February NBA Movers
By Joe Nelson
After the Super Bowl, basketball will take center stage with college conference races heating up and the NBA playoff picture becoming clearer. The NBA All Star game will also get a lot of attention and figures to be one of the best in years in terms of the talent on the court. February presents some very uneven scheduling in the NBA with several teams facing very road heavy slates and a few teams looking to make up ground with limited travel in the month. Here are four teams worth watching in February that we expect to see a big rise or a fall in the standings.
Play On: Orlando Magic
Orlando has been somewhat of a forgotten team in the Eastern Conference with the attention that Boston and Miami have received. The Magic would currently be the #4 seed in the Eastern Conference behind Boston, Chicago, and Miami, and the Magic are only a game ahead of the Hawks to hold on to the #4 spot and have home court for the first round. The Magic are just two years removed from a trip to the NBA Finals and after making a few significant roster moves it has taken some time for the Magic to get all pieces back on the same page. That said the Magic are out-scoring foes by almost six points per game, compared to less than two points per game for the Hawks and Orlando could be poised for a huge month of February.
After playing nine of the last 14 games on the road to close out January the Magic will play just three road games in all of February. Only one of those road games is against a winning team and just half of the eight home games in the month will come against quality competition. Orlando is just 6-5 in the last eleven games and there could be value on the Magic in the coming weeks. It is worth noting that two of those recent losses came in overtime and the January schedule was filled with road games as the team attempted to make adjustments with the new personnel. Orlando will have a very tough March schedule but February should be a chance for the Magic to bridge the gap with the top seeds and at the very least put a firm grip on one of the top four spots.
Play On: Golden State Warriors
Golden State is 20-27 and a full five games back from the final spot in the Western Conference playoff bracket. Of the teams on the outside looking in, Golden State may be the most intriguing and the Warriors could make a push in February. Golden State had a positive January including a 7-6 S/U record in the last 13 games and an 8-5 ATS mark. The Warriors are 14-10 S/U at home this season and Golden State has home games in eight of the 11 games in the coming month.
The opposition for the Warriors is challenging with some of the better teams in the league including winning teams in seven of those games. That will create home underdog value for the Warriors in several match-ups. The Warriors incredibly are just 2-6 ATS as home underdogs this season but expect that record to improve dramatically this month. For the year Golden State is 14-15 as underdogs but there will be several favorable situations ahead including three times facing teams on the end of long road trips. Look for the Warriors to be a team capable of a few upsets and the Warriors may inch closer to the playoff picture by the end of February before fading in a very tough March schedule.
Play Against: San Antonio Spurs
The Spurs have by far the best record in the NBA at 40-7 and the ATS numbers have also been outstanding with a 28-17-2 mark for the season. Going against the Spurs has been a big mistake for the most part this season and while the record is incredible the Spurs are generally not as overvalued as some of the flashier teams like the Lakers, Heat, and Celtics. The Spurs are not likely to survive what will be a brutal scheduling stretch in February without compiling a few more losses however. San Antonio will play nine consecutive road games to open the month of February, starting on the far west coast with games in Portland, Los Angeles, and Sacramento. San Antonio will then head east for six games on the east coast including two sets of back-to-back games before the all star break.
The schedule does not feature a great deal of high quality teams but that means that the Spurs are going to be heavy road favorites in several match-ups and it will be tough for San Antonio to bring great intensity every night against lesser teams and through a grueling travel schedule. Look for value to be against the Spurs in several February match-ups and while San Antonio should still have the league’s best record by the end of the month a few more losses are likely to be chalked up and keep in mind that San Antonio has played seven more home games than road games at this point in the season and this is an older team that could show more wear as the season goes on.
Play Against: Los Angeles Clippers
The Clippers are growing in popularity with the rising stardom of rookie Blake Griffin and while the playoffs are not a realistic possibility for this team the Clippers have quickly become a play-on team going 13-7 in the past 20 games heading into February. The January schedule for the Clippers was incredibly easy however and only four of those 13 wins came against winning teams. The Clippers are 15-13 S/U at home and the 3-15 road mark leaves big questions heading into a road heavy schedule in February. Twelve of 14 February games for the Los Angeles will be on the road and the two home games are against elite teams, Chicago and Boston. The road trip features winning teams in seven of eleven consecutive road games and Los Angeles will not play a home game from February 2 until February 26.
With the Clippers gaining a recent buzz and winning some games over the past few weeks there is likely going to be some inflated spreads to back the Clippers as slight underdogs or even as road favorites in a few match-ups on the road trip. Look for Griffin-mania to die down a bit in February as no team could sustain success through what will be an incredibly challenging month for the Clippers.