Final Four Picks & Predictions for Saturday, April 2, 2011
By Nate Steele
(The Spread) – Despite nearly winning a national title a year ago, few people gave credence at the start of the 2011 NCAA Tournament that Butler had a chance to get back to the Final Four and possibly win its coveted national championship.
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Eighth-seeded Butler will face a team in the semifinals whose story somewhat resembles its own in 11th seed Virginia Commonwealth, playing in its first-ever Final Four and exceeded almost everyone's expectations including probably those of fiery coach Shaka Smart.
Oddsmakers from online sports book Bodog.com have made Butler a 2.5-point favorite in the matchup. The over/under total for this game is currently sitting at 134 points.
The experience Butler has coming into this contest starts with its two leading scorers in forward Matt Howard (16.7 points per game) and guard Shelvin Mack (15.9 ppg). Virginia Commonwealth will turn to power forward Jamie Skeen quite a bit after he racked up 26 points against Kansas, but look for Howard and company to play a physical game and disrupt what Skeen has to offer.
Although the Rams have four seniors who have all played a monumental role in getting VCU to this stage, their experience might not be enough to overcome the bright lights of the Final Four. Howard and Mack are proven winners in big games, making it hard to go against them in a Final Four setting. Imagine just how good Butler could be had Gordon Heyward, the star of last year's Butler squad, remained in school.
Final Four Free Pick: When you look at these teams from an offensive perspective, perhaps Virginia Commonwealth is a bit stronger but Butler is usually efficient and scores enough points to get the job done. The difference for me comes on the defensive end, where Butler runs circles around the Rams in terms of ability. While VCU has been much improved in stopping foes lately, there is plenty of reason why it is a team that barely made the tournament and it starts with defense. Look for the down and dirty defense of the Bulldogs to frustrate the Rams, while Butler will not be intimidated by the VCU defense in the slightest. Give the 2.5 points and take Butler.
FINAL FOUR FREE PICK: BUTLER -2.5