropping 15-1 both SU and ATS since 2000.
Home Teams in Title Games – Use Them, Don’t Abuse Them
Home is where the heart is. It’s also where the money is in championship games. That’s confirmed by the fact that ‘on-board’ teams are 40-17 SU and 30-25-2 ATS.
If this home advantaged team lost one or fewer games at home on the season they improve to 24-1 SU and 16-8-1 ATS, including 16-1 SU and 13-3-1 ATS if they are hosting a No.1 or No. 2 seeded opponent.
Dogs With a Higher Win Percentage Have Little to No Bite
As rare as it may seem, teams with the better record are not always favored in Championship Games. So when the linemakers install the opponent with an inferior win percentage the favorite in the game he’s knows what he’s doing.
That’s because underdogs with a better win percentage are just 7-18 ATS in these games following an ATS win. And if these dogs are No. 1 seeds taking on No. 2 or lowers seeds they practically disappear, gong 1-8 SUATS in these title games.
There you have it, four time-tested Championship Game theories to ponder for Championship Week.
Betting this week's NCAAB conference tournaments
By Patrick Everson
Covers.com
After a week of mid-major conference tournament delirium, college basketball’s big boys hit the hardwoods for their conference tourneys this week. The six major hoops conferences are all in action, with no shortage of blue bloods aiming for high seeds in the NCAA Tournament, including UCLA, North Carolina, Kansas, Duke, Kentucky and more. And of course, there’s defending national champion Villanova.
It can be harder to follow the huge wave of games across the country this week than it is to keep up with the first two days of the NCAA Tournament. Covers gives you a hand with your handicapping, providing the favorites to win and underdog alerts on each of big six tournaments, along with a trio of noteworthy mid-major tourneys also taking place this week.
America Athletic (March 9-12)
Favorite: Southern Methodist Mustangs (27-4, 17-1) – The Mustangs nearly went unblemished in conference play, with the only setback a 66-64 defeat as a 5-point underdog at No. 2 seed Cincinnati on Jan. 12. SMU hasn’t lost since, peeling off 13 consecutive SU wins while going a stout 11-1-1 ATS in that stretch. In fact, SMU is No. 1 in the nation with a 20-5-1 ATS record. Semi Ojeleye leads the Ponies at 18.5 ppg, though four other players are averaging at or near double figures. But SMU’s defense may be the real story, allowing just 59.4 ppg (third nationally), while the Mustangs’ scoring average is 74.6 ppg.
Underdog: Central Florida Knights (20-10, 11-7) – The fourth-seeded Knights are playing some of their best ball of late, closing the regular season with five straight victories, including a 53-49 home win over No. 2 seed Cincinnati. Central Florida is No. 1 in the nation in field-goal defense, allowing opponents to shoot just 36.1 percent, and the Knights yield 60.5 ppg, just behind SMU at fourth nationally.
Atlantic 10 (March 8-12)
Favorite: Dayton Flyers (24-6, 15-3) – The Flyers made a great late-season run, and needed to in order to overtake Virginia Commonwealth for the top seed. Dayton beat VCU 79-72 as a 4.5-point home favorite last week for its ninth consecutive win and 12th in 13 games (10-3 ATS). That rendered Saturday’s regular-season finale moot, which was fortunate, since Dayton lost at George Washington 87-81 as a 4-point fave.
Underdog: Rhode Island Rams (21-9, 13-5) – No. 3 seed Rhode Island is definitely a live ‘dog after winning five in a row and nine of its last 11 games (7-4 ATS) to cap the regular season. That included a 69-59 win over No. 2 seed VCU as a 3.5-point favorite on Feb. 25, and Saturday’s 73-70 overtime win against Davidson laying 7 points.
Atlantic Coast (March 7-11)
Favorite: North Carolina Tar Heels (26-6, 14-4) – Carolina is definitely at the head of a very competitive ACC class this year, finishing out its regular season with a 90-83 home win over Duke as a 7-point chalk Saturday night. The Tar Heels average 85.0 ppg (11th) with an array of scorers, led by forward Joel Jackson’s 18.4 ppg. But where Roy Williams’ troops really get it done is on the glass, with the No. 1 rebounding margin in the country (40.1 for/27.8 against).
Underdog: Notre Dame Fighting Irish (23-8, 12-6) – Duke is actually seeded fifth for the ACC tourney, but it’s hard to call such a blue blood an underdog. Plus, as Covers Expert Zack Cimini pointed out, Mike Krzyzewski often isn’t looking to grind his way through the whole conference tournament – Duke has only one ACC title game appearance in the last five seasons. So we’re going with third-seeded Notre Dame, which had won six in a row before falling at Louisville on Saturday, 71-64 as a 7.5-point underdog. Potentially key stat: The Irish lead the nation in free-throw shooting, at 80.9 percent.
Big East (March 8-11)
Favorite: Villanova Wildcats (28-3, 15-3) – It’s pretty hard to ignore the defending national champions, who won the regular-season conference title by three games over Butler – despite losing both meetings with the second-seeded Bulldogs. Guard Josh Hart leads the way at 18.7 ppg, followed by guard Jalen Brunson (14.8 ppg), forward Kris Jenkins (13.4 ppg) and guard Mikal Bridges (10.6 ppg). All four were part of last year’s title run, so the ‘Cats have plenty of championship-level experience. Villanova is also 11th nationally in scoring margin, at 14.1 ppg.
Underdog: Providence Friars (20-11, 10-8 ) – Pretty much everybody in this league is an underdog to Villanova, but the fourth-seeded Friars have the best form of late. Providence has won six in a row (5-1 ATS), playing its way up to the third seed and live ‘dog status in a run that included victories over Butler, Creighton and a surging Seton Hall squad.
Big Ten (March 8-12)
Favorite: Purdue Boilermakers (25-6, 14-4) – There’s no superteam in the Big Ten this year, but Purdue is the best of the bunch and is playing well heading into the conference tournament. The Boilermakers, 8-1 SU in their last nine, are led by double-double machine Caleb Swanigan, a 6-foot-9 forward averaging 18.6 ppg and 12.5 rpg. Four teammates also average double-figure scoring, and Purdue is No. 5 in the nation in 3-point shooting (41.1 percent) – yet another area where Swanigan excels, shooting 45.5 percent.
Underdog: Minnesota Golden Gophers (23-8, 11-7) – A five-game mid-season slide could have doomed the Gophers, but they responded by winning eight in a row (7-1 ATS) before ending the regular season Sunday with a 66-49 loss at No. 21 Wisconsin as an 8-point ‘dog. Guard Nate Mason (15.4 ppg, 5.3 apg) leads Minnesota, which has three more players averaging double-figure scoring, and nearly a fourth – guard Akeem Springs is at 9.9 ppg.
Big 12 (March 8-11)
Favorite: Kansas Jayhawks (28-3, 16-2) – The Jayhawks won the regular-season title for the 13th consecutive year, and with it the favorite’s nod. Kansas was dealt a surprising home loss by Iowa State, 92-89 in overtime on Feb. 4, but hasn’t lost since, going 8-0 SU to wrap up the regular season. Guard Frank Mason, the Big 12 Player of the Year, is averaging 20.5 ppg and 5.1 apg.
Underdog: Oklahoma State Cowboys (20-11, 9-9) – The Cowboys, seeded fifth, have been playing solid ball of late, even in games they lost. Oklahoma State suffered a six-game mid-season swoon, but pulled things together with a 10-1 SU run (9-2 ATS), including an 82-75 road win over No. 2 seed West Virginia as a 10.5-point underdog. The Pokes lost their last two games, but both were close against formidable foes: 86-83 at No. 4 seed Iowa State as a 3.5-point pup, and 90-85 Saturday at home to Kansas catching 1.5 points.
Mountain West (March 8-11)
Favorite: Nevada Wolf Pack (25-6, 14-4) – It’s a down year in the Mountain West, which will likely be a one-bid league for the NCAA Tournament. If Nevada maintains its form, it will be that team. The Wolf Pack won their last six games and nine of their last 11 SU and ATS, edging equally hot Colorado State for the regular-season title by beating the Rams 85-72 as a 7-point home chalk Saturday. Guard Marcus Marshall led the conference at 19.7 ppg, among four Nevada players averaging 14.5 points or more, and 6-7 guard Jordan Caroline chipped in 9.2 rpg to go with his 14.5 ppg.
Underdog: Fresno State Bulldogs (19-11, 11-7) – No. 4 seed Fresno State has won five in a row heading into the conference tourney, including road wins over No. 6 seed San Diego State and No. 3 seed Boise State, along with a home victory over fifth-seeded New Mexico. The Bulldogs get it done on the strength of four guards averaging double figures, paced by Jaron Hopkins’ 13.3 ppg.
Pac-12 (March 8-11)
Favorite: UCLA Bruins (28-3, 15-3) – No, the Bruins aren’t the top seed (Oregon). Nor are they the No. 2 seed (Arizona). Rather, UCLA is seeded third in the Pac-12 tournament right here in Las Vegas, at T-Mobile Arena. But Steve Alford’s squad is on the biggest roll heading into this tourney, riding a nine-game win streak that includes an amazing home comeback to beat top-seeded Oregon 82-79 laying 4 points and a 77-72 win getting 2.5 points at No. 2 seed Arizona. Coach’s son Bryce Alford (16.5 ppg) leads a high-octane offense that ranks No. 1 in the nation at 91.3 ppg, No. 1 in field-goal percentage (52.6) and No. 3 in 3-point percentage (41.5).
Underdog: Southern California Trojans (23-8, 10-8 ) – The Trojans have struggled the past month, losing four in row SU and ATS before righting the ship last week with a pair of home blowouts to close the season: 87-64 over Washington State giving 14.5 points, and 74-58 over Washington laying 15 points. USC opened the season 14-0, and a five-game win streak in late January/early February included an 84-76 home victory over UCLA as a 7-point pup.
Southeastern (March 8-12)
Favorite: Kentucky Wildcats (26-5, 16-2) – Fabulous freshman Malik Monk has the No. 9 Wildcats in the catbird seat as the SEC’s No. 1 seed. Monk led the conference in regular-season play with 21.2 ppg, and John Calipari’s troops average 86.8 ppg, which rates fifth nationally. Perhaps as important, Kentucky’s scoring margin is 14.7 ppg, tied for seventh-best in the nation.
Underdog: Vanderbilt Commodores (17-14, 10-8 ) – Based on their late-season play, the seventh-seeded Commodores definitely have live ‘dog potential. Vandy won five of its last six, finishing with a 73-71 victory over No. 2 seed Florida as a 3.5-point home pup. A game earlier, the Commodores had host Kentucky in 19-point first-half and 13-point second-half holes, but couldn’t fend off the talented Wildcats, losing 73-67 as a 10.5-point underdog. In the past month, Vanderbilt also has wins at No. 3 seed Arkansas – 72-59 catching 3 points – and at home over No. 4 seed South Carolina – 71-62 as a 2-point pup.