Early-season hot takes can be dangerous
By Tony Mejia
VegasInsider.com
Statement games have ruled the first few sips of the NBA season.
While not necessarily competitive, the blowouts have been like shots of Espresso, decisively powerful.
The Spurs crushed the Warriors, spoiling Kevin Durant’s regular-season debut at the new Superteam Arena. Instantly, the “Golden State isn’t going to rule basketball” crowd broke out in song and dance.
The Warriors then destroyed Oklahoma City last week, backing KD wholeheartedly in the team-building exercise of making sure Russell Westbrook didn’t leave Oracle happy with himself while wearing his photographer get-up.
Durant caught fire after a slow start and the Thunder were toast. It’s OKC’s only loss of the season through their first seven games, but somehow, the spin on it was that Westbrook is stuck with a bunch of role players. Never mind that it was the same team that had beaten the Clippers in L.A. the previous night, handing them their only loss thus far, but wild exclamations are easy to make this time of year.
The Cavs, the last unbeaten remaining through six games, will go 82-0. See? Simple.
So far, the season has been fun, carving out its niche despite a tremendous World Series and football. Derrick Rose and Joakim Noah returned to Chicago and played conquering heroes on the same day the Cubs had their victory parade. Unfortunately for New York, that happens to be the Knicks best effort of the short season. The Bulls are 4-3, showing signs of cohesion and grit while also having put instances on display that why some observers feel their makeup will never work and Fred Hoiberg will wind up being the first coach fired.
It feels like Minnesota’s Karl-Anthony Towns, Milwaukee’s Giannis Antetokounmpo and Phoenix’s Devin Booker have made the greatest strides, set to earn a new level of stardom. Dirk Nowitzki looks a step slower. Some may say he’s done. Others swear Klay Thompson has forgotten how to shoot since he’s sporting about a 20 percent clip from beyond the arc.
You can make all those statements with a blanket asterisk that it’s far too early to make any real determinations. Instead, all we can do is capitalize on six early trends that will likely shake themselves out, but may be profitable for another few weeks.
Golden State isn’t going to win 63 games, much less 73. This could hold up. Durant’s flurry of 3-pointers against the Thunder produced a 122-96 rout in a performance no one in the league can touch, but that type of output can’t be depended upon. The Warriors lack of rim protection means they’re going to have to outscore teams on a nightly basis, so on nights where the 3-pointer isn’t falling, as was the case against the Lakers on Nov. 4, they’ll be vulnerable. Golden State has started 5-2, but scored 116 or more in four of the wins, a number higher than the NBA-high 112.9 points per game they average.
When they fail to reach that number, the Warriors are 1-2, which could be an issue all season since Zaza Pachulia is struggling to protect the rim and the only guy on the roster who can is named JaVale McGee. Golden State has surrendered a 123-point average in its two defeats and has a few dangerous road games ahead with Denver, Toronto, Boston, Milwaukee and Indiana on tap over the next few weeks. I told you to fade Golden State’s win total and stand by that choice, so I expect a few more eyebrow-raising defeats this month.
Boston can’t defend. The Celtics defensive rating has dipped to last in the league with Al Horford unavailable due to a concussion, and they have allowed 111.8 points per game, currently 28th in the NBA. Only Phoenix and Indiana have been worse. Horford is due back Wednesday, so their ability to defend teams should return to normal. The Celtics are plus-83 with him available and minus-53 without him, so between him and Jae Crowder getting back in the mix, look for the days of Boston giving up 77 points in a half to end. Crowder will be out another week-plus with an ankle injury, but is working to get back for the Warriors visit on Nov. 18. The Wizards, Knicks and Pacers are the next three up between now and next week, so Boston could be vulnerable since all are capable of getting multiple guys going offensively. Brad Stevens’ Celtics have already lost consecutive games and had four separate losing streaks of three games are more last season.
Pau Gasol and LaMarcus Aldridge can’t share the floor. ESPN’s Mark Stein pointed out that the Spurs have been outscored by 25 points in the 113 minutes these two new teammates have been out there at the same time. The sample size is small, but neither has gotten any faster over the years and there are teams capable of significantly exploiting them in the pick-and-roll. San Antonio has played teams like the Clippers, Jazz, Kings, Pelicans and Heat, who happen to have some of the NBA’s bigger, most athletic post threats, so that may be a factor as well. This should shake itself out as the season unfolds and the chemistry between the two improves, especially with Gregg Popovich and his staff on the case. In the short-term, it’s worth keeping an eye on. The Spurs will play the Rockets twice on Wednesday and Saturday, but sandwiched in between will be a meeting with Detroit’s Andre Drummond, the NBA’s top rebounder. Rematches with Sacramento’s DeMarcus Cousins and Miami’s Hassan Whiteside are on tap next week.
Anthony Davis has no help. No denying this one. Despite averaging 30.4 points and 11.9 rebounds per game and opening the season with 95 points in the first two games, the Pelicans are an awful 0-7, joining the 76ers as the lone winless teams remaining. They badly miss point guard Jrue Holiday, who has taken an extended absence to tend to his wife after she underwent surgery to remove a brain tumor. Replacement Tim Frazier is capable offensively, but small, which really limits New Orleans on defense. Ryan Anderson and Eric Gordon are now in Houston, Tyreke Evans remains out, so guys like E’Twaun Moore, Solomon Hill, Langston Galloway and rookie Buddy Hield are filling in. All have holes in their game on the wing, and help isn’t coming any time soon. It’s tough to find yourself fading one of the best players on the planet nightly, but that’s what you should do most of the time until Holiday comes back. They’re 2-5 ATS entering a trip to Sacramento on Tuesday.
Tom Thibodeau won’t transform the Timberwolves overnight. It’s been painfully visible on his face that it hasn’t been a lot of fun watching his young team struggle to get stops and protect the rim. Going in, he knew he wouldn’t have skilled, willing defenders like Noah and Jimmy Butler to build around immediately, but it’s obvious Minnesota’s kids have a lot of work to do to get up to speed. Teams have shot 46 percent against them and have gotten to the line an average of 26 times per game, seventh-highest in the league. Thibs’ concepts are sublime and he’ll mold them into a solid unit, but it hasn’t helped matters nearly that Ricky Rubio got hurt, forcing rookie Kris Dunn into a heightened role. Dunn is going to be excellent and should be a strong defender, but there’s a learning curve ahead. Expect there to be more than a few instances ahead where the tremendously talented Towns, Andrew Wiggins and Zach LaVine wind up losing to inferior competition.
That’s worth keeping in mind since they’ll play two of the Eastern Conference’s worst teams, Brooklyn and Orlando, on the road this week, before opening a four-game home stretch where both L.A. teams, Charlotte and Philadelphia come to town, so they’ll be favored often. Eventually, the Wolves are going to be fine and will probably get it together enough to go on a run that allows them to compete for a playoff spot, so the next few weeks are going to be telling since this team needs to stop the bleeding.
The Wizards and Mavs stink now. While Minnesota’s 1-4 start has been surprising, there are some who feel we should get used to the stumbling that Washington and Dallas have done out of the gate. They’re stuck among the 76ers, Pelicans, Nets and Suns as two of the NBA’s worst teams record-wise through two weeks, but I’m not on board with the opinion that will last. Rick Carlisle and Scott Brooks are talented head coaches who will figure things out and have had obstacles emerge to stunt good starts. The Mavericks have seen Nowitzki limited by illness, Deron Williams dealing with a calf issue and are attempting to get newly acquired Harrison Barnes and Andrew Bogut acclimated. Brooks has had his Wizards relatively whole, but they’ve gone 0-3 on the road and are still looking to put it all together. The Mavs beat the Bucks for their first win before going out on the road for a four-game road swing that spans both coasts over the next week, while the Wizards have the Celtics and Cavs in town, so neither expected resurgence may come soon, but they’ll get things figured out.