Exposing the Top 25: Where the NCAAB polls went wrong
By Scott Spreitzer
The college basketball Top 25 poll is certainly fun to look at and make your own judgments. But the fact is any ranking has just as much to do with politics and name recognition than it does with hoops prowess.
What's more important for bettors is to examine RPI and Las Vegas power rankings. After all, Vegas makes numbers on every game and those numbers are backed not by publicity, politics or public perception, but by money.
Each week, we’ll take a look at the Top 25 polls and expose where the rankings went wrong and where college hoops bettors can find hidden value in these big-name programs, either betting on or against them:
Overrated Top-25 program: Texas A&M Aggies (19-5, 8-7-1 ATS)
The Aggies are ranked 21st in this week's AP poll. But if RPI standings are worth their weight, then bettors will see that Texas A&M is quite overrated. The Aggies rank 37th in the latest RPI.
You can get a gauge on a team's schedule when you see how many or how few of their scheduled games were actually lined. Texas A&M has played 24 games this season, yet only 16 were posted on the Las Vegas board. Eight of the Aggies' 19 wins came against Alcorn State, Texas A&M-C.C., Texas A&M-International, Stephen F. Austin, Prairie View A&M, Wagner, McNeese State and Nicholls State.
It's no wonder Texas A&M couldn't come close both times they faced legitimate Top-10 Texas. And it's no wonder they lost their latest home game to Baylor and scored just 48 points in a nine point loss at Nebraska. But here they are, ranked in the latest Top 25. All of those cupcakes, yet the Aggies rank just 133rd in FG percentage, including 138th from the arc.
Texas A&M hosts Iowa State Wednesday, which should be a win, but certainly not an automatic. And bettors should not be surprised if Oklahoma State exacts a little revenge in Stillwater Saturday.
Most underrated Top-25 program: Arizona Wildcats (21-4, 14-8-1 ATS)
Four weeks ago, I featured Arizona as my team of the week that, not only deserved to be in the Top 25, but a team bettors should take note of for the rest of the season. Since then, the Wildcats have won six in a row, going 5-0-1 ATS.
The Pac-10 has taken its share of hits from the media this season, but Arizona has proved it belongs in the same breath as Connecticut, Villanova and Wisconsin, to name a few. Arizona has the key ingredients to make a surprise run in March.
The Wildcats have a leader on the floor in forward Derrick Williams, who averages over 19 points and eight rebounds. And the team is extremely deep - 10 players have seen action in all 25 games. In fact, the 10 players all average in double-figures in minutes played per game. Seven players are averaging between 6.4 ppg and 19.2 ppg.
The Wildcats are outstanding on the deep perimeter at both ends of the floor, making 40.8 percent of their 3-pointers (ninth in the nation) while allowing opponents to make just 27.5 percent of their threes (second best in the nation). Arizona is 20th in scoring and it is one of the better shooting teams in college basketball. Throw in the Wildcats’ work when it comes to denying opposing rebounds (11th in the nation) and the RPI may be on the money when they ranked Arizona as the fourth-best team Monday night.
The U of A hosts the two Washington schools this week. They must refrain from looking past the Cougars despite the big revenge opportunity Saturday against the Washington Huskies.
Program that deserves a Top-25 spot: UCLA Bruins (18-7, 11-13-1 ATS)
The RPI has taken a liking to the Pac-10 this week and we happen to concur. The Bruins received just 32 points in AP voting, but they rank 12th in this week's RPI. Ben Howland has done another fantastic job turning this program around during the season. UCLA enters this week having won five in a row and nine of its last 10. It’s on a decent 6-4 ATS in those games.
The Bruins have been simply nasty on the defensive end. Even when you include the 85 points allowed to my most-underrated team – Arizona - UCLA has still allowed just 62.7 ppg in regulation play. It is yet another team with several scoring options. No less than five players average between 10.4 ppg and 13.8 ppg. Opponents can't focus on just one or two players when they face the Bruins. Their overall rebounding numbers look decent on the season, but they have been fierce on the glass in their last four games. UCLA outrebounded Oregon State, Oregon, St. John's and USC by an average of 11.5 rebounds per game.
UCLA plays on the road at Stanford and California this week. The Bruins will need a better defensive effort against Cal than the last time, an 86-84 UCLA win, when the Bears connected on 58 percent of their shots. Of course, that was before UCLA began clamping down on the defensive end.