Final Four Betting News and Notes

Final Four Notes
By Jim Feist

It is a great weekend for sports fans with the Final Four and the culmination of the college basketball season next Monday in Superdome in New Orleans for the national championship. It is clear that it is not the teams the start the season hot, but the ones that get hot when it really matters -- March and April!

Many things happen over the course of a long season. Some teams play great basketball in December and January, only to break down from injuries or run out of steam down the stretch. Missouri is a good example, starting 17-0 before stumbling in midseason. Last year Villanova won 16 of 17 to start the season, then broke down with injuries and poor play, finishing 3-10 SU, 1-12 ATS. Five years ago Clemson started 17-0, then failed to even make the Big Dance after a 4-10 SU, 5-9 ATS run. Kansas may have won the title four years ago, but seven years ago it was a very different story: The Jayhawks started 20-1, only to go 3-6 straight up and 1-8 against the spread the last nine games. They never made it to the Final Four because of a 64-63 loss to Bucknell as a 13½-point favorite.

Other times an easy early season schedule, youth, bad coaching, untimely injuries, bad luck, poor team chemistry or a combination of these can cut down a potentially great team. Youth and a loss of its best players certainly fell Florida after winning back-to-back titles and prevent a North Carolina repeat in 2010.

Duke saw its hope dashed in a stunning loss to Lehigh as 11-point chalk, but this is nothing new. Last year No. 1 seed Pitt saw its hopes crushed in a loss to Butler, 71-70 and a few years ago No. 2 seed Georgetown took itself out of the tournament, blowing a 46-29 lead by trying to stall against Davidson with far too much time left.

Five years ago Wisconsin was a No. 2 seed, but suffered a key late season loss in 6-11 Brian Butch, their leading rebounder and third-leading scorer. They weren't the same group, getting smacked by Ohio State in the Big 10 tourney and an upset loss to UNLV in the Big Dance.

It is very easy for sports bettors to look into trends to try and predict the future. Trends can be helpful if there are reasons to support it. For example, from a betting perspective, what stands out about the last nine Finals Fours?

Score - Line

2011
Butler 70 - 3.5
VCU 62 - 133
Kentucky 55 - 131
UConn 56 - +2.5

2010
Butler 52 - 1.5
Michigan State 50 - 125
West Virginia 57 - 130
Duke 78 - -2.5

2009:
Michigan State 82 - 135
UConn 73 - 4
North Carolina 83 - 7.5
Villanova 69 - 160

2008:
Kansas 84 - 158
North Carolina 66 - 3
UCLA 63 - 135
Memphis 78 - 3

2007:
Georgetown 60 - 1
Ohio St. 67 - 130
UCLA 66 - 131
Florida 76 - 3

2006:
G. Mason 58 - 132
Florida 73 - -6
LSU 45 - -2
UCLA 59 - 123

2005:
Louisville 57 - 144
Illiniois 72 - -3
Michigan St. 71 - 153
North Carolina 87 - -2

2004:
Georgia Tech 67 - 139
Oklahoma St. 65 - -4
UConn 79 - -2
Duke 78 - 144

2003:
Marquette 61 - -4½
Kansas 94 - 153½
Syracuse 95 - 153
Texas 84 - -3

2002:
Indiana 73 - 134
Oklahoma 64 -6½
Maryland 97 - 168
Kansas 88 - -1½

What stands out is that it has been the day of the dog. The underdog is 11-8 against the number, with ten dogs winning straight up. In addition, the games have gone 10-10 "over" the total, although the "under" is 8-4 the last six years. You can even make an argument that this would be the right time of the college hoops' season to take a shot with the dog on the money-line. However, this is where one needs patience, because trends can also be a fool's paradise. The last seven years the favorites are 9-5 ATS.

If you go back to the previous three Final Fours before that content analysis, 1999-01, we find Duke topping Maryland 95-84, Arizona blowing out Michigan State 80-61, Michigan State beating Wisconsin 53-41, Florida topping North Carolina 71-59, UConn beating Ohio State 64-58 and Duke surviving Michigan State 68-62. What stands out is that the favorite won and covered in five of six, for a hefty 5-1 spread record.

Even looking at totals, a similar pattern emerges. The last ten years the "over/under" has been equal, 10-10 in the Final Four. The three years before that the "under" prevailed at a 5-1 clip. All of a sudden, those who look solely at trends as the key to the sports betting kingdom are stuck at close to a .500 winning percentage ATS.

For the record, going back the last 15 years, there have been 20 "unders" and 14 "overs" in the Final Four, with 17 dogs covering while 17 favorites have gotten the money. Again, trends are worth examining, but there needs to be reasons behind them if you're serious about putting down hard earned money on a side. Perhaps the most significant stat that stands out is that 14 of the 17 dogs that covered ended up winning the game outright, which shows how competitive and relatively evenly matched the games become when teams get this far in the season.

Final Four Betting News and Notes
By Steve Merril
Covers.com

Louisville Cardinals

Aside from Kentucky, Louisville played the best basketball of any remaining team. The Cardinals have been on a major role since the Big East tournament, when they won four games in four nights to take home the title. Louisville has won and covered in eight consecutive games. The Cardinals’ defense has been outstanding all season, allowing just 60.8 points per game on 38 percent shooting.

Louisville will face Kentucky for the second time this season: The Cardinals lost in Lexington, 69-62, on New Year’s Eve. Louisville’s defense held the Wildcats to just 29.8 percent (17 for 57) shooting from the field in that game, including just 18.8 percent (3 for 16) from 3-point land. However, Louisville did send Kentucky to the free-throw line 43 times in that game and it also got dominated on the glass, with the Wildcats grabbing 21 more boards (49-28).

“I want to play Kentucky,” Chris Smith said. “I’m sick of losing to them. It’s a statement game for us.”

Kentucky Wildcats

Kentucky is the best team in the country. The Wildcats have won by big margins all season, with 30 of their 36 wins coming by nine points or more. While Kentucky’s offense gets a lot of the press, its defense is one of the best in the country. Kentucky is holding opponents to just 60.6 points per game on 37.5 percent shooting from the field. The fact that Kentucky’s defense is so solid is amazing considering that it likes to play at a fast pace.

“Do you want to play slow or fast?” head coach John Calipari asked.

“Fast,” senior guard Darius Miller said.

“If they play the way they enjoy playing, they're going to play better,” Calipari said. “They just are. They're going to be more comfortable. I trust these players. I don't like slow pace. I don't enjoy coaching that way. They don't enjoy playing that way.”

After going through the motions in its first tournament game, Kentucky comes in on a 3-0 ATS run with all three wins coming by double digits.

Ohio State Buckeys

The Buckeyes are in the Final Four, despite the fact they have yet to play a complete game in this tournament. Ohio State has gotten big games from individuals, but they haven’t all been on at the same time. If they can put it all together in New Orleans, the Buckeyes will be an extremely difficult team to beat.

The good thing about this team is that they’re not reliant on hitting 3-point shots to win and only scores 20.1 percent of their points from beyond the arc. Ohio State relies on its inside scoring (59.5 percent of its points), but when it generates points from 3-point range, the Buckeyes are difficult to beat.

Ohio State is just 1-5 ATS as a single-digit favorite when held to less than 70 points this season, and their opponent, Kansas, only allows 61.6 points per game. The Buckeyes are playing with a chip on their shoulder after reading and listening to all of their critics.

“I appreciated everyone that doubted this basketball team,” Jared Sullinger said. “Said we were the underdogs, that we weren't good enough, mentally strong enough, physically strong enough, mentally immature. We heard it all.”

Kansas Jayhawks

Before their win over North Carolina, the Kansas Jayhawks weren’t playing good basketball in the NCAA, especially on offense. Kansas shot just 38.6 percent (68 for 176) from the field in its first three tournament games. It shot 46 percent (29-63) versus UNC in the Elite Eight. Kansas scored 65, 63, and 60 points in its first three games despite facing three of the worst defensive teams in the entire tournament.

“I love them,” head coach Bill Self said of his team. “When we won in ’08, I felt I got a gorilla off my back. Now I’m just happy for the kids and the school. It’s so much fun to do something when nobody thinks you can.”

Kansas has zero McDonald’s All-Americans on its roster, which is a rarity for such a big-time program. The Jayhawks are just 4-6 ATS over their last 10 games and they’ve only covered the spread in back-to-back games four times all season.

Final Four Team Breakdowns
By Ted Sevransky
Covers.com

Over the last two weeks we’ve seen 64 NCAA Tournament teams get eliminated from the field, leaving only the Final Four remaining with a chance to cut down the nets in New Orleans next Monday.

College hoops statistical guru Ken Pomeroy breaks down the four teams chances to win the title as follows: Kentucky 42%, Ohio State 34%, Kansas 17% and Louisville 7%. From my perspective, if John Calipari’s Wildcats play as well next weekend as they did this past weekend, that 42% chance of a title looks pretty darn low.

That being said, it’s going to be very hard for Kentucky to match their near flawless offensive performances in wins over Baylor and Indiana. The Wildcats have scored a ridiculous 220 points in their last 163 possessions; a 1.35 points per possession ratio. Those are not sustainable numbers, even for a team that closed out the weekend ranked #2 in the country (behind only Missouri) with a 1.17 points per possession average.

Both Final Four games are rematches of non-conference affairs from earlier in the season. The talking heads on TV are sure to bring up this angle ad nauseum, but the bottom line is that neither affair had a final score that reflected how the game was played, and there were significant mitigating circumstances that makes the games themselves useful for a Final Four handicap only when we consider the fact that there is some level of familiarity between the teams.

Louisville and Kentucky met on New Year’s Eve – arguably the most ‘distracted’ night of the entire season -- at Rupp Arena – not exactly a neutral venue. Kentucky dominated most of the first half, leading 31-16 after 15 minutes of play, but the Cardinals closed out the half on a 17-5 run to cut the gap to three.

It was just as zany in the second half, when Kentucky gradually pulled away once again, leading 69-56 with 10 seconds remaining before one of the worst pointspread beats of the entire season. Louisville’s Russ Smith hit a three pointer with five seconds left, followed by a steal and another Russ Smith three pointer at the buzzer, leaving Wildcat backers stunned with the 69-62 final as 9.5 point chalk. The game itself was a brickfest, with both squads held under 33% shooting.

Ohio State faced Kansas at Phog Allen Fieldhouse – again, not exactly a neutral site venue – back on December 10th. At the time, the Buckeyes were 8-0, including a seven point win over Florida and a 22 point blowout over Duke, both at home. Meanwhile Kansas had already lost ‘step-up’ games on neutral floors against Kentucky (at Madison Square Garden in the ‘State Farm Champions Classic’) and against Duke in the Maui Invitational.

It was the Buckeyes first road game of the season, and they were without their leading scorer, rebounder and shot blocker Jared Sullinger. Sullinger was suffering from back spasms, not announced as ‘out’ until the hours before the game. The betting markets, not surprisingly, went nuts, driving the Buckeyes from 3.5 point favorites to 2 point underdogs.

Kansas shot lights out, taking advantage of Sullinger’s absence, hitting 19-31 from two point range and 9-17 from three point land. Ohio State finished on the other end of the shooting spectrum, hitting less than 39% for the game; 29% from downtown. The Jayhawks raced out to an early ten point lead, but Ohio State cut it to six at the half.

The second half again featured a brief Kansas run-out, with the Jayhawks leading by as many as twelve, but the Buckeyes hung tough, cutting the lead to four with less than six minutes to play – a gutty, gritty effort without their best player in their first road game on an afternoon where the decibel level reached 114 – rock concert loud. But Kansas pulled away late when Ohio State hit only one basket in the final four minutes, eventually winning by eleven.

When we look at NBA caliber talent for the coming weekend, Kentucky stands out. Anthony Davis is the projected #1 overall pick. Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, Doron Lamb, Terrence Jones and Marquis Teague are all projected first rounders, if they come out.

And the Wildcats certainly have an impeccable resume. They were the #1 overall seed in the tournament and are the only #1 seed still standing. Their only losses all year came on a buzzer beating three pointer in their first road game at Indiana, and in the SEC Conference Tournament, playing their third game in three days against a Vanderbilt team that had hung tough with them twice in the previous month.

Kentucky ranks #1 in the country in defensive field goal percentage allowed to go along with their #2 points per possession ranking (out of 345 D-1A teams). It is worth noting, however that Pomerey’s adjusted defensive efficiency numbers show the Wildcats as the single weakest defensive team out of the four teams playing next Saturday.

It’s also worth noting that we haven’t seen a Final Four favorite of -9 or higher (like the Wildcats are against Louisville) since 1999 when Duke failed to cover as 11 point chalk in their six point win over Michigan State. Nor should we forget that Kentucky is the only team of the Final Four with a freshman point guard – Marquis Teague had more turnovers than assists in their Elite Eight victory over Baylor.

Louisville is here because of defense, and defense only. The numbers don’t lie. Louisville ranks #2 in the nation in defensive field goal percentage allowed. They have the length and athleticism on the wing to shut down Kentucky’s three point shooters, just as they did in the first meeting when they held the Wildcats under 30% from the floor, including a 3-16 performance from beyond the arc: #18 in the country defending the three point line.

Louisville ranks #28 in the nation in blocked shots. And their defensive pressure has them #7 in the nation in steals. That type of defense makes it very difficult to beat Rick Pitino’s team by margin – hence the Cardinals impressive 8-3 ATS mark as an underdog this year.

Louisville opened the season with 12 straight wins, but Pitino’s squad battled the injury bug and a brutal Big East schedule, losing four out of five to open conference play. They slumped down the stretch, losing four out of six heading into the Big East tournament. Those struggles give some pointspread value with the Cardinals now, despite their current 8-0 SU and ATS run over the past three weeks. Much like national champion UConn did last year, Louisville gutted their way to a Big East Tournament title and have carried that momentum forward into the Big Dance.

From an ‘opponents faced’ perspective, Kansas has enjoyed the easiest path to the Final Four, beating a 15 seed, a 10 seed, an 11 seed, and a team playing without their star point guard. Despite that relatively easy slate, Kansas is fortunate to be here. Bill Self’s team did not play well in their Round of 32 matchup against Purdue, barely gutting out a come-from behind win in the final 30 seconds thanks to a Boilermakers turnover that led to an easy fast break bucket and a one point lead.

With an eight point lead with less than four minutes to play against ice-cold NC State, the Jayhawks suffered a complete meltdown – terrible shots, multiple turnovers, a pair of missed free throws on the front end of one-and-ones, inexcusable fouls on Wolfpack three point shooters – the works. Instead of pulling away for the win and cover, they were lucky to escape.

As a team, the Jayhawks shot 37% in their win over NC State, including a woeful 1-14 from three point range. Against Purdue, it was 34% shooting, just 25% from beyond the arc. This is a good shooting team as we saw against North Carolina, getting high percentage looks looks for big men Jeff Withey and Thomas Robinson in the paint. Their guards drive to the basket, and they consistently get wide open looks on the perimeter, shooting close to 48% for the full season.

The fact that they’ve been able to gut out three straight tight wins – don’t be fooled for a minute by that 13 point margin of victory over the Tar Heels -- with defense and rebounding tells us very clearly that if the shooting pendulum swings back to normalcy, Kansas is going to step up with the type of impressive performance that they are capable of delivering.

Ohio State has a pretty darn good statistical profile as well. They rank in the Top 10 in the country in rebounding margin; best of any team remaining thanks to their +7.9 edge on the boards per game. Pomeroy’s numbers have them ranked only behind Louisville in terms of defensive efficiency, although they are significantly weaker than Kansas on the defensive end of the court when we look at both team’s results away from home. The Buckeyes have a pair of future NBA draft picks in Jared Sullinger and William Buford. And the Big 10 was as good or better than any conference in college basketball this year – much better than the Big 12.

What the Buckeyes don’t have is depth. In their Elite Eight win over Syracuse, Thad Matta played Deshaun Thomas and Williams Buford for the full 40 minutes. Aaron Craft would have played 40 as well, but he fouled out after 39 minutes. Jared Sullinger also had foul issues against the Orange, but he played 37 minutes against Cinci in the Sweet 16. Lenzelle Smith played 35 minutes for the second consecutive game. In their two games last weekend, the Buckeyes got a grand total of 40 out of 400 possible minutes from their bench. That bench production? Ten points, six rebounds and four assists. If foul trouble rears it’s ugly head this weekend, the Buckeyes are probably doomed.

Breaking down the Final Four rematches
By Jason Logan
Covers.com

Rarely does the Final Four lend itself to recent trends and matchups. College basketball teams change each season, and stats and figures from years ago hold about as much weight as the runway in a fashion show.

However, basketball bettors get a gift from the Gambling Gods this March with both Final Four games pegged as rematches of non-conference regular season meetings.

Ohio State tangled with Kansas at Allen Fieldhouse on Dec. 10, with the host Jayhawks winning 78-67 as 1.5-point home favorites. State rivals Kentucky and Louisville rang in the New Year with a 69-62 Wildcats win in Rupp Arena, with UK failing to cover the 10-point spread on Dec. 31.

All four programs have improved by leaps and bounds since those meetings. And while much of what happened during those December dates can get tossed in the trash, there are some important notes bettors should keep in mind when sizing up the odds for this Saturday’s national semifinal games.

Here’s what to take and what to leave from the first matchups between the Final Four contenders:

Kansas Jayhawks 78, Ohio State Buckeyes 67 – Dec. 10, 2011

Take it: Sans Sullinger

The Buckeyes were without All-American center Jared Sullinger due to back spasms in their first meeting with the Jayhawks. Ohio State’s offense flows through the post and without the stud sophomore sucking in the defense, their sets looked lost.

The Buckeyes shot just under 39 percent and went to the foul line only 18 times. Ohio State has been to the stripe 69 times in the last two games with Sullinger going 18 for 22 from the foul line in that span.

Leave it: Kansas shooting

The Jayhawks were on fire versus OSU, shooting 58 percent from the field and 9 for 17 from beyond the arc. Kansas took advantage of Sullinger’s absence, getting 21 points from Thomas Robinson, and finding lots of room for shooters and passing lanes because the Buckeyes couldn’t cheat up without their big man in the middle.

Kansas isn’t shooting well in the tournament, hitting only 40.6 percent of its buckets. It's been especially dismal from beyond the arc, going 16 for 68 (23.5 percent) from distance. The Jayhawks shot 46 percent versus North Carolina, but a lot of those came on layups in transition.

Take it: Tyshawn toughs it out

Tyshawn Taylor took on the top perimeter defender in college basketball with just one leg back in December. It will be interesting to see what happens when the healthy KU guard tangles with OSU’s Aaron Kraft this weekend.

Taylor scored nine points on 3-of-9 shooting and committed seven turnovers, playing on a torn meniscus and sprained right MCL on Dec. 10. But he also dished out 13 assists and got to the foul line six times. Taylor, who struggled in the first three games of the NCAA (and is 0 for 17 from 3-point land), showed up when KU needed him most, scoring 22 points in the Elite Eight win over UNC.

Kentucky Wildcats 69, Louisville Cardinals 62 – Dec. 31, 2011

Leave it: Old acquaintance be forgot

Covers Expert Ted Sevransky drew attention to the fact that this game was played at noon on New Year’s Eve, in his Final Four writeup this week. Not only did a distracted Wildcats squad shoot just 29.8 percent from the field and commit a season-high 20 turnovers, but also burned backers bad.

Kentucky, ahead by 13 points with 10 seconds left, started daydreaming about ringing in 2012 with the co-eds instead of closing out the Cardinals. The lack of focus led to one of the worst beats of the season.

Kentucky, a 10-point favorite, watched as Russ Smith buried a 3-pointer then got the ball back on a steal and drained another trey at the buzzer to trim the lead to seven, forcing UK backers to change their New Year’s resolutions from “stop smoking” to “stop betting on Kentucky.” That blown cover was part of a 0-13-1 ATS skid for the Wildcats that spanned nearly two months.

Take it: Wildcats Windex

Kentucky dominated the glass in its previous meeting with Louisville, out-rebounding its state rival 49-28, including 14 offensive boards. The Cardinals were beaten on the glass by Florida and New Mexico State, but somehow outworked Michigan State – the best rebounding team in the country – by two rebounds.

The Wildcats average more than 36 rebounds per game in the tournament – 10.5 of those on the offensive glass. Kentucky forwards Anthony Davis, Terrence Jones and Michael Kidd-Gilchrist are a handful for Louisville’s four-guard set, and were responsible for 40 of UK’s 49 boards back on Dec. 31.

Leave it: No Russ, No Muss

Russ Smith has shown up in the biggest games of the season for Louisville. He scored 19 points and sparked a late rally against Florida to get the Cardinals into the Final Four. And, back in December, he dropped 30 points on perhaps the best defensive team in college hoops. Smith, a 6-foot sophomore who comes off the bench, went 10 for 20 (including 3 for 8 from 3-point range) to keep UL in the game. He was the only Louisville player in double figures.

But, as much as Smith can help the Cardinals, he can hurt them. He was careless down the stretch versus the Gators, committing two of his four turnovers in the final 2:25 of the game and can sometimes be a blackhole when he gets his hands on the basketball. For a guy who plays just under 21 minutes a game, he uses a team-high 32.5 percent of UL’s possessions. The Cardinals can’t afford wasted possessions versus Kentucky, which over the past two games is averaging 1.35 points every time it touches the ball.

Final Four Action Report
By Covers.com

On the evening before the Final Four, oddsmakers are relatively happy with their opening lines and the handle they have booked for Saturday’s matchups.

In general, we’re seeing very little movement from the opening numbers as the action has been balanced on both the two pointspreads and totals.

Louisville and Kentucky kick off Saturday’s action at 6:05 p.m. ET, followed by the Ohio State-Kansas at 8:45 p.m. ET.

Here is the latest from the books:

Louisville vs. Kentucky Open: -9 Move: -8.5, Total Open: 138.5 Total Move: 136.5

Louisville has covered the number in eight straight games and almost 62 percent of Covers.com Consensus bettors were backing the Cardinals as of Friday evening, so it’s no surprise to see this spread down a half point at most shops.

The total has seen a more significant drop.

“Great balanced action on this game so far with a slight public lean to Louisville as an underdog,” Todd Fuhrman, Caesars sportsbook senior analyst, told Covers.com. “I think the price will stay pretty close to where it's at unless betting patterns take a drastic change between now and tip.

“As is always the case in big games, the betting public will want to take the underdog on the moneyline as well with the healthy payout while its tougher to get moneyline action on the chalk from anyone but the pros.”

It’s a similar story with most online shops. We hit up Mike Pierce of Sportsbook.com to get his take on the game.

“We have stayed on 8.5 the whole time and as of Friday afternoon, 56 percent of cash is backing the underdog on the spread. As for the total, we did get some sharp action on under 138. The total currently resides at 136.5.”

Ohio State vs. Kansas Total Open: 136 Total Move: 137.5

It looks like Jared Sullinger and the Ohio State Buckeyes are the catalyst for any of the movement we could see on the line or total in this matchup. As of now, both the line and total are holding.

“As of Friday afternoon, 68 percent of the spread action is backing the Buckeyes, but 65 percent of the moneyline cash is on KU +130,” Pierce reports. “The opening total was 136.5 for us, and since almost 75 percent of all cash during the week was on the over, on Wednesday, we moved the total to 137.

“Since we kind of have of a big decision on OSU on the side, I could see us possibly moving to Buckeyes -3 a handful of hours before game time. But I really doubt it happens because we have a big decision leaning towards KU on moneyline.”

Fuhrman says he hasn’t seen any movement of note on the spread or the total.

“I think the tempo we've seen from Kansas the past few games says they'd like to turn it into a more open court affair rather than grind the Buckeyes in the halfcourt,” Fuhrman says. “ As I've said all week the key to handicapping this side and total is Sullinger. Can he stay on the court and allow OSU to play at full strength for 40 minutes?”