Final Four Betting News and Notes

Final Four Preview
By Scott Spreitzer
Sportspic.com

Sixty-four games have been played leaving us with #1 seeds Kentucky, Wisconsin, Duke, and then a mis-seeded #7 Michigan State left to battle for the 2015 National Championship this weekend in Indianapolis.

When handicapping the Final Four, it’s very important to focus on the classic fundamentals. That’s a key factor in why all four of these programs (and all four of these veteran head coaches) are still alive in the brackets. Fundamentals will likely determine who cuts down the nets Monday night. That’s what matters most when championships are on the line!

Let’s take a quick look at each matchup.

Kentucky vs Wisconsin

Better offense: Too close to call, slight edge to Wisconsin
Better defense: Kentucky by a lot

More meaningful depth: Kentucky

Some may be surprised that I’m giving such a large edge to Kentucky on the defensive side of the floor. The media has spent a lot of time this postseason raving about the Wisconsin defense. They were even doing that while all Wisconsin could do was grab and foul Arizona down the stretch last Saturday because the Badgers couldn’t guard the Wildcats!

Wisconsin creates the illusion of great defense by holding onto the ball so long on offense. That creates lower scoring games. But, holding onto the ball isn’t the same as stealing the ball, blocking shots, or forcing opponents into bad looks. When you adjust for pace and strength of schedule, Wisconsin doesn’t even have one of the best 50 defenses in the nation on a per-possession basis (according to Ken Pomeroy’s trusted statistical website). Kentucky is best in the nation after making those adjustments. Bottom line: Kentucky’s defensive fundamentals and skill sets are significantly better.

Who’s going to make more plays on offense because of their mastery of fundamentals? Wisconsin has a shot to do that. Though they are likely to cool off from that crazy second half shooting performance on treys they enjoyed in the Elite 8. Both of these teams have multiple threats and are able to score from all over the floor (and the free throw line). Both work the ball to high percentage spots on the floor.

Kentucky was posted as a 6-point favorite out of the gate because of that superior defense, and because their roster is so deep that they can handle fatigue, foul trouble, and most anything except red hot three-point shooting from an opponent.

Duke vs Michigan State

Better offense: Duke
Better defense: Very close

More meaningful depth: Michigan State

Duke joins Wisconsin and Kentucky on the list of most efficient offenses in the nation because they can beat you inside and outside while protecting the ball. This year’s team has more athleticism than past Duke entries, while maintaining a high basketball IQ and a sense of movement. Michigan State is better than its reputation offensively. The Spartans “plod” their way to effectiveness in a way that doesn’t always please the eye. But, they are a top 20 team in adjusted offensive efficiency.

Michigan State has a better defensive reputation than Duke. That’s once again an illusion created by pace. Duke likes to push tempo when they can. Michigan State is much more methodical, only taking fast break opportunities in the most obvious situations. Once you adjust for pace, these defenses are fairly similar in their effectiveness.

Whether or not depth will be a factor in this one will depend on officiating. You saw Michigan State handle a pair of players fouling out vs. Louisville. Duke doesn’t have that luxury. A tightly called game favors Michigan State, because Duke will have to back off inside. If the refs let them play, Duke’s most dynamic talent will be able to stay on the floor the whole way.

(Quick note on our theme of fundamentals: Duke only suffered three offensive turnovers the whole game against Gonzaga!)

Duke is a market favorite (about 4-5 points on the early line) because of their superior seed, and their superior form in this event. But note that Michigan State beat Virginia in the Round of 32…the team that won Duke’s conference during the regular season.

Of course Saturday’s winners play Monday night. If Kentucky advances as a favorite, they will have a clear defensive edge over either Duke or Michigan State. But, the game they had to sweat with Notre Dame shows that any talented opponent has a chance to hang with or beat Kentucky in a 40-minute war on a neutral court. Odds favor the coronation of an undefeated champ. Fans and bettors just might be in for a very interesting weekend.

NCAA Tournament Opening Betting Line Report
By Colin Kelly
Covers.com

After two weekends of wall-to-wall basketball, full of heart-pounding wins and losses – for teams, bettors and sportsbooks alike – the NCAA Tournament is down to the Final Four. And it should be just as much of a screamer as the rest of the Big Dance.

You’ve got top overall seed Kentucky (38-0 SU, 19-17-2 ATS) aiming to complete a perfect season, something that hasn’t been done since Indiana accomplished the feat in 1976. The Wildcats got arguably their sternest test all season when they held off No. 3 seed Notre Dame 68-66 as an 11-point favorite in the Midwest Region final Saturday. That gave Kentucky a date with fellow top seed Wisconsin (35-3 SU, 20-17-1 ATS), which bested No. 2 seed Arizona 85-78 as a 1.5-point underdog in the West final.

On Sunday, No. 1 seed Duke (33-4 SU, 22-14-1 ATS) stifled No. 2 seed Gonzaga 66-52 laying 1.5 points in the South final, and No. 7 seed Michigan State (27-11 SU, 22-16 ATS) – a 2-point chalk – topped No. 4 seed Louisville 76-70 in overtime in the East final.

So how do things shape up for the Final Four? John Avello, executive director of race and sports for The Wynn, and John Lester, senior lines manager for bookmaker.eu, provide Covers with their insights.

No. 1 Wisconsin vs. No. 1 Kentucky (-6.5)

It’s a rematch from last year’s Final Four, which Kentucky won 74-73 to push as a 1-point fave.

“This is one of the lower numbers Kentucky’s had through the whole year,” Avello told Covers, and in fact, the ‘Cats have been double-digit chalk in all their postseason games – in the SEC and NCAA tourneys. “Wisconsin is a quality team, with good shooters outside and great players inside. Now, they need to beat the big dog to have a chance to win the title.

“In my ratings, I had Kentucky at 5.5 or 6, but that just felt a little light to me.”

Lester said his crew batted around a range of numbers before going with Avello’s initial feeling, making Kentucky a 5.5-point favorite at Bookmaker.

“Many believed these were the best two teams in the country coming into the tournament, and you could easily make that argument now,” Lester told Covers. “Kentucky has been a public darling all year of course, but the Badgers have had a lot of square and sharp support throughout the Big Dance.

“Our guys were between 4 to 7 points for this matchup. We shaded toward the favorite because we will need to attract some money on Wisconsin.”

No. 7 Michigan State vs. No. 1 Duke (-5.5)

Duke is no surprise in the matchup. Michigan State is, to a degree.

“You’ve got a team nobody expected to get there this year,” Avello said. “Michigan State has a history of getting through the tournament, but this year didn’t seem like their year. Hats off to Coach Tom Izzo again for the way he gets his team ready to win it all – not to win the Big Ten, but to win it all.”

So what about the number?

“At the beginning of the tournament, Duke would have been favored by 8 to 9 points over Michigan State,” Avello said. “My adjustment has been made. Michigan State is better now than at the beginning of the tournament, but is Duke worse? I don’t think so.”

As with the Wisconsin-Kentucky line, Lester came in a little tighter, with Michigan State opening at +4.5. But he entertained 5.5 and fully expects the number to jump.

“The Spartans just feel like that team of destiny, like UConn last year. But they are overmatched from a personnel perspective here,” Lester said. “Michigan State claws to come back and win games, while the Blue Devils grind to preserve wins.

“I felt like we could’ve made this a point higher, and I’m expecting the number to jump throughout the week.”

Bettors Gear Up For Final Four
By Teddy Covers
Sportsmemo.com

The dust has settled from the madness that is March, with only four teams still standing in the NCAA Tournament. And frankly, since the insanity of that opening Thursday morning when top seeds were falling like flies (Baylor, Iowa State, SMU), this tournament has not seen a bevy of upsets.

In fact, the Vegas favorite advanced in 48 of the last 54 Big Dance games (48-6 SU, not ATS) since midday on the opening day of the tourney. For only the second time this century, three #1 seeds reached the Final Four. In this week’s Wiseguy Report I’m going to try to answer the question that everybody is asking: can anybody beat Kentucky; winners of 38 consecutive ballgames since the start of the season.

Since Kentucky is the most hyped team in recent memory, I’ll start with the Wildcats first. Yes, this team won the title in 2012, going 4-2 ATS in the process during the Big Dance. Yes, they reached the championship game last year; an undervalued commodity in March as they covered all four pointspreads on the way to the Final Four.

But this year’s Kentucky team has simply gotten too much publicity and too much hype coming into the tourney. That’s a big part of the reason why they have covered only one pointspread in four tourney games thus far. The bigger betting groups have certainly noticed, with fairly heavy wiseguy money showing against the Wildcats in both games over Sweet 16 weekend.

Perhaps the single most impressive aspect of John Calipari’s squad has been their ability to respond to adversity through stellar execution on both ends of the floor. Look at their thrilling two point win over Notre Dame for a prime example. Kentucky hit their last nine shots of that game as they rallied back against the Fighting Irish. Six of those nine shots were layups or dunks, two more were wide open three pointers. Throw in an impressive display of offensive rebounding, nabbing their own misses at a 40% clip, and the stage was set for a remarkably poised comeback victory.

Kentucky ranks among the Top 2 in the country in defensive efficiency from both two point range and from three point range; a truly elite defense. But the Wildcats defense proved vulnerable against the Fighting Irish. The quickness of the Notre Dame guards was problematic for the bigger Wildcat on-ball defenders – both Harrison twins struggled with dribble penetration; hence the extra playing time for Tyler Ulis and Devin Booker (51 minutes between them). Notre Dame’s guards were repeatedly able to get into the paint, creating good looks by the basket and open looks from the three point line, but Coach Calipari had enough depth and roster versatility to counter.

For all of the incredible offense that Bo Ryan’s Badgers demonstrated in their win over Arizona, the Wisconsin guards didn’t play all that well. Josh Gasser and Bronson Koening combined for only five assists and four baskets for the entire game. Senior point guard Traveon Jackson returned from a two month-long absence and was held scoreless and assist-less in seven minutes of non-descript playing time.

Neither Koenig nor Jackson appear to have the capacity to drive past the Harrison twins the same way that Notre Dame’s guards were able to. The Badgers had the #1 offense in the country in ‘points per possession’ by a fairly wide margin this year, as clearly evidenced by their remarkable offensive showing in the second half against Arizona, but they’ll be hard pressed to match that level of shooting when they face off against the Wildcats.

Seventh seed Michigan State is the only surprise team to reach the Final Four. Frankly, with Tom Izzo making his seventh Final Four since 1999 (more than any other coach or program), the Spartans cannot be considered a major surprise. Izzo is now 7-2 in Elite Eight games (SU), and he has guided Michigan State to 13 NCAA Tournament victories as a lower seed; more than any other coach in history (Rollie Massamino and Lute Olson are tied for second with 11 wins as a lower seed).

Michigan State spent the first three months of the season struggling to find their rhythm. They lost at home to the likes of Illinois and Minnesota on the heels of their earlier loss in East Lansing to Texas Southern. Maryland beat them twice. Nebraska knocked them off. It was not pretty for Tom Izzo and company – until the calendar hit March.

The Spartans closed out the regular season with a pair of wins, including a tough, gut-it-out win at Indiana on senior day for the Hoosiers. They went into the Big 10 tourney and played waaaay above their power rating, beating Ohio State and Maryland, then controlling Wisconsin for about the first 35 minutes of gameplan before falling short in OT.

Here in the Big Dance, the Spartans have been as tough as nails, surviving a very slow start against Oklahoma, while knocking off quality squads from Louisville, Virginia and Georgia; winning all four games by seven points or less. They survived their ‘missed free throw’ debacle game against Oklahoma, hitting all six key free throws to clinch the victory after starting the game 3-10 from the charity stripe. It’s a waaaay overused cliché, but the Spartans really are playing their best basketball of the year right now; a team that is coming together at the right time.

That being said, Duke-Kentucky is the Finals matchup the betting markets expect, the Finals matchup the networks want and the Finals matchup between the two best teams in the country, according to my power ratings. And Duke’s ball pressure defense is primed to give the Spartans offensive flow issues – point guard play is not an area of strength for Michigan State, despite their tremendous perimeter shooting in the win over Louisville

Duke is here because backcourt mates Tyus Jones, Quinn Cook and Matt Jones, along with penetrating forward Justin Winslow have been consistently able to drive into the paint and get good shots for themselves and their teammates. Jones and Cook each played 40 full minutes without a turnover in the win over Gonzaga, and Duke turned it over only three times all game, one of which was a shot clock violation as they were running out the clock on their final possession.

After playing a pair of games in the dismal conditions for shooters at NRG Stadium in Houston. Duke should benefit from the better sight lines in Indianapolis. The Blue Devils beat the Spartans by ten on this floor in the Midwest Regional back in 2013, and they beat them by ten at Bankers Life Fieldhouse here in Indy back in November of this season. To pull off another win and cover against Michigan State next Saturday, they’ll probably need more from potential #1 overall NBA draft choice Jahlil Okafor, who scored only 15 points in 61 minutes of floor time this past weekend while spending extended portions of crunch time on the bench due to his poor free throw shooting.

Final Four Betting Outlook
By Jim Feist
Playbook.com

It is a great week for sports fans with the start of baseball, the NBA stretch run, the Final Four and the culmination of the college basketball season next Monday at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis, Indiana for the national championship. It's clear that it's not the teams the start the season hot, but the ones that get hot when it really matters -- March and April!

Many things happen over the course of a long season. Some teams play great basketball in December and January, only to break down from injuries or run out of steam down the stretch.

For example, North Carolina started 17-4 but as February started the Tar Heels showed vulnerability, losing six of 10. A year ago Syracuse started hot before losing its first game in mid-February. From that point on they struggled to score and win, getting bounced by North Carolina State in the ACC Tournament.

It works the other way, too. A team can have a tough non-conference schedule or need time to work in new pieces, then get hot down the stretch. Last season Michigan State overcame injuries in mid-season before getting healthy - - and hot, ripping through the Big 10 tournament with a 3-0 record both straight up and against the spread.

It’s important to examine how a team played with overall stats, but also in three different sections:

1) Early non-conference play

2) Conference play

3) Tournament time

Two years ago, Miami started 22-3 before the national spotlight and a key injury took a toll, losing in the tourney to Marquette, 71-61. The previous year Missouri started 17-0 before stumbling in midseason, while Villanova won 16 of 17 to start the season, then broke down with injuries and poor play, finishing 3-10 SU and 1-12 ATS.

Kansas always seems to have the spotlight on it. This season they started great, then had some erratic play down the stretch, including losses at Oklahoma, Kansas State, West Virginia, Oklahoma State and Iowa State. The previous season the Jayhawks had a late season injury to 7-footer Joel Imbiid (11PPG, 8 RPG), the Big 12 Defensive Player of the Year, a huge blow.

The Jayhawks may have won the title seven years ago, but nine years ago it was a very different story: The Jayhawks started 20-1, only to go 3-6 straight up and 1-8 against the spread the last nine games. They never made it to the Final Four because of a 64-63 loss to Bucknell as a 13½-point favorite in the first round.

Other times an easy early season schedule, youth, bad coaching, untimely injuries, bad luck, poor team chemistry or a combination of these can cut down a potentially great team. Youth and a loss of its best players toppled Florida after winning back-to-back titles and prevented a North Carolina repeat in 2010.

Duke has seen its title hopes dashed in recent years, a stunning loss to Lehigh as 11-point chalk and last season getting bounced by Mercer, 78-71. This is nothing new. Gonzaga was taken down by Wichita two years ago, and four years ago No. 1 seed Pittsburgh saw its hopes crushed in a loss to Butler, 71-70. A few years ago No. 2 seed Georgetown took itself out of the tournament, blowing a 46-29 lead by trying to stall against Davidson with far too much time left.

It is very easy for sports bettors to look into trends to try and predict the future.

Trends can be helpful if there are reasons to support it. For example, from a betting perspective, what stands out about the last 10 Finals Fours?

2014
Florida 53 -6.5
UConn 63 - -126

Wisconsin 73 - 139
Kentucky 74 -2

2013
Wichita State 68 -131
Louisville 72 - -11

Syracuse 56 - 131
Michigan 61 -2

2012
Ohio State 62 - 3
Kansas 64 - 136

Louisville 61 - 136.5
Kentucky 69 -8

2011
Butler 70 - 3.5
VCU 62 - 133

Kentucky 55 - 131
UConn 56 - +2.5

2010
Butler 52 - 1.5
Michigan State 50 - 125

West Virginia 57 - 130
Duke 78 - -2.5

2009
Michigan State 82 - 135
UConn 73 - 4

North Carolina 83 - 7.5
Villanova 69 - 160

2008
Kansas 84 - 158
North Carolina 66 - 3

UCLA 63 - 135
Memphis 78 - 3

2007
Georgetown 60 - 1
Ohio St. 67 - 130

UCLA 66 - 131
Florida 76 - 3

2006
George Mason 58 - 132
Florida 73 - -6

LSU 45 - -2
UCLA 59 - 123

2005
Louisville 57 - 144
Illiniois 72 - -3

Michigan St. 71 - 153
North Carolina 87 - -2

2004
Georgia Tech 67 - 139
Oklahoma St. 65 - -4

UConn 79 - -2
Duke 78 - 144

2003
Marquette 61 - -4½
Kansas 94 - 153½

Syracuse 95 - 153
Texas 84 - -3

2002
Indiana 73 - 134
Oklahoma 64 -6½

Maryland 97 - 168
Kansas 88 - -1½

What stands out is that it has been the day of the dog. The underdog is 15-9-1 against the number, with 12 dogs winning straight up, including UConn last year. In addition, the games have gone 12-6 to the ‘under’ the last nine years.

You can even make an argument that this would be the right time of the season to take a shot with the ‘dog on the money-line. However, this is where one needs patience, because trends can also be a fool's paradise.

If you go back to the previous three Final Fours before the above content analysis, 1999-01, we find Duke topping Maryland 95-84, Arizona blowing out Michigan State 80-61, Michigan State beating Wisconsin 53-41, Florida topping North Carolina 71-59, UConn beating Ohio State 64-58 and Duke surviving Michigan State 68-62. What stands out is that the favorite won and covered in five of six, for a hefty 5-1 spread record.

Even looking at totals, a similar pattern emerges. The last 13 years the ‘over/under’ has been almost equal, 14-12 ‘under’ in the Final Four. The three years before that the ‘under’ prevailed at a 5-1 clip. All of a sudden, those who look solely at trends as the key to the sports betting kingdom are stuck at close to a .500 winning percentage ATS.

For the record, going back the last 20 years, the ‘under’ is 24-16 in the Final Four, with 21 ‘dogs covering while 18 favorites have gotten the money with one push. Again, trends are worth examining, but there needs to be reasons behind them if you're serious about putting down hard earned money on a side.

Perhaps the most significant stat that stands out is that 16 of the 21 dogs that covered ended up winning the game outright, which shows how competitive and relatively evenly matched the games become when teams get this far in the season.

Wisconsin (#1) vs Kentucky (#1)

Kentucky 8-2 SU & 3-5-2 ATS in 10 Final 4 appearances
Kentucky 3-0 SU & 1-0-2 ATS last 3 Final 4 appearances
Kentucky beat Wisconsin 74-73 in last year's (2014) Final 4
Wisconsin is 0-2 SU & 1-1 ATS in their only 2 Final 4 appearances
Kentucky 1-3 Over/Under last 4 Final 4 games

Michigan State (#7) vs Duke (#1)

Duke 4-1 SU & ATS last 5 Final 4 appearances
Duke 2-1 Over/Under in last 3 Final 4 games
Duke's last Final 4 appearance was 2010
MSU 0-2 SU & ATS last 2 Final 4 games
MSU 1-4 SU & ATS last 5 Final 4 appearances
MSU 2-3 Over/Under last 5 Final 4 games
MSU's last Final 4 appearance was 2010

NCAA Tournament Biggest Betting Mismatches: Final Four
By Logan breaks
Covers.com

Michigan State Spartans vs. Duke Blue Devils (-5, 138.5)

Spartans’ early turnovers vs. Blue Devils’ strong second halves

One of the reasons Michigan State has made it to the Final Four has been its ability to take care of the basketball. Through the first three games of the tournament, MSU coughed the ball up only 20 total times including just five turnovers against Oklahoma in the Sweet 16.

Those wheels wobbled a bit in the Elite Eight, with eight turnovers in the first half versus Louisville and 13 total turnovers for the game. The Spartans, overall, aren’t that sticky when it comes to taking care of the ball. They average 11.3 turnovers per game, the most of the four teams remaining in the tournament.

In its 81-71 loss to Duke in the regular season, Michigan State recorded 10 turnovers in the first half and 13 for the game, leading to 24 points for the Blue Devils. The Spartans fell behind – down 40-33 at half – and couldn’t battle back with Duke turning it up in the final 20 minutes.

The Blue Devils are among the best second-half teams in the tournament, averaging 40.5 points per second half this season – most of any of the Final Four contenders. Unlike, Louisville’s offense, Duke can pile it on and makes it very tough for even the most talented teams to dig themselves out of a hole. Michigan State pulled to within three points of the Blue Devils in the second half of that November 18 matchup before Duke erupted for a 13-3 run to seal the win.

Wisconsin Badgers vs. Kentucky Wildcats (-5, 131)

Badgers’ lack of bigs vs. Wildcats’ size surplus

The Badgers aren’t used to looking up at their opponents. Wisconsin came into the tournament with an average height of 79.2 inches or 6-foot-6, behind only the Kentucky Wildcats at 79.3 inches. It just so happen UK is Wisconsin’ tall task to topple for a shot at the national title.

These teams battled last year in the Final Four, but Kentucky ran a much smaller lineup, with two true big men and three guards. This season, the Wildcats march out a starting frontcourt that goes 7-foot, 6-foot-11, and 6-foot-10, and draws another 7-footer off the bench. Only one NBA team – the Minnesota Timberwolves – has more height than Kentucky.

Wisconsin tops out at 7-footer Frank Kaminsky and declines to 6-foot-9 Sam Dekker and 6-foot-7 Nigel Hayes in the starting lineup, bringing in 6-foot-9 Duje Dukan off the pine. There’s not a lot of depth when it comes to real size for the Badgers, who could get caught short handed if foul trouble comes into play. Wisconsin was whistled for 21 personal fouls in the Elite Eight against Arizona, which matched up pretty well with the Badgers in terms of height, and 13 of those calls were on the frontcourt. Kaminsky had four personal fouls alone, his highest total of the season.

Kentucky has drawn an average of 21.7 fouls per game in its last three NCAA contests, attempting 26.7 free throws per outing in that span. And the Wildcats make them count too, shooting better than 77 percent from the charity stripe. The Badgers were called for just 12.4 fouls a game on the year but that average has jumped to 17.3 in the last three NCAA games.