Final Four Trends

LOUISVILLE vs. KENTUCKY
LOUISVILLE: 8-0 ATS on neutral court
KENTUCKY: 9-1 Under on neutral floor if total is 130 to 139.5

OHIO STATE vs. KANSAS
OHIO STATE: 18-7 ATS Away w/ same season revenge
KANSAS: 6-13 ATS off double digit win

Final Four Angles
By Marc Lawrence
VegasInsider.com

It's onward to New Orleans for the Final Four games. To put the wraps on the 2012 NCAA Tournament, listed below are some interesting trends and angles to as our Fab Four heads off to Bourbon Street this weekend.

All results listed below are ATS (Against the Spread) and most recent since 1991 unless noted otherwise. Enjoy…

NCAA FINAL 4 ROUND NOTES

#1 Seed favs 5 > pts are 4-0 ATS
#2 Seeds are 2-8 ATS off a DD ATS win
#4 Seeds are 0-4 ATS
Favs 4 > pts who scored 80 > pts in Elite 8 round are 1-6 ATS
Teams off BB SU dog wins are 2-8 ATS
Teams who are 3-0 SU & ATS last 3 games are 5-17 ATS
Teams with Revenge are 2-8 ATS
Dogs off BB DD SU wins are 1-5 ATS
ACC teams are 6-1 ATS
Big 12 teams are 1-4 ATS
Big 10 teams are 2-5 SU & ATS

NCAA CHAMPIONSHIP GAME NOTES

#1 Seed favs are 6-2 ATS
#2 Seeds are 1-5 ATS off a SUATS win
#4 Seeds are 2-0 ATS
Favorites of 5 pts in the Final 4 round are 4-1 ATS
Teams with a win percentage of .810 2 pts who allowed 60 > pts in the Final 4 round are 1-6 ATS
Dogs of 3 > pts off a SU dog win are 1-5 ATS
Big East teams are 4-0 ATS
SEC teams are 3-1 ATS
ACC teams are 9-3 ATS
Big 10 teams are 1-6 ATS

COACH ME UP

Kansas' Bill Self is:

206-179-12 as a favorite and 31-25-1 ATS as a dog
32-12 SU and 26-18-1 ATS in NCAA tournament
9-4 SU and 5-8 ATS vs Big East
46-18 SU and 32-30-2 ATS vs Big 10
10-4 SU and 8-6 ATS vs SEC
1-1 SU and ATS vs Calipari
0-1 SU and ATS vs Matta
0-1 SU and ATS vs Pitino

Kentucky's John Calipari is:

252-225-14 ATS as a favorite and 54-26-1 ATS as a dog
36-13 SU and 26-22-1 ATS in NCAA tournament
25-9 SU and 17-16-1 ATS vs Big East
9-5 SU and 8-6 ATS vs Big 10
9-6 SU and ATS vs Big 12
0-1 SU and ATS vs Matta
8-8 SU and 12-4 ATS vs Pitino
1-1 SU and ATS vs Self

Louisville's Rick Pitino is:

259-234-13 ATS as a favorite and 46-33-1 ATS as a dog
44-13 SU and 33-21-3 ATS in NCAA tournament
16-11 SU and 11-16 ATS vs Big 10
2-1 SU and 1-0-1 ATS vs Big 12
144-31 SU and 96-84-4 ATS vs SEC
8-8 SU and 4-12 ATS vs Calipari
0-1 SU and ATS vs Matta
0-1 SU and ATS vs Self

Ohio State's Thad Matta is:

115-112-9 ATS as a favorite and 44-44-1 ATS as a dog
20-9 SU and 15-13-1 ATS in NCAA tournament
6-3 SU and ATS vs Big East
4-5 SU and 3-6 ATS vs Big 12
11-9 SU and 7-13 ATS vs SEC
1-1 SU and ATS vs Calipari
1-0 SU and ATS vs Pitino
0-1 SU and ATS vs Self

There you have it, trends and notes of teams and coaches for the NCAA Final Four and out games played the last 21 years.

NCAA Basketball Trends & Angles

Well we have reached the Final Four of the NCAA Basketball Tournament in New Orleans this upcoming weekend. Was it just us or did this tournament fly by more quickly than usual?

Our last two Trends & Angles were full of seeding trends for each upcoming round of the tournament that week, as we went back and analyzed how each specific seed did on a round-by-round basis against the spread since 2001. We will again do the same thing in this week's column, presenting the seeding trends from the last 11 tournaments for the Final Four and the National Championship Game.

However, we have only three seeds to discuss, as the Final Four is comprised of a one-seed (Kentucky), a couple of two-seeds (Ohio State and Kansas) and a four-seed. Therefore, before we get to that seeding discussion, we begin with a quick overview of how well the favorites have done in these last two rounds.

One again, all quoted ATS records in this piece are for the last 11 NCAA Tournaments since the 2001 tournament (following the 2000-01 season), including the "chalk" section.
Chalk has prevailed: People obviously love betting the NCAA Tournament from start to finish, but Final Four weekend easily draws the heaviest volume per game of the entre tournament. Therefore, in the sportsbooks' ideal worlds, this is one weekend where they would prefer that underdogs did as well as they did in the earlier rounds of the tournament. Unfortunately for the sportsbooks and luckily for the bettors, that has simply not been the case.

Much to the chagrin of bookmakers world-wide, the favorites have ruled the roost in the last two rounds over the past 11 years. The chalk is 13-9, 59.1 percent ATS in the Final Four round since 2001, although it did split last season with Butler covering vs. VCU but Kentucky falling as small favorites to Connecticut. Then again, Connecticut was a popular underdog play, so it is not as if the books cleaned up with that particular dog winning.

The favorites have then gone on to go a scorching 8-3 ATS in the National Championship Game, including Connecticut's covering win last season over the repeat national runners-up from Butler. Butler was one of the three underdogs to cover in the Finals the last 11 years, doing so vs. Duke in 2010. The other two covering underdogs both won outright, with those being Kansas over Memphis in 2008 and Syracuse over Kansas in 2003. It is interesting that Kansas was on both ends of that spectrum, and it now turns up as an underdog in the Final Four this season.

So all told, the favorites had a combined record of 21-12, 63.6 percent ATS over the last two rounds since 2001. Will the success of the chalk continue with Kentucky and Ohio State on Saturday?

And now we move on to the seeds.

One-seeds: A grand total of 17 one-seeds have reached the Final Four since 2001, and these teams went 10-7 straight up and a nice 11-6 ATS in this round. Note that there were remarkably no top seeds in the Final Four last season, so that total of 17 remained unchanged. Also note that three of the Final Four matchups pitted two one-seeds against each other, so in games pitting one-seeds against lower seeds, the top seeds went 7-4 straight up and a sparkling 8-3 ATS. That bodes well for the lone one-seed that made it this far this season, the Kentucky Wildcats, as they are favored over the fourth-seeded Louisville Cardinals. If you are wondering how the ATS record of the one-seeds (8-3) is better than the 7-4 straight up mark vs. lower seeds, it is because three one-seeds were actually underdogs in those games in the Final Four round the last 11 seasons, and the top-seeds went 2-1 both straight up and ATS.

As for the 10 one-seeds that reached the National Championship Game, they went 7-3 straight up and 6-4 ATS, including three title games where two one-seeds faced each other, which cannot happen this season. One-seeds that have faced lower seeds in the Championship Game are a perfect 4-0 straight up the last 11 years and 3-1 ATS, with the only non-cover being by Duke as mentioned earlier vs. Butler two years ago.

Two-seeds: Amazingly, no two-seeds advanced to the Final Four last season either, so these numbers also remain unchanged from a year ago. A total of 10 two-seeds reached the Final Four since 2001, and those teams went 5-5 straight up and 6-4 ATS. Interestingly, the meeting between Ohio State and Kansas on Saturday marks the first time that two-seeds have opposed each other since the beginning of this study. Thus, we sadly have nothing to present from a seeding perspective regarding that game, although there is always the aforementioned chalk angle to fall back on favoring Ohio State, though that is unrelated to seeding.

The two-seeds that advanced to the National Championship Game have not fared well at all, going just 1-4 both straight up and ATS since 2001, and that will certainly come into play this season with a two-seed assured a spot in the Final. The 2004 Connecticut Huskies were the only two-seed to be crowned National Champions, doing so vs. third-seeded Georgia Tech. Of the four losses by the two-seeds in the Finals, two came vs. one-seeds, which could be significant with Kentucky possibly lurking, and two came vs. three-seeds, which is irrelevant this season.

Four-seeds: Louisville is attempting to become the first four-seed to reach the National Championship game over our study period. Last year, Kentucky was only the third four-seed to reach the Final Four over the last 11 tournaments, and all three have now lost both straight up and ATS. One of the other four-seeded victims was the 2005 Louisville team, which lost by 15 points to Illinois. The other four-seed to reach the Final Four but go no further was LSU in 2006, which lost by 14 points to UCLA.