Final Four odds, trends and betting news.
Final Four Openers
VegasInsider.com
The 2017 NCAA Tournament started with 68 schools and after two weeks, the field is down to four. This year’s final quartet will feature three schools making the Final Four for the first time since the tournament expanded.
Also, it will have an East Coast vs. West Coast feel as Gonzaga and Oregon will look to knock off South Carolina and North Carolina respectively.
The University of Phoenix Stadium at Phoenix, Arizona will host the semifinals on Saturday Apr. 1 with the winners meeting in the championship game on Monday Apr. 3.
No. 1 Gonzaga vs. No. 7 South Carolina
Opening Odds: Gonzaga -6.5, Total 138
Gonzaga
Bid: Automatic
Conference: WCC
SU Record: 35-1
ATS Record: 23-9-2
O/U Record: 15-16
South Carolina
Bid: At-Large
Conference: SEC
SU Record: 26-10
ATS Record: 15-17-1
O/U Record: 14-17-1
How They Got Here
Gonzaga
Defeated No. 16 South Dakota State Jackrabbits 66-46 (Bulldogs -23.5, Total 157)
Defeated No. 8 Northwestern Wildcats 79-73 (Bulldogs -10.5, Total 140.5)
Defeated No. 4 West Virginia Mountaineers 61-58 (Bulldogs -3, Total 150)
Defeated No. 11 Xavier Musketeers 83-59 (Bulldogs -8.5, Total 145.5)
South Carolina
Defeated No. 10 Marquette Golden Eagles 93-73 (Pick 'em, Total 143.5)
Defeated No. 2 Duke Blue Devils 88-81 (Gamecocks +6.5, Total 145.5)
Defeated No. 3 Baylor Bears 70-50 (Gamecocks +3, Total 135.5)
Defeated No. 4 Florida Gators 77-70 (Gamecocks +3, total 136)
Betting Notes - Gonzaga
Gonzaga has gone 2-1-1 ATS in the NCAA Tournament
The 'under' is 3-1 in the four games for the Bulldogs
The Bulldogs have only allowed 59 points per game
Northwestern was the only school to score more than 40 points in a half against Gonzaga through the first four games
Betting Notes - South Carolina
South Carolina has gone 4-0 ATS in the NCAA Tournament
The Gamecoks have watched the 'over' go 3-1
South Carolina trailed at halftime in three of the first games of the tourney
The Gamecocks have outscored their first four opponents by a combined 52 points in the second-half
No. 1 North Carolina vs. No. 3 Oregon
Opening Odds: North Carolina -5, 149.5
North Carolina
Bid: At-Large
Conference: ACC
SU Record: 31-7
ATS Record: 18-16-3
O/U Record: 13-23-1
Oregon
Bid: At-Large
Conference: Pac-12
SU Record: 33-5
ATS Record: 22-15
O/U Record: 17-18
How They Got Here
Oregon
Defeated No. 14 Iona Gaels 93-77 (Ducks -15.5, Total 157)
Defeated No. 11 Rhode Island Rams 75-72 (Ducks -5, Total 144.5)
Defeated No. 7 Michigan Wolverines 69-68 (Pick 'em, Total 148)
Defeated No. 1 Kansas Jayhawks 74-60 (Ducks +6.5, Total 158)
North Carolina
Defeated No. 16 Texas Southern Tigers 103-64 (Tar Heels -26.5, Total 157)
Defeated No. 8 Arkansas Razorbacks 72-65 (Tar Heels -11.5, 165.5)
Defeated No. 4 Butler Bulldogs 92-80 (Tar Heels -7, Total 155)
Defeated No. 2 Kentucky Wildcats 75-73 (Tar Heels -2, Total 161)
Betting Notes - Oregon
Oregon has gone 3-1 ATS in the NCAA Tournament
The 'over/under' has produced a 2-2 mark during this event
The Ducks have held double-digit leads in three of their four games
Oregon has only allowed 32 PPG in the second-half of the tourney, with Iona (40) having the most success
The Ducks have scored more points in the first-half in all four of their wins
Oregon hasn't had a very productive effort at the free throw line, hitting 64.7 percent (46-of-71)
Betting Notes - North Carolina
North Carolina has gone 2-1-1 ATS in the NCAA Tournament
The 'over/under' has produced a 2-2 mark during this event
The Tar Heels have built halftime leads in their four games
UNC only surrendered 32.5 in the first-half of those games
Final Four lines hit the board and early betting action causes adjustments
By Patrick Everson
Covers.com
We’ve got a fascinating Final Four on tap, with one blueblood and a whole lot of new blood. Covers checks on the opening lines for Saturday’s national semifinals, with insights from Jeff Stoneback, sportsbook manager at The Mirage on the Las Vegas Strip, and Scott Cooley, odds consultant for offshore sportsbook Bookmaker.eu.
No. 7 South Carolina Gamecocks vs. No. 1 Gonzaga Bulldogs (-6.5)
For all the years Gonzaga has been in the NCAA Tournament, often as a high seed, this will mark its first trip to the Final Four. The Bulldogs (36-1 SU, 23-9-2 ATS) have a nearly perfect record on the floor, and for much of the season were the best team against the oddsmakers. The Zags rate No. 2 now, cashing more than 71 percent of the time.
Mark Few’s squad had tough second- and third-round games, fending off No. 8 seed Northwestern and No. 4 seed West Virginia. But the Zags had no such issues with tourney upstart and No. 11 seed Xavier in the Elite Eight, pummeling the Musketeers 83-59 as an 8.5-point favorite Saturday.
South Carolina is also making its first trip to the Final Four, and a surprising one at that, when one looks at how Frank Martin’s team entered the tournament. The Gamecocks (26-10 SU, 15-16-2 ATS) went 2-5 SU and 1-6 ATS in seven games prior to the NCAAs, but have caught fire the last week and a half.
South Carolina drubbed No. 10 Marquette by 20 in the tourney opener, then upset No. 2 seed Duke 88-81 as a 6.5-point underdog. Another 20-point win followed in the Sweet 16, over No. 3 Baylor, and the Gamecocks sealed their trip to Glendale, Ariz., by outlasting SEC rival and fourth-seeded Florida 77-70 as a 3-point ‘dog in the East Region final Sunday.
Bookmaker.eu opened the Zags -7 but quickly dropped that number to 6.5.
“We’ve seen early action on the Gamecocks,” Cooley said. “We've received a handful of limit bets from smart players. We could see South Carolina closing at +6 or less.”
Offshore books moving to 6.5 made it natural for The Mirage and MGM Resorts sportsbooks to open Gonzaga -6.5.
“That was basically the number out there, and that’s what we hung,” Stoneback said of the line for Saturday’s first semifinal, which tips at 6:09 p.m. ET. “South Carolina-Gonzaga is obviously not gonna be the marquee matchup, but as a basketball fan, I think it’s a really good matchup. We’ll see how Gonzaga handles a red-hot South Carolina team.”
No. 3 Oregon Ducks vs. No. 1 North Carolina Tar Heels (-4.5)
North Carolina is back in the Final Four for the second straight year, getting there with a thrilling victory Sunday in the South Region final. The Tar Heels (30-7 SU, 19-15-2 ATS) went back-and-forth with No. 2 seed Kentucky over the last few minutes, but got the dagger bucket in the last second to notch a 75-73 win and push as a 2-point favorite.
Carolina reached the national championship game last year, where it had a similar back-and-forth with Villanova as the Heels lost on a last-second 3-pointer, 77-74 giving 2 points.
Oregon played in the very first Final Four, in 1939, and ended up winning it all. But the Ducks hadn’t been back since then before breaking through this year. Oregon (33-5 SU, 21-15-1 ATS) lost 6-foot-10 forward Chris Boucher (11.8 ppg, 6.1 rpg) during the Pac-12 tournament, but recovered quite well in winning the Midwest Region.
Dana Altman’s troops had a couple tight victories in the second and third rounds, rallying to beat No. 11 seed Rhode Island and hanging on against No. 7 Michigan. But in Saturday’s regional final against No. 1 seed Kansas, Oregon rolled to a 74-60 upset catching 6.5 points.
Cooley said this second semifinal, with an 8:49 ET start Saturday night, also received some limit bets early on from sharp bettors. And the total was already on the move, after opening at 148.5.
“The over is seeing respected money, and we've moved that up 1.5 points to 150,” Cooley said.
The Mirage opened North Carolina at -5.
Final Four Primer
By Brian Edwards
VegasInsider.com
The 2017 Final Four will feature a blue blood from Tobacco Road (North Carolina), a pair of newcomers (South Carolina and Gonzaga) and a school that hasn’t ventured into this territory since 1939 (Oregon).
The Gamecocks had lost six of their previous nine games entering the Tournament and hadn’t heard their name called on Selection Sunday since Dave Odom was their coach in 2004. They trailed at halftime in three of their four Tourney games and hadn’t been victorious in a Tourney contest since 1973 before beating Marquette in the Round of 64.
The Ducks lost their starting center and one of the nation’s best rim protectors (Chris Boucher) in the Pac-12 Tournament semifinals. The Tar Heels trailed by five against Arkansas in the Round of 32 with less than three minutes left, while the ‘Zags had been denied entry into the national semifinals despite their presence in 19 consecutive Tourneys, 18 of which had come since Mark Few took over at the school based out of Spokane, WA.
This is what happens in March when form rarely holds and unexpected occurrences rule the day more often than not.
Since I was in New York City watching USC at Madison Square Garden all weekend, let’s start with Frank Martin’s team. I was introduced to Martin, the former assistant coach at Miami Senior High School to legendary prep head coach ‘Shaky’ Rodriguez, in the summer of 1991 at Daytona Mainland Beach High School.
I was playing on an AAU team based out of the Big Bend Region (Tallahassee, Florida, and beyond 60 or so miles in three directions). We were playing Miami Senior’s AAU team, but I guess ‘Shaky’ let his assistants do the coaching during the summer, so Martin was the head man for this game.
As I sat about 15 rows behind South Carolina’s bench on Sunday, there were moments in which I could hear his beaming voice despite the presence of a sold-out crowd of more than 20,000 fans at the greatest basketball venue on this planet. Therefore, you can imagine how loud he could be heard in a high-school gym in Daytona while still cutting his teeth at the prep level.
Just as I’ve said on radio and written many times recently and over the past several years, I thought Martin was a home-run hire for USC when the school snatched him away from Kansas State. Martin saw what Steve Spurrier saw in Columbia – great facilities, a rabid fan base, but little-to-no expectations based on basically zero success over decades upon decades of mediocrity.
And that’s probably why Martin was still around for a fifth season despite failing to get an NCAA Tourney invite in four straight years. Kansas State didn’t miss a beat under Martin when Bob Huggins bolted back to his old West Virginia home. He had the Wildcats in the Elite Eight in his third season at the helm.
Martin won at least 21 games in all five of his seasons at K-State. He took the school to four NCAAs and one NIT, never once getting ousted in the first round. Therefore, I was at a loss for why it was taking him so long to get it going at South Carolina, especially at a time when the SEC was down -- really down if your name wasn’t Kentucky or Florida.
And it wasn’t as if he wasn’t thriving on the recruiting trail. Sindarius Thornwell, Duane Notice and P.J. Dozier were wanted by a plethora of big-name schools, but chose South Carolina ahead of them all.
Thornwell and Notice are the senior leaders of this team. Thornwell garnered Most Outstanding Player of the East Region after bullying his team into the Final Four with a combination of skill, power, leadership and desire. In short, he has been nothing shy of sensational in the 2017 Big Dance.
Trailing Florida by seven at intermission Sunday at MSG, Thornwell quickly got his team going in the second half. We should note also that Martin stuck with Thornwell despite getting his second foul with more than six minutes left in the first half, in addition to his third fairly early in the second half. Nevertheless, he still played 36 minutes because Martin knew he could trust his senior.
When the Gators sliced the deficit to two with 51 seconds remaining, I guess Thornwell had trust in Notice as he precariously moved closer to being whistled for a five-second call on an inbounds pass. In this situation, you don’t want to make a high-risk entry pass, but nobody was open and Notice opted to go long.
Thornwell heaved a dangerous length-of-the-floor baseball pass to the streaking Notice. It appeared as if he had overthrown him or that the ball might hit the backboard. Notice made an amazing catch and at this point in the story, we’re supposed to look past the fact that he clearly travelled (perhaps twice?) as he caught the ball.
Alas, regardless of the lack of a whistle, it worked out perfect for USC. Instead of being called for a walk, which would’ve given UF the ball down two with 51 seconds and a chance to go 2-for-1, Notice gathered the catch, took a few dribbles and was fouled. He made both free throws, UF missed and fouled again, and it was time for the fat lady to take the microphone.
Thornwell scored 26 points and grabbed seven rebounds in the 77-70 win over UF as a three-point underdog. Dozier added 17, while Chris Silva produced 13 points and nine rebounds in only 21 minutes of action due to foul trouble.
USC has won a pair of games by 20 points (over Marquette and Baylor) and outscored Florida and Duke by 14 points apiece in the second half en route to comeback victories.
No other team comes to Glendale with more confidence. Waiting for USC will be the ‘Zags, who as of Tuesday were listed as 6.5-point favorites. The total was 138, while the ‘Cocks were +250 on the money line (risk $100 to win $250).
Gonzaga shredded its mid-major label long ago, well before Butler, Wichita State and VCU did the same. The Bulldogs made their splash on the national scene with Casey Calvary’s game-winning putback to beat Florida in the 1999 West Region semifinals. They haven’t gone anywhere since, except, of course, to the Final Four.
Butler, Wichita State and VCU have made the national semifinals since then, while the original mid-major turned power program was unable to get over that hurdle. Call it a coincidence if you wish, but Gonzaga is finally in the Final Four in the same city (Phoenix/Glendale) where Calvary’s magic got the ball rolling in that direction.
Like Few said after a thrilling West Region semifinal win over West Virginia this past Thursday, he’s never given much thought to “any monkeys, dogs or cats” on his back for not making the Final Four during an iconic 19-year tenure that hasn’t once seen his team absent from the NCAA field. Whether that quote was factual or not, it’s irrelevant after Gonzaga absolutely dominated 11th-seeded Xavier in an 83-59 win Saturday night in San Jose.
It was the Bulldogs’ first spread cover of the Tournament as 8.5-point favorites. Few has had Final-Four talent a few times out of those 18 previous NCAA teams, but it’s been unanimous all year that this has been his best collection of talent ever. They have it all covered – a star in Nigel Williams-Goss, defense (ranked fourth in the nation), shooting (ranked second in the country), size (three seven-footers and five players standing 6’10” or taller), speed and experience.
Williams-Goss was the catalyst against the Musketeers, producing 23 points, eight rebounds, two steals, one block and four assists without a turnover. Johnathan Allen added 19 points, eight boards, three blocks and a pair of steals.
North Carolina is the lone No. 1 seed standing. A quarter-century after Christian Laettner crushed the hearts of the Kentucky faithful in the 1992 NCAA Tourney, UNC’s Luke Maye took his turn by draining an 18-foot jumper from the left wing with 0.3 seconds remaining to lift the Tar Heels to a 75-73 victory. Playing the role of Sean Woods circa ’92, UK’s Malik Monk had hit a fadeaway trey with 7.2 seconds remaining to tie the game.
The Tar Heels, who were beaten at the buzzer by Villanova’s Kris Jenkins in last year’s finals, remain alive in search of giving Ol’ Roy a third national title. Justin Jackson had 19 points, five rebounds and four assists in the victory over UK, while Maye contributed 17 points, three boards and two assists without a turnover in 20 minutes of playing time from off of the bench. Maye buried all three of his free throws, 6-of-9 attempts from the field and 2-of-3 launches from 3-point range.
Oregon was nearly ousted in the first weekend by Rhode Island. However, Tyler Dorsey wasn’t going to allow that to happen to Dana Altman’s team. Dorsey hit 9-of-10 shots, including 4-of-5 from downtown, against the Rams. With the Round-of-32 showdown tied with 11 seconds left, Dorsey buried a deep 3-ball to spark his team to the Sweet 16.
Facing red-hot Michigan at Sprint Center in Kansas City on Thursday night in the Midwest semifinals, Dorsey knocked down 5-of-7 from long distance en route to a team-high 20-point effort. Still, the Ducks advanced only after Wolverines’ senior star Derrick Walton, who had seemingly hit every big shot he took the entire month of March, left a potential game-winning triple just a tad short at the buzzer.
This left Oregon to take on top-seeded Kansas in what was essentially a road game in KC. After all, KU was playing at Sprint Center for the sixth time this season. The Jayhawks were favored by 6.5 points, but they were routed from the opening tip.
Guess who stole the show yet again? That would be Mr. Dorsey, the sophomore guard who has secured him and his family millions of dollars in future earning over the last few weeks. His amazing shooting pace was featuring again as he dropped 27 points on the Jayhawks. Dorsey made 9-of-13 from the field and 6-of-10 from beyond the arc.
Dillon Brooks added 17 points, five boards and four assists, while Jordan Bell was a monster in the paint. Bell tallied 11 points (5-of-6 FGs), 13 rebounds, four assists and EIGHT blocked shots.
As of Tuesday, UNC was listed as a five-point ‘chalk’ versus the Ducks, who are +185 on the money line (risk $100 to win $185). The total was at 151 points.
South Carolina and Gonzaga are scheduled to tip Saturday at 6:05 p.m. Eastern on CBS. UNC and Oregon will go off 30 minutes after the conclusion of the ‘Zags and ‘Cocks.
Final Four Trends
By Marc Lawrence
VegasInsider.com
Final 4 Fast Facts - Saturday
Best and Worst ATS records in the Final 4 round:
-- Dogs off 4 consecutive ATS wins (South Carolina) are 4-13-1 ATS
-- Favorites off a win of 20 or more points (Gonzaga) are 1-5 ATS
-- Favorites of 4 or more points who scored 80 or more points in the Elite 8 round (Gonzaga) are 2-8 ATS
-- Teams who win the game SU are 44-7-1 ATS
Final 4 Team Seed Facts - Saturday
Best and Worst Team team seed records in the Final 4 round:
-- No. 1 seeds (Gonzaga and North Carolina) are 5-1 ATS
-- No. 3 seeds (Oregon) are 4-1 ATS
-- No. 5 or lower seed (South Carolina) dogs of less than 7 points are 0-6 ATS
Final 4 Conference Records - Saturday
Best and Worst conference records in the Final 4 round:
-- ACC teams (North Carolina) are 7-2 ATS
-- Pac-12 dogs (Oregon) of more than 3 points are 3-0 ATS
-- SEC teams (South Carolina) are 1-5-1 ATS
Final Four Prop Sheet
VegasInsider.com
The 2017 Final Four takes place at University of Phoenix Stadium in Glendale, Arizona starting Saturday with the national semifinals. Two top seeds remain as Gonzaga and North Carolina are both favored on Saturday. The Bulldogs are in their first Final Four, facing upstart South Carolina in the early matchup, while the Tar Heels square off with Oregon in the late game. Below are the props for the tournament, courtesy of Sportsbook.ag.
Most Outstanding Player Odds
Nigel Williams-Goss (Gonzaga) 7/2
Justin Jackson (North Carolina) 4/1
Joel Berry II (North Carolina) 11/5
Dillon Brooks (Oregon) 15/2
Sindarius Thornwell (South Carolina) 15/2
Tyler Dorsey (Oregon) 15/2
Kennedy Meeks (North Carolina) 8/1
Johnathan Williams (Gonzaga) 9/1
Isaiah Hicks (North Carolina) 15/1
Jordan Mathews (Gonzaga) 15/1
Jordan Bell (Oregon) 20/1
Przemek Karnowski (Gonzaga) 22/1
Dylan Ennis (Oregon) 35/1
PJ Dozier (South Carolina) 50/1
Chris Silva (South Carolina) 60/1
Duane Notice (South Carolina) 60/1
Who will win NCAA Tournament?
Gonzaga
YES +180
NO -225
North Carolina
YES +130
NO -160
Oregon
YES +475
NO -700
South Carolina
YES +800
NO -1600
Double Result
South Carolina vs Gonzaga
Gonzaga Half / Gonzaga Game 10/17
South Carolina Half / South Carolina Game 4/1
Gonzaga Half / South Carolina Game 11/2
South Carolina Half / Gonzaga Game 7/1
Tie Half / Gonzaga Game 18/1
Tie Half / South Carolina Game 22/1
Oregon vs North Carolina
UNC Half / UNC Game 10/13
Oregon Half / Oregon Game 3/1
UNC Half / Oregon Game 5/1
Oregon Half / UNC Game 13/2
Tie Half / UNC Game 16/1
Tie Half / Oregon Game 20/1
National Championship Results
North Carolina Beats Gonzaga 11/5
Gonzaga Beats North Carolina 7/2
Gonzaga Beats Oregon 9/2
North Carolina Beats South Carolina 11/2
Oregon Beats Gonzaga 13/2
Oregon Beats South Carolina 10/1
South Carolina Beats North Carolina 12/1
South Carolina Beats Oregon 15/1