Five for Four Spots
By Joe Nelson
College basketball certainly deserves more attention right now but the Eastern Conference appears to be lining up for an excellent playoff chase, particularly in the bottom half of the seeding. Five teams are currently separated by just three games in the standings playing for the final four spots in the Eastern Conference playoffs. As usual it does not take a record far above .500 to make the playoffs in the East but that will not mean that these teams will not be threats in the playoffs.
Keep in mind that although these teams may not be considered title contenders they can still become serious threats in the playoffs from both S/U and ATS perspectives. Three of the eight first round series in the Eastern Conference over the past two years have gone to seven games with Atlanta and Miami in a tough #4/5 match-up last season, and Boston needing seven games each of the last two years against the Bulls and the Hawks respectively, despite playing as a #2 seed last season and a #1 seed in 2008. The recent fade for the Celtics will also make Boston an attractive first round opponent for whichever of these five teams will face them.
Milwaukee Bucks: The Bucks earned some positive attention early in the season, mainly for some of the big numbers put up by rookie Brandon Jennings. While Jennings was carrying the load for Milwaukee the team showed flashes of success but ultimately was not consistent enough to be considered a viable playoff threat. A lot has changed in the last month however as the Bucks are now one of the most dangerous teams in the NBA. The patience with the Scott Skiles defensive system, the rise of Andrew Bogut as an elite center, and the addition John Salmons are three big reasons why Milwaukee is the one team that the top seeds will not want to face in the opening round.
In the last 20 games the Bucks are 16-4, and they have been even better on the ATS numbers for those that have caught on to how well this team is playing. The schedule has been favorable in this stretch as only six wins have come against winning teams, and four of those wins came against teams that are just barely over .500 but what has been impressive is an 8-2 road record in that span. Home wins last week against Cleveland (albeit without James) and Boston helped to legitimize the run. Milwaukee certainly has the momentum to be considered the favorite of this group to take the #5 spot or even a long shot to move up and the schedule ahead should be reasonable. Eleven of the remaining 19 games are in Milwaukee where the Bucks are 21-9. Eleven games are against winning teams however including a very tough final three games that could potentially be playoff series previews, playing Boston twice surrounding the final home game with Atlanta.
Toronto Raptors: A month ago the Raptors looked like the unquestioned #5 team in the East and a team that might even push to break the top four. It has been a rough stretch for Toronto however, losing seven of the last eight games and looking like a team that could slide further. The schedule has been very tough in this span for the Raptors but the play has not led to a lot of optimism about this team improving down the stretch. The Raptors did not make any moves to improve the team at the trade deadline and with the pending departure of Chris Bosh after the season, things are not looking up for this franchise even though there was some promise early in the year. Former top pick Andrea Bargnani has shown significant improvement and rookie DeMar DeRozan has played capably but this team looks like a likely candidate to fall out of the playoff picture.
There may be hope for the Raptors in the schedule. Toronto has been a horrible road team with a 10-21 S/U mark but there are only ten remaining road games on the schedule and half of them come against weak competition. The Raptors also close the season with six of the final nine games against losing teams so a strong finish in a race that could be tight should be available for Toronto. While this team may look like a sinking ship, Toronto closed last season with solid results down the stretch through a very tough schedule.
Charlotte Bobcats: After a rough month of February where the Bobcats went 4-7, Charlotte seems to be back on track with four consecutive wins, including impressive wins over Los Angeles and Miami. Charlotte has been active with personnel moves this season, acquiring Stephen Jackson and Tyrus Thomas to boost the scoring production and both have shown improved numbers since the move. Charlotte is one of the lowest scoring teams in the NBA, averaging just over 94 points per game but the Bobcats also have allowed the fewest points per game in the entire NBA under Coach Larry Brown.
Charlotte would make the playoffs if the season ended today, something that has rarely been said during the brief franchise existence. Charlotte will have to weather a difficult stretch of road games in the middle of March but will also have a five-game home stand at the end of the month featuring three losing teams and the two teams currently just ahead of the Bobcats fighting for the #5 spot. The Bobcats will play very few games against the elite teams down the stretch and this should be a schedule that allows the Bobcats to maintain playoff positioning.
Miami Heat: The Heat have been incredibly streaky this season and the playoff spot for Miami will likely depend on which type of streak is working late in the season. Miami has a superstar in Dwyane Wade that is capable of carrying his team in the playoffs but getting there will not be easy. The Heat added Rafer Alston at the trade deadline but did not complete a bigger move to make a more significant push. 2nd year player Michael Beasley has emerged as a quality contributor and this team has decent depth with a nice mix of veterans and young players but this team has had two losing streaks of at least four games in the last six weeks. Miami has recently won four of the past five to get back into the temporary playoff picture however.
Based just on scheduling Miami looks like a clear lock to make the playoffs assuming the team wins the games they should win. While eight of the final twelve games will be on the road, Miami only has five remaining games against teams that have winning records. Four of those five games will be at home so the Heat has the potential to finish with a really strong record down the stretch. Miami will have several games against some of the worst teams in the league and the Heat could enter the playoffs with momentum, though be aware it may be phony momentum built by a weak closing schedule.
Chicago Bulls: The Bulls are currently the odd team out in the playoff race, sitting a game below .500. The Bulls are riding a five game losing streak and although the last four losses all have come at home, the competition has been stiff. Statistically the near .500 record should be no surprise as the Bulls are near the dead center in the league in many categories. This is a team that has to feel like a serious disappointment however considering the great playoff effort last season, taking Boston to seven games. The Bulls basically folded at the all star break, giving up John Salmons and picking up Hakim Warrick and Ronald Murray rather than going for a bigger move to seriously boost the team. Still this is team that can make the playoffs on the strength of 2nd year player Derrick Rose and a still solid supporting cast.
Unless Toronto continues to fade the Bulls are probably the team that misses the playoffs in this group. The remaining schedule is tough with the next five all against playoff contenders including four in a row on the road. The year closes with six of the final seven games against winning teams as well. Chicago only has five remaining games against teams that currently have losing records and only one of those games is at home so things may get worse before they get better for the Bulls, a team that should have a more exciting off-season than postseason.