Final Four News and Notes

Road to Detroit: A look at the games in the Final Four
By ASSOCIATED PRESS

The Big East has two teams in the Final Four, but it's Michigan State who will be hosting the party. Here's a look at the matchups Saturday in Detroit:

CONNECTICUT (31-4) vs. MICHIGAN STATE (30-6)

LINE: UConn -4

GETTING THERE

Connecticut has managed to navigate its way through a maze of off-court problems to reach the Final Four for a third time, all in the last 11 years. Coach Jim Calhoun missed the tournament opener as he was hospitalized to treat dehydration, but the Huskies were dominant on the defensive end in a couple of blowout wins. The day before the regional semifinals, a published report alleged the program broke NCAA recruiting rules, but the team refused to be distracted, beating Purdue and Missouri to advance. The defense has dominated all tournament as no opponent has shot better than 41 percent against the Huskies, who have 25 blocked shots in the four games.

Michigan State rode its trademark defense and rebounding - and threw in some balanced scoring - to get to play in a Final Four just 90 miles from campus. The Spartans capped the four-game run by beating overall No. 1 seed Louisville, which was looking to join fellow Big East teams Connecticut and Villanova in the national semifinals. Eight Spartans scored in double figures over the four games, but it was the steady play inside and sudden offense of Goran Suton that allowed the Spartans to reach the Final Four for the fifth time since 1999. The regional semifinal win over defending national champion Kansas will become the signature win in the run as the Spartans overcame a 13-point first-half deficit and went 16-of-17 from the free throw to rally for the win.

THE ROAD

No. 1 Connecticut beat No. 16 Chattanooga 103-47; No. 9 Texas A&M 92-66; No. 5 Purdue 72-60; No. 3 Missouri 82-75.

No. 2 Michigan State beat No. 15 Robert Morris 77-62; No. 10 Southern California 74-69; No. 3 Kansas 67-62; No. 1 Louisville 64-52.

THE COACHES

Every time Jim Calhoun has taken Connecticut to a Final Four he has left with a national championship. His 804 career wins is sixth on the all-time list, but he's facing a week of questions about the recruiting allegations.

Tom Izzo has taken Michigan State to the Final Four four times, winning it all in 2000, with his last appearance in 2005. Every player who has stayed for years under Izzo has reached the Final Four.

THE PLAYERS

The first Connecticut player you notice is 7-foot-3 Hasheem Thabeet. His ability to alter and block shots allows the Huskies to get going on offense. Jerome Dyson had been the team's best perimeter shooter and defender, but he injured his knee in early February and was lost for the season. It took a while for players to step up and fill the void, but A.J. Price and Stanley Robinson have increased their scoring averages over the last seven games. And freshman Kemba Walker had a breakout performance with 23 points and five assists against Missouri. Senior forward Jeff Adrien is often overlooked in the balanced attack, but he averages a double-double.

Kalin Lucas, the Big Ten's player of the year, leads the Spartans in scoring and assists, but Suton, who missed six games early in the season with a knee injury, has become the team's steadying force. The senior center averages 10.1 points and 8.3 rebounds, numbers that grew to 19.5 and 9.5 in the Spartans' last two wins. Travis Walton, the conference's defensive player of the year, is a standout shutdown defender. He was one of the keys in ending Louisville's 14-game winning streak and holding the Cardinals 23 points below their average.

HISTORY

Connecticut's NCAA success has all been recent. Calhoun has led the Huskies to all but four of their 46 tournament wins since 1990, including two national championships.

Michigan State's first national championship is one of college basketball's most famous as Magic Johnson led the Spartans over Larry Bird and Indiana State in 1979. Mateen Cleaves was the leader of the team that won it all in 2000, the middle year of three straight Final Four appearances under Izzo.

INTANGIBLES

The Huskies must show the off-court issues won't affect how they play, something they have been good at over the years. They also must handle a crowd - a big crowd of about 75,000 - that will be wearing a lot of green.

Many coaches contend it's always better to get away during a tournament, but the Spartans will end this one in front of plenty family and friends. Forward Raymar Morgan, second on the Spartans in scoring (10.5) and rebounding (5.4), struggled this tournament before breaking his nose against Kansas. He played the first half against Louisville wearing a protective mask then ditched it in the second but still finished without any points.

VILLANOVA (30-7) vs. NORTH CAROLINA (32-4)

Line: UNC -8

GETTING THERE

The argument can be made that no team in the tournament has played defense the way Villanova has. The Wildcats followed an early 3-point scare from American with smothering defensive performances against UCLA and Duke before surviving a Big East battle with Pittsburgh in the regional final. Despite not having any real size, the Wildcats have plenty of perimeter players who get out and defend and convert almost every turnover into points. It wasn't all defense, however, as the Wildcats scored at least 77 points in the four games. Except for the opener when Dwayne Anderson and Dante Cunningham both had 25 points, it has been a balanced attack despite struggles from 3-point range.

Except for the first half of the LSU game in the second round, no team has really challenged North Carolina, and the Tar Heels even pulled away for a 14-point win over the Tigers. The biggest worry has been Ty Lawson's toe injury, but after missing the opener against Radford, he has looked like the point guard who was the Atlantic Coast Conference player of the year. The Tar Heels almost matched their season average of 90 points per game in the tournament, but it was their defense that stood out, especially in the regional final as they held Oklahoma to 60 points, 19 below its average.
THE ROAD

No. 3 Villanova beat No. 14 American 80-67; No. 6 UCLA 89-69; No. 2 Duke 77-54; No. 1 Pittsburgh 78-76.

No. 1 North Carolina beat No. 16 Radford 101-58; No. 8 LSU 84-70; No. 4 Gonzaga 98-77; No. 2 Oklahoma 72-60.

THE COACHES

Villanova's Jay Wright is the Final Four rookie among the coaches, but his program has been very successful, reaching the round of 16 four of the last five years. He is a disciple of Rollie Massimino, the man who led the Wildcats to their stunning national championship in 1985. There is no doubt he will be the best-dressed of the four coaches.

Roy Williams is making his third Final Four appearance, and second straight, with North Carolina, having won it all in 2005. He took Kansas to the Final Four four times from 1991-2003, and was an assistant to Dean Smith for several of his trips with North Carolina, including the 1982 national championship.

THE PLAYERS

Cunningham was the Big East's most improved player this season, one in which the undersized center went at it game after game in a physical conference. Scottie Reynolds has been the Wildcats' go-to guy, and he was just that in the regional final when his driving layup with .5 seconds left won the game. There are a lot of role players on the roster. Each has had an impact from Dwayne Anderson's buzzer-beating layup against Marquette in the Big East tournament to Reggie Redding coming up big in the victory over Pittsburgh in the regular season. Then there are the Coreys off the bench - Corey Fisher, the slashing guard, and Corey Stokes, the team's best 3-point shooter.

Tyler Hansbrough, the reigning national player of the year, doesn't seem to have any school or ACC records left, but he's still looking for his first championship. His averages of 21.3 points and 8.3 rebounds don't begin to tell how important he is to this team. Then there's Lawson, whose speed and open-court ballhandling make the Tar Heels the offensive power they are. In his three tournament games he averaged 20.3 points with 20 assists and a near-perfect two turnovers. There are plenty of other scorers, including Wayne Ellington and Danny Green, who both shoot better than 40 percent from 3-point range.

HISTORY

Villanova was in the first Final Four in 1939, and the Wildcats were one of UCLA's many runners-up, losing to the Bruins in 1971. But it's the 1985 team - as an 8 seed the lowest to ever win it all - that is remembered for the almost perfect second half in a stunning win over Georgetown and Patrick Ewing.

North Carolina tied UCLA with its 18th Final Four appearance, and the Tar Heels could tie Indiana for third place on the national championship list with their fifth title.

INTANGIBLES

The Wildcats were never atop the powerful Big East all season, but they were in the Top 25 all season and near the top 10 for the last month. They don't mind being overlooked, but it will be interesting to see how they handle being part of college basketball's showcase event.

North Carolina is the only team with players who have Final Four experience. The big four of Hansbrough, Lawson, Green and Ellington all returned with the goal of winning a national championship and are the only ones in the semifinals with that kind of pressure.

Opening line report: NCAA Final Four
By Stephen Nover

It’s all about the Big East Conference and North Carolina.

That’s what this basketball season has been about and that’s where things stand now heading into the Final Four of the NCAA Tournament.

There is one exception – Michigan State. The Big Ten hasn’t been worthy of much respect. But the Spartans could be. So maybe there shouldn’t be mild surprise that the Spartans are just 4-point underdogs to Connecticut.

“The Big Ten doesn’t deserve much respect, but this team (Michigan State) can play with anybody,” said Mike Seba, a senior oddsmaker for Las Vegas Sports Consultants.

The Spartans had their hammer, nails and tool kit working on Sunday, upsetting Louisville, 64-52. Now they meet the Huskies in the early semi-final Saturday game at Ford Field in Detroit. Michigan State is located in East Lansing, Mich., so this is almost a home game for the Spartans.

“That’s worth one or 1.5 points,” Seba said. “On a dead neutral court, the line would have been 5.5 or 6. I think 4 is a good number.

“Connecticut has been so dominant. You can only give Michigan State so much for the game being played in Detroit.”

The Huskies have covered all four of their NCAA Tournament games beating Chattanooga, Texas A&M, Purdue and Missouri by a combined 101 points.

Keep in mind, though, the Huskies now will have almost a week to hear about recruiting allegations. This could intensify with increased scrutiny during Final Four week.

“That might affect them,” Seba said. “People might not be aware yet either that this game is being played in Detroit. So we may see Michigan State money.”

The Huskies also continue to be without injured guard Jerome Dyson.

The total currently is at 135. LVSC’s opening recommendation was 131.

“We opened the total too low,” Seba said. “Connecticut has been playing high. The Huskies are a tough team to figure because they like to run, but also can play half court because of Hasheem Thabeet. They are very versatile.”

North Carolina is 7.5-point chalk against Villanova in Saturday’s other semifinal matchup. Some places even had the Tar Heels at -8. LVSC’s send-out line was Tar Heels -6.5.

“That’s an overreaction,” LVSC linesmaker Dan O’Brien said about North Carolina being 8-point favorites against Villanova following the Tar Heels’ impressive 72-60 victory against Oklahoma.

North Carolina is a huge public team. But the Big East Conference commands tremendous reverence, which is a plus for Villanova. The Wildcats have already taken out Duke and Pittsburgh as short underdogs.

“We were a little short on North Carolina,” Seba said. “But you have to give Villanova its respect.”

LVSC suggested a 162 total on the Wildcats-Tar Heels matchup. The over/under currently is 160.

The North Carolina-Oklahoma total closed 164. The Tar Heels defeated the Sooners, 72-60, for a total of 132 points.

“The Carolina-Oklahoma total went way low,” Seba said. “That affected this total. That’s the reason this total is so low.

“But people like to bet over. There could be value in the over. I wouldn’t be surprised if the total gets some over play.”

Final Four Tip Off!!
sportspic.com

It'll be #2 seeded Michigan State Spartans and #1 seeded Connecticut Huskies tipping things off in the Final Four at Ford Field Saturday.

UConn dominant in knocking off Chattanooga, Texas A&M by a combined total of 82 points in the first two rounds had themselves a fight in the next two rounds against defense-oriented Boilermakers (72-60) and Mizzou (82-75) but in the end prevailed moving the mark to 31-4 (15-14 ATS) on the season. UConn comes into the Final Four averaging an outstanding 78.5 PPG on 47.6% shooting lead by top scorer A.J. Price (14.7), Jeff Adrien (13.7) and Hasheem Thabeet (13.5). At the other end, UConn surrenders a measily 63.7 to the opposition on a lowly 37.6% shooting effort. Cashing all four tickets this Tourney the Huskies enter a 10-9-1 ATS it's last 20 NCAA Tournament games along with a vig losing 10-10-1 ATS it's L20 laying six or less points.

Meanwhile, Spartans the Big Ten regular season champions behind aggressive man-to-man defense knocked off Robert Morris (77-62), USC (74-69), Kansas (67-62) and most recently the Tournament top seeded Louisville (64-52) moving it's record to 30-6 with a cash stuffing 20-12-1 mark at the betting window. Spartans led by Kalin Lucas (14.6), Goran Sutton (10.4) record 71.8 PPG while allowing 62.7 PPG on 41.4% from the field, 31.6% from outside. Spartans prolific rebounding makes them a dangerous foe, Tom Isso's team has grabbed 138 rebounds this tourney including 46 second chance opportunities. Spartans cashing all four of it's tourney tickets enter 14-6 ATS it's last nineteen dancing, 17-7 ATS it's L24 on a neutral court and a profitable 25-12 ATS the past three years in non-conference clashes.

Sportsbooks have pegged Huskies -4 to -4.5 point favorites with the total set at 134.

Final Four Primer
By Brian Edwards

The lines are out and the future odds have been adjusted for the 2009 Final Four this weekend in Detroit. North Carolina remains the ‘chalk.’ The Tar Heels, who opened as 2/1 favorites at the start of the NCAA Tournament, were adjusted to 10/11 odds (risk $110 to win $100) by Las Vegas Sports Consultants on Sunday night. Since then, most books have moved UNC to a minus-165 price to cut the nets down Monday night (risk $165 to win $100).

Roy Williams' team advanced to Motown by capturing a 72-60 win over No. 2 seed Oklahoma in the South Region finals. The Heels easily covered the number as seven-point favorites.

As he has been since returning to the lineup in a second-round win over LSU, Ty Lawson was the catalyst. He scored 19 points, grabbed five rebounds, dished out five assists and had three steals and just one turnover.

LVSC opened North Carolina as a 6 1/2-point favorite for Saturday’s prime-time game against Villanova. The total was 162 on the send-out. As of early Wednesday morning, most books had moved UNC to a 7 1/2-point 'chalk' with the total settling into the 159-160 range. Bettors can earn a generous return by backing Villanova to win outright at plus-300 odds (risk $100 to win $300).

Jay Wright’s team knocked off top-seeded Pitt in Saturday’s thriller. Scottie Reynolds drove the length of the court and scored the game winner with 0.5 seconds left to send ‘Nova back to the national semifinals for the first time since 1985. The Wildcats won outright as two-point underdogs.

Villanova’s future number was moved to 4/1 by LVSC on Sunday compared to the 40/1 odds it was sporting coming into the tournament. The Wildcats are a little more generous at most spots now, listed at plus-500 (risk $100 to win $500).

Michigan St. also had 4/1 odds Sunday after opening at 25/1. The second-seeded Spartans, who dominated Louisville in the Midwest Region finals by cruising to a 64-52 victory as seven-point underdogs, now have future odds of plus-455 at most books.

Gamblers who backed Michigan St. on the money line against the Cards collected a tasty plus-270 payout (paid $270 on $100 wagers). The win sets up a showdown with UConn in Saturday’s lid-lifter that’s slated to tip at 6:05 p.m. Eastern on CBS.

Tom Izzo has MSU in the Final Four for the fifth time. The Spartans won the 2000 title by beating Florida behind Mateen Cleaves, Charlie Bell and Mo Peterson.

LVSC opened UConn as a 4 ½-point favorite with a total of 131. As of early Wednesday morning, most spots had the Huskies as four-point favorites with the total bumped up to 134.

Jim Calhoun’s team beat Missouri 82-75 in Saturday’s West Region finals in Glendale. The Huskies covered as 5 ½-point favorites thanks to 10 consecutive made free throws in the final minute and a missed lay-up by the Tigers with one second left. Kemba Walker was the catalyst with 23 points off the bench.

UConn was given 5/1 odds to win it all on Selection Sunday. That number is now plus-225 at most spots.

**B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets**

--I talked to LVSC's Kenny White on Monday and he gave me the following numbers for these potential finals matchups:

UNC -6 1/2 vs. Michigan St.
UNC -5 1/2 vs. UConn
Michigan St. -2 vs. 'Nova
UConn -2 vs. 'Nova

--LVSC oddsmaker Mike Seba had a slightly different view and also offered his totals for the potential contests.

UNC -6 1/2, 152 1/2 vs. Michigan St.
UNC -4, 159 vs. UConn
Michigan St. pick 'em, 140 vs. 'Nova
UConn -1.5, 147 1/2 vs. 'Nova

--Here's my stab at it:
UNC -7, 148 vs. Michigan St.
UNC - 4, 160 1/2 vs. UConn
Michigan St. -1 1/2, 136 vs. 'Nova
UConn -3 1/2, 148 vs. 'Nova

--Seth Curry has announced that he will transfer to Duke. Curry, the son of Dell and the younger brother of Stephen, led all freshmen in scoring this year at Liberty. He will have to sit out the 2009-2010 season and will be eligible the following year.

--Izzo is undefeated against Rick Pitino (1-0) and Billy Donovan (3-0) in head-to-head meetings.

--If Michigan St. and UNC advance to meet in the national-title game next Monday, it will be a rematch of a Dec. 3 game that was also played at Ford Field. On that night, Carolina trounced the Spartans by a 98-63 count. However, we should note that Goran Suton didn’t play in the first meeting.

--Speaking of Suton, his shooting was the catalyst in what to me was a stunner in Michigan State’s upset of Louisville. Out of respect for the Spartans, it should be considered a moderate upset rather than stunning, but I (ignorantly) was extremely surprised to see Terrence Williams and Co. go down. For one thing, I certainly expected a better performance out of Williams, who had only five points on 1-of-7 shooting. The box score will tell you that Earl Clark finished with a team-high 19 points, but don't let that lead you to believe that Clark played well. In fact, he was terrible all day. Clark, the biggest player on the court who played all 40 minutes, had just three defensive rebounds compared to 12 offensive boards for Michigan St. And don't get me started on freshman center Samardo Samuels. Twenty-three years after "Never Nervous" Pervis Ellison led the Cardinals to the national title as a freshman, U of L's rookie big man failed miserably to rise to the occasion. Samuels took a bagel in the scoring column, missing all six shots and air-balling a five-footer at one point in the first half.

--I don’t know that I’ve EVER seen a team play as lethargic as Oklahoma did Sunday in an Elite Eight game. Without exception until a way-too-late spurt at around the 4-minute mark, the Sooners walked the ball up the court on every possession of the second half even though they trailed by double digits the entire time. Where was the intensity? Where was the sense of urgency? I understand that OU is shy on depth and at times needs to pace itself. Furthermore, I realize the game plan was to not get into a running game with UNC. But when you’re trailing by 15-21 points with less than 12 minutes remaining, you don’t walk the ball up the court at a pedestrian pace.

--Memo to talented Oklahoma freshman guard Willie Warren: I know you hit a few shots late, but those were well after the outcome was decided. Before that, the NBA scouts had to be mortified by your performance and lack of intensity against North Carolina. When Warren was taken out of the game with more than eight minutes left, he went to the bench and put a towel over his head. As the cameras zoomed in on Warren, there was zero perspiration on his face and a look of complete disinterest. Willie, this isn’t a regular-season game against Arkansas Pine-Bluff. This is the Elite Eight. Even on a bad shooting night, you have to bring your A-Game in terms of effort.

vegasinsider.com

A Look at the Final Four
By Scott Spreitzer

One of the truisms of handicapping big time games in Las Vegas is that, believe it or not, the pointspread doesn’t matter!

Let’s not go off the deep end here. The pointspread always matters. It’s just that in big games, a half point here or there rarely come into play. If it’s a small spread, the favorite wins by a medium or large amount or loses outright. If it’s a medium spread, you either see an upset over an arrogant favorite or a blowout from the superior side. At spreads near pick-em, whoever wins covers the game.

If you want to pick winners in the Final Four and National Championship games this Saturday and Monday, you’ll need to focus on the TEAMS rather than sweating line value.

Here’s a look at last year’s scores from this weekend:

Memphis (-2.5) beat UCLA 78-63
Kansas (+3.5) beat North Carolina 84-66
Kansas (+2) beat Memphis 75-68

And, the year before:

Ohio State (+1) beat Georgetown 67-60
Florida (-3) beat UCLA 76-66
Florida (-4) beat Ohio State 84-75

Whenever the elite in any sport get together, the Vegas pointspreads are going to be fairly close to even on most occasions! The nature of basketball is that a team that imposes its will on a game will be in position to get a lead and protect it as long as they make free throws. If they can’t make late free throws, well, they’ll lose outright the way Memphis did to Kansas in last year’s championship game.

With this in mind, let’s go over the factors we should be handicapping in this weekend’s games. I’ll start with the obvious ones:

Who can impose its will on the game? Which team in each matchup has the horses to force their preferred tempo for 40-minutes? If both teams prefer the same type of tempo, which team has the higher upside in that style? This is arguably the most fundamental element of college basketball handicapping these days, and many analysts don’t even consider it. They’re looking at pointspread records, money movement, dog and favorite histories. Focus on the GAME and figure out who’s going to drive the flow.

Can that team make free throws with a lead? Simple question. By now you have plenty of examples from this season to study as well. Everyone still alive has won a lot of games this year, and is undefeated through the tournament obviously. How have they done from the line in the last few minutes? How did they perform with leads in their conference tournaments? If it’s a veteran team, how did they perform LAST year in the Big Dance in this key area?

Which team has the superior defense? It’s very hard to come-from-behind if you’re facing a unit that’s tough inside and guards the perimeter well. This isn’t the regular season where you can fall behind an inferior team and bail yourself out with a strong finish. It’s difficult to have a strong finish against a good defense. Look at shooting percentages allowed, two-point shooting percentages allowed, points allowed per game, points allowed per possession, and defensive performances in BIG games for guidance here. You’ll want to back teams with the defensive edge, particularly if you see they’re going to control the game and make their free throws. That’s “game of the year” material if you can find those three elements all working together in harmony.

Which team has the superior ballhandling? This area is often overlooked because it’s hard for TV announcers to focus on something that’s “not” happening. When a team isn’t making turnovers, you don’t notice because it seems like they’re running their normal offense. Well, it takes maturity, poise, and talent from your ballhandlers to look normal! Study turnover data from the NCAA tournament and each team’s conference tournament to get a read on guard play. One reason we see so many blowouts in the later rounds of college basketball tournaments is that the trailing team pressures themselves into turnovers and bad shots when trying to rally against a strong defense.

To a degree, all the survivors are strong in these areas already, or they wouldn’t still be playing for the trophy! It’s your job now to differentiate amongst the survivors in these vital departments. It can be done. Frankly, it HAS to be done if you want to get your money in on the right teams.