Final Four Trends
By Marc Lawrence
It’s onward to Indianapolis for the Final Four games. To put the wraps on the 2010 NCAA Tournament, listed below are some interesting trends and angles to consider before our Fab Four takes a final spin in Circle City this weekend.
All results listed below are ATS (Against The Spread) since 1991 unless noted otherwise.
Enjoy…
FINAL 4 ROUND NOTES
# #1 Seeds that are 4-0 ATS in this tourney are 2-4 SU and 1-5 ATS (Duke)
# #2 Seeds are 1-7 ATS off a DD ATS win (West Virginia)
# Teams off BB SU dog wins are 2-8 ATS (Butler)
# ACC teams are 4-2 SU and 5-1 ATS since 2002 (Duke)
# Big East teams are 0-3 ATS since 2004 (West Virginia)
# Teams with the greater win percentage are 8-2 ATS L5Y (Butler and Duke)
# Returnees from last year in this round are 11-4 SU and 10-5 ATS (Michigan St)
CHAMPIONSHIP NOTES
# #1 Seed favs are 6-1 ATS
# #2 Seeds are 0-5 ATS off an ATS win
# #5 or worse Seeds are 0-3 SU & ATS
# Favorites of 5 pts in the Final 4 round are 4-1 ATS
# Teams with a win percentage of .810 pts off a SU dog win are 1-5 ATS
# Big East teams are 3-0 ATS
# ACC teams are 9-2 ATS
# Big 10 teams are 1-6 ATS
COACH ME UP
# Butler’s Brad Stevens: 3-0 SU and 2-1 ATS as an NCAA tourney favorite… 5-2 SU and 5-1-1 ATS versus Big 10 opponents… 41-2 SU at home, including 3-0 SU and 2-0-1 ATS versus Big 10 opponents.
# Duke’s Mike Krzyzewski: 39-4 SU versus .750 or less opponents and 14-11 SU versus greater than .750 foes, including 7-12-1 ATS as a favorite in this tourney… 5-1 SU and 4-2 in Final Four games and 3-2 SU and 4-1 ATS in NCAA championship games.
# Michigan State’s Tom Izzo: 10-0 SU and 6-4 ATS versus Horizon League competition… 21-5 ATS versus opponent off SU and ATS win in this tourney… 2-3 SU and 3-2 ATS in Final Four and 1-1 SU and ATS in championship games in this event.
# West Virginia’s Bob Huggins: 9-7 SU and ATS versus ACC opposition, including 3-1 SU and ATS in this tourney… 1-5 ATS as a dog in this tourney… 18-3 SU and 15-5-1 ATS versus .718 or less opponents –but- 8-13 SU and 6-15 ATS versus .724 or greater foes in this tourney.
There you have it, trends and notes of teams and coaches for the NCAA Final Four and out games played the last 20 years. I hope you’ve enjoyed the tournament as much as I have. I’ll return during the NBA playoffs with an overview of some Good, Bad, and downright Ugly stats and trends. Until then, enjoy the rest of the ‘Dance’.
MICHIGAN STATE vs. BUTLER
Michigan State is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games
Michigan State is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games
Butler is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
Butler is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
WEST VIRGINIA vs. DUKE
West Virginia is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
West Virginia is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
Duke is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
Duke is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
MICHIGAN ST vs. BUTLER
MICHIGAN ST: 29-15 ATS in NCAA Tournament
BUTLER: 8-0 Over on neutral court if the total is 129.5 or less
W VIRGINIA vs. DUKE
W VIRGINIA: 16-2 ATS in NCAA Tournament
DUKE: 12-2 Over on neutral court if the total is 130 to 139.5
MICHIGAN ST (28 - 8) vs. BUTLER (32 - 4)
Top Trends for this game.
MICHIGAN ST is 8-15 ATS (-8.5 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
BUTLER is 89-57 ATS (+26.3 Units) in non-conference games since 1997.
BUTLER is 119-86 ATS (+24.4 Units) after allowing 60 points or less since 1997.
MICHIGAN ST is 19-8 ATS (+10.2 Units) in all neutral court games over the last 3 seasons.
MICHIGAN ST is 19-8 ATS (+10.2 Units) when playing on a neutral court over the last 3 seasons.
MICHIGAN ST is 29-15 ATS (+12.5 Units) in a NCAA tournament games since 1997.
Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
W VIRGINIA (31 - 6) vs. DUKE (33 - 5)
Top Trends for this game.
DUKE is 22-14 ATS (+6.6 Units) in all games this season.
DUKE is 22-14 ATS (+6.6 Units) in all lined games this season.
DUKE is 22-14 ATS (+6.6 Units) as a favorite this season.
DUKE is 13-5 ATS (+7.5 Units) after a non-conference game this season.
DUKE is 8-2 ATS (+5.8 Units) in road games in non-conference games this season.
W VIRGINIA is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) in road games against ACC opponents since 1997.
W VIRGINIA is 82-55 ATS (+21.5 Units) in non-conference games since 1997.
W VIRGINIA is 39-23 ATS (+13.7 Units) in road games in all tournament games since 1997.
W VIRGINIA is 16-2 ATS (+13.8 Units) in a NCAA tournament games since 1997.
Head-to-Head Series History
W VIRGINIA is 1-0 against the spread versus DUKE over the last 3 seasons
W VIRGINIA is 1-0 straight up against DUKE over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons