False Alarms...or Red Alerts?
By Bruce Marshall
Now that the college hoops season has moved into December, we’ve had a few weeks to take note of many teams that have been playing either better, or worse, than expected in the early going. Following is a quick update on which of those developments might simply be false alarms...or red alerts. Straight-up and pointspread marks thru December 1.
Boise State (6-0 straight up, 5-0 vs. line)...false alarm? WAC sources are beginning to pay very close attention to the Broncos, who have quickly adapted to new HC Leon Rice, fresh from Mark Few’s staff at Gonzaga. The thought among most observers was that the senior-laden Boise lineup might be slow to adapt to Rice’s various offensive sets and playbook that featured more motion than predecessor Greg Graham’s schemes, but so far the transition has been seamless. Especially flourishing in the new Rice system are srs. F Robert Arnold (a spindly 170-pounder with a quick release from the perimeter and contributing 18.5 ppg on an astounding 59% FG shooting in the first few weeks) and G La’Shard Anderson (13.7 ppg), who shook off a finger injury to lead the recent 80-51 rout at Northern Illinois. One of Boise’s main concerns heading into this season was a lack of go-to scoring options, although Arnold and Anderson appear to be filling those roles quite nicely. The seniors have also quickly bought into Rice’s defensive schemes. Boise remains without a traditional post threat, but keep in mind that some of Few’s better Gonzaga teams functioned efficiently without scoring threats on the blocks, either, and the lack of size does not figure to be too much of a problem in a smaller league such as the WAC. Watch these guys closely.
Cal State Fullerton (2-5 SU, 3-3 vs. line)...red alert? The Big West appears underwhelming once more, so there’s a chance the Titans could still make some noise when league play commences. But regional observers indicate that CSF lacks some of the explosive offensive components of recent entertaining editions, and it did not help HC Bob Burton that starting PG Jacques Streeter decided to transfer to UTEP in the offseason, when 6-10 C Bryce Webster also opted to leave early and pursue a career overseas. The Titans are undersized and forcing roughhouse 6-6, 240-lb. PF Jer’Vaughn Johnson (Burton’s lone returning starter) to take on all comers in the paint. For the moment, CSF’s hopes are dependent upon long-range bomber sr. G Devon Peltier (only 34% beyond arc) and skinny former South Florida transfer F Orane Chin (not durable enough for inside work, but an interesting weapon who can float to the perimeter) bringing their shooting eyes every night. Otherwise, the Titans could be in trouble, especially vs. a foe with any size whatsoever.
Cincinnati (6-0 SU, 1-1 vs. line)...false alarm? Never mind the Bearcats’ 6-0 break from the gate, we’re more excited about the retro circa-1962 uniforms that Cincy broke out for the recent game against nearby Dayton. Shades of Tom Thacker and Tony Yates! The schedule has been very favorable for HC Mick Cronin the early going, but the Bearcats nonetheless opened many eyes with their 68-34 domination of the aforementioned Flyers on November 27. Back to the modern threads (let’s see more of the retro look!), Cincy subsequently topped Wright State 77-69 to move to 6-0 for the first time in HC Mick Cronin’s tenure. Big East observers have been impressed with the Bearcats’ defensive resolve, and the fact Cincy could flourish without physical, bruising 6-9 PF Yancy Gates contributing much to the cause (only 5 points) vs. Dayton was actually cause for optimism in the Queen City. But the Bearcats progress will depend largely upon how much production they receive in the perimeter game, of which 6-4 frosh G Sean Kilpatrick (50% beyond the arc in early action) could prove a valuable component off the bench, and perhaps soon into the starting lineup. As well as more consistency from PG Cashmere Wright (only 29% beyond the arc thru the Wright State game). Cincy intrigues, however, owning size beyond Gates, with 6-11 Ibrahima Thomas and the aptly-named 7-footer Biggie McClain adding to the intimidation factor that can’t hurt when Big East play commences.
Cleveland State (8-0 SU, 4-2 vs. line )...false alarm? We’re starting to believe in the Vikings, who were on our watch list at the beginning of the campaign and became the first team in the country to reach 8 wins. Coach Gary Waters returned all of his starters from a year ago and features a potentially dominant backcourt led by smooth sr. Norris Cole (21.5 ppg) and fellow Gs Trevon Harmon (12.8 ppg), who excels in the transition game, and Jeremy Montgomery (10.5 ppg), bigger and more physical than Harmon but also historically a dangerous long-range threat. The key to early improvement, however, has been the fast-forwarding of 6-9, 275-lb. bruiser Aaron Pogue’s progress. Pogue is mostly keeping out of foul trouble and has improved both his scoring and rebound numbers in the early going. One cautionary note is that the early slate has not been overly demanding, and that Waters believes his team could be performing better, noting Montgomery’s early struggles beyond the arc, and a worse-than-expected assist/TO ratio. Still, the Horizon League isn’t the Big Ten, and the Vikings have enough firepower to camouflage any of those shortcomings in upcoming league play.
George Washington (2-4 SU, 1-5 vs. line)...red alert? Help! So might HC Karl Hobbs be hollering as the Colonials have stumbled to three straight defeats in what have effectively be re-runs of one another. Specifically, the Colonials can’t hit the broadside of a barn, failing to convert better than 38% of their field goals in the last four games. The ongoing absence of 6-5 swingman Lasan Kromah, their leading returning scorer who is likely out a couple of more weeks with a foot injury, has not helped matters, but it’s apparent that GW is offensively-challenged until further notice.
Illinois State (5-2 SU, 1-5 vs. line)...red alert? Don’t be fooled by the Redbirds’ 5-2 straight-up mark. Coach Tim Jankovich downgraded the schedule in November to account for a revamped lineup, and the Redbirds were swamped by visiting UNLV on Nov. 30 in their first serious test of the season. ISU remains a work in progress until further notice, as Jankovich tries to replace three key starters from a year ago, including longtime linchpin G Osiris Eldridge. The new backcourt combination has not demonstrated much firepower, with spindly 6-9 soph F Jackie Carmichael (who likes to play away from the bucket) emerging as the best scoring option in the early going. But ISU lacks much presence in the paint, and it will take some time to replace the firepower Eldridge and fellow graduates Dinma Odiakosa and Lloyd Phillips provided the past few years for a succession of NIT teams. The Redbirds’ shallow pointspread performance is more indicative of the situation in Normal.
UMass (7-0 SU, 3-0 vs. line)...false alarm? We’ll find out a bit more about the Minutemen this weekend when facing their stiffest challenge to date against Boston College. A favorable early slate has contributed to the 7-0 break from the gate, but there are reasons for HC Derek Kellogg to be encouraged, with soph swingman Javorn Farrell (12.4 ppg) emerging as a reliable second scoring option behind explosive sr. G Anthony Gurley (21.3 ppg, including 58% beyond arc). Kellogg’s decision to bring 6-9 jr. frontliner and former Oregon State transfer Sean Carter off of the bench has proved a masterstroke, as Carter has been flourishing in his new role. An early 67-48 win over capable TCU suggests there might be some substance behind the Amherst revival.
San Diego (1-5 SU, 0-5 vs. line)...red alert? It’s seeming like a long time ago that USD was a Big Dance participant and pulled a major upset in the first round of the tourney against UConn. That is now a bit further back in the rear-view mirror (2008), and the Toreros have lost significant momentum in the 33 months since for HC Bill Grier, a onetime Mark Few aide at Gonzaga whose star has fallen the past couple of seasons. Grier’s rebuilt frontcourt is counting on frosh recruits to deliver, but so far none have displayed any consistency on the attack end. His only semi-reliable scoring options appear to be in the backcourt, with lone returning starter Matt Dorr (10.6 ppg) complemented by Bradley transfer Darian Norris (10.2 ppg), plus 6-5 SF Ken Rancifer (11.3 ppg). But until the Toreros can find some scoring production in the paint, and the frosh "bigs" also begin to assert themselves on defense, USD remains a one-dimensional, perimeter-oriented team, and very vulnerable to opponents with any size whatsoever.
Nevada (1-5 SU, 2-3 vs. line)...red alert? The Wolf Pack is looking for some star power to replace recent stalwarts Armon Johnson and Luke Babbitt, who both left school early after last season and are now drawing paychecks from the NBA Portland Trailblazers. It’s no wonder Nevada is struggling in their absences, as the talent pipeline that has been churning out featured performers for much of the last decade in Reno has apparently dried up. Thus, second-year HC David Carter could be at the helm of a sinking ship unless 6-7 Duke transfer Olen Czyz (a local Reno product) emerges as the latest in a line of Wolf Pack stars. Czyz, who becomes eligible in mid-December after starting a couple of games for Coach K early last season, could be that go-to force the Pack needs, with his ability to play on the perimeter or on the blocks reminding some of Babbitt. Another transfer, G Malik Story (via Indiana), is already making contributions (10.8 ppg and an eye-opening 58% beyond the arc), and holdover F Dario Hunt (12.5 ppg) is an effective frontliner, but the belief is that the equation could change for the positive in a big way once Czyz becomes eligible. Along with frosh PG Deonte Burton getting more comfy in his role running the offense, Nevada (which has been away from its home Lawlor Center since the opening win vs. Montana. finally returning on Saturday vs. ranked UNLV) could still be heard from in WAC play.
Washington State (5-0 SU, 4-0 vs. line)...false alarm? Given that there appears to be room in the Pac-10 for new contenders to emerge, west coast observers are keeping a close eye on Wazzu. The Cougs no longer bear any resemblance to the patient, defense-oriented Tony Bennett teams that made a pair of Big Dance visits in recent years. Wazzu began the transformation into an uptempo, bombs-away outfit last year under new HC Ken Bone, and the conversion now appears complete thanks to the addition of juco G Faisal Aden (20.8 pg), a very pleasant surprise in the early going and contributing to a potent backcourt 1-2 punch alongside 6-6 holdover Klay Thompson (22.2 ppg). Both Aden and Thompson are connecting on better than 50% of their FG attempts in the early going as well. Meanwhile, 6-10 soph F Brock Motum (nearly 10 ppg in early going) has emerged as another scoring option in the paint, while springy 6-8 jr. DeAngelo Casto appears back at full strength after a foot injury kept him out of a couple of games. The Cougs figure to be even more dangerous when G Reggie Moore (out early with a wrist injury) returns to the lineup, but Wazzu has been functioning just fine without him in the first few weeks. Bone’s Cougs are scoring points at an 83.6 ppg clip, and we’ll get a better read on how much Wazzu has progressed in the next week, when Kansas State and Gonzaga both visit Friel Court.
Alarms...or Alerts? Part II
By Bruce Marshall
Another week into the college basketball season, and more situations develop across the country with teams that have been playing either better, or worse, than expected in the early going. Following is a quick update on which of those situations might simply be false alarms...or red alerts. Straight-up and pointspread marks thru December 8.
Auburn (3-4 straight up, 1-2 vs. line)...red alert? It’s a good thing Tiger football is enjoying such a big campaign, or else it might be a very depressing time in the most pleasant little village on the Plains. Hoops-wise, Auburn’s 3-4 SU mark under new HC Tony Barbee (former UTEP HC and John Calipari assistant at Memphis) hardly begins to tell the early-season tale of the Tigers, who have moved into a cozy new den (10,000-seat Auburn Arena) after four-plus decades in the drafty Beard-Eaves Coliseum, dedicated by none other than former Gov. Lurleen Wallace in the late ‘60s, as noted by a plaque at the entrance. But early-season losses, all at the new arena, vs. foes from the Atlantic Sun (Campbell and Jacksonville), Big South (UNC-Asheville), and SoCon (Samford) hardly bode well with a steady diet of SEC entries soon to be gracing the Plains. Barbee’s attempts to install a Calipari-like "Dribble Drive Motion" offense have been met with failure, likely because the Tigers have no reliable shooters or go-to scoring options, at least until G Frankie Sullivan (12.7 ppg LY, but out with a knee injury in the early going) returns to action. A player to watch as the year progresses could be slithery 6-6 frosh F Allen Payne (9.1 ppg), one of the few pleasant surprises during the first month of the campaign. But this is looking like it could be a very long first season for Barbee in Tigerland.
Baylor (6-0 SU, 1-1 vs. line)...false alarm? Big XII sources warn that HC Scott Drew’s team is still a ways from comparing to LY’s Elite Eight entry, and to not get too carried away by the Bears’ spotless straight-up mark entering mid-December. Baylor’s early-season schedule has been relatively easy, with only six well-spaced home games over a five-week period. Discriminating regional observers have been concerned about the rebuilt PG situation for HC Scott Drew’s ranked team, and the recent broken foot suffered by frosh Stargell Love makes Baylor even thinner at the all-important position. Baylor has already been dealing with severe TO problems, many of those courtesy first-year starting PG A.J. Walton. On the plus side, however, explosive shooting G LaceDarius Dunn (22.7 ppg) returned to the team in late November after a 3-game suspension (after breaking his girlfriend’s jaw in a domestic dispute) to begin the campaign.
DePaul (3-5 SU, 3-4 vs. line )...red alert? It’s probably beginning to dawn upon first-year HC Oliver Purnell what a daunting task he has ahead of him with the Blue Demons, who have been laboring vs. a modest non-conference slate and will soon be subject to the demands of another brutal and unforgiving Big East regular-season schedule. The rebuild process will take time in the wake of the failed Jerry Wainwright regime that could not develop any traction the past few years, especially after ill-advised early defections of top recruits Dar Tucker (now in the NBA D-League) and Mac Koshwal (now playing overseas in Spain’s Canary Islands for CB Canarias) depleted what could have been a nice upperclass core for the current roster. Instead, Purnell’s offense is relying on frosh G Brandon Young (though promising at 14.9 ppg and 55% FGs) as the new go-to threat, but the Blue Demons have been easy to defend because they aren’t hitting many 3s, in fact ranking a woeful 323rd nationally in triples pg at a mere 3.9. The results have often been painful to watch, with extended droughts on the attack end such as a 14-point first half in Wednesday night’s ugly 73-51 loss at Indiana State, which itself was coming off a 30-point loss at Wyoming. DePaul, which has won only two Big East games the past two seasons anyway, could really be overmatched when ultra-competitive loop play commences.
Drexel (5-1 SU, 5-0 vs. line)...false alarm? The Colonial Athletic Association often flies under the national radar, and when this season commenced even regional mid-Atlantic observers were not paying much attention to the Philly-based Dragons, who endured a difficult summer when G Jamie Harris, HC Bruiser Flint’s top returning scorer, was dismissed from the squad. But the Dragons have proved an early surprise package and have impressed CAA observers with trademark defense and hard-knocking work on the boards. Indeed, it is a fearless collection of players in the mold of Flint, a one-time star G across town at St. Joe’s. And the Bruiser has been mixing and matching his lineup effectively in the early going, with soph G Chris Fouch scoring a whopping 21.7 ppg off the bench in a sixth-man role. Meanwhile, PF Sammie Givens (10.2 ppg & 11 rpg) continues to play several few inches bigger than his 6-5 height, while bruising 6-8, 240-lb. frosh PF Dartaye Ruffin is providing the sort of physical presence on the blocks that Bruiser loves. The CAA is again a competitive loop and potential multi-big Big Dance league, but with Fouch one of the league’s top scoring threats and the interior presence provided by Givens & Ruffin, the Dragons don’t appear as if they are going to be outclassed by anyone in the loop.
Gonzaga (4-4 SU, 2-4 vs. line)...red alert? Before panicking too much in Spokane, keep in mind that three of Gonzaga’s four losses have been to teams ranked in top 16. Nonetheless, many are asking what’s wrong with the Zags, as the manner of their defeats has caused some alarm. And certainly at the moment, Gonzaga’s twelve-year run of Big Dance appearances appears as if it could be in jeopardy, as the road at least to a an at-large berth is not going to be helped by a succession of lopsided non-league losses, including two straight double-digit setbacks vs. Illinois and Washington State. The problems are mostly on the offensive end, where the Zags are not shooting the ball consistently from the perimeter (especially G Elias Harris, just 22% beyond the arc), with opposing defenses now daring Gs Steven Gray and Harris to attack the bucket. As opponents sag away from the perimeter and clog up the paint, 7-0 C Robert Sacre’s effectiveness has also diminished. Moreover, there look to be no natural defensive stoppers on the roster, evidenced by the ease in which Illinois and Washington State were able to get their looks in the recent wins. There is time to recover in WCC play and earn the league’s automatic NCAA bid, but for the moment, the intangibles provided by graduated Matt Bouldin, and the slower-than-expected contributions of some of the newcomers, appear to have knocked the Zags from the elite class until further notice.
Providence (9-2 SU, 4-4 vs. line)...false alarm? The Big East is no league for the faint of heart, but early indicators are that the Friars are probably not going to be roadkill in their rugged loop this season. Recent home wins over local rivals Rhode Island and Brown opened a few eyes, and a gallant effort that fell just short Wednesday night at Boston College (PC’s third straight cover) indicates that HC Keno Davis seems to have things headed in the right direction. Providence is displaying plenty of firepower for a team with eleven first-year players, including a frosh (G Gerard Coleman) and a RS frosh (F Kareem Batts) in the starting lineup. Four other frosh (Bryce Cotton, Dre Evans, Ron Giplaye and Lee Goldsbrough) are all part of the rotation as well. The team’s lone senior starter, G Marshon Brooks (22 ppg), has been glad to assume the bulk of the scoring burden and looks like one of the Big East’s best backcourt threats. There are concerns along the frontline that could be exploited in the Big East, at least until 6-8 soph Bilal Dixon displays a bit more consistency. But the Friars can fill up the bucket, scoring 77 or more in each of their last six games, and will have a puncher’s chance as long as Brooks continues on his scoring tear and the young components continue to mature. That firepower, by the way, has helped result in six straight "overs" for PC entering Saturday’s game vs. Alabama.
Texas Tech (5-5 straight up, 1-6 vs. line)...red alert? Even HC Pat Knight admitted this was a crossroads year for his regime in Lubbock. If so, the Red Raiders have taken the wrong fork in the road, with an alarming recent downturn resulting in 4 losses in the past 5 games and qualification as the Big XII’s most-disappointing squad in the first month of the campaign. Injuries to frontliners D’Walyn Roberts and thick juco Paul Cooper haven’t helped, but this team was supposed to have enough firepower with sr. swingman Mike Singletary and G John Roberson to overcome other deficiencies. More alarming, however, is how Knight’s Texas Tech has completely broken down on the defensive end (especially evident in last Saturday’s 108-79 wipeout loss at Washington), and losses to the likes of North Texas, South Florida, and TCU bode ominous with much tougher conference competition to begin soon. Unless things turn around quickly, speculation regarding Knight’s future will be a hot topic in the Big XII, with the timing of AD Gerald Meyers’ pending retirement after the school year perhaps providing a lifeline for Knight into 2011-12. The AD, close to Pat’s dad Bob, would be unlikely to pull the plug on the younger Knight, especially as Meyers is walking out the door. If Knight survives, however, he will likely be on a short leash in 2011-12 with a new AD in place.
UCF (7-0 SU, 1-5 vs. line)...false alarm? Fast starts are nothing new for UCF, but C-USA observers are getting a different feel regarding the Golden Knights’ latest quick break from the gate under new HC Donnie Jones, recently at Marshall and before that a Billy Donovan assistant at Florida who has brought an up-tempo, fast-paced style to Orlando. UCF has bought into the Jones system, ranking as one of the nation’s top shooting teams at 52.5% from the floor while winning its first seven games by a whopping 27 ppg. Included in those conquests were signature regional wins over South Florida and Florida. Jones is also making good use of his bench, with no one on the floor more than 22 minutes pg during the first month, with twelve players getting at least 10 minutes of playing time. Further, UCF is hitting its triples at a 44% clip thus far, a big improvement over last year’s 34% beyond the arc. The inside-outside due of sophs F Keith Clanton (15.6 ppg) and G Marcus Jordan (Michael’s son scoring 16.4 ppg) continues to impress, while heady PG A.J. Rompza has been posting a better than 3:1 assist/TO ratio in the first month. Some believe UCF could mount a serious challenge to Memphis in CUSA.
Virginia Tech (4-4 SU, 1-5 vs. line)...red alert? It’s been a very disappointing first month for HC Seth Greenberg, with injuries robbing the Hokie roster of needed depth (expected sixth man J.T. Thompson out with a torn ACL suffered in summer, and Florida transfer Allan Chaney sidelined by a heart condition). Moreover, the team has been hit with a case of turnvover-itis, especially sr. G Malcolm Delaney, guilty of more than 5 pg, and VPI guilty of an un-Greenberg-like 16 TOs pg, ranking a lowly 208th in the country in a category in which the Hokies usually fare much better. The defense, however, is still Greenberg-tough, with Seth’s alternating 1-3-1 and 2-3 zones, mixed with his man-to-man-looks, holding foes to a mere 41.6% from the floor. And Delaney is still contributing 20.4 ppg. But support weapons F Jeff Allen (a Shaq-like 52.5% from the FT line) and G Dorenzo Hudson (9.6 ppg) are under producing, leaving too much of the scoring burden on Delaney 9(and perhaps contributing to his TO woes). There’s time for Seth to put VPI back on the right track, but for the moment Hokies rate as one of the ACC’s disappointments in the early going.