Follow ACC, Fade Big Ten Early in College Hoops
Written by LT Profits
We have reached another NCAA Basketball season, which makes us very excited as college hoops has always been our most profitable sport.
Now many gamblers stay away in the first couple of weeks of each college hoop season as thing sort themselves out, but just as with every other sport, the early season and the month of November in particular are when the lines are the softest. We feel that players that sit things out early are missing some great opportunities, as with some homework, November is the month when the books are the most vulnerable.
For starters, we have analyzed how each conference has done during the month of November since the 2000-01 season, and we have found that the perennially powerful ACC is a good conference to follow. Bear in mind that this does not mean that the ACC is the best conference, as we no loner feel that is the case.
What is does mean is that the conference does an excellent job of scheduling early non-conference opponents that are very beatable. Besides the ACC, we also found a diamond in the rough in the Horizon League, which has also flourished in November. Sure, most of that success has been by Butler, but the conference also has other up-and-coming schools that have done well out of conference in recent years.
On the opposite end of the spectrum, we have the Big Ten. This is traditionally the most overrated conference in the land, and the early non-conference results since 2000 to nothing but to help solidify that argument.
Let us now take a closer look at the November performances of these three conferences.
ACC
The ACC is 161-145-3, 53.1 percent against the spread in all November games since 2000. That in itself is not enough to turn a profit, but consider that ACC favorites are 135-111-2, 54.9 percent, and that is certainly enough to make some nice coin.
Now last season was a down year for the ACC in general, as North Carolina turned out to be the only team in the conference to make a deep run in the NCAA Tournament, Still, even in a down year, the conference managed to go a cumulative 36-22-1, 62.1 percent during the month of November. This is one conference where you need not be afraid to lay points early on.
HORIZON
This is certainly a case where the Butler did it! Butler has been the poster child for the Horizon League for years, going an unbelievable 22-5, 81.5 percent ATS in the month of November since 2000. They are no doubt the primary reason for the 112-90-2, 55.4 percent overall ATS mark for the conference during this time frame.
The said, some other teams emerged last season to make this a much deeper conference. Cleveland State, Detroit, Wright State and Youngstown State went a combined 11-3 ATS last November. Furthermore, all Horizon home teams are 52-34, 60.5 percent ATS at home since 2000, including 14-8, 63.6 percent as home underdogs.
BIG TEN
The Big Ten has been the best early season fade among the so-called power conferences.
The conference is just 135-161-3 ATS overall in November since 2000 for a nice 54.4 percent fade percentage, which is a very good betting angle over that sized of a sampling. Furthermore, Big Ten road favorites have gone a miserable 10-21, 32.3 ATS.
You just know this overrated conference will have some road favorites in non-conference play this month, so that should set up some more prime fading opportunities.